The Catalina Foothills

the market

the Catalina Foothills real estate market is changing, how could it not. Blame it on the rise in interest rates, the falling and volatile stock market, rising inflation, the war in Ukraine and other unsettling world events. 

After more than 18 months with the number of homes for sale running from the low 60's to the mid 80's, which was down about 60 - 70% from normal pre-covid numbers, in the last 10 days or so the inventory has started creeping back up, and today there are 117 single family homes for sale - more than at anytime since November 2020. It's small but it's a start. 

More homes are getting listed even though it's June, one of most unlikely months for new listings. So why now, I'm guessing that some sellers who were on the fence about selling are now, faced with uncertainty about the future, jumping in before it's too late.

Since June 1st 37 homes listed for sale in the MLS had a price cut, whereas, and here I'm going from memory so ..., from January 2021 thru this April, price cuts were about as frequent, and therefore as memorable, as 75° days in June. The MLS does not make data available on price changes beyond the previous 45 days. 

Recent Sold #'s // Sold June 1 - June 24 / 2021 & 2022
June 2021 - 77 homes sold at MSP of $735,250 in 6 DOM
June 2022 - 50 homes sold at MSP of  $832,497 in 4 DOM 

So sold prices appear to be holding up and DOM are staying down
But for both last June and this June the contracts for those sales were made in April - May, with maybe one or two in early June - and therefore the sold numbers reflect where the market was in April - May, not where it is today.  

And perhaps most telling, almost none of the homes listed in the last  few weeks have the showings and seller response times structured to create the silent auction scenario that was so popular last year and earlier this year -- when it was common to see listings with variations of this language;
ALL OFFERS WILL BE REVIEWED ON 2-10-22. BUT SELLER RESERVES THE RIGHT TO ACCEPT AN OFFER PRIOR TO 2-10-22, SO HURRY! 
or this >offers will be reviewed Sunday Jan 16th at 4pm Please offer highest and best and Include an as-is addendum with the offer. or >> Highest & best Offers being accepted until 1/24/22 at noon and seller will review and respond by 1/25/22 at 6pm. Note house is being sold AS IS, buyer understands that seller will NOT do ANY repairs.

Those were the days, 6 to 10 or more offers, many over list price and more than ever before homes were being sold as-is, no repairs. And now, those days are not quite gone but they're dwindling quickly. Good riddance.

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 6/13 - 6/19/2022

From Monday June 6 - Sunday June 12 - 11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 7/22/2022)

2 at $480,000 and $595,000
4 from $620,000 to $895,000
5 from $1,125,000 to $2,950,000

looks like one week contract numbers are up, the next week they're down (scroll down to see the numbers for recent weeks)

DOM is creeping up,13 days for the contracts above, higher than last 18 months

 and the inventory is also creeping up, 98 single family homes for sale today, more than at any time in the last 18 months

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 6/6 - 6/12/2022

From Monday June 6 - Sunday June 12 - 22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 7/18/2022)

5 were listed from $360,000 to $549,000
8 from $630,000 to $900,000
9 from $1,095,000 to $1,999,000

22 in contract is a tidy sum for any time of the year but is especially so for a hot week in June and under the current financial/economic/blankblankblank circumstances.  ** there were 25 in contract but 3 fell out

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract the week of 5/30 - 6/5/2022

From Monday May 30 - Sunday June 5 - just 8 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750  (link expires 7/13/2022

4 were priced from $452,000 to $595,000
3 from $675,000 to $975,000
1 at $1,085,000

And that's it, by far the fewest contracts/week of any week during the last 18 months.

Though it looks like it may have just been 'one of those weeks', because the week before, w/o 5/23 - 5/29 15 went to contract and though I haven't posted it yet so far 25 went to contract last week 6/6 - 6/12.

Stay tuned

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Catalina Foothills Home Sales January - May / 2018 - 2022

Hello and Welcome,

The following charts track the single family home market in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ and include the number of homes sold, median sold prices (MSP) and days on market (DOM) for the period of January 1st thru May 31st of each year from 2018 thru 2022.

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

First up is a chart showing the number of homes sold for up to $999,999, which now comprises about 73% of all the homes sold in the Catalina Foothills. For years and years home sales up to $999,999 comprised about 90% of the foothills market but that started to change in mid 2020 with the arrival of Covid and of Covid buyers. Buyers who were leaving more congested, more expensive cities for the Catalina Foothills and who were prepared to spend more $$ for a home - but with Covid on the rise fewer sellers were willing to list their homes and, as the market tightened and prices rose, they realized that if they did sell they would have an awfully tough time finding and affording a replacement home. All of which led to a shortage of homes for sale, amidst a surge in demand, resulting in fewer sales, bidding wars and rising prices. And that shortage of homes for sale remains to this day - checkout the Market Snapshot for a snapshot of the current  supply & demand in the Catalina Foothills market. 

On the other hand sales at $1,000,000 & UP are Way UP.  Huh, How? Why?
After peaking in 2006 with126 homes sold for $1,000,000+, as the market dropped in 07 and crashed in 08 sales fell to 40 sold in 2009 and bounced along the bottom, with approximately 33 to 53 sold/year until the latter half of 2020 when Covid buyers started snapping them up - resulting in 186 sold for $1,000,000+ in 2021. Also, with home prices up 40+% since 2020, homes that were around $700k back then are now in the $1,000,000 range. 

Low supply - High demand continues to push prices higher

And days on market low

   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

That's it, a snapshot of YTD sales in the Catalina Foothills Single Family Home market.

For more recent info checkout my postings of ".... In Contract last week ..." which show recent contract activity and checkout the Market Snapshot for a breakdown of what's happening in your price range. 

Please contact me if you have a question or would like my help navigating the Catalina Foothills real estate market.
Thanks for stopping by. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

recent list and sold prices, Catalina Foothills Homes

The following are the list and sold prices of the 66 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from
May 1st -  May 31st, 2022 thru the Tucson Association of Realtors® MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona)

the highlighted green numbers are the sold prices of the homes that sold for over list price

Listed	Sold
549,000	650,000
329,900	372,000
340,000	340,000
375,000	385,000
435,000	495,000
458,000	440,000
499,800	525,000
540,000	603,500
549,000	650,000
549,000	565,000
549,000	519,000
549,900	526,000
550,000	555,000
565,000	565,000
575,000	610,000
599,000	650,000
625,000	650,000
625,000	645,000
630,000	600,000
645,000	644,350
645,000	620,000
649,900	778,505
650,000	710,000
650,000	750,000
680,000	755,000
685,000	725,000
689,000	689,000
699,900	673,000
700,000	720,000
725,000	685,000
745,000	873,825
758,000	770,000
760,000	757,000
760,000	910,000
780,000	780,000
795,000	915,000
795,000	811,000
825,000	840,100
839,000	840,000
850,000	975,550
895,000	950,000
925,000	950,000
940,000	910,000
940,000	933,200
950,000	975,000
960,000	950,000
975,000	1,000,000
1,000,000	977,500
1,050,000	1,050,000
1,050,000	1,050,000
1,100,000	1,100,000
1,150,000	1,200,000
1,250,000	1,150,000
1,250,000	1,255,000
1,300,000	1,275,000
1,300,000	1,165,000
1,325,000	1,250,000
1,389,000	1,389,000
1,395,000	1,250,000
1,399,000	1,400,000
1,450,000	1,717,000
1,495,000	1,700,000
1,550,000	1,600,000
1,700,000	1,700,000
1,849,000	1,850,000
3,975,000	3,737,500

66 homes sold in May 2022
(link expires 7/01/2022)

39 (59%) sold for over list price 
  9 (14%) sold  at list price
18 (27%) sold for less than list price

So sales made a very strong showing in May, gosh I'll say, with 59% selling for over list price and the MSP at an all time high of $818,000, and still at just 5 DOM. With that said, please keep in mind that sales are a lagging indicator of the market.. The sales are closing now but the deals, the contracts, that were executed for these sales were likely executed from as early as mid March, for sales that closed in early May to as recently as early May for sales that closed toward the end of May.. 

Contracts being executed now and reported weekly as, "in contract last week ..." along with the Market Snapshot and other current data are a more timely and accurate picture of the current market than are sales based on contracts that were made 30 to 60 days ago. And, as we all know, a lot of not good things have happened in the last 30 - 60 days. 

More facts & figures for May
May 2022;
66 homes sold for $818,000 MSP in 5 DOM - 32 (48%) were cash sales

May 2021;
83 homes sold for $675,000 MSP in 5 DOM - 30 (36%) were cash sales

May 2020;
69 homes sold for $592,500 MSP in 30 DOM - 13 (19%) were cash sales

May 2019;
102 homes sold for $507,375 MSP in 21 DOM - 25 (25%) were cash sales 

PS; there may be a few additional sales that have not yet been turned in, and therefore do not appear here.
I will update as needed in a few days. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Tucson home market overvalued, yet very low chance of prices dropping

hmmm!, that's according to the results of a recent study real estate research firm Core Logic did for FORTUNE magazine.

Keep an eye on these ‘overvalued’ housing markets as the housing boom implodes

BY 

LANCE LAMBERT

May 31, 2022 8:26 AM MST

Fundamental economics tells us that home price growth and income growth are interwoven. Neither can outrun the other for very long. That is what’s concerning about the pandemic’s housing boom: Over the past year, home price growth (20.6%) is four times greater than income growth (4.8%). That disconnect has more economists flirting with the most hated two words in real estate: housing bubble.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi tells Fortune it’s premature to use that term. A bubble, in his mind, would require both speculation-driven price growth and overvaluation...

Read all about it >
Keep an eye on these ‘overvalued’ housing markets as the housing boom implodes

              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 5/23 - 5/29/2022

From Monday May 23 - Sunday May 29 - 15 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750  (link expires 6/30/2022)

7 were priced from $380,000 to $597,500
6  from $615,000 to $925,000
2 @ $1,375,000 to $3,295,000

15 to contract and still moving quickly, in 5 DOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, May 16 - May 22, 2022

From Monday May 16 thru Sunday May 22 - 17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750
(link expires 6/24/2022)

3 were priced from $340,000 to $489,000
7 from $750,000 to $995,000
7 from $1,000,000 to $1,800,00

with temps nearing the triple digits, most snowbirds gone, the stock market still flailing its way down, interest rates still rising, those 17 homes still  managed to go to contract in 7 DOM... a slight increase in DOM from recent weeks

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

very low chance of Tucson home prices dropping

that's  according to a recent study real estate research firm CoreLogic did for Fortune of 392 US markets.

In Arizona, Tucson, Phoenix, Flagstaff and Sierra Vista - Douglas are all rated Very Low (0 - 20%) chance of home prices dropping, whereas Prescott and Lake Havasu City ranked Very High chances (Over 70%) of prices dropping

Read all about it >> The odds of a home price correction just spiked—this interactive chart shows if your local housing market is at risk

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)