The Catalina Foothills

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 1/28

The high season for home sales in the Tucson Foothills, which officially started four weeks ago, is now in full-swing. Here's what's happened since my last report two weeks ago for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills. This activity, for the period of 1/15 - 1/28/07, took place against an average of 390 homes listed for sale during this period, priced from $235,000 to $22,000,000.
New Listings = 70 (priced from $295,000 - $2,975,000)
Homes gone under contract = 29 (priced from $255,000- $935,000)
Homes Sold = 21 (priced $229,900 - $1,365,000)
Price Reductions = 30
Price Increases = 2
Expired Listings = 15
Withdrawn Listings = 29
Typical for this time of year, we're seeing more activity, more New Listings and more homes going under contract. Also the inventory of homes For Sale is slowly creeping back up, as sellers who dropped out of the game during the holiday season are getting back in. Price reductions, which have been abundant for the last six months continue to play a part, but at somewhat reduced levels, as home sellers hold out renewed hope for this new season. It looks to be a solid if not spectacular start to the the new home selling season in the Tucson Foothills. An interesting tid-bit - with just one exception, this is the first time in a long time, that no homes priced at $1,000,000 or more have gone under contract during the 2 week reporting period. hmmm! I'll be posting this data every two weeks, so check back for the latest on Tucson Foothills home sales.
For Sales #'s for previous 2 week periods, see-
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 1/14
As always, I've collected this data from the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

Tucson Foothills Home Sales

One measure of the health of a real estate market is the % of LIST PRICE received for the homes that have SOLD. A market where homes are selling well below their LIST PRICE indicates a weak or declining market where the expectations of buyers and sellers are out of balance, while a market where homes are selling closer to LIST PRICE indicates a more even-handed market where buyers and sellers are in sync with eachother. Over the last 60 days (11/25/06 - 1/25/07), 93 homes priced from $219,900 to $2,595,000, have SOLD in The Tucson Foothills, and they SOLD for an average of 96.78% of their List Price.
To me that indicates a market that is in pretty good balance, not strongly in favor of either the buyer or the seller. For about 6 months we were seeing a standoff between buyers and sellers, with sellers holding out for their price and buyers refusing to buy. But many of those sellers have since stepped forward and reduced their prices to more realistic levels, and more recently, many of the new listings that have come on the market are also priced more realistically. Those are the homes that are selling, and they're selling for a reasonable % of their LIST PRICE, in some cases for full-price.
Looking at the Average % of List Price received based on the number of days on the market (DOM) for those 93 homes,
34 SOLD within the first 30 DOM, for an average of 98.94% of List Price
14 SOLD between 31 & 60 DOM,  for an average of 95.88% of List Price
15 SOLD between 61 & 90 DOM,  for an average of 94.85% of List Price
17 SOLD between 91 & 120 DOM, for an average of 94.91% of List Price
13 SOLD  at 121 or more DOM,    for an average of 96.15% of List Price
While you would expect that the homes that sold in the shortest time would receive the highest % of their list price - because they are the more attractive, desirable and/or better priced homes on the market - you wouldn't expect that the homes taking the longest time to sell would receive the 2nd highest % of list price. I think there are at least two explanations for that. First, it's likely that many of those homes were overpriced and that the sellers were very slow to reduce the price, and when they finally did reduce the price that they went through 2 or 3 price reductions before getting it to the point of market value. The other possibility, and I've seen it often, is that some of these homes were odd or quirky in some way, and so they didn't have broad appeal. They were homes waiting for that special buyer, but when that buyer came along, it was love at first sight.
This data and the following charts are from the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.

% SOLD/# of Days On Market


% of List Price received/# of Days on Market

Opportunity knocks, and knocks and

It's a frigid 36 degrees and pouring today in Tucson, so I'm inside trying to keep busy. Cruisin' around on the Tucson MLS to see what's new, I notice a new listing for a home in Cimarron Foothills Estates. It's listed for $684,900, then I glance at the opening line in the agents marketing remarks-
OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME, HOME SOLD IN 2005 FOR $890,0000... that's a catchy line. It's listed for $684,900 today, and it SOLD for $890,000 in 2005, hmmm. Intrigued and skeptical I dig a little bit and find that this home did sell for $890,000 on 5/11/05, and it is for sale for $684,900 today. Wow, maybe this is an opportunity. Looking a little further, I see that unfortunately this is a bank sale, a foreclosure, and that the bank has had it for sale for 256 days. And it turns out that this new listing is just the latest in a series of price reductions & relistings that started on 4/21/06 when it was listed for $849,900, then reduced to $835,000, then to $819,900, and so on, until it's current price of $684,900. I haven't seen this home so I can't really say whether or not it's a screamin' deal, but the plot thickens. Prior to this home selling for $890,000 back on 5/11/05, it had also been on the market for quite a while, 146 days, and during that time the list price had also been gradually reduced -from $839,900 to $695,000- sound familiar, and still it didn't sell. So in an abrupt change of strategy it was re-listed and they raised the price $195,000, that's right they raised the price $195,000, from $695,000 to $890,000, and presto, it went under contract the very next day and sold for the new list price of $890,000. I'm not making this up. But how could that be? What was the buyer thinking when he plunked down the list price of $890,000 for this house that hadn't sold when it was priced at $695,000. The other interesting tid-bit is that this buyer went into foreclosure after owning this home for only 11 months. That's really quick and I'm really curious. I have a feeling there's a story behind that sale and I'll see what I can find out. But all that murkiness aside, this may still be an opportunity.

Tucson Foothills Luxury Homes

Today on Yahoo Real Estate there's a story from Realty Times about the Luxury end of the real estate market and how well it is doing, despite the downturn in the rest of the market. Luxury Housing the Silver Lining in a Stormy Market? "The fundamentals are still strong for affluent buyers. They have a strong economy, strong GDP growth, low unemployment, and a booming stock market."
Ditto for the Tucson Foothills. I wrote about this a couple of times recently "Seeming to defy the slow-down in the rest of the market, the luxury home market in the Tucson Foothills is doing better than ever... , and then again in a summary of 2006 Foothills homes sales broken down by price range "here are the actual sales results for 2006 vs 2005 for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills... As we get into the new year, high-end sales continue to do very well in the Tucson Foothills, and I'm betting that once again the luxury market here will break all previous sales records.

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 1/14

Kicking off the new year and the start of the high-season for home sales in the Tucson Foothills, here's a snapshot of sales activity - for Single Family Homes in the Tucson Foothills, during the past two weeks, that's 1/1/07 thru 1/14/07
This activity took place against an average of 385 homes listed for sale during this period, priced from $235,000 to $22,000,000.
New Listings = 117 (priced from $259,900 - $4,200,000)
Homes gone under contract = 24 (priced from $294,500- $1,950,000)
Homes Sold = 21 (priced $219,900 - $2,595,000)
Price Reductions = 32
Price Increases = 4
Expired Listings = 40
Withdrawn Listings = 38
WOW! 117 New Listings. At first glance that's an awful lot, but it's not really true, the numbers lie. If you look at the number of Expired and Withdrawn Listings there are a total of 78. Most of those homes were withdrawn from active listing status so that they could be re-listed with 0 DOM for the new year, which puts the number of actual New Listings at 39 or so. It looks like a very active start to the new selling season, 24 homes under contract, quite a few price reductions and 39 new listings. Things are happening here, and while the next 6 weeks will be very telling as to the health of the market in the Tucson Foothills, this is a very positive start. I'll be posting this data every two weeks so check back for the latest on Tucson Foothills home sales.
For Sales #'s for previous 2 week periods, see
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 12/21 

Arizona, a growing state

As we've all heard now for the umpteenth time, and here's umpteen + 1, Arizona is now the fastest growing state after edging out Nevada's long hold on that claim. Winning the title of fastest growing state is being ballyhooed by business people, politicians, the media and others as a very positive thing. And it may well be a positive thing for Arizona, we've got room for a few more, but only if that growth can be well managed. The following story from the Arizona Daily Star, State's growth is fueled by jobs, tourism, housing touches on the fact that there are at least two sides to growth, raises some of the issues and gives voice to a few contrary opinions.
Not too long ago California was the fastest growing state. Now people are leaving there in droves - and guess what, many of them are coming to Arizona - to get away from the overcrowding, constant gridlock, and ridiculously high cost of living.
From LeavingCal.com Why would anyone want to leave California?
Has the price of living in California got you down? Tired of working around the clock and not even being able to pay all the bills? Tired of spending hours on the freeway when you could be home spending quality time with your family? Knowing at the cost of homes in California you will never achieve the American Dream of Home Ownership. California was once the State Everybody wanted to live in.
For more than 5 years now LeavingCal.com has been documenting the problems of living in California and offering people a forum for their frustrations and an exchange of ideas on how to get out of California and find the best places to move to. I'm sure that LeavingCal has inspired many a Californian to pack up and head over to Arizona.
I lived in L.A. in the late 70's, and for an ex-New Yorker it was a pretty nice place back then. The traffic was OK, rents were reasonable and there was a real sense of freedom in being able zip from the beach to the valley to the mountains and then dinner in your car. For the next 20 years I lived in Chicago and traveled to California constantly, mostly to L.A. on business, 10  or more times a year. Little by little the gridlock took hold and tightened, and soon any discussion of the business that we were there to conduct took a back seat to a discussion of how to best get to where we needed to go and back again, and still maintain our sanity. Now when I visit friends in L.A. they don't even want to take outings - to dinner, shopping, whatever - if it involves driving more than just a few miles. It's just too frustrating and difficult.
Governor Napolitano says that she is aware of these issues, "The governor fully appreciates that growth has at least two sides to the issue," said Jeanine L'Ecuyer, Napolitano's spokeswoman. "We certainly understand that people want to come here and that we can't put up a fence and keep them out. We need to think through how to effectively manage that growth so that we have the infrastructure we need to support what we believe in — schools, effective transportation and good use of land and water."
It's sad to say but it's true, California, a very beautiful place, has been ruined by growth. Lets do everything we can to make sure that doesn't happen in Arizona.

The season begins, Tucson Foothills home sales

We're at the point in the real estate cycle where there is a lot of speculation on where the market really is now and where it's headed. There are bulls and there are bears. Some say we've reached the turning point, others believe that we've got a ways to go yet. In most parts of the country this is a slow time for home sales, things don't really get going until spring, so the speculation about the market has some time to brew before the actual sales results start coming in. In the Tucson Foothills the high-season for home sales kicks off right now, in mid January, and runs through May and then dribbles into June. Winter visitors and snow birds are arriving everyday, internet searches and showing activity are up and the buzz in real estate circles is all about whether this activity will translate into a good year for home sales. In Tucson we've had a run of good news lately on the economic and real estate fronts, and although some of it has been forecasts of good things to come vs. the more tangible it's actually happened kind of good news, it's still good news. And glancing at the real estate numbers in the Tucson Foothills for the past week I'd say that optimism is carrying the day. There have been 71 homes listed for sale since January 1st. 71, that's a quite a few for a market where the inventory has ranged between about 350 to 400 homes recently - even though about half those listings are homes that were taken off the market at the end of 06 and are now being re-listed for the new year. That's 71 more homeowners, plus their real estate agents, who believe that they have a good chance of selling their home in the next 5 to 6 months. And they may be right because there are a lot of factors working in Tucson's favor. Interest rates are low, the business environment and the employment picture are bright, Arizona is now the fastest growing state and there's a solid in-migration of people to Tucson from other parts of the country, including a growing number of retiring baby boomers. Couple that with the fact that in the Foothills there is a limited supply of homes, very few buildable lots and no land for further development. Right now we're still in a buyers market, but I can see the scales beginning to tip to a more balanced market. In the weeks ahead we'll see if I'm right. I'll be posting homes sales data for the Foothills every two weeks starting on 1/15/07, so check back if you're interested in getting the latest on Tucson Foothills home sales.

our feathered friends

Every morning when I get back from walking my dogs we come in the side gate to the yard and all is quiet, there's nothing moving, and not a peep to be heard. And before we go in the house I take a minute to fill the two birdfeeders. Then all hell breaks loose. Within 20 seconds of that birdseed hitting the feeder it looks like an air raid. Wings are flapping, the air's filled with chirping and 2 dozen birds are jockeying for good position. I don't know where they come from or how they know, but all of a sudden they just drop in from nowhere, and for 30 minutes or so they look like the happiest creatures on earth, gorging on a free buffet breakfast. They get a free breakfast and we get a free show. All around it's great way to start the day. This morning, as I watched the birds and read the paper, I came across a story in the Arizona Daily Star, Tourists dig birds, wildlife. It's all about people who come here from all over the country and the world to spend a week or two observing nature and the many varieties of birds that are native to Southern Arizona. For us it's part of our morning routine, but we don't take it completely for granted, we've lived in N.Y., L.A. and Chicago, and we're very aware that it's just another one of the really great things about living in Tucson.

Hot Home Design Trends

If you're thinking of renovating the kitchen, or just planning to freshen things up with a coat of paint, check out this report from CNNMoney.com about design trends that will be high on homebuyers wish lists. 6 Hot Home Design Trends for 2007

more good news for Tucson

Over the last few weeks we've had a sudden run of good news on the economic and real estate fronts for Tucson and for Arizona overall. I first started picking this up with my post Tucson, one of the hottest markets , then again in Arizona, the fastest growing state, and more recently in Real Estate USA, today where Ken Harney of The Washington Post concluded that the market correction had run its course. And now some very upbeat news from Arizona business leaders along with a buyer/seller survey predicting a 10% increase in Arizona property values in 2007. That's very upbeat news.
In an article in the Arizona Daily Star Richard Ducote reports on the results of a Compass Bank Arizona Business Leaders Confidence survey - Arizona business survey shows spike in confidence
Confidence in the economy is on the upswing among Arizona business leaders, a new quarterly survey showed. "Arizona's economy has continued to perform very well in spite of the downdraft from housing markets," said Marshall Vest, director of economic and business research at the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management. Tucson panel members were the most optimistic, registering the highest readings in five of the six categories, Vest said.
And from yet another survey, this one reported by RISmedia. Arizona Real Estate Buyers & Sellers Forecast 10% Increase in Property Values in 2007
'In Q4 2006, Arizona Tax Liens.com surveyed 5,000 buyers and sellers of Arizona real estate to determine what they expected of Arizona property values in 2007. The survey showed that buyers and sellers foresee an increase of 10% in Arizona property values in 2007 due to the large number of people immigrating to Arizona, which is being fueled by high tech and biotech job growth in Tucson & Phoenix, low housing costs and baby boomers buying their retirement homes. 52% of the buyers surveyed plan on buying in Tucson, 29% plan on buying in Phoenix, 12% plan on buying in Flagstaff, 4% plan on buying in Prescott and the remaining 3% plan on buying in other areas of Arizona'.
Kendra Todd nailed this early-on (early-on was just over a month ago - but it seems that conditions change that quickly) with her piece on Yahoo.com Best Places in The U.S. To Buy A Home. In naming Tucson one of the six best places in the US to buy a home she cited some key criteria: A strong local economy, A "wow" factor that attracts people, and Solid in-migration to the area - all of which have existed for some time, but are suddenly being discovered and ballyhooed by these more recent surveys and reports.

Real Estate USA, today

Kenneth R. Harney has a piece in todays Washington Post titled 'The Tide is Turning'
Armed with data from the National Association of Realtors and the Commerce Department he explains 'that the 18-month market correction that followed the four-year housing boom has just about run its course'. He then goes on to give some very good advice to both buyers and sellers in the midst of a 'post-bubble, post-correction real estate market'. And whether or not you agree with Mr. Harney's somewhat upbeat conclusions about the market correction having run its course, this is a thoughtful and encouraging slant on the state of the market and a welcome antidote to the blare of gloomers and doomers.
WashingtonPost.com - The Tide is Turning

Get The Real Scoop

Rub shoulders with Realtors and other notable Tucson residents while you get the real scoop on the Tucson housing market. The Tucson Association of Realtors is sponsoring this early morning event. Following is the announcement from the TAR:
Forecast: Get the Real Scoop on Tucson Housing
Are you tired of conflicting media reports on the real estate market? Are ready for the REAL story on what to expect in 2007? Cut to the Chase: The REAL Scoop on Tucson's Housing Market will be held on Wednesday, January 24th at 8am. Our expert speakers include Pat Patton, an economist with the Economic & Business Research Center at the U of A, and Robert Barr, vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS®. The event will be held at the Doubletree Hotel Tucson, 445 S. Alvernon Way. Members and affiliate members of the Tucson Association of REALTORS® receive a $10 discount off the registration fee. The cost is $25 for members and $35 for non-members. Click here to register online.
I'd like to hear what these speakers have to say about Tucson's Housing market and what to expect for 2007, and I'm sure that lots of other people would also. We get a lot of people who are interested in moving to Tucson from other parts of the country - from California, Illinois, Nevada - you name it, and from other countries too. And I doubt that very many of them are going to schlepp down to the Doubletree Hotel at 8AM on January 24th. Wouldn't it make sense to make this presentation available on the internet via direct download, streaming, podcast, etc. And get this information to the people who can really use it, the people who are interested in buying a home in Tucson. And personally I'd much prefer hearing this presentation from the comfort of my home than from a folding chair at the Doubletree.

2006, Tucson Foothills Home Sales

As we are all too aware, in 2006 real estate continued to grab the headlines with reports of declining sales and predictions of gloom and doom, pretty much across the board. Putting those headlines aside for the moment, here are the actual sales results for 2006 vs 2005 for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills SOLD through the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.

Price range	Jan-Dec 2005 # Homes Sold	Jan-Dec 2006 # Homes Sold	+/- %
$500,000 - $750,000	293	228	-22%
$750,000 - $1,000,000	139	102	-26%
$1,000,000 - $1,500,000	69	86	+24%
$1,500,000 - $2,000,000	14	16	+14%
$2,000,000 & UP	11	18	+63%
Total Homes SOLD	526	450	-14%
Average List Price	$630,902	$734,594	+16%
Average Sale Price	618,716	$705,936	+14%

The results are somewhat of a mixed bag, with sales below $1mil continuing to show a decline from 2005 - albeit the gap has narrowed a bit in the last two months - while sales continue to increase at the upper end of the market. And while the average sale price is UP 14% for the year from 2005, the number of homes SOLD is DOWN 14% from 2005. This slowdown, which had it's start at the beginning of the year, really took hold in late April to mid May and accelerated during the summer months, with the effects of the slowdown becoming more pronounced month over month. However, during the last two months or so the pace of sales has remained steady, with no further decline. And while I believe we are at the point where home sales will begin to increase again in the Tucson Foothills, the next two months will be very telling - as January kicks off the high season for home sales in the Foothills. HAPPY NEW YEAR!