The Catalina Foothills

charm sells in the Tucson Foothills

This house in the Tucson Foothills went under contract yesterday after just 29 days on the market with no price reductions.
And while that may be noteworthy given the current climate,
the real moral here is that you can't accurately value a property like this using arms length data. You need to understand the market.

I don't know the agreed contract price and we'll have to wait until it closes to find out, but I'll bet they got very close to the $725,000 asking price, which at just 2264 square feet, works out to a hefty $320.23/sq ft. (looking at the data for foothills homes sold in the last 90 days the average $/sq. ft. cost is $213.00)

So why so much for this one.
Because homes like this - older adobes, with style and charm that are also in good condition and in good locations - have become very scarce in the Foothills. Yet for many people they remain the epitome of a romantic vision of what Tucson living is all about.
And they're usually on good lots in the 'Old Foothills', which is a very desirable area, and even if they were building them like this today, which they're not, there are no good lots available to build in the 'Old Foothills'. 

So looking at this on paper, or if you were unfamiliar with the strong demand/low supply for this type of home, you'd naturally think it was foolishly overpriced. But it's not. And it's a credit to Barbara Moylan the listing agent that she knows enough about the Foothills market, and also didn't allow the roar of gloom & doom to make her flinch, and price this home according to some statistic, rather than to the reality of the marketplace for this niche.

Because they're so scarce there's little current data available, so whether you're in the market to buy or sell a home like this, the garden variety sales data won't point to the real value.

I bought one similar to this about 18 months ago, and on paper, I paid through the nose. In reality, I own a very special piece of the 'Old Foothills' that can't be duplicated.

Update  (a little while later) I couldn't help it, my curiosity got the better of me, so I went to Zillow for their zestimate of the value of this home. Zillow says it's worth $558,000, with a cover their butt value range of $468,720 - $591,480. Still no cigar.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

my pick for deal of the week

4365 N Camino Del Rey is a new builder spec home in the Tucson Foothills.
It's been on market for quite a while and having started at $995,000 has had  numerous price reductions since then. But today (just now) it was knocked down to $799,000 and I'll be very surprised if that's not the magic number. It should go quickly now.

It's 3537 square feet, or $225.90 sq/ft, 4 bedrooms/4 baths, built in 2007, new, never occupied, travertine floors, granite counters, high ceilings, etc.

If this is your cup of tea, in my opinion, it's a good deal.

See it here>  Camino del Rey (UPDATE on 8/5. for some reason,
the deal of the week has been taken off the market. as far as I know, it has not sold. just taken off the market. stand by. oh, the link to the listing won't work since it's not listed at this time, sorry)

If you like it, call me.

***  This had been range-priced from $825k-$849k, and it still shows up at that range price on my web site because the listing agent hasn't changed it, nevertheless, the new price is $799,00, hot off the MLS.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

a very proud dad

Two months ago my youngest daughter Jenna graduated from the University of Arizona. Yeah Jenna!
During her last two semesters she worked in a program administered by the University that helped kids-at-risk focus their attention on staying in school and spending their non-school time in positive and productive activities.

The hours were long, particularly while carrying a full load at school, and the pay was so-so. But she really got into it and found that she enjoyed doing something to help these kids and make a positive difference in their lives.

And after listening to some of the stories about what she had to deal with, I have to say that she's very brave too. Some of it is tough stuff.

Because of her experience there and what she learned at that job she decided that after graduation she would pursue a career in social services.

And just like Jenna, she aced her first interview and was hired as a junior case worker at an adoption agency. Talk about tough stuff.
She's been at it a month now, and this is the real thing.

She's the person responsible for the well-being of the kids assigned to her. She oversees, coordinates and administers. She works with kids being given up or taken from their biological parents, with prospective foster and adoptive parents, the legal process and the courts, doctors, counselors, and psychiatrists, and the continued well being of the kids after they've been settled in a new home.

So when I asked her about how she deals with all of the emotional stuff, she said, 'dad, we're helping these kids, and if we didn't do it they'd be in much worse shape' Just like Jenna, just do the right thing.

who's paying cash

In yesterday's post, smell the $$$, I talked about the advantages of being a cash buyer. And that got me wondering just how many cash buyers there really are in the Tucson Foothills these days.

A few key strokes later and I see that of the 343 homes sold in the Foothills since January 1st, 65 of them were cash purchases, that's 18.9% of all the homes sold were paid for with cash, no mortgage.

That's higher than I expected, because in my experience cash buyers have been limited to those buying at $1,000,000 and up.
And since there have only been 38 sales at 1,000,000 and up since Jan 1st, 18.9% seemed high.

So taking it a step further I find out that contrary to my own experience, there are plenty of cash buyers at all price ranges, including many well below $1,000,000.

15.8% of sales at $0 - $500,000 were cash buys, and 16.7% from $501,000 - $1,000,000 were cash. The percentages do start to jump though at the higher end. At $1,001,000 - $2,000,000 32% were cash buys, and at $2,001,000 and up there were 8 sales, 6 of which, or 75%, were paid in cash.

So there's money out there in all price ranges. And hopefully these cash buyers leveraged their cash buyer status to make a great deal.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

smell the $$$

Ten days from contract to close of escrow. That's what happened with this house. A cash buyer came along ten days ago and made an offer the seller couldn't resist. Cash buy - fast close. It's the best way to make a great deal. For the seller it's hard to resist because they can practically smell the money and feel the relief.
In ten days it'll all be over.

This house was listed for $890,000 and sold today for just $753,000,
or 84% of list price. And it had only been on the market for 3 1/2 months, not a terribly long time these days.

The cash buy, fast close strategy is like a dream come true and sellers are ready to jump through hoops to make it happen, because there's no more sure thing than a cash buyer and a fast close.

And in today's very iffy mortgage market, a cash buyer is a gift from heaven.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

my, how things have changed

Two years ago, in late summer of 2006 my wife and I were kind of interested in buying this house in the Tucson Foothills.
We weren't in love with it, but we thought it had some possibilities. But at $850,000 and just 2600 square feet, etc, etc,
I thought it was high by $75,000 or more.

But we were at a big disadvantage because it was a brand new listing that had just come on the market that day. And along with a good location and nice city and mountain views, it had charm and a nicely renovated kitchen, and baths, etc. Updated charm, cha-ching!

So rather than waste everybody's time, because I didn't expect to get very far, I decided to try a verbal negotiation and see if we could get close enough to warrant a written offer. No way, and that didn't surprise me. The listing agent let me know that they expected to get
full price. And I agreed with her they'd probably get it.
But not from me.

Sure enough, somebody had to have it no matter what, and a short time later it sold for $850,000. Cha-ching!

And then about nine months later something must of happened, because these new owners put it back on the market for $899,999. Oops! No way. By then it was July of 07 and everything had changed. The price needed to go down, not up.  

So after six months and a couple of small price reductions and still no sale, the bank stepped in and took over. Now, after six more months, and a couple of more price reductions, that house was reduced again today to $625,000. It doesn't show nearly as well as it did before the last sale when it was in perfect condition and beautifully furnished and decorated. It's been vacant for a while and shows some signs of abuse, but nothing that $4 or $5000 won't fix, and all the important stuff is still intact. But there it sits.

In 06, at $625k, there would have been pandemonium and vicious bidding wars.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the most expensive homes in Tucson

Because I have this nifty snoopy analytical software hooked into my blog and web site, amongst other kinds of snooping, I get to see what people who come to either site are searching for. Now you know,
big brother is watching. 

Joesler's a big draw, and statistics on home sales in the Tucson Foothills and posts on communities like Pima or Ventana Canyon seem to pack 'em in. But unless I'm missing something, there's an unusual number of people searching for 'the most expensive home in Tucson'

Now I'm pretty sure that most of these 'most expensive home ...' searches are not by the hordes of multi-millionaires out there who are actually looking to buy the most expensive home in Tucson. If so I've been very remiss in not addressing this market more aggressively.
But rather, these searches, I think, are by people who are just curious, and want to see what the most expensive homes in Tucson look like.

So without further ado, the top three most expensive homes for sale
in Tucson today. Plus one. Ta-da!
(please note, I take no credit or blame for the descriptions of each home, as they were prepared by the respective listing agents)

1. 2112 E Sentry Ridge Ct Tucson 85718, $5,900,000
    Visit SerenidadTucson online! Architectural details exceed expectations! Creative team: Kevin B Howard/Architect, Robin Hartman/Tara Sun Master Builder & Lori Carroll/Award Winning Interior Designer & passionate detail of seller's commitment to build a Masterpiece residence. This home is a WORK OF ART! LOCATION, PRIVACY, PIMA CANYON, CLOSE TO SHOPPING AND AMENITIES. See attached docs for Material list, floorplan & VT. Call LA for private showing. See it HERE

2. $6,000,000
  The Marvin Residence, the stunning 12.2 acre Joesler estate of the  late actor Lee Marvin. Located in the ''Old Foothills'',this stuccoed mud adobe treasure built around a courtyard w/massive fountain offers 7,193 historic square feet,full guest house,tennis court,pool,city/mtn views,patios,walkways,mission tile porches w/chinked mortar,scored concrete floors,high beamed & planked ceilings,blacksmith-made wrought iron light fixtures,curtain rods...
See it HERE

3. 1620 W Niner Way Tucson 85755, $6,400,000
    STUNNING EUROPEAN ESTATE.Huge hangar(3324sf)4500' runway from own prop. 2 8+Ac prcls. 6 structures incl MAIN MANSION (3 br,den,2studys-unbelievable craftsmanship t/o);1-br POOL HOUSE w/kitchen; large 1-br FULL GUEST HOUSE; STUDIO GUEST HOUSE w/kitchenette; NEW 3-br home; HORSE FACILITIES. 16-Ac fully fenced. 2 wells=secure water supply. GATED COURTYARD W/FOUNTAIN. AWESOME pool area. RAMADA/LUSH YARD/GARDENS. TOO UNIQUE TO LIST. See it HERE
Those are the most expensive homes for sale in Tucson right now.

And then there's Campbell Cliffs
And none come close to Campbell Cliffs, which unfortunately was taken off the market in January of this year.

I say unfortunately, because it is a true world-class WOW! house.
It had been listed for $22,000,000, and featured in Architectural Digest, Dream Homes, and Design and Architecture.

Built in 2004, 25,000 square feet, 7 bedrooms, 11 baths, on 20 acres in Cobblestone, way high up in the Tucson Foothills. WOW! 
Not only does Campbell Cliffs have it's own name, it also has it's own web site. See it HERE

Enjoy! and dream on.

and see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

and yet two more get snapped up

In case you haven't noticed, and apparently just a few have, lately I've remarked on the conspicuous spike in activity in the $1.0m+ home market here in the Tucson Foothills. A spike that's noticeable because, like temperatures in the 70's, it's unusual for this time of year. But also because up-to-now there's been a lot less activity in that upper tier. And even less in the new spec home slice of that market.

And now yet two more have been snapped up in the last couple of days. And both of them are new spec homes.
One listed for $1,575,000, and the other for $998,000, and though technically that's not $1.0+, it was well over $1.0+ before somebody came to their senses. (at one point it was priced at $1.375m)
And though I really liked just about everything about this house- with it's contemporary design and very open floorplan - I didn't think those things could overcome it's unfortunate location next to Skyline Dr anytime soon.

Why now.
This is what I said last time in two more bite the dust
... the spike in activity at the high-end continues, and while I don't think it's the tipping point, I don't think it's just some odd fluke either. I think it's fairly simple. There are some good opportunities out there and some people recognize it and are ready to take advantage of it.

and that still sounds about right to me, so I'll stick to it.

For even more on this unusual phenomena see,
is it deal time for high-end homes in the Tucson Foothills ,
two more bite the dust , and Why Now!

and see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

searching high & low on zillow

As I was looking through the just solds in the Tucson MLS I recalled a recent conversation about the pros and cons of using Zillow to get that same information, homes that have just sold.
In that conversation I was of course the (zillow) skeptic.

But since I had the MLS list of some homes that had just sold in the Tucson Foothills sitting in front me, it seemed like a good time to stop by Zillow and see what they had to say about these homes.

Turns out it's a hit or miss proposition.

The first home I looked at was 7500 Camino Sin Vacas which sold on 7/18 for $825,000. The sale does not show up on Zillow, on the contrary the house is still listed for sale, and with a zestimate of $846,000, and that's awfully close, except that the house just sold for $825,000. So shouldn't they have that info and adjust the zestimate accordingly, or maybe they just stick to the zestimate no matter what.

Next I looked up 5927 Paseo Ventoso. That sold on 7/11 for $850K.
Zillow doesn't show that sale either, but they almost hit the bulls eye with their $868K zestimate for this house, and hopefully that'll make the new owners feel good. The last sale according to Zillow was in July of 2000.

6741 N Placita Apajo sold on 7/11 for $1,419,000, but guess what, it doesn't show up on Zillow as sold either. So if you were interested in this house, you're too late, and they zestimate it at just $1,220,000.
Day late, dollar short comes to mind.

Here's a good one. 5991 E Terra Grande. This sold on 7/14 for $1,475,000. Nope, Zillow doesn't show that sale, and according to them the last sale occurred in 1994. And if they're Zillow fans the new owners can't be too happy because Zillow pegs it's value at $1,216,000.

Last one, I promise. 4265 Camino Arco. Just Sold on 7/22 for $830,000. According to Zillow it's only worth $633,000, with a
value Range of $550,710 - $689,970, still pretty far off.
Chalk up another unhappy new owner. Last sale according to Zillow was in 2004.

Zillow covers a lot of turf, it's fun and has lots of neat bells and whistles, but in the end I remain a Zillow skeptic, and I think you should too.

My only gripe with Zillow was, but no longer is, the lack of a disclaimer clearly explaining the limitations of the zestimates.
That has long since been addressed by Zillow in great detail.
So enjoy, but carefully.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

checked your % of SP to LP lately

In yesterday's post the widening gap between buyer and seller expectations I wound things up talking about how the % of sale price to list price (%SP/LP) is calculated in the MLS.
The MLS calculates the %SP/LP based on the most recent list price, completely ignoring the original list price. And these days many homes have had price reductions, many of them multiple price reductions. So if a home is listed for $1,000,000, then reduced to $900,000, and reduced again to $850,000, and then sells for $820,000, the %SP/LP is calculated based on the $850,000 list price. So this house would show up as having sold for 96.4% of list price. And that sounds pretty darn good, like a normal market.
But what about the original $1.0m list price, and all the price reductions needed to get to 96.4%. Based on that the %SP/LP is 82%. Shouldn't that be a part this picture. 

Not according to the MLS. And while you could argue that 96.4% is technically correct, it sure doesn't present a real world picture of what's happening in the market today and how aligned or misaligned buyer & seller expectations are.

The data for all the homes sold in the Tucson Foothills since January 1st indicates that on average those homes sold for 94.1% of list price. But just like in the example above, that 94.1% is only true after numerous price reductions on many of those homes.

So everyone, including Realtors®, home buyers and sellers, are thinking, 'oh, ok, homes are selling for 94% of list price, that's pretty good'. Wrong!

A few years ago when most homes were selling in two weeks or less, with no price reductions, the %SP/LP data was a more dependable gauge of the market. But times have changed, and today, with price reductions and multiple price reductions commonplace, the %SP/LP data gives a false-positive reading of market conditions.
And that doesn't help anyone.

For someone about to list their house for sale, seeing that homes are selling for 94.1% of list price, gives them a false-positive impression of the market too. If they knew what was really happening, that seller might be more inclined to really sharpen their pencil and price their home more competitively, from the start, and sell it quicker, without multiple price reductions.

It would benefit everyone, including buyers, sellers and Realtors®. And if everyone had a better understanding of the market, it might even help get things moving along.

A simple solution would be to have two different sale price to list price measurements.
The current one, which measures %SP/LP based on the most recent list price, and a second one which measures it based on the Original list price. Call it %SP/OLP, %Sale price to Original List Price.
Then we'd have the whole picture. 

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the widening gap between buyer and seller expectations

Since 2003 the average sold price for a home in the Tucson Foothills has risen from $417,332 to a peak of $703,616 in 2006, a jump of 68.6%. Then in 2007 prices started to decline for the first time, and as of today the average sold price stands at $640,061, a drop of 9% from it's peak in 06.

Not too bad, given how things are going out there. Or maybe not too good depending on what side of the fence you're on, buyer or seller, bull or bear. In any case our price declines here in the Foothills have been modest compared to many other markets.

 
*Blue = List price, Red = Sold 

But what the chart also illustrates is the widening gap between buyer and seller expectations. Things were going along nicely in 03, 04 and 05 with buyers and sellers pretty well aligned on home prices. But as the boom matured in late 2005 and early 2006, sellers continued to ask higher prices for their homes, while buyers were beginning to tire of the wild enthusiasm that caused multiple offers and over list price sales to become commonplace. 

Since then the gap between buyer and seller expectations -
as seen in the ever widening gap between list prices and sold prices -has gotten wider each year. In 2005 homes were selling very quickly for 98.1% of list price. This year buyers and sellers are much farther apart, with homes selling at just 94.1% of list price.

But the real gap is even wider than that.
The MLS calculates the % of sale price/list price (%SP/LP) based on the most recent list price. Not on the original list price. And these days many homes are having price reductions, some of them multiple price reductions. So if a home is listed for $1,000,000, then reduced to $950,000, then reduced to $900,000, and reduced again to $850,000, and then sells for $820,000, the %SP/LP is calculated based on the $850,000 list price. So in this case that home would show up as having sold for 96.4% of list price.
Technically correct, maybe, but not a true reflection of the marketplace. If it were based on the original list price of $1,000,000 the %SP/LP would be 82%, and the blue List Price line up there in the chart would be even higher and with a wider gap from the red line.

So while sellers are adjusting their prices to try and better align them with buyer expectations, it seems that buyers have been moving more quickly to even lower price expectations.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

is the list price scaring you away

When people go out to shop for a home the first thing they see is the list price of the home they'd like to buy. And usually the list price either causes them to think hard about making an offer or it scares them away. And it seems that many buyers are still being scared away by list prices here in the Tucson Foothills.

In yesterdays post, an outsiders perspective on the Tucson Foothills market I quoted an article by Daniel Jaffe who said, "Tucson seems to be a real estate market that is divided into two basic camps. Camp one includes the sellers and realtors who have come to terms with the reality of today's bad market and are asking realistic prices and therefore selling houses. Camp two includes the sellers and realtors who are using comps of yesteryear's boom, and expecting parity in today's buyer's market".

I liked what he had to say and thought there was some truth to it.
So I thought I'd do a little experiment and see if the data supported that point of view.
Because the list price is what a home buyer sees first and decides to either move forward or move on, I pulled up the average list price of those homes that have sold in the last 30 days, and the average list price of those homes that are still for sale, to see if there's a difference.
In both cases I only looked at homes priced up to $1,000,000. Because above $1,000,000 there are 142 homes for sale and that would skew the data badly.

Here's what I found,
In Camp one, with the agents and sellers who have come to terms with today's bad market and are therefore selling homes, the average list price was $534,027, for the homes that have sold.

In Camp two are those homes which are still for sale, and of which some are presumably overpriced.
In this Camp the average list price is $580,450.
That's 8.7% higher than those in Camp one.

At $900,000, a Camp two house jumps to $978,300.
Would that scare you away?

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

an outsiders perspective on the Tucson Foothills market

I came across an article in American Chronicle, an online magazine, written by Daniel Jaffe, an attorney who's planning to move to the Tucson Foothills. Mr. Jaffe writes of his experience searching for a home here and gives us his unvarnished take on the Tucson Foothills real estate market. It's a genuine and constructive perspective from a home buyer who's ready to buy.

"Tucson seems to be a real estate market that is divided into two basic camps. Camp one includes the sellers and realtors who have come to terms with the reality of today's bad market and are asking realistic prices and therefore selling houses. Camp two includes the sellers and realtors who are using comps of yesteryear's boom, and expecting parity in today's buyer's market".

Read the article here>
Tucson Real Estate Market - A Layman's Adventures

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Why Now!

Today a very beautiful and very expensive home sold in the Tucson Foothills. A home that had been on the market for 2048 days, that is, since November of 2002.

It was listed for $2,775,000 and sold today for $2,600,000, or $489/sq. ft., after 2048 days. I showed this home almost three years ago, and it was gorgeous, gorgeous-gorgeous. And I couldn't understand why it hadn't sold, but felt certain that if my buyers didn't buy it, which they didn't, that it would sell very soon.
And I didn't think it was over-priced. On the contrary, I felt that it had it all, primo location, stunning yet low-key design, and beautiful, timeless materials. Expensive, and worth it. It was my top pick.

But it didn't sell, until now, which is perhaps the most unlikely and unexpected time for such a sale in the last five years. And it's been on the market for all of those 5 years.  So why now, and not two or three years ago.

For months I've written about the very high inventory levels at the $1,000,000++ end of the market, 24 months of inventory and more. But more recently, in just the last two weeks, I've also written about the sudden and unexpected spike in activity at that same high-end. And I attributed it to the fact that there are some good deals to be made. Because of the high inventory and slower sales, some sellers were cutting to the bottom line in order to unload now.

But this house didn't fall into the make a killer deal category, no one made a killer deal here. I'm just not sure what to chalk this sale up to. After all this time there's got to be more to it than just 'the right buyer finally came along'. I just don't know what it is.

In any case, congratulations to those sellers, for the sale, and their patience and resolve. And to the buyers of one of the few houses that I've really and hopelessly lusted after. It's gone, so I can finally stop thinking that maybe, somehow...

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Paloma Ridge, next to La Paloma

As I was scanning through the Tucson MLS this morning to check out the latest new listings, price reductions, etc. in the Foothills market,
I noticed that one home had a price increase.
And a pretty substantial one at that, $529,315 to $575,763.

The price increase is for one of the new AF Sterling homes at Paloma Ridge next to La Paloma. I thought that was interesting, given the current market conditions, and I vaguely recalled that the few Paloma Ridge homes that have turned up SOLD in the MLS recently, had SOLD for a rather steep discount from the list price.

So I checked it out, and sure enough the last two that sold, were listed for $638,445 & $632,750, and SOLD for, $560,480 & $561,200,
or $181/sq ft. & $187/sq. ft. Note, these two are much larger homes, at 3000 or more sq ft.

The one with the price increase is just 2277 sq ft., but the price increase would make it $252/sq ft. 

AF Sterling has only listed a few of these homes in the MLS.
Relying instead, it seems, on walk-in traffic, that location is about as visible as you can get - or past clients - Sterling has a well-deserved sterling reputation, ha-ha, for the bulk of their business. So it's hard to tell how many have sold and how much they've sold for.
Maybe they're selling like hot-cakes all of a sudden. What else would justify increasing the price that much in the current environment?

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

two more bite the dust

Last week in is it deal time for high-end homes in the Tucson Foothills I wrote about the recent spike in activity at the high end of the market here in the Tucson Foothills. 12 homes just recently under contract and 4 sold at $1,000,000+. Unusual for this time of year I said, and attributed it to a feeling amongst buyers that there are good deals to be made at the high-end, and explained why that's so.

Since then two more $1,000,000+ homes have gone under contract in just the last two days. And both of these are new spec homes that have been on the market for quite a while, one priced at $1,195,000, the other at $1,645,000.

So the spike in activity at the high-end continues, and while I don't think it's the tipping point, I don't think it's just some odd fluke either. I think it's fairly simple. There are some good opportunities out there and some people recognize it and are ready to take advantage of it.

If you're ready to make a deal on a high-end home, check out
is it deal time for high-end homes in the Tucson Foothills
and call me and I'll help you identify where the deals are and make
it happen.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

condo prices in the Tucson Foothills, then and now

There are a lot more condos in the Tucson Foothills these days than there were just a few years ago. And these days they're selling for just about what they were selling for a few years ago too.

That's because condos in the Tucson Foothills have been
over-developed and over-speculated. In a very short time we went from a real shortage of condos in the Foothills to a very hefty supply.
And while hundreds and hundreds of those new condos have been sold, and most of the over-supply has now been absorbed, prices for condos got hit pretty hard to make that happen. 

I was showing condos this week to some out-of-town buyers and pulled up the sales data on a few different condo developments to give them an idea of what's been happening with sales and prices over the years. And with condos it's really easy to compare sales and prices because condos are so similar to each other - the ultimate cookie-cutter property - particularly within the same development.

I'm going to use Canyonview@Ventana condos as an example because it converted to condo back in 2003, well before the most recent conversion craze, and because of that it allows us to look at sales over a longer time period. So here's what's happened to sales and prices at Canyonview condos over the past five years.

Jan - June 2008, 8 sold for an average sale price of $169,000, or, $185/sq. ft. 

Jan - June 2007, 11 sold for an average sale price of $210,227, or,  $192/sq. ft.

Jan - June 2006, 14 sold for an average sale price of $250,786, or, $234/sq. ft.

Jan - June 2005, 17 sold for an average sale price of $194,588, or, $188/sq. ft.

Jan - June 2004, 24 sold for an average sale price of $150,133, or, $154/sq. ft. 

So right now prices at Canyonview are somewhere between where they were in 2004 and 2005, and sales are slower today than back then. Some of this may have to do with the overall fallout of real estate in general, but the real culprit is the hundreds of new condos that came on-line from mid 2005 through mid 2006 creating an absurd over-supply.

And in the most recent conversion, Skyline Villas, located right behind La Encantada, there's a big difference between just last years prices
(avg sale price $203,886 or $216/sq ft.) & this years
(avg sale price $165,455 or $179/sq. ft.) A big difference.
Skyline Villas has just now sold out, and it sold very quickly given the eroding market conditions, and competition from a slew of other condos for sale across the Foothills. But they did it by cutting prices until all the units sold, undercutting the competition.
Unfortunately, those who bought last year are likely in for a long wait before prices rebound.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

A hedge against price declines

Without going into all the details of how it might work, just play make believe for a moment and consider this.

What if you could buy a home today, and know that if prices were down one year from now, that you'd be covered for a decline of up to 5%.

Let's say you buy a home for $500,000 today, July 17, 2008, and the AVERAGE SOLD PRICE INDEX as measured in your area is $550,000.
And one year from now when the SOLD PRICE INDEX is again computed, it's at $520,000. That's a 5.4% drop.
But instead of taking that entire loss, you now get 5% of your $500,000 purchase price or $25,000 back. And if prices fell just 2%, you'd get 2% back. And if prices went up rather than down, you wouldn't get anything.
Would getting up to 5% back if prices fell, make you more willing to go ahead and buy a home today?

Fear of declining prices is a major source of buyers reluctance to buy a home today. But if this could be worked out - and it's a big if with more than a few hurdles - do you think this type of price protection would get you and other home buyers off the fence.

I know it seems far-fetched, and maybe it is, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on this.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

How do you search for a home

With lots of PR and advertising money behind them, and plenty of
gee-whiz media coverage, the big national real estate web sites (Trulia, Zillow, Cyberhomes, etc) have advanced the notion that they are the best places to search for a home, no matter where you're looking.

So as this wave of hoopla has been building over the last couple of years I've occasionally gone to one of these sites to do a home search and see what all the brouhaha is about. And I've always ended up walking away wondering, "what's all the brouhaha about".
And I've always concluded that a consumer would be much better off using a local MLS based internet search in the area where they're looking for a home.

My searches on these sites have always been for homes in the Tucson Foothills, the area where I work and am familiar with, so that there would be no guessing about the results. And though the results always seemed pretty wide of of the mark, I'd never actually compared the results of these searches, from one site to another, and to what's listed for sale in the MLS.
So today I thought I'd try it again, and be a little more, but not too scientific about it.

First I went into the Tucson MLS and set up a search for single family homes, both new constructions and re-sale, in the 85718 zip, priced between $750,000 to $850,000. That's it. I kept it simple so as to not risk confusing some secret algorithm or magic formula that fuels the big sites. Then I entered that same criteria on my web site, thefoothillstoday.com, and on Trulia, Zillow, & Cyberhomes.

From the MLS I got 41 homes for sale

From my web site I got 41 homes for sale

From Trulia I got 33 homes for sale

From Zillow I got 14 homes for sale

From Cyberhomes I got 67 homes for sale

Who's to know.
So again I'm wondering, what's all the brouhaha about.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

pulse of the market in the Tucson Foothills, 7/15/08

Here's a quick snapshot of what's happening right now in the Tucson Foothills real estate market.

The following data is for activity during the past 14 days for single family homes.

1. 566 homes for sale in the foothills today priced from
    $205,000 to $6,000,000

2. 17 Sold, priced from $181,000 to $1,475,000

3. 23 have gone under contract priced from $285,000 to $1,549,000

4. 64 price reductions, from $205,000 to $2,779,000

5. 52 new listings, 39 of those are actually NEW listings,
    the remaining 13 are homes that were previously listed,
    then withdrawn or expired, and then re-listed.

6. For homes priced $0 to $999,999, there are 419 for sale, and at
    the current rate of sales there is 8.9 months of inventory.
   
    For homes priced $1,000,000 and UP there are 147 for sale, and
    24.5 months of inventory, based on current sales.
    6 months of inventory is considered normal.

    It's a long, hot, and thankfully, wet summer. Enjoy it!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Skyline Bel Air, in the Tucson Foothills

This morning I saw a new listing come on the MLS in Skyline Bel Air Estates for $695,000, and it was described as having been
totally remodeled.
It got me thinking about this community, which I must admit,
I haven't thought about in a while. Back in 2004 when many of the homes in Skyline CC (just north of Skyline Bel Air) started to be torn down and re-built or extensively renovated, I expected, and quietly predicted, the same would soon happen in Skyline Bel Air.
But by and large it didn't.

And that surprised me. Because of Bel Air's good Foothills location, proximity to Skyline CC, and with housing of similar vintage to the CC, renovation ready 60's and 70's homes, but more modest and
(a lot) less expensive than the CC, it seemed a natural for renovation, investment and revival. 

In case you're not familiar with it, Skyline Bel Air is north of Sunrise on Swan and it abuts the southern edge of Skyline Country Club.
So it's a terrific Foothills location, high up yet convenient to everything. It's an established neighborhood, the homes are on acre lots with mature desert vegetation, and many have good mountain &/or city views. 

And as I mentioned, prices in Skyline Bel Air are modest for the Foothills, given it's desirable location, District 16 schools, views,etc.
The average sale price for the 11 homes sold in the last 6 months is $485,243, the median $500,000, or $206.86/sf. 

But apparently, while I've been ignoring it, there has been some investment going on recently in Skyline Bel Air. Of the 12 homes currently listed for sale, two of them are new spec homes, listed for $849K and $899K. And quite a few of the others, listed from $379,000 to $775,000, are advertised as having been renovated or remodeled.
And one of the homes that sold recently was built in 2006.

And it's worth noting that at the present rate of sales, Skyline Bel Air has about what's considered to be a normal 6 months of inventory.

So maybe now is finally the time for Skyline Bel Air. Let's see.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

open house today

Come visit me today at my open house at 5470 N Camino Real.

It's new construction, to be completed within the next 45 days,
5500 sf, 5 bedrooms 4.5 baths, masonry built, $2,200,000.
Extraordinary construction and finishes.

I hope to see you there.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

.

talk about pussyfooting around

I was just in the MLS reviewing the latest housing action in the Tucson Foothills, seeing all the new listings, homes gone under contract, price reductions, etc, when one of the homes listed under price reductions caught my eye.
PRICE REDUCED - $2,780,000 to $2,779,999. Who's kidding who.
A $1.00 price reduction. $1.00.  These teeny-weeny price reductions, this one's the teeny-weeniest I've ever seen, are an annoying
(and ill-fated) ploy by a few agents to keep their listings in your face. Do you wonder why this house has been on the market for 162 days, and counting.

Meanwhile, in the 'priced to sell is the new black' department, another home that was well-priced from the start, at $1,495,000, went under contract in just 9 days. No price reductions, no pussyfooting around, just priced to sell ...

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

priced to sell is the new black

It's new. It's in. It's where we're going, rather than where we've been.

Long gone are the days of gloating over or holding out for ever higher home prices. It's become damn near unpatriotic, akin to buying a new Hummer. Priced to sell is where it's at. Lets look ahead and move ahead, not back. First come the early adopters, and as they succeed others follow. We're somewhere between those two stages here in the Tucson Foothills.

The most recent example of the new black is a big house that got listed just today in the Tucson Foothills for $1,150,000. It's over 5900 sf, and that makes it $194/sf, and right away that sounds like a pretty good deal. And the house is on more the 2.5 acres in the old Catalina Foothills. Sounds even better. And it's had a good deal of renovations, kitchen, baths, etc. And it's quite striking.

But before today's new listing it had been on the market for a long time (more than a year) listed by another agent who'd apparently agreed to list it for the fantasy price of $1,859,000.
Of course it didn't sell, even after numerous price reductions.
And in March they finally threw in the towel at $1,449,000 and pulled it off the market. Grumpy and frustrated I'm sure.

So now more than a year has passed as this house has lolled around on the market, meanwhile everywhere you look conditions have worsened and the prevailing mood is low.  But it's not that things have worsened that much, it's just that this house was way overpriced to begin with, in any market. It's own worst enemy.
So now after reality has finally set in, and with a big whack at the price, it's now really priced to sell, finally.

This house is listed by Robin Kaiserman of Long Realty, an early adopter.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

sold, and sold again

Instead of looking at averages, average sold prices, average $/sf, and all the other averages, I thought it would be interesting to just look at a handful of homes that have sold, and then sold again in the Tucson Foothills.
Kind of a mini case study of each home along with it's appreciation or depreciation, and anything else that seems noteworthy.

Wanting to see how homes that have sold just recently have fared in this market vs a few years ago, I pulled up homes that have sold in the Tucson Foothills since May 1st of this year, and from that group I picked those that have also had a previous sale in the last few years. With one exception I stuck to newer homes, so that upgrades, renovations, etc would not be a factor in the ups and downs of pricing.

Here's what I came up with;

1. 6365 N Ventana View Pl, built 2000, 2396 sf, located at
    The Ridge at Ventana Canyon
    Sold - February 2007 for $701,500
    Sold again - May 2008 for $705,000
Either these folks had a change of heart or something happened that made them want to sell again so soon. Who knows. In any case it was a costly change. They're probably out of pocket $40K+ with commissions, closing costs, etc, and lucky at that, in my opinion.
I should mention that for the second go round the house was listed in January 08 for $759,000, then reduced and reduced again. But unless they got a really good deal back in February of 07 (which I don't think they did) what would lead anyone to believe they could sell it one year later, after much deterioration in mortgages & real estate, for $54,000 more than they paid for it. They were ignoring the marketplace. Back in January the market was stronger than in any of the months that followed, and priced right from the beginning, they'd have probably gotten more than they did. But who knew, hindsight's always so crystal clear.

2. 1231 E Condesa Tercera, built 1972, 3330 sf, located in
    Catalina Foothills Estates 7      
    Sold - July 2004 for $525,000
    Sold again - June 2008 for $725,000
That's +38% in 4 years, including any slip in prices over the last 18 months, and it sold in 3 1/2 months with just one quick price reduction, $779K to $749K. Realistic pricing pays off. This is the one older home that I've included, and I'm pretty sure there was no major work done after the 2004 sale, just normal cosmetic stuff, painting, etc. This one also had two other sales, back in May 99 it sold for $359K, and in January 1993 for $240K.

3. 7040 N Camino Sin Vacas, built 2003, 3360 sf, located in 
    Montanas Ests
    Sold - June 2004 for $635,000
    Sold again - June 2008 for $855,000
The sale price is up 34% in exactly 4 years. Listed at $875,000, this home sold in just 6 days, for 97.7% of list. I'll bet that was a nice surprise. I know it would've surprised the heck out of me.

4. 5121 N Soledad Primera, built 2004, 4052 sf, located in
    Catalina Foothills Estates 7
    Sold - December 2004 for $800,000
    Sold again - May 2008 for $875,000
Three and a half years and they just about covered their nut, and they struggled getting this one sold. It was on the market for a year and during that time had a few good-sized price reductions - $1,185,000, to $1,085,000, to $995,000 to $895,000, and ended up selling for $875 or $215.94 sf, which is pretty low for a newer house on a nice private lot in a good established Foothills neighborhood.
Plus it had one of the largest guest houses around, 2 bedrooms/2 baths, with a good size living room and a full kitchen, all connected to the main house by a flagstone-paved covered patio. So comfy, your guests might stay forever. In the main house on the negative side,  the size of the rooms seemed off. The living room felt too small, and there was no family room, and no dining room. And the kitchen was huge and served as kitchen & dining, & you name it. But it worked for someone.

5. 4840 N Hacienda del Sol, built 2002, 3237 sf, located in
    La Puerta on Hacienda del Sol
    Sold - December 2004 for $780,000
    Sold again - May 2008 for $987,000
Up 26.5% in 3 1/2 years. This was one of those range priced listings where it says, ' seller will accept or counter offers between $999,000 and $1,049,000'
Yeah well, it sold for $987K, so the seller accepted less than the stated range, but no surprise there, it happens all the time.
And they were very close.
For more on range pricing see range priced homes in the Tucson Foothills
But it sold in a quick 81 days, and if it weren't for it's one negative,
it wouldn't surprise me, because it's a very good looking house. Very. The negative, in my opinion,(and it's a negative that can't be fixed), is that it sits close to - maybe 60 to 80 ft - Hacienda del Sol Rd. Being close to the road has always made for a tougher sale, but in the current environment, with lots to choose from, it's become tougher yet.

If you'd like to see the MLS listings, along with the pictures, etc, for each of these homes click HERE  (this link will expire on 8/10/08, unless I remember to renew it, which I probably won't. If it does expire and you'd like to see the listings, send me an email and I'll renew it)

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

is it deal time for high-end homes in the Tucson Foothills

In yesterday's post more on best of the best, in the Tucson Foothills
I noted that there are currently 12 homes under contract priced at $1,000,000 +, and 4 that have sold at $1,000,000+ in the last 30 days. That's 16 homes priced at $1,000,000+ that are either gone or going in just the last 30 days or so. And while it's not a gold-rush,
it is quite a bit of high-end activity for this time of year.
It's summer, and fewer $1,000,000 + homes sell when it's 102 in the shade. And with the turmoil in financial & stock markets, it's even more surprising. So why is this happening right now.

I don't know and can't say what's motivating all of the $1,000,000+ home buyers that are in the market right now.
But for those that I've consulted with recently, and based on conversations I've had with other agents representing high-end buyers, there's a feeling amongst these buyers that this may be the time to jump into the high-end market, because there appear to be some good opportunities that won't come this way again soon.

Here's why this segment of the market has the most opportunity right now. This is the segment that has had the most speculative building, virtually the only speculative building in the Tucson Foothills. And also has had the slowest sales and the highest inventory relative to sales. Months of inventory is very high at the high-end - 25 months of inventory at $1,000,000 & UP, 35 months of inventory at $1,250,000 & UP, and 30 months at $1,500,000 & UP, etc. And many of these homes have been on the market for a long time, and during that time have had multiple price reductions. And this situation has been exacerbated further by the higher cost and more rigorous qualifications required for jumbo loans, a key ingredient for the sale of high-end homes.

Currently there are 146 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills priced at $1,000,000 & UP. That's down from about 170 a couple of months ago - 13 have sold and 12 are under contract. 
But not all the homes for sale in this price range are going to offer an opportunity for a terrific deal, because not all of these owners are super motivated to sell. Some are, others aren't.

I'd start with the most obvious category.
$1,000,000 + homes that have been built since 2006 and are vacant. New spec homes - there are 30 of them currently for sale in the Foothills. Planning and construction of these homes began three or four years ago when everything was selling. Now they're not, and many of them have been on the market for 6 months, a year, and more.

It's no surprise, but it's worth noting, that high-end home construction has come to a halt in the Tucson Foothills, and between the iffy market conditions and the lack of build-able land, I don't expect to see much, if any, new spec construction here for a long time. So as these homes sell, the choices will dwindle.

There are other homes for sale beyond the new spec homes that may offer an opportunity for a terrific deal, but they don't fall into any broad or easily identifiable category. You've got to hunt and peck for them amongst the remaining 116 homes for sale at $1,000,000+.

And I can't publish a list of houses that I have reason to believe are vulnerable to deep discounts, because that's not right, and, I'd get sued too, or some other ugly thing would happen. But if you're in that market, now may be the time. Call me and I'll help you identify where the deals are.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

more on best of the best, in the Tucson Foothills

Yesterday I talked about how home buyers expectations are very high, and their willingness to compromise is very low. And we looked at the 75 homes that have just recently gone under contract and are in escrow in Tucson Foothills. Those are the homes that buyers are choosing to buy right now, and presumably, they're the best of the best, because these days home buyers want it all.

As a follow up to that, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the homes that have made it through escrow and the inspection period and have actually SOLD in the last 30 days in the Tucson Foothills.
A best of the best that have SOLD, and see if there are any glaring differences between them and those that just went under contract.
 
These SOLD transactions were initiated approximately 20 to 60 days ago, so they don't reflect with quite the same immediacy what buyers are thinking and choosing to buy at this moment.
But it's not ancient history either.

48 homes have SOLD in the last 30 days-
The 48 SOLD from $181,000 to $1,335,000
(the $181,000 sale was lender owned, and listed for $315,900, Ouch!. Worse yet, is that the former owner (before the lender took it over) paid $380K for this house in early 2006.

21 SOLD for $500,000 or less
23 SOLD for $500,001 to $999,999
4 SOLD for $1,000,000 or more

The average list price was $609,951,
The average SOLD price is $569,493, the median is $537,500
The SOLD average $/sq.ft is $199.49
The high SOLD $/sq.ft. is $304.11/sq.ft.
and low is $95.77/sq.ft. (from the lender owned $181,000 fire sale)

The SOLD homes are also located in dozens of different subdivisions throughout the Tucson Foothills;
Flecha Caida Ranch Est 2, Sabino Mountain, Catalina Foothills Est 7, Sunrise Presidio East, Encanto Canyon, Skyline Bel Air Est, Shadow Hills, Fairfields River Estates, Catalina Foothills Est 2, Alta Vista, Villages 2&4 At Villages Of La Paloma, Sunrise Mtn View Est, Canyon View Est, and more.

40 were built in 1999 or earlier
8 were built in 2000 or later
10 are in gated communities
38 are not

30 are under 3000sf
18 are 3000sf or more

The average DOM is 68
The highest DOM is 539
The lowest is 2 days on market

3 were listed as short sales, REO, bank owned or foreclosure.

Here's a link to the listings for the 48 SOLD homes
(this link will expire on 8/7/08, unless I remember to renew it, which I probably won't. If it does expire and you'd like to see the listings, send me an email and I'll renew it)
As you go through them you'll see all the pertinent information, including the list price, sold price, sf, SOLD $/sf, etc.

Looking at the numbers, the most glaring difference between those under contract (from yesterdays post) and those SOLD is the difference between the average list price of those currently under contract ($755,979) & and the average list price of those that have just SOLD, $609,951. A 23.9% difference.

The reason for this is that in the under contract category there are 12 homes priced at $1,000,000 +, while in the SOLD category there are just 4 homes that have sold at $1,000,000 +.
Those 12 million$+ homes are driving up the average list price.
And if all or even most of them close, they'll drive up the average SOLD price too.
But given the continuing turmoil in the financial markets, and the stock market, and everything else, it seems counterintuitive that the high-end would suddenly be selling at a (much) quicker clip.

I've got an idea or two on why this is, but  I need to think about it a bit before I blurt it out. Meanwhile, I welcome your thoughts and theories on why the spike in high-end sales.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the best of the best are selling right now, in the Tucson Foothills

It's a given that home buyers are being very picky about the homes they buy these days.
They're not giving a second thought to homes that are not
well-priced, that are not well-located, and that are not in excellent condition. Home buyers today want it all.  Their expectations are very high, and their willingness to compromise is very low.
They're choosing to make offers and pursue only those homes that meet all their expectations, and are the best of the best.
And forget about the rest. 

Right now there are 75 single family homes under contract and in escrow in the Tucson Foothills. That means that in just the last few weeks, 75 home buyers have found a home they would like to buy, made an offer, and after some negotiation, were able to reach agreement on the price and terms for the sale of those 75 homes, with the 75 sellers of those homes.
That's would seem to be no small feat given buyers expectations these days.

So what is it about these 75 homes, that are presumably the best of the best, and meet the expectations of 75 buyers, and make them so willing to step up and buy right now.

Is there a pattern or some common denominator here, some thread that runs through these 75 homes that we can latch onto to explain why 75 home buyers chose them over the others.
Let's see.

The 75 homes range in price from $274,900 to $2,890,000
31 homes are priced at $500,000 or less
32 are priced from $500,001 to $999,999
12 are priced at $1,000,000 or more

The average list price is $755,979, the median is $556,950
The average $/sq.ft. is $228.08/sq.ft.
The high-end $/sq.ft. is $580.07/sq.ft.
and $99.92/sq.ft. is the low end

They're located in dozens of different subdivisions throughout the Tucson Foothills; Shadow Hills, Ventana Canyon CC, Villages of Ventana, Skyline Country Club, Sin Vacas, Bellas Catalinas, Sabino Mountain, Cimarron Foothills Est, Sunrise Territory Village, Bonita Ridge, Alta Vista, The Canyons, Catalina Foothills Est, and many more, including Pima Canyon, which, with 4 homes in escrow is the winner of the most popular subdivision category for the moment. 
But still, no pattern.

58 were built in 1999 or earlier
17 were built in 2000 or later
20 are in gated communities
55 are not

44 are under 3000 sf
31 are 3000 sf or more

The average DOM is 76
The highest DOM is a whopping 2048
The lowest is 2 days on market.

10 are listed as short sale, REO, bank owned or foreclosure.

I don't see a pattern. Do you?

Here's a link to the listings of the 75 homes UNDER CONTRACT
(this link will expire on 8/6/08, unless I remember to renew it, which I probably won't. If it does expire and you'd like to see the listings, send me an email and I'll renew it)

Take a look, and please write in and let us know if you can find a pattern, a link, something that makes these 75 homes more attractive than the other 558 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills today.

Please note, it's likely that up to 30% of these homes won't close escrow. During the inspection period some buyers will simply change their minds and decide that it's not the home of their dreams after all.
Others will discover issues with the house during the inspection period that will cause them to cancel the contract. And for others, their financing will either fall through completely, or only be available at less favorable terms than they anticipated.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

it's half-time for home sales in the Tucson Foothills

With the first half of the year behind us, and a solid six months of home sales under our belts we can now get a clear picture of where we are with both sales and prices for homes in the Tucson Foothills, vs. last year.
These figures are for single family homes sold through the Tucson Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service.  

Price Range	Jan - June 07     # SOLD	Jan - June 08    # SOLD	+/-%
$0 - $250K	5	7	+40%
250 -$500K	128	127	-.78%
500 -$750K	119	92	-22%
750 -$1.0m	47	43	-8.5%
1.0 -$1.5m	34	20	-41%
1.5 -$2.0m	15	7	-53%
$2.0 & UP	8	6	-25%
Total Sold	356	302	-15%
	2007	2008
Avg List $	$738,277	$685,073	-7.2%
Avg Sold $	$705,430	$644,948	-8.5%
Median List	$579,700	$554,500	-4.3%
Median Sold	$550,978	$535,000	-2.8%
$$ Value of Homes Sold	$251,132,934	$194,774,381	-22%

Since the beginning of this year we've seen a slow, steady decline in both the number of homes sold and in the average and median sold prices vs the same period last year.

For January & February, sales were down 10% vs last year, but the average and median sold prices were in solid positive territory,
UP +16% and +1.2% respectively.

A month later, for January thru March, sales were down -11.5%, and the average and median sold prices, while still positive, were less so, UP +5% & +.23% respectively.

By the end of April, sales were down 11.7%, and average and median sold prices first dipped into negative territory, at -2.7% and -.92% respectively.

In this latest period, sales are down -15%, and the average sold price is now down a solid -8.5%, with the median down -2.8%.
Those are the average sales numbers for the Tucson Foothills as of June 30, 2008.

But these averages are just that, averages. And the % of plus or minus in both sales and prices will vary depending on your price range, type of home, location within the Foothills, and other factors.
See my earlier post prices are up, prices are down for an example of how the averages vary by price range. And look at inventory levels vs recent sales for your price range, for an indication of where that segment of the market may be headed in the near future.

And please, if you hear media reports that sales are down in Phoenix, Vegas or Tucson by XX%, those numbers are for Phoenix, Vegas or the greater Tucson metro area. They're not for the Tucson Foothills.

Have a great 4th of July!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

beware of comcast, part 2

In an earlier post beware of Comcast I railed on about the poor TV reception we were getting from Comcast. It got so bad that we didn't want to sit down and watch TV for fear that it would end in frustration, because the picture continually froze, or disappeared completely. On off on off, all evening long.
During the month of June I called Comcast at least 10 times trying to get someone to fix the &^&%^& service.
One of the Comcast customer service reps that I spoke with, on the 4th or 7th call, offered that he had lived in 4 or 5 different houses, all with Comcast service, and had never had a problem. Huh, imagine that. If I didn't know better, I'd have thought he was accusing me of making this all up. Do you think. Despite that, they sent 4 different tech service guys here, 4 different times to fix the problem. And all of them were very nice, and seemed concerned, and did their best to solve the problem.

Nevertheless, after the first three tries, we were still having the same crappy service. But then the fourth guy finally got it.
Thank goodness.
This was beginning to feel like one of those hobbies that you take up, and are now committed to, and now really dread.
Comcast, my new hobby.
It took about three weeks, but everything's fine now.
And there was no great technical hurdle for Comcast to leap either. The fourth service guy simply replaced the cable from the main box outside our house to the TV's inside our house. That was it. Presto!

What an ordeal. 3rd world tv service, and then you've got to hang around and wait for the tech guys to show up each time.
4 different times. 'someone will be there between 2 and 4'

So I was very surprised when the Comcast bill arrived for June, and they hadn't deducted a penny. Not a cent.

I was curious, and I had to get Comcast's thinking on this.
So I gave them a call and spoke with Crystal, and explained the entire situation. And to add insult to injury, Crystal, who is a supervisor at Comcast, offered to deduct the princely sum of $27.00 from our bill. She explained that since I had called Comcast 10 times in June, they would pro rate my bill and deduct the appropriate amount, $2.70, for each time I called. Do you believe that. I suggested that Crystal keep the 27 bucks.

If they're going to be that miserly, it might at least make a bit of sense to look at the number of days from the first time I called about the problem, to the day that the problem was finally solved, and then compute their $2.70/day based on that number of days. Which was probably 23 to 25 days. Whatever!

I'm sure the Comcast people aren't ignorant, they just don't give a damn. They don't have to. They're a monopoly in the markets they're supposed to serve. (When I refer to Comcast, I refer to the corporation, and the corporate mentality that's been cultivated- that just maybe has something to do with their being a monopoly- and not to the individual employees, including Crystal)
Comcast is the only choice where I live, and that's true for most consumers. And that stinks, just like their attitude.
Beware of Comcast.

Update
Very soon after posting this rant about Comcast, I was contacted by a Comcast representative, and she agreed that Comcast had not handled this well, nor deducted enough from my bill, given the problems I've had.  Comcast then deducted a suitable amount, and all ended amicably.
The money was not the issue for me. Comcast's attitude was.
And while I do not intend for this blog to be my personal bully pulpit,
I felt that the issues that I've experienced with Comcast deserved to be heard, because so many of us here in the Foothills are Comcast customers. Like it or not. 

9 ways to look at $/sq.ft. in the Tucson Foothills

In yesterdays post 9 fast facts for Tucson Foothills homes, I noted that the average $/sq.ft. cost for the 291 homes sold in the Foothills this year was $220.91/sq.ft. And a reader commented that "it would be interesting to know more about recent actual selling prices per square foot, ..."

OK, lets's do more $/sq.ft.
The $/sq.ft. costs below are for homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
from 1/1/08 - 6/29/08, and the same period in 2007 where applicable.

I came up with 9 ways...

By Price Range;

Price Range	2007	2008
$0 - $500K	$199.77/sq ft	$179.05/sq ft
$500K - $1.0m	$238.78	$233.57
$1.0 - $1.5m	$304.79	$286.95
$1.5 - $2.0m	$342.40	$397.52
$2.0 - UP	$417.77	$418.53

By Gated/Golf course communities;
- Homes sold in La Paloma, Skyline CC and Ventana CC -
   2007 = $276.60/sq.ft.,   2008 = $279.82/sq.ft.

By Gated or Non-Gated communities;
- Gated communities = $262.53/sq.ft.
  Non-Gated communities  = $200.49/sq.ft.

By size;
-  0 to 3000 sf = $202.10/sq.ft.
   3001 sf & up = $260.96/sq.ft.

By Year built;
- built 1999 or before = $208.24/sq.ft.
  built 2000 or after   = $259.45/sq.ft.

By levels;
- One story homes = $225.85/sq.ft.
  Two story or more = $200.60/sq.ft.

By construction method;
- Frame Stucco built homes = $221.45/sq.ft.
   Masonry built homes        = $235.07/sq.ft.

By School District;
- District 16 homes = $227.01/sq.ft.
- non-District 16    = $212.06/sq.ft.

By Pool or no Pool;
- Homes with a pool = $237.76/sq.ft.
                 No pool = $201.98/sq.ft.

**this data is for single family homes only - no town homes, no condos - sold in the Tucson Foothills Jan 1 - June 29, 07 & 08. All data was gathered from the Tucson Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes