The Catalina Foothills

see if this computes for you, cause I don't get it

The Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service just released the sales numbers for October 2007 under the following banner.
"TUCSON REAL ESTATE MARKET MAY BE SAYING "WE'RE HOLDING OUR OWN".when reviewing the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service October 2007 statistics."
"For the fifth consecutive month new contracts opening escrow in '07 exceeded the same month in 2006.
"The October 2007 shows 993 new pending contracts, and the October 2006 shows 782."
OK, that sounds really promising, pending contracts are up again significantly for the fifth consecutive month vs the same month last year. Great!
Yet somehow and inexplicably, the TARMLS report indicates that -
"Home Sales Units: Decreased 27.85% from 1,095 in October 2006 to 790 in October 2007."
This has been the case since June of this year - TARMLS reports that pending contracts are UP significantly - +18% in June, +63% in July,
+14% in August, +32% in September, +26% in October, YET SALES ARE DOWN, -19% in June, -10% in July, -26% in August, -36% in September, -27% in October.
How can that be. What happened to all those homes under contract.
For each of the last five months, they report significantly higher pending contracts than in the same months in 2006. And each month they predict that these higher pending contracts will soon translate into higher closed sales.
"It's elementary, my dear Watson", more homes under contract, soon equal more homes sold. That makes sense.
What doesn't make sense, is that in 2007, more homes under contract does not equal more homes sold.
It doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to figure out that something is amiss here. Either an awful lot of deals are falling through each month, 30%, 40%, or more, or an unusually high number of these deals are for new homes that have yet to close escrow.
Both of those are possible. But after making this same cheerful prediction, which in five months has yet to come true, wouldn't it be nice if along with the rather dubious RAH-RAH headlines, TARMLS offered an explanation for why this is happening, or not happening, as the case may be. 
I emailed an official at TARMLS and asked if they had an explanation or a theory that would help shed light on this.
I didn't get a reply.
A lot of us are scratching our heads and waiting for that a-ha explanation from TARMLS. 

the pulse of the market in the Tucson foothills, 11/28

In the last two weeks;

46    homes have been listed for sale

42    homes have had price reductions

20    homes have gone under contract

17    homes have sold

505  homes are listed for sale in the Foothills today

These numbers, all down from the last two week period, with fewer new listings, price reductions, etc, reflect what is a normal slowdown during the holidays.  
The 20 homes that have gone under contract are priced from $184,500 up to $1,295,000, with the solds ranging from $320,000 up to $995,000, both reflecting a narrower price range at the top end than in recent months. 
For YTD sales stats see, YTD home sales for the Tucson Foothills
For details of the homes that have sold in the previous 30 days -
see the individual listings  at Just Listed/Just Sold on my web site.
And for the previous two week report period
the pulse of the market ...

turkey day in Greece

As I mentioned the other day in the holidays, they're here, 'with the holidays here the drum beat of real estate is about to take a back seat to the enjoyment of family and friends, the celebrations of the season and..' So while I'll continue to report the goings-on in Tucson Foothills real estate, like many of you, I'll be spending more time getting ready for and enjoying the people and events of the season.
I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving.
Ours was a little different this year.
We spent Thanksgiving with some friends, and friends and relatives of those friends. There were 18 people for dinner, and it was delightful.
We feasted and had fun, but we were a little sad and lonely.
For the first time ever, we didn't spend Thanksgiving with our daughters, Margot and Jenna.
They're in Greece on a study abroad program, and couldn't come home for the holiday, so they celebrated Thanksgiving in their new world, with their new friends, and we did it here in Tucson, with old and new friends. Fortunately, my daughters were invited to the home of their Greek language teacher (that's her in the center) along with other American and Greek students, to celebrate Thanksgiving, with turkey, plenty of Greek trimmings, and apple and pumpkin pie, which my daughters made.
-The two smiling girls on the right, who are all dolled up,
are Jenna and Margot.

and wine. hmm,
 
They're in Thessaloniki, a city in northern Greece, studying at Aristotle University. And while they're learning to deal with the ways of life in a different culture, knowing them, I'm sure they're also teaching the Greeks a few things about our way of life.
 
 
 
  
They left in June. That was a really tough day for all of us, and it was immensely complicated by some last minute snafus - see 
Our Greek Odyssey, for the gory details.  
They traveled from Tucson to the island of Rhodes and spent 8 weeks there - taking summer school classes I'm told - ah hah,
and enjoying that beautiful island.
Then they traveled around Greece a bit and finally settled in Thessaloniki in early fall to start school at Aristotle U.  
Needless to say, we miss them a lot, and it's harder than ever at this time of year, for them, and for us. But we keep telling ourselves that they're having an incredibly wonderful experience learning about the world out there and having a lot of fun while they finish college.
Enjoy your holidays with your family and friends!

in the news

Some recent articles about Tucson, the Tucson Foothills and real estate related stuff,

These Relics Could Sink a Sale  WashingtonPost.com
What do wall-to-wall carpeting, two story foyers and trash compactors have in common with bee-hive hair dos?

The upside to the downturn  WSJ.com  (this may require registration)
And just in time to deal with those outdated styles, the housing downturn has made it easier and cheaper to build, remodel, renovate and add-on to your existing home. Amy and Bob Phillips of Tucson, Ariz, began work on a four-bedroom, Adobe-style house in February. With newly lower pricing on a variety of items, including stucco, wood and labor, the Phillips were able to afford upgrades such as solid wood doors, glass doorknobs and steel garage doors on their $800,000 budget.

AC in the winter? Brrrr-rilliant!  CNNMoney.com
With Tucson temperatures now down into the 60's, those hot summer days seem like a hazy memory. But they'll be back, and now's the time to save big on a new AC unit or system.

Foreclosure surge hits every area of Tucson  azstarnet.com
More than 5,000 homes have fallen into foreclosure in the Tucson region during the first nine months of this year, according to foreclosure information service RealtyTrac. That's nearly double the number over the same time last year.

Tucson's "Foreclosure Hot Zones"   KVOA Tucson
Sadly, more on Tucson Foreclosures, highlighting specific zip codes that are experiencing a high level of foreclosures.

Homebuilding industry will come back better and stronger from lessons learned during slowdown  AZBIZ.com
And finally, some words of wisdom from John Strobeck of Bright Future Consultants on the current slowdown and what to do about it.
"I am generally a very positive person," says the man whose firm tracks the local homebuilding industry. "I believe there are ways for us all to get through the current market. It will be a challenge, but we will be stronger on the other side."

the holidays, they're here

Let's face it, with the holidays here the drum beat of real estate is about to take a back seat to the enjoyment of family and friends, the celebrations of the season and the rigors of shopping.
Black Friday, the official start of the holiday shopping season in the United States is upon us. It's a shoppers day gone wild, with hordes of people cramming the big stores to take advantage of Black Friday sales. 
And for those with the stamina to jump into the fray, there are plenty of those big stores here in Tucson. You'll find them in and near
Park Place Mall, Tucson Mall and elsewhere.
But if you're looking for a different kind of shopping experience - less stressful, fewer crowds, and with smaller shops and boutiques - try the more intimate open air shopping plazas that are in and around the Tucson Foothills. They're southwestern styled plazas that encourage casual strolling, people watching and enjoying the day as you shop.  
Each of these plazas has it's own unique charm, special shops and an interesting selection of restaurants for lunch, dinner or a snack.
Click the web sites for more info on each-
 
Casas Adobes Plaza
 

St Philip's Plaza


Plaza Palomino


And the newest and largest, right here in the heart of the Catalina Foothills, La Encantada
 

Have a Great Holiday!

the growing condo market in the Tucson foothills

Unlike the market for single family homes, the condominium market here in the Tucson Foothills has been expanding by leaps and bounds. As I've often said, land for building single family homes is very scarce in the Foothills, one lot here, another one there, but no large parcels available for development. Condo developers on the other hand, have been having a free-for-all converting rental apartments to condos in the Tucson Foothills during the last few years.
Things started to heat up in the spring of 2005 when Tierra Catalina announced that it was converting from rental apartments to condos. Well you’d a thought they were giving these things away. Hundreds of people spent the night camping out on the street to be able to put down a deposit on one or more of the 250 condo units available in there. They sold out in 4 hours.
That kind of news travels fast, and it wasn't long before developers from far and wide got a whiff of that action, and the condo market here went wild, with new conversions popping up all over the Foothills.
Ventana Vista, Greens at Ventana Canyon, Veranda at Ventana, Reflections in the Catalina Condos, Foothills Professional Plaza (aka Tierra Catalina), Pinnacle Ridge (aka Pinnacle Canyon), Villas at Hacienda Del Sol, Villas at Sabino Canyon, Skyline Villas - these are all condo developments in the Foothills that have been converted from rental apartments in just the last three years.
Before the boom there were just a handful of condo developments in the Foothills, and admittedly, condo choices were very limited. Now they seem almost limitless.
The Tucson Association of Realtors MLS shows 163 condos for sale in the Foothills. But there are more than that. The way it works is that the newer condo conversions don't necessarily list every single unit that is for sale in the MLS.
Instead they'll list one or two units of each floor plan, like model units. So you pick your floor plan, where you want to be in the complex and your upgrades, etc, and that determines the unit and the price. So it's hard to say how many are really for sale.
But with all those conversions coming on the heels of each other, there was, and maybe there still is, a glut of condos on the market. But they are selling. The MLS shows that 137 have sold in the last six months, and 22 more are currently under contract, that's 159.
And just like the newer conversions don’t list every single unit that is for sale in the MLS, they also don’t report every single closed sale in the MLS. So there are more than 137 that have sold.
But using those numbers, because that's all we have, with 163 for sale and 159 sold or under contract, we're at a six month supply.
And according to my friend and fellow Realtor®, Walter Klein,
aka the condo man, a couple of things are happening right now in the Foothills condo market that can tilt the outcome either way.
- this is the beginning of the prime season for condo sales, and there are lots of lookers, as snowbirds continue to arrive in the Catalina Foothills for their yearly visit. As yet though, this has not translated into a surge of sales.
-inventory is up, prices are down and sellers are more flexible than ever, to the extent that you can buy a condo for less today than at the height of the frenzy a couple of years ago.
-and while buyers today are much more likely to be people who are buying them for their own use, as primary or second homes, vs. the investment craze of the past, in a somewhat surprising development, some people who already own a Foothills condo, are buying a second, and usually larger unit, because prices seem so attractive now.
We'll look back at this market in a couple of months, and by then we should have a good idea which way the winds blowing.

showing your home during the holidays

As the holidays approach, a lot of our time and attention is occupied by friends, and family get togethers, shopping, celebrations and good cheer.
And if your home is for sale, it can be very challenging to coordinate everything that's going on and still be able to show your home, and keep your sanity.
But you can do it. Now's the time to give some thought to what changes need to be made to the availability of your home for showings during the holidays. Think about what will work best for you, and be realistic, and then discuss it with your agent. They should have some suggestions about how to comfortably accommodate your holiday schedule and the showing of your home.
It's far better to post a restricted showing schedule in the MLS during the holidays, that you can live with, and that agents and their buyer clients can use to plan accordingly.
If you don't plan, and just hope for the best, you may end up turning away potential buyers at the last minute. Or worse yet, allowing them to come into your home at a time when you're not prepared, and they feel like they're intruding, in which case they'll be very uncomfortable, do a quick walk-thru without seeing a thing, and be gone forever.

the pulse of the market in the Tucson Foothills, 11/13

In the last two weeks;

66    homes have been listed for sale

79    homes have had price reductions

29    homes have gone under contract

29    homes have sold

508  homes are listed for sale in the Foothills today

The 29 homes that have gone under contract are spread
pretty evenly along the price spectrum, from $235,000 up to $2,295,000, with a similar spread for those that have sold.
So the good news is that homes in all price ranges continue selling in the Tucson Foothills, though at a slower pace than many of us would like to see.
For YTD sales stats see, YTD home sales for the Tucson Foothills
For details of the homes that have sold in the previous 30 days -
see the individual listings  at Just Listed/Just Sold on my web site.
And for the previous two week period the pulse of the market ...

Joesler homes & Catalina Foothills on National Register of Historic Places

I just received the fall newsletter of the Catalina Foothills Association where I live, and in it there's an article by Tom Pew with exciting news for Joesler homeowners and admirers of the homes he built in the Catalina Foothills.

"A Win, Win for Joesler Homeowners"
by Tom Pew
   Own a Joesler home? If so you and your neighborhood - in fact the whole Catalina Foothills com­munity, where there is a unique concentration of Josias Tho­mas Joesler designed homes - will soon be coming in for a singular recognition that few buildings and even fewer com­munities ever receive.

In response to continued homeowner interest in preserv­ing the legacy of the Joesler/Murphey vision for the Catalina Foothills and elsewhere, the Pima County Resources and Historic Preservation and the University of Arizona College of Architecture and Landscape Architecture have secured funding and staff to work with property owners towards the goal of making it possible for Joesler home owners to apply for the voluntary inclusion of their homes on the National Register of Historic Places. Furthermore the effort to recognize these buildings and their environs is not limited to the Foothills area, but will be available on a county-wide, indi­vidual-home basis.

As a part of the qualifying and nominating process, homes will have to meet standards that will include, but not be lim­ited to, the character and natural characteristics of the Catalina Foothills, as well as the quality and preservation of the archi­tectural integrity of the home itself and any additions or al­terations that may have been made over the years to the home and the native vegetation.

Joesler home owners who volunteer their property for consideration for inclusion in the Register of Historical Places and who successfully meet the standards and criteria will become eligible for potential benefits of the State Property Tax Reclassification Program for Historic Properties.

The Catalina Foothills Estates "Community of Haciendas" remains a treasured legacy of the visionary work of architect Josias Joesler, and Helen and John Murphey. Here they created a unique sense of place by the careful siting of homes on large lots when land on the outskirts of Tucson seemed limitless.

By doing so they preserved the natural landscape, main­tained views, and built homes with a regionally appropriate design aesthetic reflective of a "Mexican style" community in a rural environment.

In spite of the huge influx of people moving into Tucson since that era a remarkable number of these homes, along with the property around them, have been nurtured and pro­tected by generations of owners who have moved here from elsewhere and grown to love and appreciate the desert, real­izing that the quality and style of Joesler homes-quaint and old-fashioned in some ways-is something worth protecting and valuing for future generations and for the character of the community at large.

Spearheading the effort at the county and professional architectural level are Linda Mayro, Pima County Cultural Resources Manager, and R. Brooks Jeffery, University of Arizona Preservation Studies Coordinator. No newcomers to this effort, Mayro and Jeffery compiled a comprehensive listing of Joesler and Murphey public and private buildings and pub­lished a small but beautiful resource book on this topic in 1994, and, as Jeffery put it this week, "We have been work­ing towards this end ever since- and at last the moment is at hand."

Mayro says, "As for funding, I'm happy to say that we have that rounded up, and both the funding and the staff time are available to complete and produce the multiple nomina­tions that will make the voluntary protection of these unique building possible for now and for the future."

County Supervisor Ann Day, whose district includes the Catalina Foothills, told the newsletter that: "I think it would be a great honor to Tucson's master architect Josias Joesler to place his beautiful homes on the National Register of His­toric Places. Joesler really was responsible for shaping and defining the look and character of the most beautiful area in my district, the Catalina Foothills.

"It's a win-win for a Joesler owner and our community at large: it provides a tax break for the property owners by giv­ing them a reduction in primary property taxes, and it ben­efits our community by providing an incentive to maintain historic buildings in our community," Day concluded.

new construction in the Tucson Foothills

Paloma Ridge is the newest and largest residential development in the Catalina Foothills. Located on prime Foothills real estate at Sunrise Dr and Hacienda del Sol Rd, AF Sterling is building 54 homes on 13 acres at Paloma Ridge.

The homes range in size from 2277 to 3091 sf. And with a reputation for a real quality product, excellent customer service, a long list of standard amenities, and like the sign says , from the low $500's, these homes appear to be very well positioned for today's market.

The largest model, at 3091 sf, 3 bedrooms/3.5 baths, is base priced at $564,900. That's $183.00 sf, and that's unheard of for new construction in the Foothills, and even more so for a gated community adjacent to the golf course at La Paloma. Add $100,000 in upgrades, and the price jumps to $664,900, or $215.00 sf.
Still very inexpensive in the Foothills today.
Here's the front view of a couple that are close to completion.

And the rear view of a couple under construction.

All of that is very attractive. But with all that going for them,
I'm not sure who the target customer is for these homes.
Traditionally, in this setting, at these prices, the most likely customer would be a second home owner, snow bird, or retiree.
The La Paloma location, new construction, the security of a gated community, and the small lot size with low maintenance, are all attractive features to second home owners and retirees.
On the other hand, these homes are all two-story, and that's almost never an attractive feature to second home owners and retirees. (ps-as far as I know, this is the only ALL
two-story home development in the Foothills)
In my experience, a two-story home is a no-no with many home buyers in the Tucson Foothills, but especially so with older buyers. 
Ok, how about younger families with kids.
Good location, district 16 schools, new home, gated community, OK so far. And a small lot size. Oops! These homes have no yard, just a small patio. And while that's an attractive feature for many older folks, it's usually a big negative for people with younger kids.
Kids need a place to play outdoors. Hmmm!
How about young professionals. Well, maybe.
Riverwalk is a couple of miles straight south of Paloma Ridge, and though it bills itself as urban living (ah, stretching the definition in my opinion), it's similarly priced, it's new construction, gated, and three story, with no yard. And it's marketing is targeted to young professionals. So maybe.
But more likely, it's all of the above, and more.
Because what I think we're really seeing here is the effects of the scarcity of available land, and the very high cost of what land is available in the Foothills today, changing the face of residential construction, where possible.
Forcing builders to use land more efficiently and build more densely where zoning permits it. And encouraging buyers to stretch, re-think, and consider types of housing in the Foothills that is different from traditional expectations.
In a recent article in the AZ Daily Star- referring to the high cost of land in the greater Tucson metro area- Roger Yohem, a spokesman for the Southern Arizona Homebuilders Association, said, "In the future, 25 years down the road, in this Tucson market you'll be seeing a lot more two-story houses,"
That may be so in the greater metro area, and I bet it will happen sooner than 25 years, but in the Tucson Foothills we're there now. We're almost out of land to build on.
That said, I don't think we're going to see a seismic shift in the look and character of the Foothills. Because many, even most of the subdivisions in the Foothills, are zoned and have CC&R's in effect that permit just one home per acre, and many of them also restrict homes to one story. But there is and will continue to be change, and hopefully some positive innovation.
As to the fate of Paloma Ridge, I hear through the grapevine (it's not listed in the MLS so it's impossible to get the details) that the best lots have already been taken.

For Joesler fans

Thank Tucson HOME magazine for a terrific feature article on Josias Joesler in the current issue.  From the magazine;
SWISS-BORN JOSIAS JOESLER’S architectural career in Tucson spanned nearly 30 years, from the time of his arrival in 1927 to work with developers Helen and John Murphey, until his death in 1956. While he designed more than 400 public buildings and residences all over town, Joesler is best known for the gracious homes he created in conjunction with the Murpheys for their Catalina Foothills Estates, a 7,000-plus-acre development set between the Rillito River and the Santa Catalina Mountains.
While many of those Foothills “Joeslers” have been lost to time or overly ambitious remodeling, some still retain their vintage charm. Here are three Joesler-designed residences in which the homeowners have preserved the architect’s distinctive style.
Here's the link to the article, Enjoy!http://www.tucsonhomemagazine.com/features/joesler...(unfortunately, the online version does not contain the photographs shown in the print version of the mag)

'tis the season for Ventana & La Paloma golf properties

Despite the slower sales of homes, in general, in the Tucson Foothills, one category is showing a sudden and definite uptick.
Smaller homes, those usually used as a winter residence, in
Ventana CC and La Paloma CC are suddenly getting picked off at a very healthy pace. And with just one exception, it's the homes with the best golf course and/or mountain views that are selling, the rest are sitting it out.  These golf course homes range in size from about 1800 sf to 2500 sf, and are priced from the mid $500's up to about $700K.
With slower home sales in the Catalina Foothills, and the havoc wreaked by the mortgage fiasco, the jury was out on whether or not sales of these very special properties would take off again once the winter visitors started arriving in October. And even though the season has just begun, it looks like we now have the answer to that one.
In the last three or four weeks eight of them have gone under contract or sold. That's a very good clip, given that there were only ten available with good golf course/mountain views.
About half of these homes sat on the market over the summer and the rest were just listed for sale in the last month or so, in anticipation of the arrival of winter visitors. These homes have always been in short supply and high demand, and despite the slowdown in sales, it looks as if that will continue to be the case. If you want one of these prime golf course homes in La Paloma or Ventana, you've got to be ready to pounce.

YTD home sales for the Tucson Foothills

Here's a comparison, by price range, of single family homes SOLD in the Tucson Foothills for the period of January - October 2006 vs.
January - October 2007. This is for homes SOLD through the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.
Keep in mind that the Tucson Foothills is a niche market, and that during this period there was an average of just 320 homes for sale priced from $500,000 & UP.

Price Range	Jan-Oct 06 # Homes Sold	Jan-Oct 07 # Homes Sold	+/- %
$500 - $750K	191	179	-6%
$750 - 1mil	91	71	-21
$1mil - $1.5mil	76	51	-32
$1.5 - $2.0mil	16	18	+12
$2.0mil & UP	17	11	-35
Total Homes SOLD	391	330	-15
*Avg List Price	$741,742	$722,655	-2.57
Avg SOLD Price	$711,603	$689,601	-3
Median List Price	$598,000	$569,940	-4.69
Median SOLD Price	$580,000	$549,950	-5.18
$$ Value of Homes SOLD	$446,174,884	$372,384,794	-16.5

*The Avg. & Median List and Sold prices, and the Total $$ Value figures, include ALL homes SOLD in ALL price ranges in the Tucson Foothills - not just those from $500K & UP
Ouch! Home sales in the Foothills hit a real snag in October.
As a result, the gap in sales between 2006 & 2007 has widened to it's lowest point so far this year. Much of this is due to the mortgage mess, which in addition to temporarily choking off mortgage funding, led to a lot of confusion and concern, and caused many home buyers to step back and take a wait and see approach.
That crisis atmosphere has passed, and home loans are now widely available from reputable lenders at very low rates. So I expect to see some improvement in sales during November, and for the coming months, as we get further into the prime home selling season here in the Tucson Foothills.
Also, as you can see, there are big differences in how sales are doing depending on your price range, so keep that in mind when you're buying or selling.
For sales numbers through the end of September, see (surprise surprise, YTD home sales in the Tucson Foothills) At that point I was surprised and pleased, but skeptical, that sales had shown some improvement, despite the mortgage mess, and now we see that the fallout just took a bit longer to work it's way through the system.