Instead of wondering how the market's doing, or having to rely on the latest gossip or media blurbs, here are the numbers - the facts - on how it's doing. First, the number of single family homes Sold by price range, then, the average and median Sold prices - for January through August 2008, compared to Jan/Aug 2007.
For the Tucson Foothills.
Price Range | Jan - Aug 07 | Jan - Aug 08 | +/-% |
$0 - $250K | 7 | 13 | +85% |
250 -$500K | 178 | 167 | -6% |
500 -$750K | 153 | 113 | -26% |
750 -$1.0m | 60 | 54 | -10% |
1.0 -$1.5m | 42 | 29 | -31% |
1.5 -$2.0m | 16 | 9 | -44% |
$2.0 & UP | 9 | 7 | -22% |
Total Sold | 465 | 392 | -15.7 |
Avg List $ | $711,026 | $680,962 | -4.2% |
Avg Sold $ | $680,104 | $640,655 | -5.8% |
Median List | $569,000 | $549,900 | -3.4% |
Median Sold | $545,000 | $525,000 | -3.7% |
$$ Value of Homes Sold | $316,248,230 | $251,136,592 | -20% |
Since the beginning of this year, average and median sold prices have crept downward, month after month in the Tucson Foothills.
And then in last months report I noted that the rate of decline had slowed, for the first time this year.
Now another first. For the Jan - August period, those prices are now holding steady, or to split hairs, have even improved the slightest bit from last month. So two months of price improvement, however small, is very encouraging. But sales are still slower than last year, and we still have a relatively large inventory, though it too appears to be slowly shrinking, so we'll see. And now that summer is officially over, we'll start shifting gears, I hope, into what is usually a much busier time of year for sales.
If you've been sitting on the sidelines, while I don't think you need to jump right into the fray, I'd watch the market closely for signs of further improvement. And just as important, I'd watch mortgage rates for signs of further increases.
Also,
The gap in average sale prices between last year and this year has narrowed considerably since the July market report.
( -8% in July vs -5.8% now)
But this has more to do with the mortgage mess that hit last August and the sudden drop in sales and sold prices that resulted from that - than with any real improvement this year.
So until now, in comparing this year with last year, we've been in an apples and oranges situation. Comparing this years market- which is still seriously hampered by the constraints of the mortgage mess- to last years market, which had not as yet experienced that fallout, until August.
For the July numbers, Jan - July homes sales in the Tucson Foothills
I look forward to your questions and comments.
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