TheTucsonFoothills

sales, where the rubber meets the road

Homes in the foothills are selling well this year, no doubt about it. But, the hoopla aside, we’re still neck and neck with last year.
From Jan 1 thru April 15th last year 237 homes sold for an avg/med of $464,469/$359,850
vs. 236 this year (amazing how close) for $473,295/$381,000.  

Here’s a look at where some of them have sold this year along with the average/median sold price + the number of homes currently for sale.

Shadow Hills – 4 sales - $403,875/$417,500 (4 for sale)

Cobo Catalina Hills – 1 sale - $580,000/$580,000 (3 for sale)

Pima Canyon - 10 sales - $1,266,429/$1,015,000 (7 for sale)

Cobblestone – 2 sales - $1,417,500/$1,417,500 (8 for sale)

Las Alturas – 3 sales - $437,333/$435,000 (3 for sale)

Sin Vacas – 2 sales - $615,250/$615,250 (9 for sale)

Catalina Foothills Estates(0–9) – 8 sales - $557,375/$518,750 (23 for sale)

Coronado Foothills Estates – 5 sales - $432,040/$389,000 (8 for sale)

La Paloma (not including the Estates) – 3 sales - $528,967/$560,000  (4 for sale)

La Paloma Estates – 1 sale - $672,000/$672,000 (2 for sale)

Hacienda del Sol Estates – 3 sales - $966,667/$1,050,000 (1 for sale)

Flecha Caida Ranch Estates(0 – 10) – 8 sales - $439,172/$429,000  (11 for sale)

Skyline Belair Estates – 9 sales - $400,111/$385,000 (9 for sale)

Skyline Country Club – 4 sales - $501,125/$522,750 (13 for sale)

Fairfield – 9 sales - $410,722/$420,000  (13 for sale)

Sabino Mountain – 7 sales - $596,643/$325,000  (6 for sale)

Ventana Canyon Golf Villas – 1 sale - $505,000/$505,000 (6 for sale)

Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates – 0 sales – (5 for sale)

Ventana Canyon Estates, Lake Est & Whaleback – 3 sales - $871,667/$870,000 (9 for sale)

That said, there was a nice jump in contracts from about the 2nd week in March and so far April contracts are up from there. And many of those contracts haven’t closed yet, but, when they do, I expect we’ll see the sales numbers jump as well. Prices, it’s probably too soon to say but it sure looks like they may be inching up. Or, at least, not inching down.

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the market’s improved but don’t kid yourself, it’s not 2006

At least for prices, it’s not.
  4550 N SCENIC MOUNTAIN Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $625,000 in 2006 and for $480,000 today.
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona 4783)

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a snapshot of our lopsided recovery

here’s a look at the number of single family homes sold that were  listed from $0 – $999,999 in the Tucson foothills during the period of January 1st to October 11th, for the years 2006 to 2012.

 

and for homes listed from $1,000,0000 and UP

So for 2012, sales of homes listed under a million $$$ are up 9% from 2006, and up a whopping 46% from  2009.

While sales of homes listed over a million $$$ are down 58% from 2006 and up a teensy 2.4% from 2009.

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for what it’s worth

For the last 5+ years I’ve participated in a monthly housing survey conducted by Credit Suisse that covers 47 markets across the country. In their own words here’s the methodology.

Survey Methodology
We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of
local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an
understanding of the existing home market as  crucial to homebuilders as it represents
over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the
new home market.
Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives,
inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In September, we received
responses from 900 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and
calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends,
levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend. 
_________________________________________________________________________

Over the last 5 years or more I’ve watched the results of the survey go from giddy and elated to cautious to worried and finally to downright grim. And then this year the feedback began to inch back up into positive territory. 

Here are the results from the September survey for Tucson.

Tucson, AZ
(1,438 single-family permits in 2011, 50th largest market in the country)
Traffic above expectations. Buyer traffic was above expectations in September, as our
traffic index came in at 61 (from 41 in August), above a neutral reading of 50 (readings
greater than 50 suggest traffic exceeded agents’ expectations). 44% of agents said traffic
was above expectations, 34% said it was in-line with expectations, and 22% said it was
below expectations.

Prices higher, incentives lower. Home prices increased in September, as our home
price index came in at 83 (from 67 in August), above a neutral reading of 50, suggesting
higher prices over the last  30 days (readings above 50 point to higher prices). 67% of
agents said prices were higher and 33% said they were unchanged. Meanwhile, incentives
were lower in September, as our incentive index came in at 61 (from 59 in August), above
a neutral reading of 50, with readings greater than 50 pointing to reduced incentives. 56%
of agents said incentives were unchanged, 33% said they were lower, and 11% said they
were higher.

Less time needed to sell a home in September. Our time to sell index came in at 89 in
September (from 77 in August), above a neutral reading of 50, pointing to a reduced time
to sell (readings above 50). 89% of agents said the time to sell a home decreased and
11% said the time to sell increased. We view the reduced time to sell as a positive
indicator for future pricing trends.

Comments from real estate agents:
■ “Low inventories have been creating urgency.”
■ “More and more buyers are afraid to get left out of a recovery in home prices.”

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home builders are at it once again

After years of losing their shirts on untold numbers of unsold spec homes – many most of which eventually did sell but at 30 – 40% discounts (and those were the lucky ones) or, worse yet, they ended up in mr. lenders hands – spec homes, incredibly enough, are now making a comeback.

I count 9 new specs priced from $799,930 to $1,895,000 that have been listed this year.

One just broke ground and was listed today for $1,200,000 ($290/sf) - 6537 N Calle de la LLuvia in Alta Vista. (listed by Long Realty).

And 2981 E Plaza Encantada was listed on June 1 at $1,300,000 ($286/sf) and went to contract the other day. (listed by Long Realty)

And 6540 N PLACITA DE TIA RO was listed in March at $1,249,000 ($309/sf), went to contract in April and closed for earlier this month for $1,225,000.

I hope they’re right this time.

9 new spec homes

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short sales and foreclosures are dwindling

At this time last year I reported on distress sales in the foothills and concluded that > Tucson Foothills home buyers favor short sales & foreclosures by a wide margin < 

I said;
Short sale and foreclosures (distress sales) continue to go to contract & sell at disproportionately higher rates than non-distress homes – relative to the number available for sale. You see, while distress sales represent just 12% of the homes listed for sale, they represent 47% of the homes in contract at the moment & 29% of the homes sold recently.<

As you look at the numbers below for this year you’ll see that while it’s still true that distress sales continue to go to contract and sell at disproportionately higher rates than non-distress sales, their percentage share of contracts and sales are down quite a bit from last year.

This year:
353 single family homes for sale in the foothills (last year 366)
10% are distress sales  (last year it was 12%)

106 homes in contract (last year – 79)
35% are distress sales (last year – 47%)

65 homes sold last 30 days (last year – 34)
18% are distress sales (last year - 29%)

and at a million $$ & up

72 homes for sale in the foothills (last year 68)
0% are distress sales (last year – also  0%)

6 homes in contract (last year – 8)
17% are distress sales (last year - 62%)

5 homes sold last 30 days (last year – 3)
0% are distress sales (last year – also 0%)

And, clearly, while distress sale numbers are down, the overall number of contracts and sales is up this year vs. last.

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the inventory is growing, slowly

Since early this year the inventory of single family homes in the Tucson Foothills has been shrinking, and for the last couple of months it’s been hovering in the low to mid 280’s. And then just recently it started growing and today it’s up to 304, and that’s a good thing. Because given the pace of sales, buyers in almost all price ranges would like to have more homes to choose from.

Here’s the breakdown of homes for sale by price range;

$0 to $599,999 - 167

$600,000 to $999,999 - 71

$1,000,000 to $1,499,999 - 34

$1,500,000 to $1,999,999 - 16

$2.0 big ones and UP – 16

Happy hunting

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big doins

and lots of them,

7557 N Secret Canyon Drive is back in play after a summer break.
Listed at $3,250,000 when it left the market in July it’s back today at $3,250,000 ($620/sf).
But that’s a long way from it’s debut price of $5,500,000 in October 2010, and there have been a couple of sales in the Canyons lately, though in the low $2 mil range.
7557 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s Int Realty 472203)

A new spec home in La Paloma - 6220 N Cadena De Montanas – on .46 acres, 4400 sf,
5 Bed/4.5 Bath, 1 story, listed as a contemporary. No pictures yet and no mention of a completion date. 6220 N Cadena De Montanas Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

4128 N Sunset Cliff Place on Sabino Mountain sold for $439,000 in 2010 and is in contract after just 1 day on the market listed at $440,000 . 4128 N Sunset Cliff Place Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona 4783) 

A new listing In Alta Vista - 6155 E Avenida De Chaparron is now available for $985,000 ($224/sf) after selling for $1,267,000 in 06. I’ll bet it won’t be hanging around very long.
6155 E Avenida De Chaparron Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

No surprises here but 6470 N Thimble Pass, a gorgeous home in Ventana that I’d mentioned HERE & HERE is in contract again, listed at $1,795,000 -  6470 N Thimble Pass Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

And 7502 N Whisper Canyon Place, the lowest priced home in Pima Canyon, listed in June for $745,000 and recently reduced to $725,000 is in contract. It last sold for $690,000 in 02.     7502 N Whisper Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And nearly 05 prices in Alta Vista - 6051 N Paseo Zaldivar, which sold for $1,266,000 in 05 sold again today for $1,180,000 ($235/sf). More than I guessed it would get, though my guess was back in March before things really took off.  6051 N Paseo Zaldivar Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

And last but by no means least, in Sin Vacas, 7373 N Camino Sin Vacas sold for $1,400,000 today, Yikes!, That’s way up there on the charts, one of the highest sales ever in Sin Vacas.
In 05, 06 and 07 there were 3 sales at $1,475,000 (yes all 3 at $1.475, on the nose) and 1 sale for $1.5 in 02. 7373 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Realty Executives Tucson Elite 498301)

So this is encouraging news, well at least it is if you’re a seller or a real estate agent. But even if you’re a buyer, these contracts and sales are another sign that the market is getting stronger, and that maybe now you can buy with some degree of confidence.

The End

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same time last year

Last September I did a piece titled > behind those pearly gates < that looked at what’s for sale, what has sold and for how much in some of our more popular gated communities. And I thought it’s worth having a look at those same communities this September and see how they’re holding up.

So let’s once again sneak behind those pearly gates and see what’s what.

Going east to west and starting with Ventana CC;

Ventana Country Club
24 for sale $449,000 to $5,200,000
10 sold (last 6 months) $331,500 to $1,500,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
24 @ $1,319,679/$944,500	10 @ $704,915/$425,000	14.4

7 of the 10 sales were at $710 or below, then 3 from $1.2 to $1.5. Yet of the 24 for sale, 18 start at $725 and go up to $5.2. It appears that the market in Ventana has taken a baby step backward from this time last year – the  gap between for sale &  sold prices has widened, fewer homes have sold and the MOI is higher.  

Sabino Mountain
7 for sale $289,800 to $899,900
6 sold $253,000 to $610,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
7 @ $560,371/$389,000	6 @ $383,150/$315,700	7

The good news is that none of the 6 sold were distress sales. (2 were last year) and none of those for sale are distress sales either and the moi is down. But the not so good news is that the highest sale was $610,000. And - why reinvent the wheel – as I said in last year’s post >
Once the darling of new gated communities in the foothills, (though I never quite understood all the hoopla) Sabino Mtn has lost some luster (haven’t they all though) While $1.2 and $1.3 sales were fairly common a few years ago, the highest sale in there in the last 2 years was (is)  one at $875,000 then $675,000 then … 

Skyline Country Club
5 for sale from $1,230,000 to $3,450,000
9 sold from $308,000 to $912,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
5@ $2,044,000/$1,295,000	9 @ $574,111/$500,000	3.3

Yes fantastic, have you heard, just 5 for sale and 9 sold = just 3.3 MOI. But YIKES! Everything for sale is well above a million while everything sold is well below.
This is a giant step backward from last year when the price of homes for sale and sold were on much more equal footing. > see it here.

La Paloma 
16 for sale for $238,900 to $1,399,000
wow! 28 sold from $220,000 to $1,065,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
16 @ $599,838/$508,750	28 @ $438,155/$405,000	3.4

The low to lowmid-end is selling like crazy in La P. Of the 28 sold, 27 sold from $220,000 to $629,000 – then a big jump to 1 lonely sale at $1,065,000. While the 16 for sale- 12 are priced from $238,900 to $629,000 then $729,000, $760,000, and 1 each at $1,299,000 and $1,399,000. Still, with the exception of a coupe of outliers, La P appears to be doing extremely well.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
5 for sale from $625,000 to $2,000,000
7 sold from $800,000 to $1,570,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
5 @  $1,243,000/$1,245,000	7 @$985,571/$842,000	4.3

After pulling out of a long dark slide last year, Cat 10 continues to do well - though with a price gap between those for sale and sold a bit wider than is ideal.  

Hacienda del Sol Estates
3 for sale from $905,850 to $1,795,000
5 sold from $590,000 to $1,310,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
3 @ $1,298,617/$1,195,000	5 @ $827,000/$735,000	3.6

Hacienda del Sol has  had a string of solid sales this spring and summer. And unlike during the bust years when HDS had quite a few distress sales, just one of those sold was a distress sale. But there is a newly minted foreclosure just listed, but hopefully it will be the last of them.

Canyons (The)
2 for sale – take your pick -  $3,950,000 or $7,900,000
2 sold – $2,050,000 & $2,150,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
2 @ $5,925,000/$5,925,000	2 @ $2,100,000/$2,100,000	6

Believe it or not this is huge improvement for the Canyons. Last year at this time there were 7 for sale and just 1 sold in the previous 6 months = 42 moi. But the inventory has been whittled down as much by sellers calling it quits as it has from sales. 3 houses listed at $2,795,000, $3,200,000 & $3,250,000 left the market unsold. And in addition to the 2 sales noted above there was $1,400,00 sale last November, that had originally been priced at $3,250,000. However, the buyers of the 2 that went for $2,050,000 & $2,150,000 did very well. I think they’ll look back, if they haven’t already, and thank the day they made those deals.

Cobblestone
geez, 10 for sale from $749,000 to $12,950,000
1 sold at $1,004,965

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
10 @ $2,405,800/$1,322,500	1 @ 1,004,965	60

Since last year, when there were 4 for sale and none sold, things have only gotten worse in Cobblestone. An try as I might it’s tough to put a positive spin on this one. 

Sin Vacas
1 for sale – $645,000
8 sold from $487,500 to $925,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
1 @ $645,000	8 @ $674,688/$678,500	0.75

Talk about a sellers market. And this is not new for Sin Vacas, last year I said - hip-hip Sin Vacas, the poster child for a vibrant real estate market. Plus, there’s a house in escrow in Sin Vacas listed at $1,590,000 that’s going to close escrow any day now. And I’m guessing it’ll go somewhere upwards of $1.4.

Pima Canyon 
9 for sale from $699,900 to $4,199,000
11 sold from $840,000 to $2,050,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
9 @ $1,525,322/$1,295,000	11 @ $1,201,818/$1,075,000	4.9

Big doins in PC. Last year there were 17 for sale and 7 sold with moi at 14.5. And with 8 sales from $1,001,000 to $2,050,000, PC is once again way at the head of the class for high-priced home sales in the foothills.

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that was even faster

Listed just 7 days ago for $1,695,000, 7899 N Ancient Indian Drive in Pima Canyon is in contract - it seems like just yesterday that I mentioned it when it  was listed > wheelin and dealin in Pima Canyon <

And the reference to ‘even faster’ is to a piece I wrote last week about a quick contract on a $1,795,000 contemporary in Ventana  > that was fast <

7899 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

7 days, I’m not making this stuff up,

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Hurry!

37 homes have gone to contract since August 1st with an average cumulative days on the market (CDOM) of 87 days

During the same 20 days in the white hot market of 2006  44 homes went to contract with an average CDOM of 117

2007 – bingo! 37 also went to contract. But it took them 145 days.

2008 – forgetaboutit, 34 to contract @ 198 CDOM

2009 – 46 @ 192 CDOM

2010 – 31 @ 145 CDOM

2011 – just 23 to contract between 8/1 & 8/20 and it took them 129 days to get there.

You’ve probably seen listings with that annoying sales pitch, ‘hurry! this one won’t last’ -  
yeah sure, meanwhile it’s been sitting on the market for 6 months.
But now it may actually be true. Desirable and reasonably priced houses, and there are more of them everyday, are going to contract in record time. Of the 37 to contract so far this month 15 had a signed deal in less than 30 days – and 10 in less than 15 days. And this is August, the droopiest month of the year.

At the other end of the spectrum homes that have been sitting on the market for eons – like 2 & 3 years - are now also going to contract & selling. And – the nerve of them -  they’re driving the average CDOM UP. Once they get cleared out the days on market will drop even further.

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that was fast

Just 22 days on the market and listed at $1,795,000 ($351/sf), 6470 N Thimble Pass is in contract today. But this is a gorgeous house so I’m not surprised.

I’d mentioned it here > looking for a contemporary in Ventana < when it was listed.

And given the quick contract we have to assume that the contract price is fairly close to the asking price. But we’ll see.

6470 N Thimble Pass, Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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boo hoo, 3657 E Canyon Wind Place sold today

Many of these $2mil+ houses have been sitting on the market for years now and looked as if they’d never sell, and then POOF they’re gone. This year anyway, this is 4th one to go in the last few months.

Canyon Wind ended up selling for $2,150,000 ($345/sf) cash, from a $2,495,000 list price that was reduced from it’s original $3,800,000. That’s the highest $$ sale in the Canyons since July 2008 and also by far the highest $/sf sale since then. In the last 3 years sales in the Canyons have fallen into the $252 to $283/sf range (from the mid $400’s to the $500’s in the old days) And somehow Canyon Wind was able to break thru. Well it’s a better house than the others, I think. But still.

I mentioned Canyon Wind just last week when it went to contract > a big contract in the Canyons today < and when it was first listed in September 09 > a new listing, but definitely not the new math <

Earlier this year I had a buyer who was very interested in this house and though she planned to pay cash she wanted to have an appraisal done. So she had her bank arrange it and the appraisal, which I thought was very well done and spot-on accurate, came in at $2,000,000. 
But that was 6 months ago before homes priced at $2million+ started selling.

3657 E Canyon Wind Place, Tucson AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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it’s good to keep an eye on what’s happening around you

That said, here are some highlights of residential sales (including single family, townhouse, condo, mobile homes, etc) for the entire Tucson Metro, for July.

And as you’ll see it appears that sales and prices in Tucson are on the mend.
And unlike the data I publish for the foothills, I did not break a sweat pulling this together,
I merely lifted it straight from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service monthly report. 

- The Median Sales Price held steady at $140,000 for the third month in a row now, and has increased 12% from July 2011.

- Total Sales Volume decreased by 6.72% from June, but is up 6.32% from last year at this time.

- Average Sales Price increased 4.11% from $174,793 in June to $181,978 in July.

- Average List Price increased 4.14% over June and 3.71% over July 2011

- Total Under Contract decreased by 2.66% since June but has increased 29.17% since last July

- Total Unit Sales decreased by 10.40% from June and increased 1.16% from July 2011

- New Listings saw an increase of 3.97% over June and 45.14% over July 2011

- Average Days on Market decreased again slightly to 67

- Active Listings increased from 3,474 in June to 3,477 in July. Last July Active Listings were 5,412

- Percentage of Cash Transactions in July were 33.33%

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he who hesitates

4950 N Calle Bendita, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed 4 days ago at $400,000 and is in contract today (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

And quicker yet, 5201 N Via Condesa, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed today at $459,000 and it’s in contract (listed by Long Realty)

gone in a flash

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another notch in the belt for Cat 10

3851 E PLACITA DEL CAMPEON was listed in January at $1,095,000 - and held there – and sold today for $1,045,000 ($222/sf).

This is the 8th sale in six months and the 9th for the year in Cat 10, which, like Pima Canyon, has made a strong comeback from the dark days of the RE bust.
With 5 for sale and 8 sold, Cat 10 is at a 3.75 month supply.

In Feb 2010 in >  strike 2 for Cat 10 < I noted there were 4 sales in the last six months and 18 homes remaining for sale – about a  27 month supply. And to make matters worse, the price of homes selling back then  vs. the price of those for sale was miles apart.

3851 E PLACITA DEL CAMPEON Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

And Zillow’s call on Campeon was $923,248

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in Pima Canyon

7654 N Canyon Spirit Way, an attractive minimalist contemporary, is in contract today listed at $1,350,000 ($264/sf). That’s down from the $1,600,000 it started at last October.

Pima Canyon, which was burdened during the RE bust with many more unsold spec homes and foreclosures than other luxe communities, has made an incredibly impressive comeback from those dark days. 

In February 2009 in > what’s happening in Pima Canyon < I said; “ Well, between the homes that have been on the market and the new listings in the last couple of weeks, there are now 26 homes for sale in Pima Canyon, 11 of which are spec homes. And in the what's happening department, the answer is, not much. There have been just 2 sales in Pima Canyon in the last 6 months - and nothing under contract at the moment.”

And today, in the ‘my how things change’ department, there are 8 homes for sale, 2 under contract and 11 sold in the last six months, which works out to a meager 4.3 month supply.

7654 N Canyon Spirit Way , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

psst - we’re on a run. This is the 4th million $$+ contract in 3 days.

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April home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Sales and sale prices held up nicely in April - 73 single family homes sold at an average/median of $473,568/$389,000.

Unit sales in April were on a par with March, when 76 sold, and ahead, and often well ahead, 
of every other month going back to January 2011.

 

And while the average sale price is up a tad from last month, it’s down from most prior months and down from where it was last year at this time. But median prices shot up and are higher this month than every month going back to last July – because pricey homes are selling again. 

And it’s not hard to see that IF sales continue to be strong that prices will increase.

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it seems like everything’s selling

In Cat 10 5260 N Camino Sumo sold for $1,035,000 ($219/sf) from a $1,195,000 list price.
So while they took a little haircut from the list price, that was the original list when it first hit the market in November. It went to contract in early March, so 4 months from list to contract but it took longer than usual to close. And long closings are nerve wracking. The longer the time the more that can go wrong and derail the deal. (listed by Long Realty)

And tucked away in a very peaceful area near Sabino Canyon 6218 N Sabino Shadow Lane – listed at $1.295 -  sold for $1,200,000 ($257/sf) after starting out in December 2010 at $1,495,000. (listed by Long Realty)

295 E Rudasill Tucson, AZ 85704, first listed in Jan 2011 for $795,000 and recently reduced to $699,000 went for $699,000 ($132/sf) and not a short sale or foreclosure. But rather a 2009 built 5290 sf house on 1.28 acres. YIKES!! (listed by Keller Williams)

5221 N Rock Canyon Road Tucson, AZ 85750 started at an even million $$$ last May and finished today at $780,000 from an $899,000 list. (listed by Long Realty)

6682 N LOS LEONES , Tucson, AZ 85718 in Skyline CC did well. It was listed in February  at $489,000 went to contract a month later and closed a month after that, that’s today, at $470,000. Nice work if you can get it. (also listed by Long Realty)

6800 N Chaparral Avenue Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed last September for $549,00, had a couple of tiny price cuts, ending up at $514,000, and closed today for $477,000. Unfortunately, the sellers paid $782,500 for it in March 2006 – right about the time the market had its last burst before beginning its long, slow fall to earth. (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

SOLD Tuesday 5/1

We’re down to 311 single family homes for sale in the foothills, the lowest in my 10 years in the foothills

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Camino Antonio in contract

4905 N Camino Antonio  Tucson, AZ 85718, listed 74 days ago at $1,500,000 ($329/sf) is in contract today. An impressive contemporary, and one of very few in the foothills, it sold as a new home in July 08 for $1,350,000. (listed by Long Realty)  So what will it bring today.
Zillow says $1,236,900. And even though doing the math may suggest they’re on the right track, I’m betting that supply & demand exerted its influence and it settled closer to $1.4
than $1.2. We shall see.

 

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Montanas estates is sold out

2285 E Corte Del Sabio is the latest home to go to contract in Montanas Estates, a small community of mid-priced homes in the shadow of Sin Vacas and nearby Pima Canyon.
 2285 E Corte Del Sabio  Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Del Sabio was listed 28 days ago for $725,000, and quickly dropped to $699 and just as quickly went to contract. Also worth noting is that Del Sabio is the highest list price home to go to contract (by a hair) and also the highest $/sf – by quite a few hairs. I showed it to clients when it first came on, I think we were the first showing, and I mouthed that tired old Realtor slogan – this won’t last, it’s too nice a house.

In the last 6 months 4 homes have sold in Montanas from $400 to $650k. And with Sabio now in contract there’s nothing for sale.

btw - in the same 6 month period last year, nothing sold in Montanas.

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supply and demand is again flexing its muscles

From the depths of the housing crash, let’s say in the fall of 08, there’s been an ongoing tug a war, a stand-off really, over prices, between buyers and sellers. For years sellers held out for a market that was long gone and just refused to face reality. But buyers also held the line, they either got it at the price they wanted or they walked. And of course the inventory of homes for sale ballooned. In April 09 I wrote > from the front lines

And that pretty much endured until last spring when things started to loosen up.
Because after a few years of slow sales and falling prices, plus those nagging low-ball offers along with foreclosures and short sales constantly chip-chipping away at prices,
home sellers finally got the message. And little by little they fell in line and lowered their prices to somewhere in the range of 2003 – 2005 prices. And sales picked up. And as more of them joined the party the market improved and the inventory of homes for sale began to fall.
(and we’re seeing fewer new listings because many home owners are either unwilling or unable to sell at these reduced prices)

And then we had that giant pause for the Euro debt thing last August and the consequent fall of the stock market, blah blah… 

And then 2012, when things started off slow but sure picked up.  And before you knew it we went from slow sales and many homes for sale to fairly brisk sales and the lowest inventory in years.
- on April 29, 2009 there were 585 homes for sale – today there are 327 -
- and from Jan 1, 2009 to April 26, 2009 135 homes sold – while for the same period this year 224 homes sold. So inventory is down 44% and sales are up 65% – the two faces of supply and demand.

So I’m not surprised now when I see a new listing come on that’s priced higher (instead of lower) than what it sold for in 2005 – 2010, or even 2011. And while there’ve been just a few of them, it seems like there are a few more every day or two.  

But I’m betting that even with brisk sales and low inventory, that this real estate recovery, if it is a recovery and not a mirage, which is barely in its infancy and still very fragile, is much too fragile to handle rising prices. And I’m also pretty sure that buyers, who are still extremely price sensitive (as they should be), will once again reject higher prices.  

But still it doesn’t surprise me that they’re going for it.

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more quick contracts

6760 N Placita Acebo , Tucson, AZ 85750 in Alta Vista was listed 9 days ago for $650k and is in contract today. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

7557 N Camino Sin Vacas, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed 19 days ago for $749,900 and it’s in contract. (listed by Long Realty)  Oh, and it last sold in 2005 for $760,000. So, what, a token drop from 05 prices?

6520 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 listed 39 days ago for $425,000 is also in contract.
(listed by Long Realty) That’s 2 for Skyline in 2 days.

And yesterday I mentioned 6540 N Placita Tia Ro,Tucson, AZ 85750 – a new and newly listed spec home in Alta Vista – listed March 1 at $1,249,000 ($309/sf) and in contract yesterday.
This is probably the 4th new spec home this year to go to contract so quickly, and a reversal of the fate suffered by so many specs during the long, dark days of the bust. (listed by Long Realty)

And for equal time, one not-so-quick contract.

5132 N Fort Yuma Trail , Tucson, AZ 85750 in Sunrise Territory Village (Fairfield) was listed May 2010 at $699,000 and after a few price cuts and nearly two years, it too went to contract yesterday listed at $599,000. (listed by Long Realty)

And here’s one that’s neither quick nor slow, but right in between,

4820 N Via De La Granja, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Cat 10 was listed on Jan 12 at $895,000 and soon reduced to $845,000 but had to wait until Monday for a contract. Imagine. So about 4 months. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

See them here > more quick (and not so quick) contracts in the Tucson Foothills <

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it’s not the same old same old

I see it every day and I was reminded of it again this morning when I saw that 5238 E Mission Hill Drive was in contract. It’s been for sale for more than two years at pretty much the same price. It started at $795,000 for the first year and then for $749 since then. And then today, out of the blue, it goes to contract. And I wouldn’t be surprised if there were other buyers interested in it, but taking their time and figuring, hey, it’s been around for 2 years, what’s the rush.

We’re just now eking our way out of the worst real estate slump in decades, and during these last 4 or 5 years we’ve grown accustomed to having all the time in the world to shop for and make offers on the many homes that had been languishing on the market. 

But the market’s changing and many of the homes that have been sitting there for extended periods are now going to contract and selling. And a lot of it is due to sharply reduced prices. Prices that have gotten buyers off the sidelines and into the marketplace. But I’m also seeing homes that have been on the market for a year or more - without much of a price cut-  also going to contract – like Mission Hill up above. And every day new listings come on at prices that are attracting buyers a lot sooner than we’ve been accustomed to.

Here’s just a few examples.

6540 N PLACITA DE TIA RO, a new spec home was listed on March 1st for $1,249,000 ($309/sf) and today it’s in contract.

4625 N Placita Roca Blanca came on on March 6 for $1,595,000 and by March 8 it was in contract. And it closed on March 26  for $1,575,000.

2321 E Calle Lustre, listed since Jan 2011 was at $987,000 and then $949 and after more than a year it went to contract this March.

Similar story for 4803 E Placita Provida. Listed Jan 2011 for $1,095,000 and on the market ever since, it went to contract  and sold last month for $1,010,000.

But mostly it's big price cuts that are spurring sales. Like 7707 N Ancient Indian Drive which dropped from $2.250 to $1.495 in the past two years and still it didn’t move. Then two weeks ago it did.

And 1308 E DESERT GARDEN Drive which started at $1.280 two years ago and ended up at $840k last week.

There’s pent up demand from buyers who’ve been waiting for just the right deal to come along but are now finding that there’s very little to choose from. The market is changing.

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when it rains ….

And yet more upbeat real estate news, this time from today’s AZ Daily Star.

“Tucson is the best place in the country to buy a home right now, according to Realtor.com and Forbes magazine”

Realtor.com names city top market in nation, citing affordability, jobs

Tucson experiencing a boom in real estate investments

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another sale in La Paloma Estates

3413 E Via Palomita, listed 179 days ago for $1,295,000 sold today for $1,065,000 ($219/sf).

That’s the 2nd sale this year for over a mil in La P. While for all of 2011 there were also 2 sales over a mil. (Listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc. 542)

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my how things change

Get this, Forbes ranks Tucson one of the best cities to buy a home. And Tucson came in # 1. The Best Cities to Buy a Home Right Now

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it’s not just in the foothills,

Here are some sales statistics for March from the Tucson Association of Realtors.
Keep in mind, these numbers are for the entire Tucson metro area and include single family homes, condos, townhomes and manufactured homes. And I think that’s it.

- Total Sales Volume increased significantly in March by 39.13% over February, and is up  21.96% from March 2011.

- Average Sales Price is up 2.21% from February.

- Average List Price increased from $171,723 in February to $173,890 in March.

- Under Contract increased 6.07% over February and 29.04% over March 2011.

- Total Unit Sales rose 36.11% over February are up 18.65% over March 2011.

the market is turning all across the greater Tucson area.

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and then there were 2

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive, a spec, started out in Jan 2010 @ $2,250,000, was more recently listed at $1,495,000 ($268/sf), and is reported in contract today.

That leaves just two specs in PC, and wouldn’t you know it, they’re also the two priciest homes in there, at $2,795,000 ($449/sf) and $4,199,000 ($787/sf). They may be with us for just a bit longer. 3 years ago there were 11 specs and nothing was moving. And it looked like nothing ever would again.

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1st quarter home sales in the Tucson Foothills

The following sales data are for single family homes sold through the Tucson Association of Realtors from January 1 thru March 31 for this year and years past.
year  # sold @ average & median sold price

2012   171  @ $470,486 - $358,900

2011   151  @ $462,944 - $400,000

2010   143  @ $558,815 - $439,000

2009   109  @ $530,765 – $445,000

2008   124  @ $715,687 – $538,750

2007   140  @ $683,288 – $540,000

2006   202  @ $744,496 – $580,000

So, for the 1st quarter, sales are higher than in every year since 2006. yeah!
And prices are hovering, but we’ll have to wait another quarter to see where they’ve settled.
I think they have settled, but we’ll see.

And in the ‘listed at million$$ +’ category, last year 10 sold in the 1st quarter, and this year 15 sold. So that’s not too shabby either.

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a milestone for Pima Canyon

The collapse of the economy in September 08 dealt a deadly blow to luxury home sales in the Tucson Foothills and everywhere else.  And none more so than Pima Canyon.
In Feb 09 there were 26 homes for sale, a measly 2 had sold in the previous 6 months, and there was not a single home in contract – leading to an extremely gloomy 78 month supply.

In June of 2010 there were 20 homes for sale and 6 sold in the previous 6 months, which worked out to a much better, but still bloated, 18 month supply of homes.

Last year at about this time there was a 1 year supply of homes in PC.

And though it seems incredible, today it’s down to a 6 month supply.
There are 10 homes for sale, 4 in contract and 11 sold in the past 6 months.

Place your bets.

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a watershed moment, maybe

After 3 + years 7417 N Secret Canyon Drive, a spec home in the Canyons currently listed at $2,995,000 ($414/sf), has gone to contract. It started out at $4.5 in late 08.

The Canyons, one the priciest patches of dirt in the foothills, has fared worse than others during these last few years.  After millions in price cuts homes in the Canyons are now listed from $2.495 to $7.9 – yet the last sale up there above $2.0 was back in July 2008.

And since then there’ve been just 2 sales in the Canyons, period. One that started at $3.250 and ended four years later at $1.4. And a spec-home turned foreclosure special that started at $5.0 and ended, thanks to mr lender, just two years later at $1.850.

But given that it’s gone to contract listed at $2.995 I’m going to assume that the deal for 7417 is for more than 2mil. But we’ll see. 

7417 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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it’s not just us

For the past two months I’ve talked about and offered some details on the improving real estate market here in the foothills – more homes going to contract more quickly, very low inventory, higher sales and even fewer distress sales. Apparently many cities and towns across the country are seeing similar improvements in their markets. The rising tide …

From WSJ.com

Housing Shows Signs of Life

By NEIL SHAH and NICK TIMIRAOS

Real-estate markets are showing signs of life as falling prices spur buyer demand, lifting home sales and new construction from the depressed levels of the past three years. The spring selling season, traditionally the busiest period of the year, appears to be off to its best start in five years. Sales of existing homes in January and February were at their highest level since 2007, according to data out Wednesday, though sales in February edged down by 0.9% from January on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline in real-estate prices has slowed its pace, making Americans less cautious about spending and potentially more disposed to buy a home. For the first time since 2005, investment in residential real-estate, including home building and renovation, has contributed to U.S. economic output for the past three quarters.

"Housing bottoming is going to surprise a lot of people," said Kenneth Rosen, a housing economist at the University of California, Berkeley. "Housing was pulling us down consistently, quarter after quarter, for years. That was really over in 2011."

Real-estate agents and home builders from Florida to the Midwest and California are reporting more activity as buyers take advantage of prices that are down by one-third from their peak as well as low interest rates that have made housing more affordable than at any time in the last decade.

Buyers such as Jessica Ontiveros are running into bidding wars on properties. In December, she was under contract to buy a one-bedroom condominium in Corona, Calif., for $83,000 with a 10% down payment. However, the property fell out of escrow after Ms. Ontiveros ran into trouble obtaining a mortgage. Last week, she made a $200,000 bid on a three-bedroom home, but the property already had two offers. "I heard buying a home was going to be easy, but anything I can afford, an investor will come in and pay cash for it," said Ms. Ontiveros, a 26-year-old high school Spanish teacher who is living at home. She's anxious because "prices seem to be going up. I check almost every single day."

Read all about it > Housing Shows Signs of Life

PS- if you’ve been waiting for the market to bounce off the bottom, I’d say the wait is over.

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supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

I’ve been going on lately about the tightening supply of homes for sale and thought it would be a good idea to provide some numbers to explain the chatter.

right now there’s a 5.5 month supply of single family homes in the foothills
342 for sale ÷ 62 *sold = 5.5 months, which is considered a balanced market, with happy buyers and sellers (* last 30 days) Yeah Sure.

But as usual it’s quite a different story when broken down by price range;

$0 – $599 is squeaky tight at 3.8 months supply (193 for sale/51 sold)
with buyers now doing battle over the choicest homes

$600 – $999 is bloated at 13 months (78 for sale/6 sold)

$1.0m – $1.499 is 9 months (27 for sale/3 sold)

$1.5m – $1.999 is 11.5 (23 for sale/2 sold)

$2.0m & UP is anyone’s guess (21 for sale/0 sold)

So while the entire foothills is at 5.5 months inventory, that is, as you can see, misleading and due largely to the $0 to $599 range doing as well as it is and pulling the numbers down.
But still, this is a huge improvement from where we’ve been. 

In March 2011 there was a 7.9 month supply (475 for sale/60 sold)
In March 2010 there was a 9.7 months supply (496 for sale/51 sold)
In March 2009 there was a 12.8 month supply (564 for sale/44 sold)
In March 2008 it was 12.2 months (546 for sale/42 sold)

And there have been a slew of homes in the $600k to $1.5m range that have gone to contract in the last few weeks. And when they close, those sales will put an even more cheerful spin on the supply & demand numbers.That is unless you’re a buyer who’s been waiting for more supply and less demand.

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well yes of course you can ask whatever you want

6201 N Whaleback Place did. It sold for $1,195,000 in 2002 and was listed for $1,850,000 in, get this, September 2008. (hello) And, lo and behold, three and half years later, it’s now gone to contract listed at $990,000.  
 
But the parallels with 4411 Camino Sumo, which I wrote about just below this  - it just won’t be the same – are uncanny.
Both started out in late 08 listed between $1,750,000 to $1,850,000, both failed to sell and have been on the market since 08 and both have come down to earth recently and within the last two weeks both cut their prices to the high $900’s, both turning into short sales, and both went to contract yesterday. After 3+ years.

Meanwhile, adding more fuel to the $875,000 to $1,200,000 price range, which is burning a hole in everyone’s pocket

6201 N Whaleback Place, Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

3 down 1 to go

In the last 2 months three homes have gone to contract on Quiet Canyon Drive, the last one went today -  2042 E Quiet Canyon Drive – after almost 2 years on the market. ( the little green one)
(Listed by Long Realty)

 

As you can see two of the three back up directly to old Ina Rd and the 3rd isn’t too far off. 
The star is the one home that remains for sale – and has been for just under one year now.
The issue here is old Ina Rd. And even though traffic on Old Ina is very light it’s still tougher to find a buyer for that locale.  Much tougher. Particularly in the kind of market we’ve had these last few years where buyers have been extremely choosy. So could this be another sign of an improving market, and a market with fewer homes to choose from in this price range. I think so.

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listed yesterday at $1,595,000 and today it’s in contract

That’s 4625 N Placita Roca Blanca in Cat 10. A fabulous Mediterranean, done to the 9’s, that sold for $2,595,000 in 07 and was listed yesterday for $1,595,000 ($314/sf). A great house at a very good price.

I saw it yesterday afternoon at 5, just an hour after it came on. And I immediately called an out of town client of mine, left them a message, and emailed the listing. I’m sure it would have been a perfect fit. But we didn’t connect until today, and even if they’d been able to just drop everything and jump on a plane, and really who can, it still would have been too late.
This evening I got a call from the listing agent that they had an accepted offer. After 24 hours.

Homes like this are very few and far between and there are plenty of buyers lined up and waiting to pounce.

4625 N Placita Roca Blanca Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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another one gone

On the market four months and listed at $1,195,000, and no price cuts, 5260 N Camino Sumo today joins the “under contract at $875 to $1.2 mil” sweet spot.

These are the homes that buyers in that range are buying > 14 under contract + 1 sold < meanwhile, the supply is dwindling 

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and then there were none

Yesterday I talked about Pinnacle Ridge and how its fortunes have changed from one year ago.
> then and now in Pinnacle Ridge, aka Paloma Canyon <

Sales are up and supply is down to just 1 home for sale,

No more, that home is now in contract as well and there’s nothing for sale,

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then and now in Pinnacle Ridge, aka Paloma Canyon

Last February there were;

6 for sale
3 sold   (last 6 months)
0 in contract

This February there are;

1 for sale
6 sold  (last 6)
2 in contract

So supply is way down and demand is way up. The market here in the Foothills is turning around right before our eyes.

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slim pickins in the Mountain Estates at Ventana

In the last 18 months the Mountain Estates pulled out of what was a severe nose dive in sales - nothing sold in there from June 08 until February 2010. Nothing.

But things have sure changed, since then, five homes have sold – from $1,350,000 to $2,200,000 – actually two sold at $2.2 and another at $2.1 – and at that they are also three of the four highest priced sales in the entire Foothills since January 2010.
What a comeback!

Then today, 7205 E Stone Canyon Drive, on the market almost one year and listed at $2,295,000 ($452/sf), was cancelled – leaving just 6620 N EAGLE RIDGE, listed at $6,200,000 ($957/sf) as the only option if you're dying to be in the Mountain Estates.

6620 N EAGLE RIDGE Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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million $$$ home sales

Here’s a look at sales so far this year, and during the same period last year, for homes listed at a million $$ & up.This is for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills.

2011	2010
33 sold	30 sold
6 sold @ $925 to $975K	3 sold @ $915 to $999
27 sold @ $1.020 to $2.2	27 sold @ $1.0 to $2.2
avg/med sold- $1,319,314/$1,175,000	avg/med sold-$1,343,767/$1,175,000
@ avg $257/sf	@ avg $265/sf
@ avg 89.6% of list price	@ average 88.4% of list price
@ 112 avg dom (days on market)	@ 176 avg dom

It’s pretty much neck n neck with last year, with the only real difference being dom – down 36%, it seems. But given how days on market (dom) is calculated by the mls, the figures are not reliable and present a much more positive view than is actually the case. But they are consistent, at least, and always present a more positive view.  

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close, but no cigar

On June 4th I submitted an offer for buyers I’m representing on a short sale that had just come on the market.

The house was listed for $750,00 – that’s after having been listed for $1,899,000 & $1,750,000, and failing to sell – and my buyers offered $750,000. But for insurance we also submitted an escalation clause along with the $750,000 offer. The escalation clause stated that if there was a higher offer, then my buyers offer would automatically be raised by $2,500 more than that higher offer, up to a maximum of $780,000. But even with that we ended up coming in 2nd, because the other offer was for cash. No mortgage. And today we finally got word that the other offer had not only been fully accepted by the lender but had also made it thru the inspection period. So that’s it, it’s all but a done deal.

And other than knowing it was a cash, I don’t know what the other offer was. But I suspect it was also $750,000. But because it was cash, and didn’t involve the contingencies and uncertainties and strung out time-line of getting a jumbo mortgage these days, it was more of a sure thing for the seller & lender.

My buyers weren’t happy about how it turned out, but they made the best offer they were willing to make at the time and they were good sports about it. And while they’re optimistic that other opportunities will come along, and I’m sure they will, it’s also true there are fewer of those opportunities today than in the past. And there are also more buyers lurking around who are ready and able to pounce on a good deal.

But that’s at about a million and under. At the upper-end, at a million eight or two million or more, I think we may have only just scratched the surface.

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in the heat of July

54 single family homes sold in July in the Tucson Foothills for an average/median of $538,197/$433,373.

And, oddly enough, while June saw the highest monthly sales this year, with 65 sold, July, with 54, was the 2nd lowest sales month this year.

Yet average sale prices were higher in July than any other month – see >  and the winner is June < for a recap of monthly sales & prices.

Also, for the period of Jan 1 – July 31, we’re at 393 sold for an average/median of $490,631/$413,500.

During the same period last year 361 homes sold for an average/median of
$516,502/$411,500.

And we’re now down to just 370 homes listed for sale in the foothills. The fewest, by quite a few, in memory.

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calling all affluent Brazilian buyers

MIAMI — South Florida is the default capital of the country. Here in Miami-Dade County, one out of five households with mortgages is in foreclosure. Nearby Broward and Palm Beach counties are not far behind. Nearly 200,000 South Florida families are stuck in the mire of default. 

And yet much of Miami is gripped by a housing mania as the oversupply of distressed homes dries up and foreigners and investors swoon. Only a few years after it seemed there were so many unwanted high-rise condominiums that the only solution was to tear some of them down, there are plans to build even more.

Home sales in the metropolitan area during the first half of the year rose 16 percent from 2010 for the best spring since 2007, according to the research firm DataQuick, far outpacing the negligible growth in the rest of the country. Two-thirds of the sales were all cash.

Prices, after a brutal drop, are firming up or even increasing. During the first six months of the year, there were 439 sales for at least $2 million, up 13 percent from last year.

“People thought it would take at least a decade to get back to this point,” said Peter Zalewski, founder of Condo Vultures, a real estate consultant.

“The Brazilians walk in, they don’t even negotiate,” said Mr. Dezer, who said he would announce two new projects by the end of the year. “It’s a no-brainer for them.”

Read all about it, From NYTimes.com

By DAVID STREITFELD
Published: July 26, 2011

Affluent Buyers Reviving Market for Miami Homes

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BIG $$$ vacation markets stabilizing

From WSJ.com

Vacation Homes: Why It May Be Time to Buy

I love this comment >  "People have frugality fatigue," says John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. in Irvine, Calif.

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HURRY! WHILE SUPPLIES LAST

the supply of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills is dwindling

July 17, 2011 – just 383 single family homes listed for sale, including 68 listed at $1,000,000 and up

July 2010 – 464 for sale/98 at $1,000,000 and up

July 2009 – 509 for sale/114 at $1,000,000 and up

July 2008 – 566 for sale/147 at $1,000,000 and up

UPDATE – I stopped at 08 but then someone asked about 2007, so I’ll add 07 and while I’m at it I’ll throw in 06. No charge. But I only have the number of overall homes for sale for those years, with no breakout of how many were at $1.0m & up.

July 2007 – 480

July 2006 – 377  (this is just after the market peaked in late May early June 06)
so stepping into the past we’re now at 2006 inventory levels and somewhere between 2003 to 2004 for prices. 

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just listed, just sold

First time on the market in Alta Vista, 6432 N Placita Del Zopilote is listed for $975,000 ($280/sf). Built in 2008, 3483 sf, single story, pool, with an 800 bottle wine cellar. 6432 N Placita Del Zopilote Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

And a new listing in Cat 10. And without even seeing it in person I’m going to bet it doesn’t last two weeks. 2004 built, slump block construction with a mortar wash, 3508 sf, on 1.86 acres, single story, 3 beds + den, 3 baths, 3 car, views. A Foothills classic.
4421 N Placita Camaleon Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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And 7203 N Cloud Canyon Place was relisted for the same $1,990,000 ($358/sf) its been since last June. At that price it has the distinction of being the lowest priced home for sale in the Canyons. And by quite a bit too. The next one up is $2,995,000 @ $475/sf, and up they go from there.  7203 N Cloud Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

In La Paloma Estates, 5691 N Calle De Lucimiento was listed 28 days ago but didn’t show up in the MLS until yesterday. And today it’s listed as under contract. So what gives. What gives is, it appears that this was an arranged marriage. And aren’t they lucky, selling without having  to go through the rigamarole of countless showings at all times of day with strangers traipsing through your house. Listed at $1,295,000, it sold for $1,135,000 ($256/sf). 5691 N Calle De Lucimiento Tucson, AZ 85718  (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

Over in Ventana 6450 N Desert Wind Circle sold for $812,500 ($215/sf). That’s the good news. The other news is the sellers paid $1,122,500 ($299/sf) for it in 2006.
But hey, that’s the market and if you want to sell you’ve got to bite the bullet.
 6450 N Desert Wind Circle , Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

And in this corner, 4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas finally sold for $700k off a much reduced $725 listing. That’s after starting out in 08 shooting for $1,150,000.
4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas Tucson, AZ 85718 (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

another big contract in the Mountain Estates at Ventana

on this hot day in July 6921 E Rock Ledge Place, in the Mountain Estates at Ventana Canyon, has gone to contract. First listed in April 08 for $4,500,000 it’s in contract today from its current $2,395,000 list price, $445/sf. Disappointing perhaps, but, in these times, still a very big sale.

6921 E Rock Ledge Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

In the last year or so the Mountain Estates managed to pull out of what was a long dry spell. There were two sales last year over $2mil, a 3rd at $1,700,000 and a short sale that went for $1,350,000. In that time, those were the only sales in the Foothills over $2mil.

There are now just two homes for sale up there, one at $2,295,000 and another at $6,200,000.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

for sale and sold by price range

If someone asks ‘how’s the RE market doing’, tell them it depends on what price range they’re talking about.

Up to $599k, it’s doing marvelously. More homes sold in the last 6 months than are currently for sale, leading to an increasingly lean supply.

At $2.0 & up, the picture couldn’t be more different. 2 of the 4 homes sold were foreclosures that went for cheap-cheap, as there continues to be very little demand at this price range. And the clock ticks louder every day, as most of these homes are well into a year, or two, or more, on the market.

(The For Sale column shows the # currently For Sale + the average list price
SOLD shows the # SOLD since 1/1/11 + the average sold price + months of inventory (moi))

Price	For Sale	SOLD
$0 – $599,999	243 at $395,870	257 at $343,557 (5.6 moi)
$600,000 – $999,999	76 at $799,866	65 at $705,275 (7)
$1.0 – $1.499	34 at $1,217,938	15 at $1,076,440 (13.6)
$1.5 – $1.999	17 at $1,781,176	7 at $1,611,821 (14.6)
$2.0 & UP	17 at $4,292,059	4 at $1,800,000 (25.5)

At $600k to $999 10 more homes sold this year than during the same period last year, though for about $20k less, on average + last year at this time there were 109 for sale vs 76 this year. So with just 7 months inventory this price range is now out of the woods and well on its way to being a normal, balanced market.

At $1.0 and up is where the trouble starts. $1.0 to $1.499 is off just a tad from last year – 17 sold same period last year/15 this year. But look at moi.

$1.5 to $1.999 is neck n’neck with last year – 8 sold last year/7 this  year, ditto moi.

(this data is for single family homes only - no condos, no townhomes – listed and sold by the Tucson Association of Realtors/MLS)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home