The season begins, Tucson Foothills home sales

We're at the point in the real estate cycle where there is a lot of speculation on where the market really is now and where it's headed. There are bulls and there are bears. Some say we've reached the turning point, others believe that we've got a ways to go yet. In most parts of the country this is a slow time for home sales, things don't really get going until spring, so the speculation about the market has some time to brew before the actual sales results start coming in. In the Tucson Foothills the high-season for home sales kicks off right now, in mid January, and runs through May and then dribbles into June. Winter visitors and snow birds are arriving everyday, internet searches and showing activity are up and the buzz in real estate circles is all about whether this activity will translate into a good year for home sales. In Tucson we've had a run of good news lately on the economic and real estate fronts, and although some of it has been forecasts of good things to come vs. the more tangible it's actually happened kind of good news, it's still good news. And glancing at the real estate numbers in the Tucson Foothills for the past week I'd say that optimism is carrying the day. There have been 71 homes listed for sale since January 1st. 71, that's a quite a few for a market where the inventory has ranged between about 350 to 400 homes recently - even though about half those listings are homes that were taken off the market at the end of 06 and are now being re-listed for the new year. That's 71 more homeowners, plus their real estate agents, who believe that they have a good chance of selling their home in the next 5 to 6 months. And they may be right because there are a lot of factors working in Tucson's favor. Interest rates are low, the business environment and the employment picture are bright, Arizona is now the fastest growing state and there's a solid in-migration of people to Tucson from other parts of the country, including a growing number of retiring baby boomers. Couple that with the fact that in the Foothills there is a limited supply of homes, very few buildable lots and no land for further development. Right now we're still in a buyers market, but I can see the scales beginning to tip to a more balanced market. In the weeks ahead we'll see if I'm right. I'll be posting homes sales data for the Foothills every two weeks starting on 1/15/07, so check back if you're interested in getting the latest on Tucson Foothills home sales.