The Catalina Foothills

the envelope please

There may be a few stragglers and I'll fine-tune this in a few days, but meanwhile here are the top line numbers for Tucson Foothills home sales for this year.

525 single family homes sold
Average sold price - $617,030
Median sold price - $520,000
$$ value of all homes sold - $323,941,000
Average cumulative days on the market - 146

vs 2007

618 single family homes sold
Average sold price - $676,411
Median sold price - $540,000
$$ value of all homes sold - $418,022,023
Average cumulative days on the market - 118

So, the number of homes sold is down 15%, the average sold price is down 8.8%, the median sold price is down 3.7%, and the dollar value of homes sold is down 22.5%, vs last year.

Considering all that's gone on, that doesn't seem too bad, to me.

But let's look forward to better times ahead.

Happy New Year!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

how do we stack up

By now you've probably read/heard or seen the report about home prices in Phoenix dropping more during October than in any other city in the nation.

Just in case you haven't, here it is from our own AZ Daily Star via Bloomberg News,  Phoenix leads U.S. home price decline as lenders unload houses
Phoenix, the desert city that three years ago led the U.S. in home price growth, had the nation's worst housing market during October as sales of foreclosed properties depressed prices.

It goes on to say that for October the cost of a single-family home  in Phoenix plunged 33 percent from a year earlier. 33%!

And for Tucson the cost of a single family home in November dropped from $212,000 to $178,000, or 16%. (why they didn't stick with October I don't know)

OK, whatever. In the Foothills the median price in October 08 was $570,000, vs $531,000 for October 07 - an increase of 7.5%. Yes +7.5%. But hold the applause.

Because in November 07 the median price in the Foothills was $485,000, vs $407,5000 in November 08 - a 16% drop. What does December hold in store I wonder.

Still, aren't you glad you're not trying to sell in Phoenix.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

where's the value

this little house way up in the Foothills,

which the listing describes as, " Absolutely Amazing Views! You can't beat the location of this home in the Catalina Foothills Estates nestled in the Catalina Mountains with views of the entire city and all of the mountains surrounding Tucson"

JUST SOLD for list price ($365,000) in 8 days,

And I can see why. The house is just 2000sf, 2 bedrooms/2 baths, but the lot is worth more than $365,000. Homes in that area, and they don't all have these wide open views, are listed up to $1,500,000 and have sold recently up to $975,000.

Great lots are very hard to find in the Foothills. And because there's a home on them like this one, and I know of a couple more, they're listed as homes, rather than lots for sale. But in many cases, because the homes are very old and outdated, they make a lot more sense as a lot, than as a home.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

short sales and REO's, are they selling for a big discount off the list price.

Not from what I can see. Since October 1st I find 12 short sale or REO homes that have sold in the Tucson Foothills. And they sold for an average of 96.17% of list price, and they sold relatively quickly too, in an average of 61 days on market (DOM)

There's a rumor out there that short sales and REO's sell for deep discounts off the list price, and it's not so. Well, not with this batch anyway. And only a few of these homes had a price reduction or two prior to finding that magic number that buyers jumped at.

here are the details,
-address/list price/sold price/DOM
-4255 N Camino Arco/$234,900/$237,000/26

-7802 E Sabino Hollow Ct/$260,000/$245,000/124

-3650 N Four Winds Dr/$259,000/$250,000/56

-274 E Cedarvale Rd/$286,900/$286,900/23

-640 E Deone Ln/$329,000/$330,000/114

-3900 E Ina Rd/$380,000/$370,000/90

-5000 E Calle De Las Chacras/$389,000/$375,900/41

-2050 E Cerrada Nopal/$445,000/$455,000/14

-4540 N Flecha Dr/$550,000/$550,000/102

-5601 E Rio Verde Vista Dr/$650,000/$575,000/98

-4421 N Camino Sumo/$795,000/$700,000/22

-5535 N Calle La Cima/$785,000/$783,500/24

Now it's also true that many of these homes were listed for sale with no takers, prior to going into short sale or foreclosure. And in every case they were listed for more money, some for a lot more money.
Some for so much money that it was almost guaranteed they wouldn't sell.

Take 5601 E Rio Verde Vista Dr/$650,000/$575,000/98, for example.
It sold for $650,000 in March 2005, then sold again a year and a half later (8/06) for $1,125,000 (huh) - and it went back on the market yet again, a year after that (7/07) for $1,350,000. But by then things were as different as night and day, and they should have listed it for $225k less than they paid, not $225k more. Because of that little slip-up it didn't sell and was eventually foreclosed, and then listed for $650,000 and sold for $575,000, or $123/sf, yow! such a deal.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Tucson Foothills short sales & REO's

You'll find them in Foothills Clusters, Finisterra, Skyline CC Est, Alta Vista, Catalina Foothills Est 9, Catalina Foothills Est, Sabino Foothills Est, Encanto Canyon, Ridge 4 at La Paloma, Cimarron Foothills Est, Pima Canyon, Catalina Foothills Est 7, Cobo Catalina Hills and else where throughout the Tucson Foothills.

They're priced from $255,900 to $1,498,000, and from 1603 sq.ft. to 6500 sq.ft. There are new one's and old one's and everything in between. And some look like a real deal, and they're clean as a whistle and neat as a pin, and others are definitely not. So just like the normal, non-distressed Foothills market, short sales and REO's don't fit into any neat profile.

But unlike the normal market, when negotiating for a REO or short sale, you are likely buying a home that is being sold - AS-IS, NO WARRANTIES, NO CLUE, NO SPDS - and often the utilities are turned off, and won't be turned on, and I'm clueless as to how to do a proper inspection without water, gas and electric. So as a buyer you have a heightened responsibility to tread very carefully in doing your due diligence prior to making a commitment.

I found 25 short sale and REO properties listed in the Tucson MLS. See them here> Foothills short sale & REO's
**this link will expire on 1/27/09, and will reflect the changing status of the listings

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

have you heard this one before

Realty agents say next six months are a special window of opportunity.

How about this one, "Right now is probably the best time we have had for buyers, as far as the convergence of prices, interest rates and the number of properties to choose from," said Martin Eggers, an agent with Desert Roadrunner Realty.

Or, "Everybody wants to wait for the bottom," Strobeck said. "We are not going to know the bottom until it passes. We are looking right now at prices that are the lowest they've been in virtually four or five years, and we have interest rates that have been as low as they have been in that period of time."

Be that as it may, I think Russell Long from Long Realty hit the nail on the head;
To Russell Long, vice president of Long Realty Co., the next six months are crucial to Tucson's real estate market. If things don't pick up during winter and spring, it could be a very long, hot summer for real estate in Tucson. "Over the next six months, the local buyers are here," he said. "When they go on vacation, that impacts the market."

And as for spec homes;
"There is a plethora of builder properties out there, and those guys are doing deals and are very motivated to get rid of their inventory to pay off construction loans to end their debt service," Long said.

All of this from an article in our own AZ Daily Star Business Section>
Got cash? It might be time to buy a home

And for some market data to help make it really clear why the winter/spring season is so crucial to the Foothills real estate market, see > taking stock &
the Foothills luxury market, where do we go from here 

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

there oughta be a law

If you haven't already had up to here with reading about the sleazy business practices of lenders, the NYTimes has a piece on WaMu that ought to take you over the edge.

By Saying Yes, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans

trulia says

that the average listing price for a home in the Foothills (85718) listed during the week ending December 17th was $871,364.

85718, Tucson Homes For Sale

But trulia didn't mention what the average sold price was during that same week, so of course I looked it up - it was $537,944.

And this got me wondering if there were similar disparities between listing and sold prices for other weekly periods. So I looked that up too.

9/1-9/7, 13 listed for an average of $623,431
              4 sold for an average of $482,338

10/1-10/7, 21 listed for an average of $1,047,324
                 5 sold for an average of $787,780

11/1-11/7, 15 listed for an average of $859,893
                 8 sold for an average of $369,363

12/1-12/7, 25 listed for an average of $863,920
                 7 sold for an average of $320,2866

See a pattern here.

 **my figures are for single family homes in all the north Foothills, including 85718 & a portion of 85750 & 85704

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

taking stock

With the year almost over it's time to take stock and see what's been selling and what's been sitting on the shelf gathering dust. 

Today there are 555 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills priced from $185,000 to $6,450,000.  And during the past 3 months 107 homes have sold, leaving us with about 15.5 months of inventory as we close out the year. (555 ÷ 107 = 5.18 X 3 = 15.5 months of inventory) 6 months is considered normal inventory.

But looking at inventory and sold's by price range tells a different and somewhat uglier story.

$0 - $500,000
174 for sale/57 sold = 9 months inventory

$500,001 - $1,000,000
238 for sale/45 sold = 16 months inventory

$1,000,001 - $1,500,000
70 for sale/2 sold = 105 months inventory

$1,500,001 - $2,000,000
37 for sale/2 sold = 56 months inventory

$2,000,001 & Up
36 for sale/1 sold = 108 months inventory

Though still moving slowly, the lower half of the market is at least moving, and looks positively vibrant compared to the upper half, and with interest rates for conforming loans at all-time lows, the lower half is poised to perk-up more yet.

But with the financial markets and the entire luxury goods industry -from cars to jewelry to private jets, to you name it - in a tail-spin, who is going to buy all these expensive homes in the Tucson Foothills - where a large percentage of the high-end market is made up of discretionary buyers - second home, third home and retirement home buyers, none of whom need to buy.

And while I think many home sellers are holding out for a miracle to happen during our winter selling season that starts in a couple of weeks, if sales don't pick up noticeably, I think the showdown may be over, and many sellers will be at the point where they either just need to, or have just had it, and will be looking to pack up and move on.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

in the Villages of Ventana

This one popped up this morning as a new listing in the Villages of Ventana, and caught my eye because it looks so great, and it's in what I think of as one of the best kid/family friendly, affordable communities in the Foothills.

 
It's at 7562 E Camino Amistoso, listed for $529,000

 
and at 2950 sf it's the largest model in the Villages. The listing indicates lots of remodeling and upgrades, and though it's built in 98 it looks new, doesn't it. 

The Villages are located between Kolb Rd & Sabino Canyon Rd, just south of Sunrise. Homes for sale now are available for somewhere between the low $300's to the mid $500's.

And currently homes in the Villages are selling for about what they sold for in 2005.

July -Dec 2005-average sale price = $430,222/median = $420,000
July -Dec 2006-average sale price = $452,400/median = $491,000
July -Dec 2008-average sale price = $408,333/median = $430,000

Currently there are 11 for sale in the Villages of Ventana,

see them all here> Villages of Ventana
**this link will auto update, adding new listings & dropping those that leave the market.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the real thing

They're few and far between. This one's a magnificent Spanish Colonial, built like a fortress, but through the eyes of an artist.
It's new, and it's the best I've seen in the Foothills.
Gorgeous mud adobe construction, hand plastered walls, concrete floors, 17' beamed and corbeled ceilings, pool, fountains, ramada

4100 sf, 3 bedrooms/3.5 baths.

 

2 story, with just the master suite upstairs, and it's enormous and wonderful with an incredible patio running the length of the house
  

for $1,295,000
Here's the listing> 4372 N Camino Del Rey

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

fa-la-la-la

This being the Holidays, I thought it would be the right time to put aside the dreary news and concentrate on the bright spots in the Foothills real estate market. And really, there are some, enough with the gloom and doom already.

So the good news is that homes are still selling, even in this market, and even more surprising and better yet, is that some of them are selling very quickly.

Since October 15th (by which time the financial collapse should have sunk in with everyone) 87 homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills.

And 33 of them sold in 60 days or less , 19 of them in under 30 days. 
19 went for under $500K, 11 for $500k to $999K, and 3 at $1.0 and up. And they sold for an average of 95.3% of list price.
See them here> Sold in 60 days or less **link will expire on 1/21/09

So 38% of the homes that sold, sold in under 60 days, even in this market. la-la-la-la-la

The remaining 54 took just a little longer,

9 sold in 61 - 90 days at 93.3% of list price
8 sold in 91 - 120 days at 93.6% of list price
37 sold in 121+ days at 92.5% of list price

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

follow up on, another short sale

The house in Skyline Bel Air that I wrote about yesterday, I went to see it today.

It appears to be in perfect condition, completely renovated, and with very nice fixtures, finishes, appliances, etc. And it's spotless.
No broken windows, holes in walls or ripped out toilets that are often the downside of the short sale/foreclosure scene.
If I didn't know otherwise, I'd have thought it was brand new.

And I agree with Kelly who wrote in, "Will be a great deal for someone"  

5112  E Camino Alisa,  Tucson, AZ  85718

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the end is near

As the year winds down people are still out there dickering over prices, listing, buying and selling homes. Here's what's been accomplished in the last 7 days.

New Listings - 14, priced from $319,000 to $2,495,000 -
11 are actually new listings, the remaining 3 are old listings that have been re-listed.

Price Reductions - 25, on homes now priced from $199,000 to $1,200,000

Under Contract - 8 homes priced from $308,900 to $1,275,000 have found buyers and sellers who've agreed on price and terms,
**3 are priced at a million +

Sold - 14 homes priced from $320,000 to $825,000

Expired/Withdrawn - the listings of 24 homes either Expired or were Withdrawn, priced from $350,000 to $2,495,000. 

And to help get a handle on what's selling & what's not, price-wise, here are the average & median prices for the homes in the categories listed above;

New Listings - $772,427/$594,900
Price Reductions - $600,392/$547,450
Under Contract - $672,593/$606,250
Sold - $528,857/$532,000
Expired - $$980,050/$757,500
Withdrawn - $787,592/$725,000

And once again the Expired/Withdrawn category has the distinction of having the priciest homes.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

oy, another short sale

This one just went short this afternoon listed for $599,000.

The listing says " Wonderful family home in Skyline Bel Air, two master suites, just like new construction. Originally listed at $995,000 with appraisal of $975,000 in 06, over $300,000 price reduction. Must sell now! Bring all offers! This is a steal! Broker/owner "

Though I haven't seen it in person, from what I can see, and at $168/sf in Skyline Belair on an .80 acre lot, it might be a steal.
It looks as if they've done a major renovation

 

The particulars- 3558 sf, 4 bedrooms/3.5 baths, 2 story, 3 car garage. The listing also says " This house was completely redone in 07, effective yr built by pima county of 95. All new mechanical, plumbing, electric, pool re-plastered and new equipment."

I'd say it's definitely worth a look.
Here's the listing > 5112  E Camino Alisa,  Tucson, AZ  85718
*the listing link will expire on 2/26/08 

And call me, I'd like to see it too.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

popular choices for second home buyers

Some of the most popular choices for second home buyers in the Tucson Foothills lie within our three gated golf course communities.

La Paloma, Ventana Country Club and to a lesser extent Skyline CC, offer a variety of homes that are particularly well suited to the many second home buyers who venture this way come winter.
The attraction of these communities is the convenience of location, services, amenities and the security they offer. Most have community pools and spas that are heated throughout the year. Club facilities, walking trails and the golf course are right at your back door, restaurants and shopping are a stone's throw, and all are 24 hour guard-gated for security and privacy. The homes are low maintenance on smaller lots, and street-side landscape maintenance is usually included in the HOA fee.

They range in size from about 1500 to 3000 sf, though I've found that most people's needs fall somewhere in the 2000 to 2500 sf range.
At that size they usually have 3 bedrooms, or 2 and a den, 2-3 baths, and kitchen, living and dining areas combined into an open great room. Out back there's usually a covered patio and a nice easy care yard for dining, daydreaming and catching a few rays. And by far, the scarcest and most popular are those with views of the golf course and mountains, which of course means they sell the quickest and for more money.

As a rule, these 2nd home homes range in price from about $350,000 to $850,000.

But here's the tricky part if you're searching for them online.
Within the communities of La Paloma, Ventana and Skyline there are a number of different subdivisions where the homes are located, each with it's own subdivision name, HOA, CC&R's, etc.

So if you search La Paloma as a subdivision, you may not find the homes located in - Ridge 4, Vista Serena, Paloma Ridge, Villages 2&4 At Villages Of La Paloma, Paloma Del Sol, etc, etc, - all of which are subdivisions within La Paloma. Same applies to Ventana and Skyline. What to do?

Ta-Da. I have a search page on my web site Search by Subdivision

There you'll find a link to a one-click search for Ventana, La Paloma or Skyline, and many other communities and subdivisions within the Foothills, that will return everything, at all prices, currently for sale within each of those communities or subdivisions, or whatever you want to call them. And yes for simplicity on my web site, I cheated a little bit by calling them all subdivisions, rather than indicating this one's a community, and this one's a subdivision, and this one's a ...

Or, click here> popular choices for second home buyers for a quick peek at what is currently for sale in all three. But try the link above for a better presentation and more information on each listing. And when the search results page comes up, click the
drop-down menu in the upper right corner and select, Price Lo to High, so you won't have to scroll through all the multi-million $ listings.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

now available as a REO for $606,250

I remember looking at this one for myself when it was for sale in 2006.
If you like the east side of the Foothills near Sabino Canyon, this is a very private location snug up against the Coronado National Forest. That's what intrigued me, though the house didn't. But apparently someone liked it because it sold in 5 days for $730,000, listed at $735,000.

A year later it went back on the market for $850,000 and sold in 44 days, for $850,000. That was July of 07. Batting a 1000, I'd say.

Now this is queer, but 2 days after that sale they put it right back on the market, for $850,000. And after 180 days and no takers, they tried renting it. Still no takers. What happened.

Now it's a REO and can be yours for $606,250, or less. 

See it here> 6000 N Via Tres Patos, Tucson AZ 85750
You may find that the pictures in the current listing leave quite a bit to the imagination. But if it sounds good to you, I think it's probably worth a look. The two pictures above are from the 06 listing.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the Foothills luxury market, where do we go from here

It wasn't so long ago that it looked as if the Foothills were becoming a community of mostly high-end homes. After years of chugging along at 20 to 30 sales per year, in 2004 luxury home sales swung into high gear.

Pima Canyon had a lot to do with it. With almost 300 home sites in a new luxury gated community, and a big PR blitz, it popularized the notion and broadened the appeal of luxury living in the Tucson Foothills. And this was just in time for the wave of well-off baby boomers starting to look for their place in the sun.

And pretty soon everyone who could swing a hammer got into the act, and so-called luxury homes started popping up wherever one could be squeezed in.

 

And of course it got out of hand, and along with poor timing, the mortgage meltdown, the economic crisis, and denial that the party would ever end, the million $ market is now limping along with lots of inventory and few sales. 

Where do we go from here. Are people going to give up on finding their place in the sun, stop looking for a spot to retire or buy a second home. The mood of the moment notwithstanding, will they lose their taste for luxury or the easy southwest lifestyle that the Foothills affords them.

We'll see. January is right around the corner, and it'll be the first test, because that's the beginning of the high season for home sales in the Foothills, particularly luxury sales. And because there's a lot at stake, I'm sure that every Realtor® and every home seller is waiting on pins and needles to see how this one shakes out. I know I am.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

not much real estate action today

Just one little new listing, one price reduction, and nothing under contract. Blame it on the weather, I do.  

   Sunny Tucson
Today      Wed        Thur

           
59°|45°   61°|40°   52°|31°

Unless you're from Minnesota, this is no one's idea of
fun in the sun.

more reader comments

and more fun with numbers too

A reader wrote in;

' Just out of curiosity I looked at listing quartiles. 
Interestingly enough, about 25% of the listings are $460k or less which was higher than I thought. The next 25% are in the 461-645k range (lot of houses for sale in a relatively narrow price range), the next 25% takes you up to just under $1.0 mil. Then we have about 25% about $1.0 mil and up. So the middle market is roughly $$460-$999k.  That corresponds pretty closely to the "traditional" breaks of 0-$500k, $500k-$1.0 mil, and over $1.0 mil as low, middle, and upper.
Not surprisingly, given the median sale price you reported, the majority of selling prices have been below $460K.'

OK, let's take that a step further and look at those listing quartiles, and see how many homes are for sale and how many have sold in each quartile during the last 60 days. Here's what we find;

0 - $460k = 135 for sale/ 34 sold

$461k - $645k = 138 for sale/ 14 sold

$646k - 999k = 145 for sale/ 16 sold

$1.0 - Up = 147 for sale/ 4 sold

So each quartile represents about 25% of the listed homes, yet-
50% of those sales were at $460k or below
20% between $461k - $645k
23% between $646k - $999k
and just under 6% at $1.0 & up  

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

2 weeks - 72 price cuts, are we there yet

In just the last 14 days 72 homes in the Foothills, or about 12.5% of the total listed, have had price reductions. And to give you an idea of just how much, or little, prices are being reduced, below is a list of the 25 homes priced $650,000 & UP (the top half of the market) -showing both the old and new price.
And **HERE, is an MLS report showing all 72 price-reduced homes, but with only the new price, because for some reason, the MLS does not offer a publishable report that shows both old and new prices.
So I had to generate the list manually, and I guess 25 is my limit. **the link will expire on 12/13/08

4420 N Alvernon Way - 699,000 - 650,000

7055 E Foothills View Ct - 699,200 - 659,000

5722 E Placita La Gracias - 729,000 - 669,000

3741 E Calle Del Cacto - 698,000 - 675,000

4735 N Camino Antonio - 750,000 - 675,000

4332 E Cerrada Del Cazador - 699,000 - 675,000

5963 N Golden Eagle Dr - 710,000 - 695,000

5860 N Genematas Dr - 749,000 - 695,000

545 E Agave Dr - 749,000 - 699,000

5950 N Moccasin Tr - 749,000 - 699,900

1040 E Calle Mariposa - 725,000 - 699,975

6230 N Camino Esquina - 739,000 - 719,000

4848 N Avenida de Castilla - 795,000 - 739,000

7402 N Mountain Shadows Dr - 799,000 - 765,000

5360 N Ventana Overlook Pl - 879,000 - 849,000

2355 E Miraval Primero - 889,720 - 850,000

6590 N Regal Manor Dr - 950,000 - 899,000

7110 N Mercer Spring Pl - 939,000 - 900,000

6831 N Skyway Dr - 1,400,000 - 1,375,000

4911 N Camino Antonio - 1,475,000 - 1,375,000

3179 E Corte De Andalucia - 1,495,000 - 1,395,000

5136 N Calle Ladero - 1,685,000 - 1,485,000

6825 N Calle Mechero - 1,745,000 - 1,625,000

6201 N Whaleback Pl - 1,850,000 - 1,750,000

6755 N Hole In The Wall Way - 2,890,000 - 2,750,000

OK, 72 price reductions overall, and the median price of all homes listed for sale is $650,000 - so 1/2 are listed below $650,000 and 1/2 at $650,000 and up. So about 282 homes listed for sale below and above the $650k mark.

Yet there were almost 2X as many price reductions below $650,000 than above it. 47 below $650k vs 25 above. And this, despite the fact that at $650k & up, sales are much slower than at $650k and below. 

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

sales above the median

A reader wrote in;

' Here is an observation you might find interesting. The most recent closing above the median listing price (about $650K) was on 11/26 at a price of $685K, $240/sf.  Ie; nothing has closed above the median listing since 11/26.  If you go back a week, there are some; but still that is close to three weeks.'

So going back a full 30 days from today, to 11/16, here's what has sold in the Tucson Foothills. Sold in the Foothills **this link will expire on 12/13/08

And still there are just two other sales that have closed above the median list price of $650k, one for $730,000, the other for $865,000.

The details - 21 homes sold,
average sold price = $423,733/median sold price = $330,000
Average $/sf = $180, lowest sale = $240,000/Highest = $865,000
% sale price/list price was 94.82%

Admittedly, this is probably the slowest time of year for home sales.
So just to compare, let's take a stroll down memory lane and see what sold last year and the year before.

2007 (same 30 day period) = 37 homes sold
average sold price = $630,596/median sold price =  $535,000
Average $/sf = $218, lowest sale = $170,000/Highest = $2,225,000
% sale price/list price was 95.16%
14 sold above $650k, 4 of those above a million

2006 (same 30 day period) = 54 homes sold
average sold price = $705,843/median sold price = $577,500
Average $/sf = $245, lowest sale = $310,000/Highest = $2,400,000
% sale price/list price was 97.41%
20 homes sold above $650k, 7 of those above a million

To put it nicely, sales at the high-end, even the mid to high-end are stalled. And from the median list price of $650,000 and UP, there are 289 single family homes for sale in the Foothills.

Ho Ho hum

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'tis the season

or yet one more reason

that price cuts are up and expired's too

oh and lots of new listings, but the solds are few 

and prices do seem a bit out of whack

with lower priced homes getting first crack

as sellers do wait, worry and fret

the year's almost over and no sale yet

a motivated seller

Yesterday a new listing came on the market in Alta Vista, and right off the bat it's priced $90,000 below what it sold for in 2006.

It sold for $940,000 in June 06, and listed yesterday for $850,000-
unfortunately, as a short sale. I haven't seen it, so I'm not sure if it's a real deal just because it's $850,000, but it's sure a better place to start than most do.

See it here> 6760 N Placita Acebo, Tucson, AZ  85750   

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after a long dry spell

Sixty, seventy years later and there's still a lot of interest in the homes that Josias Joesler built in the Tucson Foothills. But for those who want one, there have been very few Joesler's available recently.

Now finally, along comes a Joesler that was built in 1950, toward the end of his career (he died in 1956), and is also notable because of it's location in the central Foothills, as opposed to Joesler's usual stomping grounds off Campbell Ave in the Old Foothills.

It's Spanish, 4121 sf, 4 bedrooms/4.5 baths, mud adobe, of course, with wine room & horse facilities, clay tile roof, on 3.5 acres, for $1,495,000.  And unmistakably, a superb Joesler.

See it here> 4320 N Alvernon Way, Tucson, AZ  85718
UPDATE-12/29/08, The property has been temporarily Withdrawn
from active listing status. Therefore the link will show the listing as Withdrawn. I expect that it will be back on the market soon.

**In 1998 it sold in 6 days, and sold again in 2004 in 2 days.

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the continuing saga on Campbell Ave

What was once an estate on almost 7 acres in the old Foothills has since become a hub of short sale and lender owned activity.
Planned and built during go-go years this little enclave off Campbell Avenue now has three of the five properties in either short sale or for sale by the lender, REO.

The top most X is the original house built on almost 7 acres in 1973, well before La Encantada and the surrounding galleries and restaurants caused traffic on Campbell to swell. It sold in 2003 (for $1,325,000)and the buyer split it up into five lots. And that house is now, and has been for some time, lender owned and available for $729,900.
The other two X's are homes built in 04 & 06 as spec homes on the split-off lots, and they're in short sale, and have been for quite some time too. After numerous price reductions they're now priced at $999,000 & $560,000. 

The blue dots •, I don't envy them. Those are two homes that were also built on the split-off lots. Except that those homeowners live there, maintain their property, and presumably pay their mortgage, taxes, etc. But surrounded by distressed properties, I'm afraid they're in for a very long haul.

The three distressed properties are;
5775 N Campbell Ave - 6242 sf, built 1973, 5 bedrooms/6 baths, $729,900, or $115/sf. Cheap! REO

5771 N Campbell Ave - 3904 sf, built 2006, 4 bedrooms/3.5 baths
$999,000, or $256/sf, not cheap at all, given the condition it's in.
Short sale. 

5759 N Campbell Ave - 2760 sf, built 2004, 4 bedrooms/3.5 baths
$560,000, or $203/sf, not cheap either, Short sale.

And who's going to make the first move. What buyer is going to come along and plunk down their hard earned money on one of these distressed properties while the fate of the other two is yet to be decided. Would you.

Now if you could make an incredibly good deal for all three, let's say in the neighborhood of $1.3m for all three. You'd remove the stench of distress, put a few bucks in them, and turn around and sell them for below market and make a few bucks.

I've written about these homes before, HERE, and HERE
and somewhere else, but I can't find it.

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... pigs get slaughtered

In 2004 this perfectly nice house in Alta Vista sold for $655,000.

 

And I guess someone thought they could make a killing, because two years later they put it back on the market for $1,395,000. And not that I imagine they either knew or cared, or that it would have mattered if they did, but by then, June of 06, the fire had already gone out of the Foothills market. Aside from which, it was never-ever hot enough for a 113% increase in two years. Not even close. 

OK, so now 2+ years later and guess what, it's still for sale. And if you've had your eye on it, your patience has paid off, because now you can get it for what it sold for in 2004.

That's right. After four different listing agents, and countless price cuts, today it's listed for $669,000, and I can't imagine that it'd be too tough to get for $655,000, or less. 

See it here> 5722 E Placita La Gracias, Tucson AZ 85750

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spec homes, different markets, same issues

For now I think I've beaten to death the situation with spec homes here in the Tucson Foothills. So rather than re-treading old ground, and for a fresh perspective, check out Chris Fountain's take on the Greenwich, CT spec home market-  What are these builders going to do?

'Their builders paid too much for marginal building lots back in the land rush, spent too much on building and now are going to have to take a bath. I’m seeing a lot of price cuts but, so far, few deep enough to move undesired houses.'

It's very much the same as here in the Foothills, and as I said, I've beaten it to death, but if you'd like to read more Click> Foothills Spec homes

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sales

An observant reader wrote in;
Hi John,
I could have miscounted, but it looks like only 6 houses have been sold in December so far and the highest price was $316K. The upper half of the market is very slow.
Chip

No Chip you didn't miscount, 6 sales from $260,000 to $316,000, that's all she wrote.

On a somewhat brighter note, 18 homes have gone to contract since December 1st. Though the vast majority, 16, are priced under $700,000 - with the remaining two over a million - one of which is the aforementioned deal in Cobblestone listed for $1,999,999.

Yes the upper half is very slow.

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when the price is right

Recently reduced to $1,999,999, this house in Cobblestone has been on the market for 465 days, and now, today of all days, it went to contract. Why now? The economy's in the tank, the high-end is dead, it's the holiday season, and ...

Too good to pass up maybe. And the contract price is bound to be less than the list price. And that'll put it somewhere under $240/sf, for Cobblestone. And that's low for Cobblestone.

It's 8331 sf, 6 bedrooms/6 baths, concrete block construction, built 1993. The listing says completely updated and renovated, and it looks like a complete kitchen re-do, new travertine floors, and more. 

When it was first listed in August 2007 it was priced at $2,950,000, and it held there for about 6 months, then dropped a teeny bit to $2,795,000, and then finally last month they decided it was time to face the music and get it over with, and dropped it to $1,999,999. And that's all it took. 

See it here> 3333  E Cobblestone Pl, Tucson, AZ  85718

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home prices this year

Here's a look at where we've been and where we are with
average and median sold prices for homes in the Tucson Foothills
this year.

It's tempting to look at monthly average sale prices - for example, the average price for February was $741,604, and for April $565,744 - and hang your hat on those figures as a measure of where the market is. But because of the wide range of home prices in the Foothills -from the low $200's to well over $5million - and because there are (even in good times) relatively few transactions/month, monthly averages can, and often do, jump all over the place and present either an overly positive or negative picture of the market.

So looking at average prices over 4 - 6 month periods, or longer, tends to smooth out the erratic spikes & drops of average prices and offer a more reliable view of where the market really is.

Median prices on the other hand are not an average of anything.
The median is the middle number in a series of numbers.
In home sales, it's the middle price at which half the sales are above and half below. And median prices are less affected by higher high priced or lower low priced sales. 

For example, if five homes sold last month, for- $100k, 350k, $700k, $1.3m and $2.7m - the median price would be $700k. While the average price would be $1,030,000.

And if five homes also sold this month, for - $200k, $600k, $700k, $1.7m, and $3.2m, the median price would still be $700k. But the average price would be $1,280,000.

And as you can see from the chart, average and median prices don't always move in the same direction, even though they're measuring prices in the same market.    

OK you say, so what's the point already. The point is November sales. In November, both median and average prices for homes in the Foothills fell rapidly and steeply. Suggesting that both the mix of sales, low to high, strongly favored the low-end, and the average price paid for homes also favored lower prices.
Now of course it's just one month, but given that it coincided so neatly with the larger economic fallout, I think it's safe to say that, contrary to what you may have heard, the Foothills are not immune. 

For now, it looks as if high end sales, even mid to high-end sales, are in the doldrums.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

my how things change

When this house on Camino Escuela came on the market this past July, and then quickly went to contract, I jumped in with my 2 cents on why it went so quickly, even though it was very pricey. 

It was listed for $725,000, and it's just 2264 sf, so $320/sq ft, and that's up there, but here's how I explained it, charm sells in the Tucson Foothills

Well it didn't appraise for the sale price, so it fell out of escrow,
went back on the market and was soon reduced to $675,000. (about what it appraised for, I'm told)
And I thought, but didn't say, jeez $675,000, that'll be gone in a minute. Well no, it's still hanging around, and today it was reduced to $625,000, and I'm busting a gut trying not to call this a hard to find Foothills charmer and a good deal, but I think I'll just wait and see what the market thinks.
see it here> 4725 N Camino Escuela

And here's an interesting footnote to this property,
On November 16, 1998 this house sold for $337,000, and that was $2000 over the list price, and it sold in just 6 days.
Eager buyers no doubt.

Well if so they soon had a change of heart. Because they put the house back on the market before they even closed on it. Yes, on November 6, ten days before they closed, they put it back on the market for $309,924. So they were eager sellers too. And it sold again 23 days later, for $305,000 and closed escrow again on December 17, 1998.

So two months, two quick sales and $30,000+ down the drain.
anyone for Monopoly.

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weekend reading

On a subject near and dear to our hearts, second homes,

From The New York Times,
'Though the market for vacation homes is not immune from economic reality, it does not shadow the total real estate market. “While the overall housing market peaked in 2005, the market for vacation homes didn’t peak until 2006,” said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors in Washington. That doesn’t mean, though, that a recovery in the second-home market will lag behind the larger market. “A large number of our transactions are not subject to financing,” Ms. Saatchi said of second-home sales in the Hamptons, so a rebound could occur if consumer confidence rises ahead of a loosening of credit.'

Your Second Home | Buying and Selling
          Timing a Market

True, our market here in the Foothills didn't peak until late winter-spring of 06. But in my experience, the Foothills market has lagged both the up and the downsides of the total U.S. real estate market.

It peaks later, but also recovers later, particularly in relation to markets in NY, Chicago, Minneapolis, Seattle, Denver, etc, where many of our new residents migrate from. 

Because while a big piece of our market is in second homes, the other big piece is retirement homes. And most retirees need to sell their home back home, before they jump in and buy in the Foothills.  

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

these are in short supply

But I guess there's not that much demand, what else could it be, because there are very few real contemporary style homes built in the Tucson Foothills. Yet I've had a few clients who wanted one, but no luck, because there were none available at the time. Even now with our high inventory, I bet you could count all the contemporaries on one hand. And I'm not talking about southwest contemporaries, because they're not contemporaries, not by any stretch.

In any case, very few real contemporaries, so this one's worth mentioning. It's new, it's a spec home, and it's very nice, if you like contemporary. 

It's 4451 sq ft, 5 bedrooms/4.5 baths, with sharp clean lines, dramatic living spaces, lots n' lots of glass, and big wide-open mountain views,
on 1 acre. And yes, it needs some landscaping.

I tried to get my brother-in-law to buy it, but he lives on the ocean in California, so it was a pretty tough sell. But for us landlubbers, not only is it one of the few really nice contemporaries available, but the price, now $1,375,000, is attractive too. It started out last year at $1,775,000. ha-ha-ha!

 

This is one of three new homes, and the only one still available, designed and built by Don Kornberg, in this little enclave off Camino Antonio.

One sold last April for $1,715,000 (listed for $1,795,000), and it's virtually identical to this one, in size, style, amenities, etc, and another sold this past July for $1,350,000, and it too is virtually identical. So a $365,000 cut from last April.

The one that sold last April, sold before it was finished, so I never got to see the final product, but if I had my pick, I'd pick this one for the wide-open mountain views.

See it here> 4911 N Camino Antonio

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Tucson Foothills home sales thru November

The following is the year-to-date sales data for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills.
Overall, home sales (the # of units sold) are off 16% vs last year, and that's pretty much in line with what we've been seeing month after month this year. And we're also seeing very modest declines in both average and median sold prices, year-to-date vs last year.

Price Range	Jan - Nov 07     # SOLD	Jan - Nov 08    # SOLD	+/-%
$0 - $250K	9	22	+144%
250 -$500K	231	209	-9.5%
500 -$750K	190	143	-25%
750 -$1.0m	75	68	-9%
1.0 -$1.5m	54	32	-41%
1.5 -$2.0m	18	12	-33%
$2.0 & UP	11	8	-27%
Total Sold	588	494	-16%
	2007	2008
Avg List $	$709,593	$668,512	-5.8%
Avg Sold $	$676,317	$628,681	-7%
Median List	$563,450	$549,700	-2.4%
Median Sold	$540,000	$525,000	-2.8%
$$ Value of Homes Sold	$397,674,123	$310,568,500	-22%

And normally I'd leave it at that. Year-to-date we seem to be doing OK vs last year. Better, or less bad, than many other places.

But things changed big time when the markets collapsed in September, and we're now in a new post-collapse reality. And I know that that collapse has been a deeper drag on sales and prices in the Foothills than is apparent when the November numbers are buried in with 11 months worth of sales data.

So for more of an apples to apples comparison, here's last November vs this one.

Nov 2007 - 45 SOLD, avg sold=$537,674 -median sold=$485,000
Nov 2008 - 30 SOLD, avg sold=$462,527 -median sold=$407,500
33% fewer units sold this year, a 14% drop in avg prices, and a 16% drop in median prices. Aside from home prices just dropping overall, what we're also seeing in this admittedly small sample, is the drop-off in sales of high-end homes. Last November 3 homes sold for over a million, this November the highest sale was $865,000.

That's what the market looks like right now in the Tucson Foothills.

Click> for October YTD sales data

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these 3 caught my eye

First is the saga of 5771 N Campbell Ave in the Tucson Foothills.
For background see this > 5771 Campbell Ave re-re-visited.
It had been listed for $750,000 as a short sale, and turned up today under contract for $999,000. So maybe a little bidding war.
Sometimes these things are good deals, but then everyone wants in. See it here, again > 5771 Campbell Ave

Next is 7501 N Christie Dr in Cobo Catalina hills. A 3.3 acre and up community that adjoins the west side of Pima Canyon. 7501 showed up today listed for $880,000. $880,000. For that you get 6.3 acres in the Foothills, and a 6524 sq. ft. territorial built in 1971 with 4 bedrooms/3.5 baths. But who cares about the territorial, 6.3 acres that's 2 minutes from La Encantada is what it's all about. And they're not dividable. So you and your neighbors down the road apiece will always have room to roam. And aren't you glad you didn't buy it last year, when it was listed for $1,900,00. See it here > 7501 N Christie Drive

Last but not least is, 4331 N Placita Camaleon in Catalina Foothills Estates 10. Cat 10. On 3.5 acres. That's special too. You don't find 3.5 acre properties everyday in Cat 10, or anywhere in the Foothills, except of course, in Cobo. Anyway, this house sold just 10 months ago for $2,900,000. And I guess it didn't work out, because it's back on the market today for $3,125,000. Last time round it took about 280 days to find a buyer. Let's see what happens this time.
See it here >  4331 N Placita Camaleon

That's it.

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what's selling now

Let's forget about what has sold for a minute, that's yesterday's news, and instead take a look at what buyers are buying right now in the Tucson Foothills.

40 homes in the Foothills priced from $259,000 to $2,590,000 are in the first stage of being under contract. In other words with these 40 contracts, the buyers and sellers have agreed on price and terms, but there are inspection and financing contingencies in place that have yet to be resolved. And 4 of them are what's called ACTIVE CAPA - which indicates that the sale is contingent on the buyer selling their current home first.

Another 12 homes - priced from $316,000 to $1,095,000 - are in the second and final stage of being under contract, they're PENDING close of escrow, and presumably the inspection and financing issues have been resolved.

So it's likely there will be some fallout from the first group due to the contingencies yet to be met, whereas the PENDING contracts are a pretty sure thing.

So 52 total are under contract.
Here's the breakdown by price.

$0 - $500,000 = 22 under contract
Listed for an average $146/sf

$500,000 - $1,000,000 = 22 under contract
Listed for an average $234/sf

$1,000,000 - $2,590,000 = 8 under contract
Listed for an average $326/sf

See them here> Under Contract NOW
*this link will expire on 1/1/09, and will reflect the changing status of
the homes under contract as they progress thru escrow.

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lender owned on Campbell Ave in the Tucson Foothills

OK I give. This is starting to look pretty good.
It's a lender owned (REO) property on Campbell Ave and it was just reduced to $729,900. And at 6342 sq ft that's $115/sf. 

It's been on and off the market since 2003, mostly on though, and during that time the price has bounced around from a really silly high of $1,750,000 to it's current $729,900.
I think it's staged in these pictures, but it looks nice doesn't it.
Truth be told, these pictures are from an earlier listing a few years ago. And now it's vacant and a little more beat up. But think of it as, this is how it could look. And at $115/sf, you might have a few bucks left over to tootsie it up.
It's masonry construction, built in 1973, 5 bedrooms/4.5 baths on 1.2 acres. And when I was up there to see it a few weeks ago, they were putting on a new roof, courtesy of the new owner, the lender. 
See it here> 5775  N Campbell Ave,  Tucson, AZ  85718

And call me if you'd like to see it. 

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real estate prices down the road

Many Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth.
In survey after survey, people expect prices to bounce back -- in some cases, as soon as six months from now.

Some experts say it's a bad idea to count on your home rising in value at all. People should think of their own homes mainly as places to live, not as investments, advises Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Berkeley.

When asked what he would do if someone handed him $1 million today, Mr. Sommer doesn't hesitate: He would put it into real estate.

This from a a Wall Street Journal article The Future for Home Prices

What do you think. 

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is time on your side,

Not if you're trying to sell your home it's not.
In the past two months 71 homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills.
And those that sold in the first 30 days sold for 95.3% of list price, while those took 120 or more days to sell, sold for just 91.4% of list price.

Here's how it breaks down by days-on-market.

	0 - 30 days	31 - 60 days	61 - 90 days	91 - 120 days	120+ days
# homes Sold	15	14	6	6	30
% of total	21%	20%	8%	8%	42%
Avg %SP/LP	95.3	96.2	92.9	92.7	91.4

It's a pretty good bet that those sold in the first 30 -60 days were priced right to begin with, and sold from the original list price with no price reductions.
While those that took longer to sell very likely had one or more price reductions. And the %SP/LP figures are based on the latest list price, not the original. If it were based on the original list, the %'s would be even lower for those homes that took longer to sell.

So price it right, sell it fast, and make more money.

**Please note, these figures are for total or cumulative days on the market. So if a home was listed for 60 days, then withdrawn &
re-listed, and then sold in 10 days, it's counted as sold in
70 days, not 10 days.  

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home buyers are talking,

A reader of this blog who is also looking to buy a home in the Foothills, has taken a keen interest in the sales data that I pump out. So much so that he's been doing his own slicing and dicing of the data along with offering his opinions of the market. And yes, he's a buyer.

"Here is a reality check.  In the most recent 30 days, the most expensive home sold on a price/sf basis was $253, a $468k golf villa in Ventana."

"The median listing is close to $650K; there are 297 homes for sale at or above $650K.  In the past 30 days, there have been only 8 closed at or above $650K.  The upper half of the market has died.  If you drop down a bit, it doesn't get a whole lot better.  The majority of the sales (58%) has been in the bottom third of the market measured by listing price."

"... it appears to me that there are motivated buyers what is needed are motivated sellers.  Or, to put it another way, buyers will get motivated when the sellers are" 

Is anyone listening.

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active adult communities feel the pinch

The Wall Street Journal reports that the housing crunch has forced many active adult communities to consider lowering their age restrictions (generally 55 & up) in order to attract younger residents and stay afloat.

Retiree Havens Turn Younger to Combat the Housing Bust

'From Florida to Arizona, condos are sitting idle as potential buyers find themselves stuck, unable to sell their houses and relocate. Some residents are now considering the once unthinkable: letting younger people in -- a proposition that has pitted neighbor against neighbor.'

And though there's not much in the way of active adult communities in the Foothills, the Foothills are nevertheless very popular with retirees. And the predicament facing active adult communities  - condos are sitting idle as potential buyers find themselves stuck, unable to sell their houses and relocate - is to some extent the same predicament we find ourselves in here in the Foothills.

To give you an idea of what's happening in active adult in the Tucson area - A quick search of the Tucson MLS turned up 559 homes for sale (condos, town homes & single family) in active adult communities in and around Tucson. And 252 have sold in the last six months. Saddlebrooke on the northwest side and Green Valley, south of Tucson, are two of the more popular active adult areas.

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