TheTucsonFoothills

curious about what’s in contract

Me too. Because looking at what’s in contract is the clearest sign of where the market is right now – and at what prices buyers and sellers are actively engaged in the market.

Overall, there are 139 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. And with 351 for sale, 139 in contract = 39% of the available inventory in contract. A very healthy number.
(Last month it was 105 in contract vs. 364 for sale for 28% of inventory in contract)

But also, as was true last month and has been for some time, most the action is still huddled at the lower end of the market. Though $600 to $999 has really perked up.

Here’s what it looks like by price range;

111 in contract at $0 to $599,999
    (with 190 for sale = 58% of available inventory in contract. that’s HUGE)

  19 at $600,000 to $999,999
     (with 87 for sale = 22% of inventory in contract)

    6 at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
      (32 for sale = 19% of inventory in contract)

    3 at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
      (21 for sale = 14% of inventory in contract)

    0 at $2,000,000 and up
      (21 for sale and nothing in contract = nothing)

Overall, and in 3 of the 5 price ranges, the ratio of homes in contract/homes for sale is stronger now than it was last month > what’s in contract < because demand has increased and supply has decreased and PS- we are at the lowest inventory in YEARS

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Foothills 2 is 2 for 2

and it’s lucky number 13, too

Two weeks ago I mentioned that 3632 E Windy Point Drive, listed at $1,195,000, went to contract in 13 days - (dead wrong)

And now 6941 N FINGER ROCK Place, listed just 13 days ago at $895,000, is also in contract.

6941 N FINGER ROCK Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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Foreclosures climbed in January + other cheerful news

From CNNMoney.com

Foreclosures climbed in January
Foreclosures picked up in January, yet another sign that the nation's huge glut of delinquent homes may soon start making their way onto the market.

The number of homes hit with a notice of default, auction sale, bank repossession or some other foreclosure filing in January rose 3% since December, but it was still significantly lower than it was a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.

+

Home prices at lowest point in more than 10 years
The National Association of Realtors reported that the median home price in January fell 2% from December to $154,700. That's the lowest price reading since November 2001, before the run-up in home prices that became known as the housing bubble.

+

Multi-million dollar foreclosures
Even these mega-mansions in some of America's wealthiest neighborhoods are not immune to the housing crisis. Duh

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you can ask whatever you want

7151 N Lemmon Rock Place sold for $756 in 06 and for $400k today – as a short sale. 
That’s a steeper drop (- 47%) than that experienced by many other homes in similar circumstances.

Could it have something to do with rolling the dice in 08 and listing it for $830k after paying $756k at the tippy-top.

7151 N Lemmon Rock Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

PS- even Zillow thought they should get more, they zestimated it at $440.

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talk about lowballing

Zillow’s zestimate for 6820 N Los Leones Drive, a new spec in Skyline CC, is $1,010,800.

Meanwhile Los Leones sold today for $1,525,000.

6820 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

zestimates vs. real world prices

The other day I mentioned that I’d recently seen some improvement in the accuracy of Zillow’s zestimates for homes in the Tucson Foothills, I said -  they’ve made some real progress and sharpened their game a bit. The zestimates are still hit or miss, but more often it’s closer to a hit than to a miss.

OK, so let’s cut to the chase and look at the actual sale prices vs. zestimates and see how on or off target zestimates really are at predicting home values in the foothills.

The following are all the single family homes (28)  that sold in the foothills (through the Tucson MLS) from  Feb 1 to Feb 19.  
( I put a ** next to those I consider to be on target, i.e. within about 5 or 6% of actual sale price)

But you may see it differently and feel that I’m being too generous or too stingy with the **’s,
if so, please, we would love to hear about it. 

Address	SOLD $$	Zestimate $$
4521 N Rocky Creek Circle	$182,000	$189,100  **
6100 E River Road	$225,000	$234,800  **
560 E Agave Drive	$245,000	$272,700  **
5311 N Via Condesa	$248,000	$289,900
3331 N Riverbend Circle West	$295,000	$282,400  **
7572 E Placita De La Prosa	$255,000	$311,100
4819 N Via Sonrisa	$305,000	$296,400  **
6084 N Black Bear Loop	$310,000	$269,400
4491 E River Oak Trail	$325,000	$377,800
6615 N Donna Beatrix	$289,000	$363,900
5440 N Ventana Vista Road	$345,000	$341,800  **
5130 N Pelican River Way	$368,000	$365,300  **
5498 N Crescent Ridge Drive	$358,000	$337,300  **
7065 E Townsend Place	$350,000	$342,500  **
5885 E Calle Val	$365,000	$381,300  **
5847 N Golden Eagle Drive	$380,000	$423,900
5862 E Paseo Cimarron	$420,000	$406,900  **
5132 E Camino Alisa	$475,000	$538,100
6860 N Solaz Primero	$450,000	$489,500
7308 N Camino Sin Vacas	$525,000	$506,600  **
4430 N Hacienda Del Sol Road	$554,500	$215,200 (-**)
4264 N Placita De Sandra	$600,000	$543,300
5759 N Campbell	$575,000	$544,900  **
2680 E Calle Los Altos	$708,000	$677,100  **
6079 E Red Cardinal Place	$775,000	$667,800
4455 E Coronado Drive	$1,035,000	$1,015,100  **
6070 N Desert Sun Court	$1,075,000	$1,004,800  **
3208 E Via Palomita	$1,750,000	$1,649,300  **

There are 28 homes listed and I **’d 17 of them as being on target. And a few are practically bulls eyes. That’s an improvement from where they were in the past.

But also notice that, at up to about $500k, when they miss the target, they often miss it by overshooting the actual sale price – in effect saying  they “think” those houses are worth more.  While at above $500k they’ve lowballed the actual sale price every time.  ??

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taking a fresh look at Zillow’s zestimates

In the past I’ve taken issue with Zillow’s zestimates because I’ve often found them to be wildly inaccurate in zestimating single family home values here in the Tucson Foothills. 
They were either way high or low vs. a home’s actual (and eventual) selling price. 
And then with a straight face they’d cover their bet with a ridiculously broad ‘value range’, e.g., zestimate $740,000 (value range $610,000 to $890,000) Well gosh, give me a dart board and I’ll gladly take my chances. (and don’t miss the caveats, disclosures and ….)

And after deliberately ignoring zillow for some time now, I’ve started checking in with them again. And it looks to me as if they’ve made some real progress and sharpened their game a bit. The zestimates are still hit or miss, but more often it’s closer to a hit than to a miss.
I’ll list some examples in another post soon.

And why did I start checking in with Zillow again. Well at least partly because so-called professional appraisals have become such a total crapshoot – and are so often so far off the mark that they’ve become a real handicap to making a sale. And that’s not to say that we can use Zillow to rebut an appraisal, but just as another opinion – and from what I can see, a more useful opinion than in the past. I must admit.

And of course these wacky appraisals are thanks to the new and improved regulations that now govern who and how appraisers are assigned. Which may result in the appraisal and valuation of the home you’d like to buy being in the hands of an appraiser from Vail or Glendale or Apache Junction, or who knows where  – who has little or no experience in the foothills.
And boy if that’s the case hang on to your hats, because, even with local experience, it’s often tough to do a proper appraisal in the foothills. 

At least when Zillow offers a valuation you’re free to accept it or reject it with no further consequences. But a so-called professional appraisal will make or break your sale.

Here’s some further reading on the appraisal problem >
Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers

and my personal experience with a wacky appraisal,

the problem with appraisals

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looking for a short sale in the $7’s

Well here you go, 5870 N Pierdra Seca, a 2006 built, 3700 sf, 1 level, 4 Bed, 3.5 Bath with pool was listed today and range priced from $700k to $770,000 - Aha, range priced. 

Anyway, the important thing is that it’s priced somewhere in the $7’s and the owners paid $1,200,000 for it in 2006.

5870 N Pierdra Seca Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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listed just 8 days ago and it’s in contract

6660 N Saint Andrews Drive – a beautifully renovated older home in Skyline CC, listed at $900,000, in contract.

I know this house well, I represented the sellers in 2004 when they bought it for $755k - time flies. And I meant to write about it when it was listed last week, but something came up and it slipped my mind. Congratulations to all. 

6660 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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was $799,000, is now $850,000

I’m seeing more of this. Homes on the market that are raising their list prices.

I saw one in Alta Vista that’s been for sale for a year, and today they raised the price 
$799 to $850.

What’s it all about, pray tell??

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Red Cardinal Place changes hands again

That’s 6079 E Red Cardinal Place in Rio Verde Vista III – a newer home in a newer subdivision.

It sold in 03, when it was brand new, for $947,943
then in 05 for $960,000
then last April for $715,000
and it sold again yesterday for $775,000

Now we know prices have gone down, not up, over the last 12 months and nothing of any consequence was done to the house to improve it, so why did it sell for more now than then.  Also, last April’s sale took 77 days and this time it flew off the shelf in just 18.
(and zillow’s zestimate for this sale was $666,600 –  down about 7% from last years price.
And going by the numbers that sounds about right. But that’s not what happened, human nature must have gotten in the way, darnit!

 Here are the listings from both sales, maybe you can figure it out.

Yesterday’s sale
6079 E Red Cardinal Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Coldwell Banker)

Last April’s sale
6079 E Red Cardinal Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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dead wrong

Asked what I thought about the new listing at 3632 E Windy Point Drive I was less than enthusiastic about its chances. And it’s a terrific house. And I know it well, I listed and sold it for $1,050,000 in 2005.

And though there’ve been some nice upgrades done since then, I thought in this market- nah, it would be a tough road at $1,195,000 ($322/sf). But good thing they didn’t listen to me. Because after just 13 days it’s already in contract. And I’m guessing that, given the quick contract, the offer must be fairly close to list too. You can’t beat that.
Congratulations!

3632 E Windy Point Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

everything has a price

Take 5615 N Wilmot Road, which has been on and off the market since 2007. And as of today is finally reported in the first phase of a short sale contract from a much reduced $675,000 list price. hip-hip

Along the way I wrote about it a few times, most recently here> Having failed to sell while listed for $899,500 in 2004 – when the market was roaring along - 5615 N Wilmot Road was listed again, this time in December 2007, for $1,299,000. This, despite …

5615 N Wilmot Road, Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Rich Realty)

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high or low end, buyers are waiting for the right price

Yesterday I mentioned a house in Pima Canyon where buyers waited almost 4 years for it to get down to what they considered to be the right price – $1,195,000, in that case, vs its initial list price of $2,600,000 > buyers are quite content to wait it out <

And today a little Golf Villa in Ventana that sold for $375,000 in1999 - and was listed in 2008 for $749,000 – sat and sat and was reduced and reduced until it got down to $425,000.
And that did it - it went to contract and sold today for $380,000 - a 4 year wait to get what it sold for in 99. 

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we’re bumping along at 2003 prices

In the 6 months from August 2003 to February 2004-
385 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $444,612/$360,000 at $156/sf

flash forward 8 years

To the 6 months from August 2011 to now, February 2012-
260 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $467,990/$361,000 at $155/sf

Want a more recent view – here’s what it looks like for the last 3 months

November 7, 2003 to February  7, 2004-
146 sold at average/median $479,965/$382,500 @ $163/sf

& now,

November 7, 2011 to today, February 7, 2012-
144 sold at average/median $494,792/$380,000 @ $158/sf

2003 prices!

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buyers are quite content to wait it out

And they demonstrate their resolve every single day here in the Tucson Foothills.

A good example for today is 1347 E Desert Garden Drive. It went to contract today listed at $1,195,000 ($259/sf) – hear-hear! Congratulations! yet another contract for Pima Canyon –
but not before taking a swing at $2,600,000 > $2,300,000 > $2,100,000 and on down, until it dropped to $1,195,000 two weeks ago – which only took about 4 years..

I also mentioned it in November when it dropped to $1,295,000, and I thought that would do it > now at 50% off its original asking price <

1347 E Desert Garden Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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the lucky 13

Listed at $800k and up there are 13 lucky homes in contract. 13.
And with 119 for sale at $800k and up, you can see why I’d call them lucky.

Where are these 13 lucky homes located;

2 in Cat 10
1 in Cat 7
1 in Coronado Foothills Estates
1 in Foothills ll
3 in Pima Canyon
1 in Sabino Mountain
1 in Skyline Country Club
2 in Ventana Canyon Estates
1 in Ventana Reserve (which is not in Ventana CC)

So 11 of the 13 are in gated communities, 2 are not- Cat 7 and Ventana Reserve. 
Based on this admittedly skimpy evidence, you might conclude that higher-end buyers prefer their homes be in gated communities. And, skimpy evidence or not, you’d be absolutely correct. Many more high end buyers want to be in a gated community than not.
Plus, at that price, most of the choices are in gated communities - 119 for sale at $800k and up, 96 are in gated communities. 

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it sold, but it sure didn’t come easy

3208 E Via Palomita sold today for $1,750,000 ($279/sf) - after having been at it since  December 2008 when it debuted at $3,200,000. Congratulations to all!

This is the biggest sale in La Paloma in the last 2 years. And though 2nd place was close behind, at $1,640,000, it dropped off very steeply after that.

3208 E Via Palomita Tucson, AZ 85718 
(listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc.)

 

a Joesler gets clobbered

The Joesler at 5051 N La Lomita sold for $660,000 in 1999 and was listed in late 2009 for $1,195,000. On the market since then it sold yesterday for $765,000 ($175/sf), off an $839,000 list price. And that’s with 2.7 hilltop acres.

An attractive Joesler, and one of the few for sale in the foothills, and, more to the point, one of a dwindling number of Joesler’s in the foothills, period – you’d think (I would anyway) it would’ve sold a little quicker and for a little more $$.

But I also think the initial list price - $1,195,000 – which they stuck to for 12 months was, ah, off putting. And like so many listings that start out too high, by the time the price got down to earth it had been on the market a year and a half and any excitement about it had long since faded. Isn’t hindsight wonderful

5051 N La Lomita Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

last summer I mentioned La Lomita here > even Joesler has to tow the line (at that writing it went to contract, but later fell thru)

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8 homes went under contract today

7 of them are priced from $269,900 to $529,000 - then 1 at $875,000.

The good news is that homes priced up to about $600k continue to do very well, but beyond that it’s still a crap shoot.

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list prices

I’ve noticed here and there, some of the new listings that have come on in the last few weeks are priced higher now than what they sold for 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 years ago. As if prices have gone up, not down since then. And I don’t mean just a few bucks higher, I’m seeing prices10% and more higher when, in fact, they should be 20% or more lower.

And I wonder what brings this on now. Is it because we’re in the early innings of our in-season and sellers & their agents figure there’s time to test the waters and still have time to drop back down if needed before June rears its head. Or is it because the inventory is low and they figure their chances are better now than they’ve been, so go for it. It’s possible, anything’s possible, it’s not likely, but possible.

But I recently met with a few sellers who wanted to list their houses, and I got to see first hand their thinking on list prices. And with a few exceptions I don’t even list houses anymore. I just prefer to work with buyers. But over the last few months quite a few people called me to talk about listing their house. And at first I just thanked them and declined, explaining that I don’t list anymore. But then I got more calls and I thought, what the heck, I’m not all that busy with buyers, that’s for sure, so maybe I should think about listing again. So I went on a few listing appointments.

And I was very upfront with everyone. I explained that I work mostly with buyers, but would on occasion take a listing. And that I was now considering dipping my toes a little deeper into the listing end of the pool. And after touring the house and chatting we eventually got around to the money part. We looked at comps and talked about the market and what I thought their house should be listed for, and why I thought so, and so on. And the more we talked the chillier it got.

And I found that many of them didn’t need me at all, or any Realtor really, they already knew what they wanted to list it for. And it usually had very little to do with the realities of the market. When push came to shove, though no one quite said so out loud, the attitude was ‘the heck with the comps and the market and all that mumbo-jumbo, this is a great house & I’ve got XX in it and I want what I want and that’s what I’m going to list it for’  Imagine, in this day and age?

And that cured me of the listing bug. And I’ve since resolved to stick to what I like best, working with buyers - except maybe for a past client, a friend, or a special property, that’s priced right -  and I’ll leave the chilly discussions to the listing agents who somehow manage to do it day in day out.

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and yet another contract in Pima Canyon

I realize my reports of one contract after another in PC may be getting very tedious, but it’s Pima Canyon, what can I do, I can’t ignore it. So I’ll at least try to make this one interesting …

7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive – first listed in February 2010 for $1,127,000 and failed to sell - 
is reported in contract, currently listed at $799,900 ($222/sf) – down about 33%.

You may recall that last March they announced a really creative approach to pricing this house. They announced right in the listing that they were going to drop the price $5000 every week until it sells. Is that a nifty idea or what. And, as you can imagine, if buyers weren’t breaking down the doors before, why rush to make an offer now that you stand to save a bundle by just sitting back and waiting. And time went by but no one took the bait. So they scrapped that idea and went back to the more traditional tactic of dropping $50k or so, unannounced in advance.

and PS-  this may very well take the cake for the lowest $$/sf sale in PC in many moons. (that is, not counting a few foreclosures that were ripped apart and needed $250k or more to put them back together)

7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br 70207)

now isn’t this curious

6702 N Los Leones Drive in Skyline CC sold in 2004 for $825,000 and it sold again today for more than it did back then, for $950,000. And since there’s no indication of improvements having been made during that interval, I’m, let’s say, surprised at how much it sold for today.

Is this an indication that the market is loosening up, or is it just one of those things.

In any case that makes two sales today in Skyline CC. And that is something. The other is reported just below this,

6702 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

another older 2 story sells in Skyline CC

7028 N Mission Hill Lane sold today for $700,000 ($164/sf) from a $750,000 list price. It was built in 1982 and it’s a 2 story with spectacular views. And maybe that did it.

And in the Catalina Foothills 2 story homes are tougher to sell. Because there are simply many fewer buyers who are interested in, or would even consider, a 2 story. Elsewhere in the country, in SF, NY, Chicago, Atlanta, etc. 2 story homes are the norm. But not here.

But seeing this sale I remembered another recent sale of an older 2 story home in Skyline.
So I pulled up the recent sales and sure enough there it was - 7077 N Mission Hill Lane – right up the street – also sold. 

And looking further, I found 4 more older 2 stories that sold recently in Skyline. Yes, there are plenty of older homes in Skyline and many of them are 2 story. Why. Well, one reason is that if they’re up on the hillside it’s a lot cheaper and easier and quicker to put up a 2 story than to prep and fill and level enough of the hillside to accommodate a 1 story home. And sometimes, even if you’re willing to take the time and pay the price there just isn’t enough hillside to accommodate a single story home of the size required. And above it all are  the views from the 2nd story

Here’s a link to the 5 two story homes sold in Skyline in the last 6 months 
- they sold for an average of 168/sf.

And while I was at it, I thought I might as well compare two stories sales to one story sales in Skyline and see what’s what.  

And guess what, 5 one story homes also sold in Skyline in the same 6 months.  
- they sold for a little more, $190/sf, but, it seems that in Skyline, anyway, buyers are just as interested in two story homes as they are in one stories.

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2011 sales, at a glance

That’s for single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills through the Tucson Association of
Realtors®  MLS

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is $9 something the new million five

In Pima Canyon,1495 E Canyon Spring Court sold for $1,550,000 in March 2006. Then it sold again in January 07 for $1,525,000.

And last November the current owners (who paid $1.525) listed it (as a short sale) for $989,000. That’s right $989,000 right out of the chute. And you’d think that would do it, but no, after two months nothing happened, so they reduced it to $939,000 and that did do it. It went to contract the other day.

It, is a 2006 built David Tyson desert contemporary on the most private lot I’ve ever seen in PC, and with big mountain views. And for those wanting an extra dose privacy and security, along with a tad more exclusivity, (and who doesn’t) it’s at the north end of Pima Cyn behind the 2nd gate.

1495 E Canyon Spring Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by MacMorran & Assoc. R.E. Svcs.)

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how quickly things can change

 Just a few days ago I was reporting that a Golf Villa in Ventana had (finally) gone to contract, ( the market speaks) and I mentioned that > ‘the competition in the Golf Villas is stiff, there are 10 for sale and just 2 sold in the last 6 months …’ 

That was on the 17th. And then, in rapid succession over the next three days 3 more Golf Villas went to contract. So out of the blue we suddenly have 4 contracts in 4 days when, until then, there had been just one in 6 months.

Noted however is that, regardless of where they were initially priced, all of them were now listed at prices that reflect the current market.

>  to contract, to contract – 4 Golf Villas < (listed by Long Realty, Keller Williams, Coldwell Banker)

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how’s the high-end market doing

Let’s look at the numbers and see.
At $1 mil and up there are 75 homes listed for sale
(average list price $2,166,359) (none are distress sales, yeah!)

There are 10 in contract - 
(average list price $1,388,400) (2 distress sales)

And 13 sold in the last 3 months
(average sold price $1,350,154) (3 were distress sales)

With the current inventory and rate of sales, there is a 17+ month supply of homes at $1 mil and up – about 3X what is considered a normal or balanced market.

And then there’s this - the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average list price of those in contract by 56% – and the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average sold price of those sold by 60%.  Why, because for the most part,  buyers are choosing homes from the  low end of the high-end inventory. And not from the mid to high-end of the high-end inventory. Make sense?

So looking at it with eyes-wide-open, it’s clear the high-end continues to be a very unbalanced market that is heavily weighted in favor of buyers. Or at least it should be. 
But there are still quite a few home sellers who apparently don’t care about that stuff, you know, the facts.  

On the other hand we’ve recently entered our high season for home sales here in the Tucson Foothills – a hopeful time which runs January to May or June – when, presumably, there are more buyers looking for, and buying, high-end homes. A time when, if the market is going to improve,(a very big if) this is when it’s most likely to do it. Of course, unless another shoe drops somewhere in the world.

PS – since January 1st just 2 homes listed at $1 mil or more have gone to contract.

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less than half of where it started

1347 E Desert Garden Drive had another price cut today, this one from $1,295,000 to $1,195,000 ($259/sf). It was at $2,600,000 in 2007.

1347 E Desert Garden Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 (Pima Cyn)
(listed by Long Realty)

Makes you wonder, are high-end home prices still dropping in the Tucson Foothills.

the market speaks

In Ventana Country Club, a sweet little golf villa at 6987 E Nuthatch Trail sold for $255,000 in 2000 and for $290,000 in 2002.

Then in January 2010 it was listed for $425,000, and dropped to $399,000, then to $375,000 and kept dropping until one week ago when it got down to $299,000 and, voila, today it went to contract.

6987 E Nuthatch Trail Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

PS-  and the competition in the Golf Villas is stiff, there are 10 for sale and just 2 sold in the last 6 months. Normally, not a good time to be swinging for the fences.

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price it right, sell it fast

In Ventana Reserve, 6042 N Indian Trail was just listed on December 20th and it’s in contract today.

And having paid $1,250,000 for it in May 2010, I’m sure it wasn’t easy to kiss off a couple of hundred thou and list it for $999,000 ($220/sf). But that’s the market, and the market doesn’t care what you paid or what you want.

6042 N Indian Trail Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

 

after 36 years it ends up a short sale

In Skyline Country Club, 6840 N Saint Andrews Drive has gone to contract as a short sale -now listed at $499,000 ($113/sf) - though not before doing the same old dance as everyone and trying for $849,000 and $699,000 and so on.

And sadder still, the listing says, Owners have lived in home for 36yrs and raised
5 children…

And in the only colonial I’ve ever seen in the foothills,

6840 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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are these the deals you’ve been waiting for

2162 E Sentry Ridge Court, a 2009 built spec home in Pima Canyon which left the market last July at $1,755,000 is back on at $1,550,000 ($339/sf). But it started out in 2007- when it was still a hole in the ground -  looking for $2,800,000 ($612/sf),
2162 E Sentry Ridge Court, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And 4411 Camino Sumo in Cat 10 left the market in August at $1,295,000 and is back today at $1,195,000 ($263/sf). And it too has come a long way – first listed in December 08 for $1,650,000, then, after failing to sell, it was bumped up (not down) to $1,750,000, then to $1,699,000, etc., 4411 Camino Sumo, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

4907 N Camino Escuela was canceled the other day at $1,149,000 and promptly relisted at $1,149,000 ($252/sf) 4907 N Camino Escuela, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Likewise with 6144 E Finisterra Drive. Expired at $1,135,000 it was relisted at $1,135,000 ($223/sf). 6144 E Finisterra Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750 (Listed by Long Realty)

3540 E CALLE PUERTA DE ACERO, which, I mentioned the other day, was listed, and failed to sell in 08, for $2,695,000 is now back at $2,195,000 ($372/sf)
3540 E CALLE PUERTA DE ACERO, Tucson AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

4820 N Via De La Granja hit the market yesterday for the first time since 2000 – when it sold for $740,000 – now asking $895,000 ($201/sf), for a 1993 David Tyson design/build on a hilltop lot in Cat 10. 4820 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718 (Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

And in La Paloma, 6194 N Placita Pajaro, which sold in 05 for $735,000, showed up today at $725,000 ($199/sf). 6194 N Placita Pajaro Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Realty Executives)

Also in Cat 10, 4421 N Placita Camaleon. When it was listed last July 2011,
I said it would sell quick. Well, it didn’t, but then the Euro debt crisis hit right after it was listed and killed its chances along with everything else. It was $970,000 then, it’s $875,000 now, ($249/sf) Built like a fortress. 4421 N Placita Camaleon, Tucson AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And, finally, 1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, in Pima Cyn. It expired at midnight new years eve listed at $1,995,000 ($447/sf) and returned a week later at $1,995,000 ($447/sf).
Built in 2006, they got a head start and  listed it in 2005, first for $2,400,000, then for $2,800,000, then $2,690,000, etc. 1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Place , Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

And before you know it it’s 2012, and the market for high-end homes is still awfully tight and very unforgiving.  

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a long way from where it started

In Cat 10, after a 6 month break 3731 E Sumo Septimo returned to the market in late October   listed at $929,000 and today dropped to $899,000 ($209/sf).

It’s on a classic Cat 10 hilltop lot, 1.6 acres, very private with nice views, beautiful remodel on the house, and if you don’t mind a couple of steps here and there, I think this is a hell of a house, and for $899, it’s a deal.

It started out in 07 at $1,500,000 ($352/sf) – and has been on and off the market ever since.
3731 E Sumo Septimo Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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our in-season

This is it, the start of our in-season for home sales here in the Tucson Foothills – it runs from now through May or June. This is when buyers arrive from all those freezing cold places, looking for a place in the sun, as foothills home sellers put on their best faces.

And it’s usually the time when we see the most new listings come to market. But no, not so far this year. Most of what’s showing up as new listings are relisted old listings. Stuff we’ve seen over and over again. And for the first time in a long time we could really use some new listings, at the upper-end anyway. Where much of what is for sale has been for sale for so long, and has yet to find a buyer. And while we’re at it, how about some really big price cuts on that stuff too.

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why follow the crowd

A house that has been on the market since February 2011, and didn’t sell listed at $800,000, was relisted today for $830,000. $30k, it’s not all that much, but still, 10 months and no sale and you raise the price? huh!

Somehow, someone must have convinced someone else that foothills home prices are on the rise. What else could it be?

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hurry

Listed just 4 days ago, 5862 E Paseo Cimarron is already in contract. List price $440,000 ($162/sf), in Cimarron. (listed by Long Realty)

For homes listed at up to about $600,000 the Tucson Foothills real estate market continues to barrel along.

Here’s why I say that; 
There are 192 homes for sale from $0 to $599,999
and there are 70 in contract,
and 91 sold in the last 3 months, indicating that at the current rate of sales there is a 6 month supply of homes in this price range – a balanced supply.

But the prior 3 month period included the Thanksgiving – Christmas  and New Year holidays – traditionally a very slow time. As opposed to the upcoming 4 or 5 months which, traditionally, is the busiest time for Tucson Foothills home sales. We’ll see.

UPDATE: there were a couple of typos in the data as originally  presented on this post. (# of homes sold showed as 212, rather than 91, which caused the months supply to be miscalculated – apologies for the error)

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spec homes, then and now

Once upon a time they were the darlings of Tucson foothills real estate but, more recently, many spec homes have ended up as huge anchors around the necks of their builders/investors and lenders too.

On the other hand a new crop of specs have come along in just the last year (a mini crop really) that are starkly different, and have been more successfully received, than their predecessors.

It looks like 8 spec homes sold in 2011 from $925,000 to $2,325,000.
Let’s see how they fared,

First the new crop – more modestly sized and appointed and priced accordingly, than the old crop, and with none venturing into the 2, 3 and 4 million $$$ arena. And the $/sf costs, in the low $200’s - at that price, buyers would run, not walk, for a nice new home in the foothills.
And in fact they did.

6520 N CALLE DE LA LLUVIA – first listed @ $989,000 Feb/2011 – sold $925,000 ($218/sf) Dec/2011. Anchors Away!

6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place – first listed @ $1,095,000 March/2011 – sold $950,000 ($199/sf) Dec 2011, no pain and suffering here,

5201 N CIRCULO SOBRIO – first listed @ $1,400,000 Sept/2011 – sold $1,400,000 ($233/sf) Sept/2011, talk about a quick sale.

And now the old crop. You know, the specs that were built on a wish and a prayer for a market that never quite materialized, and ended up selling in yet a very different market that, unfortunately, did materialize. And that continues to rear its ugly head to this day.

2123 E Sentry Ridge Court – first listed @ $2,750,000 Nov/2007 – sold $1,517,250 ($249/sf) Jan/2011. Yes, 3 long years to end up with a million-two less than planned – but worse yet, imagine the 3 year carrying costs for this behemoth.

Likewise with 7828 N Ancient Indian Drive – first listed @$3,295,000 ($447/sf) Jan/2010 – sold $1,660,500 ($223/sf) Mar/2011 – but this one never really had a chance because the party was so over by Jan 2010.  (sold as a foreclosure)

And the bell of the ball - 7454 N Secret Canyon – first listed @ $5,000,000 ($722/sf) Mar/2009 – sold $1,850,000 ($267/sf) May/2011. What’s there to say. (sold as a foreclosure)

Straddling the middle ground - 6101 N Paseo Zaldivar – first listed @ $2,150,000($362/sf) Jan/2011 - sold $1,850,000 ($312/sf) June/2011, snuck in under the wire.

And the best for last - 2304 E Sentry Ridge Court – a very special house- beautifully built, absolutely gorgeous, worth $3.5 - 4 million, but not in this market.
First listed @ $4,950,000 ($639/sf) Jan/2010  – sold Dec/2011 $2,325,000 ($300/sf).  
**Even though it ended up ‘behaving’ just like a spec home, I’m not absolutely sure that it was planned as a spec from the get-go. It is possible that listing it was due to something else entirely, a reversal of fortune, a change of heart, who knows. But somewhere along the way money did become an issue because it sold as a short sale.

see them here > the new crop, the old crop <

Next I’ll pull together the leftovers, the specs still for sale ,

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in a quick turnaround, prices in Pinnacle Ridge are now on the rise

Yesterday I wrote about the measly sale prices of the three homes that sold recently in Pinnacle Ridge - they went for $162/sf, $157/sf and $136/sf – $572,500, $700,000, $605,000. And that’s it, that’s everything sold in there in the last 6 months.

Until today. Another home that was in contract is now reported just sold, but this one topped the charts at $765,000 ($216/sf) – a hefty 33% higher than the next highest $/sf sale price. How did they manage that. And, the big question, how did the appraiser manage to bring the appraisal in at sale price.

6358 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

And not that it matters, because these days lenders look back only 3 months for comparable sales, but for all of 2011, this $765k sale is the 2nd highest priced sale in Pinnacle Ridge
(it was nosed out of 1st place by a $785k sale @ $222/sf) but that was in April.
Ancient history to an appraiser.

(the $765k sale was off a $779k list price, which had been reduced from $850k when it started out in May, 2011)

One thing is for sure, this is a ray of light for the three homes that remain for sale.

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another one bites the dust in Pinnacle Ridge

Originally listed at $750,000, 6376 N Pinnacle Ridge in the Pinnacle Ridge/aka Paloma Canyon subdivision, sold today (as a normal sale) for $572,500 ($162/sf). This is the 3rd sale in there in 6 months.

The other two - 4311 E Pinnacle Ridge Place sold for $1,135,000 in 2006 and for $700,000 ($157/sf), as a short sale, in October. And right up the street, 6325 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive, sold for $1,100,000 in 2006 and for $605,000 ($136/sf), as a REO, also in October.

See them here > sold in Pinnacle Ridge <

There are 2 homes in contract and 3 remain for sale in Pinnacle Ridge.

This may seem pretty bad, and it is, but there was a time a couple of years ago when nothing was selling in Pinnacle Ridge. Why, because sellers were holding out for prices that were
long-gone and buyers weren’t budging. At least now we’re pretty much past that madness.

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the gap between list and sold prices

Yesterday I mentioned that the average list price of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills far exceeds the average sold price of the homes that sell – i.e., avg list is currently $850,350 while the average sold is $530,096 – 37% less.

But with distress sales it’s a very different story. The gap exists, but it’s reversed – in this case the average sold price exceeds the average list price.
See here, there are 36 homes listed as short sales and foreclosures –
with an average list price of $398,421.

And coincidentally, 36 short sale and foreclosure homes sold in the last 3 months –  for an average of $445,019 – almost 12% more

No wonder short sales and foreclosures are selling like hot cakes.

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starting off 2012 with 2003 prices

6451 N Ventana Canyon Drive last sold in 2003 for $1,370,000 and was listed today for $1,395,000. That’s starting off on the right foot,

6451 N Ventana Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(Listed by Long Realty)

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sure prices have come down, but not for my house

First some fun reading from the LA Times - Bridging the great divide between home buyers and sellers. Many owners "have not adjusted their price expectations downward" to keep pace with local declines in property values after the mortgage bust, Engelhardt said, thereby contributing to the sharp divergence in their real estate visions compared with those of buyers”
It’s oddly comforting to hear they’re still having the same struggle as we are in la-la-land

Then a little closer to home the AZ Daily Star weighs in on how drastically home prices have dropped at the lowest end of the market >  1 in 3 homes here sell for under $100K < along with a very candid but not too comforting quote from Marshall Vest – our local star economist – who, after predicting that prices will stop falling in 2012, admits, "Of course that was my forecast last year, the year before that and the year before that."

WELCOME TO 2012!

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a spec home sells

Back in March when 6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place was listed I said, “You’d think that anyone thinking about building specs these days should first have their head examined. But if you can do it for this price, make a decent product, and still make a buck, then go for it”

I have no idea if they made a buck or not but Sutherland Ridge did sell today. It went for $950,000 ($198/sf) off a $999,000 list price, reduced from the $1,095,000 it was listed for in March. I have to wonder though, at $198/sf, can you buy the lot (they paid $245k for it) prep the lot, build this house, finance the whole deal, pay commissions and closing costs and whatnot and still make enough to make it worthwhile?

Or maybe they figured that it was such a good deal at the original list - $1,095,000 - that it would sell at or very close to that, or maybe even over list. I wouldn’t have disagreed.
That seemed possible back then, but that was March and things were looking up in March.
  

6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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a big contract for La Paloma

3208 E Via Palomita is in contract.
First listed for $3,200,000 in December 2008 it quickly dropped to $2,785,000 then $2,495,000, etc. until it settled in last month at the magic number> $1,939,000 ($310/sf) and BINGO!
3208 E Via Palomita Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc)

This is a John Kline built house – with all the attention to top quality construction,
details and finishes that he’s known for. 

So if it’s such a great house what took so long? Well aside from the price - and all the economic/confidence issues bearing down – how about the fact that it’s a 2 story. 
2 story homes are less popular than 1 story homes here in the Foothills, they just are. And I’m sure that was a hurdle.

In any case, if this closes above $1,640,000  it’ll be the biggest sale in La P since July 09.

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Case-Shiller doesn’t cover the Tucson Foothills

In their latest report S&P/Case-Shiller says Home prices down for 6th straight month in the 20 markets they track.
From CNNMoney.com

 

Meanwhile, here in the Tucson foothills home prices are Up one month and Down the next.
But overall, the Down months are wiping out the gains from the Up months with the result that prices are Down - from 6 months ago, from last year, from 2 years ago, from …

And though it’s not over yet, it looks as if we’re going to end on a high note with December sale prices breaking records for this year. And though it’s due to an unusual number of high-end sales closing this month –including that big short sale in PC for $2.325 - that’s how it goes.
Up one month Down the next.

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the perils of overpricing

7808 N Ancient Indian Dr in Pima Canyon sold yesterday for $1,600,000. And it wasn’t a short sale or a REO. That’s the good news.

The not so good news is that the sellers paid $2,650,000 for it in March 05.
But here’s the kicker, just 6 months later they listed it for $3,899,000.
Hard to believe but true. I’d love to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation, you know, the one where someone convinced someone else that the house would fetch more than a million $$’s more than what it just sold for – not more than one person could have come to the table with that bright idea.

net-net, it’s been on the market all this time, and in late May finally got down to $1,990,000 and went to contract in mid July and closed yesterday. So instead of making a quick million they spent 6 long years losing it.

7808 N ANCIENT INDIAN Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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you make your money when you buy

That’s the old saying, and of course it’s true. Overpay when you buy and you don’t have much chance of doing well when you sell. And in this market, forget about it.

And they stepped in that one big-time over at 6420 N Miramist Way.
It sold for $838,000 in May 2004 - when the market was roaring along and going higher every day – OK, that was the market back then.
But then it sold again in June 2010 for $850,000 – that’s after 2+ years into a serious downturn and going nowhere but down – for $850,000, the sellers must have been dancing in the aisles – downturn, what downturn.

But the love affair was short-lived and those buyers listed it 9 months later - in March 2011 -  for $879,000, hoping, I suppose, that an uninformed and carefree spender would come along and do what they did. Didn’t happen. So it was reduced and reduced until it hit $699,000 and went to contract in late September and closed today for $690,000 as a short sale.

6420 N Miramist Way , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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well, at least it sold

nearly 6 years, $3 million in price cuts, 4 listing agents and 4647 E Palais Place sold today for $1,400,000 ($199/sf) off a $2,650,000 list price – as a very short sale.
It looks like a WaMu loan for $2.2

Back in the day it debuted at $4,450,000 ($590/sf) 

 4647 E Palais Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Andy Courtney Properties, Ltd)

+ a not so fun fact, there’ve been just 2 homes for sale in the Summit in the last
2 years and while both did sell, they both sold as short sales.

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who’s cutting prices, who’s selling homes

One reason that homes at the lower end of the market have been selling so well is because their owners continue to cut their price until they do sell. And that’s just not happening with most higher priced homes.

There were 78 price cuts on single family homes in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days,

60 of them on homes priced $0 to $599,000 (that’s 29% of the homes listed in this price range)

13 on homes priced $600,000 to $999,999 (17% of this price range)

5 on homes priced $1,000,000 and up (a measly 6.6% of this range)

And, as we’re all too aware, the million and up market continues to be in the worst shape of all. Is it any wonder.

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