The Catalina Foothills

a quick snapshot of the current Catalina Foothills single family home market

So far this year, (thru 3/10/19);

110 single family homes have sold
at a median sold price of $476,000
in 65 median days on the market

During the same period last year;

140 single family homes sold
at a median sold price of $497,000
in 42 median days on the market 

The numbers reflect a 21% drop in home sales - a 4% drop in median sold prices - and a 55% increase in market time. 
All signs of a weaker market.

And we're in good company;
An article in Bloomberg covering the hottest housing markets states, "For the first time in years, the U.S. is entering its key spring house-hunting season with buyers holding the upper hand. Nowhere is the shift more pronounced than in once-hot areas such as Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, where bidding wars are vanishing, time-on-market is climbing and prices are flattening, or even falling. These western cities, the center of the recent housing boom, are now leading the slowdown"

Granted, a key reason for the slowdown in those formerly hot markets is the insane price increases they've had in the last 6 or 8 years - with prices doubling in Seattle since 2012. While our price increases have been much more sane, and much more modest - Catalina Foothills median sold prices are up just 25% since 2012. 

Nevertheless, we are also experinencing a slowdown this year - Unless, of course, it's a contemporary home. If so those numbers go out the window. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract the last 2 weeks, 2/18 - 3/3/2019

From Monday February 18th thru Sunday March 3rd - 42 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (link expires 4/5/2019)

27 were priced from $355,000 to $599,900
14 from $600,000 to $995,000
1  at $1,169,000
                                          

   On March

Traditionally, March is one of the busiest months for Catalina Foothills single family home sales - and judging by the first 6 days this March is no exception. So far, 18 19 homes have gone to contract in just the first 6 days,

16 contracts are for homes priced from $285,000 to $599,900 + 3 from $624,995 to $950,000. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

people ask, how's the market doing?

well, that depends - there are a few different markets here in the Catalina Foothills, which one are you interested in?

Is it the market for homes listed for up to under $600,000? If so, the answer is the market is strong, it's doing very well -  the inventory is low and activity, contracts and sales are high. 
124 homes for sale - 76 in contract - 36 sold in the last 30 days = a skimpy 3.4 month supply of homes for sale

Above $600k the market is weaker. 

from $600,000 to $999,999 it's a very different picture;
there are 111 for sale (nearly as many as the homes listed up to $599k) but with just 30 in contract - and just 9 sold in last 30 days = a fat 12 month supply of homes for sale. 

at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 the market is even slower;
46 homes for sale - 2 homes in contract - and just 2 homes sold in the last 30 days = 23 month supply of homes at the current rate of sales. 

Contracts are a more accurate picture of currrent market activity than sales, because current sales are the result of deals that were made 30 - 60 days ago while contracts are more recent. 

If we compare the relationship of the number of homes for sale to the number in contract at each price range, it looks like this;
$0 - $599,999 - 124:76 (76 in contract = 61% of the number of homes for sale)

$600,000 to $999,999 - 111:30 (30 in contract = 27% of the number of homes for sale)

$1,000,000 to $1,499,999 - 46:2 ( 2 in contract = 4% of the number of homes for sale)

At $1,500,000 & UP it's pretty much the same, slow, there are 37 homes for sale - 4 in contract - 1 sold in the last 30 days. 

That is the market at this time. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

another record for contemporary homes

In a post last month I talked about how well contemporary homes are selling here in the Catalina Foothills - "... they are selling well. Better, for more $$ and faster than anything else in the same price range" 

And now a home that was recently remodeled (to flip) in the contemporary style in Catalina Foothills Estates 7 - just sold for list price, $729,000, at $259/sf - the highest $$/sf sold price of the 123 homes that have sold in Cat 7 in the last 10 years. 

And it sold quickly too -  just 18 days from listing to contract.
While - during the last 6 months - the average/median days on market in Cat 7  is 110 & 95 days on market. 

Contemporaries, they're hot and they're scarce. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 2/11 - 2/17/2019

From Monday February 11th thru Sunday February 17th - 20 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (link will expire 3/26/2019)

11 were priced from $329,000 to $575,000
6  from $650,000 to $945,000
3  from $1,095,000 to $1,975,000

20 contracts, that's more like it.

First it was political turmoil accompanied by a deep plunge in the stock market. And when that dropped off February greeted us with unusually cloudy, wet and cold weather, none of which sits too well with home buyers here in the Catalina Foothills. But it looks like, maybe, we are now getting back on track. Stand by, we'll soon see. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Contemporary homes are hot

I'm talking pure contemporaries and better yet new or recently built pure contemporaries. Or homes that have been recently renovated and remodeled in the contemporary style. Not Southwestern contemporaries. 

like this. With simple, clean lines 

and this

(the homes pictured above are purely for illustration, they are not homes for sale in Catalina Foothills)

Here in the Catalina Foothills we're seeing more contemporaries, mostly at the upper price ranges, from about $900,000 and UP. And they are selling well. Better, for more $$ and faster than anything else in the same price range. 

Of the 4 homes in contract in pima canyon, 3 are contemporaries. There was a 4th contemporary in contract but it fell out. 
I pick Pima Canyon because it is the subdivision most likely to have newer contemporaries because it is the subdivision that had and probably still has more buildable lots than any other high-end gated subD in the Catalina Foothills. 

A brand new contemporary sold in Pima Canyon last September for $2,331,000 ($420/sf) before it even hit the market. 
A contemporary sold last month after just 11 days on the market in Skyline CC for $1,450,000 ($437/sf) - I saw that and thought WOW! $437/sf. So I went back to 1995 and since then 346 homes have sold in Skyline and $437/sf is the highest $/sf sold price in 23 years. The next highest is was a sale in 2006 for $393/sf.

A contemporary in a non-gated area located on a lot that is, in my opinion, way too close to a busy road, went to contract recently. 

last year a contemporary located in Flecha Caida Ranch Estates sold for $1,250,000 ($312/sf) - the most expensive home sold in Flecha in the last 8 years. And at $1,250,000 it's head and shoulders above the $395,000 median sold price and $154/sf median sold price of the 197 homes sold in Flecha in the last 8 years. 

Contemporaries, they're hot and they are scarce. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

 

Reuters says, "...existing home sales fall sharply ..."

Uh oh, ... existing home sales fall sharply ..., say it isn't so. 

That's the headline, in the body of the story Reuters goes on to say ".... The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday existing home sales dropped 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million units last month."

Dropped 1.2%, geeewhiz, I didn't realize that a 1.2% drop is a... fall sharply .... drop. Did you.

Oh well, it makes for a catchy headline.

The home sales story for January here in the Catalina Foothills is not quite as dramatic 

50 homes sold last January and 50 homes sold this January. Boring but true.

Though there is a difference in sold prices and days on market between last Jan and this Jan. 

Last Jan 50 homes sold for a median sold price of  $539,500 in 35 DOM
This Jan 50 homes sold for a median sold price of  $508,000 in 62 DOM

My opinion; one month is much too short a time period to draw any conclusions about the ups and downs of sold prices. Give it 3 or 4 months and a more accurate and reliable picture of the market will begin to emerge.  

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 2/4 - 2/10/2019

From Monday February 4th thru Sunday February 10th - JUST 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (link expires 3/19/2019)

7 were priced from $299,900 to $500,000 -   after 38 average & 46 median 'days on market' DOM
5 from $618,000 to $650,000 -  after 21 average & 8 median DOM 
1 at $1,550,000 -   after 673 DOM

I say JUST 13 single family homes ... because 13 is unusually low for this, usually busy, time of year. On the other hand the long run of cold, cloudy, damp weather we've been having is also unusual and may have something to do with the lack of activity. Imagine you are a snowbird here for a few weeks to find a warm roost for the winter, and instead you encounter the cold, cloudy, damp weather that we've been having. Could it possibly cause you to reconsider or at least wait to see if the weather breaks and improves. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Catalina Foothills Sold Prices, from peak to trough to now

If you read this blog you have very likely heard that Catalina Foothills single family home prices dropped 31% from their peak in 2006 to their bottom in 2012. And since then (6 years lateer)  prices have risen 25%, resulting in a drawn-out and tepid price recovery.  ($570,000 in 2006 dropped to $390,000 in 2012 rose to $488,000 in 2018)

But the good news is prices rose more in the last 2 years than they did in the previous 4 years - up 6.6% in 2017 & up 9.6% in 2018  v. a total rise of 7% for the years 2012 thru 2016. So the pace of price increases has incresed. 

And those numbers are accurate, but they represent all the homes sold in all areas and subdivisions throughout the Catalina Foothills. And as I’ve also mentioned before, ‘…prices across the foothills do not march in lockstep. Some areas, price ranges and even individual homes, perform better or worse than others’.

So here’s a look at how much better or worse individual subdivisions performed during the peak year 2006 to the bottom in 2012 and then in 2018. The following figures are median sold prices for all single family homes sold in each subdivision during the full year shown.

Under the sold price is the % change from 2006 to 2012 and from 2012 to 2018.      
Click any of the highlighted subdivision names to see all the homes currently for sale. 
** indicates just one home sold

Subdivision	2006	2012	2018
All Foothills Sales	$570,000	$390,000 -31%	$488,000 +25%
Shadow Hills	$633,750	$425,000  -33%	$583,700 +37%
Pima Cyn	$1,766,500	$1,082,500  -39%	$1,150,000 +6%
Sin Vacas	$915,000	$625,000  -32%	$670,000 +7%
Catalina Fthls 1-9	$677,500	$530,000 -22%	$638,500 +20%
Catalina Fthls 10	$1,200,000	$992,500 -17%	$905,000 -9%
La Paloma	$675,000	$417,500 -38%	$522,402 +25%
Cobblestone	no sales	$1,004,965**	$887,500 -12%
Canyons	no sales	2,100,000	$1,550,000** -26%
Hacienda del Sol	$1,200,000	$767,500  -36%	$932,500 +21%
Foothills ll	$1,062,000	$979,750 -8%	no sales
Pinnacle Ridge	$952,500	$651,000 -32%	$779,000 +20%
Skyline CC	$1,000,000	$641,000 -36%	$851,500 +33%
Skyline Bel Air	$597,250	$345,500  -42%	$481,000 +39%
Alta Vista	$1,050,000	$845,000  -19%	$791,250 -6%
Cimarron	$722,500	$435,000 -40%	$490,500 +13%
Coronado Fthls Est	$608,750	$390,000 -36%	$569,000 +46%
Flecha Caida	$528,500	$343,000 -39%	$562,500 +82%
Fairfield	$560,000	$360,000 -35%	$444,500 +23%
Villages of Ventana	$485,000	$341,500  -19%	$398,500 +17%
Ventana CC	$1,036,250	$569,500 -45%	$694,500 +22%
Sabino Mountain	$839,250	$319,950 -62%	$541,500 +69%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sold prices sure didn't march in lockstep, they’re all over the lot, both in how far they fell and how much they’ve recovered.
This has been a painfully slow recovery, it's been six years since prices hit bottom and we still haven't gotten back to where prices were 12 years ago. 

One thing is for sure, buyers are much more price conscious these days than they were in 2004 - 2007, much more. Back then, because prices were rising so quickly, buyers were afraid  not to buy. Which lead to rampant price increases that are so far proving to be impossible to attain. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 1/28 - 2/03/2019

From Monday January 28th  thru Sunday February 3rd - 22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (link expires 3/12/2019)

18 were priced from $218,000 to $525,000
4 from $629,000 to $725,000
and that's it!

hmmm, nothing above $725k

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home