TheTucsonFoothills

then and now in the Tucson Foothills

Writing about home sales in the Tucson Foothills last February (what’s selling) I said;

in the last 30 days 56 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(6 foreclosures in that group)

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (274 remain for sale) = 6.5 months inventory
10 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (123 for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (89 for sale) = 22.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $483,914/$364,000/$164 sf

flash forward to today and,

in the last 30 days 53 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(and 6 foreclosures this year too) honest

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (195 remain for sale) = 4.6 months inventory
7 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (87 remain for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (74 remain for sale) = 18.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $476,781/$359,850/$164 sf

So déjà vu. Other than a few bucks here and a few bucks there the numbers are incredibly similar, if not identical, from then to now.

But what has changed in the last year, and it is significant, is the number of homes in contract & for sale last February vs. today.

Last Feb there were 484 single family homes for sale and 82 in contract -  
today there are 351 for sale and 139 in contract, see yesterday’s post > curious about what’s in contract 

That’s 27% fewer homes for sale along with a 69% increase in demand.
That’s not chickenfeed.

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curious about what’s in contract

Me too. Because looking at what’s in contract is the clearest sign of where the market is right now – and at what prices buyers and sellers are actively engaged in the market.

Overall, there are 139 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. And with 351 for sale, 139 in contract = 39% of the available inventory in contract. A very healthy number.
(Last month it was 105 in contract vs. 364 for sale for 28% of inventory in contract)

But also, as was true last month and has been for some time, most the action is still huddled at the lower end of the market. Though $600 to $999 has really perked up.

Here’s what it looks like by price range;

111 in contract at $0 to $599,999
    (with 190 for sale = 58% of available inventory in contract. that’s HUGE)

  19 at $600,000 to $999,999
     (with 87 for sale = 22% of inventory in contract)

    6 at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
      (32 for sale = 19% of inventory in contract)

    3 at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
      (21 for sale = 14% of inventory in contract)

    0 at $2,000,000 and up
      (21 for sale and nothing in contract = nothing)

Overall, and in 3 of the 5 price ranges, the ratio of homes in contract/homes for sale is stronger now than it was last month > what’s in contract < because demand has increased and supply has decreased and PS- we are at the lowest inventory in YEARS

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we’re bumping along at 2003 prices

In the 6 months from August 2003 to February 2004-
385 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $444,612/$360,000 at $156/sf

flash forward 8 years

To the 6 months from August 2011 to now, February 2012-
260 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $467,990/$361,000 at $155/sf

Want a more recent view – here’s what it looks like for the last 3 months

November 7, 2003 to February  7, 2004-
146 sold at average/median $479,965/$382,500 @ $163/sf

& now,

November 7, 2011 to today, February 7, 2012-
144 sold at average/median $494,792/$380,000 @ $158/sf

2003 prices!

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January home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Sales that close in January are hatched from deals that were made in Nov/Dec – and because people are having fun during the holidays, rather than buying homes, fewer deals are made. 
So January sales numbers are usually low. And this January is about par for the course – at least for the course as it’s been during these post boom years. ( for single family homes only –
# sold/month & the median sale price for that month))

January 2012
36 sold
median sale price - $354,925

January 2011
35 sold
median sale price - $375,500

January 2010
39 sold
median sale price - $400,000

January 2009
24 sold
median sale price - $410,500

January 2008
34 sold
median sale price - $510,000

January 2007
42 sold
median sale price -$520,000

January 2006
54 sold
median sale price - $594,500

January 2005
84 sold
median sale price - $457,750

January 2004
47 sold
median sale price - $380,000

January 2003
56 sold
median sale price - $315,409

Also - Judging market prices based on one months sales is not terribly accurate or dependable way to go about it – there just aren’t enough sales in any one month to be representative of the market.  But if you’re going to do it anyway, as I have here, median prices– rather than average prices (which are quickly skewed by one or two large sales) offer a more dependable view.

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2011 sales, at a glance

That’s for single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills through the Tucson Association of
Realtors®  MLS

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what’s in contract

looking at which homes are in contract offers a good indication of what’s happening in the market right now – of what homes and at what prices buyers and sellers are actively engaged in the market. 

Overall, there are 105 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. And with 364 for sale, 105 in contract equals 28% of the available inventory in contract. And that’s pretty good.
But as you’ll see, and which has been the case for some time, most the action is huddled at the lower end, with diminishing activity at higher price points.

Broken down by list prices, there are;

84 in contract at $0 to $599,999 
(201 remain for sale) is 42% of available inventory in contract. WOW!

12 at $600,000 to $999,999
(90 for sale) is 13% of available inventory in contract

6 at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
(36 for sale) is almost 17% of available inventory in contract

3 at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
(18 for sale) is almost 17% of available inventory in contract

0 (none) at $2,000,000 & UP 
(21 for sale) is a long dark tunnel

**the number of homes in contract as reported above is only accurate at the time I pulled the data. Late Sunday afternoon. That’s because the number of homes in contract is constantly changing, so what you see when you click the listings above may well be different than what I’ve reported. That’s due to additional homes going to contract, while others that are in contract pass all the hurdles and sell (and therefore are no longer in contract) while still others fail to pass all the hurdles and fall out of contract and go back on the market as active listings.

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how’s the high-end market doing

Let’s look at the numbers and see.
At $1 mil and up there are 75 homes listed for sale
(average list price $2,166,359) (none are distress sales, yeah!)

There are 10 in contract - 
(average list price $1,388,400) (2 distress sales)

And 13 sold in the last 3 months
(average sold price $1,350,154) (3 were distress sales)

With the current inventory and rate of sales, there is a 17+ month supply of homes at $1 mil and up – about 3X what is considered a normal or balanced market.

And then there’s this - the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average list price of those in contract by 56% – and the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average sold price of those sold by 60%.  Why, because for the most part,  buyers are choosing homes from the  low end of the high-end inventory. And not from the mid to high-end of the high-end inventory. Make sense?

So looking at it with eyes-wide-open, it’s clear the high-end continues to be a very unbalanced market that is heavily weighted in favor of buyers. Or at least it should be. 
But there are still quite a few home sellers who apparently don’t care about that stuff, you know, the facts.  

On the other hand we’ve recently entered our high season for home sales here in the Tucson Foothills – a hopeful time which runs January to May or June – when, presumably, there are more buyers looking for, and buying, high-end homes. A time when, if the market is going to improve,(a very big if) this is when it’s most likely to do it. Of course, unless another shoe drops somewhere in the world.

PS – since January 1st just 2 homes listed at $1 mil or more have gone to contract.

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the first 16 days

January 16, 2012

in January 2010 there were
455 homes for sale listed at an average of $948,615

today there are
354 for sale listed at an average of $865,779
(so 22% fewer homes for sale now  than then – and listed at almost 9% less)

and in January 2010
13 homes sold between Jan 1 and Jan 16 at an average of $512,904

today,
15 homes sold since Jan 1 thru today at an average of $608,733
(almost 19% higher than in 2010)

So the news is good coming right out of the box.  List prices are down nicely  from 2 years ago (many sellers have, apparently, finally, gotten it) and sold prices are up. At least for the moment. caveat caveat - In the short term sold prices can and do jump up and down all over the place – skewed as they are by one or two big sales - so I’d suggest holding off on breaking out the cheer, the good stuff anyway, until we’ve seen 3 or more months worth of sales data. But hey, short term or not,  it’s better to be up than down and we could all use a little good news.

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in a quick turnaround, prices in Pinnacle Ridge are now on the rise

Yesterday I wrote about the measly sale prices of the three homes that sold recently in Pinnacle Ridge - they went for $162/sf, $157/sf and $136/sf – $572,500, $700,000, $605,000. And that’s it, that’s everything sold in there in the last 6 months.

Until today. Another home that was in contract is now reported just sold, but this one topped the charts at $765,000 ($216/sf) – a hefty 33% higher than the next highest $/sf sale price. How did they manage that. And, the big question, how did the appraiser manage to bring the appraisal in at sale price.

6358 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

And not that it matters, because these days lenders look back only 3 months for comparable sales, but for all of 2011, this $765k sale is the 2nd highest priced sale in Pinnacle Ridge
(it was nosed out of 1st place by a $785k sale @ $222/sf) but that was in April.
Ancient history to an appraiser.

(the $765k sale was off a $779k list price, which had been reduced from $850k when it started out in May, 2011)

One thing is for sure, this is a ray of light for the three homes that remain for sale.

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the gap between list and sold prices

Yesterday I mentioned that the average list price of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills far exceeds the average sold price of the homes that sell – i.e., avg list is currently $850,350 while the average sold is $530,096 – 37% less.

But with distress sales it’s a very different story. The gap exists, but it’s reversed – in this case the average sold price exceeds the average list price.
See here, there are 36 homes listed as short sales and foreclosures –
with an average list price of $398,421.

And coincidentally, 36 short sale and foreclosure homes sold in the last 3 months –  for an average of $445,019 – almost 12% more

No wonder short sales and foreclosures are selling like hot cakes.

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the envelope, please

2011
627 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills for an average/median of
$477,760/$387,500 @ $160/sf.

vs.

2010,
586 sold for an average/median of $501,499/$408,750 @ $170/sf

vs.

2009
532 sold for an average/median of $535,242/$432,500 @ $183/sf

vs.

2008
530 sold for an average/median of $612,257/$515,000 @ $ $212/sf

vs.

2007
621 sold for an average/median of $676,151/$540,000 @ $236/sf

Sales in 2011 were up about 6% & prices down about 6%  vs. 2010.
And with 627 sold, sales are back to where they were in 2007 – but at prices that are back to where they were in 03 – 04.  Also, notice that the biggest price drops were from 07 to 08 and 08 to 09. Since then the decline has slowed dramatically.

Heading into 2012 there are (just) 342 single family homes for sale in the Foothills – not quite
7 months inventory based on 2011 sales - but they’re listed at an average/median of
$850,350/$549,000 @ $215/sf – which is way higher than recent sold prices -  ie, December $530,096/$390,000 @ $154/sf.

And much of that imbalance is due to the many high-end listings that linger on the market at list prices that haven’t been achieved in years, if ever, in the Tucson Foothills.
So I wonder, will this be a year of setting record high home prices in the Foothills, or will it be a year when ultra-high-priced homes continue to succumb to the forces of the market as we know it.

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Case-Shiller doesn’t cover the Tucson Foothills

In their latest report S&P/Case-Shiller says Home prices down for 6th straight month in the 20 markets they track.
From CNNMoney.com

 

Meanwhile, here in the Tucson foothills home prices are Up one month and Down the next.
But overall, the Down months are wiping out the gains from the Up months with the result that prices are Down - from 6 months ago, from last year, from 2 years ago, from …

And though it’s not over yet, it looks as if we’re going to end on a high note with December sale prices breaking records for this year. And though it’s due to an unusual number of high-end sales closing this month –including that big short sale in PC for $2.325 - that’s how it goes.
Up one month Down the next.

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heading into the stretch

In a few days it’ll all be history and we’ll tally the numbers for foothills home sales for 2011 vs prior years

But for now a heads up, sales, prices, etc, from Jan 1 thru today (Dec 26) for 2010 vs 2011.

2010
577 single family homes sold for $504,518/$413,236 – average/median @ $170/sf

vs.

2011
614 single family homes sold for $479,621/$389,000 – average/median @ $160/sf

So sales are up about 6% from last year while prices are down about 5% average/6% median & nearly 6% @ $/sf.

But this is the second consecutive year, since 2008, of increased home sales in the foothills - (that’s thru today 12/26)

2007 – 617 sold
2008 – 521 sold
2009 – 521 (yep, not a typo, weird but true, exactly the same as 08)
2010 – 577 
2011 – 614 (so we’re back to pre-Lehman, 2007 sales #’s – YEAH! but at prices that were    last seen in 2004)

And while sales of homes listed at a million $$+ took a big hit in 08, and a less-big-hit in 09, they’ve held steady since then. The not-so-new-news-here, though, is these homes are now selling, and only selling, at sharply reduced prices. At prices that, when offered a few years ago, were routinely scoffed at, when, ‘they’ll just wait’, they don’t need to sell’, was the popular refrain. 
million+ sales/year
2007 - 95 sold
2008 – 56 sold
2009 – 46 sold
2010 – 45 sold
2011 – 49 sold

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supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills, 12/14/2011

46 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days and there are 346 for sale (the lowest inventory in years)

36 sold from $0 to $599,999 (199 for sale)

5 from $600,000 to $999,999 (74 for sale)

4 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 (36 for sale)

1 from $1.5 to $1,999,999 (18 for sale)

nothing from $2.0 & up (19 for sale), (though there is one house in contract for over $2.0 that will close escrow tomorrow - the first $2.0+ sale since July and only the 2nd sale all year at $2.0 or more)

average/median sold price for the group was $461,961/$367,500

As always months of inventory is all over the lot; overall for the Foothills it’s 7.5 months.
But see how it breaks out by price range;

from $0 to $599k there is a 5 1/2 month supply 
while at $600 to $999k it’s 15 months  (way up from last month)

and at $1.0 to $1.499 were looking at 9 months of inventory (way down from last month)
at $1.5 to $1.999 it’s 18 months
and at $2.0 & up there haven’t been any sales

Sales and prices during this 30 day period were different from the previous 30 days, not better, not worse, just different'. See for yourself > supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

One thing’s for sure, this coming January thru June  – our in-season - will be an interesting one for upper-end home sales. The lower end is doing well and has been for some time, and though the middle is still struggling somewhat it is, I believe, not far from turning the corner on sales. And even at $1.0 to $1.3mil or so, sales have shown some real life lately. 

It’s at $1.5 that things really start to fall apart, and the higher you go the worse it gets.
And at the $1.5 to about $4,000,000 there are spec homes for sale, spec homes that have been on the market for a long time, yet no one has shown any interest in them.
That can’t go on forever. It wouldn’t surprise me if this season is the last hurrah.

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where are they selling at $1,000,000+

45 homes listed at $1,000,000+ have sold in the Tucson Foothills so far this year,

Alta Vista - 4
Canyon Ridge – 1
Canyons – 2
Catalina Foothills Estates 10 – 7
Catalina Foothills Estates (the old foothills) – 1
Cobblestone – 1
Cimarron – 1
Coronado Foothills Estates – 1
Finisterra – 1
La Puerta – 1
La Paloma – 1
Pima Canyon – 10
Sin Vacas – 1
Skyline Country Club – 4
Summit at Finger Rock – 2
Ventana Country Club – 5

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sales and prices this year

That’s for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills, 

 

blue is average prices/red is median

 

YTD- 568 homes have sold for an average/median of $473,088/$386,250

vs. the same period last year

531 homes sold for an average/median of $508,248/$415,000

So while sales have inched up, prices have gone down.
And I don’t know if it means anything but this is the reverse of what occurred as the boom was petering out in 06 and into 07 – back then, sales were plummeting yet prices continued to rise.

05 sales/prices – 989 sold/avg sold $618,192
06 sales/prices – 728 sold/avg sold $703,360
1st half 07 sales/prices – 356 sold/avg sold $707,772 (621 sold for the year, and prices did begin to fall after the mortgage meltdown hit in August)

Where we go from here is anyone’s guess. And I’m sure we’d all love to hear what your crystal ball is telling you.

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supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

45 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days
(368 for sale) 

31 from $0 to $599,999 (212 for sale)

12 from $600,000 to $999,999 (80 for sale)

2 from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 (41 for sale)

*nothing sold from $1.5 to $2.0 or from $2.0 & up (35 for sale)

average/median sold price for the group was $450,751/$384,000

Months of inventory continues to be a mixed bag; overall it’s about 8 months.
While from $0 to $599k there is barely a 7 month supply and at $600 to $999k it’s 6.5 months. That’s the good news.

At $1.0 to $1.5 were looking at 20 months of inventory. And with no sales at
$1.5 and up, it’s anybody’s guess how long it will take to unload all those luxurious homes.

One things for sure though, prices have fallen from where they were at this time last year – when 41 homes sold for an average/median of $506,283/$425,00 – that’s 11%  & 9.6% more than now.

And for you historians, today’s average/median sold prices are within a hairs breath of where they were at this time in 2003.

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paid $2,200,000 ten years ago and sold for $1,400,000 today

That’s at 7203 N Cloud Canyon Place, on the market since 2007 when it was listed for $3,250,000 and reduced and reduced until it reached $1.5 and sold today for the aforementioned $1,400,000 ($252/sf) - in the Canyons.

And while the sellers did pay $2.2 ($407/sf) for it in July 2001 it’s hard to believe that that was fair market value. The sellers who sold it them for $2.2 had purchased it exactly one year earlier, in July 2000, for $1,595,000 ($295/sf) – when it was brand new.

Can anyone make a case for it appreciating 38% from July 2000 to July 2001 –
if so I’d love to hear it. 

You’ve heard the old saying, you make (or lose) your money in real estate when you buy (not when you sell),

Today’s buyers, getting it for less than the  2000 price, they did well.

7203 N Cloud Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Also worth noting, this is only the second sale in the Canyons since July 2008 - 
and it’s also the first “normal” non-distress sale since 2008 - Cheers to that!
the one and only other sale was a foreclosure earlier this year.

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the real estate market for the greater Tucson metro

While I generally don’t report on the overall Tucson market, Long Realty does and I thought you might be interested in a glimpse at how the rest of the market is doing.

The following is the summary from the latest Long Realty market report for sales activity in the overall Tucson metro. And also, unlike my reports which only include single family homes, the Long Realty reports also include townhomes and condos.

 As of October 2011 active inventory was 5,353, a 28% decrease from October 2010. There were 962 closings in October 2011, 28% above October 2010.

Months of Inventory was 5.6, down from 9.8 in October 2010. Median price of sold homes was $120,000 for the month of October 2011, down 14% from October 2010. The Tucson Market had 1,351 new properties under contract in October 2011, up 58% from October 2010.

Other than the slide in prices those are very encouraging numbers. Encouraging enough to indicate that the Tucson market may be on the rebound.

But just like here in the foothills, in order to have a real understanding of what is, and is not, selling, and the resulting months of inventory, the figures must be broken down and viewed by price range.

And as you’ll see in the following chart from Long, just like here in the foothills, the overall Tucson market is going great guns at the bottom price rungs – which, for the Tucson market, is up to about $250k -  but not so great beyond that.

I also like the following chart which  shows moi across the Tucson market by zip code – though it’s probably a bit mushy to read clearly.

It shows the foothills with 11.6 moi, one of the highest in the metro.
And the culprit is high priced homes. And while they’re not selling very well anywhere in the Tucson area, we have more of them in the foothills than our neighbors do.

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still a large price gap for Tucson Foothills homes

For years now there’s been a large gap, an abyss really, between the average list price of all the homes for sale and the average list price of the homes that buyers are buying.

e.g., in January 2009 the homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills were listed at an average of $919,942 – while the homes that sold were listed at an average of $495,853 – that’s a 46% difference in list price between the overall market and the homes that buyers were choosing to buy.

and today, while list prices have come down quite a bit, 16% since 09, we’re still in the same old pickle. The homes for sale are listed at an average of $770,111 – but the homes that are selling are listed at an average of $462,095 – still 40% less than the price of the overall market.  So by and large, buyers are still ignoring the higher end.

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short sales and foreclosures- a growing influence in the Tucson Foothills market

Three years ago, in the 90 days from August 2008 to November 2008 a grand total of 9 homes sold as distress sales in the Tucson Foothills – 4 foreclosures and 5 short sales - and they topped out at $783,500 but with the bulk of them selling under $500k.

While in the 90 days prior to today, 35 homes sold as distress sales –
25 foreclosures and 10 short sales – and they topped out at $1,304,000, but still the bulk of them were under $500K.

Lifted from a blog post I did in November 08 > > short sales and foreclosures, how close to list price are they selling < very close, even then, much closer than normal sales,

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short sales & Reo’s are priced to sell

For homes in the Tucson Foothills listed at $500,000 & up and sold in the last 6 months;

-short sales & Reo’s sold for an average of 100.032% of list price 
while
-normal, non distress, sales sold for an average of 92.7% of list price 

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2006 home prices in the Tucson Foothills vs. today

On this day in 2006 the average & median sold price for homes sold in the previous 90 days was $703,850 & $570,000 from 141 single family home sales.

Today, the average & median sold price for homes sold in the past 90 days is $430,653 & $350,000 from 119 single family home sales.

That’s a 39% drop in average & 38% in median sold prices

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here’s the lowdown on the Tucson Foothills real estate market for October 2011

There are 364 single family homes for sale in the Foothills today,
with 33 sold in October and 86 homes currently in contract.

here’s what it looks like by price range,

Price	# for sale	# sold	# in Contract
$0 - $599	221	23	66
$600 – $999	71	8	9
$1.0 - $1.499	39	2	7
$1.5 – $1.999	16	0	2
$2.0 & up	17	0	2
totals	364	33	86

The average/median and $/sf sale prices for October are >
$468,317/$357,500 @ $152/sf. And the 33 that sold sold at an average of 93.7% of list price.   As compared to October 2010 > $484,361/$440,000 @$167/sf @95.6% of list price. 

 

Months of inventory (moi) is as follows;
foothills overall is 11 months (364 ÷ 33 = 11) which is up (a whopping) 3 months from last month (lower is  better) see > (a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market, 9/29/11)

And when broken down by price range, months of inventory is all over the lot;

$0 – $599 is 9.6 moi (this represents a sudden 50% increase from where this price range has been for some time now)

$600 – $999 is 8.9 moi (way down from last month)

$1.0 – $1.499 is 19 moi (way-way up from last month)

$1.5 – $1.999 the same as last month, no sales and therefore no way to measure months of inventory, let’s just say it’s going to take a while,

$2.0 & up, ditto

 

And finally, what was the impact of distress sales (short sales and foreclosures) on October sales;

> of the 364 homes for sale in the foothills just 9% are listed as distress sales, very small potatoes. 

> BUT, 33% of all the homes that sold were distress sales.
   AND 41% of the homes in contract are distress sales.

So, obviously, buyers love distress sales. Because, even with very limited availability, they’re eagerly snapping them up in numbers that are wildly disproportionate to their availability. Why, because after getting a taste of distress sale prices, they’re hooked. And it’s hard to go back to paying retail and, certainly, they have no taste whatsoever for homes that are still listed at yesterday’s prices. And we have more than a few of those, particularly at the upper-end where, not coincidentally, the market is at its worst.

And, coincidentally, get this;
33 homes also sold last October 2010, really, it must be an October thing, but only 4 of them (12%) were distress sales. In October 2009, 50 sold and 11 were distress sales, 22%.

For comparison here are last months numbers

Thanks for tuning in and let me know if I can help you.

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distress sales in the Greater Tucson area vs. in the Tucson Foothills

A report today from Long Realty pegs YTD distress sales (Reo & short sales) in the Greater Tucson area at 53.7% of total residential sales (including condos, townhomes & single family)

While for the Tucson Foothills (I pulled these numbers) (including condos, townhomes & single family) distress sales were about half that at 26.3% of total residential sales.

And for single family homes only in the Tucson Foothills distress sales were 19.6% of total sales.

We’ve gotten off relatively easy.

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million $$$ home sales over the years,

here’s what it looks like, for Tucson Foothills homes listed at $1million and up and sold each year between January 1st and October 11th,

in the $million + price range sales are down 63% from 2006 and, for now anyway,
do not appear to be showing many signs of life

 

vs.

Tucson Foothills homes listed from $0 to $999,999 and sold each year between the very same January 1st and October 11th,

while in the under a $million  price range sales are down just 4% from 2006, and growing. Yeah!

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most of what action there is, is from $190k to about $500k

Coming off a beautiful weekend, there’ve been 9 price reductions, 8 of which are at $290,000 to $399,900, then one at $849,000

5 new contracts, at $315,000 $349,000 $379,000, $475,000 and one biggie at $1,275,000 (in PC)

2 sales, at $190,000 and $297,861

and 5 new listings, 4 from $315,000 to $599,000 then one at $1,250,000 in Cat 10,

It’s worth noting that the contract in Pima Canyon was on a house that had been on the market for just over 2 months, and had never been listed before. And the contract before that in Pima Canyon (on 9/13) was on a house that had been on the market just 19 days, and also never before listed for sale.
Beginners luck, or the right house at the right price. I’m guessing it’s the latter.

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September

Here’s a look at the number of single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills during September of this year and, for comparison, during past Septembers.

year	# sold	avg/med sold $$	$/sf	avg DOM
2011	44	435,010/350,000	150	105
2010	44	466,171/363,000	155	118
2009	48	540,780/420,000	173	118
2008	30	525,549/485,000	194	133
2007	43	775,493/667,500	247	111

With the understandable exception of 2008, it’s pretty interesting how the number of homes sold during various Septembers is so consistent. If only that were true for prices over the years. The slide in avg & med sold prices since 2007 – which amounts to 44 & 47% -  is downright alarming.

But does that mean prices in the Tucson Foothills are down 44 & 47% – average/median - since 2007. No, not necessarily. It means they’re down 44 & 47% for this September vs September 2007.

September is just one month and the data from one month is too small and narrow and subject to too many short term spikes and drops in sales for any one month to be representative of where the market really is. This September obviously took the brunt of the overall weakening resulting from the market crash of early August.

But it certainly bears keeping an eye on from here on out.

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a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market, 9/29/11

There are 357 single family homes for sale in the Foothills today,
44 sold in the last 30 days and at the moment 77 are in contract.

here it is broken down by price range,

Price	# for sale	# sold	# in contract
$0 – $599	224	36	56
$600 – $999	67	4	13
$1.0 to $1.499	36	4	*6
$1.5 – $1.999	14	0	1
$2.0 & up	16	0	**1
	357	44	77

*(3 are distress sales)  **(a short sale)

Months of inventory (MOI) are as follows;
foothills overall is 8 months (357 ÷ 44 = 8.1) which is up from last month (lower is  better)

But as usual, looked at by price range it’s a very different story.

$0 – $599 is 6.2 MOI (very good but also up a tad from last month)

$600 – $999 is 16.7 MOI (way up from last month)

$1.0 – $1.499 is 9 MOI (way down from last month)

$1.5 – $1.999 with no sales and therefore no way to measure MOI, let’s just say it’s going to take a while,

$2.0 & up, ditto

We’re continuing to see the effects of the market slowdown that began in early August, some of which we expected – because August is August and it’s always slow – and some of which we didn’t, because we didn’t see the economic turmoil/uncertainty/stock market tumble/volatility that came roaring along in early August until it hit us over the head. And it continues to dampen home sales.

For comparison here’s Last Month’s numbers,

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new in Cat 10

5051 N Circulo Sobrio joins 4 other homes for sale in Cat 10.
And at $1,100,000 it takes honors as the highest priced in there, though by just $5k, while in $/sf, at $344/sf, it is clearly the leader of the pack. It last sold in 1998 for $535,000.

see> for sale in Cat 10

and> sold this year in Cat 10

5051 N Circulo Sobrio Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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was $2.6, is $1.375

When it was first listed in January 2008, 1347 E Desert Garden was listed for $2,600,000 ($530/sf). And for the next 18 months it was reduced and reduced until it was pulled from the market, unsold, in September 09 at $1,800,000.

1347 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

A huge improvement, it was relisted this May at $1,500,000 and is now $1,375,000($298/sf).

Will that do it. I don’t know, but with so little activity at the upper end of the foothills real estate market I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slew of high end price reductions. Actually, I’ll be surprised if we don’t. With so much uncertainty in the economy and so little confidence in government, I can’t imagine that even the most hopelessly optimistic of high-end home sellers can continue to believe that a buyer is going to come along anytime soon to pay yesterday’s prices.

And as I mentioned yesterday, there are cash buyers out there, but they’re looking for good deals,

We’ve had a grand total of three homes listed at a million or more (at $1.095, $1.190, $1.250) go to contract in the foothills since the first days of August. And two of them are short sales.

Meanwhile, there are 17 homes for sale in Pima Canyon (alone) – and at $1.375 this one on Desert Garden is the median priced home of the bunch, the average/median is $1,850,171/$1,375,000

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here’s where things stand

I say stand, as in standing still, because not much is moving lately,

There are 344 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median list price of $814,467/$499,000

38 homes sold in the last 30 days (= about 9 months inventory) – listed at an average/median of $411,580/$387,507 – and sold at an average/median of $391,168/$365,000 (so sold for about 95% of the latest list price)

78 homes in contract at an average/median list price of $520,652/$365,000

At least the inventory is low, during the September 2008 economic crisis, there were 551 homes for sale in the Foothills,

the slippery slope

Tucson Homes 
Tucson Real Estate

This is a nifty new google chart from something called Google Trends that shows the world’s interest in a particular topic, based on the number of Google searches. In this case I entered the search terms Tucson Homes & Tucson Real Estate to see the relative number of searches from 2004 through today.

It’s been a long slippery slide, though searches for both terms appear to be up a bit for this year. Or at least were up for this year. We’ll see.

Oh, and I did try Tucson Foothills Homes etc, but there’s not enough data , i.e. searches, for google to pull together a chart for the foothills. Hey that’s cool, we’re an off the charts niche market.

I’ll play with this some more and see what other fascinating trends I’m able to unearth.

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have you heard, homes are selling in shadow hills

The latest is 1081 E Calle Mariposa, which went to contract today. It was slow to start, listed last May at $728,000 then to $718,000, then $708,000, then back up to $718,000 and on and on until it finally expired this April. But it was relisted for $624,900 and quickly dropped to $599,900 ($146/sf) and away it went.

I showed Mariposa last spring when it was $718,00 and while it was a decent house in a nice location, for my clients, and for most others I think, it needed a good bit of updating. And at $718,000 it just didn’t add up.

Right now there are 10 homes for sale in Shadow Hills, and 4 in contract and 14 sold in the last 6 months.

That works out to a very lean 4.3 months of inventory. And though it’s very unusual these days, 
I’ll bet the fact that buyers and sellers in shadow Hills are in agreement on prices has something to do with both the pace of sales and the health of that little niche market -
the average/median list price of those for sale is $450,580/$434,400 while for those sold it’s 
just  $462,500/$435,000. And the homes sold in the last 6 months went for 95.27% of list price.
Almost unheard of.

While in the foothills overall, the average/median list price is $806,404/$499,500, while the average/median sold price for August is $391,343/$339,000!

1081 E Calle Mariposa Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

say goodbye August

Aside from all the really rotten stuff that happened in August, it was also not exactly a banner month for home sales. Here in the Tucson Foothills just 37 homes sold in August – the 2nd lowest monthly sales this year  – at an average/median of just $391,343/$339,000 – which is the low/low for the year. And coming off July, when 54 homes sold for an average/median of $538,197/$433,373, it’s a real set-back.

That puts August home sales down 31% from last month, while the average/median sale price is off by 27% & 22%. August, good riddance.

And really, the full effect of August has yet to be felt in actual closed sales. That’s because most of the 37 deals that did close in August were made in those carefree days of July.

ps- there may be a few additional sales that get turned in, and as they are I will update.

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a hot segment in a cool market

Despite all the uncertainty and concerns about the economy, the state of the union and everything else that’s rocking our boat, homes in the foothills priced up to $500k continue to sell like hotcakes - 22 have gone to contract since August 10th,

and 13 of them were on the market less than 50 days – while 8 of them were on
less than 10 days. 2 went to contract on the same day they were listed. 

Contrast that with the rest of the foothills market, that’s homes priced from $501k up to $9,995,0000, and what do get, 4 measly contracts since August 10th.

There are 184 homes for sale from $0 to $500k & 209 sold in the last 6 months, which puts the inventory at 5.3 months. More recently, 35 sold in the last 30 days, which still puts  the inventory at 5.3 months. So sales have been consistently good.

Contrast that with the other half of the market, homes priced from $501k & up.
There are 174 homes for sale from $501k to $9,995,000 & 134 sold in the last 6 months, which puts that inventory at a not too bad considering, 7.8 months.  
But more recently – in the last 30 days - just 13 sold, which puts the inventory at 13.4 months. Way too high, no matter how you look at it. Like high blood pressure, pretty soon something’s gonna give.

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a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market today

There are 364 single family homes for sale in the Foothills today,
53 sold in the last 30 days, and at the moment there are 77 in contract.

here’s what it looks like broken down by price range,

Price	# for sale	# sold	# in contract
$0 – $599	221	42	63
$600 – $999	77	7	8
$1.0 to $1.499	34	2	4
$1.5 – $1.999	15	1	1
$2.0 & up	17	1	1
	364	53	77

Months of inventory (MOI) are as follows;
foothills overall is 6.9 months (364 ÷ 53 = 6.9) which is darn near a balanced market
But, as always, looked at by price range it’s a very different story.

$0 – $599 is 5.3 MOI (remarkably good)

$600 – $999 is 11 MOI

$1.0 – $1.499 is 17 MOI

$1.5 – $1.999 is 15 MOI

$2.0 & up is 17 MOI

And with a glance at the number of homes in contract at each price range, that’s our snapshot of the current foothills market. 

While the bottom price tier is still roaring along very nicely, everything else is losing ground. Until August came along, everything, including the mid to upper market (though not including the $2mil and up crowd) had been improving quite nicely –sellers were finally getting it and sales were picking up. But then August did come along. Pray for September.

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how’s the foothills market been doing since August 3rd,

Well, contracts tell you how the market is doing. And while the foothills saw 23 homes go to contract since 8/3, not so bad, considering, everything that went to contract was under $650,000. The highest priced home to contract was listed at $649,000. Next is $639 then $550, then $485. The remaining 19 homes are in the $3’s & $2’s. That’s it. Average list price of the 23 homes to contract since 8/3 is a measly $384,252.

So it’s doing good, real good, as long as you’re in the $3’s & $2’s. Otherwise it stinks.
* not counting the Joesler on La Lomita (listed at $895K) that did go to contract during that time but fell out a few days later.

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does anyone really expect to see record breaking sale prices anytime soon in the foothills

2102 E Desert Garden Drive, on the market since Feb 2010 when it was first listed for $4,199,000, was re-listed today for $4,199,000.

Desert Garden is a spec home and also one of the three super-luxe highest priced homes for sale in PC – they’re listed at $3,300,000, $4,199,000 and $4,250,000.

On the other hand, since the very beginning of time (that’s 1999 in Pima Canyon time) there have been just 2 sales at $3.0 or more – one at $3.1, the other at $3.6 – in 11 years. And, surprise-surprise, those sales were in 05 and 06. And PC hasn’t seen hide nor hair of those prices ever since.

(and there are 11 other super-luxe homes for sale, listed from $3.295 to $9.995, in other foothills communities, that are competing with PC )

and keep in mind, the highest sale price ever in the foothills, anywhere in the foothills, ever, thru the MLS anyway, was $3.8. Yes, $3.8, that’s it.

And don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see 4 & 5 million $$ homes flying off the shelf, but, from what I can see, that just doesn’t seem to be where the market is these days.

2102 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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million $$$ home sales

Here’s a look at sales so far this year, and during the same period last year, for homes listed at a million $$ & up.This is for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills.

2011	2010
33 sold	30 sold
6 sold @ $925 to $975K	3 sold @ $915 to $999
27 sold @ $1.020 to $2.2	27 sold @ $1.0 to $2.2
avg/med sold- $1,319,314/$1,175,000	avg/med sold-$1,343,767/$1,175,000
@ avg $257/sf	@ avg $265/sf
@ avg 89.6% of list price	@ average 88.4% of list price
@ 112 avg dom (days on market)	@ 176 avg dom

It’s pretty much neck n neck with last year, with the only real difference being dom – down 36%, it seems. But given how days on market (dom) is calculated by the mls, the figures are not reliable and present a much more positive view than is actually the case. But they are consistent, at least, and always present a more positive view.  

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in the heat of July

54 single family homes sold in July in the Tucson Foothills for an average/median of $538,197/$433,373.

And, oddly enough, while June saw the highest monthly sales this year, with 65 sold, July, with 54, was the 2nd lowest sales month this year.

Yet average sale prices were higher in July than any other month – see >  and the winner is June < for a recap of monthly sales & prices.

Also, for the period of Jan 1 – July 31, we’re at 393 sold for an average/median of $490,631/$413,500.

During the same period last year 361 homes sold for an average/median of
$516,502/$411,500.

And we’re now down to just 370 homes listed for sale in the foothills. The fewest, by quite a few, in memory.

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an improving market, well sort of

Here’s a look at home sales and sold prices in several upper-crust Tucson Foothills communities, from the top of the boom in 2006, then to 2010 (when many sellers were still not willing to threw in the towel) and finally to this year, (when many sellers finally did throw in the towel)

For each community I’ve pulled the data on all the homes sold from Jan 1 to
July 20 - in 2006, 2010 and 2011. And listed the # homes sold, the average and median sold prices + the % of price increase or decrease from one year to the other.

Community	Year	# SOLD	Avg. SOLD $$	Med SOLD $$
Pima Cyn	2006	10	$2,045,000	$2,050,000
Pima Cyn	2010	6	$1,430,833 (-30%)	$1,437,500 (-30%)
Pima Cyn	2011	8	$1,203,919 (-16%)	$1,200,000 (-16%)
Cat 10	2006	7	$1,150,714	$1,085,000
Cat 10	2010	7	$842,171 (-27%)	$850,000 (-21%)
Cat 10	2011	5	$1,227,400 (+46%)	$1,465,000 (+72%)
Ventana CC	2006	22	$1,177,968	$1,036,250
Ventana CC	2010	15	$882,467 (-25%)	$650,000 (-37%)
Ventana CC	2011	10	$780,750 (-12%)	$803,750 (+24%)
Hacienda del Sol	2006	2	$1,550,000	$1,550,000
Hacienda del Sol	2010	3	$657,833 (-57%)	$757,500 (-51%)
Hacienda del Sol	2011	3	$768,833 (+17%)	$695,000 (-8%)
Alta Vista	2006	13	$1,080,731	$1,075,000
Alta Vista	2010	5	$736,300 (-32%)	$757,500 (-29%)
Alta Vista	2011	8	$883,688 (+20%)	$783,250 (+3%)
Skyline CC	2006	7	$1,255,714	$1,195,000
Skyline CC	2010	5	$898,000 (-29%)	$725,000 (-39%)
Skyline CC	2011	6	$1,040,833 (+16%)	$887,500 (+22%)

You be the judge.

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home sales in the Tucson Foothills, Jan 1 thru July 18

364 single family homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills so far this year

See how that compares to the same period (Jan 1 – July 18) from years past.

So sales are ahead of last year (329 sold) and 09 (267  sold) and 08 (329 sold)
____________________________________________________________________

less comforting is how prices have fared during that same time.  here’s a look at average(blue) & median sold prices during the same 6+ month period,

In addition to the obvious steep rise and fall of prices, it’s worth noting that since 09 the rate of decline in prices has slowed.

From 07 to 08 average sold prices dropped 9+%. Then from 08 to 09 they dropped another 17+%. Whereas, from 09 to 2010 they were down just 0.62% – and 2010 to this year it stands at –6.6%.

So there’s hope that we may be stabilizing. You think? And keep in mind that inventory is low – 386 for sale. We’ll see.

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HURRY! WHILE SUPPLIES LAST

the supply of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills is dwindling

July 17, 2011 – just 383 single family homes listed for sale, including 68 listed at $1,000,000 and up

July 2010 – 464 for sale/98 at $1,000,000 and up

July 2009 – 509 for sale/114 at $1,000,000 and up

July 2008 – 566 for sale/147 at $1,000,000 and up

UPDATE – I stopped at 08 but then someone asked about 2007, so I’ll add 07 and while I’m at it I’ll throw in 06. No charge. But I only have the number of overall homes for sale for those years, with no breakout of how many were at $1.0m & up.

July 2007 – 480

July 2006 – 377  (this is just after the market peaked in late May early June 06)
so stepping into the past we’re now at 2006 inventory levels and somewhere between 2003 to 2004 for prices. 

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for sale and sold by price range

If someone asks ‘how’s the RE market doing’, tell them it depends on what price range they’re talking about.

Up to $599k, it’s doing marvelously. More homes sold in the last 6 months than are currently for sale, leading to an increasingly lean supply.

At $2.0 & up, the picture couldn’t be more different. 2 of the 4 homes sold were foreclosures that went for cheap-cheap, as there continues to be very little demand at this price range. And the clock ticks louder every day, as most of these homes are well into a year, or two, or more, on the market.

(The For Sale column shows the # currently For Sale + the average list price
SOLD shows the # SOLD since 1/1/11 + the average sold price + months of inventory (moi))

Price	For Sale	SOLD
$0 – $599,999	243 at $395,870	257 at $343,557 (5.6 moi)
$600,000 – $999,999	76 at $799,866	65 at $705,275 (7)
$1.0 – $1.499	34 at $1,217,938	15 at $1,076,440 (13.6)
$1.5 – $1.999	17 at $1,781,176	7 at $1,611,821 (14.6)
$2.0 & UP	17 at $4,292,059	4 at $1,800,000 (25.5)

At $600k to $999 10 more homes sold this year than during the same period last year, though for about $20k less, on average + last year at this time there were 109 for sale vs 76 this year. So with just 7 months inventory this price range is now out of the woods and well on its way to being a normal, balanced market.

At $1.0 and up is where the trouble starts. $1.0 to $1.499 is off just a tad from last year – 17 sold same period last year/15 this year. But look at moi.

$1.5 to $1.999 is neck n’neck with last year – 8 sold last year/7 this  year, ditto moi.

(this data is for single family homes only - no condos, no townhomes – listed and sold by the Tucson Association of Realtors/MLS)

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what’s in contract

There are 99 homes in contract right now in the Tucson Foothills

12 are listed as ACTIVE CAPA – indicating that they are either short sales (and 10 of them are) or the contract is contingent on the buyers home closing escrow prior to this sale being completed. And surprisingly, this dirty dozen has an average list price of $937,583 - way higher than our normal average. Normal, for these days anyway. But four of them are listed at $1.250, $1.299, $1.850 and $2.650. And that tilts the average.

Then there are 48 listed as ACTIVE Contingent – 1st stage of being in contract and probably still in the inspection period. So they’re vulnerable to falling out of contract because of this or that – the condition of the house as discovered during an inspection, an appraisal that comes in under the agreed to sale price, buyers changing their minds, etc. etc. They are at an average list price of $512,526, and that’s more like it.

And finally, 39 homes listed as PENDING. They’re through the inspection period and, presumably, fast on their way to close escrow. They are at an average list of $480,501.

Also, of this group of 99 homes in contract, 12 are listed from $1,000,000 to $2,995,000. And there are 385 homes still for sale, so with 99 in contract we’re looking at 25% of the total inventory in contract. And for the middle of a long, hot (and wet) summer, that’s not too shabby.

99 homes in contract
(the link will expire in 30 days – August 8th – and the number of homes shown will change as the number of homes in contract changes. it’s 99 at 5:25 PM on 7/9/11)

Here are some random past posts showing how many homes were in contract then,

homes under contract in the Tucson Foothills today (March 10, 2008)

the good news is there are 74 homes under contract inthe Foothills 
(March 5, 2009)

under contract now (October 6, 2009)

91 homes in contract in the foothills today (April 12, 2010)

when was the last time a house went to contract in (October 10,2010)

more homes are going to contract, 3/16/2011 (March 16, 2011)

**(The links to the homes in contract in these past posts are by now totally dead)

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and the winner is June

more homes sold in June than in any  other month this year. And they sold for a higher average sold price, though often by just a scosche, than any other month this year

June - 65 sold at $502,248

May - 57 at $501,468

April – 64 at $500,467

March – 61 at $490,733

Feb – 55 at $447,833

January – 35 at $438,256

And more homes sold this June, and for more $$$, than last June –
June 2010 - 57 sold at $482,010

June 09 – just 47 sold but at $532,789

June, yeah!

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June sales in the Tucson Foohills

If you’re wondering why I haven’t reported June sales, it’s because I’ve just been too busy to get to it.

But it looks like I will tomorrow – and the top line numbers are not too shabby –
65 single family homes sold for an average of $502,248

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just another look at the ups and downs of the market

$$/sf costs over the years

This is for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills through the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS

And please keep in mind that these are averages  - consisting of $/sf costs from under $100 bucks/sf to over $500/sf and everything in between. 

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at a million and up

How are sales doing at a million and up,

25 homes listed at a million $$ and up have sold so far this year, 
(3 sold for less that a million) the average sale price was $1,319,174 at $260/sf with the % of sale price to list price (SP/LP) at 90.1%. (so on average they sold for 90.1% of what they were listed for – well not really, but more on that later)

Anyway, How does that compare to the same period in 2010;
26 homes listed at a million $$ and up sold in 2010, (2 sold for less than a million)the average sale price was $1,367,269 at $269/sf. And the % of SP/LP was 88.8%.

how about 09 (in the rubble of the collapse)
21 listed at a million $$ and up sold in 09 (2 sold for less than a million) the average sale price was $1,216,857 at $269/sf. The % SP/LP was 84.8%

and, finally, 2008 (before it all really hit the fan)
37 homes listed at mil and up sold in those balmy, carefree days.
And they sold for an average of $1,499,358 at $325/sf at 91% SP/LP.

CAVEAT CAVEAT- if you don’t know this already- the % SP/LP should be taken with an extra large grain of salt. Why?

Because as the MLS calculates it, the % SP/LP is based on the latest list price.
That’s after all price cuts & after, perhaps, being relisted & relisted again and maybe even again.

So if a home were first listed for $1,700,000, reduced to $1.6, then to $1.5, then relisted at $1.2 and eventually reduced to $1.0, and then it sold for $950,000, guess what, it would show up in the official statistics as having sold for 95% of list price. Talk about making the numbers say anything you want.

Anyway, since the SP/LP is calculated in the same peculiar way each year, we can
at least compare one year to another and see that high priced homes now appear to be selling for closer to LP than they have been in the last couple of years.

And that’s a good thing. Because a tighter relationship between SALE PRICE & LIST PRICE means that buyers and sellers are in closer agreement on where prices should be. And why, you ask, are buyers and sellers now in closer agreement?

Well, because after holding out for a few years, sellers finally realized that the only way they were going to sell was to reduce their price to what buyers were willing to pay. That’s it, it’s that simple.

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