The Catalina Foothills

in contract last week, 1/16 - 1/22/2023

From Monday January 16 thru Sunday January 22, 18 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/25/2023)

 2 were priced at $349,000 & $575,000
11 from $600,000 to $850,000
 5 from $1,050,000 to $1,795,000

what difference a week makes,
in the week before last there were just 10 contracts and in the 2 weeks before that there were only 14
Let's call it a slow start to the new year🤞

 

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/9 - 1/15/2023

From Monday January 9 thru Sunday January 15, 10 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/20/2023)

3 were priced from $309,990 to $549,000
4 from $675,000 to $859,900
3 from $1,195,000 to $1,600,000
median DOM is 37 for this group 

Not awful, but nothing to shout about
During the same week last year 19 homes went to contract
During the first 17 days of 2021 46 homes went to contract
During the first 19 days of 2020 57 homes went to contract

Do the math, 2023 comes in dead last

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the times they are a changing

Recent List & Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / January 2023

The following are the Listed and Sold Prices of the 14 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from January 1 - January 15, 2023

I hope that keeping up with Listed/Sold posts and other market info posted to this blog helps you get a sense of where the Foothills market is now and perhaps shines a bit of light on where it may be going.

Caveat #1, The Listed/Sold reports are a snapshot of recent sales during a short 15 day time period and are just one piece of the puzzle that, on their own, are not intended for anyone to rely on as to where the market is or where it may be going.
Caveat #2, while the sales figures shown are for homes sold in the last 15 days the contracts for those sales were made approx 30 to 60 days ago. E.g., sales closing from 1/1 - 1/15 likely went to contract from around early November to mid December and therefore reflects the market as it was back then.

 

Listed	Sold
385,900	352,000
550,000	545,000
599,000	550,000
625,000	600,000
649,000	630,000
650,000	650,000
785,000	763,750
825,000	825,000
850,000	780,000
895,000	850,000
1,400,000	1,274,500
1,550,000	1,500,000
2,100,000	1,900,000
2,250,000	1.900,000

 

See the sold listings for the 14 homes sold  (link expires 2/16/2023)

  0  sold for over list price
  2 (14+%) sold at list price
12 (85+%) sold for less than list price

Quite a different picture from just 2 months ago when more homes sold for list and over list price

And night & day from the market in May 2022

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract the last 2 weeks, 12/26/2022 - 1/08/2023

this post replaces and updates a prior "in contract ... " post dated Jan 6, 2023 that I discovered had incorrect info and has now been deleted.
John Schneider

From Monday December 26 thru Sunday January 8, 14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/13/2023)

4 were priced from $350,000 to $575,000
5 from $600,000 to $965,000
5 from $1,100,000 to $5,500,000

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the ups and downs of the market

An at-a-glance look at Catalina Foothills single family home sales for the last 2 years / Q1 2021 - Q4 2022 / Tucson, AZ 85718 / 85750

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For more detail, scroll down to or click >> 2022 home sales, the numbers

Thanks for stopping by,

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

2022 home sales, the numbers

the following are 2022 Quarterly home sales numbers for the Catalina Foothills market,  85718 / 85750

	# Homes Sold	MSP	DOM	List/Sold Ratio
Q1	207	750,000	6	100%
Q2	208	795,000	5	101.88%
Q3	157	775,000	9	98.57%
Q4	140	741,250	20.5	96.44%

*Q4 figures updated 1/07/2023

The big takeaway, Q4 MSP is the lowest it's been this year - now down -6.76% from its high in Q2. Likewise the # of homes sold - down -32.7% from Q2 - DOM up +310% from Q2.

Q2 was the last hurrah for the super red-hot market and now (with hindsight) we can see clearly that we are transitioning to something else. There are lots of theories out there on what that something else is...... Me, I don't predict, but if I did I wouldn't do it in this muddy market. 

Just 2 weeks ago I reported that the Q4  MSP was down -3.44% from Q2.  And it was. And I expected that it would end the year, more or less, at around -3.44%. But now, just 2 weeks later, the Q4 MSP is down -6.76%. Why, how? because the MSP of the homes that sold during the last 2 weeks of Q4, from 12/16 - 12/31, sold at a MSP of $632,750, thereby dragging down the MSP for Q4 to $741,250 from the $772,500 that it was 2 weeks ago. 

On the bright side the yearly MSP for 2022 is way higher than any other year on record

2022 - $770,000 
2021 - $695,000 
2020 - $567,050
2019 - $495,000
2018 - $485,000
2017 - $445,000
2016 - $417,250
2015 - $429,975
2014 - $425,000
2013 - $413,500
2012 - $390,000
2011 - $400,000
2010 - $411,618
2009 - $438,250
2008 - $520,000
2007 - $540,643
2006 - $570,000
2005 - $515,000
2004 - $408,000
2003 - $352,000
2002 - $322,500
2001 - $305,000
2000 - $290,000

 Happy New Year!

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

The housing market is in a winter freeze ...

says Realtor.com Sr. Economist George Ratiu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=et5DJ_Gt8L0

Much of what George says is also true here in the Catalina Foothills market.

• high mortgage interest rates combined with high list prices, plus the highly inflated cost of everyday goods and services have priced many buyers out of the market. Yet sale prices are staying high due to the continuing shortage of homes for sale.  And the continuing shortage of homes for sale is exacerbated by would-be sellers not wanting to trade their current home and low rate mortgage, for a hard to find high priced home with a much higher rate mortgage. 

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/19 - 12/25/2022

From Monday December 19 thru Sunday December 25, 7 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/27/2023)

1 was priced at $385,900
5 from $695,000 to $895,000
1 at $1,595,000

Ho Ho Ho! 7 sellers & 7 buyers had their Holiday dreams come true

Happy Holidays!

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/12 - 12/18/2022

From Monday December 12 thru Sunday December 18, 11single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/22/2023)

4 were priced $545,000 to $595,000
6 from $625,000 to $850,000
1 at $1,050,000

11 contracts, not bad, better than the week before

Happy Holidays to all

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Waiting for Home Prices to Drop? Bad Strategy

 Bloomberg

By Alexis Leondis

December 13, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST

With mortgage rates  retreating from their highest since 2002 and the US housing market cooling, some buyers are expecting to get a deal next year instead of having to contend with sky-high home prices. Unfortunately, that’s just wishful thinking.

Although most economists think rates have peaked — or close to it — the consensus is that rates will hover around 6.5% or 7% for 30-year fixed mortgages for the foreseeable future.

And on home prices, there’s no reason to think we’ll see big declines any time soon. I surveyed half a dozen economists to find out where home prices are headed in 2023. By and large, most are anticipating prices on average to stay within 5% of where they are now.

One of the most bearish scenarios foresees a 20% drop in prices in 2023. But even analysts who expect a drop of that magnitude think it would be spread out over several years.

That’s little consolation for those who had hoped a big decline in home prices could soften the blow of mortgage rates that have doubled over the last 10 months. Consider this: To keep mortgage payments at the historical share of household income (about 18%), home values would need to drop 39% from where they are currently, according to Zillow.

Continue reading on Bloomberg
may require a subscription

      =====================================================================

As noted in yesterdays post - Foothills Q4 median sold prices are down 3.44% from their peak in Q2 of this year - not terrible, but we'll see where it goes from here. And a good time to see where it goes is right around the corner, the beginning of what has traditionally been our busiest season kicks off in January and runs into May.

And Jan - May is our busy season because 2 things occur- there are more buyers and more sellers in the market. More buyers arrive to buy homes while enjoying our wonderful winter/spring weather and, traditionally, more sellers list their homes for sale during that time because there are more buyers in the market. Supply & Demand.

But if there are too few homes for sale it won't be a very busy busy season. And even now, before the season has begun, there are not enough. And so far there are no signs that a large number of sellers are going to list their homes. And without a sizable increase in inventory there will be more competition for the too small supply of homes which I imagine will keep prices high and once again prove frustrating for buyers. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)