Let’s look at the numbers and see.
At $1 mil and up there are 75 homes listed for sale
(average list price $2,166,359) (none are distress sales, yeah!)
There are 10 in contract -
(average list price $1,388,400) (2 distress sales)
And 13 sold in the last 3 months
(average sold price $1,350,154) (3 were distress sales)
With the current inventory and rate of sales, there is a 17+ month supply of homes at $1 mil and up – about 3X what is considered a normal or balanced market.
And then there’s this - the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average list price of those in contract by 56% – and the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average sold price of those sold by 60%. Why, because for the most part, buyers are choosing homes from the low end of the high-end inventory. And not from the mid to high-end of the high-end inventory. Make sense?
So looking at it with eyes-wide-open, it’s clear the high-end continues to be a very unbalanced market that is heavily weighted in favor of buyers. Or at least it should be.
But there are still quite a few home sellers who apparently don’t care about that stuff, you know, the facts.
On the other hand we’ve recently entered our high season for home sales here in the Tucson Foothills – a hopeful time which runs January to May or June – when, presumably, there are more buyers looking for, and buying, high-end homes. A time when, if the market is going to improve,(a very big if) this is when it’s most likely to do it. Of course, unless another shoe drops somewhere in the world.
PS – since January 1st just 2 homes listed at $1 mil or more have gone to contract.
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