The Catalina Foothills

Catalina Foothills transitioning single family home market

Here's a look at the numbers for home sales, sold prices and days on market for Catalina Foothills single family homes from the 1st Q of 2021, when the red hot market emerged thru the 3rd Q of 2022 as it now transitions to something other than a red hot market. Time will tell what that something is. 

First up is the number of homes sold for up to $999,999.         Sales are down due to (take your pick) A low supply of homes for sale  + high-high list prices for those that are for sale +  whopping increases in interest rates + raging inflation + a volatile and falling stock market + in general a weak economic forecast ...

A somewhat similar scenario at the upper 7figure-end of the market + with many upper-end sales being discretionary purchases, 2nd homes, 3rd homes, don't have to have it now homes, v. buying a home to have a place to live, some upper-end buyers must be asking themselves  ... "why buy now...?"



When now, in the 3rd Q, there is a drop in median sold prices, albeit a small drop from $795,000 to $775,000, -2.5%, a drop that was inevitable given the withering economic environment we are in. Frankly, I'm surprised prices didn't drop sooner and further. And I believe they didn't because, as I mentioned the other day... "the desirable homes are still going quickly due to a shortage of desirable homes for sale - supply & demand flexing its muscles - which is also helping to prop up sale prices which, given the withering economic environment we are in, is quite extraordinary".                                                                                                              But it all went down the drain in September
in July median sold prices were $830,000         
in August median sold prices were $840,00                                 ... in September median sold prices were $710,000 - Yep $710,000 but I don't bank on one months numbers as a reliable predictor of what's ahead.

 
+ an uptick in DOM - though the current DOM, while a few days higher than the last 2 years, are WAY faster than at anytime prior to the red  hot market of the last 2 years 

 

I'm thinking, hoping, the Foothills fall/winter real estate season is going to shine a brighter light on where the Foothills market is headed.  

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 9/19 - 9/25/2022

From Monday September 19 - Sunday September 25,  13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 10/27/2022)

0 homes priced under $600k went to contract (my guess, mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the market)
9 were listed from $629,000 to $989,900
4 from $1,085,000 to $1,800,000

... they went to contract in just 10 median DOM - at the risk of repeating & repeating myself, the desirable homes are still going quickly due to a shortage of desirable homes for sale - supply & demand flexing its muscles - which is also helping to prop up sale prices which, given the withering economic environment we are in, is quite extraordinary.  

Then again, Californians keep coming, every day seeing more  California plates in the foothills. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 9/12 - 9/18/2022

From Monday September 12 - Sunday September 18,  15 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 10/21/2022)

6 were listed from $369,000 to $598,000
5 from $660,000 to $900,000
4 from $1,085,000 to $2,700,000

... and they went to contract in 18 median DOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

the Market Snapshot, then and now

The Market Snapshot is a basic quick-look at the current real estate market in the Catalina Foothills.
It shows the number of homes for sale, in contract and sold in the previous 30 days, with the resulting months of inventory (MOI) broken down into 8 price ranges. 

After I post the Market Snapshot I save it for future reference so, like today, I can look back at what the market was at any time since 2014 and share it. 

The following are Market Snapshots I posted this past January, March, June and September at > Market Snapshot, tracing the arc of the Catalina Foothills market from its red-hot days in January - March/April to its wanning days that started trickling in in April/May and continue thru today. 

First up is the Market Snapshot I posted on January 16, 2022 - showing a raging sellers market at most price points with the exception of $1.5 and $2.0

 

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And a very similar market in March, with a miraculous recovery at $1.5 and $2.0

A slight increase in MOI but not all that different in June

With MOI rising across most price points we're seeing visible signs of a cooling market

The market is getting tugged in two directions.
On one hand there is still a shortage of homes for sale, which is, for now, holding up demand and prices , on the other interest rates are high and going higher as the stock market plunges - severely weakening buyers desire and ability to buy a home.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Recent List and Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / September 2022

The following are the list and sold prices of the 17 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from September 1 - today, September 15, 2022 thru the Tucson Association of Realtors® MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona)

the green numbers are the homes that sold for over list price

Listed	Sold
439,500	439,500
480,000	470,000
599,000	572,500
625,000	597,500
600,000	612,000
625,000	619,500
695,000	625,000
729,000	694,000
775,000	720,000
770,000	745,000
793,000	775,000
999,000	1,050,000
1,100,000	1,125,000
995,000	1,125,000
1,350,000	1,500,000
1,550,000	1,650,000
2,475,000	2,300,000

 

17 homes sold 9/1 - 9/15/2022

6 (35%) sold for over list price

1 (6%) sold at list price

10 (59%) sold for less than list price

 9  (53% ) were cash sales
These 17 went to contract in 9 median DOM - so still awfully quick.

Looks like the formerly red-hot market is continuing to cool.
A higher % of homes are selling for less that list price, a lower % selling at or above list price and the above list sales are, with one exception, huddled at $1mil+ suggesting that mortgage rates are likely cutting into purchasing power at low to mid price points - and it appears that buyers at $1mil+ are finding they still need to bid above list price to get what they want. Or, at least, to get the best of what is available - and the pickings are slim - from $1.0m to $2.0m there are just 30 homes for sale. 

Click >>>  July  Listed/Sold numbers to compare them to todays numbers.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the green numbers are the homes that sold for over list price

Listed	Sold
439,500	439,500
480,000	470,000
599,000	572,500
625,000	597,500
600,000	612,000
625,000	619,500
695,000	625,000
729,000	694,000
775,000	720,000
770,000	745,000
793,000	775,000
999,000	1,050,000
1,100,000	1,125,000
995,000	1,125,000
1,350,000	1,500,000
1,550,000	1,650,000
2,475,000	2,300,000

 

17 homes sold 9/1 - 9/15/2022

6 (35%) sold for over list price

1 (6%) sold at list price

10 (59%) sold for less than list price

 9  (53% ) were cash sales
These 17 went to contract in 9 median DOM - so still awfully quick.

Looks like the formerly red-hot market is continuing to cool.
A higher % of homes are selling for less that list price, a lower % selling at or above list price and the above list sales are, with one exception, huddled at $1mil+ suggesting that mortgage rates are likely cutting into purchasing power at low to mid price points - and it appears that buyers at $1mil+ are finding they still need to bid above list price to get what they want. Or, at least, to get the best of what is available - and the pickings are slim - from $1.0m to $2.0m there are just 30 homes for sale. 

Click >>>  July  Listed/Sold numbers to compare them to todays numbers.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract the last 2 weeks, 8/29 - 9/11/2022

From Monday August 29 - Sunday September 11,  36 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 10/13/2022)

12 were priced from $379,900 to $595,000
17 from $612,000 to $995,000
 7 from $1,050,000 to $2,480,000 

An active 2 weeks for anytime of year but particularly impressive for late summer in a what is supposed to be a declining market.
And with DOM rising, now up to 27 days for this group, sellers will need to be more patient while buyers take a moment to                "think about it". Imagine that!

Last year at this time a similar # of homes went to contract and the DOM had also risen, from 5 DOM to 16. And I wondered if the rise was due to the red-hot market cooling off or the usual seasonal summer slowdown. 
We now know that it was a seasonal slowdown since soon after summer the DOM dropped down to around 5 and pretty much held there until spring/summer of this year.   See last Aug/Sept contracts HERE & HERE

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

The Catalina Foothills real estate market Now

The Market Snapshot was long overdue for an update and I finally did it today.

Going thru the numbers it's obvious that the months of inventory (MOI) are higher now in almost every price range than they were earlier this year and all of last year when, for most price ranges, the MOI was often just 1 or 2 months or less - paving the way to an extreme sellers market, which is exactly what we got.

And while the MOI is higher now it is still much lower than the '6 month rule of thumb' the real estate industry uses as the benchmark of a normal balanced market. With more buyers than there are homes for sale and low MOI, technically it is still a sellers market. But with none of the frenzy, eye popping numbers and extremes of before it doesn't really feel like it. It feels like a shifting market that doesn't know which way to go.

For much of the rest of the USA Labor Day is the end of summer but not for us, aren't we lucky, we still have a few weeks to go. 
And I'm thinking, hoping, the Foothills fall/winter real estate season is going to shine a light on where the Foothills market is headed.  

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

Median Sold Prices, Q1 2021 - Q2 2022 + July-Aug 22

Median sold prices for homes sold in the Catalina Foothills in July-August 2022 are a fraction higher (+0.60%) than they were this July.  And they are 4.4% higher than they were in Q2 and 9.93% higher than they were at the height of the frenzy in Q1 of this year. 

The rate of price appreciation is surely slowing and by now may have, probably has, stopped. But thru August sold prices were holding up and were higher than any previous Q since the start of the frenzy in Q1 of 2021. 

How can that be, with higher interest rates, falling stock market and many other not so positive issues confronting us.. At least part of the reason prices are (or were) holding up is simple supply/demand. There are more buyers than there are desirable homes for sale in foothills. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

August

Amongst the many things August is known for - end of summer, back to school, ripe tomatoes, did you know 22% of Swedish boys are named August. It is also one of the slowest and possibly the slowest month of the year for Real Estate activity, that is for buyers and sellers making deals and putting homes in contract. 

But it is a pretty OK month for home sales from deals that buyers and sellers made in June and July and want to close and move in in August, to get settled and get the kids in school. PS, August is also National Back To School month. 
So let's see how sales this August stack up to August 2020 and August 2021.

August 2020
85 homes Sold / $565,000 MSP / 27 DOM

August 2021
58 homes Sold / $670,000 MSP / 5 DOM

August 2022
51 homes Sold / $840,000 MSP / 10 DOM

for August 2022
the # of homes sold is down 12% from August 2021 & 40% from August 2020
however, the MSP is UP 25% from August 2021 & UP 48.7% from August 2020 
DOM are UP 100% from August 2021 & DOWN 63% from August 2020

All together not a bad August and Cha-Ching! in just 2 years the overall MSP in the Catalina Foothills has soared almost 49% from where it was in August 2020. 

And at $840,000 August 2022's MSP is higher (not lower) than it was this / May - $818,000 / June - $811,000 / and July $825,000......... Go figure!

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 8/22 - 8/28/2022

From Monday August 22 - Sunday August 28,  11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 9/29/2022)

4 were listed from $500,000 to $580,000
4 from $679,000 to $919,900
3 from $1,150,000 to $1,750,000

12 DOM for this group

Not as impressive as the week of 8/15 - 8/21 but still pretty good for August, and with high interest rates and falling, volatile stock market.  

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)