TheTucsonFoothills

CREDIT SUISSE Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents – March 2013

I’ve participated in this monthly survey for some years and have seen it drop from the giddy heights of the boom to the darkest days of the bust. And now, recently, the mood and expectations, as reported in the survey, are very much on the upswing.

Survey Methodology
Source: Credit Suisse
We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an understanding of the existing home market as crucial to homebuilders as it represents over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the new home market.

Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives, inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In February, we received responses from 850 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends, levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend.
______________________________________________________________________________

The report is for the entire Tucson market but as far as recent trends, and March in particular,
I think it’s quite accurate for the foothills as well.

**If you’re having trouble seeing the report clearly, just click the report and it will open full size in a new window**

 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

a one horse town

Tucson's Ryan Airfield faces closure of its contract air-traffic control tower in early April unless it can make a good case to regulators that keeping it open is in the national interest.

The Tucson Airport Authority has received a letter from federal regulators saying Ryan is among 189 smaller airports that face closure of their contract air-traffic control towers due to looming sequestration cuts.

From the Arizona Daily Star

Tower at Tucson's Ryan Airfield closer to shutdown

Local aviation officials have said that closing Ryan would jeopardize safety, noting that Ryan is a valuable reliever to Tucson International Airport and features advanced landing-approach technology. Without a tower, pilots will have to coordinate takeoffs and landings themselves via radio and visual contact.

And besides, having to actually drive to Fashion Square , what fun is that.

 

looking for a good rental house for 3 years

Recently I was contacted by a pilot with the Royal Netherlands Air Force  who will be the commanding officer of the Dutch F-16 flight training at the Tucson ANG for the coming 3 years, starting this July.

He wrote; “My wife and I will come and live in Tucson with our 4 boys (age 11, 10, 7 and 6), 2 dogs (child-friendly and well-behaved) and 2 cats.  We are looking for an unfurnished house to rent in the vicinity of Dodge & River Rd.(preferably within a 15 minutes driving distance)”

They’re looking for a 4 bedroom house with a large living room or family room, probably 3 baths or more, tiled or wood floors, no carpet, an enclosed yard, preferably with a pool, in a kid friendly neighborhood that is close to a park or other open area for recreation. Up to a maximum $2400/month with a 3 year lease.

If you have something that you think may work, or know someone who does, please send me the details and I’ll forward it to them. 

Officer Jones (not his real name) will be in Tucson from April 24th thru May 2nd to see the available homes. Thank you.

PS- I don’t do rentals and I’m not looking for a fee or commission of any kind, and I won’t be involved beyond trying to help them find a good house to rent.

for what it’s worth

For the last 5+ years I’ve participated in a monthly housing survey conducted by Credit Suisse that covers 47 markets across the country. In their own words here’s the methodology.

Survey Methodology
We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of
local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an
understanding of the existing home market as  crucial to homebuilders as it represents
over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the
new home market.
Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives,
inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In September, we received
responses from 900 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and
calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends,
levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend. 
_________________________________________________________________________

Over the last 5 years or more I’ve watched the results of the survey go from giddy and elated to cautious to worried and finally to downright grim. And then this year the feedback began to inch back up into positive territory. 

Here are the results from the September survey for Tucson.

Tucson, AZ
(1,438 single-family permits in 2011, 50th largest market in the country)
Traffic above expectations. Buyer traffic was above expectations in September, as our
traffic index came in at 61 (from 41 in August), above a neutral reading of 50 (readings
greater than 50 suggest traffic exceeded agents’ expectations). 44% of agents said traffic
was above expectations, 34% said it was in-line with expectations, and 22% said it was
below expectations.

Prices higher, incentives lower. Home prices increased in September, as our home
price index came in at 83 (from 67 in August), above a neutral reading of 50, suggesting
higher prices over the last  30 days (readings above 50 point to higher prices). 67% of
agents said prices were higher and 33% said they were unchanged. Meanwhile, incentives
were lower in September, as our incentive index came in at 61 (from 59 in August), above
a neutral reading of 50, with readings greater than 50 pointing to reduced incentives. 56%
of agents said incentives were unchanged, 33% said they were lower, and 11% said they
were higher.

Less time needed to sell a home in September. Our time to sell index came in at 89 in
September (from 77 in August), above a neutral reading of 50, pointing to a reduced time
to sell (readings above 50). 89% of agents said the time to sell a home decreased and
11% said the time to sell increased. We view the reduced time to sell as a positive
indicator for future pricing trends.

Comments from real estate agents:
■ “Low inventories have been creating urgency.”
■ “More and more buyers are afraid to get left out of a recovery in home prices.”

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

it’s good to keep an eye on what’s happening around you

That said, here are some highlights of residential sales (including single family, townhouse, condo, mobile homes, etc) for the entire Tucson Metro, for July.

And as you’ll see it appears that sales and prices in Tucson are on the mend.
And unlike the data I publish for the foothills, I did not break a sweat pulling this together,
I merely lifted it straight from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service monthly report. 

- The Median Sales Price held steady at $140,000 for the third month in a row now, and has increased 12% from July 2011.

- Total Sales Volume decreased by 6.72% from June, but is up 6.32% from last year at this time.

- Average Sales Price increased 4.11% from $174,793 in June to $181,978 in July.

- Average List Price increased 4.14% over June and 3.71% over July 2011

- Total Under Contract decreased by 2.66% since June but has increased 29.17% since last July

- Total Unit Sales decreased by 10.40% from June and increased 1.16% from July 2011

- New Listings saw an increase of 3.97% over June and 45.14% over July 2011

- Average Days on Market decreased again slightly to 67

- Active Listings increased from 3,474 in June to 3,477 in July. Last July Active Listings were 5,412

- Percentage of Cash Transactions in July were 33.33%

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

when it rains ….

And yet more upbeat real estate news, this time from today’s AZ Daily Star.

“Tucson is the best place in the country to buy a home right now, according to Realtor.com and Forbes magazine”

Realtor.com names city top market in nation, citing affordability, jobs

Tucson experiencing a boom in real estate investments

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

my how things change

Get this, Forbes ranks Tucson one of the best cities to buy a home. And Tucson came in # 1. The Best Cities to Buy a Home Right Now

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it’s not just in the foothills,

Here are some sales statistics for March from the Tucson Association of Realtors.
Keep in mind, these numbers are for the entire Tucson metro area and include single family homes, condos, townhomes and manufactured homes. And I think that’s it.

- Total Sales Volume increased significantly in March by 39.13% over February, and is up  21.96% from March 2011.

- Average Sales Price is up 2.21% from February.

- Average List Price increased from $171,723 in February to $173,890 in March.

- Under Contract increased 6.07% over February and 29.04% over March 2011.

- Total Unit Sales rose 36.11% over February are up 18.65% over March 2011.

the market is turning all across the greater Tucson area.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

we got off easy

I question the accuracy of it but, here it is,  Inside Tucson Business reports that Distressed sales dominated 80% of 2011 housing market  (in Tucson)

Was 2011 just one big year-long clearance sale? Due to an “over stock” of product and drastically reduced prices, about 12,800 homes sold last year, most of them in the distressed merchandise “bargain bin.”

“It’s reasonable that 80 percent of sales were distressed,” said housing analyst John Strobeck, owner of Bright Future Business Consultants.

In examining the data, Strobeck emphasized there is not a definitive process that pinpoints the exact number of distressed sales. However, there are various ways to dissect the data that results in a fair estimate.
__________________________________________________________________

I can’t speak for the methods used by John Strobeck and Roger Yohem, who wrote the article, but I went ahead and searched the Tucson MLS and pulled the sales for the Tucson Metro in 2011 and came up with 12,789 residential properties sold - that’s everything, single family, condo, town home, mobile homes and tree houses. Which meshes up nicely with the total number of homes sold as reported in the ITB article. But when I extract the distress sales
(both short & foreclosure & yes the MLS does report short sales) from the 12,789, it shows that 6887 were distress sales. And that’s nowhere near 80%, in fact it’s 54%. So who you gonna believe.

Anyway, re: we got off easy, in the Tucson Foothills distress sales (both short and foreclosure) made up just 20% of all singe family home sales made through the MLS in 2011.  Ok, but how about if we add everything to the mix - townhomes and mobile homes, condos & etc, – well, then it comes to 974 total sales, and 257 of them, or 26%, were distress sales.

we got off easy

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

sure prices have come down, but not for my house

First some fun reading from the LA Times - Bridging the great divide between home buyers and sellers. Many owners "have not adjusted their price expectations downward" to keep pace with local declines in property values after the mortgage bust, Engelhardt said, thereby contributing to the sharp divergence in their real estate visions compared with those of buyers”
It’s oddly comforting to hear they’re still having the same struggle as we are in la-la-land

Then a little closer to home the AZ Daily Star weighs in on how drastically home prices have dropped at the lowest end of the market >  1 in 3 homes here sell for under $100K < along with a very candid but not too comforting quote from Marshall Vest – our local star economist – who, after predicting that prices will stop falling in 2012, admits, "Of course that was my forecast last year, the year before that and the year before that."

WELCOME TO 2012!

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

the real estate market for the greater Tucson metro

While I generally don’t report on the overall Tucson market, Long Realty does and I thought you might be interested in a glimpse at how the rest of the market is doing.

The following is the summary from the latest Long Realty market report for sales activity in the overall Tucson metro. And also, unlike my reports which only include single family homes, the Long Realty reports also include townhomes and condos.

 As of October 2011 active inventory was 5,353, a 28% decrease from October 2010. There were 962 closings in October 2011, 28% above October 2010.

Months of Inventory was 5.6, down from 9.8 in October 2010. Median price of sold homes was $120,000 for the month of October 2011, down 14% from October 2010. The Tucson Market had 1,351 new properties under contract in October 2011, up 58% from October 2010.

Other than the slide in prices those are very encouraging numbers. Encouraging enough to indicate that the Tucson market may be on the rebound.

But just like here in the foothills, in order to have a real understanding of what is, and is not, selling, and the resulting months of inventory, the figures must be broken down and viewed by price range.

And as you’ll see in the following chart from Long, just like here in the foothills, the overall Tucson market is going great guns at the bottom price rungs – which, for the Tucson market, is up to about $250k -  but not so great beyond that.

I also like the following chart which  shows moi across the Tucson market by zip code – though it’s probably a bit mushy to read clearly.

It shows the foothills with 11.6 moi, one of the highest in the metro.
And the culprit is high priced homes. And while they’re not selling very well anywhere in the Tucson area, we have more of them in the foothills than our neighbors do.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

the bigger they are …

There’s an article in today’s AZ Daily Star about Saguaro Ranch, the ultra-luxe home community on the northwest side that went belly up before it got off the ground.

according to the article,
In June, Kennedy Funding and Anglo-American took over Saguaro Ranch (for $14 million) after filing a foreclosure notice on the property earlier this year.

Developers of the property in Marana, led by Stephen Phinny, had defaulted on a $50 million loan recorded in December 2005, documents filed with the Pima County Recorder's Office show.

Read all about it, from The Arizona Daily Star > Real estate: New Saguaro Ranch owners turn to Tucson developer <

The article goes on to state that lots sold for about $1 million when the market was at its peak and that they are now selling for $300,000. That’s bad enough, but the truth is that lots sold for much more than that. The mls shows 15 lots sold from $1.1 to $1.9, with multiple sales at $1.3, a couple at $1.5ish, a couple at $1.6+ at $1.7+ and the king of the hill at $1.9. That was in 2004 to 2007. And then the music stopped.

Saguaro Ranch was an extraordinary development that promised the peak of luxury. And even though it is nowhere near the foothills, because it was so extraordinary, I’d mentioned it > here > here & finally here.

thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

the latest foreclosure action

from Realtytrac, the foreclosure rate based on new filings during the month of August and expressed as a ratio of the housing market in each area;

USA – 1 in 570 homes
(that’s 1 foreclosure filing in August for every 570 homes)

AZ – 1 in 248

Pima County  - 1 in 349

Tucson, AZ – 1 in 369

Tucson Foothills (85718) – 1 in 964
(85750) – 1 in 825

the Northeast (85749) – 1 in 665

the Northwest
(85741) – 1 in 286
(85742) – 1 in 385
(85743) – 1 in 239
(85704) – 1 in 956
(85739) – 1 in 369
(85755) – no data, darn it

Marana, AZ – 1 in 181

and From CNNMoney.com
Foreclosures rise in August

The increase in default notices may signal that lenders are starting to finally push through foreclosure paperwork that was previously delayed by the "robo-signing" controversy last fall, said RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio.

"It also foreshadows more bank repossessions in the coming months as these new foreclosures make their way through the process," he said in a release.

thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

apples to apples

Yahoo finance, via something called 24/7 Wallstreet, has voted Tucson the sickest housing market in the country.

They based their conclusion on the very high homeowner & rental vacancy rate.  Period.

And far be it from me to defend the condition of the Tucson housing market – I don’t work the Tucson Metro, only the Foothills. But the methodology used in this analysis is not a reliable measure of the market – not for here in Tucson anyway.
Yet the conclusions they reach, wrongly, smear us all.

High vacancy rates go hand in hand with being a vacation seasonal/winter visitor resort destination - there are lots of vacation rental homes here in Tucson that are not occupied by their owners. Not ever. Why? Because they’re strictly vacation rental homes. Period. And rental homes are also vacant for a good portion of the year;  Why? because no one spends good money to come here when it’s 110, or even when it’s 99, and so vacation rental homes are not occupied all the time.
They just aren’t.

And if they’re including condos in their figures, forgetaboutit. There are oodles of condos in the foothills alone whose only purpose in life is to serve the seasonal/winter visitor market. The rest of the time they are vacant.

And if you are going to use vacancies as a criteria, how could you put Tucson up against Dayton Ohio and Indianapolis and Detroit. Please, tell me how many people vacation for months at a time – hence the need for vacation rental homes – in Detroit, or Dayton or Indianapolis or St Louis. Give me break.

The vacancies being measured in those cities are owner occupied homes that are no longer owner occupied because the owners have bailed out and moved on. Period. And while there is also plenty of that in Tucson, there is also a high percentage of homes whose only purpose is to serve the seasonal/winter visitor rental market. 

I think a far more accurate gauge of the market is simply supply and demand. You know, supply and demand as in homes for sale and homes sold. At this very moment there are 4174 homes for sale in the greater Tucson Metro and, Oscar, the envelope please,  984 sold in the last 30 days.

That, Mr & Ms 24/7 Wallstreet, equals a 4.24 month supply. And by anyone’s measure, that’s a very lean supply.

endlessly searching in the AZ Daily Star

I don’t get the Star, you know the paper in the morning, but every once in a while I do search it online for the occasional local real estate article that I’ve been told I should read.

Apparently there was one in Sunday’s paper about sharing ownership of luxury homes – as the new cure-all for the high-end market I suppose. Anyway I searched for it and searched for it on the Star web site and on Google, on Bing, and the Star web site again. But I couldn’t find anywhere. Nothing. Not hide nor hair of it. That’s really odd, I thought.

And then I saw that the Star only released the article in the print version of the paper. Yes, it’s true, it’s only available in the print version, not online. And apparently they do that with many articles from the paper. They’re only available in the actual paper. Really!

It’s an interesting strategy, ha-ha, for staying competitive in the 21st century. And I wish them luck with it too. I won’t, but I’m sure gazillions of others are going to rush out and subscribe to the Star for that occasional article they’d like to see that is only available in the  print edition.   I don’t get the Star.

for what it’s worth

Each month I participate in a survey of real estate agents across the country sponsored by Credit Suisse. The stated purpose is to help CS stay on top of the RE market and hopefully get a jump on where it may be headed. And now, after more than 4 years of mostly negative responses, for the first time there seems to be a glimmer of hope. Here’s the Tucson page from the latest survey results,

 

the Tucson real estate market is not one market

This afternoon a reader of this blog was kind enough to send me link to an article from the Huffington Post that pegged Tucson, AZ, along with 13 other cities, to be one of the worst performing housing markets for 2011. Who knows, maybe it will be.

But the article offered the following explanation for why these markets would likely be the worst performers in 2011;
Property prices could fall back to crash levels in some cities.

Despite signs of recovery, house prices are expected to fall by as much as 13 percent in some areas, thanks to a combination of high unemployment, and the large number of bank-owned homes, which often sell at much lower prices. (my emphasis)

I can’t speak to the issue of unemployment. I just don’t know and don’t have access to dependable data. But for the other half of their equation, distress sales - bank-owned homes & short sales – it’s worth having a look at the actual numbers.

Tucson is a large and diverse market. And viewed by its generally recognized areas – Northeast, Northwest, Extended Northwest, South, West, East and North – the percentage of homes that are for sale as distress sales –short sales & foreclosures – varies greatly. For single family homes for sale thru the Tucson Association of Realtors here are the actual numbers;

Northeast – 308 total homes for sale – 46, or 15% are distress sales

Northwest - 1,523 total homes for sale – 419, or 27.5% are distress sales

Extended Northwest – 39 total homes for sale – 11, or 28% are distress sales

South – 375 total homes for sale – 244, or 65% are distress sales

West – 274 total homes for sale – 100, or 36.5% are distress sales

East – 349 total homes for sale – 147,or 42% are distress sales

North(the foothills) – 483 total homes for sale – 42, or 8.7% are distress sales

Now does that look like one nice tidy uniform market to you?

So despite the fact that this information is coming from such august sources as The Huffington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many others who report on the Tucson market, beware, because they never, ever differentiate between the different markets within Tucson. They just glump them all together.
As if the Bronx, Park Slope in Brooklyn and Bed Stuy, Flushing Queens and Forest Hills, Hell’s kitchen (now gentrified to Clinton) and the upper east side of Manhattan were all one market. Misleading and absurd.

Read all about it if you must, but, please, then take the time to understand what’s really happening in the particular area of Tucson that interests you;
Worst Housing Markets for 2011: Clear Capital Markets

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

and yet more good news on the (Tucson) real estate front

From CNNMoney.com
Housing Markets; Best Recovery Bets

Tucson, AZ

 

It’s baffling how news of the real estate market could have turned so positive so quickly. Virtually overnight we’ve gone from a bust to a nicely recovering market.

Nevertheless, we’ll see. But I hope it’s all true and we return to a nice balanced market where buyers aren’t afraid to buy and sellers don’t risk losing their shirts in order to sell.  Stay tuned.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

oh the weather outside is …

RECORD COLD for Tucson

huh

Tucson

21° | 5°

a very sad day

and right in our own backyard

Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords shot- Vigil at Capitol

Arizona Rep. Giffords Shot in Tucson

Arizona congresswoman Giffords shot

Dr. Manny- Giffords Likely Faces Long Road to Recovery From Head Wound in Shooting

Former Rep. Grayson to Giffords- Gabby, we don't want to lose you

Is this really a good time to get into the real estate biz in Tucson

In the last 6 months or so at least three new real estate companies – companies that did not operate here previously - have set up shop in the Tucson area.

You may have seen their signs and advertising and hoopla – HomeSmart, Keller Williams & Russ Lyon, and maybe others that I haven’t noticed, have all opened for business recently and have been recruiting aggressively.

Just wondering.

far from the maddening crowd

Saguaro Ranch is about 20 miles northwest of the foothills, – so it is way beyond my usual real estate beat. But it’s also a very special place, and a stunning foreclosure that turned up in there caught my eye. So I thought it’s worth mentioning.

It’s at 13781 N Old Ranch House Road Marana, AZ 85658, and is listed for $1,950,000 ($272/sf). That’s practically a freebie in Saguaro Ranch $$$. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty 472203)

It sits on 4.2 acres/2008 built/masonry construction/7,182 sf/4 Beds/
6 Baths + 2 half baths/4 car/pool – spa, in Saguaro Ranch. The pima county appraiser rates the quality & condition of the house as Excellent. A rarely seen rating. 
psst – in 04 they paid $1,325,000, for the lot.

The four other homes for sale in Saguaro Ranch are, after some 7 figure price reductions, now asking $2,745,000 ($530/sf), $3,400,000 ($523/sf) and $3,950,000 ($543/sf).The fourth  listing is for a 2,184 sf house asking $379,500. Which, at that size & price doesn’t fit with the SR image, such as it was. So I don’t know the deal with that one.

And the MLS shows just one home sold in SR – everything sold in there were lots - a 2007 sale for $4,950,00($1,123/sf)  off a $5,950,000 list price. With SR’s PR machine spinning out of control, you can imagine the brouhaha when that sold.

But that was then, when all was on the upswing for Saguaro Ranch. And while the house on Old Ranch House Road looks like a great deal, and may well be, you’d have to investigate and consider the circumstances of Saguaro Ranch itself. Like so many others, it fell victim to the real estate bust and didn’t get off the ground as planned. Plus, as I understand it, the developer is bankrupt and being sued by numerous contractors and suppliers. And with just a fraction of the lots purchased and developed, the sense of community, along with the numerous planned amenities, that was the vision for Saguaro Ranch has yet to be realized. And with four homes for sale, and correct me if I’m wrong, but I count just 8 homes total in Saguaro Ranch, it does not inspire confidence.   

here, excerpts from the Saguaro Ranch web site –SaguaroRanch.net
that speak of the vision.

The American Southwest has been casting its spell on visitors for generations. It was during vacations to Tucson that Saguaro Ranch developer Stephen Phinny was drawn to the Saguaro Ranch site and subsequently spearheaded the purchase of the property commencing in June 2000. Today, the project, with its focus on environmental stewardship and artistic expression, has become Phinny’s passion.

The idyllic retreat is a timeless canvas colored by nature, a special place where residents can make their own magic and memories and where new traditions will take root. Residents, for example, will be asked to make a piece of pottery at the Ranch’s Art Barn to display on-property.

No longer a figment of Phinny’s imagination, Saguaro Ranch is breathing new life into the Tortolita Mountains northwest of Tucson. Of the site’s 1,035 acres, 80 percent will remain undisturbed, natural open space, ensuring that the environment is the carefully-preserved focus. In addition to luxury homesteads, the residential community will claim a wealth of world-class amenities and services. These include a guest ranch with casitas, a full-service spa, an indoor theater and an outdoor amphitheater and adjacent recording studio, fine dining and recreation such as a full-service horse ranch, art barn, swimming in three pools, tennis, cycling, bocce ball and much more.

Now you might read that and be a tad skeptical, or even think, what a crock. But in this case it’s true.

Despite it’s troubles, Saguaro Ranch is/was the most thoughtfully, carefully and beautifully developed super-luxe community that I’ve ever seen. And I hope it soon finds it’s way back and picks up where it left off.

here’s everything for sale in Saguaro Ranch, including the foreclosure, > Saguaro Ranch

thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills, or Saguaro Ranch, home

we want our Rappatoni

From all the agents I’ve spoken to, and I’ve spoken to many, feelings about the new flex mls system run the gamut from ‘Why the &$^&$%did we switch to this’ to ‘I hate it’. Beyond that there is very little disagreement. I work out of the Foothills office of Long Realty, the busiest, most productive real estate office in southern Arizona. And I’ve yet to meet one agent who is positive about the switch to flex. Not one. At best, everyone seems to be enduring it as if it were a punishment we somehow deserve.

And I’m fairly certain that other agents throughout Tucson are also unhappy with, or maybe even hate, flex.

If so, please, write in and let’s hear. A simple thumbs up or down will do. Let’s get something going. But if you’ve been complaining about flex, yet still refuse to step up and speak out, then forgetaboutit.

the new flexmls system

OK, it’s been 2+ weeks since we converted to flexmls.
How’s it going.

We want to hear everyone’s opinion, from both Realtors and the public. And hey, if you’ve got a gripe and you let us know, maybe we can get it fixed.

And if you haven’t tried it yet, the public search is at http://www.tarmls.com/

Then click Comments at the bottom of this post and fire away. 
Thank you.

regarding the new flex mls system that we are moving to

The Tucson Association of Realtors® has decided that we are to get a new MLS system. That is, we’re getting an entirely new operating system with a completely new interface for the main tool that we all use everyday to do our jobs.

And I’d like to get some feedback from Realtors® on what you think of the new flex mls system. Please, speak up, this is important.

Click Comments down below and tell it like it is. Thank you.

PS- I don’t like it and haven’t found anything about it to recommend it. Yet I’ve found quite a few things about it that don’t work and that I don’t like. Unfortunately, I don’t have any choice and neither do you. But maybe I’m missing something. I hope so.

So let’s hear from you Realtors® out there who, like it or not, will soon be using this new system come May 3rd.

in case you’re wondering

Now that I’m naming the names of the listing brokerage of homes I mention here, you’re probably beginning to notice that the majority of them are Long Realty listings. And in case you’re wondering why, here’s why.

At $800,000 and up, Long Realty’s share of the market is 67.1%. With the remaining 32.9% divided amongst all the other real estate brokerages in Tucson. (those figures are for 2009)

 

And since much of what I talk about is $800 and up, well, Long Realty is often involved.

And while we’re at it, I’m naming names because I’ve been asked to, in order to avoid violating one of those Realtor code of ethics things -

"Realtors shall not engage in any practice or take any action inconsistent with the exclusive representation or exclusive brokerage relationship agreements that other Realtors have with clients. 

and to properly identify the brokerage that has the listing and avoid leading people to believe that, let’s say, a Coldwell Banker listing is mine, when of course it’s not. None of them are. And not surprisingly, after some of the things I say here, who would have me.

just to be crystal clear

It has come to my attention that some readers of this blog may be under the impression that homes that I mention here are my listings.

In fact they are not. Please note, unless otherwise clearly stated that a listing is mine, I assure you, it is not. As a matter of fact, as of 12 midnight tonight, February 15, 2010, I do not represent any sellers and will, for the foreseeable future, only represent buyers of homes in the Tucson Foothills or anywhere else in the Tucson metro area.

Furthermore it is not, and never was, my intention to lead readers to believe that I am ‘advertising’ other agents listings on this blog.
I thought it was crystal clear, but apparently it is not, that my only purpose has been to provide information, along with my opinion, that may be helpful and useful to those who are interested in Tucson Foothills real estate and choose to read this blog. Be they buyers or sellers.

I apologize for any misunderstandings.

Please add your comments, point of view and criticism as you see fit.
I look forward to hearing all of it.

more thoughts on walking away from your home

"The government was encouraging people to buy, telling people that it was a good investment to buy. Real estate agents pushing people to buy, banks pushing people to buy," White said in an interview. "And then when the market collapses, the homeowner alone is left holding the bag and forced to bear the burden. And so I think we need to talk about the disproportionate burden that is falling on homeowners."

In The AZ Daily Star, Josh Brodesky has two good articles on the pros and cons of walking away from your home. They’re based on the controversial thoughts of University of Arizona law professor Brent T. White who offers a rationale for doing so.

Josh Brodesky: Maybe more need to walk away, prof says 
11/22/09

Real estate: Our readers weigh in on walking away from a home  11/29/09

turkey day

We had dinner at our friends Lillian and Volker’s - and a great time and a wonderful meal was had by all.

That’s Volker wielding the knife, which he does almost as well as he does selecting and pouring the vino.

But they’ve got a leg up because they own Roma Imports,
"Tucson's Best Loved Italian Grocery and Deli" - Tucson Weekly

if you haven’t been, you’re missing out> RomaImports.com

signs of real estate recovery weaken

According to two recent reports, one from the Federal Housing Finance Administration, the other from The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index, recovery in housing markets across much of the US, and particularly in Arizona, may be further off than previously thought.

From The New York Times
Home Prices May Be Nearing a New Dip

The housing market is confronting an abundance of inventory, high unemployment, fearful consumers and devastated family balance sheets.

“There is no clear, easy way out for housing,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo. “Contrary to my hopes, housing prices and the housing market in general will weaken again.”

He forecast a new decline in prices of as much as 10 percent,

And The Arizona Star  
Arizona left behind as US home prices start to strengthen

Home prices across the nation are beginning to recover. But not in Arizona.

New figures Tuesday from the Federal Housing Finance Administration found that the price of the average home sold in the United States rose more than 2 percent between the second and third quarters of this year. That's the first increase in more than two years.

But the figures for Arizona went the other direction, with the average home price dropping by more than 2 percent.
_________________________________________________________

I’ll bet that many home sellers, along with their agents, are counting the days until January and hoping, like praying for rain, that hordes of out of town home buyers, fat with cash, will descend on the foothills and make this nightmare go away. How likely is that.

selling ice to the Eskimos

no igloos, but otherwise, lots to choose from

Northwest – 94 for sale, 14 sold in 6 months = a 40+ month supply

Northeast – just 45 for sale, but just 2 sold, for a 135 month supply

Southeast – only 7 for sale but none sold, 0.

West – 9 for sale, none sold

North, the foothills – 117 for sale, 22 sold, for a rather lean 32 month supply

sleaze ball alert

I’ve gotten a couple of calls on my cell phone from some creep who claims to be from Progressive financial services. Says he’s calling to check the last four digits of my ss# to verify my identity so he can pass along whatever bs he’s pretending to peddle.

Don’t be caught off guard.

Next stop is the AZ attorney general’s office to report this sleaze.

my, how quickly things change

Read all about it, before it changes again

Long Term Outlook: Tucson among hottest home buyers markets

Or sit back and watch,

a look at the seamier side of real estate

Josh Brodesky covers it in two articles in The Arizona Daily Star

Taking a beating in real estate

&

Josh Brodesky: Long broker, client handcuffed in mix-up with sheriff deputies

psst, looking for a deal on a spec home

If you’re looking for a nice deal on new spec home and can’t find what you want in the foothills - because many of the specs have sold – check out Canyon Pass at Dove Mountain.

It’s a real schlep to get out there, about 20 miles from the Foothills, but once you do it’s incredibly gorgeous. Like nothing else in the Tucson area. It’s this giant and very dramatic bowl formed by the Tortolita mountains with homes built along the slopes and ridges.

And the selection of spec homes is almost obscene. 17 homes for sale at Canyon Pass and 14 of them appear to be new specs. And the 3 that are owner-occupied may be specs that the owners are living in while trying to sell.

And with just 4 sold in the last year, the mood out there must be grim and getting grimmer by the day.

30%, 40%, 50% off and more, here are the 4 that sold;

-14016 N Dove Canyon Pass, first listed $1,440,000 10/08– sold for $700,000 6/09

- 13905 N Horizon View Ln, listed at $2,590,000 2/07- sold for
$1,200,000 on 3/09

- 13920 N Copper Sunset Dr, first listed $2,900,000 2/08- sold for
$2,210,000 on 9/08 (closing 7 days after it all came tumbling down)

- 4502 W Hanging Rock Ct, first listed $3,350,000 1/09- sold for $2,600,000 on 6/09

And here’s a sample of those for sale with the biggest drops in original vs current asking price;

-14945 N Cush Canyon Pl was $2,250,000, is $950,000

-13964 N Copper Sunset Dr was $2,300,000, is $950,000

-15040 N Cush Cayton Pl was $2,395,000, is $999,000

-15185 N Gallery Overlook Pl, was $2,195,000, is $1,450,000

- 4138 W Cayton Mountain Dr, was $2,495,000, is $1,600,000

- and 4863 W Dove Nest Pl, on the market for 735 days gets the stickin’ to your guns award for not budging from it’s original $1,940,000 asking price.

- 4841 W Lone Dove Dr, was $2,750,000, is $1,980,000

- 14091 N Horizon View Ln, was $3,495,000, is $2,295,000

Three years ago when everything started to cave in I advised buyers, and it was obvious, that places like this, with lots of new construction and spec homes, would be the hardest hit. But I never thought it would get hit this hard, and apparently a lot others didn’t either.

See them all here> Canyon Pass at Dove Mountain
**link will expire on 9/14/09**

And not-a-one under contract at Canyon Pass.

Long Realty Market Report

The Summer ’09 Market Report Video features a recent TV interview with Rosey Koberlein talking about the state of the Tucson and Southern Arizona housing market. The video highlights recent increases in buyer activity and the balancing of market supply and demand.

Watch it here>

Or, if that video is on the fritz, here’s a link> http://www.longrealtyonline.com/videos/summer2009/

foreclosures, just for the record

Josh Brodsky of the Arizona Daily Star had an article the other day on foreclosures and how they’re effecting the values and appraisals of surrounding homes. > Josh Brodesky: Foreclosures factored into appraisals hit sellers hard <

The foreclosure figures in the article are for the entire Tucson market and, lest anyone assume they also apply to the Foothills, I thought I’d publish corresponding foreclosure figures for just the Foothills.

In the article;
For those keeping score, there is a huge difference in price — nearly $60,000 — between a foreclosure and a traditional resale.

The median price of a traditional re-sale in June was $178,000, according to real estate analyst John L. Strobeck.

The median price for a foreclosure? $120,000.
_______________________________________________________

In the Foothills;
The median price for a traditional re-sale in June was $465,000
and for a foreclosure it was $389,500 - a difference of $75,500 or about -16%.

(while in the Tucson market, the difference between $178,000 & $120,000 is -32.5%)
_______________________________________________________

In the article;

If you are trying to sell your home in this market, your biggest challenge probably isn't finding a willing buyer, but the foreclosure down the street.

Not only do you have to compete in price with it, but that foreclosure is going to factor into your appraisal as a comp, possibly scuttling a deal.

It makes a lot of sense to separate foreclosures out from the appraisal process, but here is the kicker: They make up roughly 30 percent of the sales in the Tucson market, so can you really ignore them?
________________________________________________________

In the Foothills, in June anyway,
foreclosures made up 8.3% of sales. 48 total sales, 4 were foreclosures.
________________________________________________________

And of the 493 homes currently for sale in the Foothills, just 10 are listed as foreclosures – 2%. But curiously, while they make up just 2% of listed homes, they made up 8.3% of sales in June.

In any case, so far, in the foreclosure department we’re doing much better than the overall Tucson market. Ho-Ho Ha-Ha!

**my figures are based on data I extracted from the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

a rising tide lifts all boats

Case-Shiller says,

For the fourth consecutive month, there was modest improvement in May in housing prices, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a closely watched measure of the market.

“It is very possible that years from now we will say that April 2009 was the trough in home prices,” S.& P.’s vice president for index services, Maureen Maitland, said.

And even though Case-Shiller does not include Tucson in it’s 20 city index, we’re affected by what goes on, if only because home owners able to sell there can then migrate and buy here.

From The New York Times, read all about it,
Slide in Home Prices Is Slowing Down, Index Shows

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

house in the Tucson Foothills: $600,000

 
_____________________________________________

Coverage on the front page of USA TODAY:
PRICELESS

Looking to live the simpler life? Look no further than Tucson.

That Tucson is home to the University of Arizona helped boost it to the top.

"It's quite an affordable city in part, but it also has a lot going on about it," she says. "There are a lot of ways to enjoy living there."

She adds that residents rave about the city's multicultural feel. "They just feel like it's one of those great melting pots."
______________________________________________

So says an article in today’s USA TODAY

Tucson is the top go-to place for simpler living, says AARP

Two weeks ago Businessweek chose Tucson as #1,
they’ll soon be beating down the doors, and if this keeps up, they may well be.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

who ya gonna believe

Every month I participate in a housing survey conducted by Credit Suisse that looks at 40 markets across the U.S.

Here are a few highlights from last months survey results of Tucson agents.

Tucson, AZ

Traffic falls below agents’ expectations
44% of agents said traffic was in line with expectations, 34% said it was below expectations and 22% said it was above expectations

Prices and incentives show signs of stabilization
62% of agents said prices were unchanged while 19% said they
declined sequentially and 19% said they increased

Length of time needed to sell a home increased – a negative indicator for future pricing trends
51% of agents said the length of time needed to sell a home was
unchanged from last month, 30% of agents said the time to sell was longer, and 19% said it was shorter
_____________________________________________________________________

 And for more on who ya gonna believe,
this just in,

 The Arizona Republic reports,
Tucson real-estate agents in fraud suit

‘A consumer fraud lawsuit has been filed against a group of Tucson real-estate agents, loan officers and real estate-related businesses accused of running a multimillion-dollar fraud scheme that led to 130 foreclosures.’

According to the story the  Defendants are:

• Andrew Silverstein, former Re/Max All Executives real-estate agent.

• VinLan Ventures.

• Re/Max All Executives. Vince Volpe, Re/Max All Executives.

• Tucson Mortgage: William "Bill" Anastapolous, owner of Tucson Mortgage. Thomas Piazza, Tucson Mortgage loan officer. Dave Klein, former Tucson Mortgage loan originator.

• WGA Enterprises LLC.

• Amaury Leon, Infinity Funding loan officer.

• Darren Breen, Red House Lending loan officer.

And the same story from our own Arizona Daily Star
Tucson real-estate agents in fraud suit

‘Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard has sued a group of Tucson real estate agents and businesses, alleging the group devised a three-pronged scheme using rent-to-own properties to defraud investors, lenders and home buyers.’
_______________________________________________________________

This doesn’t bode well for any of the defendants, but since Vince Volpe is, or was until recently, the big cheese, that is, the manager and broker for ReMax, this may present a new challenge to their PR and recruiting efforts. oh, and throw the book at the bums.

"Flat is good. Flat means we are bottoming out,"

that’s what Marshall Vest, the University of Arizona economist, had to say about Pima County home sales.

And then he said, "The increases (in sales) have primarily been in the metro Phoenix market. Home sales in Tucson really have not moved up strongly like what you have seen in Phoenix," University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest said. "The Tucson market did not get overheated. The prices did not get nearly as far out of line. We don't appear to have nearly the overhang of foreclosed houses here."

And Jay Butler, the real estate studies director at Arizona State University, said, Pima County "never really participated in the hyper-market. You were about ready to, but it ended, so you are lucky."

That all sounds pretty good- because I picked out all the good parts -  but read the whole article, and see if you’re not as confused as I am about what’s good and what’s not and why.

This is courtesy of an article in our very own AZ Daily Star,
 Some see signs of life in AZ home sales

see thefoothillsToday.com
to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

we'll do it our way

In a move to provide even less information, just when consumers want more - and  increasingly are getting it elsewhere,
the Tucson MLS has decided to remove the 'days on market' (DOM) and 'cumulative days on market' (CDOM) figures from a couple of key reports.

Agents use these reports to help themselves and their clients understand the market, as in the always asked, how long has that house been for sale. Oh you can still get your hands on this info, for the time being anyway, but instead of being easier to get, it's now clumsy and cumbersome and time consuming.

But despite that, this 'less is more' strategy appears to be catching on, at MLS anyway, because I hear they're now considering dropping the $/sf costs from the reports as well. Because apparently no one really looks at $/sf costs, isn't that right.

So when your agent is not able to readily supply this information remember, it's not they're doing, it's courtesy of the new thinking at the Tucson MLS.

Thinking that sounds eerily similar to what got the Big 3 to where they are today.

what do home buyers want

An article in today's New York Times offers some clues to the changed attitudes of home buyers and the resulting shift in emphasis in real estate ads. Hint, value is the new black.

And imagine, if this is happening in NYC, the high temple of haute, what might that say about the mind-set of buyers here in little old Tucson.

Adjectives Get Evicted

see thefoothillsToday.com
to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

is it still so true that 'all real estate is local'

For a few years now I've participated in a monthly real estate survey sponsored by Credit Suisse, and each month they email me the survey results which run about 60 pages. They survey real estate agents in 40 markets, including Tucson, and produce a report for each of those markets, in addition to an overall national report.

In the past I've usually found their summary of the national scene was, at best, a hit and miss resemblance to what was happening here in Tucson. That is, until about six or seven months ago when everything changed and the differences became fewer and, month after month, what was happening nationally began to increasingly mirror the Tucson market. Or vice-a-versa. 

And today, as I read the highlights of the latest national report, I was particularly struck by the similarities to the Tucson market.
And I'll bet those same conditions are prevalent in many markets throughout the country. Because everyone is affected by the lack of credit, the deteriorating economy, falling real estate prices, and the resulting loss of confidence. And those national conditions are taking precedence over local market conditions that, in the past, would have exerted more influence, positive or negative, over those markets.
As in the oft heard 'all real estate is local'.

And while Credit Suisse doesn't have a corner on being the bellwether of market conditions around the country - this stuff is available all over the web, but you have to hunt and peck for it - they survey the top 40 markets and package it so nice n' neat and tidy, that it's an at-a-glance look at conditions from sea to shining sea. And last but not least, let's not forget, it's based on the opinions of real estate agents. 

It's happening everywhere,
From the Credit Suisse National real estate market Summary;

Higher Traffic, But Extremely Price Sensitive

Traffic up again in January; economy leads to some caution, but buyers focus on lower prices and mortgage rates.

We’ve generally seen an up tick in traffic in January relative to
December, but believe it was more significant this year as a result of the attractive affordability. Most sales activity remains at the lower price points, with especially strong demand for foreclosures.

Homebuilders will need to adapt to compete with foreclosures or should expect limited orders.

There was, however, continued concern among buyers as to the prospects for the economy with buyers needing to think that they were getting a great “deal” before moving ahead with a purchase.

We do not expect prices to increase until we see significantly lower inventory levels and believe that the improving traffic is a function of these lower prices.

Our home listings (inventory) index declined to 43.5 from 48 in
December, with levels below 50 indicating rising inventory (which we would expect as inventory increases ahead of the Spring season)
______________________________________________________________

Until we turn a corner on what's ailing us, I don't care if you're in Boise or Birmingham, San Diego or St Louis, local markets conditions are going to take a back seat to the bigger mess we're in. So for now, I'd take the 'all real estate is local' adage with a grain of salt.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

my how things change

In May of 07 I wrote about the record price paid ($4,950,000) for a home in the ultra-luxe Saguaro Ranch development out in the boonies of the northwest side. Record Price for Tucson Home (and a creative title to boot)

Now less than two years later, the Arizona Daily Star reports on what may be the demise of this very ambitious project.

Luxury-home project is now a tunnel to nowhere

I hope they're able to pull through. But the current financial mess combined with negative pr, does not bode well for a big buck community that's dependent on the whims of, what are now, less well-off discretionary buyers.

"For the time being, now is probably the best time, most of us will ever see in our lifetime to buy a house," Hodges said.

yeah sure, what else is new.

Hodges by the way, is Rick Hodges, CEO of the Tucson Association of Realtors.

From KVOA.COM
The Status of Tucson Real Estate

not much real estate action today

Just one little new listing, one price reduction, and nothing under contract. Blame it on the weather, I do.  

   Sunny Tucson
Today      Wed        Thur

           
59°|45°   61°|40°   52°|31°

Unless you're from Minnesota, this is no one's idea of
fun in the sun.

active adult communities feel the pinch

The Wall Street Journal reports that the housing crunch has forced many active adult communities to consider lowering their age restrictions (generally 55 & up) in order to attract younger residents and stay afloat.

Retiree Havens Turn Younger to Combat the Housing Bust

'From Florida to Arizona, condos are sitting idle as potential buyers find themselves stuck, unable to sell their houses and relocate. Some residents are now considering the once unthinkable: letting younger people in -- a proposition that has pitted neighbor against neighbor.'

And though there's not much in the way of active adult communities in the Foothills, the Foothills are nevertheless very popular with retirees. And the predicament facing active adult communities  - condos are sitting idle as potential buyers find themselves stuck, unable to sell their houses and relocate - is to some extent the same predicament we find ourselves in here in the Foothills.

To give you an idea of what's happening in active adult in the Tucson area - A quick search of the Tucson MLS turned up 559 homes for sale (condos, town homes & single family) in active adult communities in and around Tucson. And 252 have sold in the last six months. Saddlebrooke on the northwest side and Green Valley, south of Tucson, are two of the more popular active adult areas.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

it was a good idea

Last Week Coldwell Banker announced a "10-Day Sales Event" on their listed homes. Prices were to be reduced by up to 10% for 10 days.
I mentioned it here>  10% off sale

It started on Friday October 10th and runs through Sunday October 19th. I thought it was a good idea that would get people's attention and hopefully move some homes. And that would help everyone, not just Coldwell Banker and their clients.

But looking at price reductions here in the Tucson Foothills I see just 6 Coldwell Banker listed homes that participated in this 10 day 10% off event. Not enough to make a difference I'm afraid, or to call it an event. Too bad, because there are still many homes here in the Tucson Foothills whose prices need to be adjusted to today's market conditions. And until they are, buyers will sit it out. 

As Jim Gillespie CEO of Coldwell Banker said, ... our research and discussions with our brokers and sales associates shows that in many markets sellers remain reluctant to list their homes at the proper prices necessary to attract buyers," You hit the nail on the head Jim.

This Coldwell Banker sale is a national event so I have no idea how it's doing in Boise or Brooklyn, but with very different conditions in different markets across the country, maybe this type thing makes more sense and would be more effective if it were handled locally.

What if, like Democrats and Republicans temporarily putting politics aside and reaching across the aisle to solve a crisis (well maybe that's not a good example, but you know what I mean), and this is a crisis, local real estate companies took the lead and worked together in a meaningful way to tackle the problem locally and help get homes selling again. It's that serious.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes