TheTucsonFoothills

slim pickins in the Mountain Estates at Ventana

In the last 18 months the Mountain Estates pulled out of what was a severe nose dive in sales - nothing sold in there from June 08 until February 2010. Nothing.

But things have sure changed, since then, five homes have sold – from $1,350,000 to $2,200,000 – actually two sold at $2.2 and another at $2.1 – and at that they are also three of the four highest priced sales in the entire Foothills since January 2010.
What a comeback!

Then today, 7205 E Stone Canyon Drive, on the market almost one year and listed at $2,295,000 ($452/sf), was cancelled – leaving just 6620 N EAGLE RIDGE, listed at $6,200,000 ($957/sf) as the only option if you're dying to be in the Mountain Estates.

6620 N EAGLE RIDGE Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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million $$$ home sales

Here’s a look at sales so far this year, and during the same period last year, for homes listed at a million $$ & up.This is for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills.

2011	2010
33 sold	30 sold
6 sold @ $925 to $975K	3 sold @ $915 to $999
27 sold @ $1.020 to $2.2	27 sold @ $1.0 to $2.2
avg/med sold- $1,319,314/$1,175,000	avg/med sold-$1,343,767/$1,175,000
@ avg $257/sf	@ avg $265/sf
@ avg 89.6% of list price	@ average 88.4% of list price
@ 112 avg dom (days on market)	@ 176 avg dom

It’s pretty much neck n neck with last year, with the only real difference being dom – down 36%, it seems. But given how days on market (dom) is calculated by the mls, the figures are not reliable and present a much more positive view than is actually the case. But they are consistent, at least, and always present a more positive view.  

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close, but no cigar

On June 4th I submitted an offer for buyers I’m representing on a short sale that had just come on the market.

The house was listed for $750,00 – that’s after having been listed for $1,899,000 & $1,750,000, and failing to sell – and my buyers offered $750,000. But for insurance we also submitted an escalation clause along with the $750,000 offer. The escalation clause stated that if there was a higher offer, then my buyers offer would automatically be raised by $2,500 more than that higher offer, up to a maximum of $780,000. But even with that we ended up coming in 2nd, because the other offer was for cash. No mortgage. And today we finally got word that the other offer had not only been fully accepted by the lender but had also made it thru the inspection period. So that’s it, it’s all but a done deal.

And other than knowing it was a cash, I don’t know what the other offer was. But I suspect it was also $750,000. But because it was cash, and didn’t involve the contingencies and uncertainties and strung out time-line of getting a jumbo mortgage these days, it was more of a sure thing for the seller & lender.

My buyers weren’t happy about how it turned out, but they made the best offer they were willing to make at the time and they were good sports about it. And while they’re optimistic that other opportunities will come along, and I’m sure they will, it’s also true there are fewer of those opportunities today than in the past. And there are also more buyers lurking around who are ready and able to pounce on a good deal.

But that’s at about a million and under. At the upper-end, at a million eight or two million or more, I think we may have only just scratched the surface.

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in the heat of July

54 single family homes sold in July in the Tucson Foothills for an average/median of $538,197/$433,373.

And, oddly enough, while June saw the highest monthly sales this year, with 65 sold, July, with 54, was the 2nd lowest sales month this year.

Yet average sale prices were higher in July than any other month – see >  and the winner is June < for a recap of monthly sales & prices.

Also, for the period of Jan 1 – July 31, we’re at 393 sold for an average/median of $490,631/$413,500.

During the same period last year 361 homes sold for an average/median of
$516,502/$411,500.

And we’re now down to just 370 homes listed for sale in the foothills. The fewest, by quite a few, in memory.

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calling all affluent Brazilian buyers

MIAMI — South Florida is the default capital of the country. Here in Miami-Dade County, one out of five households with mortgages is in foreclosure. Nearby Broward and Palm Beach counties are not far behind. Nearly 200,000 South Florida families are stuck in the mire of default. 

And yet much of Miami is gripped by a housing mania as the oversupply of distressed homes dries up and foreigners and investors swoon. Only a few years after it seemed there were so many unwanted high-rise condominiums that the only solution was to tear some of them down, there are plans to build even more.

Home sales in the metropolitan area during the first half of the year rose 16 percent from 2010 for the best spring since 2007, according to the research firm DataQuick, far outpacing the negligible growth in the rest of the country. Two-thirds of the sales were all cash.

Prices, after a brutal drop, are firming up or even increasing. During the first six months of the year, there were 439 sales for at least $2 million, up 13 percent from last year.

“People thought it would take at least a decade to get back to this point,” said Peter Zalewski, founder of Condo Vultures, a real estate consultant.

“The Brazilians walk in, they don’t even negotiate,” said Mr. Dezer, who said he would announce two new projects by the end of the year. “It’s a no-brainer for them.”

Read all about it, From NYTimes.com

By DAVID STREITFELD
Published: July 26, 2011

Affluent Buyers Reviving Market for Miami Homes

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BIG $$$ vacation markets stabilizing

From WSJ.com

Vacation Homes: Why It May Be Time to Buy

I love this comment >  "People have frugality fatigue," says John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. in Irvine, Calif.

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HURRY! WHILE SUPPLIES LAST

the supply of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills is dwindling

July 17, 2011 – just 383 single family homes listed for sale, including 68 listed at $1,000,000 and up

July 2010 – 464 for sale/98 at $1,000,000 and up

July 2009 – 509 for sale/114 at $1,000,000 and up

July 2008 – 566 for sale/147 at $1,000,000 and up

UPDATE – I stopped at 08 but then someone asked about 2007, so I’ll add 07 and while I’m at it I’ll throw in 06. No charge. But I only have the number of overall homes for sale for those years, with no breakout of how many were at $1.0m & up.

July 2007 – 480

July 2006 – 377  (this is just after the market peaked in late May early June 06)
so stepping into the past we’re now at 2006 inventory levels and somewhere between 2003 to 2004 for prices. 

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just listed, just sold

First time on the market in Alta Vista, 6432 N Placita Del Zopilote is listed for $975,000 ($280/sf). Built in 2008, 3483 sf, single story, pool, with an 800 bottle wine cellar. 6432 N Placita Del Zopilote Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

And a new listing in Cat 10. And without even seeing it in person I’m going to bet it doesn’t last two weeks. 2004 built, slump block construction with a mortar wash, 3508 sf, on 1.86 acres, single story, 3 beds + den, 3 baths, 3 car, views. A Foothills classic.
4421 N Placita Camaleon Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

And 7203 N Cloud Canyon Place was relisted for the same $1,990,000 ($358/sf) its been since last June. At that price it has the distinction of being the lowest priced home for sale in the Canyons. And by quite a bit too. The next one up is $2,995,000 @ $475/sf, and up they go from there.  7203 N Cloud Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

In La Paloma Estates, 5691 N Calle De Lucimiento was listed 28 days ago but didn’t show up in the MLS until yesterday. And today it’s listed as under contract. So what gives. What gives is, it appears that this was an arranged marriage. And aren’t they lucky, selling without having  to go through the rigamarole of countless showings at all times of day with strangers traipsing through your house. Listed at $1,295,000, it sold for $1,135,000 ($256/sf). 5691 N Calle De Lucimiento Tucson, AZ 85718  (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

Over in Ventana 6450 N Desert Wind Circle sold for $812,500 ($215/sf). That’s the good news. The other news is the sellers paid $1,122,500 ($299/sf) for it in 2006.
But hey, that’s the market and if you want to sell you’ve got to bite the bullet.
 6450 N Desert Wind Circle , Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

And in this corner, 4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas finally sold for $700k off a much reduced $725 listing. That’s after starting out in 08 shooting for $1,150,000.
4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas Tucson, AZ 85718 (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

another big contract in the Mountain Estates at Ventana

on this hot day in July 6921 E Rock Ledge Place, in the Mountain Estates at Ventana Canyon, has gone to contract. First listed in April 08 for $4,500,000 it’s in contract today from its current $2,395,000 list price, $445/sf. Disappointing perhaps, but, in these times, still a very big sale.

6921 E Rock Ledge Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

In the last year or so the Mountain Estates managed to pull out of what was a long dry spell. There were two sales last year over $2mil, a 3rd at $1,700,000 and a short sale that went for $1,350,000. In that time, those were the only sales in the Foothills over $2mil.

There are now just two homes for sale up there, one at $2,295,000 and another at $6,200,000.

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for sale and sold by price range

If someone asks ‘how’s the RE market doing’, tell them it depends on what price range they’re talking about.

Up to $599k, it’s doing marvelously. More homes sold in the last 6 months than are currently for sale, leading to an increasingly lean supply.

At $2.0 & up, the picture couldn’t be more different. 2 of the 4 homes sold were foreclosures that went for cheap-cheap, as there continues to be very little demand at this price range. And the clock ticks louder every day, as most of these homes are well into a year, or two, or more, on the market.

(The For Sale column shows the # currently For Sale + the average list price
SOLD shows the # SOLD since 1/1/11 + the average sold price + months of inventory (moi))

Price	For Sale	SOLD
$0 – $599,999	243 at $395,870	257 at $343,557 (5.6 moi)
$600,000 – $999,999	76 at $799,866	65 at $705,275 (7)
$1.0 – $1.499	34 at $1,217,938	15 at $1,076,440 (13.6)
$1.5 – $1.999	17 at $1,781,176	7 at $1,611,821 (14.6)
$2.0 & UP	17 at $4,292,059	4 at $1,800,000 (25.5)

At $600k to $999 10 more homes sold this year than during the same period last year, though for about $20k less, on average + last year at this time there were 109 for sale vs 76 this year. So with just 7 months inventory this price range is now out of the woods and well on its way to being a normal, balanced market.

At $1.0 and up is where the trouble starts. $1.0 to $1.499 is off just a tad from last year – 17 sold same period last year/15 this year. But look at moi.

$1.5 to $1.999 is neck n’neck with last year – 8 sold last year/7 this  year, ditto moi.

(this data is for single family homes only - no condos, no townhomes – listed and sold by the Tucson Association of Realtors/MLS)

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a quickie sale in Pima Canyon

In its first time up for sale, 1980 E Desert Garden Drive sold in 40 days. It was listed on April 19th for $1,200,000 and was already in contract on May 29th. 
And it closed today for $950,000.

When it went to contract on 5/29 I assumed they got pretty close to their asking price. I said so right here > it must be the views <

That’s usually how it works. Sellers are quite inflexible for the first two or three months and then, as time goes by, they begin to see the writing on the wall.

But that’s not how this one worked. And I wonder why. You list for $1.2 and 40 days later accept $950,000 – 21% less. hmmm

Was it because someone pointed out to someone that at $950,000 ($290/sf) they’d be tied with one other home for the highest $$$/sf sale price in PC this year. And that at, let’s say, $1.1 they’d be $46/sf higher than the highest sale this year.

Or was it something else.

1980 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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what’s in contract

There are 99 homes in contract right now in the Tucson Foothills

12 are listed as ACTIVE CAPA – indicating that they are either short sales (and 10 of them are) or the contract is contingent on the buyers home closing escrow prior to this sale being completed. And surprisingly, this dirty dozen has an average list price of $937,583 - way higher than our normal average. Normal, for these days anyway. But four of them are listed at $1.250, $1.299, $1.850 and $2.650. And that tilts the average.

Then there are 48 listed as ACTIVE Contingent – 1st stage of being in contract and probably still in the inspection period. So they’re vulnerable to falling out of contract because of this or that – the condition of the house as discovered during an inspection, an appraisal that comes in under the agreed to sale price, buyers changing their minds, etc. etc. They are at an average list price of $512,526, and that’s more like it.

And finally, 39 homes listed as PENDING. They’re through the inspection period and, presumably, fast on their way to close escrow. They are at an average list of $480,501.

Also, of this group of 99 homes in contract, 12 are listed from $1,000,000 to $2,995,000. And there are 385 homes still for sale, so with 99 in contract we’re looking at 25% of the total inventory in contract. And for the middle of a long, hot (and wet) summer, that’s not too shabby.

99 homes in contract
(the link will expire in 30 days – August 8th – and the number of homes shown will change as the number of homes in contract changes. it’s 99 at 5:25 PM on 7/9/11)

Here are some random past posts showing how many homes were in contract then,

homes under contract in the Tucson Foothills today (March 10, 2008)

the good news is there are 74 homes under contract inthe Foothills 
(March 5, 2009)

under contract now (October 6, 2009)

91 homes in contract in the foothills today (April 12, 2010)

when was the last time a house went to contract in (October 10,2010)

more homes are going to contract, 3/16/2011 (March 16, 2011)

**(The links to the homes in contract in these past posts are by now totally dead)

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and the winner is June

more homes sold in June than in any  other month this year. And they sold for a higher average sold price, though often by just a scosche, than any other month this year

June - 65 sold at $502,248

May - 57 at $501,468

April – 64 at $500,467

March – 61 at $490,733

Feb – 55 at $447,833

January – 35 at $438,256

And more homes sold this June, and for more $$$, than last June –
June 2010 - 57 sold at $482,010

June 09 – just 47 sold but at $532,789

June, yeah!

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June sales in the Tucson Foohills

If you’re wondering why I haven’t reported June sales, it’s because I’ve just been too busy to get to it.

But it looks like I will tomorrow – and the top line numbers are not too shabby –
65 single family homes sold for an average of $502,248

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at a million and up

How are sales doing at a million and up,

25 homes listed at a million $$ and up have sold so far this year, 
(3 sold for less that a million) the average sale price was $1,319,174 at $260/sf with the % of sale price to list price (SP/LP) at 90.1%. (so on average they sold for 90.1% of what they were listed for – well not really, but more on that later)

Anyway, How does that compare to the same period in 2010;
26 homes listed at a million $$ and up sold in 2010, (2 sold for less than a million)the average sale price was $1,367,269 at $269/sf. And the % of SP/LP was 88.8%.

how about 09 (in the rubble of the collapse)
21 listed at a million $$ and up sold in 09 (2 sold for less than a million) the average sale price was $1,216,857 at $269/sf. The % SP/LP was 84.8%

and, finally, 2008 (before it all really hit the fan)
37 homes listed at mil and up sold in those balmy, carefree days.
And they sold for an average of $1,499,358 at $325/sf at 91% SP/LP.

CAVEAT CAVEAT- if you don’t know this already- the % SP/LP should be taken with an extra large grain of salt. Why?

Because as the MLS calculates it, the % SP/LP is based on the latest list price.
That’s after all price cuts & after, perhaps, being relisted & relisted again and maybe even again.

So if a home were first listed for $1,700,000, reduced to $1.6, then to $1.5, then relisted at $1.2 and eventually reduced to $1.0, and then it sold for $950,000, guess what, it would show up in the official statistics as having sold for 95% of list price. Talk about making the numbers say anything you want.

Anyway, since the SP/LP is calculated in the same peculiar way each year, we can
at least compare one year to another and see that high priced homes now appear to be selling for closer to LP than they have been in the last couple of years.

And that’s a good thing. Because a tighter relationship between SALE PRICE & LIST PRICE means that buyers and sellers are in closer agreement on where prices should be. And why, you ask, are buyers and sellers now in closer agreement?

Well, because after holding out for a few years, sellers finally realized that the only way they were going to sell was to reduce their price to what buyers were willing to pay. That’s it, it’s that simple.

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sold in Alta Vista

6549 N Calle De La Lluvia sold for $1,020,000 ($237/sf) from a $1,095,000 list price that was reduced from it’s original list of $1,299,000.
for more on this little corner of Alta Vista see > packing them in in Alta Vista <

Also, fyi - when this house was listed last September I noted that there were 15 homes for sale in Alta Vista > the more the merrier < today there are 7 for sale.

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only at the right price

7525 N Camino Sin Vacas sold today for $775,000 (145.24/sf) off an $849,00 list reduced from $998,000 when it started out last October

7525 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

2002 prices?

Listed in March 09 for $1,495,000, 6433 N Placita Del Zopilote went to contract today from its most recent list price of $1,195,000 ($249/sf). Hurrah!

However, Zopilote last sold in May 02 for $1.2

6433 N Placita Del Zopilote , Tucson, AZ 85750 (that’s in Alta Vista)

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the improving market has not escaped Cat 10

In Catalina Foothills Estates 10;

7 for sale – from $799,000 to $1,575,000, average list = $1,168,429

4 sold in the last 6 months, average sold = $1,410,000 Including a short sale that went for $700k $162/sf. (and, yes, in a twist on the usual price gap between homes for sale and homes sold -  the average sold price  is actually  higher – quite a bit higher -  than the average list price

= about a 10 month supply of homes in Cat 10 (a huge improvement)

+ 3 in contract @ $1,299,000, $1,045,000 and a foreclosure @ $514,900($134/sf) that was listed at $1,395,000 and $1,295,000 in 07 and early 08 – and went nowhere

And of those for sale a couple of them have been around long enough to have become fixtures - remnants of the RE bust, perhaps they should charge admission - while a couple of others are well on their way. Nevertheless, the big picture in Cat 10 is much brighter than it was one and two years ago.

June 2009 - have you heard, there’s a 15 month supply of homes for sale in the foothills, that’s a fact

November 09 - even more to choose from in Cat 10

January 2010 - the more the merrier on Camino Sumo

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what’s happening out there

They’re cutting prices up in the Canyons, they are.
7431 N Secret Canyon Drive left the market a year ago at $5,950,000 and returned today at an even $5mil. ($519/sf). Such a deal.

And just down the street at 7417 N Secret Canyon Drive they cut their price to $3,495,000 ($483/sf) from $3,690,000 from $3,990,000 from $4,500,000.
Unlike many areas of the foothills, home sales in the Canyons have yet to pick up – 8 homes for sale from $1,990,000 to $9,995,000 averaging $4,370,625 at $569/sf & just 1 sale since Jan 2010 - a foreclosure that went for$1,850,000 ($267/sf), 63% off  it’s original list price.  

On the market since January when it was listed for $899,000 5320 N Camino Real went to contract today off an $819,000 ($186/sf) list. Described as Joesler-like it
is a classic, 1945 built, foothills home

___________________________________________________________________

In Sin Vacas,  2921 E Calle Sin Pecado went to contract after about 6 months off a $679,900 ($200/sf) list.

And in Coronado Foothills Estates 6821 N Montezuma Drive sold for $570,000 ($230/sf) off a $589,000 list price after just a few months.

_______________________________________________________________

And a little closer to home, 5009 N Rock Canyon Rd closed today at $720,000 ($186/sf) from a $725,000 list price. I represented the buyers.

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inventory is down in the Tucson Foothills

Right now we’re down to 396 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills, including 70 listed at $1.0mil & Up.

June 2010 there were 474 single family homes for sale with 104 at $1.0mil+

June 2009 – 559 for sale with 131 at $1.0mil+

June 2008- 558 for sale with 150 at $1.0mil+

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a few good sales

5535 N Calle La Cima sold the other day for $750,000 ($165/sf) off a $799 list that was reduced from $1,050,000 when it started last August. But given that they paid $783,500 for it in October 2008, the sellers got off real easy - for more on La Cima, the two story in a one story neighborhood, see > coming full circle <
5535 N Calle La Cima Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And the corks must be popping over in Alta Vista. 6101 N Paseo Zaldivar, a 2011 built spec, sold for $1,850,000 ($312/sf) – the 2nd highest sale price in Alta Vista.  Going all the way back to 1999, there’s just one higher sale, and oddly enough, that was also a spec and also on Paseo Zaldivar.
6101 N Paseo Zaldivar Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by long Realty)

And with the sale the other day of 4068 E Playa De Coronado, there’s nothing left at the Summit at Finger Rock - it’s SOLD OUT - where, until this year, it looked pretty bleak. 4068 went for $1,050,000 ($308/sf) off a range price listing of $1,050,000 - 1,125,000. And worth noting is that of the 4 homes sold up there this year, 4068 went for the highest $$/sf, by far. It was $308, next was $261, then $232 then $202. And so, not only did the buyers go for it but, apparently, the appraiser did too.
4068 E Playa De Coronado Tucson, AZ 85718 (also listed by Long Realty)

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bidding wars, they’re not unheard of anymore

Bidding wars, where two or more buyers compete for the same property, which were fairly common during the boom, but have been pretty much unheard of since then, are making a comeback.

On two very recent transactions where I’m representing the buyers - which are still active transactions so I won’t disclose the details - we ended up in bidding wars.  And on both deals there were not just two but three bidders vying for the homes. The first deal went very close to asking price, and we got that one. And on the 2nd one, where our offer was well over asking price, we were still beat out by a better offer.

There are buyers out there and they’re getting bolder and more aggressive about getting what they want. 

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it’s just a matter of finding the right buyer

6942 N Longfellow Lane, up in Coronado Foothills Estates, is in contract after about 7 months on the market.

Longfellow - a 1976 built, 2 story burnt adobe with magnificent mountain views and nice privacy - sold in 2003 for $530k and then had a complete and gorgeous renovation. New everything, and really good stuff too. And it was listed for sale in February 09 for $1,195,000 – and I think everyone was convinced that the gorgeous renovation would overcome the fact that it was a 2 story with living areas up and all bedrooms down. But it didn’t. And it was reduced and reduced until it sold in October 09 for $950,000. And just one year later those owners wanted to sell and they bit the bullet and listed it for $869,900.  And then they bit harder and reduced it to $799k ($150/sf) and bingo.

It’s a wonderful house, beautifully renovated, and at this price a real bargain, like getting Tiffany for Target prices, but it’s still a real 2 story too.
6942 N Longfellow Lane Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And 7604 N Camino Sin Vacas, in as dramatic a setting as I’ve seen and with amazing views, also found a buyer this week.

And in a setting like that the driveway is also pretty steep and dramatic, and not for the faint of heart. But once you get up there you’re, literally, above it all.

It last sold in 2001 for $1,080,000, then was listed in Feb 2010 for $1,295,000, where it stayed until this Feb when it was reduced to $1,100,000.

7604 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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what are buyers buying right now

Right now there are 107 homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills & 413 remain for sale

Of the 107 in contract;

73 are priced from $0 to $599,999  (250 are for sale)

23 are from $600,000 to $999,999 (89 for sale)

11 are from $1,000,000 & up (75 for sale)

average list price of those in contract is $545,711  vs $786,599 for those still for sale

see  the homes in contract now  (the number of homes in contract is constantly changing – so the number you see will very likely be more or less than 107) 

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you can ask whatever you want

After selling for $1,027,500 in June 05, 5360 N Salida Del Sol was listed in March 08 for $1,395,000. It then spent two years on the market losing value and finally sold yesterday for $825,000.

5360 N Salida Del Sol Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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May home sales

that’s for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills

this May 2011 - 52 57 sold (average sale price= $509,648 $501,468

May 2010 - 59 sold/$467,395

May 2009 – 41 sold/$510,266

May 2008 – 57 sold/$622,051

May 2007 – 65 sold/$709,866

so, for what it’s worth, May prices are closest to where they were in May 2009
(when many of us, myself included, thought the worst was over)

May 2006 – 82 sold/$628,411

May 2005 – 108 sold/$625,082

May 2004 – 115 sold/$505,005

May 2003 -  97 sold/$422,973

and closer still to May 2004

and in April 64 homes sold at an average of $500,467
and 61 sold in March at an average of $490,733
February you say, 55 sold at $447,833
January, 35 sold at $438,256

Sale prices rose every May from 03 thru 07, then fell in  08, 09 and 10 and are moving up again as of this May. And prices have also risen every month this year thru May - even though the number of homes sold is down a tad. 

But June is not starting off very promising with the Dow way down and the dire pronouncements for housing and the economy

Stocks Drop Sharply on Disappointing Economic Reports

Housing Imperils Recovery
Home Prices Sink to 2002 Levels; Consumer Confidence Falls as Pessimism Grows

YEAH! 7539 N Whisper Canyon Place sold yesterday

it went for $1,237,500 ($287/sf) from a $1,295,000 list price, reduced from its January debut of $1,375,000 (listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

then again, the sellers paid $1,625,000 ($377/sf) for it in April 07

OUCH!

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it must be the views

Just 41 days on the market and 1980 E Desert Garden Drive is under contract from a $1,200,000 ($367/sf) list price. That’s behind the pearly gates in Pima Canyon and has to be the quickest contract in PC in many moons.

… its got them coming

and going

1980 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

I wish them well but I can’t help wondering how the appraisal will go.
It’s listed for $1.2, $367/sf and, since it went to contract so quickly, lets assume it went for reasonably close to asking – say $1.1 which works out to $336/sf. Fine & dandy.

But the 6 homes that have sold in PC since Jan 1 sold for an average of $236/sf - 
with the highest at $290, then $248/sf and so on.

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when the right buyer comes along …

way up near the top of Skyline CC, 5000 E Oakmont Drive went to contract today.
It was first listed last July for $1,590,000 ($219/sf) and they never cut the price, not even a little bit. And it’s a biggie, 7261 sf, and an oldie, built in 74, and has an indoor pool,  5000 E Oakmont Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage )

_________________________________________________________________

And over in Ventana CC, 7311 E Thimble View Way, an interesting house that was first listed in November 09 for $1,495,000 also went to contract today. 
But not before dropping down to $999,000 ($211/sf) - quite a good deal for what it is and where it is 
7311 E Thimble View Way Tucson, AZ 85750
(Listed by Long Realty)

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a classic burnt adobe goes to contract

Up in Cat 9 - 6856 N Solaz Cuarto, on the market since October and listed at $899,000 ($252/sf) went to contract today.

It was purchased in 2004 for $679,000 and remodeled throughout, including a pretty spectacular new high end kitchen.

 

I have no idea what it went for, but if you’re looking for a beautifully updated classic burnt adobe, well located and with views, they are few and far between. So they don’t come cheap.

6856 N Solaz Cuarto Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by long Realty)

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packing them in in Alta Vista

First listed last September for $1,299,000, 6549 N Calle De La Lluvia went to contract yesterday listed at $1,095,000 ($255/sf). (listed by Long Realty)
6549 N Calle De La Lluvia Tucson, AZ 85750

This is one of about 18 homes located in a pocket of the northeast corner of Alta Vista that was zoned, or rezoned, CR-4, allowing multiple homes/acre of land. While the rest of Alta Vista is CR-1, with one home/builders acre, or minimum 36,000 sf.
This house in on 0.35 acres or approximately 15,246 sf.

 

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looking at home sales in Ventana Country Club

There are 33 homes for sale in Ventana CC and they run the gamut from $345,000
to $6,200,000, for an average list price of $1,133,582 at $294/sf.

But just 7 homes sold in Ventana in the last 6 months, making for a very hefty 
28 month supply. And 5 of them sold in the $400 to $600k range, for a dismally low average sold price of just $686,571 $228/sf.

But things may be changing in Ventana. Very recently 5 homes have gone to contract - 4 already this month and 1 last month - at an average of $965,200. 
So 5 homes to contract in just a few weeks is potentially a big improvement from
7 sold in 6 long months.

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the rate of price drops is dropping

Homes prices in the Tucson Foothills peaked in 2006 when the average sold price for the year was $703,616. (that’s for single family homes sold thru the tucson association realtors mls)

Since then average sold prices have dropped, year after year.

From 06 to 07 average sold prices dropped from $703,616 to $676,913, down 3.8%

from 07 to 08 they went from $676,913 to $614,164 a 9.3% drop

and they dropped 12.9% from 08 to 09,  and then in 2010 the rate of price drops slowed – dropping 6.3% from 09  to 2010.

and from 2010 vs this year they’re down just 2.3%.

What next?

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someone snapped up a good deal

In Alta Vista, 6261 E Placita Del Nido went to contract after just 12 days listed for $600,000. That’s after selling for $824,900 in 2006 - and that’s about right – down 27% from its height of the market price in 06.

But like many others they thought they might get lucky and escape the grimy clutches of the real estate bust and listed it in 08 for more than they paid in 06.
First for $879,900, then $849,000, then $799,000 and got nowhere. Then they took the big leap,

6261 E Placita Del Nido Tucson, AZ 85750

ditto

7331 E Desert Moon Loop also went to contract today, this from a $629,000 list price after selling in 05 for $875,000. And after listing last July for $885,000, with no results.

7331 E Desert Moon Loop , Tucson, AZ 85750

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it’s going to be a little lonely at Campbell & Cmo Miraval

If you’ve traveled on Campbell between River & Skyline anytime in the last 5 years, you’ve seen it almost every day > OPEN HOUSE > OPEN HOUSE > at Campbell and Camino Miraval.

Well that may be the last of it. 2420 E Camino Miraval, which surely holds title to the house held OPEN more than any other in the foothills, went to contract today.

I sure hope the buyer came from an OPEN HOUSE

2420 E Camino Miraval Tucson, AZ 85718

the average list price of homes going to contract is going up

On April 19th I wrote that in the last 2 weeks 31 homes went to contract at a dismal average list price of $434,266

and one week later, on April 22nd, I wrote that 22 homes have gone to contract in the last 7 days and the average price for those 22 contracts went up, not down, to $567,186

and now, going back to May 1st, 22 homes have gone to contract at an average list price of $600,952 @($176/sf)

Does this mean prices are going up?

No it doesn’t mean that, not at all. But what it does show, is that more higher priced homes, homes above $600k, are going to contract. In this latest go-round 9 of the 22 homes to contract are listed above $600k, including 2 over $1.0. That’s 40%, a much higher share of contracts going to homes above $600k than in the past.
(on 2/12 this year it was 28%, on 11/15/2010 it was 22%,

Given recent market activity, which I’ve been reporting for the last month or so, the real estate market in the Tucson Foothills appears to have taken a positive turn and appears to be gaining momentum and getting stronger day by day.

Is this a flash in the pan? It doesn’t feel like it to me. But we’ll see.

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more contracts

5535 N Calle La Cima - the 2 story in a 1 story neighborhood - went to contract today listed at $799,000($175/sf) A spec, La Cima was built in 06 on land split from an old Joesler, and was listed in 07 for $1,500,000 and sold in October 08 for $783,500 as one of the first short sales to show its face in the foothills.

And in Ventana Canyon Estates 6450 N Desert Wind Circle, listed at $899,000 ($238/sf), also found a buyer today. The sellers paid $1,122,500 for it in 06.

And a foreclosure at 6019 N Pinchot Rd that the former owners paid $1,399,500 for in 04, 04, went to contract today listed at $899,900 by mr lender.

see all three > 5535 N Calle La Cima Tucson, AZ 85718/6450 N Desert Wind Circle Tucson, AZ 85750/6019 N Pinchot Road Tucson, AZ 85750

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fewer homes for sale

Looking at the number of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills, for this month and for May in years past, we’re now at the lowest inventory of homes for sale in 5 years – both in total inventory and in the luxury market.

	total SFR for sale	for sale at $1.0+
May 2011	423	77
“       2010	488	108
“      2009	583	154
“      2008	587	159
“      2007	485	??

For some reason I can’t find data on the mil+ market in 2007.

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almost seems like old times

The last available home at the Summit at Finger Rock -  4068 E Playa De Coronado -
went to contract this afternoon off a $1,050,000 ($308/sf) list price. (listed by Long Realty)

This follows 4017 E Playa De Coronado – listed at $999,950 ($277/sf) - in contract on April 12. And 3947 E Ina Road – listed at $749,000 ($216/sf) in contract on April 28 and the sale of 4332 E Playa De Coronado – sold for $1,100,000 ($232/sf) as a short sale on 1/31.

This is a big turnaround for the Summit which, until this year, had very lackluster sales.

And not to be outdone, Skyline Belair had three homes go to contract this week.

The other day I wrote >  two contracts in Skyline Belair in one day < and today a 3rd home went to contract. I represent the buyers.

And 5009 N Rock Canyon Road – on the market just one month went to contract the other day off a $725,000 list, I also represent the buyers. (listed by long Realty)

The other day I reported that 2002 E Quiet Canyon Drive, in PC, had sold. But because it didn’t show up until a few hours later I failed to mention that
2063 E Quiet Canyon Drive – across the street – had also sold that same day. It was listed on January 6th this year for $1,349,000 and sold the other day for $1,200,000 ($290/sf). In March I had mentioned it here > tell me the high-end isn’t picking up

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someone got a very good deal in the Canyons

7454 N Secret Canyon debuted in March 09 as a 2009 built spec home listed for
$5.0 mil. And along the way it fell into mr lenders hands and finally sold today for $1,850,000 ($267/sf).

This is a beautifully built house with fine details, masonry construction and in pristine condition, etc, etc.
The real thing.

7454 N Secret Canyon Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Toma Partners)

I wrote about it > if you missed it the 1st time round, or the 2nd, or even the 3rd,

The sticky  wicket here is there are 7 homes for sale in the Canyons from $1,990,000 to $9,995,000 at an average of $580/sf.

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two contracts in Skyline Belair in one day

I was out with buyer clients of mine yesterday and we were taking a 2nd look at a few homes we’d seen earlier in the week. It finally got down to two homes that they were interested in and talking about which one to make an offer on. And both of them are in Skyline Belair. One had been on the market since last September and the other was listed just three weeks ago.

So I called the listing agent of one of them to ask a few questions and was told they had just gotten an offer on it a few hours ago. But they hadn’t accepted yet and, if we wanted, there was still time to get our offer in. My clients decided not to get involved in that and we moved on to the 2nd house.

So I called that listing agent, also to ask a few questions, and was told they had not one, but two offers on the table, that had come in earlier in the day, but they hadn’t accepted yet and if we wanted, there was still time to get a 3rd offer in.

For a minute I thought they must be kidding, pulling my leg, some inside joke or something.  But no, no joke.

And then today both of them showed up in the mls as under contract. So there probably wasn’t even much back and forth with offers and counter offers.

There’s been just one sale in Skyline Belair so far this year and just one other home is in contract. And 9 for sale. Yet 2 went to contract yesterday,

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don’t miss the boat

In Pima Canyon, 2002 E Quiet Canyon Drive sold today.

Quiet Canyon entered the market in February 2010 listed at $1,200,000 and sold today for $920,000 ($227/sf) off a $949,000 list.  And while the sellers may not agree, I think they did quite well. They paid $850,000 for it in October 2003.

But, more to the point, since it’s on the southern rim of Pima Canyon, it backs up to old Ina Rd – not  a terribly busy road, but not a quiet, meandering little lane either. And not a plus in anyone’s book.

This sale, and the sale I mentioned the other day - by the side of the road – are, to me, sure signs the market is getting stronger. For all the time we were in the depths of the downturn buyers were extremely fussy about what they bought, and sales like this, with homes backing up to a road, just didn’t happen. Not unless they were an absolute steal. 2002 E Quiet Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Realty Executives)

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blogging vs working

I’ve absent from the blog lately because I’ve been very busy, non-stop really, working with buyers. I hope to be back soon, meanwhile, enjoy the break.
JS

April home sales in the Tucson Foothills

51 homes sold in April for an average of $511,027 ($165/sf)

how does that compare to April in years past

Last April 47 sold for an average of $514,083 ($181/sf)

April 2009, 36 sold for an average of $471,847 ($179/sf)

April 2008, 65 sold for an average of $565,513 ($248/sf)

April 2007, 72 sold for an average of $692,373 ($235/sf)

so for April anyway, sales are up and prices are holding their own

and compared to earlier this year, prices are up a few bucks
(51 sold in April for $511,027 ($165/sf))

57 sold in March for $489,556 ($162/sf)

55 sold in February for $447,833

33 sold in January for $447,165

more evidence that the worst is past

UPDATE/CORRECTION – 55 homes sold this April, not 51 as reported (a few were either late to report, or I jumped the gun and reported too soon)

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contracts

31 homes went to contract in the last two weeks at an average list price of $434,266

31 in contract in two weeks isn’t bad, but the $434k average price is dismal

Including the 31 in contract in the last two weeks, there are 117 homes, total, in contract at an average list of $535,466

117 in contract is also good, really good – a month ago there were 101 in contract, see > more homes are going to contract, 3/16/2011 and two months ago there were 82 in contract, see > what’s selling

but the average prices are bopping all over the place and right now they’re bopping lower

the 31 homes that went to contract in the last two weeks went at an average of $434,266
the 117 total now in contract are at $535,466
the 101 in contract a month ago were at $590,514
and the 82 in contract two months ago were at $541,340.

Yesterday I wrote that the market seemed to be losing steam. But in fact, counting  overall contracts it is not. But what’s happened is that lower priced homes are carrying the day while contracts at the mid thru upper-end are petering out.

nothin to it

3739 E Windy Point Drive was listed 3 days ago for $500k and went to contract yesterday. It last sold in 01 for $430k.

3739 E Windy Point Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

that is, as long as you price it right 
4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas, which also got a contract yesterday, has been at it since February 2008. Yes, 3 long years with the occasional break for good behavior.  And for what.
It was first listed for $1,150,000 and reduced in dribs and drabs, eventually getting relisted (new agent/new broker) just 2 weeks ago and reduced to the magic $725K and, bingo, a buyer came along and signed on the dotted line.

4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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shadow hills is doing quite nicely

There are 9 homes for sale in Shadow Hills – average list price, $488,399

And 13 homes sold in the last 6 months – average sold price, $466,962

so shadow hills is down to a very lean 4 month supply of homes

and a key factor to a harmonious marketplace, the price of homes being offered for sale and the price of homes selling is in alignment in shadow hills.
-the average list price of all homes for sale  is $488,399 -
-the average sold price of all homes sold is $466,962 – just 4.3% less than those for sale

Whereas in the foothills overall there’s a gaping gap between the price of what’s for sale and what’s selling – the average list price is $795,623 while the average sold price is just $474,420 – a whopping 40% less. How can that be? Well, that’s because lower priced homes are selling very well, and, while many higher priced homes are available for sale, relatively few are selling – propping up the average list while holding down the average sold.

That’s not the case in shadow hills where, apparently, everything is selling.

And there are also 5 homes in contract in SH.

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Monday, Monday

Plenty of action in the $350 to $600k range

6 homes went to contract today,

4601 N Paseo Tubutama - Tucson, AZ 85750 – off a $397,000 list
3842 N Camino Sinuoso , Tucson, AZ 85718 – $399,500
8191 E Sabino Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750 – $425,000
4071 E Bujia Primera , Tucson, AZ 85718 – $450,000 after just 21 days
6161 N Via Jaspeada , Tucson, AZ 85718 – $550,000
4519 N Via Bellas Catalinas , Tucson, AZ 85718 – $629,000, after just 7 days
6 to contract

+ 2 sales

4930 N Bonita Ridge Avenue , Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $550K off a $599 list
2019 E Miraval Quinto , Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $575 off a $625 list
Bonita Ridge/Miraval Quinto SOLD

& 2 new high-end listings

In Skyline Country Club, 6702 N Los Leones Drive  Tucson, AZ 85718, sold for $825k in 04 and is back today asking $1,175,000. (listed by long Realty)

and the crème de la crème,  7391 N Finger Rock Place Tucson, AZ 85718, (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty) available today for the first time for $2,995,000, joins an impressive group up in the Canyons. With Finger Rock there are now 7 homes for sale priced $1,990,000 to $9,995,000. Yet nothing has sold since July 08. But there is 1 in escrow, a foreclosure, reduced from $5.0 to $2.2 and, word is, in contract at well under $2mil. Not a pretty picture.

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cha-ching cha-ching - Cat 10 comps get a big boost

In the last year the 8 homes that sold in Catalina Foothills Estates 10 sold for an average of $217/sf – (with the highest $/sf at $262, then $244, $236 …

And then today - 4655 N Placita Roca Blanca sold for $318/sf – and then – moments later, 3252 E Camino Boscaje Escondido sold for $315/sf. (both Listed by Long Realty)

So in addition to blowing the doors off existing $/sf sales, Roca Blanca, which  sold for $1,465,000, is now the 3rd highest sale in Cat 10 in the last year – and Camino Boscaje Escondido, sold for $1,750,000, is the highest $$ sale since Feb 08.

PS - the sellers of Roca Blanca, who I’d guess put at least $30K+ into it since they bought it (built-ins, landscaping, etc.), paid $1,693,000 for it in June 07 –@ $368/sf.  Not out of line, not at all, in Cat 10 in the good ole days. 

The sellers of Camino Boscaje Escondido had it custom built in 08 and listed in late 09 for $2,690,000.

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