TheTucsonFoothills

high or low end, buyers are waiting for the right price

Yesterday I mentioned a house in Pima Canyon where buyers waited almost 4 years for it to get down to what they considered to be the right price – $1,195,000, in that case, vs its initial list price of $2,600,000 > buyers are quite content to wait it out <

And today a little Golf Villa in Ventana that sold for $375,000 in1999 - and was listed in 2008 for $749,000 – sat and sat and was reduced and reduced until it got down to $425,000.
And that did it - it went to contract and sold today for $380,000 - a 4 year wait to get what it sold for in 99. 

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in contract since Monday Jan 30

25 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills this past week

20  priced $175,000 to $529,000
  3  priced from $875,000 to $995,000
  and 1 squeaked in at a million +, but just, @ $1,025,000

That was the extent of it in the foothills this past week. Maybe next week, after Super Bowl!

earlier entries tracking contracts this past week > on Monday,  8 homes went under contract today and Thursday,  in the last 3 days 

And that’s with a surging stock market, though, with everyone still counting their winnings, 
it may be too soon for the wealth effect to have kicked in.

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how quickly things can change

 Just a few days ago I was reporting that a Golf Villa in Ventana had (finally) gone to contract, ( the market speaks) and I mentioned that > ‘the competition in the Golf Villas is stiff, there are 10 for sale and just 2 sold in the last 6 months …’ 

That was on the 17th. And then, in rapid succession over the next three days 3 more Golf Villas went to contract. So out of the blue we suddenly have 4 contracts in 4 days when, until then, there had been just one in 6 months.

Noted however is that, regardless of where they were initially priced, all of them were now listed at prices that reflect the current market.

>  to contract, to contract – 4 Golf Villas < (listed by Long Realty, Keller Williams, Coldwell Banker)

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the market speaks

In Ventana Country Club, a sweet little golf villa at 6987 E Nuthatch Trail sold for $255,000 in 2000 and for $290,000 in 2002.

Then in January 2010 it was listed for $425,000, and dropped to $399,000, then to $375,000 and kept dropping until one week ago when it got down to $299,000 and, voila, today it went to contract.

6987 E Nuthatch Trail Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

PS-  and the competition in the Golf Villas is stiff, there are 10 for sale and just 2 sold in the last 6 months. Normally, not a good time to be swinging for the fences.

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are these the deals you’ve been waiting for

2162 E Sentry Ridge Court, a 2009 built spec home in Pima Canyon which left the market last July at $1,755,000 is back on at $1,550,000 ($339/sf). But it started out in 2007- when it was still a hole in the ground -  looking for $2,800,000 ($612/sf),
2162 E Sentry Ridge Court, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And 4411 Camino Sumo in Cat 10 left the market in August at $1,295,000 and is back today at $1,195,000 ($263/sf). And it too has come a long way – first listed in December 08 for $1,650,000, then, after failing to sell, it was bumped up (not down) to $1,750,000, then to $1,699,000, etc., 4411 Camino Sumo, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

4907 N Camino Escuela was canceled the other day at $1,149,000 and promptly relisted at $1,149,000 ($252/sf) 4907 N Camino Escuela, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Likewise with 6144 E Finisterra Drive. Expired at $1,135,000 it was relisted at $1,135,000 ($223/sf). 6144 E Finisterra Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750 (Listed by Long Realty)

3540 E CALLE PUERTA DE ACERO, which, I mentioned the other day, was listed, and failed to sell in 08, for $2,695,000 is now back at $2,195,000 ($372/sf)
3540 E CALLE PUERTA DE ACERO, Tucson AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

4820 N Via De La Granja hit the market yesterday for the first time since 2000 – when it sold for $740,000 – now asking $895,000 ($201/sf), for a 1993 David Tyson design/build on a hilltop lot in Cat 10. 4820 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718 (Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

And in La Paloma, 6194 N Placita Pajaro, which sold in 05 for $735,000, showed up today at $725,000 ($199/sf). 6194 N Placita Pajaro Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Realty Executives)

Also in Cat 10, 4421 N Placita Camaleon. When it was listed last July 2011,
I said it would sell quick. Well, it didn’t, but then the Euro debt crisis hit right after it was listed and killed its chances along with everything else. It was $970,000 then, it’s $875,000 now, ($249/sf) Built like a fortress. 4421 N Placita Camaleon, Tucson AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And, finally, 1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, in Pima Cyn. It expired at midnight new years eve listed at $1,995,000 ($447/sf) and returned a week later at $1,995,000 ($447/sf).
Built in 2006, they got a head start and  listed it in 2005, first for $2,400,000, then for $2,800,000, then $2,690,000, etc. 1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Place , Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

And before you know it it’s 2012, and the market for high-end homes is still awfully tight and very unforgiving.  

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our in-season

This is it, the start of our in-season for home sales here in the Tucson Foothills – it runs from now through May or June. This is when buyers arrive from all those freezing cold places, looking for a place in the sun, as foothills home sellers put on their best faces.

And it’s usually the time when we see the most new listings come to market. But no, not so far this year. Most of what’s showing up as new listings are relisted old listings. Stuff we’ve seen over and over again. And for the first time in a long time we could really use some new listings, at the upper-end anyway. Where much of what is for sale has been for sale for so long, and has yet to find a buyer. And while we’re at it, how about some really big price cuts on that stuff too.

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hurry

Listed just 4 days ago, 5862 E Paseo Cimarron is already in contract. List price $440,000 ($162/sf), in Cimarron. (listed by Long Realty)

For homes listed at up to about $600,000 the Tucson Foothills real estate market continues to barrel along.

Here’s why I say that; 
There are 192 homes for sale from $0 to $599,999
and there are 70 in contract,
and 91 sold in the last 3 months, indicating that at the current rate of sales there is a 6 month supply of homes in this price range – a balanced supply.

But the prior 3 month period included the Thanksgiving – Christmas  and New Year holidays – traditionally a very slow time. As opposed to the upcoming 4 or 5 months which, traditionally, is the busiest time for Tucson Foothills home sales. We’ll see.

UPDATE: there were a couple of typos in the data as originally  presented on this post. (# of homes sold showed as 212, rather than 91, which caused the months supply to be miscalculated – apologies for the error)

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is it finally, actually, really, honestly, truly, no kidding, time to buy a house, is it

Over at SmartMoney.com , WSJ.com & Forbes they seem to think so,

SmartMoney By Quentin Fottrell
Time for Home Buyers to Go Long
Though real estate prices are barely budging, experts say this may be a good time to buy a house. But only for those willing to stay put.

WSJ.com By JACK HOUGH
It's Time to Buy That House

U.S. house prices have plunged by nearly a third since 2006, and homeownership rates are falling at the fastest pace since the Great Depression.

The good news? Two key measures now suggest it's an excellent time to buy a house, either to live in for the long term or for investment income (but not for a quick flip).

Forbes.com By John E. Girouard
Buy That Dream House Now Or Wait Until Prices Fall Further?
Is it time to buy that house we always wanted, or should we wait until prices fall further?

As a financial planner, I’m often asked that question and it frustrates me to hear otherwise rational people talking about home ownership the way a speculator might talk about the price of gold. Nobody needs gold, but everyone needs a place to live.

 What do you think,

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in shadow hills

1391 E Paseo Del Zorro sold for $655,000 in 06, $770,000 in 07 and for $575,000 today.

1391 E Paseo Del Zorro Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Like everywhere else in the Foothills prices in Shadow Hills are down, but unlike many other foothills areas houses in Shadow Hills are selling like crazy,
There are, 
just 3 for sale
6 in contract
and 8 sold in the past 6 months – works out to about 2 months of inventory

The market in Shadow Hills has been on the upswing for quite a while now, 

In April I mentioned it here > shadow hills is doing quite nicely

and in August here> have you heard, homes are selling in shadow hills

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a dwindling supply

From the WSJ.com real estate blog - The number of homes listed for sale fell for the fifth straight month in October, hitting the lowest level in more than four years.

By Nick Timiraos
Housing Inventories Fall to New Four-Year Low in October

That is also the case here in the Tucson Foothills.
Right now there are 365 single family homes for sale. During the last five years the closest number of homes for sale was in November 2006 when there were 395.

in Nov 2007- there were 505 for sale

Nov 2008- 591

Nov 2009- 465

Nov 2010- 496

Yet even with a dwindling supply prices are still weak and if anything still falling. Though it seems they’re falling much less and more slowly than they were.

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cheaper to buy than to rent

According to an article from Nick Timiraos on WSJ.com – Home prices and mortgage rates have fallen so far that the monthly cost of owning a home is more affordable than at any point in the past 15 years and is less expensive than renting in a growing number of cities.

That may be so, it may be cheaper, but, as the article also points out there are other important considerations that are preventing people from jumping on the it’s a good time to buy a home bandwagon. 

Read all about it > Stronger Lure for Prospective Home Buyers

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if you don’t agree with your home’s online valuation, don’t worry, just wait a day or two

Finally, The Wall Street Journal reports on the murky business of Internet home valuations.

Read all about it> From WSJ.com
By ALYSSA ABKOWITZ
How to Figure the Fuzzy Math of Internet Home Values
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Zillow’s zestimates is a subject that is near and dear to my heart. So near and dear that I’ve railed about it for years now. Why? Because here in the Tucson Foothills zestimates are not accurate and they’re not dependable and they can be very misleading.

And surprisingly, in the course criticizing zestimates I’ve taken some heat from readers of this blog. And while they didn’t necessarily disagree about the lack of accuracy of zestimates, they still defended Zillow. Why? Because they like Zillow, they like it a lot, for all the other fun and useful tools and information that Zillow brings to the party.

And because until Zillow came along, the Realtor® organization held all the cards and they held them very close and only doled out information as they saw fit and, often, only when and how it served their purposes. ‘It’s a great time to buy …’ho-ho-ho

By putting all that information in the hands of consumers Zillow has changed the game, big time, and in doing so they also forced the Realtor® association to either wake up and get with it or go the way of other dinosaurs.

And that’s all great and good, but I still don’t like zestimates, not for here in the foothills. Because, at best, they’re still hit or miss.

here are a few of my past rants on the subject of zestimates in the Tucson Foothills;

 it’s been awhile, (and things are slow) so let’s check in with Zillow
(check out the comments)

more on zestimates vs reality

and finally,
checking in with Zillow

There are more, but why beat a dead horse.

In a comment to one my posts, a reader (Rebecca @ www.littlered.com) offered what I think is the most apt advice on how to approach zestimates,

“ the zestimate is a fun toy -- a strange barometer not unlike a horoscope that shouldn't have too much stock put in it. when it makes you happy, that's great. but don't let it get you down”

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the beat gets louder

in the last 10 days, at $1,00,000 and up 

- 7 homes in the Tucson Foothills have been listed (from $1.095 to $2.250 and from there a big leap to $5.6 )

- 0 homes have gone to contract

- 3 homes sold, one of each - a foreclosure, a short sale and a normal sale – like the ark

and I’m involved in a deal that I can’t talk about at this time, but that will undoubtedly exert another big tug on upper-end home prices in the Tucson Foothills.

And of course that tug on prices is the result of buyer expectations.
Because even though we’ve had relatively few distress sales in the  foothills vs other areas, particularly at the upper-end, (though that appears to be changing) 
many upper-end buyers have nevertheless shown a strong and increasing resistance to homes that do not fall into the bargain priced category.

That’s just how it is.

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what are buyers buying right now,

The short answer is, not much.  

Since October 1st a grand total of 8 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills - many fewer than you might expect for this time of year.

And then there’s the price thing - all 8 are huddled in the $219,000 to $485,000 range – with not even a crumb going to the remaining 184 for sale priced from $486k to just under $8mil. That’s it!

I can’t help wondering where prices are going to have to go before buyers get interested in some of these homes, particularly the higher end stuff.
Where many of the homes are discretionary purchases – and where, in this environment, no one is going to drop a couple of mil on a house they don’t need, that is also, likely, overpriced for this market – unless and until it’s an exceptionally good deal.

like this one, where they practically had to beat the buyers off > have you heard, there are cash buyers out there

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it’s all the rage,

the price cutting phenomenon that swept thru the Canyons recently, appears to have now jumped the fence to Pima Canyon

2304 E Sentry Ridge Court, listed at $4,250,000 today dropped to $3,250,000

The question is, will this, like the raft of price cutting we saw in the Canyons,
catch on in Pima Canyon

We’ll have to wait and see, but a couple of weeks ago I did say, ‘… with so little activity at the upper end of the foothills real estate market I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slew of high end price reductions. Actually, I’ll be surprised if we don’t.

and I’m stickin to it. So who’s next,

2304 E Sentry Ridge Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

STOP THE PRESSES, 
1714 E Barrel Cactus is next, that’s who. Right on the heels of reporting the million $$ price cut above on Sentry Ridge, the owners of  1714 E Barrel Cactus Court (just up the street in PC and listed for $3.3) kicked-in $300 thou bringing it down to an even $3,000,000.
1714 E Barrel Cactus Court , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

ah, now who’s next?

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feeling lucky

@ $400/sf or more, consider this;
There are 21 homes listed for sale in the Foothills at $400/sf or more. And while that may not sound like so so many, also consider this;

So far this year just 1 home listed at $400/sf has sold. And none are in contract.

And last year wasn’t so good for $400/sf listings either, just 2 sold last year.
In the spring/summer of 09 - when we thought the worst of it was over - 6 sold.
But back in the good ole days – 15 sold in 08 (that’s, of course, in just the first 8 months of 08 too), 17 sold in 07 and 27 flew off the shelf in 2006. But those days are long gone. At least for the foreseeable future.

These days, with just 1 sold this year & 21 listed for sale, unless things improve drastically (and that does not appear to be in the cards right now) theoretically, it would take about 189 months to sell all 21 homes. Give or take, that’s 16 years.

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it’s contagious, another big price cut in the Canyons

7582 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped  $2 million today, from $9,995,000 to $7,990,000, now way down from the $13,500,000 it started at two years ago.
7582 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

This is on top of three other big price cuts in the Canyons in just the last two weeks.

7431 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped from $5,000,000 to $3,950,000
7417 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped from $3,495,000 to $2,995,000
7203 N Cloud Canyon Place dropped from $1,990,000 to $1,500,000

for more on Canyons price cutting see > cutting to the chase in the Canyons

Who’s next,

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the bigger they are …

There’s an article in today’s AZ Daily Star about Saguaro Ranch, the ultra-luxe home community on the northwest side that went belly up before it got off the ground.

according to the article,
In June, Kennedy Funding and Anglo-American took over Saguaro Ranch (for $14 million) after filing a foreclosure notice on the property earlier this year.

Developers of the property in Marana, led by Stephen Phinny, had defaulted on a $50 million loan recorded in December 2005, documents filed with the Pima County Recorder's Office show.

Read all about it, from The Arizona Daily Star > Real estate: New Saguaro Ranch owners turn to Tucson developer <

The article goes on to state that lots sold for about $1 million when the market was at its peak and that they are now selling for $300,000. That’s bad enough, but the truth is that lots sold for much more than that. The mls shows 15 lots sold from $1.1 to $1.9, with multiple sales at $1.3, a couple at $1.5ish, a couple at $1.6+ at $1.7+ and the king of the hill at $1.9. That was in 2004 to 2007. And then the music stopped.

Saguaro Ranch was an extraordinary development that promised the peak of luxury. And even though it is nowhere near the foothills, because it was so extraordinary, I’d mentioned it > here > here & finally here.

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behind those pearly gates

 Let’s sneak behind the gates of some of our more popular gated communities and see what’s for sale, what has sold and for how much

Going east to west, lets pick on Ventana CC first,

Ventana Country Club
26 for sale $345,000 to $5,200,000
12 sold (last 6 months) $339,000 to $2,200,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
26 @$1,288,367/$1,147,000	12 @$865,125/$803,750	13

Ventana was a late bloomer this year for sales. For a while it almost looked as if it just wasn’t going to happen – but homes finally started selling in June, and 10 of the 12 sold in the last 6 months have sold in the last 3 months. Also, and I know we’ll find this in other high-end communities, there’s that large gap between the avg price of homes that are selling vs those for sale. And that’s due to the fact that relatively few high priced homes are selling, relative to the number for sale.

Sabino Mountain
9 for sale $274,900 to $1,950,000
5 sold $250,000 to $535,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
9 @$716,878/$389,000	5 @ $342,850/$315,000	10.8

Once the darling of new gated communities  in the foothills, (though I never quite understood all the hoopla)  Sabino Mtn has lost some luster. While $1.2 and $1.3 sales were fairly common a few years ago, the highest sale in there in the last 2 years was $900,000, then $875,000, then $675,000 and on down. And 2 of the 5 that sold sold as foreclosures. If a buyer does come along for one of the higher priced homes on Sabino, how do you justify the price and what do you do for comps??

Skyline Country Club
10 for sale $439,000 to $3,450,000
9 sold $450,000 to $1,850,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
10@ $1,021,490/$749,000	9 @ $1,007,000/$705,000	6.6

Almost a perfect score across the board. List and sold prices are in agreement, and with homes at this price range that’s rare, and 6.6 moi is spectacular. And just one foreclosure amongst the sales, though 2 of those for sale are short sales. Skyline really came back this year, now lets see if it can somehow hold on to that lead.

La Paloma
20 for sale $204,000 to $1,990,000 
18 sold $250 to $1,640,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
20 @ $619,580/$547,000	18 @ $590,083/$527,500	6.7

La P has also been doing well. 6.7 moi is impressive in this market. And also with list and sold prices in close agreement. And because La P has done so well it makes me wonder what’s stopping Ventana CC, why aren’t homes selling as well in there.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
5 for sale $745,000 to $1,190,000
6 sold $497,000 to $1,750,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
5 @ $975,000/$970,000	6 @ $1,178,667/$1,200,00	5, WOW!

And Cat 10 also managed to climb out of a very deep dark sales hole.
After a dismal 18 month period from mid 08 to early 2010, sales finally started to pick up, and then they just kept going.

17 homes sold from Feb 1, 2010 to today (none were distress sales) – 7 of them from $1.2 to $1.750 - vs. just 8 sold in the 18 months from July 08 to Jan 2010  with the highest sale at $995k, then $775, etc. Cat 10 is back, and the current inventory is also at the low-end of the historical price range in there. (in April 09 there were 17 for sale and not a single sale since October 08 - look on the bright side, darn it) (in March 2010, there were 18 for sale at avg/med of $1,607,000/$1,499,500)

Hacienda del Sol Estates
0 for sale
2 sold $695,000 & $921,500

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
0	2 @ $808,250/$808,250	0

Nothing for sale, that’s special. And it’s probably a good thing to give it a rest.
Things didn’t go so well in there for the last couple of years – of the 11 homes sold
5 were distress sales. And as we speak there’s at least one more percolating off the radar. While the highest sale in the last two years was $921,500, then $853k, then it’s into the $7’s & $6’s. While back in the day sale prices of $1.3 and more were not unusual. 

Canyons (The)
7 for sale $1,990,000 to $9,995,000
1 sold $1,850,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
7 @ $4,395,714/$3,495,000	1 @ $1,850,000	42

What’s there to say that hasn’t been said. Nothing’s selling at this price range and who knows when they will. (the $1,850,000 sale was a foreclosure reduced from $5.0, while the last sale before that was 3 years ago, July 2008) Yikes!

Cobblestone
4 for sale $1,199,000 to $1,600,000
0 sold

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
4 @ $1,362,000/$1,324,500	0	?

4 for sale, none sold. The last sale in Cobblestone was last August, that’s August 2010. And talk about shadow inventory, there are 5 homes in Cobblestone that were for sale in 2010 & 2011, but didn’t sell, and were withdrawn from the market (between then & now) and have not returned. So maybe 5 additional homes are lurking in the shadows and waiting, presumably for better times, to sell. oy,

Sin Vacas
3 for sale $585,000 to $1,000,000
7 sold $500,000 to $975,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
3 @ $728,000/$599,000	7 @ $699,857/$640,000	2.5

hip-hip Sin Vacas, the poster child for a vibrant real estate market.
Why has Sin Vacas been doing so well? There may be other reasons, but I’ll bet a big one is price. As in, the homes in Sin Vacas that sold were priced quite a bit less (mostly in the $5 to $7k range) than homes in our other, loftier, gated communities.
Like Pima Canyon

Pima Canyon
17 for sale $825,000 to $4,250,000
7 sold $920,000 to $1,660,500

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	moi
17 @$1,857,524/$1,495,000	7 @ $1,289,143/$1,200,000	14.5

Unlike other foothills communities, Pima Canyon has had the added burden of lots of spec homes setting up camp in PC. Why, because when PC opened it doors in 2000, suddenly there were dozens & dozens of very buildable lots available for sale in this beautiful new gated community. And they all had utilities to the lot line and paved roads and everything a builder needed to get going. So builders and investors saw the future and bought up those lots and built spec homes on them. There was nowhere else in the foothills where that could be done on anywhere near that scale. And that went on until last year.

So to this day the spec inventory is still being worked off, while the downward price pressure of foreclosed spec homes, and others, continues to be a burden. Of the 17 homes for sale I count 7 specs. And that’s now, in 2011, after many spec homes have already come and gone.

And one more thing to keep in mind when looking at PC as compared to Ventana, La Paloma, Skyline CC and even Sabino Mountain. In those communities there are oodles of smaller homes for sale in the $200 to $700k range, (a range that continues to sell much better than $1.0 & up) while in PC everything is larger and higher end. Albeit, not quite as high end as some imagine it to be.

The End.

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the slippery slope

Tucson Homes 
Tucson Real Estate

This is a nifty new google chart from something called Google Trends that shows the world’s interest in a particular topic, based on the number of Google searches. In this case I entered the search terms Tucson Homes & Tucson Real Estate to see the relative number of searches from 2004 through today.

It’s been a long slippery slide, though searches for both terms appear to be up a bit for this year. Or at least were up for this year. We’ll see.

Oh, and I did try Tucson Foothills Homes etc, but there’s not enough data , i.e. searches, for google to pull together a chart for the foothills. Hey that’s cool, we’re an off the charts niche market.

I’ll play with this some more and see what other fascinating trends I’m able to unearth.

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is bigger still better

This came up during a conversation with another agent about how a very large house he has listed (more than 10,000 sf) gets no showings. None, zippo. And, not surprisingly, he doesn’t have much hope of selling it. But that’s not surprising either.

Really big houses just aren’t all that popular in the foothills. That’s what buyers are telling us. Looking back 5+ years to January 2006, just two homes over 10,000 sf have sold in the foothills. That’s it.

And one of them was the Javelina Dr house, the house in Skyline CC (10,901 sf) that after seven years on the market finally sold  a few months ago through foreclosure for $1,850,000 ($170/sf), which was about $350k more than I thought they’d get.
Or should get.

for my eulogy on Javelina Dr, see > another icon bites the dust <

On the other hand, if you are in the market for 10,000 sf, there are only 4 to choose from in the foothills > for sale over 10,000 sf < but still, I imagine you oughta be able to drive a pretty hard bargain

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Case-Shiller says

Falling home prices have been the norm for some time. Now, a momentary respite is at hand.

Home prices on a monthly basis rose in both April and May, according to the Case-Shiller Index, a widely followed measure of housing prices. Tuesday's release of the index for June is expected to extend that run to a third gain. This should provide the battered housing sector with some hope.

Read all about it > From wsj.com
 Appreciation in Home Prices to Be Fleeting

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a hot segment in a cool market

Despite all the uncertainty and concerns about the economy, the state of the union and everything else that’s rocking our boat, homes in the foothills priced up to $500k continue to sell like hotcakes - 22 have gone to contract since August 10th,

and 13 of them were on the market less than 50 days – while 8 of them were on
less than 10 days. 2 went to contract on the same day they were listed. 

Contrast that with the rest of the foothills market, that’s homes priced from $501k up to $9,995,0000, and what do get, 4 measly contracts since August 10th.

There are 184 homes for sale from $0 to $500k & 209 sold in the last 6 months, which puts the inventory at 5.3 months. More recently, 35 sold in the last 30 days, which still puts  the inventory at 5.3 months. So sales have been consistently good.

Contrast that with the other half of the market, homes priced from $501k & up.
There are 174 homes for sale from $501k to $9,995,000 & 134 sold in the last 6 months, which puts that inventory at a not too bad considering, 7.8 months.  
But more recently – in the last 30 days - just 13 sold, which puts the inventory at 13.4 months. Way too high, no matter how you look at it. Like high blood pressure, pretty soon something’s gonna give.

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on its own August is usually slower than slow, but with the markets as they are

 there’s just nothing happening in foothills real estate

And I’m sure that will change, I just don’t know when. And it’s too bad, because things were going along pretty well.

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my, how things change

5181 N Circulo Sobrio sold in June 2007 (before it all hit the fan) for $1,235,000 ($360/sf) after just 65 days. It does have stupendous views, I’ll give it that.

and a very southwest feel,

(these photos are from a previous listing of this home)

And then in Feb 09 (after it all hit the fan) it was listed for $1,269,000 ($370/sf) and, apparently, the views were not quite as persuasive. So it went nowhere, and today it’s still for sale, now asking $745,000 ($217/sf). In Cat 10.

5181 N Circulo Sobrio Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Real Estate Marketing Prof. 590)

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calling all affluent Brazilian buyers

MIAMI — South Florida is the default capital of the country. Here in Miami-Dade County, one out of five households with mortgages is in foreclosure. Nearby Broward and Palm Beach counties are not far behind. Nearly 200,000 South Florida families are stuck in the mire of default. 

And yet much of Miami is gripped by a housing mania as the oversupply of distressed homes dries up and foreigners and investors swoon. Only a few years after it seemed there were so many unwanted high-rise condominiums that the only solution was to tear some of them down, there are plans to build even more.

Home sales in the metropolitan area during the first half of the year rose 16 percent from 2010 for the best spring since 2007, according to the research firm DataQuick, far outpacing the negligible growth in the rest of the country. Two-thirds of the sales were all cash.

Prices, after a brutal drop, are firming up or even increasing. During the first six months of the year, there were 439 sales for at least $2 million, up 13 percent from last year.

“People thought it would take at least a decade to get back to this point,” said Peter Zalewski, founder of Condo Vultures, a real estate consultant.

“The Brazilians walk in, they don’t even negotiate,” said Mr. Dezer, who said he would announce two new projects by the end of the year. “It’s a no-brainer for them.”

Read all about it, From NYTimes.com

By DAVID STREITFELD
Published: July 26, 2011

Affluent Buyers Reviving Market for Miami Homes

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BIG $$$ vacation markets stabilizing

From WSJ.com

Vacation Homes: Why It May Be Time to Buy

I love this comment >  "People have frugality fatigue," says John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. in Irvine, Calif.

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no one is immune

The 57,000-square-foot Los Angeles mansion built by the late television producer Aaron Spelling closed Thursday for $85 million, or 43% off its asking price.

Candy Spelling, the seller and Mr. Spelling's widow, had been one of a select group of wealthy homeowners who sought to hold firm on their lofty asking prices despite the housing market's sharp decline. That group has steadily dwindled. Ms. Spelling's estate has been shown since 2008 and was officially listed in March 2009.
From WSJ.com

After Record Listing, Home Sells for a Mere $85 Million

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Owning a house remains central to Americans’ sense of well-being

From the New York Times
By DAVID STREITFELDand MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
Published: June 29, 2011

Despite Fears, Owning Home Retains Allure, Poll Shows

Nearly nine in 10 Americans say homeownership is an important part of the American dream, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. And they are keen on making sure it stays that way, for themselves and everyone else.

Read all about it; Despite Fears, Owning Home Retains Allure, Poll Shows

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talk about losing your shirt

The grandest of the grand ultra luxe boom time real estate developments has been foreclosed. It’s official, Saguaro Ranch, where lots were routinely listed and sold for upwards of $1,500,000, has been taken back by its two principal lenders.

And lately those same 4 to 5 acres lots  that were selling at around $1.5 back in 04 and 05, are selling this year in the $180,000 to $275,000 range.

Same thing with the few houses that were built in there. One buyer, one of the very few to buy a completed house, paid $4,950,000 ($934/sf) back in 06. While a recent foreclosure sale went for a much more modest $2.1 ($289/sf) after failing to sell for $5.4. 

So if you believe in the future of Saguaro Ranch, yes the lenders are promising to move forward with it, there are some drastically reduced properties to be had in there.

Read all about it> Developers lose luxury Saguaro Ranch

and I mentioned Saguaro Ranch back when it was a promising venture> Record Price for Tucson Home  > and then later > my how things change <

And, oddly, the Saguaro Ranch web site is still up and running > http://saguaroranch.net/

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bidding wars, they’re not unheard of anymore

Bidding wars, where two or more buyers compete for the same property, which were fairly common during the boom, but have been pretty much unheard of since then, are making a comeback.

On two very recent transactions where I’m representing the buyers - which are still active transactions so I won’t disclose the details - we ended up in bidding wars.  And on both deals there were not just two but three bidders vying for the homes. The first deal went very close to asking price, and we got that one. And on the 2nd one, where our offer was well over asking price, we were still beat out by a better offer.

There are buyers out there and they’re getting bolder and more aggressive about getting what they want. 

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someone got a very good deal in the Canyons

7454 N Secret Canyon debuted in March 09 as a 2009 built spec home listed for
$5.0 mil. And along the way it fell into mr lenders hands and finally sold today for $1,850,000 ($267/sf).

This is a beautifully built house with fine details, masonry construction and in pristine condition, etc, etc.
The real thing.

7454 N Secret Canyon Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Toma Partners)

I wrote about it > if you missed it the 1st time round, or the 2nd, or even the 3rd,

The sticky  wicket here is there are 7 homes for sale in the Canyons from $1,990,000 to $9,995,000 at an average of $580/sf.

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don’t miss the boat

In Pima Canyon, 2002 E Quiet Canyon Drive sold today.

Quiet Canyon entered the market in February 2010 listed at $1,200,000 and sold today for $920,000 ($227/sf) off a $949,000 list.  And while the sellers may not agree, I think they did quite well. They paid $850,000 for it in October 2003.

But, more to the point, since it’s on the southern rim of Pima Canyon, it backs up to old Ina Rd – not  a terribly busy road, but not a quiet, meandering little lane either. And not a plus in anyone’s book.

This sale, and the sale I mentioned the other day - by the side of the road – are, to me, sure signs the market is getting stronger. For all the time we were in the depths of the downturn buyers were extremely fussy about what they bought, and sales like this, with homes backing up to a road, just didn’t happen. Not unless they were an absolute steal. 2002 E Quiet Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Realty Executives)

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blogging vs working

I’ve absent from the blog lately because I’ve been very busy, non-stop really, working with buyers. I hope to be back soon, meanwhile, enjoy the break.
JS

for what it’s worth

Each month I participate in a survey of real estate agents across the country sponsored by Credit Suisse. The stated purpose is to help CS stay on top of the RE market and hopefully get a jump on where it may be headed. And now, after more than 4 years of mostly negative responses, for the first time there seems to be a glimmer of hope. Here’s the Tucson page from the latest survey results,

 

word is

the house at 5527 N Camino Real that I mentioned last week – the best laid plans – had two offers in the first 3 days and is now under contract for over list

Listed at $935,000 (($198/sf)

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east or west, where are homes selling in the Tucson foothills

Recently I’ve noticed a lot of new higher-end listings coming to market over in Ventana and Finisterra and around there. And, yet, despite all my talk about more homes going to contract lately, I’ve also noticed that not many of them going to contract are from the east side of the foothills, that’s 85750. Most of the action I’ve noticed has been in 85718. 

But instead of just going with what I’ve noticed, and maybe haven’t noticed, let’s have a look at the actual numbers for recent real estate activity in 85750 vs. 85718. And in case you’re not familiar with it, 85750 encompasses the eastern portion of the Tucson Foothills -from approximately Craycroft Rd east to Sabino Canyon Rd, while 85718 covers the area from Craycroft Rd west to First Ave, or, technically, to Oracle Rd. 

In 85750 (at $800,000 & up, since Feb 15th)

14 new listings (from $849,000 to $6,200,000)

2 homes have gone to contract (listed at $835,000 & $900,000)

3 sold ($849,000, $925,000, $1,525,000)

So while there’s been some activity, the bulk of it is in new listings - and who needs more new listings.

In 85718 (at $800,000 & up, since Feb 15th)

13 new listings (from $850,000 to $1,395,000)

9 homes have gone to contract ($925,000 to $2,120,145)

3 sold ($840,000 to $1,725,000)

So a somewhat more balanced market, at least recently, than in 85750.

On the other hand there are just 47 homes total, listed at $800,000 and up in 85750, while there are 80 in 85718.

OK just for fun, how about 85750 vs 85718 during the height of the market – 2005 – (at $800k & up)

85750 – 79 sold
85718 – 126

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more good news for Pima Canyon

2002 E Quiet Canyon Drive sold for $715,000 in 2002, for $850,000 in 2003 and for $1,100,000 in 2007. That was July 2007, just moments before the mortgage market meltdown. 

And then Quiet Canyon was listed again in Feb 2010, this time for $1,200,000 –
hey, if you don’t ask you don’t get, right. Well they asked but they didn’t get, not until they got the ask down to $949,000 – that happened last week – and Quiet Canyon went to contract yesterday. 2002 E Quiet Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 Congratulations! (listed by Realty Executives)

That makes it 14 for sale & 4 in contract – a giant step forward for PC 
At this time two years ago there were 26 for sale and none in contract – 
what's happening in Pima Canyon  from Feb 2009

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The rich are different from you and me: They're buying real estate.

so says CNNMoney.com

After four straight years of declines, sales of million-dollar homes and condos rose last year in all 20 major metro areas, according to DataQuick Information Systems. On average, these cities saw an 18.6% jump in high-end home sales.

San Jose, Calif., had the biggest market for million-dollar homes, with a 27.4% spike in sales last year; Phoenix saw the smallest increase at just 0.4%.

Meanwhile, sales outside of this price point actually fell 2.8%.

"It hasn't been a good six months for all people, but it was a good six months for rich people," said Glenn Kelman, CEO of Seattle-based real estate brokerage Redfin. "When Wall Street goes up, rich people buy homes."

And Wall Street has gone up: Stock values have nearly doubled from their March 2009 lows.

Read all about it > Who's buying homes? The rich

The market is improving and, no surprise, the drumbeat is getting louder.
I’ve said it here many times before, the Tucson Foothills real estate market lags other larger markets – NY, LA, Chi, SF … – by 3 to 6 months or so.
And that’s on both the down and the upside. Stay tuned.

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we didn’t make the top 15 list so let’s hope for a rising tide …

Barrons reports on the Best Places for Second Homes
while claiming that prices are rising in these areas.

Home prices in moneyed enclaves from Beverly Hills to Aspen to Greenwich climbed more than 10% last year, according to data from realty brokers and other experts and conversations with local residents. Though the rebound has been lumpy, the general uptrend looks to be firmly in place.

Two years after the worst of the financial crisis, the rich have dusted themselves off and resumed some serious discretionary spending. Both sales volume and prices are clearly on the rise for luxury vacation homes, one of the greatest indulgences of all. Prices for the majority of the 15 locales in our annual ranking of best places for second homes climbed in 2010, sometimes dramatically.

Read all about it > Best Places for Second Homes

Make no mistake, luxury home prices in the Tucson Foothills are definitely not rising. And I’m not suggesting they are. No way. But sales at the high-end are increasing. We’re seeing that. And once we get rid of the foreclosures and short sales and the other riff-raff, maybe then we’ll begin to see prices firming up a bit.

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sales are picking up in Canyon Ridge

It started late in December when 4694 N Rocky Crest Place sold for $700,000, then it got a big boost last week when 4781 N Rocky Crest Place sold for the astounding sum, for Canyon Ridge, of $1,525,000. And now 4625 N Rocky Crest Place, listed at $900,000, is reported in contract – after just 3 weeks.  What gives.

You see for all of last year – except for the late December sale noted above – there was just one measly sale in Canyon Ridge, for $650,000 last May. And in all of 09 there were only 2 sales – for $667,900 & $755,000.

now there are just 3 remaining for sale – from $639,000 to $1,074,000

Canyon Ridge is a smallish gated community on the east side of the Foothills, at the tippy-top of Snyder Rd west of Kolb

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still wondering if it’s finally time to buy a home

here’s the latest in a growing series of articles that attempt to answer that question but may, in fact, only cause more confusion, From WSJ.com >
Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash 

 which could just as easily been titled > Why 2011 May Not Be …

Fortune says,

Despite a flurry of positive data on the housing sector, it's still too early to bank on a comeback.

Posted by Nin-Hai Tseng, writer-reporter

here’s why;

It's still cheaper to rent in most cities

Prices are expected to drop further

Mortgage hurdles remain

Read all about it,
Homes more affordable, but don't expect a rebound

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and yet more good news on the (Tucson) real estate front

From CNNMoney.com
Housing Markets; Best Recovery Bets

Tucson, AZ

 

It’s baffling how news of the real estate market could have turned so positive so quickly. Virtually overnight we’ve gone from a bust to a nicely recovering market.

Nevertheless, we’ll see. But I hope it’s all true and we return to a nice balanced market where buyers aren’t afraid to buy and sellers don’t risk losing their shirts in order to sell.  Stay tuned.

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it’s baffling, but the news on housing has suddenly turned very positive

said Mark Zandi, chief economist (and a long time housing bear, my observation, JS) at Moody's Analytics. "If you can get a loan, these are pretty good times to buy."

From WSJ.com, read all about it > Home Affordability Returns to Pre-Bubble Levels

This is true to one degree or another in the Tucson Foothills, depending on the price range you are looking in. But even if it is not happening here, if it is happening in many other markets across the USA - and I can’t and won’t vouch for that - then some of those people who are (finally) able to sell are going to end up here as buyers. And that means more demand and a stronger market and, eventually, maybe even less of a buyers market.

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this is the market

6181 N Via Presilla sold for $675,000 in 06 and went to contract today listed at $475,000 as a short sale

6040 N Desert Sun Court sold for $895,000 in 04 and for $610,000 today

and 7461 E Ridge Point Road sold for $445,000 in April 08 and for $300,000 today

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The Wall Street Journal says,

Buyers in markets around the U.S. are snapping up homes in all-cash deals, betting that prices are at or near bottom and breathing life into some of the nation's most battered housing markets. …

‘snapping up homes in all cash deals’, and get this,
WSJ's Mitra Kalita reports more and more homebuyers are selling investments to pay cash for real estate, sensing a bottom in the housing market. wait a minute, wasn’t it just yesterday that the bottom was nowhere in sight

Read all about it> Cash Buyers Lift Housing
ironically sub titled, Bargain Hunting Boosts Prices in Depressed Cities

Sounds great. But it’s not happening here. Not yet anyway. But I have observed that foothills real estate usually lags both the ups and downs of other larger markets by 3 to 6 months or more. So maybe this cash buying binge is headed our way.
I hope so, but we’ll see.

On the other hand, it is a no-brainer that the high-end market in the foothills, where most of the cash deals get made, still has further to fall. Yes there are deals out there, and some awfully good ones now and then. But there are still many
high-end homes for sale that are living in the past, and a long gone past at that. 
And that, along with high inventory, is a key factor in why the recovery of the
high-end market is barely limping along.

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when all else fails

Go for it, make a reverse offer,

A reverse offer goes in the opposite direction: from seller to buyer. In some cases, a seller whose home has been on the market for ages with lots of viewers, but no offers, may enlist their agent to go back and approach several or even all of the buyers who have come to see the property, and make an offer to the buyer. In other scenarios, the seller's agent extends an offer to a particular buyer who has come to see the property multiple times and seems very interested, but has been hesitant to make an offer.

I saw this on Trulia >

3 Best Practices for Making Reverse Offers

Smart people are buying real estate

Well, if that’s true then …  
So says an article in WSJ.com & sister publication SmartMoney.com >
Real Estate: Finally a Good Investment?

Everyone hates homes.

Homes are probably the most hated asset class in the country. That's what happens when a bubble bursts. People avoid thinking about the value of their home. Sellers moan about no offers, buyers gripe about impossible lending requirements.

Hatred of an asset is often the precursor to contrarian interest, and being contrarian is at the heart of many investment strategies. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

Read all about it > Real Estate: Finally a Good Investment?

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still waiting for a return to 2006 prices

Celia Chen, a housing market analyst for Moody's Analytics estimates that Las Vegas home prices won't return to their pre-recession peak until after 2032; in Phoenix, the rebound will take until 2034; and Salinas, Calif., and Naples, Fla., won't come back until sometime around 2038.

and here I’ve been predicting that Phoenix wouldn’t recover until 2037
Read all about it > CNNMoney.com 
Vegas home prices: On the skid until 2032

patience is a virtue