Each month I participate in a Real Estate Agent survey conducted by the securities department of Bank of America. They survey about 2600 agents in the top 39 markets.
In the introduction to the survey B of A says "We survey real estate agents, as we believe that agents will provide an accurate assessment of housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. Even though homebuilders sell new homes, we believe that it is crucial to have an understanding of the existing home market as the existing home market is substantially larger than the new home market (approximately 85%/15%) and trends in the existing home market dictate trends in the new home market."
Following are the survey findings for all of Tucson, not just the Tucson Foothills,
Tucson, AZ
(11,006 single-family permits in 2005, 33rd largest market in the country)
Traffic still below expectations. Our traffic index was unchanged at 34.4 in January from 34.6 in December, indicating traffic was below agents’ expectations (a reading of 50 suggests traffic in-line with expectations). 44% of agents said traffic was below expectations, 44% said it met expectations and 12% said it exceeded expectations.
Pricing and incentives deteriorate. Our price index measured 30.0 in January,
unchanged from 32.4 in December, as 51% of agents said prices declined from last month, 38% said prices were flat, and 11% said prices increased. Our incentive index came in at 30.7 in January, indicating higher incentives as 52% of agents said incentives increased, 34% said they were unchanged, and 14% said incentives were decreased.
Time needed to sell lengthens again – a negative indicator of future pricing. Our time to sell index fell to 12.0 in January from 16.2 in December, as 78% of agents said it is taking longer to sell, 20% said it is taking the same length of time, and 2% said it is taking less time to sell a home.
Comments from real estate agents:
“Buyers feel the market has yet to reach its lowest point.”
“Buyers remain cautious as prices continue to fall.”