TheTucsonFoothills

the envelope, please

2011
627 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills for an average/median of
$477,760/$387,500 @ $160/sf.

vs.

2010,
586 sold for an average/median of $501,499/$408,750 @ $170/sf

vs.

2009
532 sold for an average/median of $535,242/$432,500 @ $183/sf

vs.

2008
530 sold for an average/median of $612,257/$515,000 @ $ $212/sf

vs.

2007
621 sold for an average/median of $676,151/$540,000 @ $236/sf

Sales in 2011 were up about 6% & prices down about 6%  vs. 2010.
And with 627 sold, sales are back to where they were in 2007 – but at prices that are back to where they were in 03 – 04.  Also, notice that the biggest price drops were from 07 to 08 and 08 to 09. Since then the decline has slowed dramatically.

Heading into 2012 there are (just) 342 single family homes for sale in the Foothills – not quite
7 months inventory based on 2011 sales - but they’re listed at an average/median of
$850,350/$549,000 @ $215/sf – which is way higher than recent sold prices -  ie, December $530,096/$390,000 @ $154/sf.

And much of that imbalance is due to the many high-end listings that linger on the market at list prices that haven’t been achieved in years, if ever, in the Tucson Foothills.
So I wonder, will this be a year of setting record high home prices in the Foothills, or will it be a year when ultra-high-priced homes continue to succumb to the forces of the market as we know it.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

have you heard, Canadians are on a Sun Belt shopping spree

House Bargains, Greenback's Woes Draw Northern Buyers Into Sun Belt Markets

From WSJ.com
Canadians Warm to Phoenix

Phoenix and other warm-weather cities that have seen real-estate prices crater are newly popular among Canadians looking for second homes or investment properties, brokers and buyers say.

They are lured by the weak U.S. dollar, historically low interest rates and rock-bottom property prices, dragged down by high unemployment and a wave of foreclosures. For the two years that ended in March, Canadians made up the largest percentage of foreigners buying homes in the U.S.—23%—up from 11% in 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors. Arizona and Florida are the focus of their interest, according to the Realtors' group.

Read all about it, Canadians Warm to Phoenix

If Canadians are buying in Phoenix I’m sure they’re in Tucson as well. But I’ve yet to run across any of them.

thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

the latest foreclosure action

from Realtytrac, the foreclosure rate based on new filings during the month of August and expressed as a ratio of the housing market in each area;

USA – 1 in 570 homes
(that’s 1 foreclosure filing in August for every 570 homes)

AZ – 1 in 248

Pima County  - 1 in 349

Tucson, AZ – 1 in 369

Tucson Foothills (85718) – 1 in 964
(85750) – 1 in 825

the Northeast (85749) – 1 in 665

the Northwest
(85741) – 1 in 286
(85742) – 1 in 385
(85743) – 1 in 239
(85704) – 1 in 956
(85739) – 1 in 369
(85755) – no data, darn it

Marana, AZ – 1 in 181

and From CNNMoney.com
Foreclosures rise in August

The increase in default notices may signal that lenders are starting to finally push through foreclosure paperwork that was previously delayed by the "robo-signing" controversy last fall, said RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio.

"It also foreshadows more bank repossessions in the coming months as these new foreclosures make their way through the process," he said in a release.

thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

is there an echo in here

It’s come to my attention that another real estate agent in the foothills, actually an agent at Long Realty no less, who has started blogging, is taking the topics that I blog about, re-wording them and presenting them as her own. How cheesy and puny is that.

Of course it’s also plagiarism > http://www.plagiarism.org/index.html
to "plagiarize" means

• to steal and pass off (the ideas or words of another) as one's own
• to use (another's production) without crediting the source
• to commit literary theft
• to present as new and original an idea or product derived from an existing source.

In other words, plagiarism is an act of fraud. It involves both stealing someone else's work and lying about it afterward.

you know who you are, and if you keep it up everyone else will too

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

the changing face of Camino Escuela

Built in 2006 as a spec home, 4907 N Camino Escuela sold for $1,371,150 in 06, then for $1,250,000 in 2008 and it was listed yesterday for $1,149,000.

That’s it under construction with the new black roof,

The street, Camino Escuela, is home to some of the oldest estates, some of them Joesler estates, in the foothills. And many of them are, or were, on larger tracts of land-  5, 10 and more acres. Cmo Escuela is also one of the few remaining dirt roads in the Foothills. The long time residents like it that way, original old foothills style, and it keeps the looky lous away.

And even though this home is on more than an acre, it was built to be pretty cozy with its three neighbors, going so far as sharing a common driveway.  
And had the real estate market not crapped out I’m sure that more homes would have been built up along Escuela.

4907 N Camino Escuela Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

with all the homes for sale in the Foothills, there’s plenty to choose from

I posted this piece in March and again in August of 2009. At that time, there were 593 homes for sale in March and 491 in August.  And today, with inventory down to 411 homes for sale, and more buyers in the market - it’s more relevant now than ever. So with the figures updated to reflect current inventory, here it is again.  
__________________________________________________________

Yes, sure, of course there are plenty of homes to choose from, are you kidding. With 593 491 411 single family homes for sale in the Foothills, we can’t miss.

Let's look at a hypothetical/typical buyer looking for a home in the Foothills with a price range of $800,000 to $950,000.

-at $800,000 to $950,000 there are 45 39, no, in May 2011 there are just  26 homes for sale, but that’s still more than plenty, right
-yes of course, you want 4 bedrooms & 3 baths - 37 28, that’s 20 homes
-3000 to 4000 sq ft - no prob, 24 19, lucky 13 for sale
-oh, you'd like about an acre, let's say .80 or more - 16 14, 7  gorgeous homes
-and in District 16  - OK, 10 8, 6 homes to choose from, Perfect!
-and you'd like to be in 85718 zip - down to 6, no, in May 2011 we’re down to 4
-single story, yes of course- that's 4, 6, oops - still 4 really great homes to choose from
-and a pool, but of course - OK let's go, with 4 homes to choose from we should be able to wrap this up in no time.
_________________________________________________________________

The point is after putting in some very basic criteria there are 4 homes to choose from  **link will expire on 6/22/2011** And we didn't even get into the style or the age of the home, whether it was in a gated or non-gated area, city or mountain views, and other preferences.

It happens every time. Once you start breaking down all the homes for sale in the Foothills, which run the gamut from under $200k to over $6 mil, you end up with too few, not too many, to choose from. Especially now, with inventory d-o-w-n.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

checking in with Zillow

it’s that time again, time to have another look at Zillow’s zestimates vs. real world prices – the last time I looked was last August.  (it’s been awhile, (and things are slow) so let’s check in with Zillow) And in that time Zillow may have gotten better at this zestimate thing. So let’s see.

I used the following simple criteria in selecting the homes to use for comparison;
-single family homes in the North area (the foothills) of Tucson, sold for $400,000 or more in the last 30 days. Period, no further criteria, filtering or preferences.
And just to be sure there was no cheating or preferential treatment, rest assured,
I was blindfolded during the entire process.  33 homes met the criteria and starting with home # 1 I selected every other home for inclusion in the comparison – so a total of 17 homes. That seemed like plenty.

And to be crystal clear, here is Zillow’s explanation of their Zestimate and Value Range;  A Zestimate home valuation is Zillow's estimated market value. It is not an appraisal. Use it as a starting point to determine a home's value. Learn more
The Value Range is the high and low estimate market value for which Zillow values a home. The more information, the smaller the range, and the more accurate the Zestimate. See data coverage and accuracy table

Now, ta-da, the results;

Address	SOLD for	Zestimate	Value Range
4350 N Camino Ferreo Tucson, AZ 85750	$400,000	$340,000	$279K – $374K
5921 N Placita Tecolote Tucson, AZ 85718	$410,000	$414,000	$348K – $472K
7638 E CMO AMISTOSO Tucson, AZ 85750	$420,000	$394,500	$335K – $454K
5560 N Via Velazquez Tucson, AZ 85750	$425,000	$459,000	$386K – $519K
5288 N Sunset Shadows Place Tucson, AZ 85750	$445,000	$381,000	$312K – $423K
5771 N Camino De La Sombra Tucson, AZ 85718	$510,000	$504,000	$408K – $580K
4054 N Boulder Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85750	$535,000	$440,500	$379K – $515K
6498 E Paseo Otono Tucson, AZ 85750	$540,000	$502,500	$412K – $568K
6269 N Paseo Valdear Tucson, AZ 85750	$555,000	$597,500	$490K – $687K
5151 E Mission Hill Drive Tucson, AZ 85718	$600,000	None	None
6334 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718	$715,000	None	None
6079 E Red Cardinal Tucson, AZ 85750	$715,000	$655,000	$531K – $727K
4625 N Rocky Crest Place Tucson, AZ 85750	$872,500	$668,500	$541K – $749K
7827 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718	$1,200,000	None	None
5920 N Via Serena Tucson, AZ 85750	$950,000	$884,000	$716K – $972K
3271 E CAMINO JUAN PAISANO Tucson, AZ 85718	$1,640,000	$1,146,500	$871K – $1.26M
3252 E Camino Boscaje Escondido Tucson, AZ 85718	$1,750,000	$1,106,500	$797K – $1.31M

Like it or not it’s still hit or miss with zestimates - some nice hits, but some very big misses too. And in the past I only looked at homes in the $750 and up range. And that may not have been completely fair, because it’s obvious that Zillow is much more on their game at the lower end where, generally, the homes are more alike, even cookie cutter, and getting it right is about as tricky as hitting the broad side of a barn, than they are at the higher end where everything doesn’t stack up quite so neatly.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

a lull in the action

nothing much to report – the Tucson Foothills real estate market appears to be taking a break. So I’m taking one too

the Tucson real estate market is not one market

This afternoon a reader of this blog was kind enough to send me link to an article from the Huffington Post that pegged Tucson, AZ, along with 13 other cities, to be one of the worst performing housing markets for 2011. Who knows, maybe it will be.

But the article offered the following explanation for why these markets would likely be the worst performers in 2011;
Property prices could fall back to crash levels in some cities.

Despite signs of recovery, house prices are expected to fall by as much as 13 percent in some areas, thanks to a combination of high unemployment, and the large number of bank-owned homes, which often sell at much lower prices. (my emphasis)

I can’t speak to the issue of unemployment. I just don’t know and don’t have access to dependable data. But for the other half of their equation, distress sales - bank-owned homes & short sales – it’s worth having a look at the actual numbers.

Tucson is a large and diverse market. And viewed by its generally recognized areas – Northeast, Northwest, Extended Northwest, South, West, East and North – the percentage of homes that are for sale as distress sales –short sales & foreclosures – varies greatly. For single family homes for sale thru the Tucson Association of Realtors here are the actual numbers;

Northeast – 308 total homes for sale – 46, or 15% are distress sales

Northwest - 1,523 total homes for sale – 419, or 27.5% are distress sales

Extended Northwest – 39 total homes for sale – 11, or 28% are distress sales

South – 375 total homes for sale – 244, or 65% are distress sales

West – 274 total homes for sale – 100, or 36.5% are distress sales

East – 349 total homes for sale – 147,or 42% are distress sales

North(the foothills) – 483 total homes for sale – 42, or 8.7% are distress sales

Now does that look like one nice tidy uniform market to you?

So despite the fact that this information is coming from such august sources as The Huffington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many others who report on the Tucson market, beware, because they never, ever differentiate between the different markets within Tucson. They just glump them all together.
As if the Bronx, Park Slope in Brooklyn and Bed Stuy, Flushing Queens and Forest Hills, Hell’s kitchen (now gentrified to Clinton) and the upper east side of Manhattan were all one market. Misleading and absurd.

Read all about it if you must, but, please, then take the time to understand what’s really happening in the particular area of Tucson that interests you;
Worst Housing Markets for 2011: Clear Capital Markets

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

The Wall Street Journal says,

Buyers in markets around the U.S. are snapping up homes in all-cash deals, betting that prices are at or near bottom and breathing life into some of the nation's most battered housing markets. …

‘snapping up homes in all cash deals’, and get this,
WSJ's Mitra Kalita reports more and more homebuyers are selling investments to pay cash for real estate, sensing a bottom in the housing market. wait a minute, wasn’t it just yesterday that the bottom was nowhere in sight

Read all about it> Cash Buyers Lift Housing
ironically sub titled, Bargain Hunting Boosts Prices in Depressed Cities

Sounds great. But it’s not happening here. Not yet anyway. But I have observed that foothills real estate usually lags both the ups and downs of other larger markets by 3 to 6 months or more. So maybe this cash buying binge is headed our way.
I hope so, but we’ll see.

On the other hand, it is a no-brainer that the high-end market in the foothills, where most of the cash deals get made, still has further to fall. Yes there are deals out there, and some awfully good ones now and then. But there are still many
high-end homes for sale that are living in the past, and a long gone past at that. 
And that, along with high inventory, is a key factor in why the recovery of the
high-end market is barely limping along.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

what happened over the weekend in Tucson Foothills real estate

Since Friday afternoon 10 new listings have graced our mls ($189,900 to $999,000), 
12 homes (from $197,000 to $1,899,900) had price reductions, 2 homes sold ($175,000 & $730,000) but those were on deals made last year.
And 3 homes went to contract – $115,000, $250,600, $579,000

That’s about it. Plenty of supply not much demand.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

Catalina Foothills Estates home owners

Dear Neighbor,

I just wanted to email you a reminder that the Catalina Foothills Association will be holding our Annual Meeting next Tuesday, January 25th at 6:30 pm at St. Phillips Church in the Murphey Gallery.  The program this year is "Community Partnership" and we have invited a number of groups to attend, including representatives from:
 
                        Tucson Cactus/Succulent Society
                        Watershed Management
                        Buffel Grass
                        Neighborhood Watch
                        TEP - Solar
                        Native Seeds SEARCH
                        CFA Sign Painting
                        Historic Committee – Joesler Homes and CFA Street Signs
                        Coalition for Sonoran Desert Protection

Each of these groups will have a table to set up so you may interact and learn more about those issues which are of greatest interest to YOU.  So come and meet your neighbors and enjoy some refreshments.

I hope to see you there!

Sincerely,

Will Pew
President -- Catalina Foothills Association
www.CatalinaFoothillsAssociation.org

a very sad day

and right in our own backyard

Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords shot- Vigil at Capitol

Arizona Rep. Giffords Shot in Tucson

Arizona congresswoman Giffords shot

Dr. Manny- Giffords Likely Faces Long Road to Recovery From Head Wound in Shooting

Former Rep. Grayson to Giffords- Gabby, we don't want to lose you

a new look

as you can see I’ve been fiddling with the look and layout  of the the blog. And so far I’m pretty happy with it – except the mountains are all squished and weird, it’s a work in progress.

JS

Lightning strikes

a reader was kind enough to send me these amazing shots of the Sunday night storm and allow me to post them. This is what it looked 
like from La Paloma Dr, location, location.

is this what they mean by earthshaking

this is the one that fried my internet service, I just know it,

badda boom

thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

deferring the pain

I referred a client of mine who wanted a condo to Walter Klein, an agent who knows the condo scene inside and out. I don’t, so I don’t do them.

Anyway, he was telling me about a condo development where there’s one for sale for $189,000 which my client likes quite a bit. But the three others that sold in there this year - with the same sq footage, same floor plan, etc, etc, condos are infinitely comparable – sold for between $119,000 and $134,000. So he approached the listing agent to say, hey look, I want to write an offer but it’s going to be in line with the 3 that sold, and not with your list price, because …

The listing agent told him to forget about it. No way, the owner paid $$XXX and he’s not gonna sell it for less.

we’ll see.

thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it’s like rubbing salt in the wound

I enjoy writing this blog and offering information, observations and my opinion of the goings on in the Tucson Foothills home market. And I very much appreciate all the people who follow it. Thank you.

And all the data that appears here, and that I use along with my street knowledge to support those observations and opinions, is available to all Tucson Realtors®.

So, please, please, if you’re working with another Realtor® – hard to believe, but it does happen – please have your Realtor® provide the data, comps and opinions necessary to successfully negotiate your deal. Increasingly, buyers are pulling one or more of my blog posts and waving them at the seller or listing agent and using them as justification for their offer or opinion of value.
And while I certainly appreciate the trust that that implies, more and more, I’m having to defend myself against sellers who, let’s say, feel differently about what I have to say. And these days, when waved in the face of a frustrated seller, even the most innocuous observation can be salt in the wound. And I realize that it’s an odd request – read my blog, believe what I say, but don’t quote me. Jeez, what’s the world coming to.

The market’s tough, really tough and nerves are stretched thin. I get that. But I also didn’t create this market. As a matter of fact, over the last couple of years I’ve tried to help people – buyers or sellers -understand the market for what it is, rather than for what they wish it was. But that’s tough stuff and bound to rub a few people the wrong way.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

we should have such problems

Real estate's new problem: Not enough homes

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Can it be possible? Despite the housing bust and high foreclosure rates, in some areas real estate agents are complaining that they don't have enough homes to sell.

In some areas, supplies are even bidding-war tight. In Denver, for example, supply has fallen to 5.7 months from 6.2. In Phoenix it has declined to 4.5 from 5.2; and in San Francisco inventory has halved, to 3.2 months from 6.5 last March.

In California, almost all cities have a short supply of single-family homes. That's especially true in the lower-priced categories, according to Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.

The supply of homes that sell for less than $300,000 is at 3.2 months statewide, down from an already low 3.3 month supply 12 months ago.

Inventory of moderately priced homes, those between $300,000 and 500,000, fell to 4.2 months in March, down from 4.5 months in March 2009.

There are plenty of more expensive homes in California, but this inventory is going quick: inventory for million-dollar-plus homes has dropped from 21.6 months to 10.9 months.

Read all about it> Real estate's new problem: Not enough homes

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

not much worth mentioning

These last couple of days have been about as slow as it gets on a hot day in August in Foothills real estate. And of the one or two items that might be of interest, for now anyway, I’ve got to keep them under my hat.

And still, there are 488 single family homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills, 108 of which are priced $1,000,000 to $13,500,000.  
Very few of which, I expect, are going anywhere fast.

Psst, if you hear any good foothills gossip, or anything worth mentioning, pass it along and I’ll print here. Otherwise, to pick up the slack, pretty soon I’ll have to start covering garage sales and Bar mitzvahs. Oy!

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

an uneventful day for tucson foothills real estate

a few new listings, from $179,000 to $325,000, not much there to get excited about
one contract on a $455,000 Shadow Hills house
and another one in Shadow Hills expired at $449,000
so 2 down for Shadow Hills,
five unremarkable price cuts on houses from $285,000 to $745,000
two homes sold, one at $155,000, the other at $640,000. ho-hum

which leads me to believe that it may have been a ho-hum weekend. I know it was for me. realestate-wise anyway

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

today (Monday, April 19, 2010)

6020 N Desert Moon Ct expired today after 535 days on the market, most recently at $995,000, and was promptly relisted at $995,000($259/sf) (Listed by Long Realty)

1600 E Placita Pluma - that’s in Shadow Hills - on the market 145 days, raised its price 25 thou today - $425 to $450. lots a luck.
(Listed by RE/MAX Excalibur)

7707 N Ancient Indian Dr, a very late to the party Pima Canyon spec home (built 2010) - dropped its price $100 thou, $1,995 > $1,895 ($340/sf). Just 95 days on the market, the old indian started out at $2,250. (Listed by Long Realty)

getting down to business in Cat 10, 
4341 N Placita Camaleon dropped $500k this morning – $2,490,000 to $1,990,000 - settling in at ($302/sf).

That’s for newer (2007 built) masonry construction/5 Beds/7.5 Baths (when you gotta go …/pool-spa/2.2 acres in C-10.
(Listed by Tierra Antigua)

And what a windfall – 5741 N Moccasin Tr listed at $999,900 ($232/sf), went to contract today after just 59 days on the market.
(Listed by long Realty) 

Why a windfall. Well, unless I’m mistaken, there’s been nothing in that neck a the woods, in that price range, that’s sold in a long time.
So Bravo!

And last but not least is 2430 E Placita Sin Lujuria in Sin Vacas.

Re-listed today, (and why it hasn’t sold I haven’t a clue)
it’s 1983 built - but almost completely remodeled in the last few years - 2608 sf/3 Beds/4 Baths/masonry construction/.82 acres, high up in Sin Vacas/$599,000 ($230/sf). And sweet as can be.  
If this sounds like what you’re looking for, have a look.
(yes, it is listed by Long Realty)

change for change’s sake?

I’ve been absent from the blog today because, unfortunately, I’ve spent more time with the conversion to our new MLS system than I ever imagined I would. More time trying to learn the new system –
it is complex - and more time working with a handful of other agents trying to identify ‘features’ that we think need to be changed.

By the time we’re done we’ll have spent countless hours changing the new system to make it look more like the one we already have, and like.

If you’re an agent in Tucson we’d love to hear what you have to say about your experience with the flex system and your opinions regarding the conversion to flex.

thank you,

I first wrote about the flex conversion here, which started a little firestorm > regarding the new flex mls system that we are moving to  -ps- be sure to check out the comments

believe me, if there was anything happening in foothills real estate, anything at all worth mentioning, I’d be writing about it

but it’s just dead slow,

I stopped at my office today, it was a like a ghost town, dead, and asked the girls at the front desk ‘how’s it going’.  Now they never say it’s slow, they just don’t – cheerful, corporate positive thinking. Anyway, today one of them whispered, ‘it’s slowww’ but then quickly added  ‘probably the calm before the storm’, to which I replied, ‘if so, and the storm turns out to be anything like the calm, we’re in for a helluva ride’

World’s Luxury-Home Prices Drop on Financial Crisis

From BusinessWeek.com

Luxury homes became more affordable last year as the financial crisis eroded prices from Monaco to Barbados, according to Knight Frank LLP.

Prime real-estate values at 56 locations declined by an average of 5.5 percent, the London-based property broker said in a report published today. Monaco was the most expensive market for the second year in a row, followed by London and Paris.

Wealthy individuals put off making purchases in 2009 because of concern about the economy, Knight Frank said. Prices of properties in the countryside, coastal locations and ski resorts, often bought as second homes, fell by at least 12 percent. The biggest declines were in Dubai, in the western part of Portugal’s Algarve, in Palma on the Spanish island of Mallorca and in Dublin. Values in each of those markets fell at least 22 percent.

Read all about it> World’s Luxury-Home Prices Drop …

just to be crystal clear

It has come to my attention that some readers of this blog may be under the impression that homes that I mention here are my listings.

In fact they are not. Please note, unless otherwise clearly stated that a listing is mine, I assure you, it is not. As a matter of fact, as of 12 midnight tonight, February 15, 2010, I do not represent any sellers and will, for the foreseeable future, only represent buyers of homes in the Tucson Foothills or anywhere else in the Tucson metro area.

Furthermore it is not, and never was, my intention to lead readers to believe that I am ‘advertising’ other agents listings on this blog.
I thought it was crystal clear, but apparently it is not, that my only purpose has been to provide information, along with my opinion, that may be helpful and useful to those who are interested in Tucson Foothills real estate and choose to read this blog. Be they buyers or sellers.

I apologize for any misunderstandings.

Please add your comments, point of view and criticism as you see fit.
I look forward to hearing all of it.

there’s a kind of hush

because not much has happened in Tucson Foothills real estate over the last few days, I’ve haven’t had much to report. But this is our busy season, right, so I’m sure things will perk up sooner or later.

Monday 2/8

With rainy, cold weather and the Super Bowl all on the same weekend, what can you expect,

well, a new listing in Pima Canyon wouldn’t be too much of a surprise – so make that 22 for sale in there. And with those really cute, tiny little pictures of it in the MLS, it does stand out from the crowd.
7303 N Mystic Canyon Dr - $1,127,000 ($319/sf)

And there’s more to choose from in Ventana too - 6030  N Desert Sun Ct hit the market today. Built 2001/5239 sf/4 Beds/4.5 Baths/1 story/3 car/pool-spa/$1,750,000 ($334/sf)/last sold 2001 - $1,206,500

In Foothills ll 6920 N Mercer Spring Pl sold for $740,000 ($226/sf) off a $780,000 list price. It’s worth noting that Mercer Spring last sold in 2001 for $735,000. So 5 grand in 9 years, uh oh. On the other hand, it went quick, just 64 days. But I’ll bet, at that price, the other home owners in Foothills ll may not be too thrilled. (it looks better in real life than in the pictures, much better)

5106 N Avenida De Castilla has once again dropped its price, this time to $539,000 ($148/sf). In April 07 it was $1,199,000. So the question is, how low can they go and still pull off a short sale.

And in Vista de Las Candelas - 7030 N Camino De Fosforo has found a buyer. List price $825,000($199/sf). 18 months ago it was $1,049,000 and, if it sells in just the mid 7’s, it’ll be in the top 3 highest sales ever in VDLC. 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

if it's any consolation, it’s not just here in the foothills

The U.S. housing market is sputtering again, adding to doubts about the vigor of the economic recovery

From WSJ.com

Fear of Double Dip in Housing

Home Starts Tumble and Mortgage Delinquencies Rise, Casting Cloud Over Recovery

Just a few months after housing showed signs of leveling off, bad weather and uncertainty over the extension of a home-buyer tax credit sent new-home starts in October tumbling 10.6% from the previous month. They fell to the lowest level since April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Starts of single-family houses fell 6.8%.

On Wednesday Pulte Homes Inc., the nation's largest home builder, warned investors of a grim outlook. "As we look out to 2010, we are expecting difficult conditions to continue," said chief executive Richard Dugas.

For borrowers with strong credit records, 30-year home mortgages are available for fixed rates of just under 5%, near the lowest levels in 50 years. That is helping demand, but many people can't get such loans because they have too much debt or are unemployed.

So mortgage rates are at their lowest level  in 50 years, but, despite that, mortgage applications are at their lowest level in 12 years.
Something’s wrong here, you think.

Fear of Double Dip in Housing

seen around town

 

Tres Chic, no

in hindsight

Yesterday in thinking outside the box I talked about the absurd pricing strategy used to sell 4647 E Palais Pl up in the Summit.

And Martha Briggs, the latest listing agent emailed me to say;
John: I am the current agent. Don't blame me for previous pricing. My price is $500,000 under last price and much more in line with homes of this size and amenities. Also, as far as being the showcase home, this is a blessing and a curse.

Amen. Martha is listing agent #5 for Palais Pl, God help her. And far from blaming her- she wasn’t even in the picture when those dopey pricing decisions were made years ago.  And in any case, who am I to blame.

I’m looking at this stuff after the fact and without benefit of knowing who said what to whom and how and why decisions were made behind closed doors. So who's to say.

Not me. But a lot of it is an easy target, you can smell the bs from miles away. And come on, for Palais Pl, it's reality that is stranger than fiction. And looking back at the absurdity of where we were and what went on - with hindsight, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel.

a new MLS for Tucson

The leadership of Tucson Association of Realtors – the group responsible for making the big decisions for the Tucson real estate community - recently announced that we’ll be getting a new provider to dish up our MLS info. And while it won’t be a minute too soon, the changeover to a new system – with new & better technology, a new interface and lots of new bells and whistles, we’re told and I hope - is sure to cause plenty of frustration and confusion among the ranks. To say nothing of the myriad technological hurdles and glitches that are sure to accompany the changeover.

So when they do get around to making this change – for some reason they haven’t told us when - you may need to be extra kind and patient with your favorite Realtor.

But hey, as we speak, our current Rappatoni MLS system, such as it is, is down again. Dead, can’t log on. Could be just another routine outage, or maybe a little extra poke in the eye from the folks at Rappatoni for bidding them adieu. 

So, unable to search for what’s happened since yesterday and therefore nothing to report, I loaf.

striking out in the foothills

If you’re making offers and getting nowhere, join the club- you’re not alone. Here are some recent deals I’ve tried to put together for buyers I’m representing, that, despite our best efforts, we can’t seem to get off the ground. (in some cases, but not all, prices have been changed a teensy-weensy bit, to keep it anonymous)

- listed $1,295,000(on the market about 18 months) 
  offered $1,085,000 – countered @ $1,275,000, 
  Next

- listed $579,900 (REO, new on market)
  offered $579,900 cash w/2 week close
  offer rejected - only considering offers at $650k & up

- listed $1,400,000 (on the market about 18 months)
  offered $1,000,000 cash, countered @ $1,200,000,
  no further signs of life

- listed $879,000 (on the market 2 years)
  offered $755,000 – countered @ $830,000,
  case closed

- listed $655,000 (on the market 1 year+)
  offered $595,000 – countered $605,000, 
  tantalizingly close, but no cigar

- listed $549,800 (REO, new on market)
  offered $560,000, rejected, in favor of $577,000 winning bid

- and though less recent, my fav
   listed $995,000 (about 3 months on the market)
   offered $850,000 - offer promptly Rejected. harumph!
   No counter, instead, we were informed that we were too far
   apart for the seller to be bothered with a counter.  
   PS- the listing expired after 235 days & has never returned

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

suddenly, everybody up there likes us

Read all about it

First it was - Tucson among hottest home buyers markets 

And now USATODAY chimes in -
Second homes: Tucson is the right size at the right price

And just in time to give a nice little boost to our improving home market

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

they’ll soon be beating down the doors

After weeding it down to the 50 top spots in the U.S. to retire, BusinessWeek.com chose Tucson as # 1.

America's Best Affordable Places to Retire

comcast service down again

Can't post today- and who knows when-last time it took Comcast 6 visits to get my service up & running. This is posted from my Blackberry

UPDATE, ABOUT 8 HOURS LATER; My service has been restored. Thank you Comcast. Thank you, thank you. The odd thing is, when I called Comcast today and reported I had no internet, no TV, no nothin- the customer service representative informed me that there was no outage in my area, so the problem must be at my house. And of course, therefore, I would need the dreaded service call in order to get things up and running again. oie vey. That was planned for tomorrow, conveniently, sometime between 1Pm to 5PM. And no one from Comcast showed up today ahead of schedule, no repairman, no nothing. Yet somehow the service has been restored, even though the problem was at my house and not due to an outage in the area. You gotta love it,

like it or not, all real estate is local

Unlike me, who concentrates on home sales in the Foothills, Long Realty tracks the housing market throughout southern Arizona. And perusing their charts and files, I came across this eye-opening map that shows months of inventory (MOI) by zip code.

Download HousingReportGenerate by ZIP

The yellow area on the map is 85718, which makes up about 80% of the Foothills and MOI is 18.1 months, the 2nd highest for all reported Zip codes. And 85750, which makes up the remainder of the Foothills, comes in with the 3rd highest MOI at 13.6 months.

Why is that, why do we have a higher MOI in the Foothills than in surrounding areas? Two things come to mind. The key reason is because the high-end market has been the hardest hit and the Foothills have the highest priced homes and a much higher share of high-end homes than other areas of Tucson.

And then there’s condos, which are included in this report, and which were a hot investment item during the 04 –07 condo craze, due largely to investors gone crazy converting apartment complexes to condos.
I’m guessing about 1500 condos came online in the Foothills during that craze, way more than we could absorb and way more than other areas, and while many have finally been sold off, we still have more condos for sale, along with slow sales, than other areas of Tucson, except for central.

The good news is that most of our neighbors are doing quite well, and hopefully, some of that will rub off.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

multiple offers making a comeback

That is according to this article, in AZBiz.com,
Sellers starting to see multiple bids on some home sales

Take homes priced to sell, combine that with record low interest rates, mix in tax credits for first-time home buyers and add a pinch of a little confidence and you have the recipe that’s starting to attract multiple offers from prospective buyers.
“I had one buyer make offers on four different homes and lost three before she got the fourth,” said Don Eugene, a real estate agent with Long Realty.

The phenomenon has been picking up  steam in the Tucson market over the past few months as sellers of resale homes tire of keeping them on the market drop their prices, often below what’s considered market value. Some agents say there have been cases when the multiple bidding winds up with the house being sold for more than the asking price.

This home located on Foothills Drive was listed by Louis Parrish at $175,000. It received 12 offers and eventually sold for $215,000

---

For now, this multiple offer business is pretty much exclusive to the lower end of the market. But, as prices drop at the high end, and they are, it would not be surprising to soon see some multiple bidding up there too. Stay tooned

and see thefoothillsToday.com
to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

from the front lines

I’ve been out just about every day for the past few weeks showing homes to six different buyers. We’re looking at homes in the Foothills priced from $750,000 up to about $2.5mil. And my buyers are not tire kickers, they are ready, willing and able to buy, if only we could find the right home at the right price.

Two of the six buyers have found homes they like, we’ve been able to strike a deal, and put those homes in escrow. And they’re pleased.

But for the others, many of the homes we’ve looked at, and we’ve looked at dozens, are priced so hopelessly out of whack with today’s market, that no one is about to take the leap. When I mention this to the listing agents who call for feedback after a showing, they often prod me to make an offer - suggesting that the seller may well look at and consider offers, below, or even well below, the listing price.

Encouraging though that may be, why I ask, do you expect buyers to leap across that big divide separating fantasy from reality, without the seller meeting them at least half way. I’ve never gotten an answer to that, not one that makes sense anyway.

But reading between the lines, it’s become apparent to me that in many cases, and though they've been reduced somewhat, the listing agents are stuck with a price that was decided many months ago, before everything hit the fan. And with sellers who still refuse to admit that anything’s changed.

time’s running out though, just 31 shopping days til June

see thefoothillsToday.com
to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

buyer beware, most of the homes in the Foothills are in HOA's

And just in case you thought HOA's are a bunch of old coots pushing toothless rules, they're not, our own Arizona Daily Star has some common sense advice on buying in an HOA community,

Don't buy home in HOA if you can't heed rules

and don't miss the reader comments

see thefoothillsToday.com
to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

flirting with fame

In the last two days I've gotten calls from The Wall Street Journal and True West magazine, and both of them were looking to feature a couple of the homes I've mentioned on the blog.

WSJ was interested in the house at 5280 E Mission Hill Dr, in Skyline CC, and the managing editor of True West contacted me about doing a feature on the wonderful Lee Marvin Residence built by Josias Joesler

Both are listed by other agents, so I passed on their names, etc. and slumped back into obscurity. But surely, if Tucson's not already on everyone's lips, it soon will be.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

what do home buyers want

An article in today's New York Times offers some clues to the changed attitudes of home buyers and the resulting shift in emphasis in real estate ads. Hint, value is the new black.

And imagine, if this is happening in NYC, the high temple of haute, what might that say about the mind-set of buyers here in little old Tucson.

Adjectives Get Evicted

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to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

Chicago -11°, Minneapolis -15°, Omaha -2°, Greenwich 6°, Washington DC 17°, Milwaukee -4°, Cedar Rapids -19°, Montreal -13°, Cincinnati 2°, Des Moines -9°, Boston 13°

if nothing else works,

     TUCSON
74° Clear/Sunny,  

this may do the trick

a special treat

James Snedden, a writer and resident of the Catalina Foothills Estates, wrote an article on the history of the Hacienda del Sol guest ranch that appeared in the Catalina Foothills Estates Newsletter. 
I thought you'd enjoy it, and Jim was kind enough to allow me to post it here.

Hacienda del Sol
By James Snedden

   What do the Campbells (like in soup), Pillsburys, Vanderbilts, Westinghouses, Maxwells, and the Spaldings have in common besides being very wealthy?

   The answer is they all shipped their daughters to the Hacienda del Sol school for girls in the Santa Catalina Mountain foothills.

   From 1930 to 1941, Hacienda del Sol was a college preparatory school with an enrollment of 20 to 25 young ladies, most coming from wealthy families since tuition, room and board was $1,600 a year. Balance this against the fact that in the 1930s more than half of American families earned between $500 and $1,500 per year, and it didn't get any better in subsequent years. In fact, during 1935-1936 the median family income was $1,160. Putting this in perspective, the $1,600 in 1930 would be equivalent to $26,000 in 2006 dollars when the median family income was $58,400.

   For that amount of money the girls did get an above average education if for no other reason that the student to teacher ratio was 4 to 1, which is about as close to individual tutoring as you can get.

   Although two girls shared a room in sparse surroundings, that's where the sacrifice ended. They were fed in a style fit for a king. Perhaps because they shared their chef with a king. Chef Arne Hoelli spent May - October each year cooking for the girls and the rest of the year on the yacht of Norway's King Olav V preparing some of the same succulent dishes for his majesty.

   School was in session six days a week during that May - October period, with the only vacation being over Easter when the girls went to Mexico. I haven't been able to discover where in Mexico they went. They could well be the forerunners of spring break at Rocky Point, only with chaperones.

   To break up the boredom of being stuck in the desert while their brothers were enjoying sailing around Newport, most of the girls had their own horses and took advantage of the school's remote location and excellent riding trails. They kept their mounts in the existing stable and corral area.

   In the late 1930's fire damaged some of the buildings. Since John Murphey the original developer of the foothills, was the owner of the building, it was no surprise that he commissioned Josias Joesler to rebuild the damaged areas.

   The school closed its doors in 1941 at the outbreak of World War II due to the shortage of teachers, never to reopen in its original form.

   In 1948 the property began operating as the Hacienda del Sol guest ranch. Although the ownership has changed hands several times since then, the owners have kept the lobby and library virtually the same as it was when it was a school. In fact, some of the original books are still on the library shelves.

   The original timbers for the beams in the library ceiling are from Mount Lemmon. Helen Murphey, whom residents of the foothills will remember was John Murphey's spouse, designed the intricate patterns carved into the beams, when the school was being built. Mrs. Murphey also had a hand in the designs that appeared on the doors of the original building, which are preserved as inlays in the bar.

   Also found throughout the property are handcrafted fixtures and tile work of Mrs. Murphey's design. The ceiling inside the bar area is by Josias Joesler. 

  The next time you go to the ranch's famous grill for lunch or dinner, spend some time wandering around this little bit of history in our midst. Pay a visit to the lobby, the library, and enjoy some of the photographs hanging on the walls along the corridor adjacent to the courtyard, which still looks the same, sans the artificial turf. Drink a toast, even if it is just iced tea, to those young ladies who undoubtedly later related many exaggerated tales of life on the wild frontier at cocktail parties on Manhattan's East Side .

Thank you Jim.

And a link to today's> Hacienda del Sol Guest Ranch Resort

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Day 1: New Year

A clean slate, a fresh start. No stats, no data, no baggage.

So I'd like to turn it over to you the readers of this blog, and ask you take a sec and respond to the poll in the upper right side of the page.
Hearing about your real estate plans for the new year would be a great way to kick things off.

And I look forward to hearing more from you, letting me know what you'd like to see more of, and less of, and so on. Your opinions, observations, comments, even a criticism or two.

And when you leave a comment on the blog, you can use your real name or an alias, or whatever you want, and your email address will not be publicly displayed. And though your email address is visible to me, I won't hound you for business or send you any cute real estate stuff. I promise. You won't hear from me, unless of course you want to. 

Have a great New Year!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

where's the value

this little house way up in the Foothills,

which the listing describes as, " Absolutely Amazing Views! You can't beat the location of this home in the Catalina Foothills Estates nestled in the Catalina Mountains with views of the entire city and all of the mountains surrounding Tucson"

JUST SOLD for list price ($365,000) in 8 days,

And I can see why. The house is just 2000sf, 2 bedrooms/2 baths, but the lot is worth more than $365,000. Homes in that area, and they don't all have these wide open views, are listed up to $1,500,000 and have sold recently up to $975,000.

Great lots are very hard to find in the Foothills. And because there's a home on them like this one, and I know of a couple more, they're listed as homes, rather than lots for sale. But in many cases, because the homes are very old and outdated, they make a lot more sense as a lot, than as a home.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

spread the word, get real

I've taken some heat lately for beating the drum that sellers need to get real. Yes I've tried to point out, using data and stats and whatnot, and harped even, that many homes are still priced way beyond what buyers are willing to pay.

And because of that, home sales are stalled, and will continue to be stalled until prices get to where buyers think they should be.
And until they are, another ad, or another open house, is not likely to make it all better. And by the way, I beat that drum, not to criticize, but to inform home sellers, as well as buyers.   

So looking to shed some of the heat and get some support for these distasteful views of mine, I turn to the uniquely entertaining and informative Christopher Fountain, of the Greenwich, CT real estate blog, For What It's Worth 

Turns out that in Greenwich, that bastion of sacrosanct wealth and power, they're feeling the pinch too, and having the same tug-of-war over home prices that we are. And taking plenty of heat too I'm sure, Chris cuts to the heart of what's going on with prices, sales and the other smoldering issues to do with Greenwich real estate.

See A jaundiced view of sellers’ attitudes

And then spend some time perusing For What It's Worth for his special take on the Greenwich market and more.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the market

A friend of mine who's also a Realtor® told me a little story about a house that's listed for sale here in the Tucson Foothills.

It's listed for $1.5+ (no, I don't want to identify the house).
And recently a buyer and their agent came to look at the house, stayed a long time, and then they came back for 6 more showings.

And finally after 7 showings, the buyer and their agent submitted an offer. The offer was $470,000 under the list price. My friend's comment was, "They were pissed. (the owners) Chutzpah to go back 6 times and then come in so low"

Chutzpah, Pissed, huh! They're lucky they got an offer.

I told my Realtor® friend,
"...maybe the owners expectations are unrealistic and the house is priced tooo high. In time they'll find out"

I mention it because I know this is not an isolated case.
It's what's happening out there. And instead of getting pissed, get real. Maybe (the) owners/sellers should take a hard look at where we are in the economic/financial/stock & real estate markets today vs. their expectations and adjust to reality if necessary, and then do their best to negotiate a mutually agreeable price.

That's the market, period. No if's and's or but's

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

an outsiders perspective on the Tucson Foothills market

I came across an article in American Chronicle, an online magazine, written by Daniel Jaffe, an attorney who's planning to move to the Tucson Foothills. Mr. Jaffe writes of his experience searching for a home here and gives us his unvarnished take on the Tucson Foothills real estate market. It's a genuine and constructive perspective from a home buyer who's ready to buy.

"Tucson seems to be a real estate market that is divided into two basic camps. Camp one includes the sellers and realtors who have come to terms with the reality of today's bad market and are asking realistic prices and therefore selling houses. Camp two includes the sellers and realtors who are using comps of yesteryear's boom, and expecting parity in today's buyer's market".

Read the article here>
Tucson Real Estate Market - A Layman's Adventures

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

in the Tucson Foothills real estate market ...

On this blog I try to post information and write about things that I think may be helpful, interesting or amusing to those of you interested in the Tucson Foothills real estate market - including sales statistics, trends, new developments, and my observations and opinions about what's happening in the Foothills market.
 
While I pick these topics because I think they'll be helpful or interesting, it's very likely there are other things about the foothills market that I haven't even thought of or touched on, that you'd like to know.
Something to do with home sales, prices, trends, an analysis or opinion of a particular segment or area of the market, or something else entirely, that I haven't thought of.
 
If you let me know what you'd like to know, I'll do my best to answer your questions and provide the information here on the blog.
 
Let's face it, it's summer, it's 108, the real estate market is slower,
and I'd like to keep busy, indoors.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Memorial Day weekend in the Tucson Foothills

Enjoy it!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes