The Catalina Foothills

moving day

Tomorrow is moving day for me and my wife. Today (finally) we closed on our new house. The house is new to us, but it's not new, it's a burnt adobe built in 1971 in the central Foothills area of Tucson. And I say finally because we've been between homes for seven months now. We sold our last house back in May, and it's taken us this long to find one that we really wanted to buy. That seems incredible, almost 7 months to find a home, and we looked at everything that came along that was even remotely possible.
It was a very frustrating experience, looking & looking but not finding - until now, but it was worth the wait, this house is us.
Buying or selling a home for yourself is a good thing for a real estate agent to experience every once in a while, it helps you really understand what your clients go thru, dealing with the same issues, deadlines and emotions, and consequences that they do. The last time I bought a home was six years ago, and I forgot what it's really like. This experience reminded me how much more there is to it when you're the actual buyer, and I know that it will make me more sensitive to all those less tangible issues that my clients deal with.
Someone should devise a class that deals with these issues, a class that puts you in touch with the process, the thinking, the emotion of buying and selling a home from the point of view of buyers and sellers. Kind of a psychology 101 of understanding buyers and sellers. It would be a terrific continuing education class that would help agents be more sensitive, more understanding and therefore more helpful to their clients.
There are lots of classes about how to make a sale, or capture leads, convert leads, and answer and overcome objections, but nothing about understanding what's really going on below the surface when your clients buy or sell a home.

Is the Worst Over for the Housing Bust

From Realty Times via Yahoo.com a commentary on the recent Wall Street Journal article- "Is the Worst Over for the Housing Bust?" According to the author of this commentary,
"After scaring homeowners, buyers and sellers witless for the last three years, the financial press and stock analyst economists contributed mightily to the decline of housing in 2006,.." "...inventories have built up largely due to the shock of interest rates moving up, to a seven and a half month supply, but the steady drumbeat of print and broadcast media has had just as much of an inhibiting effect on homebuyers"
I wrote about this same WSJ article in my post quick turn around and that's what I found and find so incredible, the quick turnaround. 'The worst of the housing bust is over, economists said by nearly 2-to-1 in the latest WSJ.com economic forecasting survey'.
But the writer of this Realty Times piece goes into more detail about interest rates and this and that and picks the article apart more than I did. It's a good read. And I agree completely that the gloom & doom media blitz has had a numbing effect on the real estate market, but now, as I said 'the media just needs a new angle, because the gloom and doom angle has been worn thin, it's just not selling news anymore'. But this latest effort is lukewarm news, reported half-heartedly, and I don't expect they'll make much headway with it.

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 11/23

Here's a snapshot of sales activity - for Single Family Homes in the Tucson Foothills, during the past two weeks, that's 11/10 thru 11/23.
This activity took place against a base of 395 homes listed for sale (priced from $219,900 - $22,000,000)
New Listings = 57 (priced from $235,000 - $2,595,000)
Homes gone under contract = 25 (priced from $287,000 - $2,595,000)
Homes Sold = 24 (priced $280,000 - $2,400,000)
Price Reductions = 32
Price Increases = 1
Expired Listings = 15
Withdrawn Listings = 22

In the current 2 week period, compared to the previous two weeks, there have been-
  7 more New Listings
  4 more homes have gone under contract,
  1 less Sold
14 less Price Reductions
13 less Price Increases
  1 less Expired Listing
  4 less Withdrawn Listings
The sales activity for Tucson Foothills Homes continues at a reasonably healthy pace, and it's encouraging that it is doing well across all price ranges. And Online home search activity is up, as buyers shop for homes in anticipation of making a purchase after the holidays (we'll see), which is traditionally the start of our big season here in the Tucson Foothillls.

Sales #'s for previous 2 week periods
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 11/9
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/22
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/8
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/24
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/10
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/27
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/13
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 7/30
*all sales data is based on sales thru the Tucson Assoc of Realtors MLS

Happy Thanksgiving

Take a welcome day off and Enjoy your Thanksgiving Day.
Thanksgiving Traditions and Trivia  from About.com

quick turn around

Wasn't it just yesterday that we were being bombarded with endless gloom and doom stories from the media about the bubble the bust the crash of the real estate market.
Well suddenly there's sunshine, from the Wall Street Journal Online

Is the Worst Over for the Housing Bust?
Economists Say 'Yes' in New WSJ.com Survey
But Their Views on Home Prices Vary Wildly
Subscription Required for access.
'The worst of the housing bust is over, economists said by nearly 2-to-1 in the latest WSJ.com economic forecasting survey. But they still predict that the average selling price of a house will fall next year.'
"We're nearing the end of the slowdown for most markets," said Ethan S. Harris at Lehman Brothers.
Richard DeKaser, an economist at National City Corp., a big mortgage provider, said he thinks the worst is over. "We're starting to see inventories topping out and possible declining," he said.
Allen Sinai, at Decision Economics Inc., believes the worst of the bust is over, but he feels housing remains a big risk to the economy.
How does this big ship turn around so quickly. Makes you wonder. Or is it that it was just never so, and David Lereah had it pegged from the beginning, in which case a lot of us owe Mr. Lereah an apology, he took all that poo-pooing with such good humor.
Or is it that the media just needs a new angle, because the gloom and doom angle has been worn thin, it's just not selling news anymore. So they dig up a bunch of economists who'll put a fresh spin on the situation. But where were these guys a month ago. Stay tuned.

one more move for the NAR

Over the last 8 or 10 months the leadership of the National Association of Realtors® has become a target of much criticism for their lack of candor and insistence on glossing over the facts about the seriousness of the downturn in the residential real estate market. This criticism, and the resulting lack of credibility it has garnered for the NAR, has come from the national media, local news sources, snickering amongst neighbors over the backyard fence, and ranted about in the blog world. And David Lereah the chief economist of the NAR, has taken a lot of abuse as the spokesperson for these reports.
And while I would not expect the NAR to announce that the real estate market is dead and that everyone should go home, lock their doors and wait til' 2008 to make a move. I do believe that the NAR has 'a responsibility to provide timely, accurate information and frank and honest assessments and guidance in good times and bad' - just like all Realtors® are supposed to do- this from an earlier post of mine Who said that?  The NAR has that responsibility, both to the public and to it's Realtor® members across the country. But the NAR seems determined to turn their back on that responsibility in favor of the old rah-rah, sis-boom-ba. Witness the new multi-million dollar national ad campaign from the NAR and it's inspirational headline.
It’s a great time to buy or sell a home.
At the very least they are engaging in painting the entire real estate market across the USA with a big, cheerful, brightly colored broad brush. It's a great time to buy or sell a home. Please! Is that Everywhere USA, is it Anywhere USA, Where is it a great time to buy AND sell a home. This is just the kind of sweeping misrepresentation and misinformation that the NAR correctly accused the media of engaging in when overstating the gloom and doom of the market.
It's probably a pretty good time to buy a home in some places, maybe it's even a great time in some places. But a great time to buy and sell, who's going to buy that? And if someone did buy it, would it be good advice.
Why couldn't the NAR just stop at 'It's a great time to buy a home'. Although still a gereralization, it's a lot closer to the truth of the current situation. And if somehow it did encourage people to buy homes, that would be a step toward remedying the current backlog of homes on the market.
So why at this time, with the hefty oversupply of homes for sale (way too much supply-not nearly enough demand) would the NAR be trying (however feebly) to encourage more sellers to list their homes. I don't get it. Even David Lereah has acknowledged that inventory levels need to come down to more normal levels.
At best this campaign comes off as pure fluff, but if you get beyond that, the 'It's a great time to sell ...' message is so blatantly out of whack with reality that I'm afraid that the NAR has moved beyond mere criticism and into the realm of caricature.

Luxury Homes in Tucson

Seeming to defy the slow-down in the rest of the market, the luxury home market in the Tucson Foothills is doing better than ever, it's doing even better than last year, with more homes selling at $1,000,000 and UP than ever before.
And this is a market that has emerged in just the last few years.
In the year 2000, 24 homes sold for $1,000,000 or more, then 25 sold in 2001, 30 in 2002, and just 27 in 2003. Then sales started to take off, with 60 homes selling at $1,000,000+ in 2004, and jumping to 97 in 2005.
So far this year 113 homes have sold for $1,000,000+ in the Tucson Foothills. And there are 16 more $1,000,000+ homes currently under contract and scheduled to close escrow in the next 30 days or so.

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 11/9

Here's a snapshot of sales activity - for Single Family Homes in the Tucson Foothills, during the past two weeks, that's 10/26 thru 11/9.
This activity took place against a base of 400 homes currently listed for sale (priced from $225,000 - $22,000,000)
New Listings = 50 (priced from $295,000 - $2,200,000)
Homes gone under contract = 21 (priced from $267,000 - $1,499,000)
Homes Sold = 25 (priced $315,000 - $1,400,000)
Price Reductions = 46
Price Increases = 14 (13 of these are in one New in-fill development)
Expired Listings = 16
Withdrawn Listings = 26

In the current 2 week period, compared to the previous two weeks, there have been-
10 less New Listings
  6 less homes have gone under contract,
  8 more have Sold
  5 more Price Reductions
13 more Price Increases
  2 more Expired Listings
12 more Withdrawn Listings

Well priced homes continue to sell in the Tucson Foothills, while sellers continue to reduce prices to better align themselves with the current market - since mid July there have been between 35 to 55 price reductions during each 2 week period that I've tracked, for a total of 304 price reductions. This does not take into account the listings that expire or are withdrawn and then re-listed at a lower price, which is very often the case.   

Sales #'s for previous 2 week periods
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/22
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/8
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/24
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/10
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/27
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/13
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 7/30
*all sales data is based on sales thru the Tucson Assoc of Realtors MLS

no such thing as bad press'

It's interesting that eppraisal.com - the latest home valuation tool - has so far garnered very little popular attention, either from the traditional media or from the blog world. I wonder if that's because eppraisals claims are less bloated, and in my opinion more plausible and realistic than those of Zillow - which is exactly what has caused many of us to bitch about Zillow to no end- but no one's bitching about eppraisal, because their claims are more plausible, so there's not much to bitch about, and maybe they're a little bit invisible because of it. Meanwhile, Zillow continues to press the 'there is no such thing as bad press' advantage, and now with a big assist from the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) and their filing of a complaint against Zillow with the Federal Trade Commission.
Prior to this complaint, I was beginning to sense that Zillow, with all their brouha and bloated claims, had in an ironic twist lowered the bar of expectation to such a point that it was contributing to an increasingly frivolous regard for Zillow by reasonably informed people. And now this complaint, and whether or not you agree with the validity of it, I hope we can agree that it would be a good thing for Zillow and for the people who use Zillow, if Zillow, very simply and prominently and consistently displayed accurate information about the limitations of Zillow and Zestimates. But then we'd have nothing to bitch about.
For more on my beef with Zillow, see - Your edge in Real Estate? and seller gets zillowed and new ways to value your home, and your neighbors

Tucson's Catalina Foothills Estates

For those interested in the early development of Tucson’s Catalina Foothills Estates area, I recently received the following brief history from the Catalina Foothills Estates No. 7 Homeowners Association, where I’m in the process of buying a home.
______________________________________________
A Brief History of Catalina Foothills Estates No. 7
Following the stock market crash of 1929, John Murphey needed to raise some much needed cash. The Tucson developer turned to an Arizona banker for help. Murphey owned several large tracts of land in the foothills of the Santa Catalina Mountains and he offered to sell some of this land for ten dollars per acre. The banker refused the offer and flatly stated that the land was worthless. Even Murphey, who knew land values and understood growth, would be astonished to know that some of the acres he could not market for $10 in 1930 now command over $100,000 per acre.
(Note-this piece was written in 1997.  Acre lots that have sold recently in the Catalina Foothills Estates ranged in price from $265,000 to $349,000, with  lots currently for sale priced from $235,000 to $1,100,000)

tweeners, stuck with 2 homes

In Tucson we get a lot of people who move here from someplace else. And whether the move is for retirement, a change in lifestyle, or a job, people usually have a home to sell back in San Diego, Chicago, Boston or wherever. During the last few years when real estate markets in many parts of the country were doing well, Tucson was one of the really hot markets, with home prices rising rapidly and homes flying off the shelf in bidding wars.
So many of these transferees jumped in and bought a home in Tucson, before selling their home back in Boise. The thinking was that home prices in Tucson were going through the roof, and it seemed like a smart move to buy soon, lock in a decent deal here in Tucson, then sell the Colonial in Chicago, and make out on both ends. And that strategy worked pretty well for a while. But then the real estate market turned, and homes were suddenly (and it happened very suddenly) sitting on the market for extended periods, despite price reductions and other creative selling inducements. Things continued to get worse and worse. And those who were late to the game found that they couldn't, and still can't, sell their home back home. And in what I'm sure was a very painful and difficult decision, a few of my clients ended up having me turn around and sell their new Tucson home just so they could get out from under the quagmire.

Tucson Foothills Home Sales

Here's the latest on the number of homes sold in the Tucson Foothills for the period of January thru October 2006 vs the same period in 2005.

Price range	Jan-Oct 2005 # Homes Sold	Jan-Oct 2006 # Homes Sold	+/-
$500,000 - $750,000	258	190	-26%
$750,000 - $1,000,000	117	90	-23%
$1,000,000 - $1,500,000	54	76	+40%
$1,500,000 - $2,000,000	12	16	+33%
$2,000,000 & UP	11	16	+45%
Total Homes SOLD	452	388	-14%
Average List Price	$623,840	$740,368	+18%
Average SalePrice	$612,095	$710,109	+16%

OK, so overall sales of Foothills homes are down 14% from the frenzy that was last year, not great, but the sky's not falling in this part of Tucson either.
And it's kind of a mixed bag really, with sales of homes priced under $1 million showing substantial declines, while those priced at $1 million + are selling better than ever.
And the average list and average sale price continue to hold their own.
**Please note that these numbers are only for homes in the Tucson Foothills, and only for single family homes SOLD through the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.