The Catalina Foothills

crunching the numbers

Last week, in a post titled a case for a good agent I wrote about how I had just botched a deal to buy a home in the Tucson Foothills, a home for me and my wife. We sold our home in the Tucson Foothills six months ago, and we've been looking since then. I wrote, ...from the minute we walked in, we knew. It had that certain something, for us it was special...Just our luck, Brand new listing, priced high in a slow market - two showings and two offers in less than 24 hours...The other agent wrote a full-price offer. They got the house, and we didn't. ...I wish I could do that day over...
And for days that's all I wished and hoped for, please, let me do that day over, I promise,I'll get it right this time.

Your edge in Real Estate?

On their website Zillow makes the following claim, In Big Print at the top of the page
Free, Instant Valuations and Data for 67,000,000+ Homes
A little further down the page Zillow tells us why we should use them
Why Use Zillow
>Buyers: Compare values to avoid overpaying
>Sellers: Use our tools to help set a price
>Owners: Track your most important asset
That seems like a simple, straightforward and unambiguous claim.
But a lot has been written about the claims that Zillow makes, and much of it has called the accuracy of those claims into question. I did a post about it back in August new ways to value your home, and your neighbors and I netted out by saying ...I think that at this point these are interesting, innovative services that are fun to play around with, and that may be useful in providing a broad value range. But I also think that Zillow and Reply should back off on the claims they each make on their homepages...or at the very least provide a big warning on the homepage that advises people that these valuations cannot be counted on to be accurate - Do Not make financial decisions based on them. It's too important.
And now, from RealtyTimes via Yahoo
Zillow Gets FTCillowed
...the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC,) which has just filed a consumer protection complaint to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) alleging that "Internet financial services and real estate provider Zillow.com is misleading consumers, real estate professionals and financial service providers in on-line home valuations."
Zillow responds, "We believe these allegations are groundless. As we say consistently and prominently on our Web site, Zillow is a free research tool for consumers, and Zestimates are designed to be a starting point for consumers who want to learn about the value of homes. We make every effort to explain on our site the role of Zestimates as a research tool, as well as to clearly display our rates of accuracy for every area we cover."

in the nick of time

Michael and Vivian were clients of mine during the last year and a half. They owned a very comfortable home here in Tucson, but now that their kids were grown they yearned for a different kind of home. Something more adult, more suited to just the two of them, maybe something with a bit more pizazz. But they weren't in a rush, and ultimately they only wanted to buy a new home if we could find just the right one, and of course, at the right price. I understood exactly what they wanted and I would call them whenever something came on the market that I thought they should see. This went on for about 18 months, and in that time we probably looked at only 6 or 8 homes, that's it. I knew what they wanted and I was very selective in what I showed them, and while we came very close a couple of times, we still didn't hit the bulls-eye.
After about 18 months, Michael called to tell me that they'd decided to stay in their current home, do some remodeling and renovations and forget about moving. They apologized for all the time I'd put in but decided that they just couldn't afford what they really wanted, so they were going to stay put. I felt bad, but it happens.

shakin' up the MBA

From RealtyTimes via Yahoo
Robbins Calls for Personal Commitment
The new chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association has called for an "industry-wide commitment to personal responsibility." John Robbins said the "industry must take a leadership role so our customers receive the best information possible, allowing them to make an educated decision on the mortgage program they have selected."
The 34-year veteran on the mortgage business has established a special task force to develop recommendations for an industry-wide disclosure document.
I wrote about the need for a disclosure document last month in Confessions of an Ex-Mortgage Lender. This seems like a simple, no-brainer first step on the road to a better informed consumer and more accountability by lenders.
And Robbins doesn't duck the responsibility for the negative publicity lenders have received, ...the new MBA leader said the real culprits are those wrote the loans.
Read on- Robbins Calls for Personal Commitment
I wish this guy luck, he's saying the right things.

a (big) niche market

In other posts on this blog and on my website I've often described the Tucson Foothills as a niche market. I've called it a niche market because it is relatively small- both physically and in terms of the number of homes available for sale- compared to other areas of Tucson. A niche market because it is more expensive than other areas of Tucson, and because there are a higher percentage of second home, retirement and luxury homeowners in the Tucson Foothills, than other areas of Tucson.
But niche market indicates a distinct segment of a market, or a market that has a very narrow and specific appeal. In this case, as if it were all champagne and caviar.
And I started thinking that my use of niche market, more expensive than this and higher percentage of that was contributing to a very narrow, one-sided impression of the Tucson Foothills. And that I was unintentionally and inaccurately characterizing the Foothills as a kind of bastion of wealth populated by rickety rich folks putt-putting around in golf carts.
And that's not so.
And I'm not alone in this, many others contribute to this impression with a very la-di-da marketing approach to everything that is the Foothills. Heck, on their website the Northern Pima County Chamber of Commerce has this to say about the Foothills- 'It's not much of a stretch to consider the Catalina Foothills the Beverly Hills of Pima County.  The southern foothills of the Santa Catalina Mountains have been drawing the nation's wealthy to them for more than 80 years, building huge luxury homes with spectacular views of the Tucson valley.'
It's a huge stretch, the Tucson Foothills have about as much in common with Beverly Hills as it does with Nome, Alaska.
Yes we have our share of exclusive communities. But the Foothills is home to a diverse population who enjoy different lifestyles, with a wide choice of homes for sale in many different types of communities, and in a broad range of prices.

an Open House watchout

Bill Quick over at the San Francisco Real Estate Blog did a post called Better Safe than Sorry on the dangers of theft related to Open Houses. It's on eye-opener for agents and owners.

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/22

Here's the broad picture of sales activity - from the Tucson Assoc of Realtors MLS, for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills, during the past two weeks, that's 10/9 thru 10/22.
This activity took place against a base of 407 homes currently listed for sale (priced from $225,000 - $22,000,000)
New Listings = 60 (priced from $259,900 - $3,250,000)
Homes gone under contract = 27 (priced from $305,000 - $1,250,000)
Homes Sold = 17 (priced $360,000 - $2,950,000)
Price Reductions = 41
Price Increases = 1
Expired Listings = 14
Withdrawn Listings = 14
In the current 2 week period, compared to the previous two weeks, there have been-
20 less New Listings
  7 less homes have gone under contract,
  4 less have Sold
14 less Price Reductions
  2 less Price Increases
  1 less Expired Listings
15 less Withdrawn Listings
In this two week period all the activity is less than in the previous two weeks, whereas in the previous two weeks all the activity was more than in the two weeks previous to it. Another see-saw. I started posting these two-week updates back in July, and since then the sales numbers have fluctuated - up during one period and down the next, with no real observable trend. The one exception to that - since July the number of homes listed for sale has grown from a low of 356 to the current high of 407, an increase of 14%.
'til next time,
Sales #'s for previous 2 week periods
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/8
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/24
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/10
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/27
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/13
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 7/30

the scuttlebutt

I hear from local Tucson mortgage lenders that they've been seeing a pretty big increase in loan inquiries and pre-qualification requests from Tucson home buyers during the last week or so. Stay tuned?

median home prices in Tucson

The Arizona Daily Star brings us the latest numbers for Tucson home prices,
Median used-home cost lowest since June '05

2 to ponder

Two stories from CNN.com with implications for the housing market,
Beware: More Fed hikes may be coming
Inflation is still worrisome enough that more rate increases, not cuts, could follow the Fed's 'pause.'
The bear is in your house
The real estate slump changes how you should look at your biggest asset - and the rest of your portfolio

a case for a good agent

In the past I've done a few posts about the fact that my wife and I have been looking for a home to buy in the Tucson Foothills-we sold ours a few months ago and have been living in a rental. And I'm a Realtor who specializes in Tucson Foothills homes, so I'm our agent for our home search.
Yesterday we went to look at a home that had just come on the market, a brand new listing. And from the minute we walked in, we knew. It had that certain something, for us it was special. And although it lacked some practical features that all along we've said were essential, with this house, not only were we willing to give up those essentials, we almost didn't realize they were missing. This was the one.
But I was a little concerned because this home was priced high based on $/SqFt. There are larger, more expensive homes in the area, but this one was quite a bit higher than the highest sale price in the area, based on $/SqFt. And even though this home was special, in this slower market, I thought that just didn't make sense. I got really hung up on that.

But we figured this home would probably sell quickly anyway, so we rushed home to write an offer. When I called the listing agent to let him know that, he told me that another agent had shown the house and that this other agent was also going to write an offer. This should have cleared our heads, but instead it raised the emotional level a notch or two.
Just our luck. Brand new listing, priced high in a slow market - two showings and two offers in less than 24 hours.
I wrote a good offer, but it was about 3% under list price. It wasn't that I was trying to save money, I just got wrapped up in thinking that I wasn't going to write a full-price offer in this market, and that I'd be foolish if I did. I lost sight of what was really important, that we wanted to buy this house, and that it was special, and that another offer was coming in. I'd have gladly paid full price, the house was worth it to us, but I couldn't see the forest for the trees, I got stuck in the fine print, and wasn't looking at the big picture.
The other agent wrote a full-price offer. They got the house, and we didn't.
Of course in hindsight I wish I could do that day over.

I hate to admit this, but I'm convinced that I would have done better if we'd had a good agent representing us. Someone who was impartial and not as emotionally involved as we were. Yes I'm an agent, but in this situation I was the buyer, and along with my wife we were dealing with the tangled web of emotions that most home buyers deal with.
The kind of emotions that can effect your thinking and your ability to make good decisions.
A good agent would have peeled back the layers and helped us to see what was important, they would have put things in perspective, and then guided us to do what we needed to do to get the deal done, and get the house.

the new season

I did an Open House today, as I have for the last three or four Sundays. I'm probably in the minority here, but I like doing open houses. I find that they're a great way to add exposure to your listings-particularly for the buyers out there who are not working with an agent- and I like meeting the people who are out looking and getting a feel for what's on their mind, what they're thinking and how they feel about the market in my part of town. It's free hands-on research on the pulse of the local housing market and you can't get that on the internet, not yet anyway.
Here in Tucson we're entering our season, our best time of year. The weather is gorgeous, the AC is off til next summer, with daytime temps of 75 to 85, just as the weather back east is starting to dip below the comfort zone. Winter visitors and second home owners are arriving daily and Tucson businesses are throwing open their doors to welcome them.
And in the Tucson Foothills, a big chunk of our home sales are to second homeowners and retirees, so the winter season - October thru May- is when it really happens.
My open houses during the last few weeks have been very busy with an almost constant stream of visitors. And while I can't always tell who's window shopping and who's a real buyer, there's been a lot of activity. And quite a few people spent a lot of time at the house and asked a lot of questions, like interested buyers, not like window shoppers. But the one question that was on everyones mind, and that they weren't shy about voicing, was price. Price vis-a-vie where the market is, and where it's going. There's uncertainty in buyers minds, they'd like to buy a home, but they're hesitant, and they're weighing the pros and cons of buying vs. waiting. On the other hand, they recognize a well-priced home when they see one and those are selling quickly in the Foothills.
And though my observations have yet to translate into brisk sales, it's hard for me to reconcile the activity and the interest that I'm seeing in the Foothills with the gloom and doom predictions for home sales that we've all been hearing. I'm not denying that home sales have been slower this year than last, certainly they have. But home sales in the Tucson Foothills didn't really start to fall off until about late April/May, and May is near the end of our season. So what happens now, October thru May, is going to be a more accurate gauge of how healthy this market is than what has happened over the summer months.
Stay tuned.

STOP the presses

A couple of days ago I did a post (fanning the flames) on how the Big media has distorted the upside AND the downside of the real estate market in the last few years.
Now in an latimes.com story titled Some robust stats contradict the market-gone-bust reports two economists offer their views on the influence of the media.
...Mike Moran, chief economist of Wall Street's Daiwa Securities America, minces no words: The financial press and TV news shows are over-dramatizing what is a normal and long-predicted cyclical re-balancing, and "portraying it as a catastrophe," he said
Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Assn., ... Serious sellers and buyers shouldn't be misled by predictions of imminent crashes, Duncan said. Not only do the doom reports ignore the positives out there in the marketplace — mortgage rates in particular — but also "the rhetoric is just way overwrought."
Amen
And there's more, and this is where the stats come in, from no less a heavyweight than Donald L. Kohn, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman. Some robust stats contradict the market-gone-bust reports (registration is required but free)
This story was picked up today, Sunday, by the Arizona Daily Star, our hometown Tucson paper, they changed the headline but it's the same story and available here
Don't worry, housing market is OK
no registration required,

fanning the flames

                                             was this THEN
Business: National home sales hit a record 6.1-million
BUYERS GRAB 6.94 MILLION PREVIOUSLY OWNED UNITS
Existing homes set records in terms of sales and prices in June
USATODAY.com Feb. new-homes sales climb 9.4%, biggest jump in 4 years
April existing home sales soar past targets to record level
Housing market showing little sign of slowing...
How high can they go? / Single-family homes' overall median price ...

                                            is this NOW
Emaciated sales leave area real estate agents hungry for business
Forecast sees housing prices falling - Yahoo! News via Moodys.com
How low will real estate go? - Buying a House - MSN Real Estate
Real Estate Recession Coming - September 12, 2006 - The New York Sun 
New-home prices likely to fall for 1st time since '91
Report sees double-digit declines in home prices
US home prices to fall next year too - Moody's

None of this news was accurate back then, and it's not accurate now, for most states or cities and towns across the US. Some of it was true to some degree in some places, some of the time. But that's about it. At best it's a generalization or perhaps, dare I say it, it's sensationalism. It's what the big media does. But when we're inundated with news like this day after day - whether it's good news or not so good news - it's almost impossible to remember that real estate is local and that what's happening in Talahassee has little or nothing to do with Tucson. But this barrage of headlines from the media is influencing the decision-making of buyers and sellers in local markets, and often to their detriment. One of the side-effects of this media blitz is that local markets are becoming a little less local because the news is fostering a kind of herd thinking.
In Tucson, home sales are generally slower this year than they were last year. But some parts of town and some price ranges are doing better than others, some are doing even better than last year. And I'll bet that's true in many cities and towns across the US.
So don't make your decision to buy or sell a home based on what you hear from the media. Get a true current picture of your market, find out how homes are selling where you live, in your price range, in your part of town. 
For a bit of perspective, plus the latest on Tucson Foothills Home Sales, check out;
Foothills Market Trends &
The Latest-Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/8
It's accurate, it local and it's up to date.
It was THEN and it is NOW.                                    

Tucson Foothills Luxury Homes

The Tucson Foothills Luxury Home market may be on the way to setting another record. Today a $4,100,000 home went PENDING, and if it closes anywhere near list price it'll be the highest sale price in the Tucson Foothills thru the Tucson Assoc of Realtors MLS.
View Listings
Despite the overall sluggishness of the home market, the luxury end has been doing better than ever in the Tucson Foothills.

the great divide

There's a great divide in the real estate industry.
I'm talking about the divide between those real estate agents who are using the latest technology to learn, acquire and do business, and those who are not. And it's a very lopsided divide, with relatively few agents on the technology side of the aisle, while the majority seem to ignore technology or make believe it doesn't exist. Seems like they don't care about learning how technology can help them despite the overwhelming evidence that consumers care about it, and are using it in staggering numbers to more efficiently find, become more informed about and to conduct their real estate transactions. And despite the flurry of new technology-based real estate models that offer consumers new services, information and new ways of doing business that often don't include a real estate agent.
This is not like the dotcom boom of the late 90's with its wildly inflated expectations for transforming the world. This technology is here and it's being adopted and used by ordinary people every day, and it's getting better all the time. It's not going to go away.
Are Zillow, Reply.com, Propertyshark or Craigslist going to wipe the traditional real estate companies off the map? I don't think so. I believe that most people are still going to want the help and advice of a good Realtor with such a large and complicated transaction.
But the benefits of technology and the innnovations being introduced by the Zillows et al are attractive to many consumers, and increasingly these innovations will have far-reaching effects, directly or indirectly, on the way homes are bought and sold and who facilitates those transactions.

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/8

Here's the broad picture of sales activity - from the Tucson Assoc of Realtors MLS, for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills, during the past two weeks, that's 9/25 thru 10/8.
This activity took place against a base of 394 homes currently listed for sale (priced from $225,000 - $22,000,000)
New Listings = 80 (priced from $159,000 - $2,950,000)
Homes gone under contract = 34 (priced from $235,000 - $1,199,000)
Homes Sold = 21 (priced $240,000 - $1,813,000)
Price Reductions = 55
Price Increases = 3
Expired Listings = 15
Withdrawn Listings = 29
In the current 2 week period, compared to the previous two weeks, there have been-
18 more New Listings
11 more homes have gone under contract,
  4 more have Sold
  5 more Price Reductions
  3 more Price Increases
  4 more Expired Listings
18 more Withdrawn Listings
Everything is more in this period, more- new listings - under contract - sold - price reductions...
Those are all good mores
Particularly good is that Sellers continue to adjust their list prices to reflect current market conditions spurring increased sales. In the last two weeks I've seen more homes being listed for current fair market prices, and many of those homes have sold in less than a week.
There are buyers out there and they want to buy a home, and they will – When The Price is Right
'til next time,
Sales #'s for previous 2 week periods
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/24
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/10
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/27
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/13
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 7/30

how do you take it, live or online

This week I'm taking the 24 hours of continuing education classes that are required by the Arizona Department of Real Estate so that I can renew my real estate license at the end of this month.  I waited until the last minute, I always do, so now I'm hustling to get it done. And I'm doing it online.
The online classes are really convenient because you can do them anytime you want, 24/7. You can start and stop them at your whim, take a lunch break, do an hour at 4 in the morning if you can't sleep, and pick it back-up at 9 that night.
And if you've got a lot of stamina you're allowed to do up to 9 hours in one day, that's three classes per day, so in three days you're done.
I don't have that kind of stamina, I'm doing one class a day.
It's very convenient. All you need is a computer with a high speed connection and a quiet place where you can concentrate.

sell in the market you're in

There is a record high inventory of homes for sale in Tucson and elsewhere.
If you want to sell your home in this market, you need to stand out, you need to look better than the competition. Not comparable, not the same, better.
If you're the same, you're one of many.
If you stand out, you're the only one.
Here's some good advice from Realty Times for people who really want to sell their home in todays market, Read it Here
And likewise very timely advice from the Motley Fool -
The Wrong Side of a Real Estate Slump
Plus a recent, and more personal piece that I did on this same topic regarding Tucson homes.
When the price is Right

shameless self-promotion

Once again I have to tip my hat to Jay The Phoenix Real Estate Guy for sparking an idea for me. He recently did a piece on The Ultimate Real Estate Portal and as I read it I'm thinking, well, we have that, and we have that too, and that.  Most of the great features available on my web site are courtesy of Long Realty - the company I work for here in Tucson - and the great tech team they have on staff. And after investigating other company & agent sites around the country, I realize two things. That I've taken for granted all the great features that Long Realty has made available to it's agents, and that we have one of the best, most complete and easiest to use real estate web portals available.
All these features are available from my web site www.TheFoothillsToday.com and from the Long Realty site www.LongRealty.com and on the web sites of all other Long Realty agents.
Two key features of the sites-
-When a consumer goes to a Long Realty site to do a search they'll see all the homes available in Southern Arizona that are listed for sale - by all real estate companies and agents, not just Long Realty listings. Everything that's in the MLS is on the site.
-And they can search as much and as often as they want and get all the information on all the properties without signing in or registering - no strings attached.

Home Sales take another hit

In a sure to shake things up report out today, Moody's Economy.com a private research firm, presents one of the starkest views yet of the housing slowdown that has been gathering force in recent months.
The 195 page report "Housing at the Tipping Point," projects that 133 of the nation's 379 metropolitan areas would suffer price declines.
As reported by Yahoo.com >
Economy.com Forecasts Historic Home Price Decline

And the local Tucson home angle based on this report, in the AZ Daily Star >
13.4% drop seen in median home price here by '08
-check out the reader comments at the end of the AZ Star Story

The Tucson Real Estate Market

Rosey Koberlein, CEO of the Long Companies, including Long Realty where I work, offers a refreshing perspective on the current market for Tucson homes in an article in todays AZ Daily Star.
"After an unprecedented period of record-setting sales and appreciation, Tucson has moved toward a more evenly paced market. Issues of market value, property condition, location and terms are once again in play. Despite the fact that purchases are still being made at near-record rates, with scant evidence of a bursting real-estate bubble, the recent changes in real estate have perpetuated major myths in the marketplace."
Read it here, Homeowner can benefit from market's breather

out of town buyers

Over the last few years a lot of my business has come from the internet, from my web site, representing people from out of town who would like to buy a home in Tucson.
This has been very good for me, really very rewarding and enjoyable. For me it's very gratifying when people put their trust in me. And I understand how difficult it must be for someone to put this very important transaction in the hands of a stranger.
In turn I do everything that I can to understand what's important to them and to educate and really help them understand the homes in Tucson, the market, and the pros and cons of everything involved in buying a Tucson home.

Usually what happens is I get a call or an email, but usually a call, from someone who lives somewhere else in the country and they're interested in buying a home in Tucson. And we talk for quite a while about what, where, and when they would like to buy.
And we talk about me, kind of sussing eachother out to see if we're compatable.
If that goes well we set a date a month or so down the road when they'll come to Tucson to look at homes. In the meantime I'll email them property listings and we'll talk about those listings and eventually begin to zero-in on what it is they might like to buy. When they arrive in Tucson we go out and look at homes, sometimes for a few days, and sometimes longer before we find the just right one.