If this seems faintly familiar it’s because I did the same piece earlier this year. But that was in March, at the beginning of the season and we’re now (still) in August, and well past the end of the season, in one of the slowest months of the year.
**the number of homes sold represents sales for the last 6 months.
Let’s start with a classic, the ever popular Shadow Hills. Popular because of its excellent foothills location, larger lots with a variety of home sizes and styles and quiet meandering and mostly level streets that encourage both kids and grownups to gather, walk and bike.
And prices that aren’t off the charts. Plus it’s in District 16. Most of the homes were built in the 1980s and 90’s with a handful in the 2000’s.
9 homes for sale ($380,000 to $699,000) @ avg/median - $540,222/$534,000
3 in contract (($305,000 to $545,000) @ avg/median - $445,000/$485,000
17 sold ($350,000 to $605,000) @ avg/median - $490,706/$509,000
With just a 3 month supply of homes for sale and sale prices very much in sync with list prices SH is the poster child for a flourishing sellers market. In my March report it was a very different story in SH – I concluded - a heavy load of 12 months inventory – good for buyers, difficult for sellers.
And for something a little different, the Villages 2, 4 and 5 at the Villages of La Paloma. Also a very popular spot, though with newer homes (built 2002 – 2005) on smaller lots and with a different clientele than Shadow Hills. More part timers, snow birds, empty nesters, fewer year round families with kids.
3 for sale ($475,000 to $699,000) @ avg/median - $557,833/$499,500
2 in contract ($485,000, $549,000) @ avg/median - $517,000/$517,000
6 sold ($385,000 to $530,000) @ $490,500/$510,250
A 3 month supply of homes for sale = a sellers market for the Villages, with list and sold prices in the same ballpark. And also a turnaround from where things were in March.
Foothills Clusters, sorta like Shadow Hills, but smaller homes on smaller lots at lower prices, with a wonderful high-up in the foothills location and District 16 schools. Homes built from 1970 to early 90’s.
3 for sale ($250,000 to $334,000) @ $303,000/$325,000
3 in contract ($262,500 to $364,000) @ $308,500/$299,000
13 sold ($220,000 to $399,500) @ $305,923/$285,000
With demand so high and supply so low - there is a 1 month supply of homes for sale - FC is a lean and mean sellers market. 5 of the homes sold went for list price or higher. Overall they sold for 98.88% of list price. But FC was also doing very well (with 6 months inventory) back in March when I said - ‘This is the market that’s driving the foothills real estate bus. HONK HONK!! ‘
Sin Vacas, guard gated, middle to upper end $$$, high in the foothills, views, homes built from 1980 thru the day before yesterday.
6 for sale ($585,000 to $1,499,000) @ $887,917/$834,250
0 in contract
7 sold ($650,000 to $1,275,000) @ $791,429/$725,000
Even with its upper middle to upper-end price range Sin Vacas is selling very well – with just a 5 month supply of homes for sale.
Skyline Bel Air, great central foothills location, location …with buyers renovating older homes and sometimes flipping them – and with most homes built in the 60’s and 70’s there’s both a need to renovate and an ample supply of older homes to do so.
7 for sale ($325,000 to $799,000) @ $575,557/$499,000
2 in contract ($485,000, $658,500) @ $571,750/$571,750
11 sold ($340,000 to $615,000) @ $435,309/$421,000
A lean 4 month supply of homes. But the list and sold price numbers are way out of whack. Why. Because the 3 highest priced listings (mid to high $700’s) are pushing the price envelope for Skyline Bel Air and of course upping the avg/median. It’s not unheard of to sell in the $700’s in SBA – 6 sellers have managed to do so sine 2006 – but that was 6 out of 154 homes sold. And 4 of the 6 sold in either 2006 or in pre-Lehman 08, and only 2 since then. That’s not to put a damper on SBA, I’ve a cheer leader for it since long before it started to turn around in 2012. It’s just a fact.
Alta Vista, upper middle to upper $$$, east foothills location, most homes built in the 90’s to 2000’s, styles run from SW contemporary to SW contemporary to Mediterranean to Sante Fe. District 16 schools and popular with families,
4 for sale ($579,000 to $995,000) @ $696,750/$606,500
1 in contract at $795,000
7 sold ($565,000 to $1,100,000) @ $858,857/$973,000
For a squeaky tight 3.5 month supply of homes for sale. Back in March the supply was tipping past 9 months.
Cimarron, lower to upper middle, east foothills location, homes built from the late 70’s into the 90’s. District 16 schools.
9 for sale ($365,000 to $735,000 then 1 @ $1,150,000) @ $665,100/$629,000
0 in contract
8 sold ($265,000 to $830,000) @ $471,091/$452,887
With almost a 7 month supply of homes Cim is straddling the edge between a balanced market and the beginnings of a buyers market. And with nothing in contract and the gapping gap between list and sold prices, right now it’s a crap shoot.
So, you may be wondering, with all these subdivisions doing so well and homes selling and the months supply of homes (with the exception of Cimarron) down below 6 months, it appears the market is going gangbusters. And it is, in the aforementioned subdivisions. But we’ve just begun to scratch the surface. Stay tuned. The plot is bound to thicken.
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