TheTucsonFoothills

zestimates vs. real world prices

The other day I mentioned that I’d recently seen some improvement in the accuracy of Zillow’s zestimates for homes in the Tucson Foothills, I said -  they’ve made some real progress and sharpened their game a bit. The zestimates are still hit or miss, but more often it’s closer to a hit than to a miss.

OK, so let’s cut to the chase and look at the actual sale prices vs. zestimates and see how on or off target zestimates really are at predicting home values in the foothills.

The following are all the single family homes (28)  that sold in the foothills (through the Tucson MLS) from  Feb 1 to Feb 19.  
( I put a ** next to those I consider to be on target, i.e. within about 5 or 6% of actual sale price)

But you may see it differently and feel that I’m being too generous or too stingy with the **’s,
if so, please, we would love to hear about it. 

Address	SOLD $$	Zestimate $$
4521 N Rocky Creek Circle	$182,000	$189,100  **
6100 E River Road	$225,000	$234,800  **
560 E Agave Drive	$245,000	$272,700  **
5311 N Via Condesa	$248,000	$289,900
3331 N Riverbend Circle West	$295,000	$282,400  **
7572 E Placita De La Prosa	$255,000	$311,100
4819 N Via Sonrisa	$305,000	$296,400  **
6084 N Black Bear Loop	$310,000	$269,400
4491 E River Oak Trail	$325,000	$377,800
6615 N Donna Beatrix	$289,000	$363,900
5440 N Ventana Vista Road	$345,000	$341,800  **
5130 N Pelican River Way	$368,000	$365,300  **
5498 N Crescent Ridge Drive	$358,000	$337,300  **
7065 E Townsend Place	$350,000	$342,500  **
5885 E Calle Val	$365,000	$381,300  **
5847 N Golden Eagle Drive	$380,000	$423,900
5862 E Paseo Cimarron	$420,000	$406,900  **
5132 E Camino Alisa	$475,000	$538,100
6860 N Solaz Primero	$450,000	$489,500
7308 N Camino Sin Vacas	$525,000	$506,600  **
4430 N Hacienda Del Sol Road	$554,500	$215,200 (-**)
4264 N Placita De Sandra	$600,000	$543,300
5759 N Campbell	$575,000	$544,900  **
2680 E Calle Los Altos	$708,000	$677,100  **
6079 E Red Cardinal Place	$775,000	$667,800
4455 E Coronado Drive	$1,035,000	$1,015,100  **
6070 N Desert Sun Court	$1,075,000	$1,004,800  **
3208 E Via Palomita	$1,750,000	$1,649,300  **

There are 28 homes listed and I **’d 17 of them as being on target. And a few are practically bulls eyes. That’s an improvement from where they were in the past.

But also notice that, at up to about $500k, when they miss the target, they often miss it by overshooting the actual sale price – in effect saying  they “think” those houses are worth more.  While at above $500k they’ve lowballed the actual sale price every time.  ??

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taking a fresh look at Zillow’s zestimates

In the past I’ve taken issue with Zillow’s zestimates because I’ve often found them to be wildly inaccurate in zestimating single family home values here in the Tucson Foothills. 
They were either way high or low vs. a home’s actual (and eventual) selling price. 
And then with a straight face they’d cover their bet with a ridiculously broad ‘value range’, e.g., zestimate $740,000 (value range $610,000 to $890,000) Well gosh, give me a dart board and I’ll gladly take my chances. (and don’t miss the caveats, disclosures and ….)

And after deliberately ignoring zillow for some time now, I’ve started checking in with them again. And it looks to me as if they’ve made some real progress and sharpened their game a bit. The zestimates are still hit or miss, but more often it’s closer to a hit than to a miss.
I’ll list some examples in another post soon.

And why did I start checking in with Zillow again. Well at least partly because so-called professional appraisals have become such a total crapshoot – and are so often so far off the mark that they’ve become a real handicap to making a sale. And that’s not to say that we can use Zillow to rebut an appraisal, but just as another opinion – and from what I can see, a more useful opinion than in the past. I must admit.

And of course these wacky appraisals are thanks to the new and improved regulations that now govern who and how appraisers are assigned. Which may result in the appraisal and valuation of the home you’d like to buy being in the hands of an appraiser from Vail or Glendale or Apache Junction, or who knows where  – who has little or no experience in the foothills.
And boy if that’s the case hang on to your hats, because, even with local experience, it’s often tough to do a proper appraisal in the foothills. 

At least when Zillow offers a valuation you’re free to accept it or reject it with no further consequences. But a so-called professional appraisal will make or break your sale.

Here’s some further reading on the appraisal problem >
Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers

and my personal experience with a wacky appraisal,

the problem with appraisals

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in contract again in Pima Canyon

1495 E Canyon Spring Court, a short sale – is at it again. It went to contract last month
(I wrote about it here >  is $9 something the new million five )< then it fell out.

Why’d it fall out. It was listed at $939,000 and the offer, I heard, came in close to that. 
So everything should’ve fallen into place. But ignoring both the list price and the offer price, the lender countered the offer at $1,100,000. Yes, a million-one.

Where the (**^(&*%$#@ did that come from. So the buyers walked and it went back on the market, but still at $939,000 - and last I heard the listing agent was having a heart to heart with the lender. And that must’ve clicked, because now it’s in contract again.

1495 E Canyon Spring Court  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by MacMorran & Assoc. R.E. Svcs.)

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the lucky 13

Listed at $800k and up there are 13 lucky homes in contract. 13.
And with 119 for sale at $800k and up, you can see why I’d call them lucky.

Where are these 13 lucky homes located;

2 in Cat 10
1 in Cat 7
1 in Coronado Foothills Estates
1 in Foothills ll
3 in Pima Canyon
1 in Sabino Mountain
1 in Skyline Country Club
2 in Ventana Canyon Estates
1 in Ventana Reserve (which is not in Ventana CC)

So 11 of the 13 are in gated communities, 2 are not- Cat 7 and Ventana Reserve. 
Based on this admittedly skimpy evidence, you might conclude that higher-end buyers prefer their homes be in gated communities. And, skimpy evidence or not, you’d be absolutely correct. Many more high end buyers want to be in a gated community than not.
Plus, at that price, most of the choices are in gated communities - 119 for sale at $800k and up, 96 are in gated communities. 

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are these the deals you’ve been waiting for

2162 E Sentry Ridge Court, a 2009 built spec home in Pima Canyon which left the market last July at $1,755,000 is back on at $1,550,000 ($339/sf). But it started out in 2007- when it was still a hole in the ground -  looking for $2,800,000 ($612/sf),
2162 E Sentry Ridge Court, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And 4411 Camino Sumo in Cat 10 left the market in August at $1,295,000 and is back today at $1,195,000 ($263/sf). And it too has come a long way – first listed in December 08 for $1,650,000, then, after failing to sell, it was bumped up (not down) to $1,750,000, then to $1,699,000, etc., 4411 Camino Sumo, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

4907 N Camino Escuela was canceled the other day at $1,149,000 and promptly relisted at $1,149,000 ($252/sf) 4907 N Camino Escuela, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Likewise with 6144 E Finisterra Drive. Expired at $1,135,000 it was relisted at $1,135,000 ($223/sf). 6144 E Finisterra Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750 (Listed by Long Realty)

3540 E CALLE PUERTA DE ACERO, which, I mentioned the other day, was listed, and failed to sell in 08, for $2,695,000 is now back at $2,195,000 ($372/sf)
3540 E CALLE PUERTA DE ACERO, Tucson AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

4820 N Via De La Granja hit the market yesterday for the first time since 2000 – when it sold for $740,000 – now asking $895,000 ($201/sf), for a 1993 David Tyson design/build on a hilltop lot in Cat 10. 4820 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718 (Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

And in La Paloma, 6194 N Placita Pajaro, which sold in 05 for $735,000, showed up today at $725,000 ($199/sf). 6194 N Placita Pajaro Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Realty Executives)

Also in Cat 10, 4421 N Placita Camaleon. When it was listed last July 2011,
I said it would sell quick. Well, it didn’t, but then the Euro debt crisis hit right after it was listed and killed its chances along with everything else. It was $970,000 then, it’s $875,000 now, ($249/sf) Built like a fortress. 4421 N Placita Camaleon, Tucson AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And, finally, 1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, in Pima Cyn. It expired at midnight new years eve listed at $1,995,000 ($447/sf) and returned a week later at $1,995,000 ($447/sf).
Built in 2006, they got a head start and  listed it in 2005, first for $2,400,000, then for $2,800,000, then $2,690,000, etc. 1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Place , Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

And before you know it it’s 2012, and the market for high-end homes is still awfully tight and very unforgiving.  

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starting off 2012 with 2003 prices

6451 N Ventana Canyon Drive last sold in 2003 for $1,370,000 and was listed today for $1,395,000. That’s starting off on the right foot,

6451 N Ventana Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(Listed by Long Realty)

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what are the chances these days of beating the market

A house in Pinnacle Ridge (aka Paloma Canyon) sold in 2005 for $850,000 ($187/sf).

And then, throwing caution to the wind, it was listed this past March for $949,500 ($214 s/f),
yes the very same house, nice try, but of course it didn’t fly – and now it’s back again, for $877,000 ($197/sf).

Meanwhile, just two homes have sold in PR in the last six months – one for $700,000 ($157/sf), the other for $605,000 ($136/sf) – and during the boom both of them sold for way bigger $$$$ – for $1,135,000 & $1,100,000 respectively.

These days everyone has this information at their fingertips and buyers are not inclined to pay more than the comps suggest or as much or more than a house sold for during the boom  – and if for some reason they are, well, the banks are not handing out $$$ for homes that don’t comp.
We all know that.

And unlike much of the Tucson Foothills, Pinnacle Ridge is pretty easy to comp, because the homes are very similar. They’re all built by the same builder (AF Sterling) and all built within about 4 years of each other, all are on similarly sized lots on very similar (identical really) streets. Yes of course there are a few exceptions and differences here and there, but that’s what they are, exceptions.

Then again, if it’s your house you can ask whatever you want – bloggers, buyers, bankers and Realtors be damned.

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Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers

From The Washington Post
By Kenneth R. Harney, Published: November 18

How do you fight back when an appraiser — often from another city and working for a small fee on behalf of a big bank — wrecks your sale, purchase or refinancing with a low-ball valuation?

It’s a serious problem in markets across the country.
Disagreements over real estate values are nothing new, but agents, builders and sellers say current market conditions, plus recent changes in federal rules that effectively encourage banks to use in-house or affiliated appraisal management companies, are magnifying the problem.

Read all about it > Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers
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In the real estate world there are few events more difficult, frustrating and intensely emotional than a buyer not able to buy  a house and a seller not able to sell because of a screwball, faulty appraisal.

It happened to me for the first and only time this past summer and, I’m happy to say, I fought back and I won.     I wrote about it here > the problem with appraisals

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after a long hot summer

Three homes that were previously listed and expired in late spring/summer are back on the market today. And at prices that should, at least, make you glad you waited.

In Ventana Canyon Estates 6426 N Desert Wind Circle expired last May at $1,695,000 and is back today at $1,350,000 ($324/sf) - which is $1million 
less than where it started in January 08.
6426 N Desert Wind Circle , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

And up in Finisterra, 6851 N Vista Del Pueblo, which left the market asking $1,4995,000, is back today at $1,249,000 ($224/sf). Down from $1,795,000 in
Jan 2010. 6851 N Vista Del Pueblo Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

And over in Cobo Catalina Hills 820 E Magee Road left the market a few months ago at $1,895,000 and returned today at $1,795,000 ($314/sf). Not quite as impressive a price cut, but consider that Magee Rd started out three years ago at $3,495,000.
820 E Magee Road Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

Now that fall is here – this is fall, you can feel in the air can’t you – there’s no doubt we’ll be seeing plenty of new listings + returning listings, like the three above that took a break for summer. The only question is, and it’s a big one, will they be priced to sell. Because if they’re not, they won’t and we’ll again start stockpiling high-end listings, like wood for winter.

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how dumb is this

Have you run across this, 2 story houses that are listed and advertised as 1 story.
Yeah, really, like maybe you’ll walk in and not notice it’s a 2 story.
Or you’ll suddenly realize, come to think of it, I really do want a 2 story. Sure, it happens all the time. And talk about hedging, I saw a house advertised as a 1.5 story. And wouldn’t you know it, the staircase to the 2nd story, it is a 2 story, is the tallest and steepest staircase I’ve ever seen in Tucson. (2 story homes are much less popular here and much harder to sell than 1 story)

So when buyers who are only interested in a 1 story (and most are) walk into a 2 story, what do you think happens. Well, not only are they immediately unhappy and upset about being lied to and having wasted their time schlepping over to a 2 story, but they’re now asking themselves, since the seller and agent have seen fit to lie about the simplest of basic facts, what else they might be trying to hide. And that’s the end of that, all trust is gone, kaput, out the window.  Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Meanwhile they’ve completely ignored those buyers who are looking for a 2 story.

And none of this does much to boost the impression of Realtors® either. Aside from ones personal principles and ethics there are also MLS rules and Realtor® Association regulations that prohibit false advertising. And while the vast majority of Realtors® do care very much and are vigilant about doing the right thing, there are, apparently, a few that don’t.

the problem with appraisals

I recently represented the buyers in a deal where the appraisal for the house came in 30% less than the agreed-to purchase price.  30%, that’s not chickenfeed.

But after the initial shock, no one panicked. Because it was obvious that it was a seriously flawed appraisal (to put it very politely). The buyers knew it, I knew it and the listing agent and seller also knew it. The only one who didn’t know it was the lender. And if we were going to move forward with this deal, they needed to know it too. But they’re located somewhere in Ohio and, of course, didn’t know diddly about the Tucson Foothills and were therefore completely guided by the alleged sanctity and reliability of the appraisal. So it was obvious that somehow I had to get the appraisal revised or redone or re-somethinged. 

So, with the full support of my buyers, the first thing I did was call the appraisal company and get the manager on the phone. I thought maybe I’d be able to convince him to have a look at the appraisal himself and see if he agreed with me. But after stating my case and not hearing any probing questions or encouraging sounds from the other end of phone, I asked Mr Manager if he agreed with me that the foothills is more difficult to appraise than other areas of Tucson.  

And at least he was honest. He admitted right off the bat that he didn’t know a thing about the foothills. Had never set foot in the foothills and didn’t even know where they were. He’d recently blown into town from Phoenix to open the Tucson branch of some big appraisal conglomerate. But still, he didn’t want to listen to some
smart-ass, know it all Realtor telling him his business either. So he started in with the ‘oh you Realtors are all the same, whenever the appraisal doesn’t come in you blame the appraiser, blah blah blah’

And not wanting to listen to his whining, I pulled my ace in the hole.
I let him know that there were 3 offers on the house – from 3 different buyers, represented by 3 different Realtors - and all 3 were within $5k of each other and 30%  higher than his appraisal. And isn’t that what appraisals are supposed to measure – the market price for a house – the price that a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing to accept, in an arms length transaction. And we had 3 of them. That got his attention for a second but still didn’t make much of a dent - this guy was thick. And he just continued his defensive whining.

So I chucked that and moved to plan B. I wrote and emailed a 3 page letter to the lender pointing out in no uncertain terms why the appraisal was grossly off the mark and apparently done by someone who had no business doing appraisals in the foothills. And I also sent them the two other offers and invited them to call and speak with the other two agents to verify that they really did have ready, willing and able buyers for the house. And I also called the lender and pleaded with them and insisted that the buyers and sellers should not have to suffer - and not be able to buy and sell the house - because of the gross incompetence of some appraiser.

And somebody up there agreed with me, because the lender ordered a new appraisal (from a different appraiser) and it came in within a few points of the agreed-to purchase price, and we moved forward and closed escrow. And other than the thrill of having won it for my clients, and for everyone involved, it was also very gratifying to find a banker who cared enough to hear me out and to stick their neck out and see it through. All’s well that ends well.

That’s a true story.

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with all the homes for sale in the Foothills, there’s plenty to choose from

I posted this piece in March and again in August of 2009. At that time, there were 593 homes for sale in March and 491 in August.  And today, with inventory down to 411 homes for sale, and more buyers in the market - it’s more relevant now than ever. So with the figures updated to reflect current inventory, here it is again.  
__________________________________________________________

Yes, sure, of course there are plenty of homes to choose from, are you kidding. With 593 491 411 single family homes for sale in the Foothills, we can’t miss.

Let's look at a hypothetical/typical buyer looking for a home in the Foothills with a price range of $800,000 to $950,000.

-at $800,000 to $950,000 there are 45 39, no, in May 2011 there are just  26 homes for sale, but that’s still more than plenty, right
-yes of course, you want 4 bedrooms & 3 baths - 37 28, that’s 20 homes
-3000 to 4000 sq ft - no prob, 24 19, lucky 13 for sale
-oh, you'd like about an acre, let's say .80 or more - 16 14, 7  gorgeous homes
-and in District 16  - OK, 10 8, 6 homes to choose from, Perfect!
-and you'd like to be in 85718 zip - down to 6, no, in May 2011 we’re down to 4
-single story, yes of course- that's 4, 6, oops - still 4 really great homes to choose from
-and a pool, but of course - OK let's go, with 4 homes to choose from we should be able to wrap this up in no time.
_________________________________________________________________

The point is after putting in some very basic criteria there are 4 homes to choose from  **link will expire on 6/22/2011** And we didn't even get into the style or the age of the home, whether it was in a gated or non-gated area, city or mountain views, and other preferences.

It happens every time. Once you start breaking down all the homes for sale in the Foothills, which run the gamut from under $200k to over $6 mil, you end up with too few, not too many, to choose from. Especially now, with inventory d-o-w-n.

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bidding wars

These days they’re pretty rare, but I was involved in one this weekend while representing buyers in the purchase of a home in the old Foothills.

When we started out there were two of us making offers, which was bad enough. But then at the 11th hour along came a 3rd buyer to really complicate things. And as far as I know, and I’m fairly confident about this, we were all within a few bucks of each other on the purchase price. And the winner was chosen more on the terms of their offer and how straightforward and reasonable they were in presenting it, than on price.

And I’m pleased to say we won.  And that’s largely because my buyers not only offered a good price, but they let me write a squeaky clean no nonsense offer.
And they didn’t dilly-dally about it either, they just stepped up and did it.

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the most expensive house on the block

5920 N Via Serena sold today, that’s in Cimarron. And that’s the good news.
The other news is the sellers paid $1,300,000 for it in 2004 – to this day the highest sale ever in Cimarron. And then, despite all the evidence to the contrary, they listed it in June 2010 for $1,500,000. Jeez!

So, not unexpectedly, it didn’t sell for anywhere near that. It went for $950,000, which is now, small consolation, the new post-boom high for Cimarron.

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more to choose from or more competition

It depends on which side of the fence you’re on, but four optimistic home owners have listed their homes for sale in Pinnacle Ridge (aka Paloma Canyon) in just the last few weeks - bringing the total for sale in there to 6 – for an average/median of $775,783/$767,950

Yet just 3 have sold in the last six months – with the last sale on November 1st -
for an average/median of $666,667/$610,000. And there’s nothing in contract.
So who knows.

And if you’re not familiar with it, Pinnacle Ridge is a newer (built since 2000) gated community located west of swan off Skyline Drive. It is quite popular with families and others and was developed and built by AF Sterling.

6 for sale

3 sold

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what’s selling

There are 82 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills

With 82 in contract out of 484 for sale that’s 17% of the number of homes for sale are currently in contract.

here’s how it looks by price range;

at $0 to $599,000 there are 268 homes for sale and 59 - or 22% – in contract

at $600k to $999 there are 124 homes for sale and 15 – or 12% – in contract

at $1,000,000 & up there are 92 homes for sale and 8 – or 8.7% – in contract

at an average/median & avg $/sf of- $541,340/$444,500/$174/sf

I’ll use this as the starting benchmark for the year when looking at the homes in contract in the months ahead.

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it’s baffling, but the news on housing has suddenly turned very positive

said Mark Zandi, chief economist (and a long time housing bear, my observation, JS) at Moody's Analytics. "If you can get a loan, these are pretty good times to buy."

From WSJ.com, read all about it > Home Affordability Returns to Pre-Bubble Levels

This is true to one degree or another in the Tucson Foothills, depending on the price range you are looking in. But even if it is not happening here, if it is happening in many other markets across the USA - and I can’t and won’t vouch for that - then some of those people who are (finally) able to sell are going to end up here as buyers. And that means more demand and a stronger market and, eventually, maybe even less of a buyers market.

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Smart people are buying real estate

Well, if that’s true then …  
So says an article in WSJ.com & sister publication SmartMoney.com >
Real Estate: Finally a Good Investment?

Everyone hates homes.

Homes are probably the most hated asset class in the country. That's what happens when a bubble bursts. People avoid thinking about the value of their home. Sellers moan about no offers, buyers gripe about impossible lending requirements.

Hatred of an asset is often the precursor to contrarian interest, and being contrarian is at the heart of many investment strategies. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

Read all about it > Real Estate: Finally a Good Investment?

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Beware buying a home from a divorcing couple

From CNNMoney.com

Marriage break-ups can be tense. And when divorcing couples sell their homes, it's buyer, agent and everyone else beware.

There are about one million divorces a year in the United States and in most cases, there's a home that needs to be sold. That can mean great bargains, because couples divorcing -- like those in foreclosure -- are often among the most motivated of sellers, willing to accept offers below market value.

Still, house hunters may well pay the price in terms of aggravation and time when working with these sellers.

Buyers must wade through the venom generated by the divorce. Often, one spouse is anxious to sell while the other tries to sabotage the deal -- either out of spite or an unwillingness to end the marriage.

Read all about it > Beware buying a home from a divorcing couple

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I don’t recall ever representing buyers who were about to buy from a divorcing couple, but I have represented sellers who were about to enter into a contract to sell to a soon-to-be-divorced husband or wife who was in the midst of a divorce. In those cases I advised my seller clients to stipulate that additional earnest money be put in escrow after the inspection period, and that it be non-refundable. Just in case things didn’t go as planned.

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today, 12/7/2010

Patience is a virtue - 4341 E Coronado Drive was listed in 07 for $985,000 and then  for $895,000 in 08. But it didn’t sell. Cutting to the chase it was listed today for $625,000. So two years and about $300 thou less, aren’t you glad you waited. (listed by Long Realty)

Along the same vein 2304 E Sentry Ridge Court in PC took a big cut today – going  from $4,950,000, where it’s been since it was listed in January, to $4,250,000. (listed by Long Realty)

There were a bunch of other teeny price cuts, not worth mentioning.

In Alta Vista 6700 N Avenida De Las Palazas found a buyer. It was listed in February for $1,195,000 and pretty much held the line, only dropping to $1,099,000 ($296/sf). (listed by Long Realty)

And 5151 E Mission Hill Drive in Skyline CC didn’t last too long. Listed in September for $775 it went to contract today listed at $700k. (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential)

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you’ve got to wonder

In 2005, 5231 N Foothills Drive was listed for $450,000 as a fixer-upper -
Cat #7 fixer upper sold as-is'' - and it went to contract in 5 days and sold for list price.

And six months later, in 2006, it was again listed for sale, this time for $750,000 – HOLY COW $750,000. And this time it was described as - Beautiful foothills home on foothills drive! Remodeled with care. New kitchen, baths, doors, plumbing, electrical, etc.  But oddly enough, there was not a single picture in the listing of the carefully remodeled kitchen, baths or doors. hmmm, I wonder why.

In any case it didn’t sell. And it was off the market for 3 years until it was
re-re-listed in late 2009, this time for $350,000 as a short sale. Yes, 3-5-0, down from 7-5-0. Go figure. And yet again it was described as - Nice remodeled house on large lot with panoramic views of Tucson's west side and the Tucson Mtns. This home has been remodeled tastefully. But still there were no pictures of all the tastefully remodeled stuff. Not a one. And here’s where I really get confused. In the agent remarks it said – ‘this home needs a CASH buyer as it is unfinished and unfinancable’. aha, but wait a minute, I thought it was tastefully remodeled, blah blah blah. And again it didn’t sell.

5321 N Foothills Drive was re-re-re-listed again this past July, this time for $334,650 as a foreclosure, and it sold today for $331,000 - Sold ‘AS-IS’, NO WARRANTIES, NO CLUE, NO SPDS.

The End.

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one more reason why buyers ignore list prices

4023 N Ocotillo Canyon was a range-priced listing - Seller will accept or counter offers between 590K-630K …

yet it sold today for $570,000

For more on the reality of range pricing, see> does range pricing work <

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high hopes

4420 N Alvernon Way was listed on September 14th 2008 - imagine, listing on 9/14/08 - for $725,000 and sold today for $299,000. (listed by Long Realty)

Their poor timing aside, being that off target, is it any wonder that buyers make
those much maligned low ball offers

4420 N Alvernon Way , Tucson, AZ 85718

And not quite in the same league, but not inspiring much confidence either,
3436 E Placita De La Jolla Del Sol – listed this past April at $800,000,  sold today for $610,000. (listed by Long Realty)

**both of them were reduced, and reduced again,  prior to going to contract and selling**

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strange visitors from another planet

Here we are still in October and already the talk has turned to the growing number of cars on our streets with out-of-state plates. And how restaurants and shops are getting busier by the day. A sure sign of snow birds coming to roost for the winter season.

And, of course, in the hallowed halls of real estate everyone is revving up for the arrival of our winter visitors. The hope, or expectation, is that their arrival will bring a surge of home buying here in the foothills that will pull us out of our doldrums.

So you’ll see more advertising for homes and more open houses and, for sure, there will be a slew of new listings coming to market to meet the hoped-for demand. 

Just the other day I had a conversation with some clients about how the attitude of sellers and their listing agents will change once January rolls around. January is opening day for the winter season and, with its arrival, sellers and their agents get all puffed-up and confident. They become more confident of getting a good offer and, in turn, become less flexible about what they’re willing to accept. And because there are more buyers on the streets, it stands to reason that they would. Because for many years that’s how it worked.

Come January, snow birds would arrive and home sales in the foothills would take off like a shot. And that seasonal rhythm has become ingrained and second nature.

But our winter visitors, whether they’re from Chicago, Des Moines or Kansas City, are not from another planet. And they are not going to arrive with pockets full of cash and a care-free, free spending attitude. They are not.

They are going to be as careful and concerned and tight fisted, 
and as much on the lookout for a bargain, as everyone else has been. So rather than getting all puffed up and confident, the best thing sellers and their agents could do, that is if they wish to take advantage of this fleeting opportunity, is to get their prices down to where buyers see their homes as an opportunity that is just too good to pass up. One that may not come their way again. 

Otherwise, those winter visitors are going to go home to Des Moines with nothing more than some cactus jelly and frozen tamales and maybe think about having another look at the foothills in 2012.

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you may regard the tax assessor as the most trusted source, but they’re not infallible

Recently, just after getting a signed contract on million $$+ foothills home, I was on the Pima County tax assessors site verifying some basic information about the house.

Going down the list I first saw that the square footage quoted by the assessor was less than that shown on the listing – which listed the floor plan company as the source of the square footage. That’s quite common and I’d already discussed it with the buyers and they weren’t too concerned. So no big worries there. But the next item was of serious concern.

The assessor listed the house, which was just two years old, as being WOOD FRAME construction. While the listing showed it as MASONRY construction. And our understanding, of course, was that it was MASONRY. Because, aside from the listing, the times we visited the house, I had pointedly asked the owner/agent what type of construction, and was told, pointedly, that it was MASONRY. And as we walked around the outside of the house I’d tapped and knocked here and there and it all felt and sounded like MASONRY. MASONRY feels and sounds solid, while wood frame feels and sounds hollow.

Nevertheless, I immediately emailed the tax assessor info to the agent/owner, with a copy to my buyers, and asked her to please explain - MASONRY or WOOD FRAME. She insisted that it was MASONRY construction. No question. I talked with my buyers and conveyed what I knew and what I was told and they were OK with it. And later our home inspector confirmed, without a doubt, that it was MASONRY construction and not WOOD FRAME.

The tax assessor had it wrong. And again, this was for a two year old house, not something that was built 30, 40 or more years ago when record keeping, and the maintenance of those records, may have been lax or lost.

There are a lot of ways that a deal can fall apart, and certainly I’m not infallible either, but mistaking wood frame for masonry construction is, hopefully, not one of them.

If you’ve run into your own discrepancies with the tax assessor, I’m sure we’d all like to hear about it and learn from it.

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to find your Foothills home

gone in a flash

Word is 3860 E SUMO NOVENO in Cat 10, listed last Thursday at $1,195,000 ($197/sf), had three offers and went to contract over the weekend for more than list price.

Sumo Noveno last sold in 2004 for $1,215,000. Some time after that it was extensively renovated – all new floors, kitchen, 5 new baths, new mechanicals & more. Plus all new landscaping – they ripped out the old and put in the new, by Plants of Distinction, the la-di-da-est of la-di-da landscapers in town. All to the tune of well over $1,200,000.

And that’s why, when it was listed for $1,195,000, it went in a flash.
And it’s not a short sale or a foreclosure. It’s a barely lived in, totally renovated, cat 10 house on a big, private city view lot.  
I previewed it a couple of weeks ago before it hit the market and showed it last Friday and was planning to show it again today but, darn, it’s gone.

That is one of the homes I was referring to in last weeks post,
sellers capitulate – when I said, ‘These homes will sell and they’ll sell a lot quicker and for a lot closer to list price than what we’ve been seeing for the last few years’

see it here> 3860 E SUMO NOVENO Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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in Skyline Country Club

5441 E Gleneagles Drive left the market in July at $1,495,000 and is back today at $1,297,000 ($232/sf).

The listing says; Outstanding remodeled Southwestern contemporary in prestigious, gated Skyline CC Est. All on one level w/no steps, main house w/appox 4700 sq ft & guest house, w/approx 800 sqft …

see it here > 5441 E Gleneagles Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

At the moment there are 12 homes for sale in Skyline, priced $399,900 to $3,450,000 – Average list $1,164,392/Median $839,950
vs 8 sold so far this year - $440,000 to $1,395,000.
Average sold  $885,000/Median $850,000.

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what’s new

5181 N CIRCULO SOBRIO is new on the market after a long time-out.

It sold in June 07 for $1,235,000 and was relisted in September 08 – yes September 08 - for $1,239,000. That, of course, did not fly and it left the market in Feb 09 with no sale.

The good news is that it’s back today with a new agent and a new price - $999,000 ($291/sf) in Cat 10. 


1985 built/burnt adobe construction/on 1.4 acres/3430 sf/4 Beds/
3 Baths/pool-spa/3 car/killer mountain views
(Listed by Long Realty)

Then there’s a new ‘possible’ short sale over at Ventana Reserve.
When it was brand new in August 07, 6033 N Indian Trail sold for $1,054,679 from the builder AF Sterling. Today it can be yours for $899,000 ($207/sf). Well, that is, if the lender agrees. (Listed by Long Realty)

And over in Sin Vacas 2390 E Calle Sin Controversia is a new listing at $699,000 ($194/sf). Sin Controversia last sold in Sept 2003 for $630,000. (Listed by Long Realty)

That’s about it for now. Quiet as can be in Tucson Foothills real estate. And though it may not be exactly what we need right now, I do know of some new listings that will be coming along soon and I’m sure there are plenty of others that I’m not privy to.  

And on that note, I notice that some, maybe even quite a few, of the new listings that are coming to market have bitten the bullet and are priced more appropriately, right from the jump, for the market we’re in now. And that’s a real ray of light.

See all three > 5181 N CIRCULO SOBRIO, 6033 N Indian Trail &
2390 E Calle Sin Controversia

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Buyers & Sellers, the great divide

Jack Donnelly put off selling his Capitol Hill rowhouse for three years until he thought he saw glimmers of life in the housing market this past spring. At $950,000, he said, the red brick Victorian is a "solid deal."

Jackie Wright sees it differently. The row house is one of many homes competing for her attention in uncertain economic times. She's been looking to buy a home in the District since April but is in no rush to commit, partly because she thinks mortgage interest rates - and prices - could sink even lower.

As with many prospective sellers, Donnelly's hopes for his rowhouse were forged in the past, before the housing bust, when homeowners assumed that real estate prices would inexorably rise. They expected to reap vast windfalls when their houses sold.

But Wright's eyes are turned to the future. She's anxious about whether the coming months will bring more gloomy economic news and reluctant to gamble on a major purchase, especially if a flagging market might actually mean better deals ahead.
___________________________________________________________

Read all about it; The Washington Post
A housing market out of sync

And this is exactly what is happening here in the Tucson Foothills. Sellers are looking backward and Buyers are looking forward. And the result is a huge reality gap. I touched on this in> going beyond ‘the comps’

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more on, does Range Pricing work

As far as I can tell, all the comments for the post ‘does Range Pricing work’ are from buyers. And all of them are negative, some extremely negative, toward range pricing. And 85% of the homes that do sell thru range pricing, sell for below the bottom of the range. And the 15% that don’t, are not from a lack of trying. That’s the reality.

Now here’s the theory, from Psychology Today mag;

Home Won't Sell? Try Two Prices Instead of One

It's not a great time to be selling a house — and to add insult to injury, behavioral economists put the "blame" on sellers. In many cities, it seems that no buyer wants to pay what any seller can bear to accept. This is said to be a classic case of loss aversion. Sellers remember what their house would have sold for, before the bubble burst. Compared to that would-have, should-have price, today's prices feel like losses. When confronted with a probable "loss," people are inclined to take chances, in order to avoid it. This is why racetrack bettors try to erase their losses with a long-shot bet. And it's why today's home sellers set prices too high for the market, in the faint hope that somehow, someday, a buyer will pay their unrealistic price. This leads to frustration on both sides — or make that, on all three sides. Agents are getting slammed, too, as sales slow to a trickle.
(OK so far, good solid stuff, but read on as the theory goes one way while reality goes another)

There may be a smart psychological tactic for anxious home sellers: List a house with two prices.

Another advantage of this trick is simple confusion. Just about everyone knows that a listing price of $X typically signals that the seller is willing to accept a good deal less than $X. In this market, few sane buyers are going to offer list price. Having two prices upsets this comfortable strategy. Do you offer the low price of the range? Less than the low price? Or do you make an offer somewhere in the range? Maybe you really, really want the house and want to make a preemptive offer. Do you offer the high price?

(first they assume that buyers are easily confused. And then they start out by referencing buyer behavior as “In this market…”, but then go on to make assumptions about buyer behavior that have nothing to do with “ this market” but rather, with some long gone market. Like buyers wondering, where in the range they should make their offer. That’s cute. No. They’re not wondering about that at all. If they are offering, 99 times out of 100 the only question is, how far below the bottom of the range they should offer, and they’re not one bit confused about it either)

and more psychobabble;
In the case of a house, buyers will figure that if they can get it near the low end of the listing range, it's a bargain. That extra nudge could be important in today's market.
(fairy tales can come true, they can …)

Read all about it> Home Won't Sell? Try Two Prices Instead of One

One point the article does make is that with a range price a home listed for $999,000 to $1,150,000, will show up in internet searches for homes listed at up to $1,000,000, whereas a house with a single price, even just $1 above $1,000,000, would not show up.
Natch.

And thank you to the reader who, while not endorsing it, sent in the link to the article.

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does Range Pricing work

In case you are not familiar with it, range pricing is when a house is offered for sale within a set price range, say, $240,000 to $275,000.
And a range priced listing is usually accompanied by language that explains the terms of the range; ‘SELLER WILL ACCEPT OR COUNTER OFFERS BETWEEN $240,000 AND $275,000’. So, in other words, making it clear that the seller WILL NOT accept or counter offers that are NOT within the range.

So the goal of range pricing is for the seller to control the price at which offers come in and, ultimately, the price at which the home sells for. And, as a secondary benefit, to avoid those pesky low-ball offers.

If that’s the case, then range pricing is failing miserably. I’ve looked at range pricing a few times in the last couple of years, and posted the results here, and each time range pricing did not live up to expectations. Not nearly. And this time is no different.

15 Range Priced homes, priced from $235,900 to $1,495,000, have sold since Jan 1. But just 4 of them sold within the price range, with 2 of them selling at the very bottom of the range. The remainder all sold below, and many well below, the bottom of the range. And these results are completely in line with those from previous years.

Nevertheless, range pricing continues to be in fashion. Currently there are 28 range priced homes for sale in the foothills, from $247,000 to $3,284,000.

For range pricing to have any chance of working in the current market, the bottom of the range needs to be at a price that buyers will literally jump at. But that’s not happening. Range priced homes are, just like non-range priced homes, overpriced. And guess what, range pricing is not some kind of silver bullet that’ll somehow overcome overpricing.

But I think range pricing can work to a sellers advantage in a HOT market. By openly setting a price range for bidding, in a HOT market, I can see how range pricing could easily encourage multiple offers. But in slow buyers market, with lots to choose from and most of it going nowhere fast, I don’t think so. I think, on the contrary, it discourages offers. Setting a range reinforces that not only is the home overpriced, but that the seller is even more unreasonable in that they’re trying to hold buyers to this ridiculous price range.

But buyers have learned to ignore the range and offer what they want. And sellers, smartly, are playing along. In other words, the market is working, if slowly.

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now priced in the high $600’s

These two that recently had price cuts caught my eye,

First up is the very charming Joesler near the top of Camino Real, at 5402 N Camino Real. It’s now $697,000 ($261/sf), down from $799 when first listed in March. Worth a look if you’re looking for a
2672 sf – 4 Bed – 3 Bath Joesler in that price range.

PS, it’s also the only Joesler for sale in that price range.

And in a very different package and locale is 5870 N Camino Del Conde. Listed in May for $775,000, it’s now $699,000 ($219/sf).
Built 1981/3189 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths. A very tidy, nicely updated house with a really pretty yard and covered patio.

I picked these two because I like them, and I’ve seen them and shown them recently. But my buyers, for one reason or another, have taken a pass on them. Nevertheless, I think they stand out from the high $6’s crowd. And also, when asked, I suggested to the listing agents that they’d do better with them priced under $700, and here they are. So let’s see if I’m right.

But it’s often hard to say in this market. This house, at 5080 N Calle Bujia finally sold the other day. It started in March 07 at $879, then dropped to $799, then $749, and nothing. And after being off the market for a year, it returned this March at $649, and sold for $625 the other day.

But when I showed it last year, it was also off the market but available for $749, I thought it was priced to go. And my buyers did too. But it didn’t.

(all Listed by Long Realty)

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going beyond ‘the comps’

For a long time Realtors® have used comps, lists of comparable home sales, to make their case for the price of a home. Whether it’s a listing agent trying to get a new listing, or a buyers agent looking to justify an offer price, they usually have a list of comparable sales to support their numbers.

And for listing agents, I suspect that that’s still the way it’s done.
Because most sellers just rely on the comps provided by listing agents to help them arrive at a list price for their home. Period.

But with buyers there’s a lot more active participation and therefore less reliance on these somewhat abstract comps. Abstract?
Well yes, because generally, sellers have seen very few, if any, of the homes on that comp list. So they’re just numbers on a page and therefore easily misconstrued.

Buyers, on the other hand, are out there pounding the pavement day after day, looking at homes and comparing one to another, keeping lists and checking them twice, as they keep an eye on what sells, what doesn’t and at what price.

And by the time they’re ready to make an offer, buyers usually have a nice, well-rounded market education – at least for the type of home and price range that interests them. And at that point they don’t need comps to tell them what a house is worth. They already know what it’s worth to them. And that’s all they really care about.

Because in this market and this economy, both of which are still zigging and zagging, educated buyers have less regard for what other buyers paid for their homes three, four and more months ago. And are much more interested in, and concerned about what that house may be worth two, three and four years in the future.

So while ‘the comps’ can still be a useful reference, to many buyers they are not the be-all and end-all they were in the past.

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of questionable provenance

5320 N Camino Real was reduced from $1,150,000 to $995,000.
(listed by J Bar M Realty) 
And that’s a nice tidy price cut. And now it’s just under a mil too.

But the price cut reminded of another issue looming over 5320.
That is, whether or not it is a Joesler. When it was listed 53 days ago I noted that the listing described the property as; Classic Tucson Home by Joesler (per owner)on hilltop lot with Mountain and city views…

And I expected that in short order the listing agent would clear up the mystery of whether or not 5320 is, or is not, a Joesler. But no, that still hasn’t happened.

If it were a Joesler it would be more special, more prized and more sought after. So why not confirm it and tout it.

On the other hand, if it weren’t, it would just be another old house.

Caveat emptor

why buyers wait

1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl, was $3,200,000, is now $2,100,000 by Long Realty

3174 E Via Palomita, was $1,850,000, is now $1,569,000 by Tierra Antigua Realty

6273 N Desert Moon Lp, was $1,795,000, is now $1,395,000 by RE/MAX All Executives

6174 E Avenida De Chaparron, was $1,595,000, is now $1,185,000 by RE/MAX All Executives

2611 E Calle Sin Desengano, was $1,150,000 is now $875,000 by Long Realty

6920 N Solaz Primero, was $1,175,000, is now $880,000 by Long Realty

3505 E Windy Point Dr, was $1,550,000, is now $945,000 by Long Realty

3731 E Sumo Septimo, was $1,500,000, is now $975,000 by Long Realty

6020 N Desert Moon Ct, was $1,425,000, is now $995,000 by Long Realty

3141 E Crest Shadows Dr, was $1,495,000, is now $999,000 by Long Realty

3900 N Camino Blanco N, was $3,400,000, is now 1,057,800 by Realty Executives

4912 N Avenida De Castilla, was $1,395,000, is now $1,058,000 by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

6321 N Via Acacia, was $1,549,000, is now $1,099,000 by Philip G Jameson

5910 N Mina vista, was $1,795,000, is now $1,160,000 by Long Realty

5366 E Gleneagles Dr, was $1,750,000 is now $1,195,000 by Realty Executives

6500 N Saint Andrews Dr, was $2,100,000 is now $1,300,000 by Long Realty

3451 E Calle Puerta De Acero, was $2,195,000 is now $1,375,000 by Diamond Foothills Properties

in contract today

4681 N Camino Sumo, listed 5 days ago for $995,000 ($217/sf) is in contract today. This was a no brainer and I’m just sorry I didn’t have anyone for it. (listed by, J Bar M Realty)

See> this is a no brainer
And as I said in that post, this is yet another wake-up call for other sellers in Cat 10.

And breaking the 13 day stalemate at over a million, 5109 N Camino Real, listed for $1,075,000 ($256/sf) went to contract today. That’s after a relatively brief 128 days. (listed by, Long Realty)

On Jan 19th I wrote - And then there’s 4744 E Mission Hill Dr, which sold for $824,000 after just 6 days in 2007, and (get this) was
re-listed 2 days later for $1,250,000 (I’m not kidding) and has been on the market ever since, is now down to $665,000.

Well it took a while to get there, but apparently $665,000($234/sf) was the magic number for this house because it too went to contract today. And according to the listing, not a short sale or REO. (Listed by, Long Realty)

So with Camino Pablo earlier today, that’s 3 solid hits and a save for the Foothills market. But keep in mind, all of them are at least in the realm of being reasonably priced for what they are. And who knows what they went for.

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buyers getting all A’s in the new math, but sellers still slow to learn

On the market since November 2008, 6580 N Regal Manor Dr is reported as under contract today. Why now?

While I can’t say for sure, if you put 2 & 2 together, it wouldn’t be too far fetched to figure that price had something to do with it.
It was originally listed at $1,495,000 ($271/sf) and, coincidentally, only last month dropped down to $998,000 ($181/sf) when it soon went to contract.

___________________________________________________

Similar story with 6302 N Ventana View Pl. It’s been on the market since April starting at $699,999, that’s despite having sold in 05 for $635,000, oh well, and went to contract today not too long after dropping down to $630,000 ($284/sf).

In La Paloma - Listed for $645,000 in 08, 6170 N Via Paloma Rosa sat around until two weeks ago when it finally got down to $460,000, yep 4-6-0 ($205/sf) and Bingo!, it went to contract.

And more on Paloma Rosa, same story and almost the same numbers. 6226 N Via Paloma Rosa was listed in December 08 for $649,000 and nothing happened until it dropped to $479,000 ($210/sf).
And now it’s history.

It also wouldn’t be too far fetched to assume that this pattern that’s developing may make it even more difficult for other sellers to sell at yesterday’s prices. And keep in mind, right now we’re looking at list prices, who knows what they went to contract for.

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playing the price game

$775,000 > $765,000 > $758,800 > $758,750 > $758,700 > $750,000 > $751,000 > $750,000 > $750,100 > $750,000 > $738,900 > $738,895 > $725,000

No kidding, those are the actual prices changes an agent made to their listing over 5 months. Of course the owner had to go along with it, but I’ve got a hunch that this ‘strategy’ was the brain-child of the agent. What mere mortal could pull this off with a straight face.

And let’s look at what they’ve accomplished; they’ve managed to waste 5 months on the market and squandered what could have been a reasonably impactful $50,000 price cut, had it been done, let’s say, in two $25,000 cuts.

And if I were a buyer I’d have to ask myself if I really want to get involved with people who are into playing such silly games.

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you never get a second chance to make a first impression

Nevertheless, hoping for a fresh start, of sorts, dozens of homes have been re-listed in the Tucson Foothills since the first of the year. But many of them, even most, were re-listed at the same old price they didn’t sell for in 2009.

So is it any wonder, if sellers are still not ready to face the music, that buyers still don’t have the slightest interest in what they’re trying to peddle. 

And thanks to my blogging buddy Christopher Fountain, at For What it’s Worth, for pointing out that we’re not alone in this predicament - The disconnect continues – and that many Greenwich, Ct home sellers continue to be in the same state of denial.  Misery does love company.

if you’re planning a home inspection

don’t plan it for January 16 – 20th. Because your favorite home inspector – if they’re an ASHI member – will be whooping it up in Vegas at the annual American Society of Home Inspectors convention.

about open houses

The other day an agent friend of mine was bemoaning the fact that as time goes on his open houses are drawing fewer and fewer lookers. And that the one’s who do show up are less interested in what he has to say and spend less time at the open house than in the past.

Well, obviously, there are fewer buyers out there now than there were a couple of years ago, I said. But also, the internet has disintermediated the open house process. It’s come between the open house agent - who traditionally supplied information about the house - and potential buyers.

Because of all the information that is available on the internet about every house for sale – photos, aerial maps, street view maps, tax records, floor plans, previous sales histories, comparable sales, etc, etc – buyers are able to easily investigate many of the details of any house before deciding whether or not it’s worth going to have a look.

And consequently many houses, that at first may have looked like a possibility, end up in the reject file after just a few minutes of online investigation. Buyers discover that; it’s too close to the road, or to a neighboring house, there are electric/phone wires strung across the backyard, the backyard’s too small, the house is all electric, no gas, the orientation is wrong – east/west rather than north/south, no view, don’t like the floor plan - not a split bedroom plan, the kitchen is too this or too that, the house next door is painted bright red, the house is overpriced. You name it.

Whatever it is, it’s a deal breaker for those buyers, and there’s No Need to go see it in person. So they visit fewer open houses.
And if it does make their keeper list, when the buyers do arrive at the open house, they often have as much or more information about it as does the agent holding it open.

And because they already know the score, these informed buyers are less likely to hang on the agent’s every word. Resulting in the open house agent feeling more like a doorman at a poorly attended premiere, than a sought after provider of information.

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… make him an offer he can’t refuse,

That's what the buyers of 6222 E Paseo Ventoso did. The house was vacant and listed for $599,900, but they got it for $465,000 ($131/sf). Why, because they made a clean cash offer with a quick close.

They made their deal on 12/3 and closed 8 days later on 12/11.
CASH, as is, no repairs. They stole it.

Because they wrote a squeaky clean offer - one not mucked up with a bunch of little contingencies. And the only thing the seller sees, because all there is to see, is a cash offer and a quick close. Who could resist.

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getting to the right price

In Cat 10, once upon a time 3771 E Sumo Octavo was listed for $2,195,000 and today, after a $100,000  $50,000 cut, it’s now available for $1,500,000 $1,550,000 ($238/sf) ($246/sf).
A day after I posted this, the price changed again, this time going up?  

And I can’t help wondering if the quick contract on 4790 N Via De La Granja, also in Cat 10 – listed for $995,000 ($168/sf), is causing sellers to re-think their asking prices. And if it isn’t, why isn’t it.
De La Granja was also listed up in the clouds, but within days of dropping to $995, it went to contract. And while having to drop to $995 may have been a disappointment to the owners/sellers, they can take some comfort in knowing that not only did they sell, but that theirs will be the highest priced sale in Cat 10 since February 2008. That’s a fact, almost 2 years.

And coincidentally, the house that sold in February 2008, 4331 N Placita Camaleon, expired today after 1 year, asking $2,950,000 ($478/sf).

The owners bought it in February 08 for $2,900,000 and listed it 10 months later for $3,125,000. That would have been quite a coup if they’d pulled it off, but they didn’t. I imagine it will be re-listed soon.

And on a more positive note, in Skyline Country Club, the folks at 7021 N Mission Hill Ln also got to the right price. Listed for a short while last year for $2,495,000, it was re-listed 80 days ago for a range price of $1,495,000 to $1,895,000 ($204/sf @ $1.495). And that did the trick, today it’s in contract. 

And loath to follow the pack, and not that it matters all that much, the owners of 7454 N Secret Canyon Dr upped their price today from $4,350,000 to $4,500,000.

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no time for blogging

Between the holiday and out of town clients arriving on Friday, it’s been a busy few days.

And like most buyers today, my clients, with a little help from yours truly, 
made the effort and took the time to really learn about the upper-end Tucson Foothills market. They didn’t just see a house, fall in love and say
I have to have it. No, those days are so gone. This was their 4th house hunting trip to Tucson. And with each trip we sharpened their understanding of the market and narrowed down the possibilities.

And because they now had such a good understanding of houses and prices, when the right one came along, they knew it and were able to move quickly and with confidence.

They arrived Friday morning and we looked at three homes. And by 7:00 Friday night we were in contract on the right house at the right price. And they’re thrilled, because they're confident they made the right decision.  

This house will be house #4 in the very short lineup of the only upper-end Foothills homes in contract since early October - only at the right price

Now if only sellers made the same effort, as buyers do, to price their homes correctly, we'd all be a lot better off.    

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if they’re shopping for bargains in the Big Apple

brokers say, more wealthy buyers have come back to the table, looking for fabulous apartments at a bargain.

…even in the luxury co-op market, where there are more listings, only a fraction have been priced competitively enough to attract buyers, brokers said.

Robby Browne, a Corcoran broker, said he had several wealthy clients seeking trophy properties but had nothing to show them that was “good to buy.”

When sales first began to pick up over the summer, brokers say, some of the best-priced listings were sold; they have not been replaced by a new supply of similar listings.

“Now when you can say you bought it at a third off of its previous value, it is not quite so embarrassing,” he said. “You look smart.”

Nowhere is the luxury drought more apparent than at 15 Central Park West, the new condo at West 62nd Street, which not long ago had a listing for $80 million. That unit, a 5,200-square-foot four-bedroom, finally sold in September for $37 million.

From The New York Times > Lots to Spend, Little to Buy

Sound familiar!

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a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market

for Single family homes, by price range

$0 - $499
170 for sale > 44 in contract > 49 sold (60 days)
= a 6.9 month supply of homes for sale

$500 - $749
108 for sale > 16 in contract > 21 sold (“ “)
= a 10+ month supply of homes for sale

$750 - $999
66 for sale > 5 in contract > 9 sold
= a 14+ month supply of homes for sale

$1.0 - $1.499
55 for sale > 3 in contract > 3 sold
= a 36+ month supply of homes for sale

$1.5 - $1.999
21 for sale > 0 in contract > 0 sold
= the jury is out on the months supply of homes for sale

$2.0 & UP
43 for sale > 1 in contract > 1 sold
= an 86 month supply of homes for sale

Get the picture

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

psst! the cheat sheet

It’s been announced that beginning November 16th the TAR will be turning on GREEN features in the MLS.

Huh! GREEN features?

This will allow for more accurate listings by enabling the broker to include those aspects of the property that address environmental efficiency.

TUCSON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE
RESIDENTIAL GREEN BUILDING FEATURES ABBREVIATIONS

Like these;

LOCATION, LOT DESIGN
Previously Developed - Built on a previously developed site
Infill Site - An infill site bordering existing development
Only native plants - Uses only native plants

RESOURCE EFFICIENCY
SIPS - Structural Insulated Panels
Insulatd Concret Frm - Insulated Concrete Forms
Natural Material - Natural Building Material
FSC Certified Wood - Forest Stewardship Council certified wood
Renewable Flooring - Rapidly renewable flooring (bamboo, cork, recycled
wood)

ENERGY EFFICIENCY
HERS Rating  - Home Energy Rating Score
Enrgy Smart Home Ratg - Energy Smart Home Scale Rating
Energy Star Qualifid - Energy Star Qualified
Utlty Co EE Prog Crt - Has utility sponsored energy efficiency program
Govt EE Prog Crt - Has government sponsored energy efficiency
program
EnergyStarAppliance - Energy Star rated appliances
EnergyStar Light Pkg - Energy Star advanced lighting package
EnergyStar Light Pkg - Energy Star advanced lighting package
Solar Hot Water Sys - Solar hot water system
Solar PV System Solar - Photovoltaic system
EnergyStar Windows - Energy Star rated windows
EnergyStar Skylights - Energy Star rated skylights
LowE Dual Pane Wndws - Low E dual pane windows

WATER EFFICIENCY
Grey-Water Lines - Grey-Water Plumbing Lines
Tankless Water Htr - Point-of-use tankless hot water heater
WaterSense Faucets - EPA WaterSense faucets
WaterSense Showerheads - EPA WaterSense showerheads

INDOOR ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
EnergyStar Air Package - Energy Star Indoor Air Quality Package
Kit Exhaust Out - Exhaust system in kitchen vents outside
Bath Exhaust Out - Exhaust systems in bathrooms vent outside
Whl Hse Air Filt Sys - Whole house air filtration system
Non Fmldhd Cabnets - No formaldehyde in cabinets

CERTIFICATIONS
NAHB Bronze - National Association of Home Builders Bronze
NAHB Silver - National Association of Home Builders Silver
NAHB Gold - National Association of Home Builders Gold
NAHB Platinum - National Association of Home Builders Platinum
USGBC LEED Certified - US Green Building Council LEED Certified
USGBC LEED Silver - US Green Building Council LEED Certified Silver
USGBC LEED Gold -  US Green Building Council LEED Certified Gold
USGBC LEED Platinum - US Green Building Council LEED Certified
Platinum
Reg Res Grn Bld Bronze - Regional Residential Green Building Program
Bronze Reg Res Grn Bld Silver - Regional Residential Green Building Program Silver
Reg Res Grn Bld Gold - Regional Residential Green Building Program Gold
Reg Res Grn Bld Emerald - Regional Residential Green Building Program
Emerald

Presumably these GREEN features will be included in the listing information available to consumers on the public MLS site and on LongRealty.com and other public sites. So study, there will be a test.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

face it- in the end, the value of a home is the price the buyer is willing to pay

Excerpted from The New York Times

WHEN Matthew White, a landscape architect, decided two years ago to sell his 1,300-square-foot apartment in Philadelphia, he knew real estate prices were plummeting. Nevertheless, he thought he could get $760,000, about what he had paid two years earlier, because he had made many improvements to the space, an airy penthouse with two verdant terraces.

“It’s an incredible property, with spectacular views,” he said. Within a month, he got what he considered an “insulting” bid of $525,000. Five price reductions later, he wishes he had taken that offer. “I wasn’t realistic about what I could get,” said Mr. White, whose apartment is currently listed for $449,900. “It is such a special place, but now I realize that doesn’t matter during a recession.”

Leonard Calandriello, a retired banker in Chandler, Ariz., said he felt “entitled” to $500,000 for the 1,975-square-foot town house he bought new in 2007 for $470,000, then upgraded with enhancements like plantation shutters and a travertine patio, spending another $30,000. But with nearby foreclosures and the developer of his community cutting deals, he has had to reduce his asking price twice since May, to $399,000. “We may have to come down more,” he said. “Psychologically it can really get you down.”

The attractiveness of construction and design elements is subjective, so experts said it might be as meaningful to poll your most straight-talking friends. “You may love your new sauna and think it’s a wonderful and attractive feature, but someone else may not care, or even think they need a deduction so they can rip it out,” Mr. Amorin said.

It’s hard to believe we’re still having this discussion, but we are, and for good reason.

From The New York Times - Getting Serious About Your House and the Market

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you never know

6025 E Fangio Pl in Alta Vista, listed for $824,999, went to contract after just 2 months on the market and sold today for $735,000. You’d think that after just 2 months the sellers would hang a little tougher on their asking price. Wouldn’t you.

also in Alta Vista,

6661 N Placita Alta Reposa is back on the market today with a new agent and a new price.
Until last week it had been for sale for 289 days – starting at $1,795,000 and ending up at $1,595,000. But since they paid $1,200,000 for it in 2004, when it was brand new, it’s not terribly surprising that it didn’t sell in 2009 at $1,795,000 or at $1,595,000. Why would it.
Now it’s $1,495,000, better, but they’re still hanging tough.

There are 15 homes for sale in Alta Vista from $529,000 to $2,100,000.
9 sold in the last 6 months – from $499,900 to $2,185,000 - so about a 10 month supply. 

and talk about hanging tough,

7180 E Ventana Canyon Dr on the market for 789 days for $1,999,900 – and not a single price cut - expired today and was immediately relisted for the same $1,999,900. Why mess with a winning formula. Oh, and the current owners paid $1,245,000 in 05.

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to find your Foothills home

why buyers and sellers see things differently

All the buyers I talk with are keenly interested in the market and in prices – the prices that homes are listed for, the prices they’ve been reduced to and from, the prices they’re selling for and the prices they sold for last year and the year before.

They’re looking very closely and comparing homes, one to another. They’re looking at $$/sf costs, both for listed homes and those that have sold. They’re looking at average and median selling prices this year compared to years past. They’re looking at days or, more likely, months on the market and % of sale price/list price. And they’re looking at the economy, at where we might be headed and factoring that into their computations.

Buyers are putting in the time and really doing their homework. And they’re not in a rush. They’re careful, skeptical and have a highly tuned bs antennae. They're looking at things as they are, at reality.

My sense is that most sellers are doing very little, if any, of that kind of market research. They’re not traipsing around the foothills for weeks on-end looking at homes and, with a critical eye, comparing them to theirs. They’re not comparing sold prices then and now and poring over data in an honest attempt to arrive at a marketable asking price.
They’re looking at comps, maybe, if you can find comps, and then maybe ignoring them, and hoping for a miracle. 

There’s that old cliché that’s always tossed around about buying a home is your biggest investment, blah blah blah.
Well it’s also true for sellers. Because you’re betting the farm, and if you don’t get it right in this kind of market, you’re bound to lose.