The Catalina Foothills

November TARMLS Residential Sales Overview

The Tucson Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service recently released it's November Residential Sales Overview.
These results are for all residential property types in all areas of Tucson (not just the Foothills) and compare results from this November of 2007 to November of 2006.
So without further ado, here's the introductory letter from Judy Lowe, President of TARMLS, followed by the numbers.

TARMLS
THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IS LOCAL…..and the Tucson Association of REALTORS® November 2007 Housing Report's indicators show a stable market continues when comparing November '07 to November '06.
For the sixth consecutive month new contracts opening escrow, listing inventory and new listings coming on the market all
supported the positive trend when compared to November 2006.
-The 910 New Contracts opening escrow compare with 891 in November 2006.
-The Active Listing inventory of 9,234 is slightly fewer than the 9,238 in November 2006.
-New Listings coming on the market of 2,224 were also fewer than the 2,380 in November 2006.
The National Association of REALTORS® has projected that the existing-home sales will trend up in 2008, with this same trend
that we see in Tucson, being seen less dramatically in other cities. Lawrence Yun, NAR Senior Vice President and Chief Economist has said, "Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels."
THERE'S NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME TO BUY A HOME!!!
HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND A HEALTHY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR.
JUDY LOWE

(now maybe this is a case of how do you see the glass, half full or half empty, but glancing at the sales numbers below, I'm not quite sure how one could reasonably characterize the current market conditions as stable when compared to November of 2006.
But see what you think.) JS

Sales Snapshot
Home Sales Volume
Decreased 22.10% from $262,678,000 in
November 2006 to $204,906,024 in November
2007.
Home Sales Units
Decreased 23% from 982 in November 2006 to
759 in November 2007.
Average Sales Price (all residential types)
Increased 1.72% from $267,493 in November
2006 to $269,968 in November 2007.
Median Sales Price
Decreased by 2.30% from $218,000 in
November 2006 to $213,000 in November
2007.
Pending Contracts (not yet closed in escrow)
Increased 2.13% from 891 in November 2006
to 910 in November 2007.
Active Listings
Decreased 0.04% from 9,238 in November
2006 to 9,234 in November 2007.
New Listings
Decreased 7.65% from 2,380 in November
2006 to 2,224 in November 2007.

villa milano at rancho sin vacas

Have you ever heard of Villa Milano at Rancho Sin Vacas -
the 'ranch without cows'
Apparently not too many people have. And that's too bad.

It's a newer community of single family homes and townhomes built during the last couple of years in the Tucson Foothills.
Recently I had occasion to be up there looking at some of the homes for sale. I was very impressed, they're very well done.
Located within Sin Vacas, an established guard-gated community high in the Tucson Foothills, the homes are new or newer, they were built in the last two years, they're very attractive - with good floorplans,
high quality materials and finishes - and they appear to be very
well-built. And the streets have charming names,
Via Corta Dei Fiori (way of the flowers)
Viale Di Buona Fortuna (tree lined avenue of good fortune)
But despite all that, sales have been slow.
There are 72 home sites in Villa Milano, and 24 homes are currently listed for sale through the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS - Of those 24 for sale, they are about evenly split between completed homes, some of which are re-sales, and homes that are yet to be built being offered by the builder. And yes, it appears that some of the resale homes were originally bought by investors.
This subdivision, which was announced during the peak of the boom seems to be having a difficult time getting off the ground now that real estate has cooled.
And that's certainly a concern and worth further investigation.
But if you're looking at the patio homes or golf villas in La Paloma or Ventana, or even larger homes in a guard-gated Foothills community, and you don't need to be next to a golf course, you might want to consider Villa Milano.
In my opinion, the homes in Villa Milano are nicer than what is generally available in those country club communities, and they're newer, and given that there are quite a few for sale, there may be an opportunity to make a good deal.
The 24 homes for sale in Villa Milano are list priced from $475K to $860K, and they range from 1840 sf to about 2740 sf.
Click Villa Milano at Rancho Sin Vacas to see all the homes for sale.
Buona Fortuna!

the pulse of the market in the Tucson foothills, 12/12

In the last two weeks;

59    homes have been listed for sale

45    homes have had price reductions

13    homes have gone under contract

25    homes have sold

515  homes are listed for sale in the Foothills today

The 13 homes that have gone under contract are priced from $290,000 up to $3,500,000, with the solds ranging from $170,000 up to $2,225,000, once again reflecting the broad price range of available homes in the Tucson Foothills. While the number of homes going under contract is down from recent months, this is not unexpected given the holiday season. You've heard it said that the holidays are a good time to buy because there are fewer buyers out and about and therefore sellers will be more appreciative and flexible in considering your offer. That's probably true.
But I think a stronger motivation is that with the end of the year looming, sellers are apt to be more flexible because of an 'out with the old, in with the new' attitude that rouses them to do what needs to be done to get it over with and start the new year fresh.
For YTD sales stats see, YTD home sales for the Tucson Foothills
For details of the homes that have sold in the previous 30 days -
see the individual listings  at Just Listed/Just Sold on my web site.
And for the previous two week report period see
the pulse of the market ...

a day in the Catalinas

Looking online at homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills, you're sure to see plenty of picture-perfect shots of the Catalina mountains.
The Catalinas are gorgeous, and the Kodak moments are great, but when you live with them everyday you soon realize that it's the many faces of the Catalinas that make them so really cool and wonderful.
Here's the view out the window of my home office.
After a rainy night the Catalinas were shrouded in clouds and fog,  


But as it began to lift, looks like snow!

Yes, we get snow in the Catalinas



But not for long, with the sun shining and the temperature in the 70's, the snow's gone before you know it.

cleaning out the attic

Have you noticed that when you move out of one house and into another, that you suddenly find yourself with a lot of stuff that you don't know what to do with. Either it won't fit in the new place, or you've finally resolved to not move that whatever it is, that you haven't touched in 15 years, one more time. Or you just don't like it anymore and you want to start fresh. 
Couches, chairs, lamps, beds, that really cool southwestern piece that looked great in the Sante Fe but doesn't quite make it in the contemporary you just bought. What to do. I've given a lot of it away to the salvation army, and other charities, but when I want to sell something I put it on craigslist, http://tucson.craigslist.org/ -that'll take you directly to the Tucson page on craigslist.
I've sold more stuff, cars too, and done it quicker and easier than I'd have ever thought possible on craigslist. And it's free and easy.
Sign up for a craigslist account, take pictures of the things you're selling, and create your own online ad.
Last time I moved, I had about 40 moving boxes that I just wanted to get rid of, quickly. I put them on craigslist as a for free item and within 30 minutes I had emails from 8 different people ready to come by and take them off my hands. They were gone in an hour.  Since then I've been hooked, and have sold or given away many things on craigslist. It works great, it's easy and it's free. You can't beat that.
And when it's just plain junk, and you can't sell it, or give it away,
go to 1800GotJunk.com. I've used them three times in the last year. These guys are a new twist on junk hauling.
You can book them easily on the internet at 1800GotJunk.com
They show up on time every time, they're nice guys, they get the job done pronto, they clean up and you're junk is gone.

YTD home sales in the Tucson Foothills, through November

Here's a comparison, by price range, of single family homes SOLD in the Tucson Foothills for the period of January - November 2006 vs.
January - November 2007. This is for homes SOLD through the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.
Keep in mind that during this period there was an average of just 320 homes for sale priced from $500,000, and up to about $8,000,000 
in the Tucson Foothills.

Price Range	Jan-Oct 06 # Homes Sold	Jan-Oct 07 # Homes Sold	+/- %
$500 - $750K	214	191	-10%
$750 - 1mil	96	75	-21
$1mil - $1.5mil	82	54	-32
$1.5 - $2.0mil	16	18	+12
$2.0mil & UP	18	11	-38
Total Homes SOLD	426	349	-18
*Avg List Price	$739,908	$710,255	-4
Avg SOLD Price	$710,823	$677,204	-4.7
Median List Price	$598,000	$563,450	-5.7
Median SOLD Price	$580,000	$540,643	-6.7
$$ Value of Homes SOLD	$479,805,548	$395,487,123	-17

*The Avg. & Median List and Sold prices, and the Total $$ Value figures, include ALL homes SOLD in ALL price ranges in the Tucson Foothills - not just those from $500K & UP
The numbers say it all. Home Sales in the Tucson Foothills continue their downward slide - widening the gap in the number of sales and the average sold price for single family homes - between this year and last.  
When the mortgage mess hit in August home sales suddenly came to a halt, and given the confusion and fear that gripped the markets, it was a no-brainer to place the blame squarely on that crisis.
But now that the dust has settled, and despite the wide availability of home loans at very low rates (about 5.85% fixed/conventional) the decline in sales has cut a new groove, and stubbornly gone on longer and cut deeper than many of us anticipated. 
What to do?
Up until a couple of months ago I often said, ' despite the slowdown the best homes are still selling well and relatively quickly in the Tucson Foothills'.
I couldn't make that statement today.
*If you're selling your home it is absolutely critical that it be very competitively priced in order to sell in today's market.
Very competitively priced. No, ifs, ands or buts, you can't hedge on this one.
*Make sure that your home shows like a model, and that the presentation of your home on the internet (the pictures & description & details) is attractive, compelling and professional. This is critical.
What shows up on the MLS and the internet is the ad for your home that will be looked at, or passed over, by the greatest number of buyers. Today there are fewer buyers and more homes for sale - you have to stand out and look great to get noticed and considered.
*If you're buying a home, consider that home prices are down, sellers are more flexible than ever -121 homes have had price reductions in just the last 30 days & the average spread between list price and sold price is 4.7% - and mortgage money is available at near historically low rates. These are conditions that don't often occur at the same time.  
For sales through the end of October, see YTD home sales in the Tucson Foothills   

just so you know

From an article in Inside Arizona Business, here's the latest on foreclosures in Arizona.
Arizona Foreclosed Homes Head to Auction Block
Over 200 Foreclosed Homes Totaling $54 Million Head to Auction Block
Arizona ranks eighth in the nation among states with the highest foreclosure filings. According to Realtytrac, there were 6,339 filings in October 2007. About 300 of those homes are in Pima County. The majority are in Phoenix and it's those homes that will be auctioned this weekend. 
Read it HERE, and weep.
I haven't covered the foreclosure scene at all because the very small number of foreclosures in the Tucson Foothills wouldn't register a blip on the foreclosure meters. But I thought the numbers quoted in opening paragraph above would give some perspective, and perhaps some reassurance, on where Tucson stands (Tucson is in Pima county) on the Arizona foreclosure yardstick.

a picture is worth ...

When I bought my first house in 1981 the only way to find houses for sale and see what they looked like, was to hook up with a real estate agent and go see them in person. There was no MLS and no internet.
You had to make an appointment with an agent and go through the listing sheets one by one, pretty much guessing which houses you should see, because at best there was just one fuzzy picture of the outside of the house and none of the inside. So you couldn't tell much about the outside, and you had no idea what the inside looked like.
It was kinda like a blind date, the agent thought you'd be a good match, but you really had no idea what to expect.
Then the agent had to go through the rig-a-ma-roll of making appointments for each of the houses you wanted to see and getting the keys from each of the listing agents. They didn't use lockboxes in those days.
And finally, after all this preparation, you'd drive over to the house with the agent, and the second you pulled in the driveway, you knew, it wasn't for you. But you'd come this far, so you looked at it anyway, just because.
Today we're bombarded with real estate information, and technology has given us access to more choices than we can ever make use of.
We can easily find out just about anything we want to know about all the houses for sale, whether they're across the street or across the country, without leaving our chair.
Both traditional and new internet based real estate companies are doing their best to out-spend, out-think and out-innovate each other in providing cutting edge information technology to the consumer.
But with all this progress, sometimes it seems as if we're back in 1981, because so often we still have no way of knowing what a house that's listed for sale looks like.
Because there are no pictures. Or the pictures on the listing are so dismal that they're worthless. Or they're worse than worthless, because they make the house look so awful that only the most determined buyer would take the time to go see it.
Everybody loses in this situation, but by far the seller loses the most.
They're at a huge disadvantage because they're not getting the showings they should be getting, and the showings that they are getting are pretty much blind dates, because the buyers have no idea what to expect. So there's a lot of wasted time for the seller, the buyer and the agent, dealing with showings that are doomed to go nowhere.
Taking good pictures of a house is skill that not everyone has.
That's OK. There are photographers that'll do a very decent job for a a couple of hundred dollars. Pinching pennies? Forget about the ad in the Sunday paper, or certainly the magazine ad that won't see the light of day for maybe 45 to 60 days, after the house gets listed.
Get the biggest bang for your buck, and have good pictures of the house on the MLS and the internet. That's where the buyers are.
For a lot of reasons that I won't go into now, I'm not a big fan of Virtual Tours, but they are usually competently done, and provide a reasonably decent presentation of the home being sold. And they're cheap, about $69, and easy, just one phone call.
There's no excuse.