There are a lot more condos in the Tucson Foothills these days than there were just a few years ago. And these days they're selling for just about what they were selling for a few years ago too.
That's because condos in the Tucson Foothills have been
over-developed and over-speculated. In a very short time we went from a real shortage of condos in the Foothills to a very hefty supply.
And while hundreds and hundreds of those new condos have been sold, and most of the over-supply has now been absorbed, prices for condos got hit pretty hard to make that happen.
I was showing condos this week to some out-of-town buyers and pulled up the sales data on a few different condo developments to give them an idea of what's been happening with sales and prices over the years. And with condos it's really easy to compare sales and prices because condos are so similar to each other - the ultimate cookie-cutter property - particularly within the same development.
I'm going to use Canyonview@Ventana condos as an example because it converted to condo back in 2003, well before the most recent conversion craze, and because of that it allows us to look at sales over a longer time period. So here's what's happened to sales and prices at Canyonview condos over the past five years.
Jan - June 2008, 8 sold for an average sale price of $169,000, or, $185/sq. ft.
Jan - June 2007, 11 sold for an average sale price of $210,227, or, $192/sq. ft.
Jan - June 2006, 14 sold for an average sale price of $250,786, or, $234/sq. ft.
Jan - June 2005, 17 sold for an average sale price of $194,588, or, $188/sq. ft.
Jan - June 2004, 24 sold for an average sale price of $150,133, or, $154/sq. ft.
So right now prices at Canyonview are somewhere between where they were in 2004 and 2005, and sales are slower today than back then. Some of this may have to do with the overall fallout of real estate in general, but the real culprit is the hundreds of new condos that came on-line from mid 2005 through mid 2006 creating an absurd over-supply.
And in the most recent conversion, Skyline Villas, located right behind La Encantada, there's a big difference between just last years prices
(avg sale price $203,886 or $216/sq ft.) & this years
(avg sale price $165,455 or $179/sq. ft.) A big difference.
Skyline Villas has just now sold out, and it sold very quickly given the eroding market conditions, and competition from a slew of other condos for sale across the Foothills. But they did it by cutting prices until all the units sold, undercutting the competition.
Unfortunately, those who bought last year are likely in for a long wait before prices rebound.
see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes
