TheTucsonFoothills

then and now in Pinnacle Ridge, aka Paloma Canyon

Last February there were;

6 for sale
3 sold   (last 6 months)
0 in contract

This February there are;

1 for sale
6 sold  (last 6)
2 in contract

So supply is way down and demand is way up. The market here in the Foothills is turning around right before our eyes.

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a little bidding war

On Feb 12 I wrote about a new listing that was new construction but only partially built, and being sold unfinished and listed at $400k > looking for a project to keep busy < and apparently there were at least a couple of buyers with time on their hands and money in their pocket, because it went to contract in just 3 days and closed today as a cash sale for $130k over list,

2850 E Via Alcalde Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty) 

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in contract since Feb 20

29 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills since then,

22 priced from $219,900 to $599,000 (193 remain for sale in this price range)
  5 from $629,000 to $895,000  (87 for sale)
  2 at $1,295,000 & $1,795,000 ((70 for sale)

if you’re keeping track, here’s what it looked like ten days ago,
in contract since Feb 15th,

Happy leap year!

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another professional appraisal

According to the listing information on a house for sale in Skyline Country Club, it was “recently professionally appraised for $950,000”. And that’s really interesting. Because it sold for $885,000 in 05 and for $975,000 in 07. And even though everything has dropped 30% or more since 07, it still appraised for $950,000 today. My oh my.

Hey anything’s possible and I suppose it could have miraculously held its value while everything else fell. At least it has according to the professional appraisal.

But the marketplace hasn’t put much credibility in that appraisal and apparently the owner of the house hasn’t either. It’s listed for just $799,000 – and has been for a while - and it’s still for sale.

And yes I’m on the war path with appraisals and the whole appraisal process. Because I’ve had more than my share of flawed, blatantly wrong appraisals and I’m sick of it. Why does it happen, because the new and improved regulations that govern who and how appraisers are assigned often result in the appraisal and valuation of the home you’d like to buy being in the hands of an appraiser who has little or no experience in the foothills – and maybe even no experience anywhere. And that’s a disaster in the making. And it happens because the appraisal management companies that are hired to hire an appraiser – isn’t that dumb, now we have to hire someone in order to hire someone -  are mainly interested in getting the job done as quickly and cheaply as possible. Even the appraisers will tell you that.

I recently got an appraisal that blatantly ignored some serious flaws in the comparable properties – like being located next to a busy road, like Campbell Ave, or having an array of power lines along with a power pole running right through the backyard. And more. And the appraiser didn’t make adjustments in value for those very serious and unfixable flaws. And I emailed him and pointed out my concerns and still he refused. Just refused.

So I emailed the appraisal management company that hired the appraiser and pointed out the items I  took issue with and why.  And they never replied. Nothing, not a word. So I googled them - Accurate Appraisal Management Services – and lo and behold they had a web site so I went there to get a phone number or mailing address and maybe go knock on their door.
But there’s nothing, no phone number, no mailing address, no email address, no contact info on their web site. What’s that about. Perhaps it’s just easier if no one can get in touch.

The point is, if you get an appraisal that appears to be wide of the mark, it may in fact be wide of the mark.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

why if this keeps up

two more contracts today on higher-end homes,

6218 N Sabino Shadow Lane, appropriately sited off a private lane in the shadow of Sabino Canyon and listed at $1,295,000 ($277/sf) since January 2011, went to contract today.
6218 N Sabino Shadow Lane , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

As did 6260 N Whaleback Place in Ventana Country Club – listed at $1,795,000 ($307/sf) and on the market just 27 days. (yes it was for sale last year but was pulled from the market in June)
6260 N Whaleback Place , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

more fun foothills facts

- in the last two years there’ve been just 5 sales at $2mil and up - three in Mountain Estates at Ventana and two in Pima Cyn.

- today there are 71 homes listed at $1mil and up – two years ago there were 121

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

we’ve seen it right here in the little ole foothills

From CNNMoney.com
Million-dollar foreclosures rise as rich walk away

Five years after the housing bubble burst, America's wealthiest families are now losing their homes to foreclosure at a faster rate than the rest of the country -- and many of them are doing so voluntarily.

"These properties are accounting for a bigger piece of the foreclosure pie," said Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac.

Out of all foreclosure activity, the share of foreclosures on properties valued at $1 million or more has risen by 115% since 2007 while the share of multi-million dollar foreclosures -- or homes valued at more than $2 million -- jumped by 273%. Meanwhile, the share of foreclosures on mid-range properties valued between $500,000 and $1 million fell by 21%.

_____________________________________________________________________________

for homes in the foothills listed at $1.0+, and counting short sales along with foreclosures,

in 2008 there were 0 (although in 08 the process of reporting distress sales was not quite up to speed)

2009 – 4

2010- 7

2011- 9

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we got off easy

I question the accuracy of it but, here it is,  Inside Tucson Business reports that Distressed sales dominated 80% of 2011 housing market  (in Tucson)

Was 2011 just one big year-long clearance sale? Due to an “over stock” of product and drastically reduced prices, about 12,800 homes sold last year, most of them in the distressed merchandise “bargain bin.”

“It’s reasonable that 80 percent of sales were distressed,” said housing analyst John Strobeck, owner of Bright Future Business Consultants.

In examining the data, Strobeck emphasized there is not a definitive process that pinpoints the exact number of distressed sales. However, there are various ways to dissect the data that results in a fair estimate.
__________________________________________________________________

I can’t speak for the methods used by John Strobeck and Roger Yohem, who wrote the article, but I went ahead and searched the Tucson MLS and pulled the sales for the Tucson Metro in 2011 and came up with 12,789 residential properties sold - that’s everything, single family, condo, town home, mobile homes and tree houses. Which meshes up nicely with the total number of homes sold as reported in the ITB article. But when I extract the distress sales
(both short & foreclosure & yes the MLS does report short sales) from the 12,789, it shows that 6887 were distress sales. And that’s nowhere near 80%, in fact it’s 54%. So who you gonna believe.

Anyway, re: we got off easy, in the Tucson Foothills distress sales (both short and foreclosure) made up just 20% of all singe family home sales made through the MLS in 2011.  Ok, but how about if we add everything to the mix - townhomes and mobile homes, condos & etc, – well, then it comes to 974 total sales, and 257 of them, or 26%, were distress sales.

we got off easy

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price it right and sell it fast, or don’t

In Ventana Reserve, 6042 N Indian Trail was listed in late December for $999,000 and closed escrow yesterday for $950,000 ($209/sf),  and it sold for 95% of list price. With nary a price cut.

6042 N Indian Trail Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

No such luck over at 7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive in Pima Canyon. It started out two years ago at $1,127,000, and while it also closed yesterday it went for just $740,000 ($205/sf) -  after two years of price cuts and finally getting down to a $799,900 list price – just 66% of the original list price, but 92% of the latest list price.

7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br)

And PS-  Mystic Canyon will go down in the books as having sold for 92% of list price, because, as calculated by the MLS, the latest list price is all that counts. Period.
With no further information, explanation or footnotes. Nothing to indicate that it started out at $1,127,000 and it took numerous price cuts on its way to $799,900 before finally selling for $740. And, along with the 92% figure, nothing to indicate that it sold for 66% of its original list price, (OLP).

But that’s not at all unusual. For every home that has one price cut or twenty price cuts (and there are thousands) the % of sale price/list price is, nevertheless, calculated solely on the latest list price. 

Why? I can’t imagine. Especially since doing so presents only a partial and more positive impression of the market than is often the case, an impression that buyers and sellers are in much closer agreement about prices than they really are, and that the market is more balanced and humming along more smoothly than it really is.

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then and now in the Tucson Foothills

Writing about home sales in the Tucson Foothills last February (what’s selling) I said;

in the last 30 days 56 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(6 foreclosures in that group)

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (274 remain for sale) = 6.5 months inventory
10 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (123 for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (89 for sale) = 22.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $483,914/$364,000/$164 sf

flash forward to today and,

in the last 30 days 53 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(and 6 foreclosures this year too) honest

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (195 remain for sale) = 4.6 months inventory
7 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (87 remain for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (74 remain for sale) = 18.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $476,781/$359,850/$164 sf

So déjà vu. Other than a few bucks here and a few bucks there the numbers are incredibly similar, if not identical, from then to now.

But what has changed in the last year, and it is significant, is the number of homes in contract & for sale last February vs. today.

Last Feb there were 484 single family homes for sale and 82 in contract -  
today there are 351 for sale and 139 in contract, see yesterday’s post > curious about what’s in contract 

That’s 27% fewer homes for sale along with a 69% increase in demand.
That’s not chickenfeed.

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curious about what’s in contract

Me too. Because looking at what’s in contract is the clearest sign of where the market is right now – and at what prices buyers and sellers are actively engaged in the market.

Overall, there are 139 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. And with 351 for sale, 139 in contract = 39% of the available inventory in contract. A very healthy number.
(Last month it was 105 in contract vs. 364 for sale for 28% of inventory in contract)

But also, as was true last month and has been for some time, most the action is still huddled at the lower end of the market. Though $600 to $999 has really perked up.

Here’s what it looks like by price range;

111 in contract at $0 to $599,999
    (with 190 for sale = 58% of available inventory in contract. that’s HUGE)

  19 at $600,000 to $999,999
     (with 87 for sale = 22% of inventory in contract)

    6 at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
      (32 for sale = 19% of inventory in contract)

    3 at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
      (21 for sale = 14% of inventory in contract)

    0 at $2,000,000 and up
      (21 for sale and nothing in contract = nothing)

Overall, and in 3 of the 5 price ranges, the ratio of homes in contract/homes for sale is stronger now than it was last month > what’s in contract < because demand has increased and supply has decreased and PS- we are at the lowest inventory in YEARS

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Foothills 2 is 2 for 2

and it’s lucky number 13, too

Two weeks ago I mentioned that 3632 E Windy Point Drive, listed at $1,195,000, went to contract in 13 days - (dead wrong)

And now 6941 N FINGER ROCK Place, listed just 13 days ago at $895,000, is also in contract.

6941 N FINGER ROCK Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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Foreclosures climbed in January + other cheerful news

From CNNMoney.com

Foreclosures climbed in January
Foreclosures picked up in January, yet another sign that the nation's huge glut of delinquent homes may soon start making their way onto the market.

The number of homes hit with a notice of default, auction sale, bank repossession or some other foreclosure filing in January rose 3% since December, but it was still significantly lower than it was a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.

+

Home prices at lowest point in more than 10 years
The National Association of Realtors reported that the median home price in January fell 2% from December to $154,700. That's the lowest price reading since November 2001, before the run-up in home prices that became known as the housing bubble.

+

Multi-million dollar foreclosures
Even these mega-mansions in some of America's wealthiest neighborhoods are not immune to the housing crisis. Duh

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you can ask whatever you want

7151 N Lemmon Rock Place sold for $756 in 06 and for $400k today – as a short sale. 
That’s a steeper drop (- 47%) than that experienced by many other homes in similar circumstances.

Could it have something to do with rolling the dice in 08 and listing it for $830k after paying $756k at the tippy-top.

7151 N Lemmon Rock Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

PS- even Zillow thought they should get more, they zestimated it at $440.

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when the right one comes along

listed just 15 days ago at $700k 6030 N Camino Escalante is already spoken for 

6030 N Camino Escalante Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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and find the one that’s right for you

this looks awfully good

7040 N Camino Sin Vacas, Tucson, AZ, 85718 
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

it last sold in June 08 for $855,000 and is listed today for $689,000, right out of the chute.

PS- this is not in the gated community of Sin Vacas – it’s one block south of it.

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at long last

3731 E Sumo Septimo is in contract,

It’s been around and I mentioned it a few times over the years, most recently here >
a long way from where it started

3731 E Sumo Septimo Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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talk about lowballing

Zillow’s zestimate for 6820 N Los Leones Drive, a new spec in Skyline CC, is $1,010,800.

Meanwhile Los Leones sold today for $1,525,000.

6820 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

zestimates vs. real world prices

The other day I mentioned that I’d recently seen some improvement in the accuracy of Zillow’s zestimates for homes in the Tucson Foothills, I said -  they’ve made some real progress and sharpened their game a bit. The zestimates are still hit or miss, but more often it’s closer to a hit than to a miss.

OK, so let’s cut to the chase and look at the actual sale prices vs. zestimates and see how on or off target zestimates really are at predicting home values in the foothills.

The following are all the single family homes (28)  that sold in the foothills (through the Tucson MLS) from  Feb 1 to Feb 19.  
( I put a ** next to those I consider to be on target, i.e. within about 5 or 6% of actual sale price)

But you may see it differently and feel that I’m being too generous or too stingy with the **’s,
if so, please, we would love to hear about it. 

Address	SOLD $$	Zestimate $$
4521 N Rocky Creek Circle	$182,000	$189,100  **
6100 E River Road	$225,000	$234,800  **
560 E Agave Drive	$245,000	$272,700  **
5311 N Via Condesa	$248,000	$289,900
3331 N Riverbend Circle West	$295,000	$282,400  **
7572 E Placita De La Prosa	$255,000	$311,100
4819 N Via Sonrisa	$305,000	$296,400  **
6084 N Black Bear Loop	$310,000	$269,400
4491 E River Oak Trail	$325,000	$377,800
6615 N Donna Beatrix	$289,000	$363,900
5440 N Ventana Vista Road	$345,000	$341,800  **
5130 N Pelican River Way	$368,000	$365,300  **
5498 N Crescent Ridge Drive	$358,000	$337,300  **
7065 E Townsend Place	$350,000	$342,500  **
5885 E Calle Val	$365,000	$381,300  **
5847 N Golden Eagle Drive	$380,000	$423,900
5862 E Paseo Cimarron	$420,000	$406,900  **
5132 E Camino Alisa	$475,000	$538,100
6860 N Solaz Primero	$450,000	$489,500
7308 N Camino Sin Vacas	$525,000	$506,600  **
4430 N Hacienda Del Sol Road	$554,500	$215,200 (-**)
4264 N Placita De Sandra	$600,000	$543,300
5759 N Campbell	$575,000	$544,900  **
2680 E Calle Los Altos	$708,000	$677,100  **
6079 E Red Cardinal Place	$775,000	$667,800
4455 E Coronado Drive	$1,035,000	$1,015,100  **
6070 N Desert Sun Court	$1,075,000	$1,004,800  **
3208 E Via Palomita	$1,750,000	$1,649,300  **

There are 28 homes listed and I **’d 17 of them as being on target. And a few are practically bulls eyes. That’s an improvement from where they were in the past.

But also notice that, at up to about $500k, when they miss the target, they often miss it by overshooting the actual sale price – in effect saying  they “think” those houses are worth more.  While at above $500k they’ve lowballed the actual sale price every time.  ??

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in contract since Feb 15th,

14 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills since then,

11 from $175,000 to $549,000
  3 from $635,000 to $995,000 
  0 at $1.0 & up

no surprises here,

and in case you’re keeping track, here’s what it looked like a few days ago,
> in contract since February 9th <

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taking a fresh look at Zillow’s zestimates

In the past I’ve taken issue with Zillow’s zestimates because I’ve often found them to be wildly inaccurate in zestimating single family home values here in the Tucson Foothills. 
They were either way high or low vs. a home’s actual (and eventual) selling price. 
And then with a straight face they’d cover their bet with a ridiculously broad ‘value range’, e.g., zestimate $740,000 (value range $610,000 to $890,000) Well gosh, give me a dart board and I’ll gladly take my chances. (and don’t miss the caveats, disclosures and ….)

And after deliberately ignoring zillow for some time now, I’ve started checking in with them again. And it looks to me as if they’ve made some real progress and sharpened their game a bit. The zestimates are still hit or miss, but more often it’s closer to a hit than to a miss.
I’ll list some examples in another post soon.

And why did I start checking in with Zillow again. Well at least partly because so-called professional appraisals have become such a total crapshoot – and are so often so far off the mark that they’ve become a real handicap to making a sale. And that’s not to say that we can use Zillow to rebut an appraisal, but just as another opinion – and from what I can see, a more useful opinion than in the past. I must admit.

And of course these wacky appraisals are thanks to the new and improved regulations that now govern who and how appraisers are assigned. Which may result in the appraisal and valuation of the home you’d like to buy being in the hands of an appraiser from Vail or Glendale or Apache Junction, or who knows where  – who has little or no experience in the foothills.
And boy if that’s the case hang on to your hats, because, even with local experience, it’s often tough to do a proper appraisal in the foothills. 

At least when Zillow offers a valuation you’re free to accept it or reject it with no further consequences. But a so-called professional appraisal will make or break your sale.

Here’s some further reading on the appraisal problem >
Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers

and my personal experience with a wacky appraisal,

the problem with appraisals

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looking for a short sale in the $7’s

Well here you go, 5870 N Pierdra Seca, a 2006 built, 3700 sf, 1 level, 4 Bed, 3.5 Bath with pool was listed today and range priced from $700k to $770,000 - Aha, range priced. 

Anyway, the important thing is that it’s priced somewhere in the $7’s and the owners paid $1,200,000 for it in 2006.

5870 N Pierdra Seca Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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sales and contracts

first, on Coronado Drive

4455 E Coronado Drive sold today for $1,035,000 ($257/sf) – and while that is 27% less than the $1,425,000 it started at in October 2010 – it is still way more than I would’ve bet it would ever get, in this market anyway. But maybe this market is changing and this is just another little sign that it is.    4455 E Coronado Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)
It last sold in 05 for $1,185,000, so, by the numbers the sellers did well.

And right down the street  4000 E Coronado Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 is reported in contract from a $389,000 list price. This is why it’s often difficult to make proper appraisals in areas of the foothills where there are a wide variety of houses – old and shabby, old and renovated, old and not renovated but not shabby, new and nice, new and not so nice, not new but not old either …
(listed by Long Realty)

And here are some of the other sales and contracts in the foothills, though not on Coronado Drive,

961 E Calle Mariposa sold for $769,000 in 2005, and today as a foreclosure for $436,000 off a $412,500 list price -  so a little bidding war I presume. (listed by Long Realty)

And in Skyline Belair 5132 E Camino Alisa went for $537,500 in 2002 and for $475,000 today. 2002 Yikes, (listed by Long Realty)

4430 N Hacienda Del Sol Road sold today for $554,000 off a $575,000 list price after just 6 days on the market. It was listed as a Joesler  – and it’s on 3.8 acres. So it’s special,  (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

5440 N Ventana Vista Road, in Ventana Vista, sold for $430,000 in October 08 and for $345,000 today. (listed by Long Realty)

A similar fate befell 5130 N Pelican River Way  - $489,753 in 07 and got just $368,000 today.
(listed by Realty Executives Tucson Elite)

 3641 E Via Alcalde is in contract today from a $949,000 ($255/sf) list price after about 4 and half months. It was also listed for 6 months in 07 – 08 at $1,550,000, to no avail. (listed by Long Realty)
Isn’t it nice to see realistic pricing pay off. 

And 7898 N Ancient Indian Drive, a short sale in Pima Cyn, was in a short sale contract for eternity, well almost, from late July to early February and after all that time it fell out. Now someone else has come along and put it back in contract – though still a 1st stage short sale contract.  (listed by Long Realty) 

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short sales and foreclosures in the Tucson Foothills

Here’s a look at the current state of distress sales in the foothills, 
(for single family homes)

there are;
32 for sale – 18 foreclosures - 14 short sales
all priced from $174,900 to $549,900
so nothing available in the mid or upper price ranges

44 in contract – 14 foreclosures - 30 short sales
38 priced from $69,000 to $580,800
  6  from $675,000 to $995,000
  0 at $1million & up

31 sold – 19  foreclosures – 12 short sales (last 3 months)
28 priced from $69,000 to $555,000
1  at $690,000
1 at $1,400,000 & 1 at $2,325,000

How do those distress sale numbers stack up in the overall foothills market?

- with 364 total homes for sale, 32 distress sales represent just under 9% of all homes for sale,

- with 122 total homes in contract, 44 distress sales represent 36% of all homes in contract. 
   That’s a hefty share, though many of them will fall out of contract for one reason or another  
   - often because mr. lender is not quite ready to play ball. But that aside, it’s obvious that –despite the hurdles -  buyers have developed a voracious appetite for the lower prices of short sales and foreclosures.

- sales are where the rubber meets the road and with 147 total homes sold in the last 3 months 31 distress sales represent 21% of total sales - nothing to shout about but by no means a devastating number.

And while more high-end homes are falling into the ranks of distress sales, the lion’s share are still at the lower-end of the market, in the $0 to $599k range. 

A grand total of 2 distress properties sold for $1.0m+ in 2009. In 2010 it jumped to 6 sold, and in 2011  9 sold. Meanwhile at $0 to $599k there were 44 sold in 2009, 104 in 2010, and 112 in 2011.

And for you history buffs here’s a look at where we were with distress sales over the last few years,

In June 09 I wrote, >  wondering about short sales & foreclosures < the numbers looked like this:

There are 559 single family homes for sale in the foothills. 
30 are listed as short sales & foreclosures.
That’s just 5.36% of the total for sale.

109 homes are under contract, 19 of them, or 17%, are short sales or foreclosures.

219 homes have sold since Jan 1 and 35, 16%, were short or foreclosure sales.

One year later, June 2010 I wrote > short sales and foreclosures, buyers prefer them 3 to 1 <
looked like this;

Right now there are 478 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills – and 46 of them, just 9.6%, are short sales or foreclosures.

Yet of the 112 homes currently in contract, 39, or a disproportionate 35%, are short sales or foreclosures.

And of the 229 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills since Jan 1, 33, or 14.4%, are short sales or foreclosures.

And finally, in September 2011, > Tucson Foothills home buyers favor short sales & foreclosures by a wide margin <

366 single family homes for sale in the foothills
12% are distress sales

79 homes in contract
47% are distress sales

34 homes sold last 30 days
29% are distress sales

Amen.

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in contract since February 9th

17 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills since then,

12 from $185,000 to $599,900 
  3 from $747,000 to $939,000 
  2 from $1,035,000 to $1,095,000

So things have picked up a teeny bit since we last looked at contracts in the foothills >
in contract since Saturday, Feb 4, and before that > in contract since Monday Jan 30 >
and, going way back > in the last 3 days

And we’re still hoping to find a pulse in million-five and up market,

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in contract again in Pima Canyon

1495 E Canyon Spring Court, a short sale – is at it again. It went to contract last month
(I wrote about it here >  is $9 something the new million five )< then it fell out.

Why’d it fall out. It was listed at $939,000 and the offer, I heard, came in close to that. 
So everything should’ve fallen into place. But ignoring both the list price and the offer price, the lender countered the offer at $1,100,000. Yes, a million-one.

Where the (**^(&*%$#@ did that come from. So the buyers walked and it went back on the market, but still at $939,000 - and last I heard the listing agent was having a heart to heart with the lender. And that must’ve clicked, because now it’s in contract again.

1495 E Canyon Spring Court  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by MacMorran & Assoc. R.E. Svcs.)

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listed just 8 days ago and it’s in contract

6660 N Saint Andrews Drive – a beautifully renovated older home in Skyline CC, listed at $900,000, in contract.

I know this house well, I represented the sellers in 2004 when they bought it for $755k - time flies. And I meant to write about it when it was listed last week, but something came up and it slipped my mind. Congratulations to all. 

6660 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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ready or not, another distress sale for Pima Canyon

According to Realty Trac, 1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place is now bank owned.

A spec, it was still under construction when listed for $2,900,000 ($624/sf) in 2006.
But no-go, gee I wonder why, and it left the market in July 07 at a mere $2,795,000 – not to return anytime soon.

Vacant during that time it was also available as a rental, first for $10k – but no-go there either – then for around $5k. And that worked and it was rented and occupied over the years (very un-spec-like behavior, most just plug along for sale) and then, while rented, it was listed for sale last November (after 4 years off the market) for $1,100,000 as a short sale. And it went to contract pronto, in 20 days, but as a first stage short sale contract, with just the owner signing off on the deal.

Meanwhile mr. lender, the one calling the shots, was, as usual, taking their sweet time and had not gotten around to giving it their blessing.

And now despite having an offer in hand it appears mr. lender has gone ahead and foreclosed. Which means everyone’s out of luck - the former owner, the tenant, and the intended buyer. Not to mention the listing and buyers agents. So much for the year of the short sale.

Sharpen your checkbooks, because, assuming they price it right, I’m sure there’ll be plenty of competition for this when it shows up as a foreclosure. 

1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(was listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br)

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was $799,000, is now $850,000

I’m seeing more of this. Homes on the market that are raising their list prices.

I saw one in Alta Vista that’s been for sale for a year, and today they raised the price 
$799 to $850.

What’s it all about, pray tell??

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listed just 14 days ago and it’s already in contract

That’s 6060 E Calle De Vita, a 2009 built, 3376 sf home in Rio Verde Vista listed at $1,035,000 ($307/sf)

Assuming this deal closes for somewhere near asking price, and given the quick time to contract that would be a reasonable assumption, it will join ranks with 2 other recent sales as the 3 highest $$ sales in RVV in the past 3 years.

One sale that tips the scales might be be a quirk, two are interesting, but three, that’s the start of something.

6060 E Calle De Vita Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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looking for a project to keep busy

How about finishing a partially built custom home in the foothills – built with steel frame construction, 4355 sf (according to the assessor), on 2.2 acres, 

 

with a massive tile roof and thick foam insulation

and views,

 

It’s at 2850 E Via Alcalde and it left the market last January at $1,075,000.
I wrote about it here > unfinished business <  in July 2010 when it was listed for $985k.
But it didn’t sell so they raised it to $1,075,000 and, strangely enough, it still didn’t sell.

And now time has taken its toll on expectations and it’s back today hoping for $550,000- ($126/sf). I haven’t seen it in more than a year so I can’t say what condition it’s in, but back then it looked very good. A 2/3 finished custom home that appeared to be very solidly built.

2850 E Via Alcalde Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

UPDATE – it’s now Monday and  they just dropped it to $400k.

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Red Cardinal Place changes hands again

That’s 6079 E Red Cardinal Place in Rio Verde Vista III – a newer home in a newer subdivision.

It sold in 03, when it was brand new, for $947,943
then in 05 for $960,000
then last April for $715,000
and it sold again yesterday for $775,000

Now we know prices have gone down, not up, over the last 12 months and nothing of any consequence was done to the house to improve it, so why did it sell for more now than then.  Also, last April’s sale took 77 days and this time it flew off the shelf in just 18.
(and zillow’s zestimate for this sale was $666,600 –  down about 7% from last years price.
And going by the numbers that sounds about right. But that’s not what happened, human nature must have gotten in the way, darnit!

 Here are the listings from both sales, maybe you can figure it out.

Yesterday’s sale
6079 E Red Cardinal Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Coldwell Banker)

Last April’s sale
6079 E Red Cardinal Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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I’ve heard that 2012 was going to be the year of the short sale, and now I see why

Banks pay delinquent borrowers $35,000 to sell their homes

CNNMoney.com

In an effort to cut their losses, banks are paying some struggling homeowners as much as $35,000 to sell their homes before they end up in foreclosure.

This new approach by the banks has startled plenty of homeowners, according to Elizabeth Weintraub, a Sacramento-area real estate agent who specializes in short sales.

"Initially, the homeowners are skeptical," she said. "The bank may have already turned down their request for a modification. Then, one day, they call and say, 'Let us give you some cash.'"

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a few sales today

From the million + group,
6070 N Desert Sun Court, in Ventana Canyon Estates, sold today for $1,075,000 ($234/sf) from a $1,199,000 list price that was reduced from $1.3 when it debuted last September.
and just for fun - zillow zestimated it at $1,003,200 – not bad for a long distance guess)
6070 N Desert Sun Court , Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

at the lower end,
we have 5885 E Calle Val. Calle Val’s sales over the years mimics the rise and fall of the market here in Tucson. It sold in 1997 for $250,000, in 2000 for $273,500, in 2004 for $389,000 and today for $365,000 ($147/sf). (zillow zestimated it at $380,500 - a bulls eye)
5885 E Calle Val, Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

and in the middle of the pack, but just
4264 N Placita De Sandra squeaked in with a $600k sale ($205/sf) in  Bellas Catalinas.
(zillow came up a bit short on this one – calling it $543,400)
4264 N Placita De Sandra Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Coldwell Banker)

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signs of life at the upper end

Yesterday it was 3632 E Windy Point Drive, today it’s 4803 E Placita Provida.
(both listed by Long Realty)

Listed at $1,195,000 ($322/sf) and $1,095,000 ($287/sf) respectively, they’re both in contract - Windy Point up in Foothills ll and Placita Provida, a 2011 built spec, in the newer subdivision of Montanas De Paz Il east of Swan Rd. And, btw, both gated.

That’s 2, where’s # 3

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dead wrong

Asked what I thought about the new listing at 3632 E Windy Point Drive I was less than enthusiastic about its chances. And it’s a terrific house. And I know it well, I listed and sold it for $1,050,000 in 2005.

And though there’ve been some nice upgrades done since then, I thought in this market- nah, it would be a tough road at $1,195,000 ($322/sf). But good thing they didn’t listen to me. Because after just 13 days it’s already in contract. And I’m guessing that, given the quick contract, the offer must be fairly close to list too. You can’t beat that.
Congratulations!

3632 E Windy Point Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

everything has a price

Take 5615 N Wilmot Road, which has been on and off the market since 2007. And as of today is finally reported in the first phase of a short sale contract from a much reduced $675,000 list price. hip-hip

Along the way I wrote about it a few times, most recently here> Having failed to sell while listed for $899,500 in 2004 – when the market was roaring along - 5615 N Wilmot Road was listed again, this time in December 2007, for $1,299,000. This, despite …

5615 N Wilmot Road, Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Rich Realty)

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in contract since Saturday, Feb 4

10 single family homes have gone to contract in the Catalina Foothills

8 listed from $153,500 to $429,000 (a very healthy showing)
1 listed at $750,000
1 listed at $1,195,000

a very paltry showing in the $600k  & up category – where 167 homes remain for sale

In 05 and 06 when prices were going thru the roof and high-end houses were flying off the shelf, the word on the street was that spending a million bucks just didn’t buy all that much house anymore. Which, I’m sure, only spurred sales even more. (125 sold at a million+ in 06 )

And now, when a million bucks buys a lot more house than you could ever have imagined back then, there just aren’t all that many people interested. (42 sold at a million+ in 2011)

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high or low end, buyers are waiting for the right price

Yesterday I mentioned a house in Pima Canyon where buyers waited almost 4 years for it to get down to what they considered to be the right price – $1,195,000, in that case, vs its initial list price of $2,600,000 > buyers are quite content to wait it out <

And today a little Golf Villa in Ventana that sold for $375,000 in1999 - and was listed in 2008 for $749,000 – sat and sat and was reduced and reduced until it got down to $425,000.
And that did it - it went to contract and sold today for $380,000 - a 4 year wait to get what it sold for in 99. 

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we’re bumping along at 2003 prices

In the 6 months from August 2003 to February 2004-
385 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $444,612/$360,000 at $156/sf

flash forward 8 years

To the 6 months from August 2011 to now, February 2012-
260 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $467,990/$361,000 at $155/sf

Want a more recent view – here’s what it looks like for the last 3 months

November 7, 2003 to February  7, 2004-
146 sold at average/median $479,965/$382,500 @ $163/sf

& now,

November 7, 2011 to today, February 7, 2012-
144 sold at average/median $494,792/$380,000 @ $158/sf

2003 prices!

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buyers are quite content to wait it out

And they demonstrate their resolve every single day here in the Tucson Foothills.

A good example for today is 1347 E Desert Garden Drive. It went to contract today listed at $1,195,000 ($259/sf) – hear-hear! Congratulations! yet another contract for Pima Canyon –
but not before taking a swing at $2,600,000 > $2,300,000 > $2,100,000 and on down, until it dropped to $1,195,000 two weeks ago – which only took about 4 years..

I also mentioned it in November when it dropped to $1,295,000, and I thought that would do it > now at 50% off its original asking price <

1347 E Desert Garden Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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January home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Sales that close in January are hatched from deals that were made in Nov/Dec – and because people are having fun during the holidays, rather than buying homes, fewer deals are made. 
So January sales numbers are usually low. And this January is about par for the course – at least for the course as it’s been during these post boom years. ( for single family homes only –
# sold/month & the median sale price for that month))

January 2012
36 sold
median sale price - $354,925

January 2011
35 sold
median sale price - $375,500

January 2010
39 sold
median sale price - $400,000

January 2009
24 sold
median sale price - $410,500

January 2008
34 sold
median sale price - $510,000

January 2007
42 sold
median sale price -$520,000

January 2006
54 sold
median sale price - $594,500

January 2005
84 sold
median sale price - $457,750

January 2004
47 sold
median sale price - $380,000

January 2003
56 sold
median sale price - $315,409

Also - Judging market prices based on one months sales is not terribly accurate or dependable way to go about it – there just aren’t enough sales in any one month to be representative of the market.  But if you’re going to do it anyway, as I have here, median prices– rather than average prices (which are quickly skewed by one or two large sales) offer a more dependable view.

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in contract since Monday Jan 30

25 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills this past week

20  priced $175,000 to $529,000
  3  priced from $875,000 to $995,000
  and 1 squeaked in at a million +, but just, @ $1,025,000

That was the extent of it in the foothills this past week. Maybe next week, after Super Bowl!

earlier entries tracking contracts this past week > on Monday,  8 homes went under contract today and Thursday,  in the last 3 days 

And that’s with a surging stock market, though, with everyone still counting their winnings, 
it may be too soon for the wealth effect to have kicked in.

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the lucky 13

Listed at $800k and up there are 13 lucky homes in contract. 13.
And with 119 for sale at $800k and up, you can see why I’d call them lucky.

Where are these 13 lucky homes located;

2 in Cat 10
1 in Cat 7
1 in Coronado Foothills Estates
1 in Foothills ll
3 in Pima Canyon
1 in Sabino Mountain
1 in Skyline Country Club
2 in Ventana Canyon Estates
1 in Ventana Reserve (which is not in Ventana CC)

So 11 of the 13 are in gated communities, 2 are not- Cat 7 and Ventana Reserve. 
Based on this admittedly skimpy evidence, you might conclude that higher-end buyers prefer their homes be in gated communities. And, skimpy evidence or not, you’d be absolutely correct. Many more high end buyers want to be in a gated community than not.
Plus, at that price, most of the choices are in gated communities - 119 for sale at $800k and up, 96 are in gated communities. 

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short sales, two steps forward, 3 steps back

After being in the first stages of a short sale contract, or contracts, since last July, the house at 7898 N Ancient Indian Drive in Pima Canyon is back on the market today 

Apparently a few different buyers made offers on the house in July or shortly thereafter.
And one of the offers was chosen and accepted by owner and forwarded to the lender (who appears to be those wonderful folks at Wells Fargo) for their stamp of approval. But for one reason or another it didn’t work out and the offer was rejected.

So they moved on to backup offer # 1 and forwarded it to Wells Fargo – but that one didn’t work out either – Strike 2. And backup offer # 2, no go, Striiike 3. So now, after 3 offers and 6 months with the listing in limbo, and the owners hoping to move on, it’s back to square 1.

7898 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

No, not all short sales go like this. Some are better than others.
But the one thing you can count on in a short sale is that nothing’s for sure – neither how long it will take nor what the outcome will be. And that’s regardless of how good your offer is.

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in the last 3 days

11 homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills
– 10 of them priced from $175,000 to $499,900 – then 1 at $1,025,000

so nothing between $600 to $999k and just one that’s just over a million

(and there are 170 for sale from $600k to $15.9 mil)

it was pretty much the same story a few days ago when > 8 homes went under contract today

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it sold, but it sure didn’t come easy

3208 E Via Palomita sold today for $1,750,000 ($279/sf) - after having been at it since  December 2008 when it debuted at $3,200,000. Congratulations to all!

This is the biggest sale in La Paloma in the last 2 years. And though 2nd place was close behind, at $1,640,000, it dropped off very steeply after that.

3208 E Via Palomita Tucson, AZ 85718 
(listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc.)

 

Atlanta, Anchorage or Austin, sellers confuse what they want for their home with what it’s actually worth

… she and her husband bought a four-bedroom home on a manmade lake in 1999 for $374,000. They spent $100,000 installing a pool, a hot tub, a basement bar and home theater.

When her husband lost his job as a sales executive at a consumer products company in 2007, the couple moved into a house that Ms. West had inherited from her mother in St. Augustine, Fla. They put the Dacula house on the market for $599,900.

They rejected several offers that they considered lowballs. “Everybody kept saying ‘Oh, it’s a great house, it will sell,’ ” Ms. West recalled. A contract for $447,000 fell through when the buyer could not secure a loan. Last month, the couple signed a contract for $360,000, effectively erasing previous gains and their large investment in improvements.

From The New York Times 
In Atlanta, Housing Woes Reflect Nation’s Pain

just keep thinking,  ‘Oh, it’s a great house, it will sell’

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