TheTucsonFoothills

more to choose from in Pima Canyon

7358 N Mystic Canyon Drive - which was listed for a short time in 2004 & 2005 for $1,725,000 and $1,850,000, respectively, and didn’t sell - is back on the market today asking $1,395,000 ($324/sf).

This makes it 17 for sale in PC, with 8 sold since Jan 1 (though 7 of the 8 sold between January & May) and with 4 homes currently in contract. Though 2 of the 4 are distress sales.  

7358 N Mystic Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Needless to say, it is still very much a buyers market in PC

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a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market, 9/29/11

There are 357 single family homes for sale in the Foothills today,
44 sold in the last 30 days and at the moment 77 are in contract.

here it is broken down by price range,

Price	# for sale	# sold	# in contract
$0 – $599	224	36	56
$600 – $999	67	4	13
$1.0 to $1.499	36	4	*6
$1.5 – $1.999	14	0	1
$2.0 & up	16	0	**1
	357	44	77

*(3 are distress sales)  **(a short sale)

Months of inventory (MOI) are as follows;
foothills overall is 8 months (357 ÷ 44 = 8.1) which is up from last month (lower is  better)

But as usual, looked at by price range it’s a very different story.

$0 – $599 is 6.2 MOI (very good but also up a tad from last month)

$600 – $999 is 16.7 MOI (way up from last month)

$1.0 – $1.499 is 9 MOI (way down from last month)

$1.5 – $1.999 with no sales and therefore no way to measure MOI, let’s just say it’s going to take a while,

$2.0 & up, ditto

We’re continuing to see the effects of the market slowdown that began in early August, some of which we expected – because August is August and it’s always slow – and some of which we didn’t, because we didn’t see the economic turmoil/uncertainty/stock market tumble/volatility that came roaring along in early August until it hit us over the head. And it continues to dampen home sales.

For comparison here’s Last Month’s numbers,

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you can ask whatever you want

In the old foothills 5151 N Calle Ladero sold today after 3 years. hip-hip

Previously, it sold in June 2005 for $2,200,000 with 5.51 acres. And 3 years later,
in August 08 (mind you), it was listed for $2,590,000, but, get this, with just 1.19 acres. The new math.

But that didn’t add up. So Calle Ladero spent the next 3 years with one price cut after another and along the way became a short sale and finally sold today for $1,255,000 ($154/sf) with 1.19 acres. hoorah

Back in 08 I had a client - a good client who I’d done business with in the past and who was also a no nonsense cash buyer - who was interested in this house. But no matter how we tried we couldn’t figure out how, after 2 years in a down market and now with 4 fewer acres, it could be worth $390,000 more than they paid in 05. Apparently no else could either.

5151 N Calle Ladero Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

(also, because of the lay of the land, in my opinion, and my client agreed, it made no sense to buy it without the other 4 adjoining acres – though, apparently, todays buyers did not feel that way)

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it’s all the rage,

the price cutting phenomenon that swept thru the Canyons recently, appears to have now jumped the fence to Pima Canyon

2304 E Sentry Ridge Court, listed at $4,250,000 today dropped to $3,250,000

The question is, will this, like the raft of price cutting we saw in the Canyons,
catch on in Pima Canyon

We’ll have to wait and see, but a couple of weeks ago I did say, ‘… with so little activity at the upper end of the foothills real estate market I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slew of high end price reductions. Actually, I’ll be surprised if we don’t.

and I’m stickin to it. So who’s next,

2304 E Sentry Ridge Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

STOP THE PRESSES, 
1714 E Barrel Cactus is next, that’s who. Right on the heels of reporting the million $$ price cut above on Sentry Ridge, the owners of  1714 E Barrel Cactus Court (just up the street in PC and listed for $3.3) kicked-in $300 thou bringing it down to an even $3,000,000.
1714 E Barrel Cactus Court , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

ah, now who’s next?

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7 homes 7 price cuts

That’s up in the Canyons and it’s (suddenly) all happened in the last 30 days.
And I know, I know, it’s getting monotonous. But what can I do, there’s been another big price cut up there today - 7557 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped from  $4,500,000 to $3,250,000. You can’t ignore that, eh. It was listed last October for $5,500,000 and dropped to $4,500,000 this February.

and if you’re keeping score, here’s the lineup;

3657 E Canyon Wind Place dropped $2,995,000 to $2,795,000 on 8/23
(Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

7417 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped $3,495,000 to $2,995,000 on 9/10 (Long Realty)

7431 N Secret Canyon Dr dropped $5,000,000 to $3,950,000 also on 9/10 (Long Realty)

7203 N Cloud Canyon Place dropped $1,990,000 to $1,500,000 on 9/14 (Long Realty)

7582 N Secret Canyon Drive  dropped $9,995,000 to $7,900,000 on 9/21 (Long Realty)

7391 N Finger Rock Place dropped $2,995,000 to $2,795,000 on 9/24
(Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

7557 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped $4,500,000 to $3,250,000 today 9/26
(Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

If I added correctly that’s $5,785,000 in price cuts in the last 30 days, though 6 of the 7 were in the last 16 days. What gives up in the Canyons. Why this sudden urge & surge of price cutting. I hope it was something I said.

7 homes in the Canyons

previously on the Canyons > it’s contagious, another big price cut in the Canyons

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feeling lucky

@ $400/sf or more, consider this;
There are 21 homes listed for sale in the Foothills at $400/sf or more. And while that may not sound like so so many, also consider this;

So far this year just 1 home listed at $400/sf has sold. And none are in contract.

And last year wasn’t so good for $400/sf listings either, just 2 sold last year.
In the spring/summer of 09 - when we thought the worst of it was over - 6 sold.
But back in the good ole days – 15 sold in 08 (that’s, of course, in just the first 8 months of 08 too), 17 sold in 07 and 27 flew off the shelf in 2006. But those days are long gone. At least for the foreseeable future.

These days, with just 1 sold this year & 21 listed for sale, unless things improve drastically (and that does not appear to be in the cards right now) theoretically, it would take about 189 months to sell all 21 homes. Give or take, that’s 16 years.

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prices in Pinnacle Ridge take a big hit

6325 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive found a buyer in just 32 days in 2006 and sold for $1,100,000 ($247/sf). 

And one year later it was listed for $949,000, then dropped to $899,999, and still no go – while somewhere along the way it became a foreclosure - then dropped to $799,900 and on down until it reached $630,000 ($142/sf) earlier this month and, bingo, it went to contract today as a foreclosure.

6325 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

I’m guessing that with all the economic turmoil and uncertainty that this is a very good time to be negotiating on foreclosures. The banks are all too aware of the situation and are probably more eager than ever to unload this stuff. Just a guess.

However, lately, with more buyers interested in well priced foreclosures you are also more likely than ever to be up against other bidders.

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you can’t always get what you want

4085 N Black Rock Drive was first listed in January 2010 for $1,500,000 and went to contract today listed at $749,000. 4085 N Black Rock Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

This is on Sabino Mountain, which has seen 4 sales so far this year,
from $250,000 to $535,000, and where there are 8 homes for sale,
from $274,900 to $1,950,000.

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telling it like it is

The  Business section of today’s New York Times has an article on a new travel web site called Oyster.com that is a welcome change and I think is going to be a big hit. Their whole thing is that instead of relying on the overblown descriptions and retouched photos provided by the hotels promotional department and web sites, Oyster relies instead on 45 full-time reviewers who stay in hotels incognito and post their own reviews and photographs.

“Oyster is meant to be very simple, easy, straightforward and truthful, where what you see is what you get,” said Elie Seidman, chief executive of Oyster.
What a novel idea.

NYTimes.com
Selling Travel With Words, Not Images

And this is really cool, - a regular feature, Photo Fakeouts, contrasts promotional photos from hotels with photos taken from the same perspective by Oyster reviewers.

Check it out, I think the world is ready for this and Oyster is gonna kick some big time travel industry butt

how dumb is this

Have you run across this, 2 story houses that are listed and advertised as 1 story.
Yeah, really, like maybe you’ll walk in and not notice it’s a 2 story.
Or you’ll suddenly realize, come to think of it, I really do want a 2 story. Sure, it happens all the time. And talk about hedging, I saw a house advertised as a 1.5 story. And wouldn’t you know it, the staircase to the 2nd story, it is a 2 story, is the tallest and steepest staircase I’ve ever seen in Tucson. (2 story homes are much less popular here and much harder to sell than 1 story)

So when buyers who are only interested in a 1 story (and most are) walk into a 2 story, what do you think happens. Well, not only are they immediately unhappy and upset about being lied to and having wasted their time schlepping over to a 2 story, but they’re now asking themselves, since the seller and agent have seen fit to lie about the simplest of basic facts, what else they might be trying to hide. And that’s the end of that, all trust is gone, kaput, out the window.  Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Meanwhile they’ve completely ignored those buyers who are looking for a 2 story.

And none of this does much to boost the impression of Realtors® either. Aside from ones personal principles and ethics there are also MLS rules and Realtor® Association regulations that prohibit false advertising. And while the vast majority of Realtors® do care very much and are vigilant about doing the right thing, there are, apparently, a few that don’t.

it’s contagious, another big price cut in the Canyons

7582 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped  $2 million today, from $9,995,000 to $7,990,000, now way down from the $13,500,000 it started at two years ago.
7582 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

This is on top of three other big price cuts in the Canyons in just the last two weeks.

7431 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped from $5,000,000 to $3,950,000
7417 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped from $3,495,000 to $2,995,000
7203 N Cloud Canyon Place dropped from $1,990,000 to $1,500,000

for more on Canyons price cutting see > cutting to the chase in the Canyons

Who’s next,

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Tucson Foothills home buyers favor short sales & foreclosures by a wide margin

Short sale and foreclosures (distress sales) continue to go to contract & sell at disproportionately higher rates than non-distress homes – relative to the number available for sale. And it seems their popularity may also be on the rise.

You see, while distress sales represent just 12% of the homes listed for sale, they represent 47% of the homes in contract at the moment & 29% of the homes sold recently.
 
366 single family homes for sale in the foothills
12% are distress sales

79 homes in contract
47% are distress sales

34 homes sold last 30 days
29% are distress sales

 

and at a million $$ & up

68 homes for sale in the foothills
0% are distress sales (they’re all gone, for now anyway)

8 homes in contract
62% are distress sales

3 homes sold last 30 days
0% are distress sales
________________________________________________________________

So at 29% of all single family sales in the foothills, distress sales for this 30 day period are higher by about 10% & more than any other month this year.
And who knows, maybe it’s just a blip, we’ll see, but a few things occur to me as to why distress sales continue to be popular and maybe, at this time, even more popular than ever.

-the banks have gotten their act together and are now able to handle these transactions so that more often than not they actually close escrow in a reasonable amount of time, though that’s still in bankers time.

-buyers and Realtors have gotten familiar with distress sales and now approach them with much less trepidation than in the past

- right out of the gate distress sales are better priced these days than they were in the  past

- as a result of the poor economy and poor everything, distress sales are now more attractive than ever

- What else?

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one quick sale

5201 N CIRCULO SOBRIO - a new home that is under construction in Cat 10 – showed up as a new listing yesterday and as SOLD listing today – for list price too, $1,400,000.  
5201 N CIRCULO SOBRIO Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

This was, of course, a done deal, all arranged prior to going into the mls yesterday. And it is also another nice sale for the comps in Cat 10.

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it’s finally official

The latest Pima Canyon foreclosure, at 1682 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, is in contract.
It was actually in contract about a week ago, but didn’t show up as such until today.

That’s after about 6 years on the market, starting at $4.2mil and ending up as a foreclosure at $1.075, whereupon it was quickly snapped up.

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now that summer is over we’re starting to see a trickle of new listings

And though it may sound strange, new listings will be a very welcome sight. 
The inventory is very low, lower than I’ve seen it in my almost 10 years in the biz – currently 363 for sale including 67 at a $million & up. But, unfortunately, quite a few of the homes that do remain for sale are stale old listings that have proven difficult to sell, or they are at a price that no one is willing to touch. Or both.

And I have a few clients who would like to buy a house in the foothills, but the kind of house they want is just not for sale at this time. And it’s not amongst these new listings either, or I wouldn’t be spreading them around like this. And I know other agents who are in the same boat.

See the link below for the 10 listings in the Tucson Foothills at $750,000 or more that have come to market since September 1st. And I’ve tried to weed out the relisted old listings, you know, homes that have been listed and recently expired or withdrawn and then re-listed. However, a few of the 10 homes have been for sale before, and failed to sell, and are now back. But in those cases, they’ve been off the market for a respectable few months anyway.

And it’s encouraging that most of the homes in this group that were for sale or sold in the last few years, have now been relisted at lower prices, in some cases much lower prices, than they either sold or were listed for before.

> Listed since September 1 <

And there is no doubt in my mind that there are quite a few potential home sellers out there who would like to sell but have held off listing their homes because of  poor market & economic conditions. And then more recently because of the added burden of slower summer sales. Well, at least summer is over.

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mountain lion encounter

I received the following email from a trusted resident of the old foothills area;

There was a mountain lion encounter off of Calle Del Cielo and Calle La Cima.
A small dog was attacked. Please take all precautions when letting small pets and children outside. Do not leave them unattended. If walking, either pick them up or keep them close as possible. Make loud noises, make yourself look big and move slowly towards a safe area.

UPDATE – FALSE ALARM,  ADDITIONAL SIGHTINGS NOW INDICATE THAT THE MOUNTAIN LION IS ACTUALLY A BOBCAT.

the bigger they are …

There’s an article in today’s AZ Daily Star about Saguaro Ranch, the ultra-luxe home community on the northwest side that went belly up before it got off the ground.

according to the article,
In June, Kennedy Funding and Anglo-American took over Saguaro Ranch (for $14 million) after filing a foreclosure notice on the property earlier this year.

Developers of the property in Marana, led by Stephen Phinny, had defaulted on a $50 million loan recorded in December 2005, documents filed with the Pima County Recorder's Office show.

Read all about it, from The Arizona Daily Star > Real estate: New Saguaro Ranch owners turn to Tucson developer <

The article goes on to state that lots sold for about $1 million when the market was at its peak and that they are now selling for $300,000. That’s bad enough, but the truth is that lots sold for much more than that. The mls shows 15 lots sold from $1.1 to $1.9, with multiple sales at $1.3, a couple at $1.5ish, a couple at $1.6+ at $1.7+ and the king of the hill at $1.9. That was in 2004 to 2007. And then the music stopped.

Saguaro Ranch was an extraordinary development that promised the peak of luxury. And even though it is nowhere near the foothills, because it was so extraordinary, I’d mentioned it > here > here & finally here.

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5 bright spots in real estate recession

I don’t know if this is actually true, and I hope it is, but it sounded so positive & promising I had to pass it on anyway. 
5 bright spots in real estate recession

By Tara-Nicholle Nelson, Monday, September 12, 2011.Inman News™

The real estate market meltdown was much more severe and has lasted much longer than even the most bearish housing market observer would ever have predicted. Rather than values taking a dip, they've taken a double dip in many places; and the housing sector drama has infected the job market and the entire world's economy.

Yet, there are some very shiny silver linings to this whole mess -- a handful of ways in which our mindsets, habits, behaviors and approaches to money, mortgage and even life decision-making -- have been changed by this real estate market debacle. As I see it, here are the five best things about this otherwise terrible housing recession:

continue, read all about it > 5 bright spots in real estate recession <

and ps  - (this is from Inman News- a real estate industry news and info site) I’m always skeptical of RE industry sites, since so much of what’s on them is self serving propaganda & bs. But Inman seems pretty straight.

new in Cat 10

5051 N Circulo Sobrio joins 4 other homes for sale in Cat 10.
And at $1,100,000 it takes honors as the highest priced in there, though by just $5k, while in $/sf, at $344/sf, it is clearly the leader of the pack. It last sold in 1998 for $535,000.

see> for sale in Cat 10

and> sold this year in Cat 10

5051 N Circulo Sobrio Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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the Wrigley Building is on the block

And it seems that a group of investors, including a couple from Groupon, are planning to buy the jewel of Michigan Avenue. It’s a gorgeous building and perfectly sited at the Chicago River & Michigan Avenue.

My first time ever in Chicago, in 1978 ?, I was there for a job interview and had a very memorable lunch at the Wrigley Building Restaurant. And as a result of that lunch I ended up taking the job and spending more than 20 years in Chicago - a lot of business got done over lunch in those days. And from my new office I looked across Michigan Ave at the Wrigley Building – what a great sight morning til night.

Whoa, talk about getting nostalgic

From The Chicago Tribune: read all about it,

BDT Capital Partners to buy Wrigley Building

no muss no fuss …

Listed in March for $1,395,000, 7381 N Moon Spirit went to contract in August  and closed today for $1,300,000 ($319/sf).
That’s in Cobblestone – and it’s the first sale up there this year, the last one was a short sale in August 2010 that went for $1mil ($180/sf) - 

and there are 4 homes still for sale $1,199,000 to $1,600,000

7381 N Moon Spirit Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

the latest foreclosure action

from Realtytrac, the foreclosure rate based on new filings during the month of August and expressed as a ratio of the housing market in each area;

USA – 1 in 570 homes
(that’s 1 foreclosure filing in August for every 570 homes)

AZ – 1 in 248

Pima County  - 1 in 349

Tucson, AZ – 1 in 369

Tucson Foothills (85718) – 1 in 964
(85750) – 1 in 825

the Northeast (85749) – 1 in 665

the Northwest
(85741) – 1 in 286
(85742) – 1 in 385
(85743) – 1 in 239
(85704) – 1 in 956
(85739) – 1 in 369
(85755) – no data, darn it

Marana, AZ – 1 in 181

and From CNNMoney.com
Foreclosures rise in August

The increase in default notices may signal that lenders are starting to finally push through foreclosure paperwork that was previously delayed by the "robo-signing" controversy last fall, said RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio.

"It also foreshadows more bank repossessions in the coming months as these new foreclosures make their way through the process," he said in a release.

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A RARELY SEEN MID CENTURY MODERN

just listed at 4820 E Salida Del Sol Place,
$995,000($220/sf)/4513 sf/1.83 acres/4 Beds-4 Baths/2 Car

See it here> 4820 E Salida Del Sol Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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under contract in record time

Listed just 19 days ago for $1,249,000 ($344/sf), 7574 N Mystic Canyon Drive,
in Pima Canyon, is already in contract.

When it was listed I mentioned it here > another one joins the fray <
and quickly rises above. And not an el cheapo short sale or foreclosure either.

Congratulations to one and all,

7574 N Mystic Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty) 

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cutting to the chase in the Canyons

Here it is, the 3rd big price cut in 4 days in the Canyons - 7203 N Cloud Canyon Place today dropped from $1,990,000 to $1,500,000 ($270/sf). That’s a big cut,
but it’s also been a long time coming.

Cloud Canyon sold for $2,200,000 in a cash deal in 2001 and then, in 2007, it was listed for $3,250,000 then to $2,950,000 and $2,790,000 etc, until it reached $1,990,000 in June 2010, where it stayed. But now at $1,500,000 it is by far the lowest priced home in the Canyons - $1,295,000 less than the next one up.

This, as well as the two big price cuts the other day > finally, a couple of big price cuts in the Canyons <  may or may not move the merchandise. We’ll see. But there’s no question these are big moves in the right direction.

7203 N Cloud Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Could this be the first trickle of some serious high-end price cuts to come, I hope so.

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yet another scam to watch out for

The following email, warning of this latest scam, comes courtesy of a Shadow Hills resident;

We received an unusual message on our answering machine yesterday from "Michael Turner from UPS delivery".  He said that UPS had a package to deliver to us, but we needed to call an 800 number and provide some information to UPS before it could be delivered.  When my husband called the number (1-876-429-4727) Turner was insistent he provide him with ID before they would deliver the package.  Naturally, he did not get any ID information.  Instead we called the sheriff's office who confirmed that this is a scam.  A call to the 800 number, which is in Jamaica, results in all kinds of charges on your phone bill.  Our phone company agreed to remove the charges.

The rest of the story...this morning Michael Turner called again my husband hung up on him.  He immediately called again and when I answered he insisted he had to talk to my husband, that there was a package to deliver, blah, blah blah.  I told him the call was a scam and that we would call the police and hung up.  He immediately called a third time and angrily said he had to talk to my husband.  I told him we had called the police and hung up.  He has not called again.

After the fact, I googled the phone number and found that it is from Jamaica.  I will remember to do that in the future for suspicious numbers.

So beware of "Michael Turner from UPS delivery".

was $2.6, is $1.375

When it was first listed in January 2008, 1347 E Desert Garden was listed for $2,600,000 ($530/sf). And for the next 18 months it was reduced and reduced until it was pulled from the market, unsold, in September 09 at $1,800,000.

1347 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

A huge improvement, it was relisted this May at $1,500,000 and is now $1,375,000($298/sf).

Will that do it. I don’t know, but with so little activity at the upper end of the foothills real estate market I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slew of high end price reductions. Actually, I’ll be surprised if we don’t. With so much uncertainty in the economy and so little confidence in government, I can’t imagine that even the most hopelessly optimistic of high-end home sellers can continue to believe that a buyer is going to come along anytime soon to pay yesterday’s prices.

And as I mentioned yesterday, there are cash buyers out there, but they’re looking for good deals,

We’ve had a grand total of three homes listed at a million or more (at $1.095, $1.190, $1.250) go to contract in the foothills since the first days of August. And two of them are short sales.

Meanwhile, there are 17 homes for sale in Pima Canyon (alone) – and at $1.375 this one on Desert Garden is the median priced home of the bunch, the average/median is $1,850,171/$1,375,000

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have you heard, there are cash buyers out there

but they’re looking for good deals,

Here’s one they jumped on, the foreclosure I mentioned > you’re in luck if you like cantera < the one at 1682 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, listed for $1,075,000, it has 9 offers, nine, and 7 of them are cash. And some are for over list price.

And I’m told that since so many of the offers coming in were cash, the lender decided not to even bother with anything but cash offers, tut tut.
But it’s a done-deal now, or close to it, they've picked the lucky winner and are alerting them, as well as the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place backup bidders - all wrapped up in about 2 weeks.

Why, because it’s a really good deal, you couldn’t build this place for $2 million,

But having said that, I’m still very surprised there were so many ready, willing and able buyers for it. Because its architectural style, which is heavy duty Spanish Colonial, is not, in my experience, a style that is all that popular today.

1682 E Sahuaro Blossom Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker)

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a little bobcat nap between showings

this guy was snoring away on the window sill of a house in Pima Canyon I was showing

 

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finally, a couple of big price cuts in the Canyons

The spec home at 7417 N Secret Canyon Drive was first listed in October 2008 for $4.5mil. And in the 3 long years since that dark October day the price has dropped a total of 1 million to $3.495. But now today they lopped off $500 thou in one swoop – to $2.995 ($414/sf). 7417 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

And not to be outdone, right up the street at 7431 N Secret Canyon Drive the price dropped from a cool $5 million to an even cooler $3.950 ($410/sf). 
And I’ll be …, talk about coincidence, but this house was also listed in October 2008, though for $6,450,000. 7431 N Secret Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Those are big price cuts, but are they big enough to excite buyers and spur offers.
Well I sure hope so, but with virtually no activity at this price range I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Though there were buyers for the house at 3657 E Canyon Wind Place  – they put it in contract in June (then listed at $2.995), but they also canceled last month – and they may want to reconsider one of these.  3657 E Canyon Wind Place Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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here’s where things stand

I say stand, as in standing still, because not much is moving lately,

There are 344 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median list price of $814,467/$499,000

38 homes sold in the last 30 days (= about 9 months inventory) – listed at an average/median of $411,580/$387,507 – and sold at an average/median of $391,168/$365,000 (so sold for about 95% of the latest list price)

78 homes in contract at an average/median list price of $520,652/$365,000

At least the inventory is low, during the September 2008 economic crisis, there were 551 homes for sale in the Foothills,

a triple play

Despite this musty and uncertain economic climate we’re stuck in, three houses in the foothills went to contract today, and all three were listed by Janell Jellison of Long Realty. WOW, Congratulations!

And two were in Ventana,
7331 E Calle Meseta Serena listed at $629,000 ($230/sf)
6494 N Ventana Canyon Drive listed at $1,495,000 ($190/sf)

along with 6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place listed at $1,095,000 ($229/sf)

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

behind those pearly gates

 Let’s sneak behind the gates of some of our more popular gated communities and see what’s for sale, what has sold and for how much

Going east to west, lets pick on Ventana CC first,

Ventana Country Club
26 for sale $345,000 to $5,200,000
12 sold (last 6 months) $339,000 to $2,200,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
26 @$1,288,367/$1,147,000	12 @$865,125/$803,750	13

Ventana was a late bloomer this year for sales. For a while it almost looked as if it just wasn’t going to happen – but homes finally started selling in June, and 10 of the 12 sold in the last 6 months have sold in the last 3 months. Also, and I know we’ll find this in other high-end communities, there’s that large gap between the avg price of homes that are selling vs those for sale. And that’s due to the fact that relatively few high priced homes are selling, relative to the number for sale.

Sabino Mountain
9 for sale $274,900 to $1,950,000
5 sold $250,000 to $535,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
9 @$716,878/$389,000	5 @ $342,850/$315,000	10.8

Once the darling of new gated communities  in the foothills, (though I never quite understood all the hoopla)  Sabino Mtn has lost some luster. While $1.2 and $1.3 sales were fairly common a few years ago, the highest sale in there in the last 2 years was $900,000, then $875,000, then $675,000 and on down. And 2 of the 5 that sold sold as foreclosures. If a buyer does come along for one of the higher priced homes on Sabino, how do you justify the price and what do you do for comps??

Skyline Country Club
10 for sale $439,000 to $3,450,000
9 sold $450,000 to $1,850,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
10@ $1,021,490/$749,000	9 @ $1,007,000/$705,000	6.6

Almost a perfect score across the board. List and sold prices are in agreement, and with homes at this price range that’s rare, and 6.6 moi is spectacular. And just one foreclosure amongst the sales, though 2 of those for sale are short sales. Skyline really came back this year, now lets see if it can somehow hold on to that lead.

La Paloma
20 for sale $204,000 to $1,990,000 
18 sold $250 to $1,640,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
20 @ $619,580/$547,000	18 @ $590,083/$527,500	6.7

La P has also been doing well. 6.7 moi is impressive in this market. And also with list and sold prices in close agreement. And because La P has done so well it makes me wonder what’s stopping Ventana CC, why aren’t homes selling as well in there.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
5 for sale $745,000 to $1,190,000
6 sold $497,000 to $1,750,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
5 @ $975,000/$970,000	6 @ $1,178,667/$1,200,00	5, WOW!

And Cat 10 also managed to climb out of a very deep dark sales hole.
After a dismal 18 month period from mid 08 to early 2010, sales finally started to pick up, and then they just kept going.

17 homes sold from Feb 1, 2010 to today (none were distress sales) – 7 of them from $1.2 to $1.750 - vs. just 8 sold in the 18 months from July 08 to Jan 2010  with the highest sale at $995k, then $775, etc. Cat 10 is back, and the current inventory is also at the low-end of the historical price range in there. (in April 09 there were 17 for sale and not a single sale since October 08 - look on the bright side, darn it) (in March 2010, there were 18 for sale at avg/med of $1,607,000/$1,499,500)

Hacienda del Sol Estates
0 for sale
2 sold $695,000 & $921,500

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
0	2 @ $808,250/$808,250	0

Nothing for sale, that’s special. And it’s probably a good thing to give it a rest.
Things didn’t go so well in there for the last couple of years – of the 11 homes sold
5 were distress sales. And as we speak there’s at least one more percolating off the radar. While the highest sale in the last two years was $921,500, then $853k, then it’s into the $7’s & $6’s. While back in the day sale prices of $1.3 and more were not unusual. 

Canyons (The)
7 for sale $1,990,000 to $9,995,000
1 sold $1,850,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
7 @ $4,395,714/$3,495,000	1 @ $1,850,000	42

What’s there to say that hasn’t been said. Nothing’s selling at this price range and who knows when they will. (the $1,850,000 sale was a foreclosure reduced from $5.0, while the last sale before that was 3 years ago, July 2008) Yikes!

Cobblestone
4 for sale $1,199,000 to $1,600,000
0 sold

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
4 @ $1,362,000/$1,324,500	0	?

4 for sale, none sold. The last sale in Cobblestone was last August, that’s August 2010. And talk about shadow inventory, there are 5 homes in Cobblestone that were for sale in 2010 & 2011, but didn’t sell, and were withdrawn from the market (between then & now) and have not returned. So maybe 5 additional homes are lurking in the shadows and waiting, presumably for better times, to sell. oy,

Sin Vacas
3 for sale $585,000 to $1,000,000
7 sold $500,000 to $975,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
3 @ $728,000/$599,000	7 @ $699,857/$640,000	2.5

hip-hip Sin Vacas, the poster child for a vibrant real estate market.
Why has Sin Vacas been doing so well? There may be other reasons, but I’ll bet a big one is price. As in, the homes in Sin Vacas that sold were priced quite a bit less (mostly in the $5 to $7k range) than homes in our other, loftier, gated communities.
Like Pima Canyon

Pima Canyon
17 for sale $825,000 to $4,250,000
7 sold $920,000 to $1,660,500

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
17 @$1,857,524/$1,495,000	7 @ $1,289,143/$1,200,000	14.5

Unlike other foothills communities, Pima Canyon has had the added burden of lots of spec homes setting up camp in PC. Why, because when PC opened it doors in 2000, suddenly there were dozens & dozens of very buildable lots available for sale in this beautiful new gated community. And they all had utilities to the lot line and paved roads and everything a builder needed to get going. So builders and investors saw the future and bought up those lots and built spec homes on them. There was nowhere else in the foothills where that could be done on anywhere near that scale. And that went on until last year.

So to this day the spec inventory is still being worked off, while the downward price pressure of foreclosed spec homes, and others, continues to be a burden. Of the 17 homes for sale I count 7 specs. And that’s now, in 2011, after many spec homes have already come and gone.

And one more thing to keep in mind when looking at PC as compared to Ventana, La Paloma, Skyline CC and even Sabino Mountain. In those communities there are oodles of smaller homes for sale in the $200 to $700k range, (a range that continues to sell much better than $1.0 & up) while in PC everything is larger and higher end. Albeit, not quite as high end as some imagine it to be.

The End.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

is there an echo in here

It’s come to my attention that another real estate agent in the foothills, actually an agent at Long Realty no less, who has started blogging, is taking the topics that I blog about, re-wording them and presenting them as her own. How cheesy and puny is that.

Of course it’s also plagiarism > http://www.plagiarism.org/index.html
to "plagiarize" means

• to steal and pass off (the ideas or words of another) as one's own
• to use (another's production) without crediting the source
• to commit literary theft
• to present as new and original an idea or product derived from an existing source.

In other words, plagiarism is an act of fraud. It involves both stealing someone else's work and lying about it afterward.

you know who you are, and if you keep it up everyone else will too

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the slippery slope

Tucson Homes 
Tucson Real Estate

This is a nifty new google chart from something called Google Trends that shows the world’s interest in a particular topic, based on the number of Google searches. In this case I entered the search terms Tucson Homes & Tucson Real Estate to see the relative number of searches from 2004 through today.

It’s been a long slippery slide, though searches for both terms appear to be up a bit for this year. Or at least were up for this year. We’ll see.

Oh, and I did try Tucson Foothills Homes etc, but there’s not enough data , i.e. searches, for google to pull together a chart for the foothills. Hey that’s cool, we’re an off the charts niche market.

I’ll play with this some more and see what other fascinating trends I’m able to unearth.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

what’s it worth to live on ‘the street without death’

I mentioned 2290 E Placita Sin Muerte back in July when it was first listed and again when it went to contract just two days later > improve your odds <

and now it closed today for full list price – $589,000 ($227/sf). Coincidence?

2290 E Placita Sin Muerte Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizo)

is bigger still better

This came up during a conversation with another agent about how a very large house he has listed (more than 10,000 sf) gets no showings. None, zippo. And, not surprisingly, he doesn’t have much hope of selling it. But that’s not surprising either.

Really big houses just aren’t all that popular in the foothills. That’s what buyers are telling us. Looking back 5+ years to January 2006, just two homes over 10,000 sf have sold in the foothills. That’s it.

And one of them was the Javelina Dr house, the house in Skyline CC (10,901 sf) that after seven years on the market finally sold  a few months ago through foreclosure for $1,850,000 ($170/sf), which was about $350k more than I thought they’d get.
Or should get.

for my eulogy on Javelina Dr, see > another icon bites the dust <

On the other hand, if you are in the market for 10,000 sf, there are only 4 to choose from in the foothills > for sale over 10,000 sf < but still, I imagine you oughta be able to drive a pretty hard bargain

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

in the mood for something lavish

step right this way,

 

There’s more, lots more, but you get the picture

That’s 2087 E Desert Garden Drive and after taking a little breather it’s once again available. All masonry construction, 5784 sf, 4 Beds/3.5 Baths, 4 car, pool-spa, and they didn’t stint on the cantera either, and all for $2,495,000 ($436/sf)

2087 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

And coincidentally, this house was built by the same builder, Monty Bartholomew, that built the house at 1682 E Sahuaro Blossom Place that came up for sale last week > you’re in luck if you like cantera < the very same.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home