The Catalina Foothills

a million here a million there

There's a very special house for sale here in the Tucson Foothills that had a $1,000,000 price reduction today.
And that's on top of a $1,000,000 price reduction just two months ago.

It went from $4.9m to $3.9m, to $2.9m today.
I think these people mean business. 

See it here> Rose Peak Pl

It's listed by Janell Jellison, Long Realty

It's one-of-a-kind,

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

buying snow blowers in July

In the Tucson Foothills we have our in-seasons and our out of season seasons. January through May is our in-season in the Foothills.
Snowbirds and second home owners are here en masse, and showings and sales of homes are at their busiest time for the year.

As June arrives and temperatures head into the triple digits, winter visitors and second home owners have left town and everything slows down, including home sales. It's like clockwork, it happens every year.

But if you can take the heat, it's the best time of year to make a deal on a home in the Tucson Foothills. It's like buying a snow blower in July, there's not much competition. Home sellers realize that sales are slow and are not going to really pick up again until next January.
And when it's 100° in June and the showings are few and far between, January can seem like an agonizingly long way off.
Your offer is the bird in the hand. 

In addition to the regular seasonal slow-down that summer usually brings, this is now the third year in a row of slower home sales overall in the Foothills. Because of that we have a relatively large inventory of homes for sale, and quite a few of those homes have been sitting on the market for a long time.
So our regular summer slowdown, combined with higher inventory and the continuing overall sluggishness of the market has created a situation that heavily favors buyers, and should enable buyers to make even better deals this summer than in summers past. 

Here's what to look for and what to do to give yourself an edge when buying a home in the Tucson Foothills this summer.
The more of these conditions that your subject home meets, the better your chances of making a great deal.

-Make sure to search the market thoroughly and try to find at least two homes that you'd like to buy. The point is, you don't want to fall in love with a house, and then find that the seller's not negotiable,
and have nowhere to turn. You want to be able to walk away and move on to your next choice. 
 
-Make sure that your target homes are priced roughly in the ball park of where they should be. If the seller is way off in the stratosphere on their list price, that's probably not a good starting point to making a good deal. 

-The home should have been on the market for at least four months, and longer is better. It's less likely that the owners of a home that's been listed for just a month or two are going to be very motivated to make a great deal.
 
-If the home is vacant that's a big plus. If it's been vacant for a long time that's an even bigger plus. But it needs to be a primary residence, or what was their primary residence. If the current owners use the house as a second home, it's probably always vacant in the summer, so that's not much of a plus.

-If it's a new builder spec home, that's a big plus.
And if it is, then it's almost certain that it's priced at $1,000,000 ++, and in the $1,000,000++ market there are a lot of homes for sale, both new and resale. And quite a few new-vacant-builder-investor homes. And many of these builder/investor sellers are super motivated to do what it takes to sell ASAP. They're probably holding a big note on the cost of building that big expensive home, and they want out from under.

-If it's an older home and it was purchased in the last two years or so, and it's now advertised as having a new kitchen, baths, flooring, etc, and at a much higher price than the last sale, it may well be a home that was bought to fix & flip, and there may be an opportunity here too, particularly if it's vacant.
 
-If the home has had two or more meaningful price reductions (3-4% or more) that's a good sign that the sellers want to sell and will adjust their expectations to get it done. Little token price reductions, $1000 here, $2500 there, they don't count. As a matter of fact, they're a sign that the seller is into playing games and/or they don't understand or don't care about the reality of the current market.

-If there is a large inventory of similar homes for sale in that area of the Foothills or that price range, or both, that's a very useful bit of negotiating ammo.

Once you find your target homes and you're ready to move forward, you'll have to evaluate each one individually to decide how much to offer and how best to structure a winning deal. There are too many variables to offer specific advice beyond the following generic tips.

-if you're financing the purchase, have that all lined up, signed, sealed and approved ahead of time

-make your offer as clean as possible with only inspection and financing contingencies and limit the offer to just the house and grounds, the real property. Forget about the potted plants, the furniture and the other personal stuff that you'd like to include.
The seller may have a particular fondness or sentimental value for that do-dad that you've included as part of the offer, and now they're agonizing over that item, rather than concentrating on the main deal. Don't complicate the offer.
 
-if possible, make it a cash offer, and if the property is vacant, make it a cash offer with a fast close - two weeks, start to finish.
The combination of a cash offer and a fast close is hard for a home seller to resist. Boom, two weeks and they're out from under.

-If you've done your best, negotiated diligently and in good faith and still can't make a deal, walk away and move on to your next choice.
Sometimes walking away causes the home seller to reconsider.
If not, just stay cool and keep walking.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Memorial Day weekend in the Tucson Foothills

Enjoy it!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

tired of the same old drab look, want something unique and colorful

you're in luck
this house was listed for sale just yesterday in the Tucson Foothills

and I promise, this is unique and not a drop of drab

step right this way

Tamara Choudury the Owner/Agent says it best,  
"Totally Extravagant and Over-the-Top Rock Star Palace! One-of-a-Kind and Possibly One of THE Most Unique Properties on The Planet"


I don't think she's overstating it, do you

Tamara says-
"This home is truly for those who Love to Live Life very LARGE.
This room is massive. With the attached Loft it is over 2,000 sq. ft"

the guys at Dutch Boy must be going nuts over this

and it just proves what I've often said,
if you’re looking for something unique and indescribable,
you can probably find it in the Foothills


see the white door, rumor has it that it leads to a totally white room,
kind of a decompression chamber for color challenged guests,
just in case
 

 it just keeps going
  

 and the fun doesn't stop when you step outside
 

 blue margaritas anyone
 

 Interested!
This house is listed by,
Tamara Choudury, Owner/Agent
Phone: 520-275-9191
Tierra Antigua Realty
Tucson, AZ
And thanks to Tamara for letting me post this piece about her very unique listing.

The Details;
MLS 20819096
List Price - $2,495,000
8316 sq. ft., built 1974, 5 bedrooms & 9 baths, 1.40 acres 
& District 16 Schools too

 there is something for everyone in the Tucson Foothills!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

going through changes with a Joesler in the Tucson Foothills

Named Diez Vistas, Ten Views, this grand old home built in 1937 by Josias Joesler & John Murphey in the old Tucson Foothills has changed hands three times in the last four years.

The latest sale was just the other day, on May 16 when it sold for $1,022,000. While just over two years ago, in March of 2006 it sold for $1,900,000 - almost $900,000 more than it did today.  And before that, in August of 2004 it sold for $1,325,000.

At first glance you'd think WOW! prices in the Foothills are all over the place, and by the way, why does that Joesler keep turning over. But there's more to it than meets the eye. Each of these buyers/sellers had a particular goal in mind when they bought and sold this Joesler, and each contributed to its transformation.

At the time of the 2004 sale for $1,325,000, the property details were given as follows;
4690 sf, 6 bedroom/7 baths, including a 1200 sf 3 bed/3 bath
guest house, + a greenhouse, on 4 acres of land.

and it looked like this,


and this,

and then there's the kitchen,

These new owners went to work renovating this old Joesler, and when they were done, the listing agent aptly described it as-
John Murphey and Josias Joesler's stunning Santa Fe on a hill on 3.97 acres with 360 degree views. Lovingly restored over the past yet yet retaining all of the original charm and character.
And put it on the market for $1,995,000 with the property details as follows;
4752 sf, 6 bedroom/7 bath, including a 1200 sf 3 bed/3 bath
guest house, + a greenhouse, on 4 acres of land
(same as the previous listing, give or take)

but now the kitchen looked like this,

along with other nicely done restorations & renovations,




And in March of 2006 it sold for $1,900,000. That's about a year and a half after they bought it for $1,325,000. So it's apparent that these people bought it to renovate it and flip it. And they did a nice job of it, and quickly too. I think Joesler would be smiling at this one.

Now with this new owner, more radical changes were on the drawing boards. Having paid $1,900,000 they promptly set about dividing up the four acre parcel into four one acre lots. One lot for the Joesler, which they promptly put up for sale, and with plans to build a new home on each of the other three lots, as well as making some other changes to this beautiful old Joesler estate. 

In the aerial view below you can see the four lots stacked vertically.
The three lots circled in red are the one's that were carved out of the original four acre property, and the one in the middle is the remaining one acre lot for the Joesler. The guest house, pool and greenhouse which appear on the southern-most lot were bulldozed to make room for a new home. And the pool was rebuilt alongside the Joesler, but the greenhouse and guest house are gone forever.

 

 

And now the Joesler sells for the third time in just four years, for $1,022,000 on 5/16/08, with the property details as follows;
3509 sf, 4 bedroom/4 bath, on one acre of land.
(so from the previous sale, it's now 1200 s.f. smaller, & minus 3 beds & 3 baths-that was the guest house. and from 4 acres, it's now down to 1 acre, & no greenhouse)
PS, I think these buyers did well at $1,022,000. Because not only did they get it at a good price, but they got one of the few remaining great old Joesler's in the Foothills.

And now there are three new homes on those three other lots circled in red, priced from $1,245,000 to $1,595,000. So it's obvious that this owner bought the property to divide and build. It's one of just a few ways to come up with buildable land in the Tucson Foothills these days. And while the Joesler now seems a bit crowded in, thank goodness they didn't knock it down too.

And it's interesting, but not really that surprising, that the Joesler sold before any of the new homes that now surround it. While the new homes are very nicely designed and executed, there are quite a few new or newer homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills, but great Joesler's continue to be a very rare and special find.

For a different slant on building homes in the Tucson Foothills today,
see teardowns in the Tucson Foothills

and see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

a realistic depiction

The Tucson Association of Realtors® has released the April residential sales statistics for the greater Tucson Metro area. click here to Download april_sales_statistics.pdf

This release is accompanied by an introductory letter from Kimberly Clifton the President of TAR, that summarizes her opinion on the state of the market based on the sales data that follows.
This month she says, " With the first quarter of 2008 behind us, our industry is continuing to show small signs of recovery. No one is denying that the market is certainly not where it was in 2007; although the quarterly statistics for 2008 show a slight but steady
increase month over month" ...
" Some of the factors to look for in a recovering market are active listings, new listings and pending contracts. With an
increase of 27.11% in pending contracts over 2007, a decrease in active listings by 15.20% over 2007 and a decrease in
new listings by 20.87% it would appear that Tucson is headed in the right direction"

Bravo! Looking over the sales data, it seems to me that Kimberly's sober statements accurately depict the current market conditions as well as supporting a guardedly optimistic outlook for the future. So it seems realistic and reliable.

This is very refreshing.
Because at times in the past, before Kimberly Clifton took over as President of TAR, try as I might, I've often had a really hard time making a connection between the (overly sunny) introductory statements & opinions that were expressed and the hard data that followed it. And I've heard from many others that feel the same way. 

And aside from the fact that people don't buy this stuff, and it tends to alienate them toward Realtors® in general, don't the officials of the various local and national Realtor® organizations have a responsibility to provide accurate and realistic guidance and opinions on the state of the market, both to their Realtor® members and to the public.

*Please note that while some statistics are broken down by specific areas of Tucson, North, Northeast, etc, the emphasis of this report is on the Greater Tucson Metro area as a whole.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

quarter 1 housing price data, the national scene vs the Tucson Foothills

There's been a lot of housing news in the news today since the National Association of Realtors® released quarterly sales figures for homes in 149 metro areas. And with an average drop in the median sale price of 7.7%, and 100 of those metro areas reporting a drop in the median sale price, first quarter this year vs last, the news is understandably downbeat.

But before we get on to the NAR report and the national media's slant on it,  I'd like to get this out of the way.
The median sale price in the Tucson Foothills is down just .23% for the 1st quarter of 08 vs 1st quarter of 07. That's not a typo.
.23%. Less than 1/4 of 1% drop in the median sale price in the Tucson Foothills.

That's good news if you're selling your home in the Tucson Foothills, and it's good news if you're buying a home too. Because it indicates that this market has been more resilient to the price swings that are wreaking havoc in those other 100 markets that the National Association of Realtors® cites in their report. The NAR report indicates that the median sale price is down 7.7% nationally, and down 8.8% in the Tucson metro area.
And I'm sure that's true, but of course they don't break out the figures for the Tucson Foothills, so I thought I would, before anyone jumps to conclusions and assumes (it's easy to do with all those headlines coming at you) that prices in the Foothills are also way down. They're not. A .23% drop, from $540,000 in 07, to $538,750 in 08.

From the national media,

The Wall Street Journal -
Losing Cities, and Some Winners, in Q1 Housing Price Data The National Association of Realtors‘ quarterly numbers on home prices in metro areas were out this morning, and they don’t paint a pretty national picture. The Associated Press noted that the price declines in 67% of the areas surveyed in January-March was the largest percentage of declines since the survey started in 1979.
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville area in California was down 29%, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario was second, with cities such as Lansing, Mich.; Grand Rapids, Mich.; Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, Calif.; Miami and San Diego among those filling out the bottom 10

CNN.com- Home prices continue sharp descent
Single-family home prices dropped 7.7% in the first quarter in the largest year-over-year decline since the National Association of Realtors began reporting prices in 1982.

This one from BusinessWeek is my favorite though.
They use the bleak housing news as a springboard to take a (deserved) swing at National Association of Realtors®.
From BusinessWeek Online- NAR puts a good face on some really ugly housing data It must be be getting tough for the National Association of Realtors to put a positive spin on the real estate market when prices in most of the more than 150 metro areas that it monitors are down and, in many cases, way, way down.
But the group and its optimistic chief economist Lawrence Yun appear to be up for the challenge, judging from the May 13 first-quarter single-family home press release with the title: “Mixed Home Price Performance Continues in Metro Areas, One-Third Show Gains.”

Oh well, apparently the NAR is determined to continue singing their own song, while marginalizing themselves and their members. nevertheless, all real estate is local.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

quick update on the $1,000,000+ home market in the Tucson Foothills

Today there are 159 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills priced from $1,000,000 up to about $8,000,000, and since January 1st,
22 $1,000,000+ homes have sold in the Foothills, priced from $1,075,000 to $3,100,000.
And with a majority (16) of those homes located in gated communities, it's apparent that buyers of high-end homes continue to show a strong preference for gated communities in the Tucson Foothills.

Of the 16 sold in gated communities- 4 in Pima Canyon, 3 in Ventana Canyon Country Club, 2 in Catalina Foothills Estates 10, 2 in Cobblestone, and 1 each in The Canyons, Skyline Country Club, Ventana Vista, Sabino Mountain and Pinnacle Ridge.

The other 6 are in non-gated communities scattered throughout the Foothills, in Alta Vista, Catalina Foothills Estates, Coronado Foothills Estates and Flecha Caida. But whether they're gated or not, one thing they all have in common is that all 22 are located on good lots in established communities in the Tucson Foothills.

And although there are quite a few $1,000,000+ homes for sale on less desirable, or what I call in-fill lots in the Foothills - almost all of these are  spec homes built in the last couple of years -
not a single one has sold so far this year. 

But that's no surprise. With a large inventory of homes located on good lots in sought after areas throughout the Tucson Foothills,
why would anyone choose to ignore the first rule of real estate,
location, location, ...

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

recent home sales trends in the Tucson Foothills

Because of the constant barrage of real estate news coming at us from all quarters of the US, it's easy to lose sight of what's happening in our own backyards, which is what really matters if you're in the market to buy or sell a home in the Tucson Foothills.
January through June is traditionally our busiest season for home sales in the Tucson Foothills, and despite all the bad news, this year is no exception, as sales in the Foothills have been increasing nicely month over month since January.

For the latest 30 day period 63 homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills. And given the current inventory of 583 homes for sale, that puts us at about 9 months of inventory (583/63 = 9.25)
And that's an improvement from last month (12 months inventory) and the month before (11.5 months inventory).

So what happens now.
Sales should continue to do well through May and start to taper off as June approaches. There will also be fewer New listings, and some home sellers will pull their homes off the market until the fall.
This season was slow in getting started, as buyers held off making a commitment while they waited to see what would happen.
What happened is that prices in the Foothills have only dropped about 2% so far this year vs last year, not the 7, 10 or 12% price drops that we hear about in other cities.



And now, late in the season, instead of dwindling, home buyers are continuing to show up in strong numbers. (currently there are 84 homes under contract in the Tucson Foothills) Maybe the murmurs about an improved outlook for real estate are bringing buyers back to the market. Maybe the consensus is that prices in the Foothills have been very resilient and aren't going to drop much more, if at all, or maybe people are just tired of waiting and they want to buy a home now, because there are some good deals out there, and lots to choose from.

One thing's for sure, no maybe's about it, the increased availability and lower cost of jumbo loans, has gone a long long way toward easing the path for home buyers in the Tucson Foothills. A few days ago Long mortgage was offering Conventional Jumbo 30 year fixed rate loans at 6.875% w/.5 pt, OR 6.625% w/1pt.(update: as of 5/9 jumbo's @ 6.625% w/.5 pt.)  That's roughly equivalent to where jumbo rates were before the credit crunch.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

have you heard, The Housing Crisis Is Over

Today's Wall Street Journal says so,
The Housing Crisis Is Over, so it must be so.
"The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now".

Although there's scant evidence to support it, either in this article or elsewhere, I'm glad we've finally got that cleared up - The Housing Crisis is Over.
We were going to pull out of this sometime, so we might as well get it over with now.

As you might expect, everyone's going to jump on this news as if it were the Holy Grail.
And despite the fact that the article doesn't refer to a particular city, or area, or part of the country where the 'Housing crisis is over', and by the way, whatever happened to 'all real estate is local', it instead seems to predict that as of today the national housing market is on the mend.
How can that be. Is Tucson going to climb back to a normal market in lock-step with Miami, Vegas and Sacramento.
Is the Los Angeles market going to suddenly fall in line so that it's in sync with Salt Lake and Seattle.

Or could this be the national media sensing the need for a change of tune, to keep their almighty drums beating loudly.
Check out your local market, and see if you see signs that the housing crisis is over.
I hope it is.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

teardowns in the Tucson Foothills

Well located build-able lots are an endangered species that are fast becoming a nearly extinct species in the Tucson Foothills.
There are very few good lots available, and those that are, are very expensive.

Some builders/investors have responded to this situation by carving out lots in places where no one would have considered building a home a few years ago. What I call in-fill lots.

Others have gone the teardown route, finding well-located older homes on good lots and starting over. This is a very popular way to go in Skyline country club, which is a guard-gated golf course community in the Tucson Foothills, where many 60's and 70's vintage homes are located on prime lots with great city and mountain views.

The one below was built in 1967, and sold for $480,000 in 2004

And after a massive facelift it's now listed for $1,685,000



Here's the original 60's kitchen

and a couple hundred thousand later, bon appetit

from Ozzie and Harriet in the living room

to surround sound and knock-out views

Here's another one, this 3160 sf house was built in 1965,
and sold for $455,000 in 2003

and was reborn as a 5000 sf luxury manse which sold for
$1,875,000 in 2005. It sits on the golf course in Skyline
and has great mountain views too

and a new kitchen

and a new everything

Despite a lack of vacant land, this is how some of the new construction is getting done in the Tucson Foothills, and on  great lots in a places like Skyline Country Club. It's is the way to go, in my opinion.  It's more expensive than building on in-fill lots, but if you're going to build or buy an expensive home, location, location, is the critical criteria. It can't be overlooked, because it can't be changed, while just about everything else about a house can be.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

January - April home sales for the Tucson Foothills

With four months of home sales under our belts during our busiest time of year, I think we can now begin to get a handle on the direction of the market here in the Tucson Foothills for 2008.
The following data is for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills from 1/1/08 through 4/30/08 vs the same period in 2007, through the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.

This market has been very resilient to price declines, but it appears that rising inventory and slower sales may be catching up with us,
as evidenced by a drop, albeit small, in the average and median sold prices, for the first time this year. Prior to this they had been up.
And with a large inventory (for the Foothills) of about 580 homes for sale, and summer right around the corner, the near-term outlook would seem to point to yet slower sales and the possibility of further price declines. Here are the numbers,

Price	Jan-April 07 # SOLD	Jan-April 08 # SOLD	+/-%	# For Sale
$0 - $250K	4	5	+25%	7
250 -$500K	81	78	-3.7%	161
500 -$750K	70	55	-21%	161
750 -$1.0m	29	29	0	85
1.0 -$1.5m	12	9	-25%	84
1.5 -$2.0m	13	5	-61.5%	39
$2.0 & UP	3	6	+100%	40
Total Sold	212	187	-11.7%	577
Avg List $	$716,375	$706,442	-1.38%
Avg Sold $	$685,199	$666,258	-2.76%
Median List	$555,000	$550,000	-.90%
Median Sold	$540,000	$535,000	-.92%
$$ Value of Homes Sold	$145,262,179	$124,590,311	-14%

 **these figures were updated on 4/5
I assumed that because of the high days of inventory at the upper-end, that that's where the bulk of the drop in average sold prices was occurring, 

Price	Jan-April 07 Avg Sold Price	Jan-April 08 Avg Sold Price	+/-%
$0 - $500K	$394,238	$374,270	-5%
$500 - $1.0m	$677,064	$692,433	+2%
$1.0 - $1.5m	$1,291,800	$1,240,722	-3.95%
$1.5 - $2.0m	$1,686,615	$1,729,000	+2.5%
$2.0 & UP	$2,431,667	$2,591,667	+6%

But that's not really the case, prices have dropped more at the lower end of the market.
And despite the high days of inventory - about 32 months worth at $1.0 & UP, prices are holding up pretty well. And I think I know why.
Like never before, we now have two classes of high-end homes in the Foothills, based solely on the lot and location.

Before 2005, homes that were priced at about $1.5m and up were built in gated communities or on well located lots in non-gated areas of the Foothills. Since then, good lots have become an endangered species in the Tucson Foothills, and builders have responded by putting up very expensive homes on less desirable in-fill lots, lots that would not have been considered 4 or 5 years ago. And in doing so, they've crossed the line of buyers tolerance. 
Buyers of high-end homes are opting to purchase only those homes that are on good lots in good locations, and bypassing the others. And for those, prices are holding up. location, location, ...

See 2008 Tucson Foothills home sales, so far for Jan-Feb sales,
and, 1st quarter home sales for the Tucson Foothills for Jan-March sales.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes