The Catalina Foothills

coming soon, accurate days on market figures

In the past I've written about the difficulty of calculating the DOM, days on market figures when showing statistics for a large number of homes that have sold. It's difficult because every time a home gets
re-listed, and many do these days, the DOM figure re-sets to 0.
Let's say a house has been listed for 96 days and hasn't sold. And the listing agent withdraws that listing and re-lists the house 2 minutes later. The DOM figure re-sets to 0. If that house now sells in 11 days, the DOM figure in the statistics will show up as 11 days, instead of 107 days, which of course is what it really is. And when you're trying to calculate DOM for hundreds of homes that have sold, going through each listing and counting up the days individually is too daunting/tedious/insane of a task.

I wrote,
'....Unfortunately TARMLS has not seen fit to devise a system that shows both cumulative days on market & current days on market.
And isn't having accurate DOM stats a key component to a better understanding of what's going on in this market, for Realtors®, for buyers and for sellers...'

Well I hope somebody up there heard me, but whether they did or not, the Tucson Association of Realtors® just made the following announcement.
CDOM IS Coming!
Scheduled to be released May 5th, 2008, CDOM (Cumulative Days On Market) will be included in the information available on the Tucson MLS. CDOM is defined as 'The number of days that a property has been on the market without a 30 day break regardless of any change of agent or brokerage'. This information will be displayed on the grid view, Agent Detail Report, and CMA. Where DOM was displayed on those reports, the new field will be DOM/CDOM.

This is a good very thing for everyone.
Congratulations to the Tucson Association of Realtors for making this change.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

what's for sale & sold in Tucson Foothills subdivisions

If you're looking to buy a home in the Tucson Foothills, here's a list of popular subdivisions, both gated & not gated, with basic info on what's for sale and what has sold, and for how much.
The sold figures are for homes sold since 1/1/08 thru 4/28/08.
And if you're selling and live in one of these subdivisions, you can get a quick check on the competition and see how sales are doing.

And while you're at it, you can click any subdivision name and instantly see all the homes that are currently for sale in there,
along with all the pictures, information and details.
**note - the figures below are accurate as of today, 4/28/08-AM.If you pull-up the listings next Tuesday, or a month from now, the number of active listings for any of the subdivisions will likely be different than stated here.

Subdivision	# For Sale	Avg List $	# Sold	Avg Sold $
GATED
Pima Canyon	18	$2,379,778	2	$2,085,000
La Paloma CC	38	$794,869	10	$618,950
Ventana CC	23	$1,395,665	5	$1,610,000
Skyline CC	19	$1,530,316	1	$764,500
Catalina Fthls 10	12	$1,369,354	2	$2,200,000
Sabino Mountain	7	$1,285,700	1	$1,449,000
Hacienda del Sol	3	$1,162,333	1	$725,000
Cobblestone	6	$2,093,833	2	$2,212,500
Foothills ll	3	$2,206,667	0	0
Sin Vacas	3	$885,833	4	$748,750
Bellas Catalinas	4	$1,211,000	2	$742,500
Finisterra	3	$2,798,333	1	$751,000
Pinnacle Ridge	2	$1,012,500	1	$1,000,000
Summit Finger Rock	4	$1,422,250	1	$810,000
Rockcliff	2	$1,189,500	0	0
Eleven Arches	2	$2,499,000	0	0
RiverGate Estates	2	$962,500	1	$625,000
Quail Canyon	7	$586,971	2	$444,950
NOT-GATED
Alta Vista	12	$1,131,242	1	$937,500
Cimarron	11	$830,257	3	$630,500
Coronado Fthls Est	13	$905,446	5	$814,000
Fairfield	18	$522,106	7	$483,286
Flecha Caida Ranch Est	16	$650,919	5	$686,400
Las Alturas	2	$673,500	1	$585,000
Shadow Hills	15	$638,427	5	$714,500
Catalina Fthls Est   1-9	58	$1,263,324	15	$926,553

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

these guys don't mince words

No data, no statistics, just a tell it like it is Sunday read on the state of the market (in the DC area) by two industry veterans

How does this market compare with others you've seen?
Foster: I've never seen anything like it.

Foster: But this damn thing we're in here now is another one that's giving us hell. I mean, pure hell. We're sweating.

McEnearney: And it has extended for a longer period of time. We've been in this for two years now. I started noticing a decline in the "energy" in the market, if you will, in the fourth quarter of 2005.

McEnearney: If they don't price it right, it's gonna kill 'em.

Foster: You've got to price it right.

McEnearney: I think sellers are getting more accepting about the prices they can get now, but not enough, because homes are still remaining on the market.

Foster: If they've got a real need to sell, they do [accept the lower price]. They have to have a real need to sell, otherwise they don't.

Foster: My pick is the third or fourth quarter, we'll see a little bit of pickup. Next year will be fair. Certainly by 2010 there's gonna be so much damn pent-up demand.

From an interview in the Washington Post with John McEnearney, 81, founder of McEnearney Associates, and P. Wesley Foster Jr., 74, founder of Long & Foster Real Estate
Brokerage Barons See Washington Making a Slow Recovery

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

what do you prefer, a home in a gated or non-gated community in the Tucson Foothills?

The question of gated vs non-gated is always one of the first things to come up when I'm working with home buyers, particularly with people who are moving here from somewhere else are just beginning to figure out what's really important to them.
 
Gated communities offer more security, privacy, and an air of  exclusivity.
And if you're buying a second home in the Tucson Foothills, which will be vacant for much of the year, a gated community may offer some additional peace of mind as well.
But of course that security and privacy comes at a price.
You'll pay higher HOA fees in a gated community, to maintain the gate and to pay the gate attendants if it's a guard-gated community.
And homes in gated communities tend to have more common areas and landscaping that needs to be maintained, and the streets in gated communities are common areas and owned by the association and must be maintained (patched, resurfaced, etc) by the association. And in general, homes in gated communities are more expensive than those in non-gated. The average list price of homes in gated communities today is $1,274,334. In non-gated it's $741,203.

But in my experience, whether it's a full time resident or a second home owner, for those who can afford it, being in a gated community is often preferred.
However, there is one big limiting factor in gated communities.
Gated communities are newer communities, with newer homes than non-gated.
And if you're looking for a home from the 30's or 40's, a great Joesler perhaps, you won't find that in a gated community in the Tucson Foothills. None of the original Catalina Foothills Estates are gated.

Here's  a breakdown of homes for sale and sold in gated and
non-gated communities in the Tucson Foothills.
Currently there are 595 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills.
232 of them, or 39%, are in gated communities.
363, or 61%, are in non-gated.

In the last 6 months 241 homes have sold in the Foothills.
82, or 34%, of the homes that sold are in gated communities, while 159, or 66%, are in non-gated communities.

That's the broad breakdown.
Here's how it shakes out by price, under and over $1,000,000.
0 - $999,999
421 homes for sale today
126, or 30%, are in gated communities
295, or 70%, are in non-gated communities

215 sold in the last 6 months
61, or 28%, are in gated communities
154, or 72% are in non-gated communities

Of those homes priced 0-$999,999 that sold,
-the average sold price in a gated community was $599,014
-the average sold price in a non-gated community was $483,094

1,000,000 & UP
174 homes for sale today
106, or 61%, are in gated communities
68, or 39%, are in non-gated communities

26 sold in the last 6 months
21, or 81%, are in gated communities
  5, or 19%, are in non-gated communities

Of those $1,000,000 + homes that sold,
-the average sold price in a gated a community was $1,785,071
-the average sold price in a non-gated community was $1,135,000

For a quick search of homes in gated communities in the Foothills
see TheFoothillsToday.com

days of inventory, in your price range, in the Tucson Foothills, 4/24/08

Here's a look at days of inventory (DOI) for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills. Overall, for all single family homes in all price ranges, the DOI computes to 11.7 months, which is about 2X the inventory that is considered normal. But there are three price ranges where no homes have sold in the last 30 days, and so DOI for those price ranges can't be calculated, and therefore the actual total DOI is indeterminable at this point. But lacking anything better, I'll call it
11.7 months, and counting.
That's why I break down DOI by price range, because as you'll see,
DOI varies wildly depending on the price range you're looking at
in the Tucson Foothills

Price	# For Sale	# Sold	Months of    Inventory
$0 - $400,000	100	18	5.5
$401 - $600K	135	12	11
$601 - $800K	122	13	9
$801 - $1.0m	68	6	11
$1.01-$1.250m	44	0	?
$1.251-$1.5m	46	1	46
$1.501- $2.0m	41	0	?
$2.01 - $3.0	29	1	29
$3.01 & UP	13	0	?
Total	598	51	11.7

**DOI, days of Inventory reflect the time period required to sell all the properties on the market given the number of closed transactions in the preceding month provided no new properties becomes available.
The last time I posted DOI figures was on March 18th, here>
days of inventory, in your price range, for the Tucson Foothills
and the total number of homes sold then was just one less than during the current 30 day period. But if you compare the two you'll see there are many differences in DOI by price range from then 'til now, and in general, DOI has increased across most price ranges.

If you're buying or selling a home in the Tucson Foothills, DOI in your price range is a key factor to know and seriously consider.
And obviously, if you're trying to sell your home, and it's priced at $1,000,000 and Up, you have lots of competition, and few buyers buying. You can't afford to ignore this.

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Joesler and Murphey, they started it all, in the Tucson Foothills

Yesterday I went to a party at one of the most beautiful Joesler homes I've ever seen. I walked around speechless for the first 20 minutes. And when I finally came-to, I talked with quite a few people who are into Joesler's, love the old foothills, and are concerned about the preservation of this area.
It made me think of this piece, which I had posted last year, and it inspired me to re-edit it, to try and make it better, and more focused - so I could post it again. I'm not sure I accomplished that, but I love looking at pictures of great Joeslers and the pictures remain untouched from the previous version. 
   
John Murphey, the founder and developer of the Catalina Foothills Estates, in partnership with the architect Josias Joesler, were visionaries in the development of the Tucson Foothills, which until they came along, was a remote and undeveloped area of Tucson.

Their vision was to create a lifestyle that would be attractive to wealthy mid-western and eastern families seeking a winter refuge in a desert environment. Tucson's first second home owners.
And the homes designed by Joesler, while meant to evoke a romantic association with the desert, were often large homes on sprawling hilly lots that were surrounded by the beauty and privacy of the natural desert.

Many of those Joesler's survive to this day, and quite a few have been carefully maintained and renovated to provide modern comforts and conveniences, while maintaining the essence and character of Joesler & Murphey's vision. When they're done right, they're incredibly beautiful.
However many (most really) of the original sprawling hilly lots, which ran from ten to fifteen acres or more, have by now been subdivided and whittled down to nearly the size of your typical new Mc Mansion lot, to make way for more homes. There's virtually no other build-able land available, particularly in the Old Foothills, and as R. Brooks Jeffery said in A Guide to Tucson Architecture - "Today, much of the original rural character of the Catalina Foothills has been lost - an ironic consequence of its success". That book was published in 2002, and since then, builders have become even more creative and relentless about squeezing homes onto lots that until recently would not have even been considered. And the effects of that in-fill development have not been positively received by most people in this area, myself included.

The original Catalina Foothills Estates is ideally located in the center of what we now call 'the old Foothills'. It's bordered by Skyline Dr on the north, River Rd on the south, and extends about a third of a mile east and west of Campbell Ave.
Here we're looking north on Campbell Ave from River Rd, which cuts right thru the original Catalina Foothills Estates

Up here on the left is Calle La Vela -
it's the best street in the Old Foothills for Joesler estates.
I count 9 Joesler's within about a 1/2 mile of this intersection, including the Lee Marvin residence on 12.2 acres.
In the following pictures, you'll see that these homes are very privately located, up on top of a hill or tucked back and away from the street, behind gates and desert foliage.

Like this one


there's a really great Joesler on top of this hill and another is tucked back there behind those cypress trees.
It was on about 4.5 acres, but not anymore. Last year it was whittled down to about 1 acre, with three new homes built on
the lots that were carved off


Turning north on Calle Ladero, there's a Joesler behind the entry gate

Here's a closer look at some of the homes behind those gates and on top of those hills -
these pictures are from 4 different Joesler homes

Clay Tile roofs, thick adobe walls, arches, lots of private outdoor areas for recreation and relaxation, all Joesler signatures


Joesler used deep overhanging roofs on the south side to shield the house from the sun

 

This is the front entrance to this house, and though you can't see it, this large front patio is enclosed by an adobe wall.  The big windows are in the living and dining rooms, and look north to the Catalina's

 


Tall Timber beamed ceilings, prominent fireplaces, scored concrete floors, and large windows in the living areas for mountain and city views are all indicative of Joesler's work





Above, is an Arizona Room- a porch really, another signature
AZ rooms were not heated or cooled and often had screened windows for an indoor/outdoor experience, notice the fireplace
behind the plant. This one has been converted to year round living space, it's heated and cooled, and closed off from the outdoors.
I don't think you can tell from these pictures, but all the interior walls are built of thick adobe- these homes are fortresses


This is a bedroom- with a fireplace, wood beamed cathedral ceiling, and stained concrete floors



A kitchen patio with brick flooring,

While many of these homes have been maintained, or carefully updated and renovated over the years, not all of them have been done as carefully and as well as the homes you see here.
I've seen some disasters that are all but unrecognizable as Joesler's, which is very sad if you're a fan of his work.
And then occasionally I'll come across a more or less vintage Joesler that hasn't been touched in decades, and with those, while the
good bones adage is generally true, you also get to see the quirks of a Joesler.
He built these homes as winter retreats for wealthy families, and it was typical for them to have a cook on staff to prepare meals - back then people didn't hang out and entertain friends in the kitchen as we do today. Or they would dine out regularly, and so the kitchens in many of these Joesler's are tiny, really tiny - particularly in relation to the size of the home.
Ok, that's understandable, but the closets are also very tiny.
And my vision of that era is of steamer trunks full of clothes with a variety of outfits for every occasion, from lawn tennis to an evening at the symphony. Where'd they put it all.

Nevertheless, Joesler's legacy in Tucson remains without parallel.
70+ years later and his homes remain the prized possessions of their proud owners and a source of inspiration for his followers and imitation by those trying to capitalize on his legacy.
 
I frequently see homes listed for sale that are described as;
'Joesler-esque', 'Joesler inspired', 'a hint of Joesler' or
the clumsy 'Joesler-like-feel'.
And  as this new residential development proclaims-
A Joesler Inspired Neighborhood.  Yeah sure!

For last I've saved the mother of all Joesler's,
Eleven Arches, a.ka. Grace Mansion.
In 1937 Louise N. Grace, heiress to the The Grace Shipping Lines fortune, decided to build a 15,000 sq. ft. house in Tucson, just for herself. It was to be designed by Josias Joesler and built by John Murphey. The story goes, that in order to assure her desire for privacy, John Murphey had her stand on the hilltop where her home was to be built while two workmen walked south carrying poles with pieces of white sheet attached. When she could no longer see the white sheets in the desert, and therefore her privacy assured, that would be the boundary for her land. As a result, Eleven Arches was built on 200 acres of prime Foothills land.
(the information about standing on the hilltop, the workmen and the sheets, comes from an article by Ken Scoville, Privacy in the Catalina Foothills Estates)
This is a picture taken in 2004 from the house, that may approximate what Ms. Grace saw back then - minus all the city lights



The front view of Eleven Arches


Above is the living room of Eleven Arches
In addition to being very wealthy, Ms. Grace was very well connected socially, and Eleven Arches was a popular gathering place for soirees attended by politicians, movie stars, ambassadors and the like.

After Louise Grace died, Eleven Arches changed hands again and again over the years, and with each new owner some of the acreage was sold off and the house slipped further and further into a state of disrepair. That is until 1976 when it was purchased for $275,000 along with the approximately 50 acres of remaining land. At that time it was extensively renovated, to the tune of $1,000,000.
And then it sold again in 2000, this time for $2,800,000, with only 19 acres remaining. Someone made a fat profit on that deal.
But this new owner didn't stay very long, because in early 2004 it was again listed for sale, now for $3,490,000, and with just 5 acres of land remaining.
After languishing on the market for more than a year, the property was turned over to an auction house who ended up selling it 2 days before the auction for $2,200,000, with the 5 acres remaining.
If you drive by Eleven arches today, it's hemmed in on all sides by new multi-million $$ homes built on land that used to belong to Eleven Arches, as it cowers in shame at the top of the hill.

**Other than poking around in Joeslers much of what I've learned about the history of John Murphey, Josias Joesler and the development of the Catalina Foothills, came from the writings of R. Brooks Jeffery, an invaluable source.
R. Brooks Jeffery is Associate Dean of the College of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, University of Arizona and Coordinator of its multi-disciplinary graduate program in Preservation Studies.
**if you'd like to see more of what I've written on Joesler click Josias Joesler under CATEGORIES toward the bottom of the right side column, and you'll see it all.

Thanks for stopping by,

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the villas at Sabino Canyon

As I mentioned the other day in, the condo sizzle fizzles 40 condo units are to be auctioned at The Villas at Sabino Canyon on May 10.
There are two 2/bedroom and one 3/bedroom floor plan, ranging in size from 1004 to 1209 sf, and three Starting Bid prices of, $89,000, $99,000 and $109,000, depending on size, location and views.

The brochure says to go to http://www.auctiontoday.com/ for additional photos and information, but as yet, there's no information there on the The Villas auction.
Until it becomes available on the web site you'll have to stop by
The Villas to get all the details, they do have a brochure, or call the auction office at, 1-888-582-7332

The Villas at Sabino Canyon - 7255 E Snyder Rd, northeast corner of Snyder & Kolb

As usual with these auctions, there's lots of fine print about the steps and procedures, terms and conditions, your rights and responsibilities, due diligence, bidding requirements, etc. Read it all carefully.

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

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the condo sizzle fizzles

I don't have all the details yet, but word is that 40 condo units at The Villas at Sabino Canyon here in the Tucson Foothills are going to auction on May 10.

I don't know if these are all the same units, but when they were listed for sale in the MLS recently, they ranged from 1004 to 1209 sf,
2 to 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, and were listed from $169,900 to $220,000.
And according to the MLS, 36 others have sold in there over the last year or so, from $155,000 to $255,000. These owners are not going to be happy.  Unconfirmed information tells me that bidding will start at $89,000 or $99,000 depending on the unit, and there is an undisclosed reserve price that must be met.

But you could see this coming from a long way off.
The condo craze got started here in 2005 with the zippity-quick 6 hour sale of all the units at Tierra Catalina, the first new condo development to open in some years in the Foothills.

Soon word got out that there was fast money to be made in Tucson, and out of town developers quickly bought up all the apartment complexes in the Tucson Foothills, and waved their wands and turned them into condos. But they all did it at about the same time, and in the blink of an eye we went from 40 or 50 condos for sale at any one time, to more than 1000 and growing.  OOPS!

The Villas at Sabino Canyon were one of the last to open their doors, and by that time, the market for condos in the Tucson Foothills was suffering from a severely bloated supply amidst trickling demand.

I'll post the auction details when I get them tomorrow.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

more on % sale price/list price

Back in February, in a post titled sellers are more flexible than ever. what does that mean? I talked about why it's important to know the
% of Sale Price/List Price (92.44% at the time) for the area, or price range of the home that your are buying.

Despite being a pretty dry topic, some readers have expressed an interest in a more current and comprehensive look at the data for % sale price/list price.

So here goes,
From January 1 through April 15, 145 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills, for an average of 94.22% sale price/list price, an increase of almost 2% since February.
 
Here's how % sale price/list price breaks down by price range for those 145 sold homes.

$0 - $500,000 = 95.08%
(62 sold, 7@ 100%, 4@ 101%+, low 77%)

$500,000 - $1,000,000 = 95.60%
(66 sold, 6@ 100%, 1@ 101%, 1@ 104%, 1@ 106%, low 77%))

$1,000,000 - $1,500,000 = 90.96
(7 sold, 1@ 100%, low 76%)

$1,500,000 - $2,000,000 = 92.38%
(4 sold, high 97%, low 89%)

$2,000,000 - $3,000,000 = 92.63%
(5 sold, 2@ 100%, low 89%)

$3,000,000 & Up = 88.57%
(1 sold)

The variation in %'s between the different price ranges is no big surprise, but who'd a thought that homes are selling at, or above list price in this environment. (please note, in all cases the % sale price/list price is based on the most recent list price. So if a home was listed at $750,000, then reduced to $699,000 and sold for $670,000, the % is based on the $699,000 list price. That's how the MLS computes it)

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

do you see trouble or opportunity in the land of the fabulously wealthy

Today I read two interesting but somewhat contradictory real estate articles about the fabulously wealthy.
The first in The New York Times Hints of Fear in the Land of Mansions about the slowdown of the market in Greenwich, Conn., long home to the fabulously wealthy. 
Sales are down 39% from last year in Greenwich, where they call the $2.0 to $4.0m price range, the meat and potatoes houses.

At the more respectable end of the Greenwich market, Mel Gibson's got his place for sale for $39,000,000 and Leona Helmsley's 40 acre spread is listed at $125,000,000.
But even in the rarefied air of Greenwich, the downturn is causing a touch of panic. A home that was recently listed for $11.5, then shamelessly reduced to $8.5, finally sold for just $6.9.  
What's the world coming to!

Realizing that other sweet spots in our hemisphere are experiencing similar downturns, I concluded that buying a second, or third home, perhaps in the Tucson Foothills even, would be last on the
to-do list of these hopelessly stressed lords and ladies of the manor.  

But then I picked up the Wall Street Journal and read
Sunny Side of the Street, America's wealthy see buying opportunities in sluggish real-estate market , (this may require a subscription, if so, let me know and I'll email it to you)
(reading it, I wondered, could this just be Rupert having fun, in a not so subtle poke at his new rival, The New York Times)

The Journal presented a very different side of the real estate street, as perceived by the wealthy. From the article,
"While many average Americans are skittish about the housing market, some of the country's richest citizens see the current conditions as perfect for buying, according to the Annual Survey of Affluence and Wealth in America..."
"Seventy-seven percent of the wealthiest people surveyed think real estate presents a "real opportunity" right now"
"And these high-income earners are putting their money where their mouths are: 40% said they are in the market to acquire real estate this year"
And get this,
"Forty-one percent of those in the wealthy category said owning a second home was "almost a requirement" for people of their economic means, according to the survey"  tsk- tsk, but of course.

I'm confused, but I'm glad I read this one last, I prefer Rupert's take on it.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

inventory trends in the Tucson Foothills

Yesterday we reached a new high, or a new low, depending on which side of the aisle you're sitting on.
For the first time we cracked the 600 mark in the number of homes listed for sale, coming in at 601. 
But rather than blurt that out right away, I waited, thinking that it was just a momentary thing, and would drop below 600 before the day was out. That didn't happen. The trend continues today with 605 homes listed for sale in the Tucson Foothills.

This is all the more curious because for the greater Tucson Metro area, which includes the Foothills, the inventory of homes for sale is down about 10% from last year.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

I've been seduced by staging, have you

Staging homes that are for sale has become a much used marketing tactic in the real estate business. Staging's been lauded, applauded and ballyhooed, about how staging your home will lead to a quicker sale and a higher price.
And in my experience, that's often true. Well staged homes sell quicker and for more money, because they look better.

And that's exactly why, as a buyer, when you walk into a staged home you should have all your antennae up, and look at them more carefully and with a much more critical eye.
It's easy to be seduced by staging.

I know from personal experience. I was seduced by staging long before staging was even a twinkle in a Realtors eye.
Many years ago when I was living in Chicago a friend told me about a loft for sale that he thought I'd like. It sounded great, so I went by to see it right away, and wow, this was the real thing.

A converted warehouse building in the River North section of Chicago, with tall wood beam ceilings, wide plank wood floors, a long row of 10' feet tall double hung windows, a freight elevator, and 2100 sf of open space. I was sold the second I walked in the door, but not by that stuff. 
 
The guy that owned the loft was a well respected artists rep, painters and sculptors were his speciality. So the tall brick walls were hung with big abstract art pieces, and here and there throughout the space were these really cool sculptures. Even in the bathroom.
Holy Cow! This wasn't just a loft I was buying, it was an art gallery. cha-ching cha-ching I bought it on the spot.

Once he moved out, along with all the great paintings and sculpture and bathroom art, and I moved in with my meager belongings, it didn't strike quite the same note of cool and sophistication. 
And it didn't look anything like an art gallery. cha-ching cha-ching
Know what you're buying.

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the miracle of overpricing

As I noted the other day in, 4/11/08, the pulse of the market in the Tucson Foothills there are a lot of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills. About a 55% growth in inventory over the last two years, and sales down about 26% during that same period.
(disclaimer, yes there are pockets of relative strength in the market, but they too are getting weaker)

And while it's obvious to me that there is pent-up demand out there, there are buyers who are actively looking and would like to buy a home. It is also increasingly obvious that buyers resolve to not buy what they consider to be overpriced homes, is firming up, rather than weakening.

One sad consequence of all this is that we're beginning to see short sales and foreclosures in the Tucson Foothills. And while the numbers are still very small, there are more of them than I would have expected just a few months ago.

If you're trying to sell your home and it's not absolutely-positively competitively priced to sell in this market, then you're hoping for a miracle.
Overpriced homes are not selling. And beyond the dire consequences that the owners of some of these overpriced homes will face, by hoping for a miracle, they're also contributing to a growing glut of homes for sale in the Foothills. 589 for sale today. 

Here's one I saw recently - and aside from the short sale aspect, I could pull many others with a similar pricing history - that came to a sad ending because somebody was either way out of touch or hoping for a miracle.

Listed at $935,000 reduced to $919,900 reduced to $899,000 reduced to $875,000 reduced to $849,999 reduced to $815,000 reduced to $799,900. New agent comes on board, price reduced for short sale to $700,000. Sells in 1 day.

I'm sure this home would have sold for a lot more money than it did, if it was realistically priced from the beginning.

There are buyers out there and they're looking to buy well priced homes in the Tucson Foothills.

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4/11/08, the pulse of the market in the Tucson Foothills

In the last two weeks;

105   homes have been listed for sale

90    homes have had price reductions

45    homes have gone under contract

31    homes have sold

588  homes are listed for sale in the Tucson Foothills today

I'm going to get off track here from the pulse of the market thing, because I think it's worth looking at a few simple longer-term numbers to get a handle on where we stand today with home sales in the Tucson Foothills. 

A year ago, in April 2007, there were about 460 homes for sale.
In July of 2006 (the earliest records I have) there were about 377 homes for sale. Today there are 588 homes for sale. 
And during that almost 2 year period, sales have slowed by about 26% in the Tucson Foothills.

So here we are with about 55% more homes for sale, combined with about 26% fewer sales. And all of it in a nationwide economic climate that is wobbly and uncertain.

I'm not a gloom and doomer, if anything, I'm a cheerleader for the Foothills, but I'm also a realist. The bottom line is that there's a growing and very basic imbalance here that cannot be ignored.

If you're trying to sell your home, and you haven't done so already, it's really time to cut to your bottom line.

Soon, the busy season for home sales in the Tucson Foothills (January - May) will come to a close and we will experience a seasonal slowdown in sales. It happens every year, there's no avoiding it.

If you're a buyer, you're in an enviable position.
The inventory is higher than I've seen it, prices are down, the % of sale price/list price indicates that sellers are very flexible, and interest rates are still very low.

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**This data is for single family homes - no town homes, no condos - listed through the Tucson Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service.

no $/sf costs, not today

Following yesterday's post, $/sf, a handy rule of thumb guide, my plan for today was to post $/sf costs for a couple a dozen subdivisions in the Tucson Foothills. And I wanted to do it using data from the last three months, so that it was current and useful.

Unfortunately, there have not been enough homes sold in the last three months in many of the subdivisions in the Tucson Foothills to qualify as dependable $/sf data. With just one or two sales in many subdivisions, and none in others, it's just not enough to go on.  

And it's not as if homes aren't selling in the Foothills, it's slower, but they're selling. Here's how it works out.
-136 homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills since 1/1/08,
but those 136 homes are spread amongst the approximately 420 subdivisions in the Foothills. So in many places, just one or two sales, that's it.
And by the way, isn't it hard to believe that there are 420 subdivisions in the Foothills. That seems outrageous. More, if you count condos and townhomes. This info comes from the MLS, and as I go through the list there are many subdivisions that I've never-ever heard of. I should print the list and see if anyone can identify some of these obscure subdivisions.

 

For now, the overall $/sf cost for all subdivisions in the Foothills for single family homes sold from 1/1/08 through today = $227.34
For the same period last year it = $235.48.
That's a 3.45% drop.

I'll have to go at this again in a month or two when there are more closed sales. Meanwhile, smell the flowers.

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$/sf, a handy rule of thumb guide

I do a fair amount of compiling and reporting of sales statistics for homes in the Tucson Foothills. I show how many homes have sold in one month, one quarter, a half year or year, and compare that to the same period in the previous year.
I compare average and median sale prices from year to year, show DOI (days of inventory) by price range, and generally try to present a comprehensive here's the numbers picture of what's happening with home sales in the Tucson Foothills.

But for some reason I've barely ever touched on one of the most commonly used measurements for determining the market price of homes. $/sf.

$/sf
$/sf is a handy rule of thumb guide to how much homes should be selling for in a particular subdivision or for a particular type of home within a certain area. And we're accustomed to using $/sf.
It's just like going to the butcher and buying meat.
Prime filet is $14.99/lb. You want 10 pounds, that'll be $149.90.
You only want 5 pounds, it's $74.95. Chopped chuck on the other hand is $2.99/lb.
It's usually not quite that simple with homes, but $/sf is a good place to start for a quick rule of thumb guide to prices.

Maybe the average sale price in the subdivision is $1,120,460,
and the home you're looking at is priced at only $890,000.
Does that mean it's a bargain. Not necessarily.

If the average $/sf of homes sold in the subdivision is $247.15,
just multiply that by the square footage of the home you're interested in - which happens to be one of the smaller homes in the subdivision, and listed for $890,000, or, $276.48/sf vs. the average $/sf of $247.15 X 3219 sf = $795,575 - and you have a quick reference of where that home falls on the price spectrum for that community.
In theory it works no matter how big or small the home is. Though all other things being equal, smaller homes within a subdivision generally cost more $/sf than larger ones.

In this example you might be paying for a small filet and getting a sirloin, or there may be a very good reason why that home is at the upper end of the $/sf costs in that community.
Nevertheless, you now have something to go on, and some investigating to do. What, if anything, justifies that price - 
new high-end kitchen and baths and new flooring, larger lot, more privacy, better views, all of the above, ..., none of the above.
In most subdivisions in the Tucson Foothills there are many things that can make a home worth substantially more or less than it's neighbors.
 
But if the price doesn't make sense, you now have a very clear and strong negotiating point to make with the seller.
$/sf, it's kind a like $/lb, Don't pay for filet and get sirloin.

Next on my agenda is to follow up with some $/sf costs for different subdivisions in the Foothills. 

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the bigger and bigger we get ...

There's a perception that the Tucson Foothills are becoming, or have become, McMansionland. At the same time, everything that I read suggests that home buyers are shunning McMansions and leaning toward more reasonably sized homes.

Sales of larger homes did increase in 2004 and 2005 in the Foothills - while sales of smaller home remained steady during that period - but by 2006 large home sales started to fall, along with sales of every other size home.
The chart illustrates sales over the past five years for homes in two size ranges, 0 - 2500 sf (what I call smaller homes) and 4000 - 6000 sf (McMansionland) 
Sales of smaller homes appear to have dropped more dramatically than the larger ones, but they're dropping from a much larger base. And as a portion of the total homes sold, sales of smaller homes have remained very consistent over the years noted.
During that time sales of smaller homes averaged a very tight 47% of all homes sold in the Tucson Foothills.
While sales of McMansions averaged just 9% of all homes sold. 
And even larger homes, those over 6000 sf, were a minute portion of sales (about 1.5%) during those five years.

I think part of the perception that larger homes are taking over, has to do with the fact that the larger homes, are larger, and more visible, they stick out more, you can't help noticing them. 
When you drive around the Foothills, almost all the homes you see being built, look like small castles. And lots of them are being built near the road, so you can't miss them.
And there are lots of larger homes for sale. 137 in the Tucson Foothills today, that are 4000 sf or larger.
That's 23% of the total inventory of homes for sale in the Foothills.

Here's the problem. Since the year 2000, homes that are 4000 sf or larger have never represented more than 11% of the total homes sold in the Foothills in any one year.

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something old, something new, in the Tucson Foothills

Recently some readers of this blog have commented on, or wondered about the number of new homes vs. old, that are for sale or have sold recently in the Tucson Foothills.

Single family homes are listed in the TAR/MLS as either -
SFR, single family residence, indicating a resale home - or SFRNC, for single family residence New Construction. That's the theory, but in practice, many, even most, new construction homes are simply listed as SFR.

So to get an accurate count of how many homes are actually New Construction, one would have to go sifting through each listing to try and determine if it's a new construction home or a resale.
It can be done, but it's really tedious.

Sorry, too tedious for me right now. But this may be even be better, more interesting info. Here's a breakdown, by year built, of the housing stock currently for sale and sold in the last six months in the Tucson Foothills, including the average Sold price and average $/sf for each category.

Homes built 1949 or older 
5 currently For Sale
1 Sold
Avg. Sold $ = $1,050,000
Avg. Sold $/sf = $249.70

Homes built 1950 to 1975
80 currently For Sale
46 Sold
Avg. Sold $ = $467,929 
Avg. Sold $/sf = $189.59

Homes built 1976 to 1999
310 currently For Sale
126 Sold
Avg. Sold $ =  $595,013 
Avg. Sold $/sf = $217.54

Homes built 2000 to 2005 
86 currently For Sale
37 Sold
Avg. Sold $ = $1,065,723 
Avg. Sold $/sf = $268.32

Homes built since 2006 
99 currently For Sale
18 Sold 
Avg. Sold $ = $943,560 
Avg. Sold $/sf = $259.25

No surprise that there are a lot more older homes for sale and selling than newer ones. Older homes have had a big jump start in the Foothills since John Murphey and Josias Joesler began building them in the original Catalina Foothills Estates in the 1930's.
And the number of new homes will shrink even more as time goes on, since there is very little land available to build in the Foothills. Knockdowns is the next phase of building that we'll see.

And as you can see, the new construction in the Foothills leans heavily toward the upper-end of the market. Economics dictates it.
In almost all cases the land is just too valuable to build more modest homes.

And please keep in mind, these are averages, and within all of these categories there are homes that are selling for way more and way less than the average.

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every down cycle is the beginning of the next up cycle

so says John Burns Real Estate Consulting in this delightfully simple cartoon that brings some perspective to the current real estate cycle

1st quarter home sales for the Tucson Foothills

Here are the latest sales figures for single family homes SOLD in
the Tucson Foothills for the period of
January - March 2008 vs January - March 2007 -
thru the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

Price	Jan - Mar 07 # Sold	Jan - Mar 08 # Sold	+/- %
$0 - $250K	3	3	0
$250 - $500K	56	50	-11
$500 - $750K	40	32	-20
$750 - $1.0m	22	21	-4
$1.0 - $1.5m	9	7	-22
$1.5 - $2.0m	7	4	-42
$2.0 & UP	2	6	200
Total Sold	139	123	-11.5
Avg List $$	$715,982	$762,277	6
Avg Sold $$	$682,305	$716,221	5
Median List $$	$567,000	$559,900	-1
Median Sold $	$540,000	$538,750	-.23
$$ Value of Homes Sold	$94,840,355	$88,095,191	-7

This is now the beginning of the 3rd year of declining home sales in the Tucson Foothills.
In 2006 home sales dropped by 25% vs. 2005, and in 2007 they dropped again, by 15%.
Now sales are down yet again, this time by 11.5%.
The best that can be said is that the rate of decline is slowing,
and maybe the worst is over.

Yet through all this, the average sold price continues to be up - it's higher than it was in 05, 06 and 07 - while the median has dipped this year, but just barely.
On the other hand, these numbers are all down from last month - see 2008 Tucson Foothills home sales, so far - and because we're now deeper into our busy season for sales, if anything, the numbers should be up from last month.

Are we on the brink of something here.
Are prices about to finally succumb to two+ years of slower sales and higher inventory, or are sales working back up through a slow climb to recovery? What do you think.

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