TheTucsonFoothills

status quo

Plenty of action at the lower end of the market, barely a showing at the middle and other than the Canyon Ranch deal nothing at the top.

25 contracts since Monday,  that’s a lot, but 22 from $199,500 to $599,900, then one at $685,000 and one at $699,900  + Canyon Ranch. 

20 days with just 1 contract at $1million & up - 80 for sale – and with Memorial Day right around the corner you’d think we’d see some hefty price cuts, but no, nothing yet.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

anything yet

No, nothing. No contracts at $1,000,000+ in two weeks - 79 for sale - and the temperature’s rising.

As noted a few weeks ago the high-end market has barely budged since last year. And looking at it today it still hasn’t budged.

Sales from Jan 1 to April 30 @ $1.0+ 
(avg/med sold $ – avg sold $/sf – avg days on market)

2012 – 18 sold – $1,311,944/$1,247,500 – $277/sf – 168 DOM

2013 – 17 sold – $1,346,118/$1,275,000 – $277/sf – 223 DOM

Plus there are 9 in contract listed at $1.0+. And if they all close, and they all close in May, we’ll be at 26 sales thru May. Last year there were 25 sales thru May.

But the truth is, as mentioned in the April home sales report, that sales for the entire market have barely budged since last year.

Thru April 30th-  sales at $0 – $599,999 were 225 last year / 226 this year - talk about barely budging. But the difference is that $0 - $599 was selling like hotcakes last year and is selling like hotcakes this year, a sellers market, with a small supply of homes and a very big demand.

While the $1.0+ market, with a large supply and very iffy demand, was struggling to show signs of life last year, and the hope was that it would grow and increase this year. But so far that hasn’t happened. The biggest jump has been sales at $600,000 to $999,999 – 35 last year / 43 this year.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

are they selling faster now than they were in the past

Looking at very recent home sales in the Tucson Foothills for the period of March 15th thru April 7th;

this year 54 homes sold in an average of 94 DOM (days on market)
same period 2012 – 74 sold in 101 DOM
2011 saw 48 sales in 162 DOM
in 2010 50 sales trickled in in an average of 172 DOM

and for comparison to the good old days, in 2005 75 sold in 103 DOM

Why does DOM matter?

The Credit Suisse market report that I posted the other day has what I think is a good explanation – so why reinvent the wheel. (though I did not post this particular bit from the report)

Shorter time to sell reflects increasing buyer urgency: Our time to sell index – a leading indicator for home price trends – increased by another 5 points to 80.8 in March, indicating less time needed to sell a home. We think this reflects rising buyer urgency, driven by improving confidence, a desire to lock in low prices/rates, and a lack of supply across markets (our home listings index came in at 71.7, indicating lower inventory). This should continue to drive prices higher near-term.

We’re off to the races!

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

CREDIT SUISSE Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents – March 2013

I’ve participated in this monthly survey for some years and have seen it drop from the giddy heights of the boom to the darkest days of the bust. And now, recently, the mood and expectations, as reported in the survey, are very much on the upswing.

Survey Methodology
Source: Credit Suisse
We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an understanding of the existing home market as crucial to homebuilders as it represents over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the new home market.

Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives, inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In February, we received responses from 850 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends, levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend.
______________________________________________________________________________

The report is for the entire Tucson market but as far as recent trends, and March in particular,
I think it’s quite accurate for the foothills as well.

**If you’re having trouble seeing the report clearly, just click the report and it will open full size in a new window**

 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

Ivy Zelman says

‘We’re in Nirvana for Housing’

OK great, but who the heck is Ivy Zelman?

Ms. Zelman is the CEO of Zelman & Associates and holds over 18 years of experience covering housing and housing-related industries at various points in her career.

Zelman & Associates

Institutional Investor

Bloomberg Link

WSJ.com

A scarcity of homes for sale and record-low mortgage rates are setting up for a bullish real estate market, Zelman & Associates CEO Ivy Zelman said Thursday on CNBC.

"I think we're in nirvana for housing," she said. "I think that I have to tell you, I'm probably the most bullish I've ever been fundamentally, and I'm dating myself, been around for over 20 years, so I've seen a lot of ups and downs."

On "Fast Money," Zelman likened consumer sentiment to a battleship pointing down for the past several years.

"And then the inventory cleared, the blight goes away, consumers feel better and now it's really this urgency to go find a house," she said. "I'll tell you, there are Realtors blanketing neighborhoods, asking people to sell their homes."

Zelman correctly called both the housing market's top in 2005 and the bottom in 2012.

(Read More: Housing Recovery Leaves Some Behind)

Housing prices are poised to continue rising for the next four to six years, she added.

With all due respect for Ms. Zelman’s excellent record in making these calls, but from low interest rates and inventory and more upbeat consumer sentiment she (somehow) gets to Nirvana and rising prices for the next 4 to 6 years. That’s a big leap. 

Interest rates and inventory are low and consumers are more upbeat. But, unless they’re behaving very differently elsewhere, and they may well be, here in the foothills they’re also treading very carefully and putting a very sharp pencil to any potential purchase. And walking away when it doesn’t add up.

Who can predict what’s going to happen in the next 4 to 6 years. Myself, I’d also consider other opinions, including Robert Schiller’s, before counting my chickens.

A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: January 26, 2013
The New York Times

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it ain’t over yet, but here’s the weekend’s haul so far

7 contracts, from $156,000  to $475,000.

Late Breaking- 1963 E Quiet Canyon Drive squeaked in just under the wire. Listed for $1,050,000 ($290/sf) it went to contract today after a mere 84 days.

 

dream on home sellers

Bidding wars. Buyers paying cash. Homes selling for more than asking price. Are we entering another housing bubble? No. But prospective buyers in many markets may be shocked at the competitive nature of the home-buying process these days.

From WSJ.com
For Many, 2013 Will Be the Year to Finally Buy a Home

The number of homes for sale fell to a 13-year low in January, leaving would-be buyers chasing a shrinking supply of homes just before the spring selling season.

"It's not that the prices are crazy, but the buyers outnumber the available homes for sale."

There was an average of 4.8 months of supply of existing homes for sale in the fourth quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors (that is, it would take 4.8 months to sell off the inventory at the current pace). Six months' supply is closer to normal, says Celia Chen, a housing economist with Moody's Analytics, an economic research firm. In 2010, it went as high as 10 months. "Prices are starting to rise as a result of the strong demand relative to low supplies," says Ms. Chen.

Why they even single out Arizona, along with DC, as having the highest jump in the price index.

Ah, not here in the Foothills I’m afraid. At least not if you’re talking about anything priced more than about $500,000 – of which there are 218 for sale, that’s 56% of the homes for sale – or the occasional bargain priced distress sale. But if you can suspend disbelief for 5 minutes it’s an amusing fairytale.

Click Market Snapshot up at the top of the page for a quick peek at the current foothills market. However, in the past, the foothills market has trailed other larger markets – NY, LA, SF, and even Phoenix – by 3 to 6 months on both the up and downside. So maybe we’re on the cusp of a big turnaround and just don’t see it yet. I wouldn’t rule it out. 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

finally, a 7 figure contract in February

6000 E Finisterra went to contract yesterday breaking the 20 day dry spell on million $$ contracts. It was listed at $1,495,000 after starting out last Feb at $1,695,000.

6000 E Finisterra Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

1 down, 91 to go

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

 

 

 

After the traumatic collapse of the last price bubble, Americans seem less sanguine about owning versus renting

Another article from Robert Shiller, explaining  why he is less than optimistic about the prospect of rising home prices. From The New York Times

A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It

WE’RE beginning to hear noises that we’ve reached a major turning point in the housing market — and that, with interest rates so low, this is a rare opportunity to buy. But are such observations on target?

It would be comforting if they were. Yet the unfortunate truth is that the tea leaves don’t clearly suggest any particular path for prices, either up or down.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

“ the cheap talk is we’re off to the races again …”

From WSJ.com
Not so, according to Robert J. Shiller, Yale University professor and housing and markets authority, talks to Neal Lipschutz at Davos on the state of U.S. housing and stocks.

 

Here’s a link to the video on WJS.com > Shiller on Housing & Stocks < if the embedded link above doesn’t play.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

when the right one comes along

The 5 highest priced homes to go to contract in this new year are listed at $999,000, $1,175,000, $1,200,000, $1,545,000 and $1,625,000 - and 4 of the 5 were brand new listings (not relisted old listings) that went to contract in 6 days or less. The $1.2 house was gone before sunset on day 1. And they’re not foreclosures or short sales, and they’re not bargain basement priced either.

Back in 2009 – 2011, and less so in 2012, it was almost unheard of for homes in this price range to go to contract so quickly – unless they were foreclosures or short sales at blatantly bargain prices. But back then sales and prices were falling through the floor, and with no end in sight buyers correctly assumed that time was on their side.

But things have changed. And if these quick contracts are indicative of what is to be, taking a wait and see attitude may leave you empty handed.

But all is not rosy, there are still 88 homes listed for sale from $999,000 to $7,900,000, the majority of which have been on the market for months or years with no takers. And I have to assume that for many of them it’s all about price. What else can it be.

5 to contract

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

a quick flip in Skyline CC

6682 N LOS LEONES sold for $470,000 this past April, and looked like this;

this,

and this,

 

And after a full face-lift in the kitchen,

 

and a nip here

and a tuck there,

along with what looks like staged furniture (I never did see it in person) it was listed 29 days ago for $695,000, and is already in contract.

Then - 6682 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Now - 6682 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

Teardowns and more modest remodels to flip, such as this one, were all the rage in Skyline CC before the market fell apart. And maybe, hopefully, this is a sign that the market is strong enough to once again encourage this activity.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

one year ago today

under the headline > what are buyers buying right now, < I wrote;

The short answer is, not much.

Since October 1st a grand total of 8 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills - many fewer than you might expect for this time of year.

And then there’s the price thing - all 8 are huddled in the $219,000 to $485,000 range – with not even a crumb going to the remaining 184 for sale priced from $486k to just under $8mil. That’s it!

Today, with 21 homes going to contract since October 1st, we’ve trounced last year’s record. Left it in the dust. But in the price thing the 21 contracts run just a tad higher than last October, from $143,900 to $624,900 - with nary a crumb going to the remaining 155 for sale priced from $625,000 to just under $8mil. That’s early October for you.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

big doins

and lots of them,

7557 N Secret Canyon Drive is back in play after a summer break.
Listed at $3,250,000 when it left the market in July it’s back today at $3,250,000 ($620/sf).
But that’s a long way from it’s debut price of $5,500,000 in October 2010, and there have been a couple of sales in the Canyons lately, though in the low $2 mil range.
7557 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s Int Realty 472203)

A new spec home in La Paloma - 6220 N Cadena De Montanas – on .46 acres, 4400 sf,
5 Bed/4.5 Bath, 1 story, listed as a contemporary. No pictures yet and no mention of a completion date. 6220 N Cadena De Montanas Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

4128 N Sunset Cliff Place on Sabino Mountain sold for $439,000 in 2010 and is in contract after just 1 day on the market listed at $440,000 . 4128 N Sunset Cliff Place Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona 4783) 

A new listing In Alta Vista - 6155 E Avenida De Chaparron is now available for $985,000 ($224/sf) after selling for $1,267,000 in 06. I’ll bet it won’t be hanging around very long.
6155 E Avenida De Chaparron Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

No surprises here but 6470 N Thimble Pass, a gorgeous home in Ventana that I’d mentioned HERE & HERE is in contract again, listed at $1,795,000 -  6470 N Thimble Pass Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

And 7502 N Whisper Canyon Place, the lowest priced home in Pima Canyon, listed in June for $745,000 and recently reduced to $725,000 is in contract. It last sold for $690,000 in 02.     7502 N Whisper Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And nearly 05 prices in Alta Vista - 6051 N Paseo Zaldivar, which sold for $1,266,000 in 05 sold again today for $1,180,000 ($235/sf). More than I guessed it would get, though my guess was back in March before things really took off.  6051 N Paseo Zaldivar Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

And last but by no means least, in Sin Vacas, 7373 N Camino Sin Vacas sold for $1,400,000 today, Yikes!, That’s way up there on the charts, one of the highest sales ever in Sin Vacas.
In 05, 06 and 07 there were 3 sales at $1,475,000 (yes all 3 at $1.475, on the nose) and 1 sale for $1.5 in 02. 7373 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Realty Executives Tucson Elite 498301)

So this is encouraging news, well at least it is if you’re a seller or a real estate agent. But even if you’re a buyer, these contracts and sales are another sign that the market is getting stronger, and that maybe now you can buy with some degree of confidence.

The End

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

same time last year

Last September I did a piece titled > behind those pearly gates < that looked at what’s for sale, what has sold and for how much in some of our more popular gated communities. And I thought it’s worth having a look at those same communities this September and see how they’re holding up.

So let’s once again sneak behind those pearly gates and see what’s what.

Going east to west and starting with Ventana CC;

Ventana Country Club
24 for sale $449,000 to $5,200,000
10 sold (last 6 months) $331,500 to $1,500,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
24 @ $1,319,679/$944,500	10 @ $704,915/$425,000	14.4

7 of the 10 sales were at $710 or below, then 3 from $1.2 to $1.5. Yet of the 24 for sale, 18 start at $725 and go up to $5.2. It appears that the market in Ventana has taken a baby step backward from this time last year – the  gap between for sale &  sold prices has widened, fewer homes have sold and the MOI is higher.  

Sabino Mountain
7 for sale $289,800 to $899,900
6 sold $253,000 to $610,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
7 @ $560,371/$389,000	6 @ $383,150/$315,700	7

The good news is that none of the 6 sold were distress sales. (2 were last year) and none of those for sale are distress sales either and the moi is down. But the not so good news is that the highest sale was $610,000. And - why reinvent the wheel – as I said in last year’s post >
Once the darling of new gated communities in the foothills, (though I never quite understood all the hoopla) Sabino Mtn has lost some luster (haven’t they all though) While $1.2 and $1.3 sales were fairly common a few years ago, the highest sale in there in the last 2 years was (is)  one at $875,000 then $675,000 then … 

Skyline Country Club
5 for sale from $1,230,000 to $3,450,000
9 sold from $308,000 to $912,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
5@ $2,044,000/$1,295,000	9 @ $574,111/$500,000	3.3

Yes fantastic, have you heard, just 5 for sale and 9 sold = just 3.3 MOI. But YIKES! Everything for sale is well above a million while everything sold is well below.
This is a giant step backward from last year when the price of homes for sale and sold were on much more equal footing. > see it here.

La Paloma 
16 for sale for $238,900 to $1,399,000
wow! 28 sold from $220,000 to $1,065,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
16 @ $599,838/$508,750	28 @ $438,155/$405,000	3.4

The low to lowmid-end is selling like crazy in La P. Of the 28 sold, 27 sold from $220,000 to $629,000 – then a big jump to 1 lonely sale at $1,065,000. While the 16 for sale- 12 are priced from $238,900 to $629,000 then $729,000, $760,000, and 1 each at $1,299,000 and $1,399,000. Still, with the exception of a coupe of outliers, La P appears to be doing extremely well.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
5 for sale from $625,000 to $2,000,000
7 sold from $800,000 to $1,570,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
5 @  $1,243,000/$1,245,000	7 @$985,571/$842,000	4.3

After pulling out of a long dark slide last year, Cat 10 continues to do well - though with a price gap between those for sale and sold a bit wider than is ideal.  

Hacienda del Sol Estates
3 for sale from $905,850 to $1,795,000
5 sold from $590,000 to $1,310,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
3 @ $1,298,617/$1,195,000	5 @ $827,000/$735,000	3.6

Hacienda del Sol has  had a string of solid sales this spring and summer. And unlike during the bust years when HDS had quite a few distress sales, just one of those sold was a distress sale. But there is a newly minted foreclosure just listed, but hopefully it will be the last of them.

Canyons (The)
2 for sale – take your pick -  $3,950,000 or $7,900,000
2 sold – $2,050,000 & $2,150,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
2 @ $5,925,000/$5,925,000	2 @ $2,100,000/$2,100,000	6

Believe it or not this is huge improvement for the Canyons. Last year at this time there were 7 for sale and just 1 sold in the previous 6 months = 42 moi. But the inventory has been whittled down as much by sellers calling it quits as it has from sales. 3 houses listed at $2,795,000, $3,200,000 & $3,250,000 left the market unsold. And in addition to the 2 sales noted above there was $1,400,00 sale last November, that had originally been priced at $3,250,000. However, the buyers of the 2 that went for $2,050,000 & $2,150,000 did very well. I think they’ll look back, if they haven’t already, and thank the day they made those deals.

Cobblestone
geez, 10 for sale from $749,000 to $12,950,000
1 sold at $1,004,965

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
10 @ $2,405,800/$1,322,500	1 @ 1,004,965	60

Since last year, when there were 4 for sale and none sold, things have only gotten worse in Cobblestone. An try as I might it’s tough to put a positive spin on this one. 

Sin Vacas
1 for sale – $645,000
8 sold from $487,500 to $925,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
1 @ $645,000	8 @ $674,688/$678,500	0.75

Talk about a sellers market. And this is not new for Sin Vacas, last year I said - hip-hip Sin Vacas, the poster child for a vibrant real estate market. Plus, there’s a house in escrow in Sin Vacas listed at $1,590,000 that’s going to close escrow any day now. And I’m guessing it’ll go somewhere upwards of $1.4.

Pima Canyon 
9 for sale from $699,900 to $4,199,000
11 sold from $840,000 to $2,050,000

# for sale @ avg/median	sold (last 6 months)	MOI
9 @ $1,525,322/$1,295,000	11 @ $1,201,818/$1,075,000	4.9

Big doins in PC. Last year there were 17 for sale and 7 sold with moi at 14.5. And with 8 sales from $1,001,000 to $2,050,000, PC is once again way at the head of the class for high-priced home sales in the foothills.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

he who hesitates

4950 N Calle Bendita, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed 4 days ago at $400,000 and is in contract today (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

And quicker yet, 5201 N Via Condesa, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed today at $459,000 and it’s in contract (listed by Long Realty)

gone in a flash

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

there’s no place like home

With the sweet spot for NYC rental studio apartments approaching 400 sf, yes that’s 4-hundred sf, The New York Times reports on the trend to smaller apartments.(in the good old days it was a roomy 500 sf) And looking to a future where space may be at even more of a premium Mayor Blumberg is hosting a design competition for a 275 sf apartment.

In a Hot Climate, Rentals Shrink
The New York Times

 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

what a difference 3 months makes

On April 15th I posted a chart similar to the one below showing the # of homes for sale and sold from Jan 1 to April 15th in some of the more popular subdivisions in the Tucson Foothills -along with the median list and sold  prices and the resulting months of inventory for each.  Below is an update of that chart including the # of homes currently for sale and sold from
Jan 1 to July 15th, along with median prices and MOI. The April report is here > in your favorite Catalina Foothills subdivision

Sales have improved since the April report and months of inventory is down across the board. But median sold prices are still a mixed bag, up in one sub-d and down in another, and in some cases the MOI is very deceiving.

Take Skyline CC for example. It’s showing just 3 MOI, but the median list is $1,272,500 while the median sold is just $641,000. Does anyone really believe that the high $$$$ homes in there are suddenly going to sell in the next 3 months. I doubt it. Whereas Cimarron, with 9+ months of inventory, is running a median list of $452,500 and sold at $455,000.

And finally, with a couple of exceptions, most notably Pima Canyon, most of the high $$$$
sub-d’s are still struggling under the weight of homes priced where buyers have dared not tread. 

Subdivision	# for sale	Med List $	# sold	Med Sold	MOI
Shadow Hills	9	$495,000	8	$417,250	7+
Pima Cyn	9	$1,295,000	11	$1,075,000	5+
Sin Vacas	3	$645,000	9	$675,000	2+
Catalina Foothills Est 1-9	17	$599,000	30	$512,500	3.6
Cat 10	5	$1,250,000	7	$845,000	4.6
La Paloma Est	2	$1,082,000	2	$1,407,500	6.5
La Paloma (other than Est)	5	$559,000	9	$435,000	3.6
Cobblestone	9	$1,350,000	1	$1,004,965	58.5
Canyons	4	$3,600,000	1	$2,050,000	26
Hacienda del Sol Est	2	$1,595,000	3	$700,000	4.3
Foothills ll	1	$975,000	3	$1,100,000	2+
Skyline CC	6	$1,272,500	12	$641,000	3
Finisterra	16	$1,271,111	3	$565,000	19.5
Alta Vista	11	$949,000	3	$865,000	23.8
Cimarron	10	$452,500	7	$455,000	9+
Fairfield	13	$425,750	17	$360,000	5
Sabino Mtn.	6	$561,950	8	$267,700	4.8
Ventana Cyn Golf Villlas	4	$439,000	10	$345,000	2.6
Ventana CC, Cyn Est, Whaleback	15	$925,000	6	$1,267,500	16+
Ventana Cyn Mntain Est	3	$1,995,000	1	$1,700,000	19.5

**Finisterra and Sabino Mtn., which appear here, were not included in the April 15th chart.

And if you happen to hear there’s just a 4.4 month supply of homes in the foothills, it’s true. Sort of. There are 286 homes for sale and 420 have sold since Jan 1. And that works out to a 4.4 month supply. But as you can see, it’s just not that neat and tidy.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

Home sellers are staying on the sidelines this summer, which is helping to firm up prices in more U.S. housing markets.

From WSJ.com
Nick Timiraos

With Low Supply, Asking Prices Rise for Fifth Straight Month

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

77 homes sold in the last 30 days

64 sold from $165,000 to $595,000  (163 remain for sale = a squeaky tight 2.5 month supply)

10 from $600,000 to $950,000  (66 remain for sale = a comfortable 6 month supply)

3 from $1,200,000 to $2,500,000 (65 remain for sale = a very uncomfortable 21+ month supply)

So, same-old same-old, all but the homes priced over a million are doing quite well.
(*the 30 days measured are from 6/11/2012 – 7/11/2012*)
The average/median sold price for this group was $464,425/$375,000

And during the same period last year just 52 homes sold.
40 sold in the bottom price rung, 9 in the middle and 3 at a million or more.
So yes, the surge is at the bottom end.

And get this, they sold for almost exactly the same price as they did this year
$464,297/$375,000.

How’s that for coincidence. So we sold 48% more (low priced) homes this year yet they sold at the same prices, overall, as last year. And it’s only one month, so don’t break out the good stuff just yet, but until now we’ve been running below last years average and median sold prices.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

Sabino Mountain has taken its lumps

I noticed a new listing today on Sabino Mountain and it prompted me to take a look at what’s been happening up there this year. Here’s what I found.

There are 6 homes listed for sale, from $300,000 to $925,000 at an average/median list price of
$592,333/$567,000. 3 of the 6 are in the $3’s, then one each at $750, $895 and the new entrant at $925k.

And 8 homes have sold in the last 6 months, from $216,000 to $610,000, at an average/median sold price of $346,863/$267,700 – 41% less than the current average list price and 52% less than the median. Also, the highest sale in the last 18 months was $675k. On the bright side, with current inventory of 6 for sale and 8 sales in 6 months there’s just a 4.5 month supply. That is if anyone ventures up to $750 and beyond.

Flash back to the glory days of 2006 when during the same 6 month period 12 homes sold from $406,000 to $1,900,000 (yes $one-million-nine on Sabino Mtn) at an average/median sold price of $903,125/$914,250. And 6 of the 12 sold from $1,100,000 to $1,900,000.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

he who hesitates

Yesterday I mentioned that 4903 N Camino Escuela had just been listed > biting the bullet <
and today it’s in contract. 1 day, $899,000 and this is at the north end of Escuela where it’s a dirt road. So not everyone’s cup of tea.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it’s a great time to buy a home

That is as long as you can find one. With many fewer homes for sale, and more homes selling today than in years (402 have sold since Jan 1) buyers are having a much tougher time finding their dream home. And along the way they’re also finding they have to be more flexible and willing to compromise than in the past. And even though prices aren’t going up and, for the most part, only reasonably priced homes are selling, it’s not a buyers market anymore. That is except for the higher end, at let’s say around $1,500,000 and up. But many of them are still holding out for yesterdays prices. So they’re not going anywhere.

I see it everyday with my own clients and I see what’s happening in the mls. It’s frustrating but there’s not much to choose from in any price range. And as a result less desirable homes that have been on the market and bypassed for a year or more are now going to contract. And even newer listings that are less desirable because of this or that or a mediocre location, like being by the side of the road, are selling quicker than they have in years. And often without the drastic price cuts that it took to move them a couple of years ago.

And forget about those mega-deals on foreclosures and short sales. They’re few and far between and almost all huddled at the bottom end of the market. There are 290 single family homes for sale and just 21 are short sales or foreclosures (just 7%) and 19 of them are listed from $174,900 to $599,000, then one at $650k and one at $925k. That’s it.

And while there are a couple of $$million+ homes in the foreclosure pipeline, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more, if they’re a really good-deal when they do come to market they’re often scooped up in a day or two by a cash buyer willing to pay close to list price or more.

And a good part of the reason for the low inventory is that many sellers are just not willing or not able to sell at today’s reduced prices. And if that’s the case I think they’re in for a long wait before prices rise appreciably.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it’s half time

And a good time to check out single family home sales in the Tucson Foothills for the
1st half of 2011 compared to the 1st half of this year.

2011

342 single family homes sold for an average/median of $482,776/$414,000 @ $164/sf
and they sold for an average of 94.53% of list price* at an average of 161 cumulative days on market.

Looking at those sales broken down by list price;

253 listed from $0 – $599,999 sold (74% of total sold)
  64 listed from $600,000 to $999,999 sold (18.7% of total sold)
  25 listed from $1,000,000 & up sold (7.3% of total sold)

2012

393 single family homes sold for an average/median of $466,353/$365,000 @ $160/sf
and they sold for an average of 95.26% of list price  at an average of 88 days on market.

Looking at those sales broken down by list price;

309 listed from $0 – $599,999 sold (78.6% of total sold)
53 listed from $600,000 to $999,999 sold (13.5% of total sold)
31 listed from $1,000,000 & up sold (7.9% of total)
_________________________________________________________________________

So more homes sold in the 1st half of this year but they sold for less $$$.
14.9% more homes sold but they sold for -3.4% average and -11.8% median vs. last year.

And as you can see some of the price drop is due to a higher number and higher percentage of lower priced homes selling this year vs. last (78.6% vs. 74% last year) and a lower number and percentage of mid-market priced homes selling this year (13.5% vs.18.7% last year).
And some of the slip in prices may also be due to home prices still falling in the foothills. Though my sense is that that's pretty much behind us and what’s left, if anything, is relatively small potatoes. That is, except for the high-end, which is still falling and may well have a ways to go.

And a final note, homes are selling quicker this year. So hurry.
Average Cumulative days on the market (CDOM) are down from last year.

At $0 – $500k CDOM was 142 days last year and is 126 this year.
At $600k – $999k it was 196 days and is 166 this year
At $1.0 & up it was 257 days and is 192 this year.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

the drum roll please

Earlier this month I mentioned that 6151 E Finisterra, a spec home listed at $3,500,000, had gone to contract. > not everyone is pinching pennies <

And today it turned up as PENDING – indicating that it’s past inspections and on it’s way to close of escrow. This is a big deal. Because 6151 is the highest priced home to go to contract in the Tucson foothills since the summer of 2009. And for a couple of years now anything that’s been in the vicinity of $2.5 million or more has sold at drastically reduced prices. Will this one follow suit.  Or will Zillow’s zestimate of $3,248,900 carry the day.

6151 E Finisterra  Tucson, AZ 85750
(Listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it is every appraiser's professional duty to arrive at valuations that "reflect the market," including recent changes — whether positive or negative

so says Sara Stephens (say that 5x) president of the Appraisal Institute, the industry's largest association. And that’s the way it oughta be.

But in my experience over the last year or so, more than a few of the deals I’ve been involved with have failed to “reflect the market”. And I hear the same thing from many other agents.
And not helping matters, the methods used by appraisers to arrive at their valuations are inherently backward looking. They’re looking at sales that closed in the last 3 to 6 months. When the market itself – buyers & sellers - is much more attuned to what is happening now, today and tomorrow. Not what happened 3 to 7 or 8 months ago. Yes, 7 or 8 months, because if they’re looking at sales from 5 or 6 months ago they’re looking at buy/sell decisions that were made as long as 6, 7 and 8 months ago. Ancient history.

Meanwhile the market for everything from stocks, to commodities and gold to the price of an item on eBay are all trading based on current market conditions. Supply & demand.
While homes continue to be valued based on stale data. 

And though they’ve yet to crack the code, even Zillow is constantly tweaking their valuations. And while I don’t know what data is included in their valuation formula, I’m guessing it’s more sophisticated than just looking back at old sales figures.

Read all about it >
From The Seattle Times > Appraisers have yet to get with the appreciation program

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

The New York Times claims, Home Prices in the West Are Rebounding as Inventory Shrinks

Well, maybe. But there’s more to it than that. The article is not so much about the west as it is about Phoenix, where for a long time distress sales accounted for a staggeringly high percentage of overall home sales – like 50 - 60% and more.
__________________________________________________________________________
Home Prices in the West Are Rebounding as Inventory Shrinks

PHOENIX — Prices for existing homes here and in surrounding areas climbed by 25 percent during the 12-month period that ended in April, pointing to a decisive shift in the market realities of a place where foreclosed signs, abandoned properties and deserted neighborhoods became one of the most enduring symbols of the nation’s crippling real estate bust.

But hold off on the fireworks for a moment.

The rise in prices may be driven less by a resurgence in the local economy — real as it is — than by an inopportune dearth of houses for sale, as well as a steep decline in the number of bank-owned bargains hitting the market.

I think Professor Mayer hits the nail on the head;
Christopher J. Mayer, a professor of real estate at Columbia Business School, said the price increase happened because foreclosed homes, which were usually among the cheapest, were no longer widely available. In the Phoenix area alone, the number of distressed homes on the market fell by 81 percent in the year ended in April, and the number of foreclosures fell by 62 percent, the report showed.
___________________________________________________________________________

Here in the Tucson Foothills distress sales topped out at maybe 20% of overall sales, at their  peak. And for the period March 1 – May 31 for 2011 they accounted for 16% of overall single family sales while for the same period this year they inched up to 17%. A pittance of Phoenix’s numbers.

And as a result, unlike Phoenix, which is recovering from a deluge of distress sales, our prices have not risen. But they also never declined to anywhere near the extent they did in Phoenix.

During the March 1 – May 31 period last year  average/median sale prices in the Foothills were $495,550/$419,000 – while this year they’re $466/074/$375,000.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

they’re not gathering any moss in Pinnacle Ridge

Last Sunday morning I contacted the listing agent of a house in Pinnacle Ridge that I wanted to show later that day. The house had been on the market for just 5 days but I’d heard thru the grapevine that it already had 3 offers and I wanted to check that out.

And sure enough, the listing agent not only confirmed that they did have three offers, he also emphasized that they were three very strong offers. Well, so much for that. When it sells it’ll be the 7th sale in there in 6 months.

An AF Sterling community built in 2000 – 2003 or 04, Pinnacle Ridge did very well from the minute it opened its doors in 01. But they had a winning formula and they executed it well - great foothills location, district 16 schools, new, nicely built and appointed and moderately priced homes, (at least for the foothills) most in the 3100 to 4000 sf range, and though the lots are smaller, usually less than half an acre, most are laid out with enough space in the backyard for kids to play and a pool. And it’s gated. On the down side it is cookie-cutter, but it’s cookie-cutter done well. 

Most of the first time home sales were direct thru AF Sterling and so they didn’t show up in MLS. But looking at the resale sales starting in 04, Pinnacle Ridge followed the same rise and fall of other foothills communities - for a while in 2009 – 2010 there were quite a few for sale and very few selling and prices fell. But because of its appeal and the scarcity of anything else in the foothills quite like Pinnacle Ridge, I think it’s a no-brainer that it’ll be one of the very first to fully recover from the slide in sales and prices. That is if it hasn’t already.

Just for fun, here are the average sale prices for the homes sold thru the MLS;

2004 – $693,500

2005 – $752,500

2006 – $965,833

2007 – $968,333

2008 -  $1,033,333

2009 – $804,500

2010 – $684,400

2011 – $711,000

2012 – $642,583

So with prices down it looks like a good time to buy, but there’s nothing for sale. Nothing.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

what’s in contract now

Right now there are 139 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills, while 299 remain for sale

Of the 139 in contract;  (a reminder, for some reason these links only last 30 days, after that it’s kaput)

112  are priced from $0 to $599,999  (162 remain for sale)

  22  are from $600,000 to $999,999 (69 for sale)

   5 are from $1,000,000 & up (68 for sale)

average list price of those in contract is $474,653  vs  $894,772 for the 299 still for sale – a large gap.

And while there are 32 more homes in contract right now than there were at this time last year, the increase is all at the bottom price range ($0 to $599). While $600 to $999k is the same, and at a million and up there are actually 6 fewer homes in contract this year than last.

And those in contract last year  were at an average list of $545,711, with those still for sale
were at $786,599 -

So less expensive homes are going to contract while more expensive homes are listed but not going to contract, vs last year. Is this because sellers are raising their expectations & prices while at the same time buyers are lowering theirs. Or what.

here are the June 2011 numbers > what are buyers buying right now

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

Parlez-vous français?

A survey released Monday showed that the six-year slide in U.S. housing prices, coupled with the rising value of some foreign currencies and continued instability in Europe, is fueling a property-buying binge in the U.S. by wealthy foreigners.

From Nick Timiraos @ WSJ.com

Read all about it > Foreign Purchases of U.S. Homes Rise Strongly

the dwindling # of homes in contract this past week

week after week we’ve seen a decline in the number of contracts in May;

for the week ending 5/13 24 single family homes went  to contract in the Tucson Foothills

the following week, ending on Sunday 5/20, 27 homes went to contract

then, the slippery slope, for the week ending 5/27 there were 16 contracts

and now we’re down to 14 homes in contract for this past week, ending 6/3

Some of this is due to our usual summer slow-down – unless you really have to do you really want to run around looking at homes when it’s 102. But there’s no doubt that serious economic uncertainty, along with an administration more consumed with politics than results, is weighing heavily on many of us.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

in contract last week,

That’s from Monday 5/21 thru Sunday 5/27

18 single family homes went to contract - fewer than in the recent past and two of them have already fallen out of contract, leaving just 16 new contracts.

12 of them are priced from $219,000 to $590,000

then one each at $739,000, $999,900, $1,350,000 & $1,450,000.
So fewer contracts overall but at least we’re still seeing some action at a million and up.

16 to contract

for contracts from the previous week 5/14 – 5/20 see > in contract this past week, 5/20

And there’s no doubt that fewer homes are going to contract due to the low supply of homes in some price ranges. I face it every day with buyers I’m working with as do many other agents. And as a result it appears that some buyers are now more willing to compromise and are putting homes in contract that in the past were bypassed for one reason or another  – because of an iffy location or a difficult floor plan. Things like that that are difficult or impossible to change.

We’re at a new low, just 291 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

"This might be a strong season, but there's a good chance we'll continue down for a year still," said Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University. "There's too much uncertainty."

Home prices lowest since 2002
CNNMoney

Home prices hit new post-bubble lows in March, according to a report out Tuesday.

Average home prices were down 2.6% from 12 months earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets. Home priceshave not been this low since mid-2002.

"While there has been improvement in some regions, housing prices have not turned," said David Blitzer, spokesman for S&P.

Read all about it > Home prices lowest since 2002

Who am I to question Robert Schiller but, honestly, from what I’ve seen, I’d swear we’ve turned the corner.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

the last hurrah

Traditionally Memorial Day is the end of our high-season for home sales here in the Tucson foothills. Not that everyone closes up shop and stops buying and selling but the pace of sales does slow down for the summer months. And it usually slows more for homes at the higher price ranges, where we can least afford a slowdown. So as we enter the triple digit months it’s a good time to recap where the market stands.

There are 299 single family homes for sale - with a measly 14 of them as distress sales  (9 short sales & 5 foreclosures or 4.7% of total inventory) And by the way, is the alleged shadow inventory ever going to show its face. 

164 of them are listed from $0 to $599,999
68 from $600,000 to $999,000
31 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
17 from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
19 from $2,000,000 & up

287 homes sold since Jan 1 – with 53 distress sales (21 short sales & 32 foreclosures or 18.5% of total sales)

228 sold from $0 to $599,999
35 from $600,000 to $999,999
17 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
  7 from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
  0 from $2,000,000 & up (though there are 2 in escrow listed at over $2mil)

So the bottom of the market is the place to be - with 168 homes for sale and 228 sold in 5 and a half months there’s a very lean 4 month supply of homes
Moving on up to $600k were looking at a 10.5 month supply
At $1.0 to $1.499 it also works out to about 10 months
$1.5 to $1.999 is up to 13 months
and at $2.0 & up it’s still anyone’s guess

all told they sold for an average/median of $473,147/$368,000 @ average of $161/sf

during the same period last year,
252 homes sold for an average/median of $478,936/$413,000 @ average of $165/sf

So a few more homes sold this year than last but they sold for a few dollars less

Have a Happy Memorial Day!

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

don’t shoot the messenger

There’s been very little of note happening in Tucson Foothills real estate recently.

Today we saw,

3 new listings in the $3’s & $4’s.

5 price cuts in the $2’s, $3’s & $4’s

4 contracts at $135,000, $269,000, $351,900 & one at $599,000

4 closed sales at $375,000, $435,000, $537,500 &  one biggie (sort of) at $1,090,000
The biggie, however, started out in 04 asking $1,750,000, jumped to $1,850,000 in 05, then called it quits for six years and was listed last September at $1,395,000 and cut-cut  to  $1,249,000 it ended up at $1,090,000. After all that.

And that’s it. Another inauspicious day for Tucson Foothills real estate.

And it’s not that homes selling in the $2 to $500k range are not important. It’s just that they’re not particularly noteworthy since they’ve been selling like hotcakes for a long time now.  
And, lucky for them, it’s very old news.

What is noteworthy is that the rest of the market has suddenly fallen off a cliff. Again.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

 

not everything is selling like hotcakes

Up to about $1.5mil the Tucson Foothills real estate market has been doing
pretty well this year.

At the lower end of the foothills market, from $0 to $599,999
there are 168 homes for sale
112 are currently in contract
and 204 homes have sold since Jan 1
which works out to an extremely lean 3 1/2 month supply

moving up a notch to $600,000 to $999,999
there are 68 for sale
24 currently in contract
and 35 sold since Jan 1
which equals an 8 month supply, not bad at all, and with 24 in contract
it sure looks like this price range is still attracting buyers

in the 7 figures range,

at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
there are 29 for sale
just 4 in contract
but 17 sold since Jan 1
so just over a 7 month supply, very encouraging if you’re a seller, but with just 4 in contract 
I can’t help wondering if interest isn’t waning

at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 the clouds start rolling in

there are 19 for sale
just 1 in contract
and 7 sold = an 11 month supply. Not so good and, again, with just 1 in contract you have to wonder

and at $2,000,0000 & up there’s no wondering

there are 21 for sale (and most have been for sale for eons)
1 lucky homeowner is in contract
but not a single home sold this year
so it’s anyone’s guess how long it’ll take to even make a dent in this group

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

is the season winding down

I’ve been absent from this blog for a few days and mostly because I’ve been busy with actual real estate work that may eventually pay the bills. But even so, the truth is there hasn’t been much to report. I’m wondering if the season is winding down, maybe a little early this year, or is the recent droopiness of the stock market taking its toll. Or maybe it’s not that at all. And it’s just a natural, inexplicable, harmless and restorative, really, pause. We’ll see, pauses last a few days, and a few days are just about up.  Since my last post on May 3rd we’ve had;

a scant 7 new listings came on, 6 of them priced up to $652k then one at $1,295,000, but located in an area better known for homes priced at $652. So nothing terribly exciting there.

21 price reductions, 18 of them from the low $2’s to the mid $5’s then three in the $700’s,
and not a single cut in the upper ranges.

9 homes went to contract, but here again, 7 of them are priced from the low $2’s to $509 then 1 at $639 and 1 at $995. And, again, nothing in the upper ranges.

a measly 5 homes sold since May 3rd, and all 5 are in the $2 to $300k range. Honest.

But don’t despair, there has been some activity at the upper end. Three listings were canceled  – listed at $1,695,000, $1,395,000 and $1,749,000. The $1,395,000 listing started out in 09 at $1,850,000, so while they’re thinking they took a huge price cut, in reality they’ve barely kept up with the falling market.

More later, I hope

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it seems like everything’s selling

In Cat 10 5260 N Camino Sumo sold for $1,035,000 ($219/sf) from a $1,195,000 list price.
So while they took a little haircut from the list price, that was the original list when it first hit the market in November. It went to contract in early March, so 4 months from list to contract but it took longer than usual to close. And long closings are nerve wracking. The longer the time the more that can go wrong and derail the deal. (listed by Long Realty)

And tucked away in a very peaceful area near Sabino Canyon 6218 N Sabino Shadow Lane – listed at $1.295 -  sold for $1,200,000 ($257/sf) after starting out in December 2010 at $1,495,000. (listed by Long Realty)

295 E Rudasill Tucson, AZ 85704, first listed in Jan 2011 for $795,000 and recently reduced to $699,000 went for $699,000 ($132/sf) and not a short sale or foreclosure. But rather a 2009 built 5290 sf house on 1.28 acres. YIKES!! (listed by Keller Williams)

5221 N Rock Canyon Road Tucson, AZ 85750 started at an even million $$$ last May and finished today at $780,000 from an $899,000 list. (listed by Long Realty)

6682 N LOS LEONES , Tucson, AZ 85718 in Skyline CC did well. It was listed in February  at $489,000 went to contract a month later and closed a month after that, that’s today, at $470,000. Nice work if you can get it. (also listed by Long Realty)

6800 N Chaparral Avenue Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed last September for $549,00, had a couple of tiny price cuts, ending up at $514,000, and closed today for $477,000. Unfortunately, the sellers paid $782,500 for it in March 2006 – right about the time the market had its last burst before beginning its long, slow fall to earth. (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

SOLD Tuesday 5/1

We’re down to 311 single family homes for sale in the foothills, the lowest in my 10 years in the foothills

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

3 years and nothing, and now 2 contracts in 6 weeks

4411 Camino Sumo (now a short sale) has been available since December 08. And in all that time it never went to contract. At least not until last month when it dropped from $1,195,000 to the always irresistible $999,999, down from a very high high of $1,750,000. And that did it, it’s been to contract twice since then – the first one didn’t stick.

And of course the reduced price is what did it, but also, there’s not much to pick from in the $900 to $1.1 range. 4411 Camino Sumo  Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

supply and demand is again flexing its muscles

From the depths of the housing crash, let’s say in the fall of 08, there’s been an ongoing tug a war, a stand-off really, over prices, between buyers and sellers. For years sellers held out for a market that was long gone and just refused to face reality. But buyers also held the line, they either got it at the price they wanted or they walked. And of course the inventory of homes for sale ballooned. In April 09 I wrote > from the front lines

And that pretty much endured until last spring when things started to loosen up.
Because after a few years of slow sales and falling prices, plus those nagging low-ball offers along with foreclosures and short sales constantly chip-chipping away at prices,
home sellers finally got the message. And little by little they fell in line and lowered their prices to somewhere in the range of 2003 – 2005 prices. And sales picked up. And as more of them joined the party the market improved and the inventory of homes for sale began to fall.
(and we’re seeing fewer new listings because many home owners are either unwilling or unable to sell at these reduced prices)

And then we had that giant pause for the Euro debt thing last August and the consequent fall of the stock market, blah blah… 

And then 2012, when things started off slow but sure picked up.  And before you knew it we went from slow sales and many homes for sale to fairly brisk sales and the lowest inventory in years.
- on April 29, 2009 there were 585 homes for sale – today there are 327 -
- and from Jan 1, 2009 to April 26, 2009 135 homes sold – while for the same period this year 224 homes sold. So inventory is down 44% and sales are up 65% – the two faces of supply and demand.

So I’m not surprised now when I see a new listing come on that’s priced higher (instead of lower) than what it sold for in 2005 – 2010, or even 2011. And while there’ve been just a few of them, it seems like there are a few more every day or two.  

But I’m betting that even with brisk sales and low inventory, that this real estate recovery, if it is a recovery and not a mirage, which is barely in its infancy and still very fragile, is much too fragile to handle rising prices. And I’m also pretty sure that buyers, who are still extremely price sensitive (as they should be), will once again reject higher prices.  

But still it doesn’t surprise me that they’re going for it.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

uh oh

Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

more quick contracts

6760 N Placita Acebo , Tucson, AZ 85750 in Alta Vista was listed 9 days ago for $650k and is in contract today. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

7557 N Camino Sin Vacas, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed 19 days ago for $749,900 and it’s in contract. (listed by Long Realty)  Oh, and it last sold in 2005 for $760,000. So, what, a token drop from 05 prices?

6520 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 listed 39 days ago for $425,000 is also in contract.
(listed by Long Realty) That’s 2 for Skyline in 2 days.

And yesterday I mentioned 6540 N Placita Tia Ro,Tucson, AZ 85750 – a new and newly listed spec home in Alta Vista – listed March 1 at $1,249,000 ($309/sf) and in contract yesterday.
This is probably the 4th new spec home this year to go to contract so quickly, and a reversal of the fate suffered by so many specs during the long, dark days of the bust. (listed by Long Realty)

And for equal time, one not-so-quick contract.

5132 N Fort Yuma Trail , Tucson, AZ 85750 in Sunrise Territory Village (Fairfield) was listed May 2010 at $699,000 and after a few price cuts and nearly two years, it too went to contract yesterday listed at $599,000. (listed by Long Realty)

And here’s one that’s neither quick nor slow, but right in between,

4820 N Via De La Granja, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Cat 10 was listed on Jan 12 at $895,000 and soon reduced to $845,000 but had to wait until Monday for a contract. Imagine. So about 4 months. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

See them here > more quick (and not so quick) contracts in the Tucson Foothills <

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

it’s not the same old same old

I see it every day and I was reminded of it again this morning when I saw that 5238 E Mission Hill Drive was in contract. It’s been for sale for more than two years at pretty much the same price. It started at $795,000 for the first year and then for $749 since then. And then today, out of the blue, it goes to contract. And I wouldn’t be surprised if there were other buyers interested in it, but taking their time and figuring, hey, it’s been around for 2 years, what’s the rush.

We’re just now eking our way out of the worst real estate slump in decades, and during these last 4 or 5 years we’ve grown accustomed to having all the time in the world to shop for and make offers on the many homes that had been languishing on the market. 

But the market’s changing and many of the homes that have been sitting there for extended periods are now going to contract and selling. And a lot of it is due to sharply reduced prices. Prices that have gotten buyers off the sidelines and into the marketplace. But I’m also seeing homes that have been on the market for a year or more - without much of a price cut-  also going to contract – like Mission Hill up above. And every day new listings come on at prices that are attracting buyers a lot sooner than we’ve been accustomed to.

Here’s just a few examples.

6540 N PLACITA DE TIA RO, a new spec home was listed on March 1st for $1,249,000 ($309/sf) and today it’s in contract.

4625 N Placita Roca Blanca came on on March 6 for $1,595,000 and by March 8 it was in contract. And it closed on March 26  for $1,575,000.

2321 E Calle Lustre, listed since Jan 2011 was at $987,000 and then $949 and after more than a year it went to contract this March.

Similar story for 4803 E Placita Provida. Listed Jan 2011 for $1,095,000 and on the market ever since, it went to contract  and sold last month for $1,010,000.

But mostly it's big price cuts that are spurring sales. Like 7707 N Ancient Indian Drive which dropped from $2.250 to $1.495 in the past two years and still it didn’t move. Then two weeks ago it did.

And 1308 E DESERT GARDEN Drive which started at $1.280 two years ago and ended up at $840k last week.

There’s pent up demand from buyers who’ve been waiting for just the right deal to come along but are now finding that there’s very little to choose from. The market is changing.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

a quick sale at 2010 prices in Shadow Hills

5831 N Camino De La Sombra sold for $450,000 in June 2010 and was listed yesterday with a token price cut for $449,500. And it’s in contract today.

5831 N Camino De La Sombra
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

1st quarter home sales in the Tucson Foothills

The following sales data are for single family homes sold through the Tucson Association of Realtors from January 1 thru March 31 for this year and years past.
year  # sold @ average & median sold price

2012   171  @ $470,486 - $358,900

2011   151  @ $462,944 - $400,000

2010   143  @ $558,815 - $439,000

2009   109  @ $530,765 – $445,000

2008   124  @ $715,687 – $538,750

2007   140  @ $683,288 – $540,000

2006   202  @ $744,496 – $580,000

So, for the 1st quarter, sales are higher than in every year since 2006. yeah!
And prices are hovering, but we’ll have to wait another quarter to see where they’ve settled.
I think they have settled, but we’ll see.

And in the ‘listed at million$$ +’ category, last year 10 sold in the 1st quarter, and this year 15 sold. So that’s not too shabby either.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

well at least lower priced homes are still flying off the shelf

In the last 2 days 11 homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills. But they’re all priced from $150,000 to $489,000 – at the low end of the market – which has been going great guns for more than a year now. So no worries there.

But not a single contract for the more than 200 homes priced from $490,000 to $15,900,000 – where we really need it.

And the other day I noted; Things were barreling along until about a week ago but now there’s  been a dip in the action, just 12 homes to contract. (in 6 days, and 9 of them topped out at $550k. Then 1 each at $699, $749 and a possible record breaker (once it closes) at $2.995)
But one record breaker does not make the market.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

 

it’s not just us

For the past two months I’ve talked about and offered some details on the improving real estate market here in the foothills – more homes going to contract more quickly, very low inventory, higher sales and even fewer distress sales. Apparently many cities and towns across the country are seeing similar improvements in their markets. The rising tide …

From WSJ.com

Housing Shows Signs of Life

By NEIL SHAH and NICK TIMIRAOS

Real-estate markets are showing signs of life as falling prices spur buyer demand, lifting home sales and new construction from the depressed levels of the past three years. The spring selling season, traditionally the busiest period of the year, appears to be off to its best start in five years. Sales of existing homes in January and February were at their highest level since 2007, according to data out Wednesday, though sales in February edged down by 0.9% from January on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline in real-estate prices has slowed its pace, making Americans less cautious about spending and potentially more disposed to buy a home. For the first time since 2005, investment in residential real-estate, including home building and renovation, has contributed to U.S. economic output for the past three quarters.

"Housing bottoming is going to surprise a lot of people," said Kenneth Rosen, a housing economist at the University of California, Berkeley. "Housing was pulling us down consistently, quarter after quarter, for years. That was really over in 2011."

Real-estate agents and home builders from Florida to the Midwest and California are reporting more activity as buyers take advantage of prices that are down by one-third from their peak as well as low interest rates that have made housing more affordable than at any time in the last decade.

Buyers such as Jessica Ontiveros are running into bidding wars on properties. In December, she was under contract to buy a one-bedroom condominium in Corona, Calif., for $83,000 with a 10% down payment. However, the property fell out of escrow after Ms. Ontiveros ran into trouble obtaining a mortgage. Last week, she made a $200,000 bid on a three-bedroom home, but the property already had two offers. "I heard buying a home was going to be easy, but anything I can afford, an investor will come in and pay cash for it," said Ms. Ontiveros, a 26-year-old high school Spanish teacher who is living at home. She's anxious because "prices seem to be going up. I check almost every single day."

Read all about it > Housing Shows Signs of Life

PS- if you’ve been waiting for the market to bounce off the bottom, I’d say the wait is over.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

my, how quickly things change

Phoenix rises from the ashes

From WSJ.com
By NICK TIMIRAOS

Rise in Phoenix Housing Shows Path for Other Cities

PHOENIX—As home prices continue to drop in most cities, a nascent real-estate rebound here holds lessons for the rest of the country.

This sprawling desert metropolis was one of the hardest hit housing markets during the bust. Phoenix home prices declined 55% from 2006 through the end of 2011, and Arizona's foreclosure rate jumped to No. 3 in the nation in 2009. Hundreds of thousands of homeowners are underwater, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth.

Now real-estate economists across the country are studying an early but surprisingly broad Phoenix turnaround. The sharp drop in home prices has brought new buyers into the market. Unlike other markets where housing recoveries have been snuffed out by big overhangs of homes for sale and foreclosed properties, inventories are lean here.

"Phoenix has hit a bottom," says Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist who was one of the first to warn six years ago that prices in overbuilt metros were poised to fall.

The nation's hard-hit housing markets face a tough act: engineering a housing recovery without traditional trade-up buyers, many of whom are either unwilling or unable to sell because of huge price declines.

Phoenix has found a viable formula. Low prices are igniting demand from first-time buyers and investors who are converting the homes to rentals. The local economy is on the upswing with several big employers like Amazon.com Inc. and Intel Corp. hiring again, which is further increasing demand for housing. And the region is benefiting from a surge of buyers from Canada who are using their favorable exchange rate to scoop up bargains in the desert.

Local mom-and-pop investors are also playing key roles in soaking up supply. "I'm running my Realtor ragged looking at properties," said Robert Gerundo, who last month stood inside a two-bedroom condominium, scribbling his signature on an offer to buy the unit for $50,200, slightly above the listing price set by the bank, which recently foreclosed on the unit.

Mr. Gerundo has bought 13 properties in Phoenix in the past two years and rents them out for as little as $950 a month. The 49-year-old, who drives around in a Jaguar with a Rutgers sticker on it, says he is making so much money as a landlord that he quit his job last year in New Jersey as a banker.

Read all about it - Rise in Phoenix Housing Shows Path for Other Cities

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

the sweet spot

listed at $1,100,000 and reported in contract today, 3413 E Via Palomita joins a growing list of homes that are in contract and recently sold in the increasingly popular $875k to $1.2m price range - 13 in contract and 8 sold since Jan 1, and that’s pretty good.

Including some, quite frankly, that I’d pegged as looong shots.

3413 E Via Palomita Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

 

and then there were none

Yesterday I talked about Pinnacle Ridge and how its fortunes have changed from one year ago.
> then and now in Pinnacle Ridge, aka Paloma Canyon <

Sales are up and supply is down to just 1 home for sale,

No more, that home is now in contract as well and there’s nothing for sale,

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home