TheTucsonFoothills

never one to follow the crowd

Robert Shiller takes a look at long term home price trends in today’s New York Times

There has been some good news lately: home prices have risen over the last year, and with those gains there has been a renewed sense of optimism. But do these price increases mean that homes are now good investments for the long haul?

Unfortunately, no. We do know one thing from economic research: one-year home price increases, after correcting for inflation, have had almost no statistical relationship to increases 10 years down the road. Thus, the upturn last year is irrelevant to long-run forecasting. Booms are typically followed by busts, usually in far less than 10 years. In a decade, an entire housing boom, if there is one in inflation-corrected terms, is likely to have been reversed and completely washed away.

Read all about it;
Why Home Prices Change (or Don’t)
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: April 13, 2013
NYTimes.com

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the hot vacation home market

So says CNNMoney.com with an assist from Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. Hmmm!

"Investors have been very active in the market over the past two years, attracted mostly by foreclosures that could be quickly turned into profitable rentals," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. As a result, the supply of available second homes in hotspots like Florida and Arizona has grown quite limited, he said.

Read all about it > Vacation home sales surged 10% last year

Question, would you call a 10% rise a surge.

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what’s happening in Hamptons (as in South, East & Bridge) real estate

In today’s New York Times > Well Before Summer, Hamptons Luxury Real Estate Is Scorching. It’s an interesting and amusing read about the turnaround in Hamptons real estate, which may even bear some similarities to what’s happening here in the foothills – the Hamptons are also a 2nd home, discretionary purchase market, albeit at a gazillion $$$$ and Up.  And for me it’s bit nostalgic too. I spent many summers in the Hamptons from about age13 and into my early 20’s – many moons ago. And it was wonderful back then, easy, breezy and fun, and while it was also a popular getaway from the rigors of life in NYC, it was fairly accessible to those of middle class means. Today, forgetaboutit

Here are a few passages that stood out for me;

Harald Grant, a senior vice president of Sotheby’s International Realty, has already rented out an oceanfront house in Southampton for $550,000 for the month of August alone and has a stack of 14 contracts and purchase memos on his desk representing pending sales of $4.5 million to $25 million.

For high-rolling renters, Mr. Grant has a trio of oceanfront rentals in Southampton that can be had for the summer for $400,000, $600,000 or $800,000. Why pay $25 million to buy, and more to maintain, a summer getaway when you can rent and run? Or, for a million or so, you can rent year round.
(I wonder, is that happening here in the foothills, are would-be 2nd home buyers now opting to rent for the season instead of buying)

“But in general what’s different this season,” Mr. Grant said, “is that in the mind of most buyers, less is more, and nobody wants to be the king of the hill and flaunt their wealth the way people were doing before the recession. (or spend the money for the privilege of being KOTH)

“Folks who spent $20,000 for a month’s rental,” he continued, “may be looking to spend $15,000. Folks who could be driving a Rolls-Royce are settling for a Mercedes. People aren’t saying, ‘I have to have it; I’ll pay anything,’ and writing checks on the spot. An owner who says, ‘I want $32 million for my oceanfront house’ probably isn’t going to get it. He’ll get somewhere in the mid-20s.” (ditto, Aha)

Properties under $1.4 million (their low-end) in turnkey condition are, said Caroline Sarraf of Brown Harris Stevens, “flying off the shelves,

“Value was the word of the year for 2012,” Mr. Gicking added. “The smart money watched and waited patiently for a correctly priced home, and among prime properties in the most desirable areas, we’ve seen bidding wars continuing into 2013, a clear indicator that, after a few turbulent years, buyers are confident about jumping back into the Hamptons market again.”

The record price for a house remains the $60 million paid in 2008 for 108 Gin Lane in Southampton, but not every buyer operates on an elastic budget.

(but even in the Hamptons) Back on less rarefied ground, Ms. Desiderio said, most transactions in 2012 occurred in the $500,000-to-$999,000 range, where shared baths occasionally apply. “There were 542 recorded sales, more than any other price category.”

“For years,” Ms. Saatchi said, “time was on the buyers’ side. They would look and look and from one visit to the next, prices would go down and inventory up. Now, waiting is starting to mean higher prices and fewer choices. As in the city, we’re running out of prime inventory.” (Yes - for the lower-end and screaming deals in almost any price range and maybe for prime properties that are attractively priced, but otherwise No)

Well Before Summer, Hamptons Luxury Real Estate Is Scorching

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Ivy Zelman says

‘We’re in Nirvana for Housing’

OK great, but who the heck is Ivy Zelman?

Ms. Zelman is the CEO of Zelman & Associates and holds over 18 years of experience covering housing and housing-related industries at various points in her career.

Zelman & Associates

Institutional Investor

Bloomberg Link

WSJ.com

A scarcity of homes for sale and record-low mortgage rates are setting up for a bullish real estate market, Zelman & Associates CEO Ivy Zelman said Thursday on CNBC.

"I think we're in nirvana for housing," she said. "I think that I have to tell you, I'm probably the most bullish I've ever been fundamentally, and I'm dating myself, been around for over 20 years, so I've seen a lot of ups and downs."

On "Fast Money," Zelman likened consumer sentiment to a battleship pointing down for the past several years.

"And then the inventory cleared, the blight goes away, consumers feel better and now it's really this urgency to go find a house," she said. "I'll tell you, there are Realtors blanketing neighborhoods, asking people to sell their homes."

Zelman correctly called both the housing market's top in 2005 and the bottom in 2012.

(Read More: Housing Recovery Leaves Some Behind)

Housing prices are poised to continue rising for the next four to six years, she added.

With all due respect for Ms. Zelman’s excellent record in making these calls, but from low interest rates and inventory and more upbeat consumer sentiment she (somehow) gets to Nirvana and rising prices for the next 4 to 6 years. That’s a big leap. 

Interest rates and inventory are low and consumers are more upbeat. But, unless they’re behaving very differently elsewhere, and they may well be, here in the foothills they’re also treading very carefully and putting a very sharp pencil to any potential purchase. And walking away when it doesn’t add up.

Who can predict what’s going to happen in the next 4 to 6 years. Myself, I’d also consider other opinions, including Robert Schiller’s, before counting my chickens.

A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: January 26, 2013
The New York Times

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a one horse town

Tucson's Ryan Airfield faces closure of its contract air-traffic control tower in early April unless it can make a good case to regulators that keeping it open is in the national interest.

The Tucson Airport Authority has received a letter from federal regulators saying Ryan is among 189 smaller airports that face closure of their contract air-traffic control towers due to looming sequestration cuts.

From the Arizona Daily Star

Tower at Tucson's Ryan Airfield closer to shutdown

Local aviation officials have said that closing Ryan would jeopardize safety, noting that Ryan is a valuable reliever to Tucson International Airport and features advanced landing-approach technology. Without a tower, pilots will have to coordinate takeoffs and landings themselves via radio and visual contact.

And besides, having to actually drive to Fashion Square , what fun is that.

 

dream on home sellers

Bidding wars. Buyers paying cash. Homes selling for more than asking price. Are we entering another housing bubble? No. But prospective buyers in many markets may be shocked at the competitive nature of the home-buying process these days.

From WSJ.com
For Many, 2013 Will Be the Year to Finally Buy a Home

The number of homes for sale fell to a 13-year low in January, leaving would-be buyers chasing a shrinking supply of homes just before the spring selling season.

"It's not that the prices are crazy, but the buyers outnumber the available homes for sale."

There was an average of 4.8 months of supply of existing homes for sale in the fourth quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors (that is, it would take 4.8 months to sell off the inventory at the current pace). Six months' supply is closer to normal, says Celia Chen, a housing economist with Moody's Analytics, an economic research firm. In 2010, it went as high as 10 months. "Prices are starting to rise as a result of the strong demand relative to low supplies," says Ms. Chen.

Why they even single out Arizona, along with DC, as having the highest jump in the price index.

Ah, not here in the Foothills I’m afraid. At least not if you’re talking about anything priced more than about $500,000 – of which there are 218 for sale, that’s 56% of the homes for sale – or the occasional bargain priced distress sale. But if you can suspend disbelief for 5 minutes it’s an amusing fairytale.

Click Market Snapshot up at the top of the page for a quick peek at the current foothills market. However, in the past, the foothills market has trailed other larger markets – NY, LA, SF, and even Phoenix – by 3 to 6 months on both the up and downside. So maybe we’re on the cusp of a big turnaround and just don’t see it yet. I wouldn’t rule it out. 

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After the traumatic collapse of the last price bubble, Americans seem less sanguine about owning versus renting

Another article from Robert Shiller, explaining  why he is less than optimistic about the prospect of rising home prices. From The New York Times

A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It

WE’RE beginning to hear noises that we’ve reached a major turning point in the housing market — and that, with interest rates so low, this is a rare opportunity to buy. But are such observations on target?

It would be comforting if they were. Yet the unfortunate truth is that the tea leaves don’t clearly suggest any particular path for prices, either up or down.

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“ the cheap talk is we’re off to the races again …”

From WSJ.com
Not so, according to Robert J. Shiller, Yale University professor and housing and markets authority, talks to Neal Lipschutz at Davos on the state of U.S. housing and stocks.

 

Here’s a link to the video on WJS.com > Shiller on Housing & Stocks < if the embedded link above doesn’t play.

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Happy New Year

read all about it, Luxury Snaps Back

According to the WSJ - Strong demand and low inventory spark unexpected bidding wars—and a comeback for homes priced above $1 million; 'Americans finally got off the fence'
WSJ.com
By Nick Timiraos – Luxury Snaps Back

(a few highlights)

After a soft 2011, the luxury home market made a comeback in 2012, driven by growing buyer confidence, strong foreign demand, low mortgage rates, more realistic sellers and sharp drops in the number of home listings. Sales of homes priced at $1 million and above rose by 9% in the first nine months of 2012 compared with the same period one year ago to the highest level in four years, …

Still, many homeowners are finding that their homes are worth less than the peak values of six years ago. That has likely prompted some to hold their properties off the market. The supply of million-dollar-and-above homes being offered for sale dropped by nearly 8% this year, according to Realtor.com.

This year, bidding wars have become commonplace in affluent California markets from Brentwood to Palo Alto, where new land is scarce and where investors have pushed up prices by making all-cash offers to buy older homes that can be torn down and rebuilt.

"I had so many calls this year from disappointed buyers who thought they had a deal, and the next thing they knew, it was a bidding war and they lost," says Pamela Liebman, chief executive of the luxury brokerage Corcoran Group.

To be sure, many sellers are finding that their homes aren't worth anywhere near what they fetched at their peak, and sales are rising from extremely depressed levels of the past few years. Sales of $1 million properties for the first nine months of the year were nearly half of what they were in at the peak of the housing boom in 2006.

read all about it, Luxury Snaps Back

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the Tucson Foothills there’ve been 48 $million+ sales so far for 2012 vs. 
42 in 2011 – a 14% increase. But we’ve got a ways to go to catch up to the 123 sold in 2006.

And like WSJ’s findings home values here in the foothills are down considerably from the peak years (more so for higher priced homes). Which has undoubtedly caused would-be sellers to hold off on listing. And while the million+ market has improved this year, unlike WSJ’s findings, we are not experiencing a rash of bidding wars at $1million & up. And at $2million and up, well, sales at $2,000,000 are not breaking any records .

I can’t say whether or not it will hold true this time, but in the past I’ve found that the Tucson Foothills real estate market lags the trends, both positive and negative, occurring in some of the larger US markets by about 3 to 6 months.
see>( 2008- weekend reading) (2011- this is encouraging) (2011 - The rich are different from you and me: They're buying real estate)

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the day after

However you celebrate the season I hope you’ve enjoyed it. 

Boy I have. Other than a blog post here and there I’ve been off for almost two weeks now, celebrating with family and friends, and I’m about worn out and almost ready to get back to work. Almost.

it’s official, it’s safe to go back in

Economists have declared Housing recovery finally here

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's been a long time coming, but economists surveyed by CNNMoney believe the nation's housing market has finally turned the corner.

Of the 14 economists who answered questions about home prices in the survey, nine believe that prices have already turned higher or will make that turn later this year. Only three months ago, half of the economists surveyed by CNNMoney believed a turnaround in prices would not take place until 2013 or later.

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have you heard,

 Home prices rise in all but 6 states - So says MSN real estate  

The latest CoreLogic statistics demonstrate the unevenness of the housing-market recovery.
Prices rose 18.2% in Arizona, but fell 2.6% in Rhode Island.

The latest statistics from CoreLogic found that home prices nationwide increased 4.6% from August 2011 to August 2012, the biggest year-over-year increase since July 2006.

These are the states that showed the greatest home-price appreciation from August 2011 to August 2012:

• Arizona, 18.2%

• Idaho, 10.4%

• Nevada, 9%

• Utah, 8.9%

• Hawaii, 8%
  

And the six states where prices continued to decline were:

• Rhode Island, 2.6%

• Illinois, 2.3%

• New Jersey, 1.4%

• Alabama, 0.7%

• Connecticut, 0.5%

• Kentucky, 0.3%.

And while it appears that prices also rose a bit here in the Tucson Foothills, and even though we are in AZ, it was not 18%.  Thank goodness.

Here’s a look at average/median sold prices for the 3rd Qtr
July – August – September of 2011 vs. 2012.

2011 – 159 sold at $456,013/$370,000

2012 – 193 sold at $468,260/$390,000

So, along with a 23% jump in the number of homes sold, there was a relatively modest
2.7% & 5.4% bump in average & median sold prices vs last year.

I imagine that much of the 18% bump in AZ prices is due to the selloff of a gazillion or more foreclosures in the Phoenix area last year vs.many fewer foreclosures and more normal sales, at not quite such bargain prices, this year.

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my, how quickly things change

From WSJ.com    Florida Home Sells for $47 Million

A Florida home that originally listed for $60 million has sold for $47 million, a record for a single-family house in Miami-Dade County.

The high-end market in South Florida has picked up in recent months, with a number of sales well above the $10 million mark. The previous county record was broken in March when another home on Indian Creek sold for nearly $40 million to hedge-fund manager Edward S. Lampert, according to local brokers.

"The market has changed dramatically for the super high end," said Jill Eber, one of the property's Miami-area listing brokers. "These are prices that we've never, ever seen before."

and I wonder, where did Zillow come in on this $47mil  sale??

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Home sellers are staying on the sidelines this summer, which is helping to firm up prices in more U.S. housing markets.

From WSJ.com
Nick Timiraos

With Low Supply, Asking Prices Rise for Fifth Straight Month

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Fighting Back Against Lowball Home Appraisals

Appraisal changes enacted in the wake of the financial crisis were designed to eliminate improper pressure on appraisers that often led to inflated valuations during the housing boom. But critics say those changes resulted in unnecessarily conservative valuations and the greater use of appraisers with little knowledge of local market conditions.

Lenders report that "overly pessimistic appraisals caused by appraisers using distressed sales as 'comparables'" are a key reason why deals are falling through, particularly in parts of the Southeastern U.S., says Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

From WSJ.com
Read all about it > Fighting Back Against Lowball Home Appraisals

I’ve harped on this vigorously and often – here and here and here and elsewhere -  because lowball (flawed)  appraisals are killing perfectly good transactions in the Tucson Foothills and it’s got to stop. 

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talk about a long hot summer

this is bad news on many fronts, including the likelihood of putting another big crimp in home sales here in the foothills. And with the Euro crisis once again near the boiling point it looks as if things are only going to get worse 

Stocks slammed as Dow erases 2012 gains

Jun 01 4:39pm:

Wall Street suffered its bloodiest day of the year Friday as U.S. stocks sank more than 2% following an ugly jobs report. The Dow erased all its gains for the year, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved into correction territory, down more than 10% from the year's highs. More

"This might be a strong season, but there's a good chance we'll continue down for a year still," said Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University. "There's too much uncertainty."

Home prices lowest since 2002
CNNMoney

Home prices hit new post-bubble lows in March, according to a report out Tuesday.

Average home prices were down 2.6% from 12 months earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets. Home priceshave not been this low since mid-2002.

"While there has been improvement in some regions, housing prices have not turned," said David Blitzer, spokesman for S&P.

Read all about it > Home prices lowest since 2002

Who am I to question Robert Schiller but, honestly, from what I’ve seen, I’d swear we’ve turned the corner.

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another deal killed by another half-assed appraisal

2321 E Calle Lustre, a pretty great looking remodeled house in the old foothills, went to contract on March 2nd from a $949,000 ($191/sf) list price. And it should have easily appraised. But it didn’t. The appraisal came in substantially below the contract price,
so the deal was killed.

Now I can’t prove to you that it should have appraised, but it should have, easily, and with money left over. It’s a no-brainer. But apparently not to the so-called professional appraiser.

Meanwhile the buyer, a prominent individual who is moving to the area, after having spent a lot of time, is back to square one and out searching for another house. But the sellers are really worse for the wear. They moved out and had all their beautiful furniture and other stuff moved out and put in storage. And now they’re in the process of taking a few giant steps backwards – and getting their stuff out of storage and back into the house in preparation for putting it back on the market and starting all over again. Meanwhile, they’ve spent a lot of time and a lot money and it’s all for naught because of a faulty appraisal. This has got to stop. Peoples lives are being thrown into turmoil because of the incompetence of the appraisal management companies and the appraisers they assign. And in most cases they walk away without another thought.

But maybe not this time. I understand the sellers are pursuing legal action against the appraiser and the appraisal management company. Good for them, I wish them all the luck and I volunteer to help in any way I can. Something’s got to be done to wake these people up.

I’ve written about my experiences with faulty appraisals HERE and HERE and HERE 
And we find ourselves in this mess thanks to the wisdom of the Obama-Dodd-Frank financial reforms. For a recent appraisal that was done for a buyer I was working with the appraisal management company was out of Mumbai. Seriously, they’re headquartered in Mumbai India and they’re assigning appraisers to do appraisals in the Tucson Foothills.
Now that’s the kind of change you can believe in.

UPDATE, it’s now back on the market
2321 E Calle Lustre Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

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uh oh

Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back

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Foreclosures climbed in January + other cheerful news

From CNNMoney.com

Foreclosures climbed in January
Foreclosures picked up in January, yet another sign that the nation's huge glut of delinquent homes may soon start making their way onto the market.

The number of homes hit with a notice of default, auction sale, bank repossession or some other foreclosure filing in January rose 3% since December, but it was still significantly lower than it was a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.

+

Home prices at lowest point in more than 10 years
The National Association of Realtors reported that the median home price in January fell 2% from December to $154,700. That's the lowest price reading since November 2001, before the run-up in home prices that became known as the housing bubble.

+

Multi-million dollar foreclosures
Even these mega-mansions in some of America's wealthiest neighborhoods are not immune to the housing crisis. Duh

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Atlanta, Anchorage or Austin, sellers confuse what they want for their home with what it’s actually worth

… she and her husband bought a four-bedroom home on a manmade lake in 1999 for $374,000. They spent $100,000 installing a pool, a hot tub, a basement bar and home theater.

When her husband lost his job as a sales executive at a consumer products company in 2007, the couple moved into a house that Ms. West had inherited from her mother in St. Augustine, Fla. They put the Dacula house on the market for $599,900.

They rejected several offers that they considered lowballs. “Everybody kept saying ‘Oh, it’s a great house, it will sell,’ ” Ms. West recalled. A contract for $447,000 fell through when the buyer could not secure a loan. Last month, the couple signed a contract for $360,000, effectively erasing previous gains and their large investment in improvements.

From The New York Times 
In Atlanta, Housing Woes Reflect Nation’s Pain

just keep thinking,  ‘Oh, it’s a great house, it will sell’

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goodbye 2011, glad to see you go

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Merry Christmas

surprise surprise, NAR sales figures off by 14%

and take a guess which direction they erred in. You got it, it turns out the NAR inflated overestimated home sales by 14% or more, they now admit.

From CNNMoney.com - Home sales during housing bust worse than thought

Existing home sales during the housing bust were actually 14.3% worse than previously reported, a revision to Realtors' group numbers shows.

On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revised home sale counts back to 2007 due to flaws in their original data analysis.

In 2007, there were actually just 5.04 million existing home sales, 11% less than the 5.65 million originally reported. Even worse were 2008 and 2009, when there were 16% fewer sales than originally reported. Sales in 2010 were 15% lower.

Read all about it > Home sales during housing bust worse than thought
________________________________________________________________________________

And why did it take them 3 or 4 years to figure out their “error” –  this is another big chink in the NAR’s already crumbling credibility and, of course, it doesn’t do much good for Realtors either.
Thanks NAR.

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cheaper to buy than to rent

According to an article from Nick Timiraos on WSJ.com – Home prices and mortgage rates have fallen so far that the monthly cost of owning a home is more affordable than at any point in the past 15 years and is less expensive than renting in a growing number of cities.

That may be so, it may be cheaper, but, as the article also points out there are other important considerations that are preventing people from jumping on the it’s a good time to buy a home bandwagon. 

Read all about it > Stronger Lure for Prospective Home Buyers

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Happy Thanksgiving!

woe is me

New Canaan, Connecticut;
RESALE value wasn’t what Rodney and Beverly Hawes had in mind when they built a giant “sports barn” behind their pondside home here. The only audience they were looking to please consisted of their 25 grandchildren.

The three-level barn is actually more like a resort, and its 10,000 square feet are filled with fun. In addition to his-and-hers bunkrooms, a full kitchen and a bar, the Haweses put in a basketball court with a scoreboard, a bowling lane and an electronic golf simulator. The movie theater has leather seating for 30. The stage is equipped with professional lighting and sound systems, operated from a balcony above.

The barn thrilled the grandchildren — but the market hasn’t known quite what to do with it. The Haweses’ property, which also includes their seven-bedroom house, a guest cottage, a pool, an outdoor kitchen and a stocked trout pond, has yet to find a buyer after two years.

“With Obama in charge of things, frankly, we might as well get on with life,” Mr. Hawes said, alluding to the president’s call for higher taxes on the wealthy. “Otherwise, we’re going to end up giving it to the folks in Washington anyway.”

sniffle, sniffle, no one interested in their obscene indulgence, what’s the world coming to.  It’s enough to almost make me side with Obama.

Read all about it; NYTimes.com
At Auction, a Barn Full of Wonders

no one is immune

As most of the country struggled with the widening recession in 2008, Paul Parmar, a private-equity investor, said that as one of the super rich, he was continuing to support the economy by spending on luxury cars, homes and jets, without worry about the cost.

In April 2008, he was quoted in a newspaper interview as saying the downturn didn't affect him at all "on a spending level." He said he had recently acquired a $110,000 BMW for his girlfriend, and a Bentley for himself.

Now Mr. Parmar has joined the many homeowners who have faced foreclosure on their properties.

His 32-acre classical-style compound in Colts Neck, N.J., which features a private lake, outdoor pool with beach, an oversize indoor pool and two bowling lanes, has gone through foreclosure proceedings and is scheduled to be auctioned off by the Monmouth County Sheriff on Oct. 31.

Read all about it;
From WSJ.com
A High Roller Feels the Bite of Foreclosure

telling it like it is

The  Business section of today’s New York Times has an article on a new travel web site called Oyster.com that is a welcome change and I think is going to be a big hit. Their whole thing is that instead of relying on the overblown descriptions and retouched photos provided by the hotels promotional department and web sites, Oyster relies instead on 45 full-time reviewers who stay in hotels incognito and post their own reviews and photographs.

“Oyster is meant to be very simple, easy, straightforward and truthful, where what you see is what you get,” said Elie Seidman, chief executive of Oyster.
What a novel idea.

NYTimes.com
Selling Travel With Words, Not Images

And this is really cool, - a regular feature, Photo Fakeouts, contrasts promotional photos from hotels with photos taken from the same perspective by Oyster reviewers.

Check it out, I think the world is ready for this and Oyster is gonna kick some big time travel industry butt

5 bright spots in real estate recession

I don’t know if this is actually true, and I hope it is, but it sounded so positive & promising I had to pass it on anyway. 
5 bright spots in real estate recession

By Tara-Nicholle Nelson, Monday, September 12, 2011.Inman News™

The real estate market meltdown was much more severe and has lasted much longer than even the most bearish housing market observer would ever have predicted. Rather than values taking a dip, they've taken a double dip in many places; and the housing sector drama has infected the job market and the entire world's economy.

Yet, there are some very shiny silver linings to this whole mess -- a handful of ways in which our mindsets, habits, behaviors and approaches to money, mortgage and even life decision-making -- have been changed by this real estate market debacle. As I see it, here are the five best things about this otherwise terrible housing recession:

continue, read all about it > 5 bright spots in real estate recession <

and ps  - (this is from Inman News- a real estate industry news and info site) I’m always skeptical of RE industry sites, since so much of what’s on them is self serving propaganda & bs. But Inman seems pretty straight.

the Wrigley Building is on the block

And it seems that a group of investors, including a couple from Groupon, are planning to buy the jewel of Michigan Avenue. It’s a gorgeous building and perfectly sited at the Chicago River & Michigan Avenue.

My first time ever in Chicago, in 1978 ?, I was there for a job interview and had a very memorable lunch at the Wrigley Building Restaurant. And as a result of that lunch I ended up taking the job and spending more than 20 years in Chicago - a lot of business got done over lunch in those days. And from my new office I looked across Michigan Ave at the Wrigley Building – what a great sight morning til night.

Whoa, talk about getting nostalgic

From The Chicago Tribune: read all about it,

BDT Capital Partners to buy Wrigley Building

Case-Shiller says

Falling home prices have been the norm for some time. Now, a momentary respite is at hand.

Home prices on a monthly basis rose in both April and May, according to the Case-Shiller Index, a widely followed measure of housing prices. Tuesday's release of the index for June is expected to extend that run to a third gain. This should provide the battered housing sector with some hope.

Read all about it > From wsj.com
 Appreciation in Home Prices to Be Fleeting

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hold on,

Dow down 431, 471,499, 515, 463, 386, 419

no one is immune

The 57,000-square-foot Los Angeles mansion built by the late television producer Aaron Spelling closed Thursday for $85 million, or 43% off its asking price.

Candy Spelling, the seller and Mr. Spelling's widow, had been one of a select group of wealthy homeowners who sought to hold firm on their lofty asking prices despite the housing market's sharp decline. That group has steadily dwindled. Ms. Spelling's estate has been shown since 2008 and was officially listed in March 2009.
From WSJ.com

After Record Listing, Home Sells for a Mere $85 Million

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

Owning a house remains central to Americans’ sense of well-being

From the New York Times
By DAVID STREITFELDand MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
Published: June 29, 2011

Despite Fears, Owning Home Retains Allure, Poll Shows

Nearly nine in 10 Americans say homeownership is an important part of the American dream, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. And they are keen on making sure it stays that way, for themselves and everyone else.

Read all about it; Despite Fears, Owning Home Retains Allure, Poll Shows

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

I’m off for a few days

traveling, a mini vacation.
If I have the time I may report in before returning next week.

Stay cool,

beware gmail hackers

I’ve had my fill of them lately. A few months ago my gmail account was hacked and I lost all my saved emails – a couple a thousand of them, both personal & business. But thankfully I was able to recover my gmail account.

Then more recently, and for no apparent reason, I had a bout where perfectly legitimate emails were ending up in my spam folder. Which of course I didn’t discover until way too long after the fact. So if you emailed to inquire about me representing you in a mega $$$$ deal and I didn’t reply, it wasn’t me, I swear.

And today this;

> Gmail onlineservice@gmail.com to
johnschneiders@gmail.com
date Thu, Apr 7, 2011 at 9:11 AM
subject Email Alert

Dear Email Client,
There was a failed attempt to login into your account from a blacklisted IP.
Kindly login below Click Here <

and when I clicked Click Here I landed here;

on a page that looks exactly like a legitimate Google sign in page,
except for the address in the address bar, which- you probably can’t read - reads ; http://www.clubvanvrijdenkers.nl/logo/gmail/signon.html 
(whatever the hell clubvanvrijdenkers.nl/… is)

instead of something like this;

https://www.google.com/accounts/ServiceLogin?service=mail&passive=true&rm=false&continue=http%3A%2F%2Fmail.google.com%

be careful, it’s no fun getting hacked,

round up all the usual suspects

The New York Times, March 25, 2011
By Joe Nocera

In Prison for Taking a Liar Loan

I read this article early this morning and was seething, so (*&)(*%^*&(&*%^ angry that I couldn’t put it on the blog without making a complete ass of myself.
That our Justice Department could actually put Charlie Engle in jail while that fat +%)*^@ cat Angelo Mozilo and his ilk go scot free is the height of hypocrisy.

See what you think,

Endangered Missing, Tucson AZ

 

ASHLEY KINGSBURY

DOB:  Mar 18, 1997
Missing:  Mar 14, 2011
Height:  5'2" (157 cm)
Eyes:  Hazel
Race:  White
Age Now:  13
Sex:  Female
Weight:  95 lbs (43 kg)
Hair:  Brown

Missing From:
TUCSON
AZ
United States

Ashley was last seen at home on March 14, 2011. She may be in the company of an adult male. She may still be in the local area or she may travel to Utah in a 2000 silver Hyundai Elantra with Utah license plates Z754UV.

ANYONE HAVING INFORMATION SHOULD CONTACT
National Center for Missing & Exploited Children
1-800-843-5678 (1-800-THE-LOST)

---

Pima County Sheriff's Department (Arizona) 1-520-351-4900

still wondering if it’s finally time to buy a home

here’s the latest in a growing series of articles that attempt to answer that question but may, in fact, only cause more confusion, From WSJ.com >
Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash 

 which could just as easily been titled > Why 2011 May Not Be …

the NAR, they are their own worst enemy

WSJ.com

Explaining the Realtors’ Rosy Housing Data

By Alan Zibel

With the National Association of Realtors reporting that home prices rose in about half of U.S. metropolitan areas in the last three months of 2010, it’s easy to think that that the housing market is showing some signs of recovery. “Home sales clearly recovered in the latter part of 2010,” Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s ever-optimistic economist says in a statement.

But the proverbial grain of salt is in order, given many other sources report prices continue falling. The Journal recently reported that home values declined in all of the 28 major metropolitan areas tracked during the fourth quarter when compared to a year earlier, and repeat-sales indexes such as the S&P/Case Shiller index have shown that prices declined in October and November.

and a couple of reader comments from the WSJ article sum it up nicely;

• Charlie wrote:
  For thirty years,”There has never been a better time to buy a home” has been the NAR mantra. Only “journalists” are paying the NAR any attention. Why?

• kilgore wrote:

Someone at the WSJ really ought to do a lengthy analysis of Lawrence Yun’s and David Lereah’s incredibly irresponsible/profoundly damaging statements on the state of the housing markets over the past 7 years. I can’t think of a less credible organization.

It’s laughable, but the NAR continues to parade around as if it’s (still) the trusted source for real estate information in this country. (it never really was the trusted source, it was just the only source available, but they did a damn good job of abusing that privilege – and so those days are now long gone)
Like the Detroit auto industry, peddling their junk to the American people for the 30 years leading up to their collapse, and all the while waving the flag and chanting BUY AMERICAN. What traitors.

Read all about it > Explaining the Realtors’ Rosy Housing Data

say it isn’t so, no, not from the NAR

From Inman News™ 
CoreLogic: NAR methodology appears to inflate home sales by 15-20%

Statistics published by the National Association of Realtors appear to overstate sales of existing homes by 15 to 20 percent, mortgage and property data aggregator CoreLogic says in a new report that concludes home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.

A NAR spokesman said the CoreLogic claim "is premature at best," and NAR will be making some benchmark revisions to its historic sales data later this year.

NAR's figures -- based on data collected from multiple listing services and large brokerages -- show sales of existing homes fell 5 percent in 2010, to 4.9 million. But CoreLogic, which collects public sales records from county recorders and courts, estimates that home sales actually fell 12 percent, to 3.6 million.

Read all about it > Decline in real estate sales greater than stated?

or how about - Watch as the NAR Fritters Away the Last Remnants of its Credibility

I picked this up from Chris Fountain’s Greenwich Real Estate blog, For What It’s Worth > Hmm- could the NAR be underestimating the decline in real estate sales and prices? & don’t miss the comments.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

please, let’s all read this and pass it on to help make sure that Pulte homes gets the PR they really deserve

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON In today’s New York Times

Preapproved: Well, It Sounded Good

MELISSA CALDERONE was ready for a fresh start when she made plans last year to move to Florida from New Jersey. Recently remarried, she signed a contract in mid-March on a house to be built in Windermere, Fla., by Pulte Homes, the nation’s largest homebuilder. The neighborhood had good schools for her three children and two stepchildren. It was also close to where Ms. Calderone’s parents lived.

Her local bank approved her for a mortgage. But then a Pulte Homes saleswoman told her that she would get a $4,000 credit toward closing costs if she took out a loan with the homebuilder’s banking unit instead. Ms. Calderone, 38, agreed. She deposited $20,000 in earnest money and set aside $80,000 more for a down payment on the $347,000 house. Her closing date, documents show, was scheduled for late summer, about six months later.

Then her troubles began. Although she had been “preapproved” by Pulte, the company ultimately denied her the loan. Then, contending that Ms. Calderone had defaulted on the purchase agreement by failing to close on time, Pulte kept her $20,000 deposit. The house went back on the market.

Read all about it, Preapproved: Well, It Sounded Good

To my knowledge Pulte doesn’t do business in the Foothills, but they do sell homes in other areas of Tucson. Get the word out,

pray for snow, just not for here

Our recent brush with frigid weather withstanding, it wouldn’t merit even a mention compared to what people in the rest of the country have had to endure.

Brett Arends of Wall Street Journal looks at whether the weather is going to drive more sun seekers to live in the warmer climes of the south and southwest.

Here Comes the Sunbelt
WSJ.com

This is Lake Shore Drive in Chicago, heading north for the burbs. What fun, eh. 
For about 20 years I made my way to and from along Lake Shore Drive, often in weather just like this.  And at the time it seemed so normal.

Monster Blizzard Paralyzes Midwest, Albany-snow, sleet, and freezing rain, SEVERE WEATHER ALERT Issued by the National Weather Service,

Amen

equal time

Robert Schiller on the state of the real estate market,

 www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTAiw8LtIbQ

 I like Robert Schiller. He works hard at understanding the market and thinks seriously about what he says. And unlike the various real estate schills out there, the clowns who’ve always got a good yarn to spin, no matter what, Schiller calls it like he sees it. 

thanks to Alan for sending the link,

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to find your Foothills home

a very sad day

and right in our own backyard

Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords shot- Vigil at Capitol

Arizona Rep. Giffords Shot in Tucson

Arizona congresswoman Giffords shot

Dr. Manny- Giffords Likely Faces Long Road to Recovery From Head Wound in Shooting

Former Rep. Grayson to Giffords- Gabby, we don't want to lose you

January 1, 2011

Happy New Year!

economists are increasingly upbeat about the outlook

The New York Times
Eighteen months after the recession officially ended, the government’s latest measures to bolster the economy have led many forecasters and policy makers to express new optimism that the recovery will gain substantial momentum in 2011.

Economists in universities and on Wall Street have raised their growth projections for next year. Retail sales, industrial production and factory orders are on the upswing, and new claims for unemployment benefits are trending downward.

Read all about it> Experts Citing Rising Hopes for Recovery

And not a moment too soon. If things do improve then consumers moods and attitudes will also improve and there should be less uncertainty. And that is bound to have a positive effect on our real estate market here in the Foothills.

Any thoughts.

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