In June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that the overheated U.S. housing market—which saw U.S. home prices rise over 40% in just over two years—needed a “reset.” And higher mortgage rates, he said, would slowly bring “balance” back to the market.
“We saw [home] prices moving up very, very strongly for the last couple of years. So that changes now… I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together,” Powell said.
While Powell was unsure what the Fed’s housing “reset” would mean for home prices, Fortune speculated it meant prices would fall. It looks like we were right.
According to the latest Case-Shiller report published on Tuesday, U.S. home prices fell another 0.8% in September. That marks the third consecutive monthly home price decline since Powell’s June statement. Prior to 2022, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index hadn’t published a month-over-month decline since the housing crash bottomed out in 2012.
This latest Case-Shiller report—which found a 2.2% price decline in U.S. homes since June—means we’ve moved into the second-biggest home price correction of the post–World War II era. On paper, it’s tied with the 2.2% drop between May 1990 and April 1991; however, given that the index is a three-month average, we know the October numbers will surpass that mark. That said, it’s still far below the 26% peak-to-trough decline that occurred between 2007 and 2012.
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Right now the Catalina Foothills single family home market appears to be tilting down. There are fewer sales, more days on market (DOM) and fewer homes selling for list or over-list prices. To me, for now, this appears to be a market that is correcting its course. Correcting from the unsustainable super-hot market that took off in January 2021 and burned bright and hot til several months ago, when it began to burn less brightly. Fewer homes selling, longer DOM and lower Sold/List Price Ratios are key indicators of a cooling market. Lower prices often follow. But where it goes from here is anyone's guess.
2022 Monthly Sold Numbers
| 2022 | # Homes Sold | Median Sold Price | DOM | Sold/List Price Ratio |
| January | 66 | $710,000 | 5 | 100% |
| February | 53 | $715,000 | 5 | 100% |
| March | 88 | $796,669 | 5 | 100% |
| April | 77 | $750,000 | 4 | 103.23% |
| May | 66 | $818,000 | 5 | 101.26% |
| June | 65 | $811,000 | 5 | 101.39% |
| July | 52 | $830,000 | 6 | 99.75% |
| August | 51 | $840,000 | 10 | 99% |
| September | 52 | $710,000 | 13 | 97.49 |
| October | 44 | $737,000 | 14 | 97.22% |
| November | 48 | $822,500 | 20 | 98.12% |
Yep, not a typo, the MSP for November is $822,500
Meanwhile November 2022 sold prices are UP rather than DOWN yet days on market numbers keep climbing even though inventory remains very tight - as shown on the latest Market Snapshot numbers. Nevertheless, I wouldn't bet a nickel on just one months' worth of numbers.
All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)
Thanks for stopping by
John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164
TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)
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