The Catalina Foothills

Tucson-to-Phoenix "megalopolis"

If you're down in the dumps about the state of the current real estate market in Arizona, and betting against an uptick in future home values, particularly in the Tucson to Phoenix corridor, you may get some comfort from what forecasters are predicting in this article in the AZ Daily Star, With growth boom, 24-lane freeways may be in AZ future. On the other hand, it sounds like a future that many of us have tried to escape by moving to AZ, and therein lies the problem.

todays numbers for the Tucson Foothills

As I've explained in previous posts over the last 10 days or so, the edit functions on my web site thefoothillsToday.com are STILL not functioning, due to a temporary (so they say) software glitch.
So there are a couple of bits of information that I cannot update on the site, so here they are here:
Today there are 489 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills (that's single family homes, not counting condos, etc), and, to see all the homes priced $500,000 & Up that have Sold in the Foothills during the past 30 days, including all the pictures from the MLS, the list price, the sold price, $/sq ft and more, Click Here Thank you.
The inventory is creeping up in the Tucson Foothills. Just a few days ago there were 472 homes for sale, a few weeks ago there were about 450. Today, 489. Last summer we averaged about 360 homes for sale, and that's when the inventory started to grow, little by little. The biggest increases in the number of homes for sale have occurred since this past January, which is traditionally the start of our big home selling season. And while sales have been OK, they haven't been OK enough to keep up with the number of homes coming on the market - in a day or two I'll publish the sales numbers for January thru April  for Tucson Foothills homes. In another six weeks or so we'll be coming to the end of our high season for home sales in the Foothills and if things keep up the way they've been, we'll end up with lots of inventory. For us, 489 homes for sale is lots of inventory, but see my post buyers market, Holy Cow! for some insight on the inventory vs buyers expectations, in the Tucson Foothills.

todays numbers for the Tucson Foothills

On my web site thefoothillsToday.com there are a couple of bits of information that I usually update everyday. The first is the number of homes that are for sale in the Tucson Foothills, and the other is a link to all the homes priced from $500K and Up that have Sold in the last 30 days.
I haven't been able to update this information now for 5,6,7, that's 8 days, because of what I was calling a software glitch, and am now calling a major pain in the butt with my web site.
So once again, here it is here. Today there are 472 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills (that's single family homes, not counting condos, etc), and, to see all the homes priced $500,000 & Up that have Sold in the last 30 days, including all the pictures from the MLS, the list price, the sold price, $/sq ft and more, Click Here Thank you.

built for the desert

In an earlier post about Josias Joesler - A Tucson Classic - I mentioned that he designed and built desert homes that are at home in the desert. He worked in Tucson back in the 30's, 40's and 50's when air conditioning was either nonexistent or in it's infancy, so it was vitally important to build homes that were in harmony with the desert environment. And although we now have very sophisticated heating and cooling systems available, in order to enjoy desert living to it's fullest there are a few key elements of home design that should be considered. The summer sun is blisteringly hot in the desert and having a home that is designed and oriented to shield you from that hot sun is very important.
Here are a few basic things to keep in mind when you're searching for your desert home;
Orientation- Ideally a Tucson home should have what we call a north/south orientation. A north/south orientation means that the long sides of the house, generally the front and back, face north and south. So for example, the back of the house and the backyard faces north, and the front of the house faces south. Or vice-a-versa. Either way it's a north/south orientation, which protects you from the rising sun, and more importantly, from the late afternoon sun, which is hotter than you can imagine in the summer. With a north/south orientation the smallest/narrowest parts of the house get the direct hit from the morning and afternoon sun- you have light but no direct sun blazing in the windows. With an east/west orientation, you get the rising sun in the morning and the late afternoon sun hitting the longest, broadest, biggest sides of your house, and shining directly in all the windows. So of course your house gets much hotter and your AC has to work it's hardest to keep the place cool, which it may or may not be able to do. And with an east/west orientation, you'll probably have to cover your windows in the morning to keep the sun out, but you will definitely have to cover them in the afternoon to block out the blazing summer sun. So you'll be shut in to virtually windowless rooms until the sun sets, and that's at about 7:45 in the summer. And if your backyard or patio faces west, forget about sitting out there in the late afternoon during the summer, it's just too hot. A north/south orientation is the most important feature of a desert home. Besides, in the Foothills the mountain views are to the north and the city views to the south. If you get the orientation right, everything else is icing on the cake.
Covered porches, patios- It's great to have a covered porch or patio so that you can sit outside, out of the sun and enjoy Tucson's great weather, and have lunch or dinner outdoors, at any time of year. Having covered outdoor space is a key feature for being able to enjoy the Tucson lifestyle. On the south side of the house a covered porch or patio will also keep the sun off the exterior walls of the house, which will keep it cooler, and you'll have that shady area to relax out of the sun all day long.
Windows- Windows on the west side of the house are a no-no in the desert because of that blazing afternoon sun. If your house has an east/west orientation you're going to have windows on the west side, because that's either the front, or worse yet, the back of your house. Great big expanses of windows are great for the views but when it's 110 outside they allow a lot of heat to penetrate the house. Make sure that the windows are double pane low e glass. And windows that are recessed 6 to 8 inches or more from the exterior of the house keep the daytime summer sun from shining into the south side of the house.
Type of Construction- Back when Joesler was building homes in Tucson, he used adobe or brick or some other masonry material because it is more substantial and it does a much better job of insulating the house from the heat. Many of the homes that I show to clients during the summer are vacant, because many of the homes here in the Tucson Foothills are second homes, and the owners are back in Chicago or Columbus for the summer. When it's 100 degrees outside and we walk into a vacant (the AC is turned off) frame stucco built house, it's 115 in the house. 20 minutes later when we walk into a vacant masonry built house, but particularly one built of adobe, it's 80 to 85 degrees in the house, with no AC.
Masonry construction, particularly adobe, or straw bale (though straw bale is rare in Tucson) works very well as a thermal barrier, keeping the interior cooler than the temperature outside, with no AC. Our first house here in Tucson was a beautiful newer frame stucco built house with some west facing windows. We sold it, and recently moved to a classic Tucson adobe built home, with a perfect north/south orientation and a covered porch on the entire south side of the house. Last month the weather gurus were predicting a string of days with temperatures in the low 90's, the low 90's in March is somewhat unusual. So based on our experience in our old frame stucco house, we figured we'd have to turn on the AC. Never happened. The tempeature did hit the low 90's for a few days, but inside the house, it was about 74 degrees. Adobe, ahhh! 

A Tucson Classic

Though both are deceased, Tucson's favorite architect, Josias Joesler, and Lee Marvin one of Tucson's more famous former residents, are together in one magnificent residence. The Marvin Residence, the stunning 12.2 acre Joesler estate of the late actor Lee Marvin was recently put up for sale. According to the property information in the listing; "Located in the ''Old Foothills'',this stuccoed mud adobe treasure built around a courtyard w/massive fountain offers 7,400 historic square feet,full guest house,tennis court,pool,city/mtn views,patios,walkways,mission tile porches w/chinked mortar,scored concrete floors,high beamed & planked ceilings,blacksmith-made wrought iron light fixtures,curtain rods, door handles designed by Mr. Marvin. Privacy, character & provenance".

Joesler's legacy of building substantial homes of timeless character and style and his devotion to building desert homes that are at home in the desert, is nowhere more evident than in this magnificent estate. Joesler's (as we call them here in Tucson) don't come along too often, and the Marvin Residence, the largest of the Joesler's that I've seen come to market, both in the size of the house and the land, is sure to fuel what has been a growing interest in these classic Tucson homes.
The story that I've heard is that Lee Marvin loved Tucson, and in 1975 while he was in Africa filming a movie he heard about this house coming up for sale. I don't know what he paid for it back then, but the list price today is $6,000,000. And by the way, this is not my listing, I'm just a big fan of Joesler and the homes he built in the Foothills, and Lee Marvin has always been one of my absolute favorite actors.
The listing agent is Rusell Long of Long Realty.
Here are a few pictures from the listing in the MLS.

todays numbers for the Tucson Foothills

On my web site thefoothillsToday.com there are a couple of bits of information that I usually update manually everyday. The first is the number of homes that are for sale in the Foothills, and the other is a link to all the homes priced from $500K and Up that have Sold in the last 30 days.
I haven't been able to update this information for 5 days now because of a software glitch with my web site that's taking longer than usual to untangle.
So, here it is here. Today there are 467 homes for sale in the Foothills (that's single family homes, not counting condos, etc), and, to see all the homes priced $500,000 & Up that have Sold in the last 30 days, including all the pictures from the MLS, the list price, the sold price, $/sq ft and more, Click Here 

builder goes bankrupt

There's a story in the AZ Daily Star about a Tucson builder who apparently got in over his head and is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. I'm sure this is not the first and it won't be the last builder who gets into a tight spot before things even out in the latest real estate boom and bust cycle. But the thing that stands out is that all the people interviewed for the article are people who are either owed money by this builder or who are in the midst of having a home built by them. And all of them have more or less had the rug pulled out from under them, but despite that, they all have nothing but good things to say about this builder, AmericaBuilt Construction.That's quite a tribute. Tucson Home Firm files for Chapter 11
I wish them luck getting it together.

buyers market, Holy Cow!

For a long time now, what almost two years, the real estate market across the country has been in decline. And there's been a constant barrage of news across all media about that decline. Sales are down, inventory is up, prices are skidding, how low can it go, foreclosures are rising, sellers can't sell, a ton of inventory to choose from, it's a buyers market, buyers market, buyers market.
For the Greater Tucson metro area we've recently passed the 10,000 mark in the number of homes listed for sale, an all time record. And so, it is a buyers market in Tucson.
And of course this is the stuff that gets batted around all over the place, 10,000 homes for sale in Tucson. Buyers market, Holy Cow!
So when people come to town looking to buy a home in the Foothills they have high expectations of having the pick of a very big litter, and of getting a really good deal once they choose the home they would like to buy. And that's because the state of the real estate market in the Foothills gets lumped in with the rest of Tucson and Tucson gets lumped in with Phoenix and the slowing market and growing inventory in all of Arizona. And that's what gets reported in all the media, and that's what people hear. But that's misleading. The Tucson Foothills is a niche market that traditionally accounts for only about 6% of all Tucson metro area home sales. And currently there are just 470 single family homes listed for sale in the Foothills, and for us, that's a  lot of homes for sale, it's a record for the Foothills. But it's not 10,000. And the price range for those 470 homes extends from $235,000 all the way up to about $8,000,000. Then from $8,000,000 the price takes a giant leap to $22,000,000 for one mega home that even has it's own name, Campbell Cliffs. Look out below! So those 470 homes that are for sale in the Foothills cover a lot of territory in terms of price, size, style, amenities, etc. And while sales in the Foothills are down, and inventory is up - and because of that it is a buyers market, I've reported that frequently right here - it's nothing like what's happening in the rest of Tucson and worlds away from the Phoenix market. Let's say you're looking for a home in what is the middle price range for the Foothills, somewhere between $600K and 1mil. Here's what you have to choose from; between $600,000 and $700,00- there are 44 homes for sale; $700,000 to $800,000, 34 homes for sale; $800,000 to $900,000, 29 for sale; $900,000 to $1,000,000, 27 for sale. Jumping to $1,400,000 to $1,5000, there are just 17 homes for sale. And that's everything - the good, the bad and the ugly, the old, the new, 1 story, 2 story, modern, Mediterranean, and medieval, all sizes and shapes, and with your favorite shade of avocado appliances. Now plug your personal criteria into any of those price ranges and I'll bet you don't end up with more than 8 or 9 homes that roughly meet that criteria, and that's on paper. Once you go out and look at those homes and start eliminating the ones that aren't what they seemed to be, or what you'd hoped they'd be, or that don't work for one reason or another, you're very likely down to one or two homes as possible contenders, if you're lucky. Home buyers from out of town turn to me with a 'that's it, that's all there is'. That's the reality of this market, slower sales, higher inventory, but really not that much to choose from once you start slicing it and dicing it.

The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 4/18

Here's a look at the sales activity for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills during the past two weeks - that's 4/4 - 4/18/07. This activity took place against an average of 460 homes listed for sale during this period -priced from $225,000 to $22,000,000.
New Listings = 66 (priced from $269,900 - $6,000,000)
Homes gone under contract = 36 (priced from $285,000- $2,250,000)
Homes Sold = 30 (priced $248,000 - $1,775,000)
Price Reductions = 58
Price Increases = 8
Expired Listings = 9
Withdrawn Listings = 18
There's been some improvement in sales activity compared to the previous two week report. This time around there have been: 12 more New Listings, 6 more homes have gone under contract, and 8 more homes SOLD. While homes are selling in all price ranges, albeit somewhat sluggishly, the number of homes for sale continues to creep up, and this continues to be a buyers market.
To see all the homes priced $500,000 and UP that have SOLD in the Tucson Foothills during the last 30 days, including List Price, Sale Price, $/sq. ft and more, go to my website thefoothillsToday.com  and click on Just Listed/Just Sold. It's updated daily.
For sales numbers during previous two week periods this year, please see:
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 3/28
The Latest - Tucson Foothills Home Sales, 3/14
As always, the source for this data is the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.   

an uptick in Tucson Foothills home sales

Recently there's been a sudden uptick in closed sales of Tucson Foothills homes. Maybe it's a quirk, or a blip, but it's not completely unexpected. On March 10 I noted in a piece titled 'slower sales in the Tucson Foothills?', that while closed sales had been dismal in January & February, down 35% or more from last year, that looking on the bright side there were 63 homes in escrow - and that if most of them actually closed - we'd be doing quite well.
It looks as if that's what's happening now. Let's take a look: In November 2006 - 35 homes sold. December 2006 - 28 homes sold. January 07 - 23 sold. February 07 - just 19 sold.
Then suddenly in March 07 - 39 homes sold. And in the past 30 days, 43 homes have sold.
The timing is just right. 30 days after noting that a large number of homes are in escrow, we're seeing a significant increase in closed sales. That's an uptick worth watching.
**These results are for single family homes, priced $500,000 & Up in the Tucson Foothills, sold thru the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.

1st quarter, Tucson Foothills Home Sales

Here's the sales data for the first quarter of 2007 vs. 2006 - for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills, SOLD through the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.

Price range	1/1-3/31 2006 # Homes Sold	1/1-3/31 2007 # Homes Sold	+/- %
$500,000 - $750,000	50	41	-18%
$750,000 - $1,000,000	27	21	-22%
$1,000,000 - $1,500,000	27	8	-70%
$1,500,000 - $2,000,000	7	7	+/-0%
$2,000,000 & UP	8	2	-75%
Total Homes SOLD	119	79	-33%
Average List Price	$775,594	$715,320	-7%
Average Sale Price	$744,610	$682,334	-8%

The slope has gotten a lot more slippery lately- with sales down across all price ranges, including the upper bracket which until recently had been doing better than ever and seemed to be immune to the slowdown in the rest of the market. And more significant yet is the fact that the Avg. List and Avg. Sale prices are down 7 & 8% for the quarter.
Many real estate markets around the country started stalling in mid 2005, and by 2006 they were firmly in negative territory. In the Foothills the slowdown didn't take hold until 9 or 10 months later, until around  April/May of 2006. So that first quarter was a very good one for home sales in the Foothills. And then month by month sales slowed, until December of 06 and the very beginning of this year, when it looked as if sales were starting picking up again. Maybe next quarter.