TheTucsonFoothills

taking a fresh look at Zillow’s zestimates

In the past I’ve taken issue with Zillow’s zestimates because I’ve often found them to be wildly inaccurate in zestimating single family home values here in the Tucson Foothills. 
They were either way high or low vs. a home’s actual (and eventual) selling price. 
And then with a straight face they’d cover their bet with a ridiculously broad ‘value range’, e.g., zestimate $740,000 (value range $610,000 to $890,000) Well gosh, give me a dart board and I’ll gladly take my chances. (and don’t miss the caveats, disclosures and ….)

And after deliberately ignoring zillow for some time now, I’ve started checking in with them again. And it looks to me as if they’ve made some real progress and sharpened their game a bit. The zestimates are still hit or miss, but more often it’s closer to a hit than to a miss.
I’ll list some examples in another post soon.

And why did I start checking in with Zillow again. Well at least partly because so-called professional appraisals have become such a total crapshoot – and are so often so far off the mark that they’ve become a real handicap to making a sale. And that’s not to say that we can use Zillow to rebut an appraisal, but just as another opinion – and from what I can see, a more useful opinion than in the past. I must admit.

And of course these wacky appraisals are thanks to the new and improved regulations that now govern who and how appraisers are assigned. Which may result in the appraisal and valuation of the home you’d like to buy being in the hands of an appraiser from Vail or Glendale or Apache Junction, or who knows where  – who has little or no experience in the foothills.
And boy if that’s the case hang on to your hats, because, even with local experience, it’s often tough to do a proper appraisal in the foothills. 

At least when Zillow offers a valuation you’re free to accept it or reject it with no further consequences. But a so-called professional appraisal will make or break your sale.

Here’s some further reading on the appraisal problem >
Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers

and my personal experience with a wacky appraisal,

the problem with appraisals

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

everything has a price

Take 5615 N Wilmot Road, which has been on and off the market since 2007. And as of today is finally reported in the first phase of a short sale contract from a much reduced $675,000 list price. hip-hip

Along the way I wrote about it a few times, most recently here> Having failed to sell while listed for $899,500 in 2004 – when the market was roaring along - 5615 N Wilmot Road was listed again, this time in December 2007, for $1,299,000. This, despite …

5615 N Wilmot Road, Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Rich Realty)

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list prices

I’ve noticed here and there, some of the new listings that have come on in the last few weeks are priced higher now than what they sold for 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 years ago. As if prices have gone up, not down since then. And I don’t mean just a few bucks higher, I’m seeing prices10% and more higher when, in fact, they should be 20% or more lower.

And I wonder what brings this on now. Is it because we’re in the early innings of our in-season and sellers & their agents figure there’s time to test the waters and still have time to drop back down if needed before June rears its head. Or is it because the inventory is low and they figure their chances are better now than they’ve been, so go for it. It’s possible, anything’s possible, it’s not likely, but possible.

But I recently met with a few sellers who wanted to list their houses, and I got to see first hand their thinking on list prices. And with a few exceptions I don’t even list houses anymore. I just prefer to work with buyers. But over the last few months quite a few people called me to talk about listing their house. And at first I just thanked them and declined, explaining that I don’t list anymore. But then I got more calls and I thought, what the heck, I’m not all that busy with buyers, that’s for sure, so maybe I should think about listing again. So I went on a few listing appointments.

And I was very upfront with everyone. I explained that I work mostly with buyers, but would on occasion take a listing. And that I was now considering dipping my toes a little deeper into the listing end of the pool. And after touring the house and chatting we eventually got around to the money part. We looked at comps and talked about the market and what I thought their house should be listed for, and why I thought so, and so on. And the more we talked the chillier it got.

And I found that many of them didn’t need me at all, or any Realtor really, they already knew what they wanted to list it for. And it usually had very little to do with the realities of the market. When push came to shove, though no one quite said so out loud, the attitude was ‘the heck with the comps and the market and all that mumbo-jumbo, this is a great house & I’ve got XX in it and I want what I want and that’s what I’m going to list it for’  Imagine, in this day and age?

And that cured me of the listing bug. And I’ve since resolved to stick to what I like best, working with buyers - except maybe for a past client, a friend, or a special property, that’s priced right -  and I’ll leave the chilly discussions to the listing agents who somehow manage to do it day in day out.

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and yet another contract in Pima Canyon

I realize my reports of one contract after another in PC may be getting very tedious, but it’s Pima Canyon, what can I do, I can’t ignore it. So I’ll at least try to make this one interesting …

7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive – first listed in February 2010 for $1,127,000 and failed to sell - 
is reported in contract, currently listed at $799,900 ($222/sf) – down about 33%.

You may recall that last March they announced a really creative approach to pricing this house. They announced right in the listing that they were going to drop the price $5000 every week until it sells. Is that a nifty idea or what. And, as you can imagine, if buyers weren’t breaking down the doors before, why rush to make an offer now that you stand to save a bundle by just sitting back and waiting. And time went by but no one took the bait. So they scrapped that idea and went back to the more traditional tactic of dropping $50k or so, unannounced in advance.

and PS-  this may very well take the cake for the lowest $$/sf sale in PC in many moons. (that is, not counting a few foreclosures that were ripped apart and needed $250k or more to put them back together)

7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br 70207)

starting off 2012 with 2003 prices

6451 N Ventana Canyon Drive last sold in 2003 for $1,370,000 and was listed today for $1,395,000. That’s starting off on the right foot,

6451 N Ventana Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(Listed by Long Realty)

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what are the chances these days of beating the market

A house in Pinnacle Ridge (aka Paloma Canyon) sold in 2005 for $850,000 ($187/sf).

And then, throwing caution to the wind, it was listed this past March for $949,500 ($214 s/f),
yes the very same house, nice try, but of course it didn’t fly – and now it’s back again, for $877,000 ($197/sf).

Meanwhile, just two homes have sold in PR in the last six months – one for $700,000 ($157/sf), the other for $605,000 ($136/sf) – and during the boom both of them sold for way bigger $$$$ – for $1,135,000 & $1,100,000 respectively.

These days everyone has this information at their fingertips and buyers are not inclined to pay more than the comps suggest or as much or more than a house sold for during the boom  – and if for some reason they are, well, the banks are not handing out $$$ for homes that don’t comp.
We all know that.

And unlike much of the Tucson Foothills, Pinnacle Ridge is pretty easy to comp, because the homes are very similar. They’re all built by the same builder (AF Sterling) and all built within about 4 years of each other, all are on similarly sized lots on very similar (identical really) streets. Yes of course there are a few exceptions and differences here and there, but that’s what they are, exceptions.

Then again, if it’s your house you can ask whatever you want – bloggers, buyers, bankers and Realtors be damned.

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Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers

From The Washington Post
By Kenneth R. Harney, Published: November 18

How do you fight back when an appraiser — often from another city and working for a small fee on behalf of a big bank — wrecks your sale, purchase or refinancing with a low-ball valuation?

It’s a serious problem in markets across the country.
Disagreements over real estate values are nothing new, but agents, builders and sellers say current market conditions, plus recent changes in federal rules that effectively encourage banks to use in-house or affiliated appraisal management companies, are magnifying the problem.

Read all about it > Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers
______________________________________________________________________________

In the real estate world there are few events more difficult, frustrating and intensely emotional than a buyer not able to buy  a house and a seller not able to sell because of a screwball, faulty appraisal.

It happened to me for the first and only time this past summer and, I’m happy to say, I fought back and I won.     I wrote about it here > the problem with appraisals

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As the housing slump drags on, the carrying costs of waiting out the market have become onerous, even for the wealthiest.

A seller who put a home on the market in 2009 hoping that a turnaround was on the horizon may now be realizing that it could take several years or more for the market to rebound. "Eventually, even the people who have unlimited means will throw in the towel at some point," said George Graham, the CEO of Concierge Auctions.

Read all about it > From WSJ.com
High-End Hits the Auction Block
Long associated with desperate sellers and foreclosed homes, auctions are now selling mansions and luxury estates.

or just sit back and watch,

 

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missed by a mile

4085 N Black Rock Drive on Sabino Mountain sold as a new house for $873,763 in 2005 and was listed for $1,500,000 ($444/sf) in Jan 2010. And guess what happened.

It hung around for almost two years and finally sold today for $675,000 ($200/sf)
(and it’s not short or a foreclosure)

I can’t imagine how you jump from $873,763 to $1.5 during the worst market in modern history. But I’m not alone there, because no one else could imagine it either. 

4085 N Black Rock Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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looking for two “well matched” buyers to buy and share a luxury home

Introducing Ownermatch

“Ownermatch provides an innovative formula that cuts the cost of owning a second home or recreational property in half. This is accomplished by facilitating two "well-matched" co-owners, who each provide half the investment capital and half the ongoing ownership costs. They can then each enjoy up to six months "exclusive" use of the property every year according to a pre-determined schedule. Simple, practical and cost-effective. A Win-Win for both parties.”

Read all about it > http://www.ownermatchresorthomes.com/locations/tucson/

It  may be a  Win-Win, as they say, though, with all the complicated personal & money issues involved in such an up close and cozy co-ownership arrangement,
it doesn’t sound the least bit simple and not  at all like fun to me.

And before anyone begins to deal with those sticky issues, now, instead of having to find one buyer for each million$$+ luxury home, two must be found - and yes, the price is half, but you also only get half and you have to check in with your “well matched” co-owner on all decisions. imagine.  How likely is that, two buyers who want half of the same luxury home and who agree on the price and terms and who are willing to share it.  And not just any two buyers, but two  “well matched” buyers, who are able to walk down the aisle together and agree on the  endless decisions that need to be made regarding the big and small details of setting up, owning, maintaining and sharing the house.  Good luck with that!

And this is not a time share– which they may have thought about when dreaming this up - which has many participants and is therefore very impersonal and is more like a permanently reserved hotel room than a cozy and complicated co-ownership arrangement of a large multi-million $$$ home.

Also, Ownermatch may have misconstrued the cause of the poor state of
the high-end market here in the Tucson Foothills.  
It’s not for a lack of high-end buyers, no that’s not it. There are plenty of buyers, it’s just that they’re not willing to pay the prices being asked for many of the high-end homes that are for sale.  So, ironically, the real issue is that there are not enough
well-priced high-end homes to go round.

And the odds of finding two buyers who are both willing to overpay - albeit by only half as much as they would individually - to own half of and share in one overpriced million$$+ home – is, it seems to me, a very unlikely outcome.

But there it is, you decide.

getting it right except for the price

Having another go at it after a year+ recess, 4905 E Mission Hill Drive is back on the market today for $689,000.

Briefly- Mission Hill was purchased in 2005 for $640,000, then nicely renovated and put back on the market less than a year later just as the market was cooling (as a fix-up & flip- remember that craze) for $1,390,000. But no one took the bait and after many price cuts it expired four years later at $699,000.

In 2009 I wrote about it HERE & HERE

And HERE it is as listed today,
(listed by Long Realty)

facing the music

The owners of 6800 N Chaparral Avenue paid $782,500 for it in 2006 and listed it yesterday for $549,000. That’s 30% off, right off the bat. I hope it sells quick and for more money. (no, it’s not a short sale or foreclosure)

6800 N Chaparral Avenue Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

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feeling lucky

@ $400/sf or more, consider this;
There are 21 homes listed for sale in the Foothills at $400/sf or more. And while that may not sound like so so many, also consider this;

So far this year just 1 home listed at $400/sf has sold. And none are in contract.

And last year wasn’t so good for $400/sf listings either, just 2 sold last year.
In the spring/summer of 09 - when we thought the worst of it was over - 6 sold.
But back in the good ole days – 15 sold in 08 (that’s, of course, in just the first 8 months of 08 too), 17 sold in 07 and 27 flew off the shelf in 2006. But those days are long gone. At least for the foreseeable future.

These days, with just 1 sold this year & 21 listed for sale, unless things improve drastically (and that does not appear to be in the cards right now) theoretically, it would take about 189 months to sell all 21 homes. Give or take, that’s 16 years.

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how dumb is this

Have you run across this, 2 story houses that are listed and advertised as 1 story.
Yeah, really, like maybe you’ll walk in and not notice it’s a 2 story.
Or you’ll suddenly realize, come to think of it, I really do want a 2 story. Sure, it happens all the time. And talk about hedging, I saw a house advertised as a 1.5 story. And wouldn’t you know it, the staircase to the 2nd story, it is a 2 story, is the tallest and steepest staircase I’ve ever seen in Tucson. (2 story homes are much less popular here and much harder to sell than 1 story)

So when buyers who are only interested in a 1 story (and most are) walk into a 2 story, what do you think happens. Well, not only are they immediately unhappy and upset about being lied to and having wasted their time schlepping over to a 2 story, but they’re now asking themselves, since the seller and agent have seen fit to lie about the simplest of basic facts, what else they might be trying to hide. And that’s the end of that, all trust is gone, kaput, out the window.  Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Meanwhile they’ve completely ignored those buyers who are looking for a 2 story.

And none of this does much to boost the impression of Realtors® either. Aside from ones personal principles and ethics there are also MLS rules and Realtor® Association regulations that prohibit false advertising. And while the vast majority of Realtors® do care very much and are vigilant about doing the right thing, there are, apparently, a few that don’t.

that oughta do it

In Alta Vista, 6061 N Paseo Zaldivar sold in 05 for $840,000 and was listed in 2010 for $995,000. And guess what, it’s still for sale today and caught my eye because of a price cut – from $875,000 to $874,900.

6061 N Paseo Zaldivar , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizo 478306)

you can ask whatever you want

4411 N Camino Sumo sold for $1,303,575 in December 05. And in December 08, in the midst of the worst financial crisis in fifty years, it was listed for $1,650,000.
And when that failed to attract a buyer, the price was raised to $1,750,000 - 
34% more than it sold for in 05. And oddly enough, that didn’t work either.

On the market ever since, it expired today at $1,295,000.

4411 N Camino Sumo Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

A perfectly nice house, and in Cat 10 too, but jeez.

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and how much for the Brooklyn Bridge

I saw a listing this morning that caught my eye, it claims, “Easiest and most beautiful home in Tucson to purchase!!!  Most private lot in Pima Canyon”

That’s a pretty tall claim, especially since the house has been on the market since 2007.

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not SOLD

7426 N Calle Sin Celo sold for $800,000 in January 08 and was listed four months later for $1,350,000. But no one bought it and it was still for sale, until today, when it was canceled at $695,000. 7426 N Calle Sin Celo Tucson, AZ 85718 (Listed by Casa 1 Realty)

In Cat 10, 3770 E Placita De Piacho was listed for $1,175,000 ($321/sf) in October 2010 and was pulled off the market today, still asking $1,175,000. 3770 E Placita De Piacho Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

820 E Magee Road, in Cobo Catalina Hills, sold for $1,485,000 in August 05 and then, according to the listing, was totally redone and listed in October 08 for $3,495,000 – a 135% increase. And now after numerous price cuts and re-listings it expired today at $1,895,000 ($331/sf). 820 E Magee Road Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

And over in Ventana, 7180 E Ventana Canyon Drive sold for $1,245,000 in March 05 and was re-listed in October 07 for $1,999,900 ($420/sf). No mention of any remodeling or renovation, but it was being sold ‘completely furnished’. 
(personally I question the wisdom of trying to sell a furnished house because A) the lender refuses to lend $$$ on personal property, like furniture. And B) not only does the sale hinge on finding a buyer who likes the house enough to shell out $1.9mil, but now you also have to find one who’s willing to live with your furniture.

 

And apparently they still haven’t found that buyer, because it’s still for sale, now at $1,599,000, and it’s still ‘completely furnished’.
7180 E Ventana Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

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take your pick, ‘lovingly cared for’ or ‘sold as is’

Reading the descriptions of the homes listed for sale could lead you to believe that they are all perfect homes in ideal locations under wonderfully sunny skies where everyone is as happy as can be. And they are, the Best Priced…, the Best Value … with the Best Views …, and The Most Stunning Floor Plan … (yes, I too can exaggerate)

Those descriptions could lead you to believe all those wonderful things being said about those homes, except that most of us have learned to take that stuff with a grain of salt. Or, at the very least, with a wait and see, I’ll be the judge of that, attitude. Because, whether it’s homes or cars or smart phones, it is advertising that you’re seeing. And advertising tends to emphasize the positive and ignore the negative.

But sometimes it’s more than just an amusingly exaggerated description. Because sometimes the description is so far off from reality that not only does it not do the seller any good, it actually does them harm. While also wasting the time of a lot of buyers and their agents. How so. Take the most blatant example, a fixer-upper.

99 times out of 100, people are either in the market for a fixer-upper or they’re not. There are fixer-upper people and then there is everyone else.  And everyone else wouldn’t touch a fixer-upper with a ten foot pole. So if you’re trying to sell a fixer-upper, you want to do everything you can to get the fixer-upper people in to see it. And forget about everyone else, because they’re not interested. So please, do everyone a good turn and advertise your fixer-upper, or whatever it is you’re trying to sell, for what it really is.

And my favorite. Have you ever walked into a home that’s advertised as, let’s say, 3500 sf only to discover that 400 of those sf are in the garage. 
It happens. There’s usually a heat/AC unit rigged into the wall of one of the garage bays, and they’ve put down some carpet and, voila’, called it living space. 
And technically, as long as it’s heated and has walls and a roof, it can be counted as living space. Just so long as you don’t mind having a rollup garage door as your front wall. And even more amusing is when that garage bay is counted as both living space and as one of the garage bays. Yep, the ultimate flex space.

What brought on this rant. Well, a couple of things.
The other day I noticed a listing that really annoyed me. In one place it stated;
”… It is so lovingly cared-for and is … blah blah”

And then just a little further down the page, and with a straight face, it also stated;
”Seller has never resided on the property and no SPDS are available. Home to be sold ''AS IS.” OK, which is it, lovingly cared for, or sold as is?

And then recently, along with clients who weren’t at all interested in a fixer-upper,  we walked into a fixer upper that was described as anything but. (and there were no pictures in the listing, just the glowing description) It was embarrassing and a total waste of everyone’s time.

(Updated from a previous post on this blog)

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the problem with appraisals

I recently represented the buyers in a deal where the appraisal for the house came in 30% less than the agreed-to purchase price.  30%, that’s not chickenfeed.

But after the initial shock, no one panicked. Because it was obvious that it was a seriously flawed appraisal (to put it very politely). The buyers knew it, I knew it and the listing agent and seller also knew it. The only one who didn’t know it was the lender. And if we were going to move forward with this deal, they needed to know it too. But they’re located somewhere in Ohio and, of course, didn’t know diddly about the Tucson Foothills and were therefore completely guided by the alleged sanctity and reliability of the appraisal. So it was obvious that somehow I had to get the appraisal revised or redone or re-somethinged. 

So, with the full support of my buyers, the first thing I did was call the appraisal company and get the manager on the phone. I thought maybe I’d be able to convince him to have a look at the appraisal himself and see if he agreed with me. But after stating my case and not hearing any probing questions or encouraging sounds from the other end of phone, I asked Mr Manager if he agreed with me that the foothills is more difficult to appraise than other areas of Tucson.  

And at least he was honest. He admitted right off the bat that he didn’t know a thing about the foothills. Had never set foot in the foothills and didn’t even know where they were. He’d recently blown into town from Phoenix to open the Tucson branch of some big appraisal conglomerate. But still, he didn’t want to listen to some
smart-ass, know it all Realtor telling him his business either. So he started in with the ‘oh you Realtors are all the same, whenever the appraisal doesn’t come in you blame the appraiser, blah blah blah’

And not wanting to listen to his whining, I pulled my ace in the hole.
I let him know that there were 3 offers on the house – from 3 different buyers, represented by 3 different Realtors - and all 3 were within $5k of each other and 30%  higher than his appraisal. And isn’t that what appraisals are supposed to measure – the market price for a house – the price that a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing to accept, in an arms length transaction. And we had 3 of them. That got his attention for a second but still didn’t make much of a dent - this guy was thick. And he just continued his defensive whining.

So I chucked that and moved to plan B. I wrote and emailed a 3 page letter to the lender pointing out in no uncertain terms why the appraisal was grossly off the mark and apparently done by someone who had no business doing appraisals in the foothills. And I also sent them the two other offers and invited them to call and speak with the other two agents to verify that they really did have ready, willing and able buyers for the house. And I also called the lender and pleaded with them and insisted that the buyers and sellers should not have to suffer - and not be able to buy and sell the house - because of the gross incompetence of some appraiser.

And somebody up there agreed with me, because the lender ordered a new appraisal (from a different appraiser) and it came in within a few points of the agreed-to purchase price, and we moved forward and closed escrow. And other than the thrill of having won it for my clients, and for everyone involved, it was also very gratifying to find a banker who cared enough to hear me out and to stick their neck out and see it through. All’s well that ends well.

That’s a true story.

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you can ask whatever you want

In Cat 10, 3770 E Placita De Piacho was listed last October at $1,175,000 ($321/sf) & it expired yesterday at $1,175,000 ($321/sf).

3770 E Placita De Piacho Tucson, AZ 85718
(was listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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riding the market to the bottom

4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas has been in contract since April 14th off a much reduced $725k list price. And today it was marked as Pending, which indicates the inspection contingencies have been removed and it’s a pretty sure bet to close escrow soon. Hallelujah!

It’s been a long time coming. It was first listed in February 2008 for $1,150,000 and held out at a million or more until (it was too late) Feb 2009. Then it was reduced in dribs and drabs until (it was really too late). And then finally (reality dawned) it was re-listed on April 1st for $725k – Hoorah - and 2 weeks later it was in contract.

And the thing is Bellas Catalinas is just not a $1,150,000 community. Not based on the sales numbers anyway. And what else is there. From Jan 1 2006 thru today the average sale price in Bellas Catalinas is $737,564 with just one sale over a million, and all the rest from $890k down to $542,900. And the one over a million was a pretty fantastic, head and shoulder above the rest, custom home that someone just had to have.

4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas Tucson, AZ 85718
(now listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

are prices rising?

you might think so if you were guided by the pricing over at 4549 N Hacienda Del Sol

First listed in November 09 for $825,000 and still unsold after many moons and many price cuts, the other day they raised it from $499k to $549k?
4549 N Hacienda Del Sol
(listed by RE/MAX Catalina Foothills Realty)

what goes up …

6261 E Placita Del Nido sold for $375,000 in 1996, for $495,000 in 2002 and for $824,900 in 2006

Then in November 07 they listed it for $879,900 and it expired unsold in May 08 at $799,900. Now it’s back again today, the 1st day of May, hoping to get $600,000

6261 E Placita Del Nido Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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the most expensive house on the block

5920 N Via Serena sold today, that’s in Cimarron. And that’s the good news.
The other news is the sellers paid $1,300,000 for it in 2004 – to this day the highest sale ever in Cimarron. And then, despite all the evidence to the contrary, they listed it in June 2010 for $1,500,000. Jeez!

So, not unexpectedly, it didn’t sell for anywhere near that. It went for $950,000, which is now, small consolation, the new post-boom high for Cimarron.

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more to choose from or more competition

It depends on which side of the fence you’re on, but four optimistic home owners have listed their homes for sale in Pinnacle Ridge (aka Paloma Canyon) in just the last few weeks - bringing the total for sale in there to 6 – for an average/median of $775,783/$767,950

Yet just 3 have sold in the last six months – with the last sale on November 1st -
for an average/median of $666,667/$610,000. And there’s nothing in contract.
So who knows.

And if you’re not familiar with it, Pinnacle Ridge is a newer (built since 2000) gated community located west of swan off Skyline Drive. It is quite popular with families and others and was developed and built by AF Sterling.

6 for sale

3 sold

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what’s selling

There are 82 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills

With 82 in contract out of 484 for sale that’s 17% of the number of homes for sale are currently in contract.

here’s how it looks by price range;

at $0 to $599,000 there are 268 homes for sale and 59 - or 22% – in contract

at $600k to $999 there are 124 homes for sale and 15 – or 12% – in contract

at $1,000,000 & up there are 92 homes for sale and 8 – or 8.7% – in contract

at an average/median & avg $/sf of- $541,340/$444,500/$174/sf

I’ll use this as the starting benchmark for the year when looking at the homes in contract in the months ahead.

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when all else fails

Go for it, make a reverse offer,

A reverse offer goes in the opposite direction: from seller to buyer. In some cases, a seller whose home has been on the market for ages with lots of viewers, but no offers, may enlist their agent to go back and approach several or even all of the buyers who have come to see the property, and make an offer to the buyer. In other scenarios, the seller's agent extends an offer to a particular buyer who has come to see the property multiple times and seems very interested, but has been hesitant to make an offer.

I saw this on Trulia >

3 Best Practices for Making Reverse Offers

it’s your last chance, make the best of it

this came in an email – OWNER MUST SELL – BRING ALL OFFERS

I see so many home owners who hang on until the very end and don’t let on that they must sell. At least that’s the impression you get from their listing agents -everything’s honkey dory. But it’s not, they’re barely hanging on by their fingernails but everyone’s pretending and making nice. So instead of admitting it, they go down quietly and end up falling into the slippery hands of mr. lender. And that’s a mistake, they’re missing an opportunity, very possibly their last opportunity.

OWNER MUST SELL – BRING ALL OFFERS  is very compelling
it’s blood in the water and, like it or not, that brings in buyers

And I’m sure a lot of it is a matter of pride, but I’d also bet that many of those who kept that stiff upper lip til the very end, might do it differently if they had another chance. And having to admit that you have to sell your house is not the disgrace that it once might have been. Let’s face it, everyone knows someone who’s done it or is doin’ it.

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Beware buying a home from a divorcing couple

From CNNMoney.com

Marriage break-ups can be tense. And when divorcing couples sell their homes, it's buyer, agent and everyone else beware.

There are about one million divorces a year in the United States and in most cases, there's a home that needs to be sold. That can mean great bargains, because couples divorcing -- like those in foreclosure -- are often among the most motivated of sellers, willing to accept offers below market value.

Still, house hunters may well pay the price in terms of aggravation and time when working with these sellers.

Buyers must wade through the venom generated by the divorce. Often, one spouse is anxious to sell while the other tries to sabotage the deal -- either out of spite or an unwillingness to end the marriage.

Read all about it > Beware buying a home from a divorcing couple

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I don’t recall ever representing buyers who were about to buy from a divorcing couple, but I have represented sellers who were about to enter into a contract to sell to a soon-to-be-divorced husband or wife who was in the midst of a divorce. In those cases I advised my seller clients to stipulate that additional earnest money be put in escrow after the inspection period, and that it be non-refundable. Just in case things didn’t go as planned.

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today, 12/7/2010

Patience is a virtue - 4341 E Coronado Drive was listed in 07 for $985,000 and then  for $895,000 in 08. But it didn’t sell. Cutting to the chase it was listed today for $625,000. So two years and about $300 thou less, aren’t you glad you waited. (listed by Long Realty)

Along the same vein 2304 E Sentry Ridge Court in PC took a big cut today – going  from $4,950,000, where it’s been since it was listed in January, to $4,250,000. (listed by Long Realty)

There were a bunch of other teeny price cuts, not worth mentioning.

In Alta Vista 6700 N Avenida De Las Palazas found a buyer. It was listed in February for $1,195,000 and pretty much held the line, only dropping to $1,099,000 ($296/sf). (listed by Long Realty)

And 5151 E Mission Hill Drive in Skyline CC didn’t last too long. Listed in September for $775 it went to contract today listed at $700k. (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential)

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the easy way or the hard way, take your pick

6326 N Ventana View Place sold in 2004 for $630,000 and was listed in 2007 for $1,195,000. Makes sense, double your money in three years, and in a declining market too. But the market didn’t buy it and it sat growing old and tired until this August when it sold for exactly what it sold for in 2004, $630,000 ($218/sf)

Then in late October the house right down the street, at 6164 N Ventana View Place, was listed. And not wanting to go through the same agonizing and useless ordeal as their neighbor – that’s just a guess – they listed it for $599,900. And it went to contract in no time and closed escrow today for $575,000 ($258/sf)

see them here> 2 sold at the Ridge at Ventana Canyon

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of course you can ask whatever you want

In 2006 4912 N Avenida de Castilla was listed for $1,395,000 and did not sell

In 2008 it was listed for $1,198,000 and again did not sell

In 2009 they knocked a thousand off and listed it at $1,197,000, but still it didn’t sell

And 3 strikes you’re out, so by 2010 it was mr. lenders turn, and he listed it for $627,0000 and it went to contract in 8 days. (listed by Tucson Real Estate Resource)

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fear of buying

House hunters are too scared to buy despite low prices

thanks to CNNMoney.com

You betcha. This article hits home, but it’s not a revelation. In one way or another, the readers and commenters on this blog, and me, have been talking about this for a long time now.  If they hope to sell, sellers have to get real and do everything they can to entice buyers to come to the table. That’s right, entice them. How, with a great product at a can’t-pass-it-up price. Nothing less will do.  

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round and round she goes …

Listed about a year ago for $1,249,000, then $1,199,000 > $1,080,000 > $999,999 > $975,000 > $950,000 > $899,000 > $875,000 > $850,000 and now $799,900.
Ask yourself, why would buyers take your price seriously when, obviously, you don’t.

And really, does it make a bit of difference whether your house is listed at $999,999 or at $975,000 or even at $950,000. What a waste, making these useless little cuts that, not only could anyone care less about but, as a seller, I think you’re perceived as out of touch. To put it nicely.

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prices are definitely not going up

Up in Sin Vacas 2611 E Calle Sin Desengano  dropped another $30 thou today.
Now at $739,000, a long way from the $1,150,000 pipe dream price it started at in April of 09. (Listed by Long Realty)

And a nice price cut for 5535 N Calle La Cima - from $990,000 to $900,000.
La Cima started in late August at $1,050,000 but, also worth noting, two years ago the current owners picked it up as a short sale for $783,500. That’s after it had been listed as high as $1,500,000 and went nowhere. (Listed by Long Realty)

And the bargain of the week, 5905 N Camino Escalante, listed on October 12th - 
I can’t believe it’s still for sale - but it is. It’s a foreclosure and it appears that mr. lender wants it off his books pronto. They just dropped it from $950,000, which was a screaming deal, to $830,000, which is grand theft - that is, if this authentic adobe style is your thing. $830,000 puts this beautifully built, 2007 adobe home at $173/sf.
 (listed by Win 3 Realty)

For more on this house read> these people want to sell (Jan 2010), its back, and its cheaper than ever (June 2010) and,  the real deal (October 2010)

See all three > reduced, reduced, reduced

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if you’ve got skin in the game

you might me interested to know that there hasn’t been a contract on a million dollar+ home in the Foothills since November 1st,

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you’ve got to wonder

In 2005, 5231 N Foothills Drive was listed for $450,000 as a fixer-upper -
Cat #7 fixer upper sold as-is'' - and it went to contract in 5 days and sold for list price.

And six months later, in 2006, it was again listed for sale, this time for $750,000 – HOLY COW $750,000. And this time it was described as - Beautiful foothills home on foothills drive! Remodeled with care. New kitchen, baths, doors, plumbing, electrical, etc.  But oddly enough, there was not a single picture in the listing of the carefully remodeled kitchen, baths or doors. hmmm, I wonder why.

In any case it didn’t sell. And it was off the market for 3 years until it was
re-re-listed in late 2009, this time for $350,000 as a short sale. Yes, 3-5-0, down from 7-5-0. Go figure. And yet again it was described as - Nice remodeled house on large lot with panoramic views of Tucson's west side and the Tucson Mtns. This home has been remodeled tastefully. But still there were no pictures of all the tastefully remodeled stuff. Not a one. And here’s where I really get confused. In the agent remarks it said – ‘this home needs a CASH buyer as it is unfinished and unfinancable’. aha, but wait a minute, I thought it was tastefully remodeled, blah blah blah. And again it didn’t sell.

5321 N Foothills Drive was re-re-re-listed again this past July, this time for $334,650 as a foreclosure, and it sold today for $331,000 - Sold ‘AS-IS’, NO WARRANTIES, NO CLUE, NO SPDS.

The End.

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they missed the boat

Purchased in 2003 for $535,000 the new owners of 4275 E La Paloma Drive did a very high quality top to bottom renovation - everything new and all of it very well done. 
It went from this

to this

and this

to this

all through the house

And then in July 07 they put it on the market for $1,200,000. A MILLION TWO

Well it was a great renovation, but it didn’t turn it into a million two house.
So when no one went for it they reduced it and reduced it, chasing the falling market, meanwhile it got about as stale as a listing can get. I showed it two or three times last year, after it had already been on for two years, and by then there were few buyers around and the few that were weren’t interested in it at $985,000.

The owners finally threw in the towel this September and listed it for $789,000.
That did it. It went to contract 2 days later, but fell out and went to contract again a week after that. And it sold yesterday for $720,000. (Listed by Long Realty)
When it was listed in September I’d mentioned it here> a super-duper deal

4275 E La Paloma Tucson, AZ 85718

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one more reason why buyers ignore list prices

4023 N Ocotillo Canyon was a range-priced listing - Seller will accept or counter offers between 590K-630K …

yet it sold today for $570,000

For more on the reality of range pricing, see> does range pricing work <

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high hopes

4420 N Alvernon Way was listed on September 14th 2008 - imagine, listing on 9/14/08 - for $725,000 and sold today for $299,000. (listed by Long Realty)

Their poor timing aside, being that off target, is it any wonder that buyers make
those much maligned low ball offers

4420 N Alvernon Way , Tucson, AZ 85718

And not quite in the same league, but not inspiring much confidence either,
3436 E Placita De La Jolla Del Sol – listed this past April at $800,000,  sold today for $610,000. (listed by Long Realty)

**both of them were reduced, and reduced again,  prior to going to contract and selling**

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today, November 1st

6340 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718, on the market since Feb 09 when it started at $839,900, sold today for $610,000 ($196/sf) off a much reduced $620,000 list.   But they paid $430,191 in 01, so they did just fine. The problem was they expected way more from the market than the market was willing to give. (listed by Long Realty)

And 6100 N Camino Arturo , Tucson, AZ 85718, in Shadow Hills, which last sold in 05 for $830,000 and, in a token gesture to the real estate bust, was listed for $825,000 in 09, sold today for $600,000 ($141/sf) (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br)

5535 N Calle La Cima , Tucson, AZ 85718, which sold for $783,500 in 08 as a short sale, and was listed for $1,050,000 two months ago, was reduced to $990,000 ($217/sf) (listed by Long Realty)

And A CONTRACT in Alta Vista. 6480 N Via Del Emigrado Tucson, AZ 85750, listed just 3 months ago went to contract today at $1,195,000 list ($329/sf)
Emigrado last sold in September 08 for $1,275,000. (listed by Long Realty)

And in Ventana Canyon Estates, 6450 N Desert Wind Circle  is new on the market for $969,000 ($257/sf). Desert Wind last sold in 06 for $1,122,500. (listed by Long Realty)

It’s by no means across the board, but it is encouraging to see that more and more sellers are facing the market for what it is and putting aside, at least to some degree, what they paid for their house or what they have in it.

Earlier today I mentioned 2530 E Calle Sin Pecado, sold for $839,000 in 06 and listed today for $569,000. And the truth is, those who refuse to face the market for what it is, and list accordingly, are going nowhere and just delaying the pain.

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strange visitors from another planet

Here we are still in October and already the talk has turned to the growing number of cars on our streets with out-of-state plates. And how restaurants and shops are getting busier by the day. A sure sign of snow birds coming to roost for the winter season.

And, of course, in the hallowed halls of real estate everyone is revving up for the arrival of our winter visitors. The hope, or expectation, is that their arrival will bring a surge of home buying here in the foothills that will pull us out of our doldrums.

So you’ll see more advertising for homes and more open houses and, for sure, there will be a slew of new listings coming to market to meet the hoped-for demand. 

Just the other day I had a conversation with some clients about how the attitude of sellers and their listing agents will change once January rolls around. January is opening day for the winter season and, with its arrival, sellers and their agents get all puffed-up and confident. They become more confident of getting a good offer and, in turn, become less flexible about what they’re willing to accept. And because there are more buyers on the streets, it stands to reason that they would. Because for many years that’s how it worked.

Come January, snow birds would arrive and home sales in the foothills would take off like a shot. And that seasonal rhythm has become ingrained and second nature.

But our winter visitors, whether they’re from Chicago, Des Moines or Kansas City, are not from another planet. And they are not going to arrive with pockets full of cash and a care-free, free spending attitude. They are not.

They are going to be as careful and concerned and tight fisted, 
and as much on the lookout for a bargain, as everyone else has been. So rather than getting all puffed up and confident, the best thing sellers and their agents could do, that is if they wish to take advantage of this fleeting opportunity, is to get their prices down to where buyers see their homes as an opportunity that is just too good to pass up. One that may not come their way again. 

Otherwise, those winter visitors are going to go home to Des Moines with nothing more than some cactus jelly and frozen tamales and maybe think about having another look at the foothills in 2012.

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open houses

On a beautiful Sunday like this in October you’d expect to see dozens of high-end homes having an open house.

But searching the Tucson MLS and the Long Realty site, there are just 5 homes listed at $800,000 & up scheduled for an open house today. That’s it, 5 homes, and three of them are in Pima Canyon. And those three are from the same agent, Susanne Grogan. So Susanne’s going to have her hands full today, but what the heck is everyone else doing.  

On the other hand, at $0 to $799,999 there are 26 open houses scheduled today.

So why so few at the high-end??

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don’t be fooled, things aren’t always what they seem

Take this for instance. It’s a house with an upstairs and a downstairs that’s been listed for about a year as a 2 story house. 

But now - and who knows why, but I’ll take a wild guess, maybe because it hasn’t sold as a 2 story - they want to give it a shot as a
1 story. So, Presto!, through some real estate magic, wizardry or witchcraft, it has been transformed from a 2 story house into a
1 story house. Hey, anything’s possible.

If you’re out there looking, here’s what to look for; – it will be a house with an upstairs and a downstairs, and a stairway connecting those two levels. Got that.
OK, so when you come across that upstairs/downstairs thing, right away you’re gonna be thinking- 2 story.  But don’t, don’t be fooled and start jumping to conclusions. Look at the listing. If the listing says 1 story, then it’s a 1 story. Happy hunting.

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under contract in 3 days

Priced right, and we’re seeing more and more of it lately, it can happen.

It just happened to 7144 N Lemmon Rock Circle. Listed on 9/14 it went to contract on 9/17 and is today reported as Pending.
So inspection issues are presumably over and done with, and it’s sailing toward the coast of COE. Lemon Rock was listed for
$719,000 ($246/sf).

And of course if you’re a buyer you need to be able to recognize a good house at a good price when one comes along. And be ready to move on it. Because if you don’t, someone else will.

7144 N Lemmon Rock Circle
(Listed By Long Realty)

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slam-bam

price it right, sell it fast and move on, even in today’s market.

5327 N Ventana Overlook Place – was listed for $850,000 on 8/6 -went to contract on 8/13 and closed escrow today at $825,000.

5327 N Ventana Overlook Place Tucson, AZ 85750

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in Shadow Hills

After just 40 days on the market, 6100 N Camino Arturo sold for $830,000 in December 05.

And despite it being a whole new ball game it was listed for $825,000 in September 09. So nothing happened and eventually it got down to $650,000 and went to contract today.
(Listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br 70202)

Also in Shadow Hills, 1781 E Placita Padre Isidoro, now listed for $699,000, also went to contract today. But I had buyers for this house months ago - when it was listed for $799,000.
But we were only interested in it at something less than $699,000. And, back then, the sellers wouldn’t hear of it.
(Listed by Long Realty)

In Shadow Hills

gone in a flash

Word is 3860 E SUMO NOVENO in Cat 10, listed last Thursday at $1,195,000 ($197/sf), had three offers and went to contract over the weekend for more than list price.

Sumo Noveno last sold in 2004 for $1,215,000. Some time after that it was extensively renovated – all new floors, kitchen, 5 new baths, new mechanicals & more. Plus all new landscaping – they ripped out the old and put in the new, by Plants of Distinction, the la-di-da-est of la-di-da landscapers in town. All to the tune of well over $1,200,000.

And that’s why, when it was listed for $1,195,000, it went in a flash.
And it’s not a short sale or a foreclosure. It’s a barely lived in, totally renovated, cat 10 house on a big, private city view lot.  
I previewed it a couple of weeks ago before it hit the market and showed it last Friday and was planning to show it again today but, darn, it’s gone.

That is one of the homes I was referring to in last weeks post,
sellers capitulate – when I said, ‘These homes will sell and they’ll sell a lot quicker and for a lot closer to list price than what we’ve been seeing for the last few years’

see it here> 3860 E SUMO NOVENO Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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in Skyline Country Club

5441 E Gleneagles Drive left the market in July at $1,495,000 and is back today at $1,297,000 ($232/sf).

The listing says; Outstanding remodeled Southwestern contemporary in prestigious, gated Skyline CC Est. All on one level w/no steps, main house w/appox 4700 sq ft & guest house, w/approx 800 sqft …

see it here > 5441 E Gleneagles Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

At the moment there are 12 homes for sale in Skyline, priced $399,900 to $3,450,000 – Average list $1,164,392/Median $839,950
vs 8 sold so far this year - $440,000 to $1,395,000.
Average sold  $885,000/Median $850,000.

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