The Catalina Foothills

Holiday Home Sales, Tucson

Traditionally the holidays are just about the slowest time of year for home sales. That's understandable, most people have other things on their mind. If you're selling your home, the last thing you expect is to get an offer between Thanksgiving and the New Year, it just doesn't happen, or so they say, and that's what makes it a great time to buy. An offer during the holidays is unexpected, it's out of the blue. People are in a good mood, they're celebrating, they're busy getting together with friends and family, and BAM! out of the blue they get offer on their home. It's the kind of Santa down the chimney moment that clinches the holiday celebration and puts the seller in a frame of mind to make a deal and really celebrate the season. And if your home's been on the market for a while, what a great way to end the year.
Between Thanksgiving day and today 22 homes in the Tucson Foothills have gone under contract - about 6% of the total inventory. Not a huge amount, but not bad either, and I'll wager that every one of those 22 sellers had put the idea of getting an offer out of their mind and were resigned to waiting until next year.
Happy New Year!

trulia, zillow and St. Joseph

We've all heard about the great lengths that Realtors, builders and owners of homes for sale have been going to in order to snag a buyer in this slower real estate market. They've fixed-up the homes, reduced the price, put in new kitchens and baths, staged the homes and held countless open houses. And they've embraced the new internet based real estate models offered by Zillow, Trulia, craigslist, and Googlebase in an effort to get their property in front of buyers and make the sale. And we've heard about the free plasma TV's, granite counters, the new car in the garage, and the trips to Hawaii designed to entice buyers. But apparently there's another effort underway that has not gotten too much attention. Realtors and homeowners (I'm not sure about builders) "are turning to what could be described as religious faith, popular spirituality or just plain superstition. To help sell houses, agents and owners are buying statues of St. Joseph, and burying them upside down in the front yard. If you do that, the belief goes, and if you recite a prayer to the patron saint of carpenters and families, you will find a buyer for your home". From a story in The Arizona Daily Star, More Home sellers turn to St. Joseph More interesting yet, and I'm not sure how to take this, is that the Tucson Association of Realtors is selling these statues of St Joseph. "The Tucson Association of Realtors, which sells the statues for $5.75, has sold more than three times as many of the statues this year as last. In all of 2005, it sold 57 statues. In the first 11 months of this year, it sold 185".
I didn't know they sold them at all, the TAR hasn't done much to promote the availability of the statues. But then again if I were going to buy one, I don't think I'd buy it from The Tucson Association of Realtors, somehow that wouldn't seem like the right place to get it. But I don't have to worry about that because soon after moving into our first house in Tucson about six years ago, while I was digging around in the yard I dug up a statue of St Joseph, buried upside down. So I kept him, and when it came time to sell that house St Joseph went back in the ground, head first.

growth, state by state

From CNNMoney.com A look at the population of each state in 2006 and the population change that occurred from 2005. Fascinating stuff, I didn't realize that there are entire states with populations of less than 1 million, and in fact there are 7 of them. Or that Idaho is the 3rd fastest growing state, Idaho, or that 579,275 people moved to Texas in one year, that's more people than the entire population of Wyoming. But the big story here is Arizona, now the fastest growing state in the nation. William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution in Washington noted, Arizona’s in-migration is visible at motor vehicle offices. In 2005, 117,500 people surrendered California driver’s licenses, with Illinois licenses a distant second with 23,200, followed by Texas with 22,800.“Arizona used to be merely a retirement magnet for Midwest seniors,” Mr. Frey said. “Now it’s also a front door for immigrants from Mexico and an escape hatch for Californians seeking affordable housing. Add the retiree population, which will be soon bubbling with baby boomers, and you have America’s demographic success story — or nightmare, depending on how you see the challenges of rapid growth.” From CNNMoney.com, Growth states: Arizona overtakes Nevada State                  2006      2005     Change  %

Arizona	6,166,318	5,953,007	213,311	3.58%
Nevada	2,495,529	2,412,301	83,228	3.45%
Idaho	1,466,465	1,429,367	37,098	2.60%
Georgia	9,363,941	9,132,553	231,388	2.53%
Texas	23,507,783	22,928,508	579,275	2.53%
Utah	2,550,063	2,490,334	59,729	2.40%
North Carolina	8,856,505	8,672,459	184,046	2.12%
Colorado	4,753,377	4,663,295	90,082	1.93%
Florida	18,089,888	17,768,191	321,697	1.81%
South Carolina	4,321,249	4,246,933	74,316	1.75%
Oregon	3,700,758	3,638,871	61,887	1.70%
Washington	6,395,798	6,291,899	103,899	1.65%
New Mexico	1,954,599	1,925,985	28,614	1.49%
Delaware	853,476	841,741	11,735	1.39%
Tennessee	6,038,803	5,955,745	83,058	1.39%
Arkansas	2,810,872	2,775,708	35,164	1.27%
Wyoming	515,004	508,798	6,206	1.22%
Alabama	4,599,030	4,548,327	50,703	1.11%
Montana	944,632	934,737	9,895	1.06%
Virginia	7,642,884	7,564,327	78,557	1.04%
Alaska	670,053	663,253	6,800	1.03%
Oklahoma	3,579,212	3,543,442	35,770	1.01%
Hawaii	1,285,498	1,273,278	12,220	0.96%
South Dakota	781,919	774,883	7,036	0.91%
California	36,457,549	36,154,147	303,402	0.84%
Kentucky	4,206,074	4,172,608	33,466	0.80%
Minnesota	5,167,101	5,126,739	40,362	0.79%
Missouri	5,842,713	5,797,703	45,010	0.78%
Indiana	6,313,520	6,266,019	47,501	0.76%
New Hampshire	1,314,895	1,306,819	8,076	0.62%
Kansas	2,764,075	2,748,172	15,903	0.58%
Nebraska	1,768,331	1,758,163	10,168	0.58%
Iowa	2,982,085	2,965,524	16,561	0.56%
Wisconsin	5,556,506	5,527,644	28,862	0.52%
Illinois	12,831,970	12,765,427	66,543	0.52%
Maryland	5,615,727	5,589,599	26,128	0.47%
Pennsylvania	12,440,621	12,405,348	35,273	0.28%
New Jersey	8,724,560	8,703,150	21,410	0.25%
Maine	1,321,574	1,318,220	3,354	0.25%
West Virginia	1,818,470	1,814,083	4,387	0.24%
Vermont	623,908	622,387	1,521	0.24%
North Dakota	635,867	634,605	1,262	0.20%
Connecticut	3,504,809	3,500,701	4,108	0.12%
Mississippi	2,910,540	2,908,496	2,044	0.07%
Massachusetts	6,437,193	6,433,367	3,826	0.06%
Ohio	11,478,006	11,470,685	7,321	0.06%
New York	19,306,183	19,315,721	-9,538	-0.05%
Michigan	10,095,643	10,100,833	-5,190	-0.05%
District of Columbia	581,530	582,049	-519	-0.09%
Rhode Island	1,067,610	1,073,579	-5,969	-0.56%
Louisiana	4,287,768	4,507,331	-219,563	-4.87%

Arizona, the fastest growing state

Yesterday, in Tucson, one of the hottest markets, still I wrote about the future growth of Tucson, and one of the key criteria for that growth was 'a solid in-migration to the area'. Today a story in The New York Times, Arizona Displaces Nevada as Fastest-Growing State seems to lend credence to that solid in-migration. 'An influx from California helped make Arizona the fastest-growing state, displacing Nevada for the first time in nearly two decades, according to census figures released yesterday'. 'Measured by rate of growth, Arizona was first, followed by Nevada, Idaho, Georgia and Texas, Utah, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida and South Carolina'. “Arizona used to be merely a retirement magnet for Midwest seniors,” Mr. Frey said. “Now it’s also a front door for immigrants from Mexico and an escape hatch for Californians seeking affordable housing. Add the retiree population, which will be soon bubbling with baby boomers, and you have America’s demographic success story — or nightmare, depending on how you see the challenges of rapid growth.” Read it HERE

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 12/21

Here's a snapshot of sales activity - for Single Family Homes in the Tucson Foothills, during the past two weeks, that's 12/7 thru 12/21.
This activity took place against a base of 380 homes listed for sale (priced from $219,900 - $22,000,000)
New Listings = 27 (priced from $287,000 - $3,995,000)
Homes gone under contract = 18 (priced from $219,900 - $1,595,000)
Homes Sold = 24 (priced $285,000 - $1,350,000)
Price Reductions = 10
Price Increases = 4
Expired Listings = 13
Withdrawn Listings = 20
In the current 2 week period, compared to the previous two weeks, there have been-
21 fewer New Listings
  2 fewer homes have gone under contract,
  0 same # of homes Sold
17 fewer Price Reductions
  3 more Price Increases
10 fewer Expired Listing
  0 same # Withdrawn Listings
Two weeks ago I anticipated a significant slow-down in sales activity due to the holidays, and that's turned out to be only partially true. While the numbers for new listings, price reductions, withdrawn and expired listings are down, actual sales activity remains about the same, with the # of homes going under contract and homes sold holding steady.
Sales #'s for previous 2 week periods
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 12/7
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 11/23
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 11/9
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/22
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/8
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/24
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/10
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/27
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/13
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 7/30

Tucson, one of the hottest markets, still

About three weeks ago I ran this piece by Kendra Todd - Best Places in the U.S. to Buy a Home It was the featured real estate news story on Yahoo, at the very top of the section and it offered a very sunny outlook for Tucson real estate. Today (December 21st) I noticed that Yahoo is still featuring this same piece by Kendra at the top of their real estate news section. That seems weird, almost three weeks at the top of the Yahoo real estate news section? Why? Is it that Yahoo is trying to accentuate the positive. They have lots of other material to choose from, and I've never-ever seen Yahoo run the same column for anywhere near this length of time. But I'm not complaining, you gotta like what Kendra has to say, "... I think Tucson will be one of the hottest markets in the next five years". That sounds a lot like the predictions we were hearing from real estate guru's about Tucson a year and a half ago. And the criteria that Kendra cites are pretty much the same as those cited before the blitz of gloom and doom brought the house down - A strong trend toward appreciation, A strong local economy, A 'wow' factor that attracts people, Solid in-migration to the area. Those factors were true then and they're still true now.

Best Places in the U.S. to Buy a Home By Kendra Todd

November 11, 2006 While the alarmists continue to jabber on about a real estate bubble, the fact is that real estate is regional, not national. That means while many overpriced markets are cooling off, others are poised to take off in the next two to three years. In this column, we're going to look at some of the most promising places to buy a home in the U.S. (read full column)

Tucson, Arizona - The largest city on this list with more than 512,000 residents, Tucson is the antidote to the overheated Phoenix/Scottsdale market. With a projected appreciation of 5.7% and an average three-bedroom home price of about $211,000, this city offers the option of living in the warm, dry Arizona climate for a very affordable cost. I think Tucson will be one of the hottest markets in the next five years.

mobile homes for sale: $1 million each

From CNNMoney.com
488 mobile homes for sale: $1 million each
Nearly 500 mobile home owners must decide whether to sell their 43-acre oceanfront park to real estate developer.
Residents of a Florida trailer park could soon be millionaires if they approve their community board's decision to sell the oceanfront property.
The board of Palm Beach County's Briny Breezes has decided to sell its coveted 43-acre oceanfront property to Ocean Land Investments for $510 million. But the final decision on whether or not the sale will go through will be turned over to the inhabitants of the 488 mobile homes near Palm Beach.
Its residents - who co-own the shares of Briny Breezes corporation - will now have to vote on the deal. The results will be known on January 10, 2007.
The sale would generate an average of $1 million for each of the owners and would be the county's largest property deal ever, according to Palm Beach County officials.
The parcel of land was the subject of much competition from developers nationwide because it is arguably the last of its kind in all of Florida.
The buyer, Ocean Land, is known for redeveloping prime waterfront properties with neighborhood support and plans to develop a mixed-use community in phases over the next 15 years.

around Tucson

Here are a few News blurbs about goings-on around Tucson, including the first one about a Wal-Mart opening in the Foothills, yes you heard right, Wal-Mart in the Foothills, oh my
Foothills Wal-Mart grocery in the works
Now the retailer is casting its gaze toward the Catalina Foothills for one of its neighborhood groceries 

And Speaking of the greater Tucson metro
Economic growth may back off a bit 

Housing market, spending, temper outlook, expert says

Tucson Housing market cools
With cold weather comes a seasonally cooler real estate market

Housing Market Normal, in Sahuarita
Hot times cooling down in Sahuarita, but things are far from bad, analyst says

Developer negotiates on Painted Hills plans
The developer of a prized piece of the Tucson Mountain foothills says he's going to save 70 percent of the property

average sale price $40 million

“I have multiple clients who want to buy $50 or $60 million properties, but we can’t find them one right now,” “When you’re going to spend that much money, you have to find the perfect property.” says Mauricio Umansky, a broker at Hilton & Hyland. Oh, such are the trials and tribulations that we Realtors® have to deal with.
From Forbes.com a peek at the Most Expensive Home Sales of 2006
'What’s driving the market’s top tier? High-end luxury sales can remain out of synch with market trends because this sector of the market is volume volatile and not price volatile. This means that sales are less affected by general market forces--because potential buyers always have enough money--but more by whether or not rare properties are available'

housing rebound by end of 2007

Here's an uncharacteristically sober prediction for housing in 2007 from David Lereah of the National Association of Realtors, from MSNBC.com
WASHINGTON - Next year will likely bring a second annual decline in existing-home sales, the National Association of Realtors predicted Monday.
About three-quarters of the country will see a sluggish expansion of existing home sales next year, Lereah said.
The health of housing markets across the country will vary, he said, but “general gains in value next year will be modest by historic standards.”
Read it here Drop in existing-home sales seen for 2nd year

zillowed

I just went through the whole zillow 'Post for Sale' process for a listing of mine and I found it to be very easy to do (or so I thought) - I read all the instructions, filled in all the info, uploaded the photos, answered all the questions, agreed to all the terms, clicked Submit and - zap, zilch, nothing. Apparently zillow didn't like my listing. It didn't take and it's lost somewhere in the zillow vapor. Then I got a little paranoid and started wondering if getting zapped was pay-back for my past criticism of zillow. Who knows.
As an interesting aside though, the zestimate for this property is $542,806 and my list price is $535,000 (which I believe is right-on). And, I originally listed this property at $549,000 , which puts the zestimate almost dead-center between my original and revised list prices. The atypical accuracy of this particular zestimate is one of the reasons why I went ahead and listed - or tried to list - the property on zillow? But I thought it was odd and awfully coincidental for the zestimate to suddenly be this accurate, and on a listing of mine, which is by far the closest I've seen a zestimate come to real world values since I started criticizing zillow for its lack of accuracy, amongst other things. Or, wait a minute, could it be the other way round, and zillows zestimate is based on my list prices? 

Tucson Home Sales

Here’s a snapshot of what's happening in home sales for the greater Tucson metro area for November 2006 vs November 2005. These figures include single family homes, condo/townhomes and manufactured homes, and they are courtesy of the Tucson Association of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service, Inc
Sales Snapshot
Home Sales Volume
Decreased 18.97% from $324,188,934 in November
2005 to $262,678,035 in November 2006.
Home Sales Units
Decreased 19.44% from 1,219 in November 2005 to
982 in November 2006.
Average Sales Price (all residential types)
Increased 0.58% from $265,947 in November 2005 to
$267,493 in November 2006.
Median Sales Price
Decreased 3.54% from $226,000 in November 2005 to
$218,000 in November 2006.
Average Days on Market
Increased 76.47% from 34 days in November 2005 to
60 days in November 2006.
Pending Contracts (not yet closed in escrow)
Decreased 41.69% from 1,528 in November 2005 to
891 in November 2006.
Active Listings
Increased 66.33% from 5,554 in November 2005 to
9,238 in November 2006.
New Listings
Increased 2.90% from 2,313 in November 2005 to
2,380 in November 2006

up, down

Is real estate heating up, cooling down, headed for a deeper freeze or just hanging in there despite the challenges?
Kenneth R. Harney of the WashingtonPost.com very coolly deciphers the latest fed report on residential real estate price appreciation across the nation, in Support for Any Theory
Also from WashingtonPost.com the latest on falling interest rates, 30-Year Rates Fall to 6.11%

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 12/7

Here's a snapshot of sales activity - for Single Family Homes in the Tucson Foothills, during the past two weeks, that's 11/24 thru 12/7.
This activity took place against a base of 389 homes listed for sale (priced from $219,900 - $22,000,000)
New Listings = 48 (priced from $249,900 - $4,200,000)
Homes gone under contract = 20 (priced from $235,000 - $880,000)
Homes Sold = 24 (priced $239,900 - $1,300,000)
Price Reductions = 27
Price Increases = 1
Expired Listings = 23
Withdrawn Listings = 20
In the current 2 week period, compared to the previous two weeks, there have been-
  9 fewer New Listings
  5 fewer homes have gone under contract,
  0 same # of homes Sold
  5 fewer Price Reductions
  0 same # Price Increases
  8 more Expired Listing
  2 fewer Withdrawn Listings
While the sales activity in the Tucson Foothills continues to maintain a consistent and relatively healthy pace, we can expect sales to slow down for the next month or so as everyone's attention turns to family and holidays. On the other hand, I expect to see increased activity in online home searches as buyers start to zero-in on available properties in anticipation of the new year and the start of the big home sale season (January thru June) in the Tucson Foothills.
Sales #'s for previous 2 week periods
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 11/23
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 11/9
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/22
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 10/8
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/24
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 9/10
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/27
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity 8/13
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Sales Activity, 7/30
*all sales data is based on sales thru the Tucson Assoc of Realtors MLS

Tucson's growing

National brands, major retailers and high-end specialty stores have been keeping an eye on Tucson, while many of them have already opened stores here. And that's a pretty good vote of faith in the vitality of the Old Pueblo, as these stores do a fair amount of research before they commit to a new city.
From the Arizona Daily Star, Big-name stores like what they see here
Having shopping options is nice, but I just hope that Tucson doesn't become overrun with a slew national brands that end up driving out our very special local stores, and some of the charm and character that is Tucson, in the bargain.

Tucson, one of the hottest markets

Kendra Todd says that Tucson 'is one of the most promising places to buy a home in the U.S.', and that it is 'poised to take off in the next two to three years', and that, 'Tucson will be one of the hottest markets in the next five years'
Don't know who Kendra Todd is; 'Kendra Todd is the first and only woman to win Donald Trump's smash hit NBC show, "The Apprentice" on NBC. Additionally, she is Broker of Florida-based MyHouseRE.com, host of the popular HGTV Show "My House Is Worth What?" and a regular real estate contributor on Fox News Live. Her first book "Risk and Grow Rich: How to Make Millions in Real Estate" has been an instant success'.
According to Kendra, Tucson, the largest city on her list of Best Places in The U.S. To Buy A Home, shares these key attributes with her other top picks; A strong trend toward appreciation, A strong local economy, A "wow" factor that attracts people, and Solid in-migration to the area.
Read Best Places in The U.S. To Buy a Home, then give me a call. Hey, I just bought a home in Tucson, and I hadn't even read Kendra's report yet.

Tucson Foothills Home Sales

Here's the latest on the number of homes sold in the Tucson Foothills for the period of January thru November 2006 vs the same period in 2005.

Price range	Jan-Nov 2005 # Homes Sold	Jan-Nov 2006 # Homes Sold	+/-
$500,000 - $750,000	278	211	-24%
$750,000 - $1,000,000	130	96	-26%
$1,000,000 - $1,500,000	60	82	+36%
$1,500,000 - $2,000,000	13	16	+23%
$2,000,000 & UP	11	17	+54%
Total Homes SOLD	492	422	-14%
Average List Price	$627,783	$739,395	+18%
Average Sale Price	$615,751	$710,131	+15%

As we've seen all year, sales below $1,000,000 continue to lag 2005, while those at $1,000,000 ++ are doing better than ever. And overall, the average list and average sale price are up substantially from last year.
**Please note that these numbers are for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills SOLD through the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.