TheTucsonFoothills

it’s official, it’s safe to go back in

Economists have declared Housing recovery finally here

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's been a long time coming, but economists surveyed by CNNMoney believe the nation's housing market has finally turned the corner.

Of the 14 economists who answered questions about home prices in the survey, nine believe that prices have already turned higher or will make that turn later this year. Only three months ago, half of the economists surveyed by CNNMoney believed a turnaround in prices would not take place until 2013 or later.

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taking a little R&R

and clearing my head in beautiful northern Arizona. I’ll be back at the grindstone tomorrow,

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my, how quickly things change

Phoenix rises from the ashes

From WSJ.com
By NICK TIMIRAOS

Rise in Phoenix Housing Shows Path for Other Cities

PHOENIX—As home prices continue to drop in most cities, a nascent real-estate rebound here holds lessons for the rest of the country.

This sprawling desert metropolis was one of the hardest hit housing markets during the bust. Phoenix home prices declined 55% from 2006 through the end of 2011, and Arizona's foreclosure rate jumped to No. 3 in the nation in 2009. Hundreds of thousands of homeowners are underwater, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth.

Now real-estate economists across the country are studying an early but surprisingly broad Phoenix turnaround. The sharp drop in home prices has brought new buyers into the market. Unlike other markets where housing recoveries have been snuffed out by big overhangs of homes for sale and foreclosed properties, inventories are lean here.

"Phoenix has hit a bottom," says Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist who was one of the first to warn six years ago that prices in overbuilt metros were poised to fall.

The nation's hard-hit housing markets face a tough act: engineering a housing recovery without traditional trade-up buyers, many of whom are either unwilling or unable to sell because of huge price declines.

Phoenix has found a viable formula. Low prices are igniting demand from first-time buyers and investors who are converting the homes to rentals. The local economy is on the upswing with several big employers like Amazon.com Inc. and Intel Corp. hiring again, which is further increasing demand for housing. And the region is benefiting from a surge of buyers from Canada who are using their favorable exchange rate to scoop up bargains in the desert.

Local mom-and-pop investors are also playing key roles in soaking up supply. "I'm running my Realtor ragged looking at properties," said Robert Gerundo, who last month stood inside a two-bedroom condominium, scribbling his signature on an offer to buy the unit for $50,200, slightly above the listing price set by the bank, which recently foreclosed on the unit.

Mr. Gerundo has bought 13 properties in Phoenix in the past two years and rents them out for as little as $950 a month. The 49-year-old, who drives around in a Jaguar with a Rutgers sticker on it, says he is making so much money as a landlord that he quit his job last year in New Jersey as a banker.

Read all about it - Rise in Phoenix Housing Shows Path for Other Cities

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a very pleasant surprise

When I got home this afternoon I found a Fed Ex envelope from Chase Mortgage inviting me to re-finance my existing 6+% Chase mortgage to a 4.5% Chase mortgage – with no fees, no closing costs, none at all, not a red cent, and no appraisal, and no application other than a few questions over the phone. (this, of course, is something that I’ve been meaning to do but kept putting off because, like everyone else, who wants to go through the rigmarole of applying for a new mortgage) So talk about ‘too good to be true’.

But what the hell, I called anyway. And after about 2 minutes talking with Stu, the Chase guy, and confirming the terms and answering just a few questions, I was on my way to a new mortgage at about
1 3/4% less than my existing mortgage - with nothing more to do but sign on the dotted line in a few weeks.

And when it was all done and I thanked Stu, he said no, no, thank you for being a good customer of Chase, you earned it.
He said, this is one for the good guys – I swear that’s what he said - the people who pay their bills on time.

I’m stunned and very pleased.

thanks very much, but we have more than enough of our own

For some reason, a house located at 8229 N 54th Street Paradise Valley, AZ 85253 was listed today, for $2,700,000,  as being for sale in the Tucson Foothills. Even though it is located about 100 miles north of the Tucson Foothills in Paradise Valley, AZ.
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

in case you’re wondering

Now that I’m naming the names of the listing brokerage of homes I mention here, you’re probably beginning to notice that the majority of them are Long Realty listings. And in case you’re wondering why, here’s why.

At $800,000 and up, Long Realty’s share of the market is 67.1%. With the remaining 32.9% divided amongst all the other real estate brokerages in Tucson. (those figures are for 2009)

 

And since much of what I talk about is $800 and up, well, Long Realty is often involved.

And while we’re at it, I’m naming names because I’ve been asked to, in order to avoid violating one of those Realtor code of ethics things -

"Realtors shall not engage in any practice or take any action inconsistent with the exclusive representation or exclusive brokerage relationship agreements that other Realtors have with clients. 

and to properly identify the brokerage that has the listing and avoid leading people to believe that, let’s say, a Coldwell Banker listing is mine, when of course it’s not. None of them are. And not surprisingly, after some of the things I say here, who would have me.

deja vu

Real estate got just about everyone into trouble in Phoenix, and the thinking seems to be that real estate is going to get everyone out.

Once again, just about everybody seems to be buying as many houses as they can, positive it will make them rich — or at least allow them to recoup some of their losses.

One real estate agent was showing a foreclosed house to a prospective client when a passer-by saw the open door, came in and snapped up the property. Another agent says she was having the lock changed on a bank-owned home when a man happened by, found out from the locksmith that it was available, and immediately bought it. Bidding wars are routine.

Amid Housing Bust, Phoenix Begins a New Frenzy

From The New York Times

"Flat is good. Flat means we are bottoming out,"

that’s what Marshall Vest, the University of Arizona economist, had to say about Pima County home sales.

And then he said, "The increases (in sales) have primarily been in the metro Phoenix market. Home sales in Tucson really have not moved up strongly like what you have seen in Phoenix," University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest said. "The Tucson market did not get overheated. The prices did not get nearly as far out of line. We don't appear to have nearly the overhang of foreclosed houses here."

And Jay Butler, the real estate studies director at Arizona State University, said, Pima County "never really participated in the hyper-market. You were about ready to, but it ended, so you are lucky."

That all sounds pretty good- because I picked out all the good parts -  but read the whole article, and see if you’re not as confused as I am about what’s good and what’s not and why.

This is courtesy of an article in our very own AZ Daily Star,
 Some see signs of life in AZ home sales

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Arizona, a growing state

As we've all heard now for the umpteenth time, and here's umpteen + 1, Arizona is now the fastest growing state after edging out Nevada's long hold on that claim. Winning the title of fastest growing state is being ballyhooed by business people, politicians, the media and others as a very positive thing. And it may well be a positive thing for Arizona, we've got room for a few more, but only if that growth can be well managed. The following story from the Arizona Daily Star, State's growth is fueled by jobs, tourism, housing touches on the fact that there are at least two sides to growth, raises some of the issues and gives voice to a few contrary opinions.
Not too long ago California was the fastest growing state. Now people are leaving there in droves - and guess what, many of them are coming to Arizona - to get away from the overcrowding, constant gridlock, and ridiculously high cost of living.
From LeavingCal.com Why would anyone want to leave California?
Has the price of living in California got you down? Tired of working around the clock and not even being able to pay all the bills? Tired of spending hours on the freeway when you could be home spending quality time with your family? Knowing at the cost of homes in California you will never achieve the American Dream of Home Ownership. California was once the State Everybody wanted to live in.
For more than 5 years now LeavingCal.com has been documenting the problems of living in California and offering people a forum for their frustrations and an exchange of ideas on how to get out of California and find the best places to move to. I'm sure that LeavingCal has inspired many a Californian to pack up and head over to Arizona.
I lived in L.A. in the late 70's, and for an ex-New Yorker it was a pretty nice place back then. The traffic was OK, rents were reasonable and there was a real sense of freedom in being able zip from the beach to the valley to the mountains and then dinner in your car. For the next 20 years I lived in Chicago and traveled to California constantly, mostly to L.A. on business, 10  or more times a year. Little by little the gridlock took hold and tightened, and soon any discussion of the business that we were there to conduct took a back seat to a discussion of how to best get to where we needed to go and back again, and still maintain our sanity. Now when I visit friends in L.A. they don't even want to take outings - to dinner, shopping, whatever - if it involves driving more than just a few miles. It's just too frustrating and difficult.
Governor Napolitano says that she is aware of these issues, "The governor fully appreciates that growth has at least two sides to the issue," said Jeanine L'Ecuyer, Napolitano's spokeswoman. "We certainly understand that people want to come here and that we can't put up a fence and keep them out. We need to think through how to effectively manage that growth so that we have the infrastructure we need to support what we believe in — schools, effective transportation and good use of land and water."
It's sad to say but it's true, California, a very beautiful place, has been ruined by growth. Lets do everything we can to make sure that doesn't happen in Arizona.