TheTucsonFoothills

then and now in the Tucson Foothills

Writing about home sales in the Tucson Foothills last February (what’s selling) I said;

in the last 30 days 56 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(6 foreclosures in that group)

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (274 remain for sale) = 6.5 months inventory
10 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (123 for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (89 for sale) = 22.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $483,914/$364,000/$164 sf

flash forward to today and,

in the last 30 days 53 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(and 6 foreclosures this year too) honest

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (195 remain for sale) = 4.6 months inventory
7 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (87 remain for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (74 remain for sale) = 18.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $476,781/$359,850/$164 sf

So déjà vu. Other than a few bucks here and a few bucks there the numbers are incredibly similar, if not identical, from then to now.

But what has changed in the last year, and it is significant, is the number of homes in contract & for sale last February vs. today.

Last Feb there were 484 single family homes for sale and 82 in contract -  
today there are 351 for sale and 139 in contract, see yesterday’s post > curious about what’s in contract 

That’s 27% fewer homes for sale along with a 69% increase in demand.
That’s not chickenfeed.

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Foothills 2 is 2 for 2

and it’s lucky number 13, too

Two weeks ago I mentioned that 3632 E Windy Point Drive, listed at $1,195,000, went to contract in 13 days - (dead wrong)

And now 6941 N FINGER ROCK Place, listed just 13 days ago at $895,000, is also in contract.

6941 N FINGER ROCK Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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at long last

3731 E Sumo Septimo is in contract,

It’s been around and I mentioned it a few times over the years, most recently here >
a long way from where it started

3731 E Sumo Septimo Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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sales and contracts

first, on Coronado Drive

4455 E Coronado Drive sold today for $1,035,000 ($257/sf) – and while that is 27% less than the $1,425,000 it started at in October 2010 – it is still way more than I would’ve bet it would ever get, in this market anyway. But maybe this market is changing and this is just another little sign that it is.    4455 E Coronado Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)
It last sold in 05 for $1,185,000, so, by the numbers the sellers did well.

And right down the street  4000 E Coronado Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 is reported in contract from a $389,000 list price. This is why it’s often difficult to make proper appraisals in areas of the foothills where there are a wide variety of houses – old and shabby, old and renovated, old and not renovated but not shabby, new and nice, new and not so nice, not new but not old either …
(listed by Long Realty)

And here are some of the other sales and contracts in the foothills, though not on Coronado Drive,

961 E Calle Mariposa sold for $769,000 in 2005, and today as a foreclosure for $436,000 off a $412,500 list price -  so a little bidding war I presume. (listed by Long Realty)

And in Skyline Belair 5132 E Camino Alisa went for $537,500 in 2002 and for $475,000 today. 2002 Yikes, (listed by Long Realty)

4430 N Hacienda Del Sol Road sold today for $554,000 off a $575,000 list price after just 6 days on the market. It was listed as a Joesler  – and it’s on 3.8 acres. So it’s special,  (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

5440 N Ventana Vista Road, in Ventana Vista, sold for $430,000 in October 08 and for $345,000 today. (listed by Long Realty)

A similar fate befell 5130 N Pelican River Way  - $489,753 in 07 and got just $368,000 today.
(listed by Realty Executives Tucson Elite)

 3641 E Via Alcalde is in contract today from a $949,000 ($255/sf) list price after about 4 and half months. It was also listed for 6 months in 07 – 08 at $1,550,000, to no avail. (listed by Long Realty)
Isn’t it nice to see realistic pricing pay off. 

And 7898 N Ancient Indian Drive, a short sale in Pima Cyn, was in a short sale contract for eternity, well almost, from late July to early February and after all that time it fell out. Now someone else has come along and put it back in contract – though still a 1st stage short sale contract.  (listed by Long Realty) 

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listed just 8 days ago and it’s in contract

6660 N Saint Andrews Drive – a beautifully renovated older home in Skyline CC, listed at $900,000, in contract.

I know this house well, I represented the sellers in 2004 when they bought it for $755k - time flies. And I meant to write about it when it was listed last week, but something came up and it slipped my mind. Congratulations to all. 

6660 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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listed just 14 days ago and it’s already in contract

That’s 6060 E Calle De Vita, a 2009 built, 3376 sf home in Rio Verde Vista listed at $1,035,000 ($307/sf)

Assuming this deal closes for somewhere near asking price, and given the quick time to contract that would be a reasonable assumption, it will join ranks with 2 other recent sales as the 3 highest $$ sales in RVV in the past 3 years.

One sale that tips the scales might be be a quirk, two are interesting, but three, that’s the start of something.

6060 E Calle De Vita Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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Red Cardinal Place changes hands again

That’s 6079 E Red Cardinal Place in Rio Verde Vista III – a newer home in a newer subdivision.

It sold in 03, when it was brand new, for $947,943
then in 05 for $960,000
then last April for $715,000
and it sold again yesterday for $775,000

Now we know prices have gone down, not up, over the last 12 months and nothing of any consequence was done to the house to improve it, so why did it sell for more now than then.  Also, last April’s sale took 77 days and this time it flew off the shelf in just 18.
(and zillow’s zestimate for this sale was $666,600 –  down about 7% from last years price.
And going by the numbers that sounds about right. But that’s not what happened, human nature must have gotten in the way, darnit!

 Here are the listings from both sales, maybe you can figure it out.

Yesterday’s sale
6079 E Red Cardinal Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Coldwell Banker)

Last April’s sale
6079 E Red Cardinal Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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a few sales today

From the million + group,
6070 N Desert Sun Court, in Ventana Canyon Estates, sold today for $1,075,000 ($234/sf) from a $1,199,000 list price that was reduced from $1.3 when it debuted last September.
and just for fun - zillow zestimated it at $1,003,200 – not bad for a long distance guess)
6070 N Desert Sun Court , Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

at the lower end,
we have 5885 E Calle Val. Calle Val’s sales over the years mimics the rise and fall of the market here in Tucson. It sold in 1997 for $250,000, in 2000 for $273,500, in 2004 for $389,000 and today for $365,000 ($147/sf). (zillow zestimated it at $380,500 - a bulls eye)
5885 E Calle Val, Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

and in the middle of the pack, but just
4264 N Placita De Sandra squeaked in with a $600k sale ($205/sf) in  Bellas Catalinas.
(zillow came up a bit short on this one – calling it $543,400)
4264 N Placita De Sandra Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Coldwell Banker)

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dead wrong

Asked what I thought about the new listing at 3632 E Windy Point Drive I was less than enthusiastic about its chances. And it’s a terrific house. And I know it well, I listed and sold it for $1,050,000 in 2005.

And though there’ve been some nice upgrades done since then, I thought in this market- nah, it would be a tough road at $1,195,000 ($322/sf). But good thing they didn’t listen to me. Because after just 13 days it’s already in contract. And I’m guessing that, given the quick contract, the offer must be fairly close to list too. You can’t beat that.
Congratulations!

3632 E Windy Point Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

high or low end, buyers are waiting for the right price

Yesterday I mentioned a house in Pima Canyon where buyers waited almost 4 years for it to get down to what they considered to be the right price – $1,195,000, in that case, vs its initial list price of $2,600,000 > buyers are quite content to wait it out <

And today a little Golf Villa in Ventana that sold for $375,000 in1999 - and was listed in 2008 for $749,000 – sat and sat and was reduced and reduced until it got down to $425,000.
And that did it - it went to contract and sold today for $380,000 - a 4 year wait to get what it sold for in 99. 

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we’re bumping along at 2003 prices

In the 6 months from August 2003 to February 2004-
385 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $444,612/$360,000 at $156/sf

flash forward 8 years

To the 6 months from August 2011 to now, February 2012-
260 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $467,990/$361,000 at $155/sf

Want a more recent view – here’s what it looks like for the last 3 months

November 7, 2003 to February  7, 2004-
146 sold at average/median $479,965/$382,500 @ $163/sf

& now,

November 7, 2011 to today, February 7, 2012-
144 sold at average/median $494,792/$380,000 @ $158/sf

2003 prices!

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January home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Sales that close in January are hatched from deals that were made in Nov/Dec – and because people are having fun during the holidays, rather than buying homes, fewer deals are made. 
So January sales numbers are usually low. And this January is about par for the course – at least for the course as it’s been during these post boom years. ( for single family homes only –
# sold/month & the median sale price for that month))

January 2012
36 sold
median sale price - $354,925

January 2011
35 sold
median sale price - $375,500

January 2010
39 sold
median sale price - $400,000

January 2009
24 sold
median sale price - $410,500

January 2008
34 sold
median sale price - $510,000

January 2007
42 sold
median sale price -$520,000

January 2006
54 sold
median sale price - $594,500

January 2005
84 sold
median sale price - $457,750

January 2004
47 sold
median sale price - $380,000

January 2003
56 sold
median sale price - $315,409

Also - Judging market prices based on one months sales is not terribly accurate or dependable way to go about it – there just aren’t enough sales in any one month to be representative of the market.  But if you’re going to do it anyway, as I have here, median prices– rather than average prices (which are quickly skewed by one or two large sales) offer a more dependable view.

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it sold, but it sure didn’t come easy

3208 E Via Palomita sold today for $1,750,000 ($279/sf) - after having been at it since  December 2008 when it debuted at $3,200,000. Congratulations to all!

This is the biggest sale in La Paloma in the last 2 years. And though 2nd place was close behind, at $1,640,000, it dropped off very steeply after that.

3208 E Via Palomita Tucson, AZ 85718 
(listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc.)

 

like people, some houses just lead more interesting lives than others

Take 4496 N Via Bellas Catalinas. It  was first listed for $950,000 in 05. And it didn’t sell but they didn’t lower the price, no, they raised it to $999,000. But still it didn’t sell, so they stopped pussyfooting around and raised it to a million-two. Way to go. A million-two in one swoop. That takes nerve. And guess what happened, someone came along and paid a million-two. No kidding. That was February 2006 -when practically everything sold for about twice what it was worth.

But despite the high price they paid, the love affair was short-lived and the house went back on the market just two months later, for $1,250,000. And they stuck it out at $1.250 for about a year and then started dropping it $40 to $50k a pop until eventually it got down to $950,000 where it started. But by then it was too late and mr lender reared his ugly head and took it over – that was October 07. And a couple of months later It came back on the market as one of the pioneering foreclosure listings in the foothills, this time for $719,900. But still no one wanted it.

But finally a buyer did come along and make them an offer they couldn’t refuse – them being Deutche Bank - they took $400,000 for it and ran all the way home, not knowing whether to laugh or cry. 

And hallelujah, it’s back on the market today, and all spiffed up I hear, and listed for $849,000.
Check it out.

4496 N Via Bellas Catalinas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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a Joesler gets clobbered

The Joesler at 5051 N La Lomita sold for $660,000 in 1999 and was listed in late 2009 for $1,195,000. On the market since then it sold yesterday for $765,000 ($175/sf), off an $839,000 list price. And that’s with 2.7 hilltop acres.

An attractive Joesler, and one of the few for sale in the foothills, and, more to the point, one of a dwindling number of Joesler’s in the foothills, period – you’d think (I would anyway) it would’ve sold a little quicker and for a little more $$.

But I also think the initial list price - $1,195,000 – which they stuck to for 12 months was, ah, off putting. And like so many listings that start out too high, by the time the price got down to earth it had been on the market a year and a half and any excitement about it had long since faded. Isn’t hindsight wonderful

5051 N La Lomita Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

last summer I mentioned La Lomita here > even Joesler has to tow the line (at that writing it went to contract, but later fell thru)

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here’s one for the books

4151 E La Paloma Drive sold for $715,000 in 2006. At that time it was listed as 3300 square feet – with the Floor Plan people shown as the source of the sf.
And it was in vintage 1976 condition,
like this,

 

and this,

 

And after paying $715k the new owner spent a whole bunch more and remodeled it and listed it for $1,000,000 in 2009. Meanwhile, it had somehow grown to 4000 square feet, and now the owner was listed as the source of the sf.

And it looked like this,

and this,

A very nice improvement, but it didn’t sell.
So it was reduced to $899 then $799 then up to $839, etc. And it went through a few listing agents along the way.

Meanwhile the square footage stayed at 4000 sf, but suddenly the Assessor, as in Pima County Tax Assessor, was listed as the source. Baloney, that’s just not so. As a matter of fact, the assessor shows the square footage as 2530 sf. And they always did.
Is there any question that the shenanigans with the square footage have probably hindered, rather than helped, the sale of this property.

And that brings us to the present and latest new listing for La Paloma Drive. Yes it’s been listed again. It turned up today asking for $350,000 as a short sale (can you believe it, half what it sold for in 06, before the remodel). 

Meanwhile it shrunk, it’s now listed as 2530 square feet, exactly what the Pima County Assessor has shown it to be all along.

Make sure you know what you’re buying.

4151 E La Paloma Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

UPDATE; it’s just a few hours later and La Paloma Drive is already in contract.

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and yet another contract in Pima Canyon

I realize my reports of one contract after another in PC may be getting very tedious, but it’s Pima Canyon, what can I do, I can’t ignore it. So I’ll at least try to make this one interesting …

7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive – first listed in February 2010 for $1,127,000 and failed to sell - 
is reported in contract, currently listed at $799,900 ($222/sf) – down about 33%.

You may recall that last March they announced a really creative approach to pricing this house. They announced right in the listing that they were going to drop the price $5000 every week until it sells. Is that a nifty idea or what. And, as you can imagine, if buyers weren’t breaking down the doors before, why rush to make an offer now that you stand to save a bundle by just sitting back and waiting. And time went by but no one took the bait. So they scrapped that idea and went back to the more traditional tactic of dropping $50k or so, unannounced in advance.

and PS-  this may very well take the cake for the lowest $$/sf sale in PC in many moons. (that is, not counting a few foreclosures that were ripped apart and needed $250k or more to put them back together)

7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br 70207)

now isn’t this curious

6702 N Los Leones Drive in Skyline CC sold in 2004 for $825,000 and it sold again today for more than it did back then, for $950,000. And since there’s no indication of improvements having been made during that interval, I’m, let’s say, surprised at how much it sold for today.

Is this an indication that the market is loosening up, or is it just one of those things.

In any case that makes two sales today in Skyline CC. And that is something. The other is reported just below this,

6702 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

another older 2 story sells in Skyline CC

7028 N Mission Hill Lane sold today for $700,000 ($164/sf) from a $750,000 list price. It was built in 1982 and it’s a 2 story with spectacular views. And maybe that did it.

And in the Catalina Foothills 2 story homes are tougher to sell. Because there are simply many fewer buyers who are interested in, or would even consider, a 2 story. Elsewhere in the country, in SF, NY, Chicago, Atlanta, etc. 2 story homes are the norm. But not here.

But seeing this sale I remembered another recent sale of an older 2 story home in Skyline.
So I pulled up the recent sales and sure enough there it was - 7077 N Mission Hill Lane – right up the street – also sold. 

And looking further, I found 4 more older 2 stories that sold recently in Skyline. Yes, there are plenty of older homes in Skyline and many of them are 2 story. Why. Well, one reason is that if they’re up on the hillside it’s a lot cheaper and easier and quicker to put up a 2 story than to prep and fill and level enough of the hillside to accommodate a 1 story home. And sometimes, even if you’re willing to take the time and pay the price there just isn’t enough hillside to accommodate a single story home of the size required. And above it all are  the views from the 2nd story

Here’s a link to the 5 two story homes sold in Skyline in the last 6 months 
- they sold for an average of 168/sf.

And while I was at it, I thought I might as well compare two stories sales to one story sales in Skyline and see what’s what.  

And guess what, 5 one story homes also sold in Skyline in the same 6 months.  
- they sold for a little more, $190/sf, but, it seems that in Skyline, anyway, buyers are just as interested in two story homes as they are in one stories.

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2011 sales, at a glance

That’s for single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills through the Tucson Association of
Realtors®  MLS

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make that 5 Golf Villas in contract

Last week I wrote that after months with barely any action at all that 4 Golf Villas in Ventana suddenly went to contract in a couple of days - how quickly things can change 

One of them was at 6081 N Black Bear Loop, and now its neighbor at 6084 N Black Bear Loop is also in contract. Last week there were 11 for sale, this week there are 6.

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what’s in contract

looking at which homes are in contract offers a good indication of what’s happening in the market right now – of what homes and at what prices buyers and sellers are actively engaged in the market. 

Overall, there are 105 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. And with 364 for sale, 105 in contract equals 28% of the available inventory in contract. And that’s pretty good.
But as you’ll see, and which has been the case for some time, most the action is huddled at the lower end, with diminishing activity at higher price points.

Broken down by list prices, there are;

84 in contract at $0 to $599,999 
(201 remain for sale) is 42% of available inventory in contract. WOW!

12 at $600,000 to $999,999
(90 for sale) is 13% of available inventory in contract

6 at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
(36 for sale) is almost 17% of available inventory in contract

3 at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
(18 for sale) is almost 17% of available inventory in contract

0 (none) at $2,000,000 & UP 
(21 for sale) is a long dark tunnel

**the number of homes in contract as reported above is only accurate at the time I pulled the data. Late Sunday afternoon. That’s because the number of homes in contract is constantly changing, so what you see when you click the listings above may well be different than what I’ve reported. That’s due to additional homes going to contract, while others that are in contract pass all the hurdles and sell (and therefore are no longer in contract) while still others fail to pass all the hurdles and fall out of contract and go back on the market as active listings.

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is $9 something the new million five

In Pima Canyon,1495 E Canyon Spring Court sold for $1,550,000 in March 2006. Then it sold again in January 07 for $1,525,000.

And last November the current owners (who paid $1.525) listed it (as a short sale) for $989,000. That’s right $989,000 right out of the chute. And you’d think that would do it, but no, after two months nothing happened, so they reduced it to $939,000 and that did do it. It went to contract the other day.

It, is a 2006 built David Tyson desert contemporary on the most private lot I’ve ever seen in PC, and with big mountain views. And for those wanting an extra dose privacy and security, along with a tad more exclusivity, (and who doesn’t) it’s at the north end of Pima Cyn behind the 2nd gate.

1495 E Canyon Spring Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by MacMorran & Assoc. R.E. Svcs.)

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how quickly things can change

 Just a few days ago I was reporting that a Golf Villa in Ventana had (finally) gone to contract, ( the market speaks) and I mentioned that > ‘the competition in the Golf Villas is stiff, there are 10 for sale and just 2 sold in the last 6 months …’ 

That was on the 17th. And then, in rapid succession over the next three days 3 more Golf Villas went to contract. So out of the blue we suddenly have 4 contracts in 4 days when, until then, there had been just one in 6 months.

Noted however is that, regardless of where they were initially priced, all of them were now listed at prices that reflect the current market.

>  to contract, to contract – 4 Golf Villas < (listed by Long Realty, Keller Williams, Coldwell Banker)

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I thought this should have sold long ago

in Cat 10, 4525 N Via De La Granja sold for $1,200,000 in October 06 - then underwent a 
top to bottom high-end remodel that had to cost $300k, or more, (I was told $500k) and finally sold today for $1,150,000 ($232/sf). geez.

They tried for more - it was listed for $1,399,000 in June 2010, then dropped to $1,275,000 in September – which didn’t seem out of line to me but, more importantly, no one stepped up to buy it.

But even so, it’s the kind of house that even if it wasn’t just right for you, you could see the value – wonderful location & lot, beautiful views, solidly built masonry construction and a very attractive remodel. You had to figure it wouldn’t last.That’s what I thought, and a couple of clients I showed to did too.

I wrote about De La Granja a few times, most recently here > 2 good contracts <

4525 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

PS- It left the market last January and returned in October and went to contract in early December. So for its 2nd time around, it went quick.
Maybe it was just 2010, the year of the reluctant buyer and the obstinate seller.

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how’s the high-end market doing

Let’s look at the numbers and see.
At $1 mil and up there are 75 homes listed for sale
(average list price $2,166,359) (none are distress sales, yeah!)

There are 10 in contract - 
(average list price $1,388,400) (2 distress sales)

And 13 sold in the last 3 months
(average sold price $1,350,154) (3 were distress sales)

With the current inventory and rate of sales, there is a 17+ month supply of homes at $1 mil and up – about 3X what is considered a normal or balanced market.

And then there’s this - the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average list price of those in contract by 56% – and the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average sold price of those sold by 60%.  Why, because for the most part,  buyers are choosing homes from the  low end of the high-end inventory. And not from the mid to high-end of the high-end inventory. Make sense?

So looking at it with eyes-wide-open, it’s clear the high-end continues to be a very unbalanced market that is heavily weighted in favor of buyers. Or at least it should be. 
But there are still quite a few home sellers who apparently don’t care about that stuff, you know, the facts.  

On the other hand we’ve recently entered our high season for home sales here in the Tucson Foothills – a hopeful time which runs January to May or June – when, presumably, there are more buyers looking for, and buying, high-end homes. A time when, if the market is going to improve,(a very big if) this is when it’s most likely to do it. Of course, unless another shoe drops somewhere in the world.

PS – since January 1st just 2 homes listed at $1 mil or more have gone to contract.

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price it right, sell it fast

In Ventana Reserve, 6042 N Indian Trail was just listed on December 20th and it’s in contract today.

And having paid $1,250,000 for it in May 2010, I’m sure it wasn’t easy to kiss off a couple of hundred thou and list it for $999,000 ($220/sf). But that’s the market, and the market doesn’t care what you paid or what you want.

6042 N Indian Trail Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

 

the first 16 days

January 16, 2012

in January 2010 there were
455 homes for sale listed at an average of $948,615

today there are
354 for sale listed at an average of $865,779
(so 22% fewer homes for sale now  than then – and listed at almost 9% less)

and in January 2010
13 homes sold between Jan 1 and Jan 16 at an average of $512,904

today,
15 homes sold since Jan 1 thru today at an average of $608,733
(almost 19% higher than in 2010)

So the news is good coming right out of the box.  List prices are down nicely  from 2 years ago (many sellers have, apparently, finally, gotten it) and sold prices are up. At least for the moment. caveat caveat - In the short term sold prices can and do jump up and down all over the place – skewed as they are by one or two big sales - so I’d suggest holding off on breaking out the cheer, the good stuff anyway, until we’ve seen 3 or more months worth of sales data. But hey, short term or not,  it’s better to be up than down and we could all use a little good news.

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after 36 years it ends up a short sale

In Skyline Country Club, 6840 N Saint Andrews Drive has gone to contract as a short sale -now listed at $499,000 ($113/sf) - though not before doing the same old dance as everyone and trying for $849,000 and $699,000 and so on.

And sadder still, the listing says, Owners have lived in home for 36yrs and raised
5 children…

And in the only colonial I’ve ever seen in the foothills,

6840 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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2 big sales today in Ventana

6725 N Hole In The Wall Way sold today for $1,700,000, which, at 3871 sf, works out to a tidy $439/sf.

That’s the highest $$/sf sale in the foothills since July 2009 – when many of us (foolishly) thought the worst was over. 

And, coincidentally,  it also sold for $1.7 exactly 4 years ago, in January 2008. No kidding.
No doubt, it’s a million-seven house.
PS- it sold pretty quick too, listed in mid September it was in contract on 12/14.

see it here > 6725 N Hole In The Wall Way Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

And down the road apiece and out of the Mountain Estates in the lower elevations of Ventana, 
6030 N Desert Sun Court also sold today, and, would you believe it, it also sold for $1.7.

ha-ha, just kidding, it sold for $1,335,000 ($277/sf) from a $1,449,900 list.  
And it’s about time too, it’s been at it since February 2010 when it was listed at $1,750,000.

Why did it take so long. With such a good looking house, in a great location, with a wonderful backyard - as the listing says “arguably the most expansive and striking back yard in all of Ventana Estates.” No kidding. And also with some of the tallest ceilings I’ve seen. I think the issue here was price price price, but also the views. They’re nice, very pleasant, but without the dramatic mountain or city views that many/most buyers want and expect at this price range. 

6030 N Desert Sun Court Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

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hurry

Listed just 4 days ago, 5862 E Paseo Cimarron is already in contract. List price $440,000 ($162/sf), in Cimarron. (listed by Long Realty)

For homes listed at up to about $600,000 the Tucson Foothills real estate market continues to barrel along.

Here’s why I say that; 
There are 192 homes for sale from $0 to $599,999
and there are 70 in contract,
and 91 sold in the last 3 months, indicating that at the current rate of sales there is a 6 month supply of homes in this price range – a balanced supply.

But the prior 3 month period included the Thanksgiving – Christmas  and New Year holidays – traditionally a very slow time. As opposed to the upcoming 4 or 5 months which, traditionally, is the busiest time for Tucson Foothills home sales. We’ll see.

UPDATE: there were a couple of typos in the data as originally  presented on this post. (# of homes sold showed as 212, rather than 91, which caused the months supply to be miscalculated – apologies for the error)

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spec homes, then and now

Once upon a time they were the darlings of Tucson foothills real estate but, more recently, many spec homes have ended up as huge anchors around the necks of their builders/investors and lenders too.

On the other hand a new crop of specs have come along in just the last year (a mini crop really) that are starkly different, and have been more successfully received, than their predecessors.

It looks like 8 spec homes sold in 2011 from $925,000 to $2,325,000.
Let’s see how they fared,

First the new crop – more modestly sized and appointed and priced accordingly, than the old crop, and with none venturing into the 2, 3 and 4 million $$$ arena. And the $/sf costs, in the low $200’s - at that price, buyers would run, not walk, for a nice new home in the foothills.
And in fact they did.

6520 N CALLE DE LA LLUVIA – first listed @ $989,000 Feb/2011 – sold $925,000 ($218/sf) Dec/2011. Anchors Away!

6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place – first listed @ $1,095,000 March/2011 – sold $950,000 ($199/sf) Dec 2011, no pain and suffering here,

5201 N CIRCULO SOBRIO – first listed @ $1,400,000 Sept/2011 – sold $1,400,000 ($233/sf) Sept/2011, talk about a quick sale.

And now the old crop. You know, the specs that were built on a wish and a prayer for a market that never quite materialized, and ended up selling in yet a very different market that, unfortunately, did materialize. And that continues to rear its ugly head to this day.

2123 E Sentry Ridge Court – first listed @ $2,750,000 Nov/2007 – sold $1,517,250 ($249/sf) Jan/2011. Yes, 3 long years to end up with a million-two less than planned – but worse yet, imagine the 3 year carrying costs for this behemoth.

Likewise with 7828 N Ancient Indian Drive – first listed @$3,295,000 ($447/sf) Jan/2010 – sold $1,660,500 ($223/sf) Mar/2011 – but this one never really had a chance because the party was so over by Jan 2010.  (sold as a foreclosure)

And the bell of the ball - 7454 N Secret Canyon – first listed @ $5,000,000 ($722/sf) Mar/2009 – sold $1,850,000 ($267/sf) May/2011. What’s there to say. (sold as a foreclosure)

Straddling the middle ground - 6101 N Paseo Zaldivar – first listed @ $2,150,000($362/sf) Jan/2011 - sold $1,850,000 ($312/sf) June/2011, snuck in under the wire.

And the best for last - 2304 E Sentry Ridge Court – a very special house- beautifully built, absolutely gorgeous, worth $3.5 - 4 million, but not in this market.
First listed @ $4,950,000 ($639/sf) Jan/2010  – sold Dec/2011 $2,325,000 ($300/sf).  
**Even though it ended up ‘behaving’ just like a spec home, I’m not absolutely sure that it was planned as a spec from the get-go. It is possible that listing it was due to something else entirely, a reversal of fortune, a change of heart, who knows. But somewhere along the way money did become an issue because it sold as a short sale.

see them here > the new crop, the old crop <

Next I’ll pull together the leftovers, the specs still for sale ,

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in a quick turnaround, prices in Pinnacle Ridge are now on the rise

Yesterday I wrote about the measly sale prices of the three homes that sold recently in Pinnacle Ridge - they went for $162/sf, $157/sf and $136/sf – $572,500, $700,000, $605,000. And that’s it, that’s everything sold in there in the last 6 months.

Until today. Another home that was in contract is now reported just sold, but this one topped the charts at $765,000 ($216/sf) – a hefty 33% higher than the next highest $/sf sale price. How did they manage that. And, the big question, how did the appraiser manage to bring the appraisal in at sale price.

6358 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

And not that it matters, because these days lenders look back only 3 months for comparable sales, but for all of 2011, this $765k sale is the 2nd highest priced sale in Pinnacle Ridge
(it was nosed out of 1st place by a $785k sale @ $222/sf) but that was in April.
Ancient history to an appraiser.

(the $765k sale was off a $779k list price, which had been reduced from $850k when it started out in May, 2011)

One thing is for sure, this is a ray of light for the three homes that remain for sale.

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another one bites the dust in Pinnacle Ridge

Originally listed at $750,000, 6376 N Pinnacle Ridge in the Pinnacle Ridge/aka Paloma Canyon subdivision, sold today (as a normal sale) for $572,500 ($162/sf). This is the 3rd sale in there in 6 months.

The other two - 4311 E Pinnacle Ridge Place sold for $1,135,000 in 2006 and for $700,000 ($157/sf), as a short sale, in October. And right up the street, 6325 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive, sold for $1,100,000 in 2006 and for $605,000 ($136/sf), as a REO, also in October.

See them here > sold in Pinnacle Ridge <

There are 2 homes in contract and 3 remain for sale in Pinnacle Ridge.

This may seem pretty bad, and it is, but there was a time a couple of years ago when nothing was selling in Pinnacle Ridge. Why, because sellers were holding out for prices that were
long-gone and buyers weren’t budging. At least now we’re pretty much past that madness.

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the gap between list and sold prices

Yesterday I mentioned that the average list price of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills far exceeds the average sold price of the homes that sell – i.e., avg list is currently $850,350 while the average sold is $530,096 – 37% less.

But with distress sales it’s a very different story. The gap exists, but it’s reversed – in this case the average sold price exceeds the average list price.
See here, there are 36 homes listed as short sales and foreclosures –
with an average list price of $398,421.

And coincidentally, 36 short sale and foreclosure homes sold in the last 3 months –  for an average of $445,019 – almost 12% more

No wonder short sales and foreclosures are selling like hot cakes.

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the envelope, please

2011
627 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills for an average/median of
$477,760/$387,500 @ $160/sf.

vs.

2010,
586 sold for an average/median of $501,499/$408,750 @ $170/sf

vs.

2009
532 sold for an average/median of $535,242/$432,500 @ $183/sf

vs.

2008
530 sold for an average/median of $612,257/$515,000 @ $ $212/sf

vs.

2007
621 sold for an average/median of $676,151/$540,000 @ $236/sf

Sales in 2011 were up about 6% & prices down about 6%  vs. 2010.
And with 627 sold, sales are back to where they were in 2007 – but at prices that are back to where they were in 03 – 04.  Also, notice that the biggest price drops were from 07 to 08 and 08 to 09. Since then the decline has slowed dramatically.

Heading into 2012 there are (just) 342 single family homes for sale in the Foothills – not quite
7 months inventory based on 2011 sales - but they’re listed at an average/median of
$850,350/$549,000 @ $215/sf – which is way higher than recent sold prices -  ie, December $530,096/$390,000 @ $154/sf.

And much of that imbalance is due to the many high-end listings that linger on the market at list prices that haven’t been achieved in years, if ever, in the Tucson Foothills.
So I wonder, will this be a year of setting record high home prices in the Foothills, or will it be a year when ultra-high-priced homes continue to succumb to the forces of the market as we know it.

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a spec home sells

Back in March when 6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place was listed I said, “You’d think that anyone thinking about building specs these days should first have their head examined. But if you can do it for this price, make a decent product, and still make a buck, then go for it”

I have no idea if they made a buck or not but Sutherland Ridge did sell today. It went for $950,000 ($198/sf) off a $999,000 list price, reduced from the $1,095,000 it was listed for in March. I have to wonder though, at $198/sf, can you buy the lot (they paid $245k for it) prep the lot, build this house, finance the whole deal, pay commissions and closing costs and whatnot and still make enough to make it worthwhile?

Or maybe they figured that it was such a good deal at the original list - $1,095,000 - that it would sell at or very close to that, or maybe even over list. I wouldn’t have disagreed.
That seemed possible back then, but that was March and things were looking up in March.
  

6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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psst!, wanna sell your house really fast

Just do what they did over at 4625 N Placita Roca Blanca in Cat 10.

In 2007 they paid $2,595,000 for it and they listed it yesterday for $1,595,000 – 38% less. 
It was under contract for more than list price before the ink was dry on the listing agreement.
(and it’s not a short sale or foreclosure either)

4625 N Placita Roca Blanca Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Despite the woes of the high-end market – mostly because most of what is for sale is just more $$$ than buyers are willing to pay - it’s no secret there are high-end buyers waiting patiently for a deal to come along. And when one does, they pounce. That’s right pounce, because, while there are plenty of high end homes for sale, really well-priced high end homes are in very short supply in the Tucson Foothills. And once they’re gone, they’re gone.

Just recently we saw 1682 E Sahuaro Blossom Place in Pima Canyon, listed years ago at $4.2mil and more recently at $2.3ml and still go nowhere. Until it was relisted at $1.075 and got 9 offers in 3 days and sold for $229,000 over list.

Then 2304 E Sentry Ridge Court, also in PC, after almost 2 years at $4.9 and $4.250, dropped to $2.250 and had at least 3 offers in 2 days and also sold for over list.

7808 N ANCIENT INDIAN Drive struggled along since 2005 priced from $3.799 to $2.999mil and went nowhere, until it dropped to $1.990 and quickly went to contract.
This is what high-end, discretionary purchase, don’t have to have it, buyers want.

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a big contract for La Paloma

3208 E Via Palomita is in contract.
First listed for $3,200,000 in December 2008 it quickly dropped to $2,785,000 then $2,495,000, etc. until it settled in last month at the magic number> $1,939,000 ($310/sf) and BINGO!
3208 E Via Palomita Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc)

This is a John Kline built house – with all the attention to top quality construction,
details and finishes that he’s known for. 

So if it’s such a great house what took so long? Well aside from the price - and all the economic/confidence issues bearing down – how about the fact that it’s a 2 story. 
2 story homes are less popular than 1 story homes here in the Foothills, they just are. And I’m sure that was a hurdle.

In any case, if this closes above $1,640,000  it’ll be the biggest sale in La P since July 09.

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Case-Shiller doesn’t cover the Tucson Foothills

In their latest report S&P/Case-Shiller says Home prices down for 6th straight month in the 20 markets they track.
From CNNMoney.com

 

Meanwhile, here in the Tucson foothills home prices are Up one month and Down the next.
But overall, the Down months are wiping out the gains from the Up months with the result that prices are Down - from 6 months ago, from last year, from 2 years ago, from …

And though it’s not over yet, it looks as if we’re going to end on a high note with December sale prices breaking records for this year. And though it’s due to an unusual number of high-end sales closing this month –including that big short sale in PC for $2.325 - that’s how it goes.
Up one month Down the next.

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heading into the stretch

In a few days it’ll all be history and we’ll tally the numbers for foothills home sales for 2011 vs prior years

But for now a heads up, sales, prices, etc, from Jan 1 thru today (Dec 26) for 2010 vs 2011.

2010
577 single family homes sold for $504,518/$413,236 – average/median @ $170/sf

vs.

2011
614 single family homes sold for $479,621/$389,000 – average/median @ $160/sf

So sales are up about 6% from last year while prices are down about 5% average/6% median & nearly 6% @ $/sf.

But this is the second consecutive year, since 2008, of increased home sales in the foothills - (that’s thru today 12/26)

2007 – 617 sold
2008 – 521 sold
2009 – 521 (yep, not a typo, weird but true, exactly the same as 08)
2010 – 577 
2011 – 614 (so we’re back to pre-Lehman, 2007 sales #’s – YEAH! but at prices that were    last seen in 2004)

And while sales of homes listed at a million $$+ took a big hit in 08, and a less-big-hit in 09, they’ve held steady since then. The not-so-new-news-here, though, is these homes are now selling, and only selling, at sharply reduced prices. At prices that, when offered a few years ago, were routinely scoffed at, when, ‘they’ll just wait’, they don’t need to sell’, was the popular refrain. 
million+ sales/year
2007 - 95 sold
2008 – 56 sold
2009 – 46 sold
2010 – 45 sold
2011 – 49 sold

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it’s all happening on Desert Sun Court

Last week I mentioned that 6030 N Desert Sun Court in Ventana had gone contract in one day > a very fast contract, < and now its neighbor, 6070 N Desert Sun Court, is also in contract - listed in mid September at $1,199,000 ($261/sf)

6070 N Desert Sun Court , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

And aside from just one other home in contract and 34 for sale in Ventana – but none (darn it) on Desert Sun Court – that’s about it

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the perils of overpricing

7808 N Ancient Indian Dr in Pima Canyon sold yesterday for $1,600,000. And it wasn’t a short sale or a REO. That’s the good news.

The not so good news is that the sellers paid $2,650,000 for it in March 05.
But here’s the kicker, just 6 months later they listed it for $3,899,000.
Hard to believe but true. I’d love to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation, you know, the one where someone convinced someone else that the house would fetch more than a million $$’s more than what it just sold for – not more than one person could have come to the table with that bright idea.

net-net, it’s been on the market all this time, and in late May finally got down to $1,990,000 and went to contract in mid July and closed yesterday. So instead of making a quick million they spent 6 long years losing it.

7808 N ANCIENT INDIAN Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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a very fast contract,

maybe even a record of some sort. In Ventana CC, 6030 N Desert Sun Court was listed this morning for $1,449,900 ($277/sf) and went to contract this afternoon. Maybe it was the tall ceilings, this place has them in spades.

Oddly enough, Desert Sun Court had been listed before (by a different agent) and in late August the listing was canceled after 18 months on the market – and then it was relisted this morning with a different agent, and the rest is history, though a very very short history. 
OUCH! That must hurt.

And it was just a matter of timing - the right house and buyer crossing paths - and has noting to do with the first listing, no. The first listing was absolutely top notch professionally done.
dems da breaks,

6030 N Desert Sun Court , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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you make your money when you buy

That’s the old saying, and of course it’s true. Overpay when you buy and you don’t have much chance of doing well when you sell. And in this market, forget about it.

And they stepped in that one big-time over at 6420 N Miramist Way.
It sold for $838,000 in May 2004 - when the market was roaring along and going higher every day – OK, that was the market back then.
But then it sold again in June 2010 for $850,000 – that’s after 2+ years into a serious downturn and going nowhere but down – for $850,000, the sellers must have been dancing in the aisles – downturn, what downturn.

But the love affair was short-lived and those buyers listed it 9 months later - in March 2011 -  for $879,000, hoping, I suppose, that an uninformed and carefree spender would come along and do what they did. Didn’t happen. So it was reduced and reduced until it hit $699,000 and went to contract in late September and closed today for $690,000 as a short sale.

6420 N Miramist Way , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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a trickle of New Listings

With our high season for home buying right around the corner (we hope) I’ve been looking forward to seeing a slew of new listings come to market. But so far it’s barely a trickle.

Yesterday I mentioned a new listing in Ventana CC –  and today there’s one in Ventana Reserve (different from Ventana CC) and another one on a hilltop (far) off of Hacienda del Sol Rd in Catalina Foothills Estates NO. 2.

But so far that’s it. And we need more new listings, particularly at the upper-end –  because so much of what is already listed has been picked over and still failed to find a buyer. 
So we need fresh, shiny new listings.

I think the potential is there to have at least a moderately successful season in 2012, but only if there are attractive, well priced homes for buyers to choose from.

6042 N Indian Trail Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

4521 N Hacienda Del Sol Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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to each his own

6520 N CALLE DE LA LLUVIA, a spec home in Alta Vista, sold yesterday for $925,000 off a $919,000 list price. I’m guessing the bump in price was due to some additional amenity or feature or something that the buyers requested, and not due to a mini bidding war.

Calle de LLuvia is in that tiny northeast section of Alta Vista that is zoned CR-4, allowing multiple homes/acre – rather than the majority of Alta Vista that’s zoned CR-1. This lot is 10,000 sf, just under a quarter acre.

And as you can see it’s a tight fit with the homes butting right up to the lot lines – the X is where this house is parked,

but as they used to say in Detroit, there’s a butt for every seat

6520 N CALLE DE LA LLUVIA Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

Meanwhile, they’re kicking butt in Pima Canyon,
7501 N Whisper Canyon Place, on 1.3 acres, sold yesterday after dangling the for sale sign for just 8 days. First time on the market, Whisper Cyn was listed at $1,349,000 and sold for $1,200,000 ($292/sf). This is the 6th sale in PC since mid June (the off season) + there are three homes in contract.
7501 N Whisper Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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the biggest sale of the year

In Pima Canyon 2304 E Sentry Ridge Court sold today for $2,325,000 ($300/sf) from a $2,250,000 list price. Not only did it go for $75k over list, but it’s also the highest priced sale
in the Foothills this year. And, ironically, it’s a short sale.

Soon after it went to contract I wrote about it >  HERE

In that post I mentioned that I represented buyers who made a $2 million cash offer and we came in 2nd. They, the owner and, really, the lender, just accepted the other offer without giving us a shot at a counter offer – my clients and me, we were pretty pissed. But given the amount of the higher offer – which I didn’t know at the time - I can see how they might just want to take the money and run rather than risk alienating that buyer by dilly dallying with a counter offer when they had a bird in hand. But still, that’s a tough one to lose.

the sold listing > 2304 E Sentry Ridge Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills, 12/14/2011

46 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days and there are 346 for sale (the lowest inventory in years)

36 sold from $0 to $599,999 (199 for sale)

5 from $600,000 to $999,999 (74 for sale)

4 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 (36 for sale)

1 from $1.5 to $1,999,999 (18 for sale)

nothing from $2.0 & up (19 for sale), (though there is one house in contract for over $2.0 that will close escrow tomorrow - the first $2.0+ sale since July and only the 2nd sale all year at $2.0 or more)

average/median sold price for the group was $461,961/$367,500

As always months of inventory is all over the lot; overall for the Foothills it’s 7.5 months.
But see how it breaks out by price range;

from $0 to $599k there is a 5 1/2 month supply 
while at $600 to $999k it’s 15 months  (way up from last month)

and at $1.0 to $1.499 were looking at 9 months of inventory (way down from last month)
at $1.5 to $1.999 it’s 18 months
and at $2.0 & up there haven’t been any sales

Sales and prices during this 30 day period were different from the previous 30 days, not better, not worse, just different'. See for yourself > supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

One thing’s for sure, this coming January thru June  – our in-season - will be an interesting one for upper-end home sales. The lower end is doing well and has been for some time, and though the middle is still struggling somewhat it is, I believe, not far from turning the corner on sales. And even at $1.0 to $1.3mil or so, sales have shown some real life lately. 

It’s at $1.5 that things really start to fall apart, and the higher you go the worse it gets.
And at the $1.5 to about $4,000,000 there are spec homes for sale, spec homes that have been on the market for a long time, yet no one has shown any interest in them.
That can’t go on forever. It wouldn’t surprise me if this season is the last hurrah.

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bigger isn’t always better

In La Paloma  6213 N Placita Pajaro sold for $975,000 ($242/sf) in 2007.

Biting the bullet the owners listed it this past September for $739,900, then reduced it to $724,900 ($180/sf) and still it didn’t sell, and today it was pulled from the market. And it’s not a short sale or foreclosure. And at that price I’m not sure why it didn’t sell, but at 4033 sf it is the largest floor plan in this newer La P community and the largest to sell thru the MLS.

AF Sterling developed the street, Placita Pajaro – yes it’s just one very long street - on the north side of La Paloma around 2003 or 04 and then built it out with one and two story homes from about 2400 to 4000 sf. And they sold like crazy. Literally. Many of them as 2nd homes, but also to full-time residents.

And though prices have taken a hit, the homes along Pla Pajaro have continued to sell very well – there are none for sale. Maybe this one just needs more time. 

6213 N Placita Pajaro Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)