The Catalina Foothills

they're comin' outta the woodwork

High-end homes that is. More and more high-end homes keep coming to market, in the midst of what is already a glut of high-end homes on the market, few of which are moving.

I talked about this a while ago. That we would see more homes listed for sale during January through May - which traditionally has been our hot selling season - and that we'd also (hopefully) see more buyers in the market, and therefore more demand. A happy equilibrium if ever there was one.

Though so far this year, we're only seeing one side of the equation.
We're awash in supply, but demand is piddling.

Since January 1st, 24 new listings priced from $1,000,000 to $3,995,000 have come on the market. And interesting I think, is that the 9 highest priced homes in that group are all spec homes, homes that didn't have to be and would not have been missed -priced from $2,200,000 to $3,995,000. See them all here> 24 new $1.0+ listings
**that link will expire on 3/1/09**

So now we have 152 million$+ homes listed for sale in the Foothills- priced up to $6,450,000.
And in the last 3 months just 4 have sold. And the highest priced sale in that group was $1.4mil.

So what do you think's going to happen.

Originally I titled this, THERE WILL BE BLOOD, but that seemed too pessimistic.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

dream big

Whoever built this place sure did, though it looks as if that dream's turning into a nightmare,

 

I mentioned this house just the other day when it was re-listed-  looking for bigger, more - and now it's turned up again, this time
as a short sale, all 10,529 sq ft of it.

It's easily the biggest short sale and biggest spec home in the Foothills, and now with the price reduced yet again, this time to $1,580,000, which works out to $150/sf, on a $/sf basis it's also the lowest priced spec home in the Foothills. So it's new, a spec home too, and a short sale.

All of these short sales and foreclosures are unfortunate and sad, but for some reason, this huge house sitting empty and unwanted, is particularly sad to me.

See it here> 3900 N Camino Blanco Tucson, AZ

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

I don't know what, or if, sellers of over-priced homes are thinking

HELLO, anybody home - it's tough enough trying to sell a well priced home these days, Over-priced, forget about it.

But if somehow, through some quirk, some carefree-happy-go-lucky buyer were to come along and blindly agree to pay something near the amount being asked on one of these overpriced homes, chances are they wouldn't get very far - because the lender wouldn't touch it.

Credit is squeaky tight, lending standards are super stringent, and appraisers are the new scrooge. Long gone are the days when they looked for ways to make it appraise. No more. Today they're dotting every i, crossing every t, and looking for every which way to cover their butts. And they are not looking at sales from six, eight, or nine months ago, and they don't care what your neighbors house sold for in 2006. If it doesn't appraise for today's market, they're not touching it, and you're out of luck.

So if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Get a jump on it and get an appraisal now, and then price your home accordingly, and then maybe you'll stand a chance. Maybe.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Houston, we've got a problem

We've developed a gaping gap, and it's between the median list price of the homes for sale in the Foothills, and the median sold price of those Sold in the last three months.

how gaping a gap is it;

Right now it looks like 37%
The Median List Price of the 565 homes For Sale is $639,000
The Median Sold Price of the 87 that Sold is $400,000
yep, a 37% gaping gap it is.

How can that be. Well it's not what you might think - that homes are selling at huge discounts (like 37% say) off their list price.
No, the median list price of the homes that Sold was $425,000.
So it's all about what is selling and what is not selling.

73 homes priced from $0 up to the median ($639K), have Sold.
And just 14 priced from the median and UP, have Sold.

So sales of homes listed below the median - there are 283 for sale -are doing pretty well, well relatively anyway, and homes listed above the median -there are 282 for sale - are selling at a snail's pace.

And if we go to the averages, i.e., the average list & sold prices, it's not a gap, it's an abyss.
The Average List price of all homes for sale is $919,942
The Average Sold price of the homes sold is $473,097, a 48% abyss.

We've got about four or five months for this to turn around, and if it doesn't, lookout below.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

if you've been on the fence over $50,000,

it's time to get out your checkbook. Because today they reduced the price from a very tidy $6,000,000, to a less tidy $5,950,000, on the incredible Joesler built Lee Marvin estate. Will $50,000 do it.
I kinda doubt it, and I don't think they think so either.

Agents do this little price cut thing so that the listing pops up in the MLS and on other RE web sites with a price change. And then everyone notices it again, and hopefully takes another look at it, and then maybe, who knows. It couldn't hurt, cause you can't sell it if it doesn't get noticed, and these days ...

So if they want to get noticed, and are willing to hang 50 grand on it, good samaritan that I am, I thought I'd pitch in.
Have another look.

And if you haven't noticed this listing before, it's a 7193 sq ft Joesler that was built in 1936, and owned by the late and wonderful Lee Marvin. It also has the rare distinction of being one of the very few, and maybe the only Joesler, that hasn't had all it's land split-up and sold-off to make way for yet more spec homes. It sits on 12.2 prime acres in the heart of the old Foothills.

See it here> The Marvin Residence
And to discourage gawkers, I guess, because we are a little thin on celebrities here in the Foothills, there's no address in the listing.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

keeping an eye on the mil+ market

I see that another $1.0mil+ home Sold yesterday, and that makes four sold so far this year. And since that market has been, to put it politely, in the doldrums, I thought it would be worth taking a look at what has sold this year in the $1.0mil+ market - to see, what buyers are buying, where they're buying it, and what they're paying for it.

Because with 148 homes for sale priced at a $1.0mil+, and few sales recently, this, in my opinion, is the market that's most vulnerable and bears keeping an eye on.

So here's a look at the four that have Sold since Jan 1.

- 7570 N Calle Sin Controversia, 85718
this is in Sin Vacas, a gated community in the northwest end of the Foothills. Built 1983, 5521 sf 
Listed for $1,400,000/Sold for $1,170,000 - that's 83.5% of List price, and $211.92/sf. Sold in 101 days on market, DOM

- 6410 N Nirvana Pl, 85718
this is in Alta Vista, a non-gated community in the northeast end of the Foothills. Built 2002, 4343 sf
Listed for $1,295,000/Sold for $1,175,000 - that's 91.7% of List price, and $270.55/sf. Sold in 34 DOM

- 4207 N Sabino Mountain Dr, 85750
this is on Sabino Mountain, an gated community on the east end of  the Foothills. Built 2003, 3923 sf
Listed for $1,365,000/Sold for $1,250,000 - that's 91.5% of List price,
and $318.63/sf. Sold in 63 DOM

- 4361 E La Paloma Dr, 85718
this is in Coronado Foothills Estates, a non-gated community way high-up in the Foothills. Built 1993, 3915 sf
Listed for $1,400,000/Sold for $1,400,000 - yep 100% of List price,
and $357.60/sf. Whoop-de-do! Sold in 1 DOM

So what can we glean from these four sales - they (usually) sell for pretty hefty discounts from the list price, they sold in a relatively short time, one in a staggeringly short time, they're located all over the Foothills, newer or older - age doesn't matter, gated/non-gated are each holding their own, $/sf costs are all over the lot, at $1.4m the highest priced sale is not that high priced- given the inventory, and none are spec homes, and none are short sales or foreclosures.

See them here> 4 Sold at a million +
**the link will expire on 2/28/09**

The end of the month is a popular time for closing escrow, so I expect (hope) to see a few more of these show up as Sold in the next few days, and when (if) they do, I'll update this list.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

looking for bigger, more

This might do it. It's a 10,529 sq ft new spec home that popped up today as a new listing, though it's actually a re-listing of this humongous home. 
And if you're looking for bigger yet, there are just a few that are slightly larger, but none of them spec homes

and none with an indoor full-size olympic pool, all for $1,950,000

I don't envy the listing agent having to turn on all the lights each time there's a showing. And then turn them off again.

But then again, how many showings do you get for a 10,000 sq ft house these days, outside of Beverly Hills and Greenwich, Ct.

See it here, all 10,529 sq ft of it>   3900 N Camino Blanco Tucson, AZ

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

here's a house in La Paloma that I like

- though no one else seems to

It was first listed on 3/2006 @ 975,000, then $949,000 > $899,000 > $849,000 > and SOLD on 3/2007 for $805,000 to an investor.

Who then did a 900 sq ft addition, and renovated the rest - with a new kitchen, baths, floors, interior & exterior doors, windows, lighting, outdoor kitchen, landscaping & more,

and then re-Listed on 10/07 @ $1,595,000, then $1,495,000 > $1,395,000 > $1,349,000 > $1,279,000 > and now it's $1,149,000, and there it sits

at $1,149,000

It's 4025 sq ft, 4 bedrooms + an office/den, 4.5 baths,
one level, no steps,

with a big open kitchen that's all new

and it's in La Paloma, with wonderful golf course & mountain views from the house and the yard 

OK, no doubt it was overpriced for a long time. But that was then and this is now, and now I think it's well priced. So I don't understand why it hasn't sold. Yes I like this one, and no, it's not my listing, nor that of a friend of mine. It's just a terrific house that's virtually new, on a great lot in La Paloma. What gives?

Here's the listing> 6140 N Via Presilla Tucson, AZ 85718 
**warning, the pictures in the listing are pretty drab**
the pictures up above are more like it.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

tired of that drab desert look

Step right this way,

THIS IS NOT AN ILLUSION,
it's a home for sale in the Foothills right now, and according to the listing, it's a
Totally Extravagant and Over-the-Top Rock Star Palace! One-of-a-Kind and Possibly One of THE Most Unique Properties on The Planet.
I wouldn't dare disagree with that.

and if that's not enough, it just had a major price reduction,
from $2,495,000 to $1,999,000.

 
This was listed last May, and I marveled at it then, and here it is January and it's still available.
If you'd like to see more pictures, yes there are more, lots more, and all the details, go here> 5110 E Calle Barril

$1,999,000, hmm

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

miracles do happen

A house at 4361 E La Paloma Dr, Tucson, AZ, was listed for $1,400,000 on 1/16 - 11 days ago - and went to contract the very same day, and closed escrow today for full list price.

And it wasn't a cheapie either, 3915 sf at $1.4mil, or $357.60/sf.

I'd say see it here, but there's not much to see, as the listing agent didn't even have time to get pictures in, but here's what there is>
SOLD IN A FLASH FOR FULL PRICE
**the link will expire on 2/25/09**

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

OK, here's the deal

Because there are people out there who refuse, absolutely refuse, to accept reality.  
You can never be too obvious

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

they shake their heads and pass them by

Because they stand out, it doesn't take buyers very long to figure out which homes offer good value amongst the crowd of those that don't.

And there are buyers out there. Right now I'm working with a handful of buyers in price ranges from about $600,000 up to $2,000,0000. And first among first's on their list of importance is getting good value for their money.

None of them are interested in even looking at homes that are not listed for a price that is at least within the realm of offering good value. Not-a-one.

And after all the water that's gone under the bridge, it's hard to believe but, apparently many sellers either still don't get this, or just don't care.

The homes that buyers are choosing are priced at an average of $201/sf. The homes they're passing by are priced at $253/sf.
Now that's an average of all the homes that have recently gone to contract, and all the homes that buyers are rejecting, whose listings have recently expired.

Sellers, check your comps closely, because buyers sure are, and if you don't stand way out as a good value, you don't stand a chance.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

WHACK! here it is, reality

As I've mentioned recently, two more rather long-in-the-tooth spec homes have now joined the ranks of short sale and foreclosure properties in the Foothills. And no surprise there, you could see it coming from a mile away, and unfortunately it won't be the last. Because the owner/builders of these homes refuse to face the realities of the market we're in, that is, until it reaches out and smacks them in the face.

So here's yet another updated list of short sale and foreclosure properties in the Foothills, I call it 36 and counting 
And do notice, that six of the seven highest priced homes on the list are spec homes, and the one that isn't a spec, was a spec before the last sale.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the real thing, is now a real steal

On December 22nd I wrote the post below about this wonderful new Spanish Colonial. Today it went short sale or foreclosure, it's not clear which, and the price was reduced to $895,000, from $1,295,000.
If this is your cup of tea, this is the best deal I've seen on what is also a very special Foothills home. Very special. My hunch is that at this price, they'll have a little bidding war on their hands.

From the December 22nd post,
They're few and far between. This one's a magnificent Spanish Colonial, built like a fortress, but through the eyes of an artist.
It's new, and it's the best I've seen in the Foothills.
Gorgeous mud adobe construction, hand plastered walls, concrete floors, 17' beamed and corbeled ceilings, pool, fountains, ramada

4100 sf, 3 bedrooms/3.5 baths.

 

2 story, with just the master suite upstairs, and it's enormous and wonderful with an incredible patio running the length of the house
  

for $1,295,000  $895,000 (originally $1,695,000)

Here's the listing> 4372 N Camino Del Rey

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

looking for signs of life

Now that we're past the holidays, into the new year, and into our high season for home sales, there are some signs of life out there.

To see those signs we need to look, not at the homes that have sold - because that's reflective of deals that were made in the past, 30 to 60 or more days ago - but at the homes where buyers and sellers are making deals now, and putting homes under contract.

Of that group, there are 74 single family homes under contract in the Tucson Foothills right now. And they range in price from $169,000 to $1,999,999.

13 of those under contract are listed as Active Capa.
This indicates that the sale is either contingent on the buyer selling their current home first, or it is a short sale or foreclosure that has not been given a final blessing by the lender. 9 are short sale/foreclosures. Average list price for this group is $520,054, median is $485,000.

46 are listed as Active Contingent.
This is where the buyer and seller are still in the inspection period.
Average list price here is $684,722, median is $577,500.

15 are Pending.
The inspection period is over and the sale is coasting toward close of escrow. Average list price is $691,652, median $460,000.

And of the 74, twelve are listed for between $1,099,000 & $1,999,999, a price range that has been slow-to-go up to now.

And there's no doubt, that for a variety of reasons, some of these homes under contract will not close escrow and end-up back on the market.

On the other hand, it's also likely that if a buyer walks away from a deal today, that they'll be out on the street tomorrow looking for another. 

We shall see.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

mmm-mm good

I've never really gotten the connection between Realtors® and recipe cards. You know, like why would receiving recipes from a Realtor® cause you to want to hire them to sell your house. Or is it just an icing on the cake thing, so to speak. In any case I must be missing something, because sending out recipe cards is a very popular thing for many successful Realtors®. So when I saw this good looking new recipe card courtesy of Long Realty, and featuring a recipe from EL Charro, I thought I'd better get with it and give it a try. Hey, you never know.

But instead of licking all those stamps and schlepping to the post office with hundreds of cards, which I'd never do, I'm going to take the easy way out and just post them here, where you can get at it whether you're in Tucson or Tennessee.

And it does look good, and coincidentally, I had dinner at
El Charro just the other night, though I didn't have the Albondigas.
Next time. And here's a printable pdf. file Download Albondigas
So, recipe cards, what do you think?? Yes, No. Or is it just too girly.

Enjoy!

another Foothills spec home joins the lender owned crowd

Listed for $1,050,000 this one is 4272 sf, 5 bedrooms/5 baths, built 2007 with a pool and a one bedroom guest house.

See it here> 5128  N Calle Ladero, Tucson, AZ  

The listing says "This is a Bank Owned property previously listed for $1,650,000!" Yes it was, and I'm guessing that has a lot to do with why it is where it is today.

 

And this one has the distinction of being yet another spec house built on land that was split off from a Joesler estate. The Joesler's still there, and beautiful as ever, though a bit hemmed-in now from having lost three of it's four acres. The house with the pool is the Joesler, the 050C circled in red is where the spec house now sits, and the lot to the east of that now has a newer house on it also. But apparently, in the rush to do this split, someone screwed up the measurements for the lot on the southeast corner, because I've heard that according to Pima County, it's too small to build on. Darn.

 

So now, not only do we end up with all these damn spec houses on our hands, but as R. Brooks Jeffery* has said, "Murphey's vision was not dense subdivisions. It was meant to be estates, where the relationship between the building and the desert was as important as the building itself. And I think we've lost that,"

Amen.

*R. Brooks Jeffery- the coordinator of preservation studies at the University of Arizona and author of "Joesler and Murphey - An Architectural Legacy for Tucson."

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

here, this is where it's at

Public Information

Ditto!

Zillow and their zestimates

One of my out of town clients has been using Zillow to check the value of homes that he's interested in seeing when he arrives here in the Foothills. And in his words, "this is kind of scary".

What's scary is that he's found that Zillow's values are sometimes as much as 20-30% lower, but occasionally higher, than the asking prices of homes that otherwise seem to be at least reasonably close to being reasonably priced.

And of course that concerns him. But he's also concerned that even if he were willing to pay somewhere in the neighborhood of the asking price, that the property would not appraise and therefore a bank would not give him a mortgage to purchase the home.

So hoping to shed some light on this dilemma, and not wanting to dilly-dally around with my opinion of value vs. Zillow's, I thought the best thing to do would be to look at homes that have sold recently in the Foothills, and compare those sold prices to Zillow's zestimates.

A buyer and seller agreeing on a price, and a lender willing to give a mortgage for that home at the agreed sale price - based on a boots on the ground appraisal - is as reliable a definition of market value as we have. And though they use cuter terms than market value, market value is what Zillow claims to provide.

**in their own words in the fine print Zillow offers;
A Zestimate home valuation is Zillow's estimated market value.
It is not an appraisal. Use it as a starting point to determine a home's value.

OK will do, let's see. I've pulled a list of homes that have sold recently in the Tucson Foothills along with the actual sold price vs. Zillow's zestimate for those same homes. What could be simpler.  

The following homes have all sold within the last 14 days. And I started with the highest priced sale and worked my way down, one-by-one, and did NOT (though I wanted to) select particular homes in order to make a point.

4207 N Sabino Mountain Dr Tucson, AZ 85750
Sold 1/15/09 = $1,250,000                             MiSS
Zillow's zestimate = $968,000,
with a cover their butt Value Range of $793,760 - $1,035,760
which at that, didn't quite cover it

6241 N Ventana View Pl Tucson, AZ 85750
Sold 1/19/09 = $625,000                                HiT
Zillow's zestimate = $636,500
Value Range = $528,295 - $681,055

4962 N Bonita Ridge Ave Tucson, AZ 85750
Sold on 1/8/09 = $510,000                              MiSS
Zillow's zestimate = $458,000,
Value Range = $393,880 - $490,060

8301 E Big Horn Tr Tucson, AZ 85750
Sold 1/16/09 = $445,000                             MiSS
Zillow's zestimate = $406,000
Value Range = $328,860 - $442,540

5148 N Louis River Way Tucson, AZ 85718
Sold 1/12/09 = $459,000                             MiSS
Zillow's zestimate = $501,500
Value Range = $416,245 - $551,650

5050 N Via Gelsomino Tucson,AZ 85750
Sold 1/14/09 = $425,000                      too close to call
Zillow's zestimate = $455,500
Value Range = $378,065 - $482,830

Need I go on. A lot of MiSSes and not too many HiTs.
Of course the Value Range usually has it covered, but then again, I'm pretty sure lots of people could hit that target with their eyes closed.

So the moral of the story is, if you depend on Zillow to determine the value of a home in the Tucson Foothills, do so at your own peril, because it's likely to be incorrect.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

speaking of spec homes

and I've done a lot of that today, so it seems I should just stay in that groove, publish an updated listing of the 30 spec homes currently for sale in the Tucson Foothills - and let that be that.

So here they are; Foothills Spec Homes
**this link will expire on 2/18/09**

Oh, and about five of these spec homes are also in foreclosure or short sale - though it may not be apparent, since that info is sometimes tucked into the agent-only section of the listing.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

2 more lender owned homes in the Foothills

Two new spec homes on Camino Real, designed and built by the late David Tyson, are now officially listed as bank owned.

For a while, there was a confusing on-again off-again game of bouncing back and forth between being listed as normal sales and short sales. But I've got a feeling this latest REO/lender owned designation will stick.

And the prices of both have been reduced to reflect the lenders desire to get these off the books, and the pain in the butt procedures involved in buying bank owned properties. But unlike many other bank owned or short sale homes which may have suffered abuse at the hands of their former owners, these two are in perfectly wonderful, new home condition.

See them here> Cmo Real Spec homes

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and now there's this, if you're a spec builder

Banks Foreclose on Builders With Perfect Records

From The New York Times

                                    John Collins Rudolf for The New York Times

TEMPE, Ariz. — Dave Brown, one of this city’s best-known home builders, had kept his head above water through the housing downturn, not missing a single interest payment on his loans.

So he was confounded a few months back when one of his banks, spooked by the decline in his company’s revenue, suddenly demanded millions of dollars in additional collateral to continue carrying loans on his projects.

He was unable to come up with the money, and in October, JPMorgan Chase foreclosed on five of his developments. Shortly thereafter, Brown Family Communities, 33 years in the business, decided to shut its doors.

Not only have new-home sales stagnated, but builders confront a rising wave of foreclosed properties coming to market at prices below the cost of building a new home. To move houses, they have to mark them down to less than the cost of construction.

The convergence of these problems is bringing many small and medium-size builders — who account for about 70 percent of new-home construction in the United States — to their knees.

Banks Foreclose on Builders With Perfect Records

Most of the builders building homes in the Foothills are very small, maybe one or two homes a year, mom & pop operations.
If lenders start demanding big bucks in additional collateral from these guys, it's going to add an ugly new wrinkle to what has already been a standoff in the Foothills spec home market.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the more the merrier

Or so they say, as a new spec home in Pima Canyon that came to market today will be keeping company with the 30 or so other million $+ spec homes waiting for a buyer.

But this one's not your run-of-the-mill spec. It's up at the top of the heap, with 6226 sf, for $3,995,000, or $641.66/sf, with a swim up bar. Well stocked, I hope.

See it here> 1714 E Barrell Cactus Ct

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

what's a buyer to do

A couple of months ago a home buyer and reader of this blog contacted me about a home that was for sale for $2,295,000 in the Foothills. He wanted to know what I knew about it, how long it had been on the market, etc, etc. Easy enough.

I let him know that it was listed on October 1, 2008 for $2,295,000, and so now had been on the market for 50 days.
And I also let him know that the last time it sold, it had gone to contract in June of 2006 for $1,813,000, and closed escrow a few months later. And by the way I mentioned, June 06 was within a month or two of the very peak of the market here in the Foothills. Something told me he was beginning to lose interest.

So now, amidst all the doo-doo that has hit the fan in the last two + years, and in the thick of the biggest financial market collapse in modern times, that home is priced at $2,295,000, or 26% more than it sold for at the very pointy peak of the market. And prices are down let's say 13%, conservatively, since then.
And that's not accounting for the financial market collapse, which needless to say was, and still is, having a catastrophic effect on home sales and prices, particularly at the upper end. Hello, are you still there, or is that a dial tone I'm hearing.

But ignoring that mess for the moment and just sticking with the numbers - if it sold for $1,813,000, and prices are down 13% since then, we end up with a market value price somewhere around $1,577,310. But it's listed for $2,295,000 - a 45% premium over that generous interpretation of current market value.

Yesterday I was again reminded of this house because it showed up in the MLS with a price reduction. As a result, it's now available for a mere 10% over it's peak-of-market sale price, or about 26% over current market value.

Not surprisingly, these are not the homes that are selling.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

some things just take time

A house at 6641 N Placita Arguilla, just came back on the market listed for $949,000, after a very long and unsuccessful run, where it started out at $1,989,000 in June of 06 - days of wine and roses, compared to now. So what, a 50+% price cut.

Of course there were many price cuts along the way to $949,000, and 1, 2, 3, 4 different agents.

Oh, and it's range priced now, so they'll consider offers between $949,000 & $1,150,000. Hurry.

See it here> 6641 N Placita Arguilla

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
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are we there yet

here's a look at the slippery slope of home sales in the Tucson Foothills over the past 6 years

 
Bumping up against the ceiling is 2004, closely followed by 2005,
with 988 & 980 single family homes sold each year. By 08 we were down to 529 sold, for a 46% drop in sales.

And here's the less slippery slope of home prices in the Foothills,                    

                              Average/Median

Although sales peaked in 2004/2005, prices rose strongly into 2006.
The average sale price peaked in 06 at $703,616, and by 08 was down to $616,173, for a 12.4% drop. The median for 06 was $571,000, and $520,000 in 08, a 9% drop. And by the way, the 08 numbers, and you can see it on the chart, are virtually identical to the average and median prices for 2005.

But sales dropped 46% from their peak, so many would still consider those price drops to be comparatively puny.

That is, until the last quarter of 08, when it all hit the fan.
Those numbers are smaller yet.
$534,271 average sale price, and $468,000 median.
That's a 24% drop in the average, from it's 06 peak, and an 18% drop in the median. Which leaves us somewhere between 2004 and 2005 prices for the Tucson Foothills.

On the bright side, though we've yet to do it recently, it keeps getting easier to beat last years numbers. But I think we have a real shot at it this year.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Chicago -11°, Minneapolis -15°, Omaha -2°, Greenwich 6°, Washington DC 17°, Milwaukee -4°, Cedar Rapids -19°, Montreal -13°, Cincinnati 2°, Des Moines -9°, Boston 13°

if nothing else works,

     TUCSON
74° Clear/Sunny,  

this may do the trick

a run on short sales & foreclosures

Since the start of the year, 5 short sale or foreclosure properties have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills.

And I'm not absolutely sure because I haven't kept that close an eye on this category, but this seems like a record of sorts for action in distressed properties.

But because of a variety of factors, these contracts don't always work out. And often at this early point of acceptance, the deal is usually far from iron-clad, as the lenders have yet to run it up every flag pole and through every committee for approval.

So if you're interested in one of these, you may still have time to get your offer in. And who knows what they'll sell for, but for those keeping score, the average & median list prices for the 5 are- $631,780 & $669,900, at an average of $155.66/sf. Cheap, but not dirt cheap.

Here they are> Under Contract
*the link will expire on 2/13/09*

And PS - while they're still available, see the 26 homes in the Foothills currently listed as short sales or foreclosures
*the link will expire on 2/13/09*

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

off to a fresh start

As is usual for this time of year, there's lots preparation and primping going on as home sellers and their agent's anticipate the start of a new season. So you'll see more new listings, and this year - more price reductions, and we hope, more buyers and homes going under contract and selling than at any other time of year.

But for now, here's what's happened in the first 14 days;

NEW LISTINGS - 119 
priced from $200,000 to $2,949,000.
Avg list price - $956,541
Med list price - $775,000
Avg $/sf - $262
_____________________________________________________________
PRICE REDUCTIONS - 86
priced from $189,000 to $3,200,000
Avg list price - $608,656
Med list price - $495,000
Avg $/sf - $214
_____________________________________________________________
UNDER CONTRACT - 25
priced from $321,900 to $1,485,000
Avg list price - $697,063
Med list price - $650,000
Avg $/sf - $206
____________________________________________________________
SOLD - 7
priced from $219,000 to $625,000
Avg sold price - $423,143
Med sold price - $455,000
Avg $/sf - $188
______________________________________________________________
EXPIRED - 73
priced from $315,000 to $3,995,000
Avg list price - $1,004,653
Med list price - $825,500
Avg $/sf - $269
_____________________________________________________________

Of the 119 NEW LISTINGS, I count 48 that are actually NEW listings, with the remaining 71 being old listings that've now been
re-listed for a fresh start.

A lot of price reductions, and that's a good thing, but we'll have to wait and see if they're deep enough to make a difference.

And 25 homes under contract in 14 days is not too shabby. And it's also a quick start to our busy season, which officially begins on Jan 2, but usually doesn't really kick-off until at least mid-January, and some say, until after super bowl Sunday. And it's worth noting that 5 of the homes under contract are priced above $1.0mil, a category that until now, has seen little action recently.

7 sold, what can I say, not too many deals get made in December.
And getting a fresh start in the new year is part of our culture, so the high number of expired's is routine for this time of year.

But for me, the glaring numbers are the ones that show the price difference between what's being offered for sale, and not selling, and what buyers are actually buying.

Look at the median prices of homes,
under contract = $650,000 
sold = $455,000
those are the median price points of where buyers are buying,
vs.
New listings = $775,000
Expired listings = $825,500
There's a gap there, a big one.
And take a look, the average numbers are even more glaring.

And for the homes that have had price reductions, the median list price is $495,000, while the median list price of all homes for sale in the Foothills is about $650,000. Which suggests there are a lot more price reductions happening at the lower end of the market than at the higher end - where they are sorely needed.

We're just starting off here, and it's way too early to make any calls, so let's see where we are right after Super Bowl Sunday.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

it stood out from the crowd

Last Saturday in they bit the bullet I went on a bit about this house that had just been listed for sale -

because it was a terrific house that was also very well priced.
($849,000 or $223/sf)

and I ventured, Who knows what'll happen, and this may sound far-fetched, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they received multiple offers.

Well I don't know, they may or may not have received multiple offers, but I do know they received at least one offer they liked, because they're in contract today after just 5 days on the market. 
See it here> 5983  N Sabino Shadow Ln, Tucson, AZ

lower prices do the trick

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Imagine that, lower prices = higher sales

Forbes.com has an article about 10 U.S. cities where home sales are rising and leading to market recoveries.
Where U.S. Home Sales Are Rising

Why? Because there are many motivated sellers in those cities.
As used in this article, motivated sellers are those 'in distress or foreclosure--or banks with too many homes on the books ...'
And Not MOTIVATED SELLER as it's bandied about in real estate ads,

Some excerpts;
Motivated sellers in Las Vegas accounted for 64% of sales in October, the highest rate in the country

That means buyers are getting deals and hastening Las Vegas' recovery. In fact, buyers are eating up inventory fast enough that the discounts offered by motivated sellers are tightening as supply contracts. "And there are now bidding wars taking place over homes in foreclosure."

Other cities are experiencing the same. In markets flush with motivated sellers, such as Phoenix and San Diego, transactions are up 10% and 90% respectively, as buyers are starting to compete for available deals.

While in many cities, potential homeowners are waiting to see how low prices will fall before buying, in places with highly motivated sellers, prices have dropped far and fast enough to rekindle sales.

Right now it looks as if that's where we are in the Tucson Foothills,
... potential homeowners are waiting to see how low prices will fall before buying - because apparently, here in the Foothills prices have not dropped to levels low enough to stimulate sales. And it may be because, unlike Vegas, Phoenix, and those other places, as yet, we have very few motivated (those in distress/foreclosure) sellers.  

And of course I've always thought of that as a blessing, who wouldn't, but now as this market slowdown groans on, I'm beginning to wonder. Do sellers have what it takes to, on their own, cut prices to levels that will stimulate sales, before they're conscripted into the ranks of motivated sellers.

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

even more choices

In case you haven't noticed, there have been a lot of new listings coming to market recently in the Tucson Foothills. At the beginning of the year we had about 518 homes for sale. By yesterday morning it had jumped to 534, and this morning we're at 552 556. And because this is (usually) our busy season, I expect that trend to continue for a while.

So you'll have even more homes to choose from during the next few months than at any other time of year. But more to the point, a lot of it is fresh inventory, rather than just re-treads of old listings that haven't sold.

And now you can search for all those homes while you're on the go, from your iphone, Blackberry or other web enabled mobile device at Long Realty's brand new mobile web site.

So if you're cruising around the Foothills and happen to run across the home you've been dreaming of, there's no need to wait. Just fire up your mobile browser, go to www.m.LongRealty.com, enter the address, and in two secs the listing pops up with all the key info,
like this,
   

3718 E Rose Peak Pl
Tucson AZ 85718

Price:$1,495,000  MLS#: 20804177
Beds: 4  Baths: 2 Full/1 Three-Qtr/1 Half 
Status: Active
Listing Provided Courtesy Of: Long Realty Company
Contact John Schneider, johnschneiders@gmail.com, (520) 271-4164
________________________________________

Then Click on the address link, and it opens to more info, like this,

3718 E Rose Peak Pl
Tucson AZ 85718

Subdivision: Foothills II (The)

From its eagles nest perch atop one of the highest sites overlooking the entire Tucson Valley-the Intoxicating 360 City & Mountain Views surround you morning thru night. This Dramatic SW style home is designed to capture those Jaw-Dropping views from every room & each of the superb outdoor living areas.With walls of windows,high timber beam ceilings,balconies/patios from every room,& a to-die-for pool area-in an unmatched setting ABOVE IT ALL

Directions: Alvernon/ Skyline North, Windy Point Dr. West thru gate, left on Finger Rock, left on Rose Peak Pl. to address.
Price:$1,495,000  MLS#: 20804177
Property Type: Single Family
Beds: 4  Baths: 2 Full/1 Three-Qtr/1 Half  Year Built: 1983
Status: Active
Sq.Ft.: 4599 
Listing Provided Courtesy Of: Long Realty Company
Contact John Schneider, johnschneiders@gmail.com, (520) 271-4164
_____________________________________________________________
What could be easier.
And you can search for all the same properties listed for sale at  LongRealty.com, which means everything in the MLS.
You can search by property address and MLS#, and advanced searches includes Zip Code, City, Bedrooms, Baths, Price, and Square Feet. You can also search for open houses, and search and contact
a Long Realty agent me.

Enjoy!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

a lucky buyer just got this one

After just 82 days on the market this gorgeous La Quinta is under contract. La Quinta is a long-time, super high-quality, custom builder in the Tucson Foothills.

 
They often build in this Spanish Colonial style, and they do it very, very well, with authentic high quality materials and great craftsmanship. La Quinta is the real thing, and a personal favorite.

This home was listed for $1,485,000, or $266/sf.
In my opinion, a great price for this house.

And it's a house of 5's,
5577 sf, 5 bedrooms/5.5 baths, and, a 5 car garage.
It nearly new, built in 2008, masonry construction, on 1.8 acres, pool, spa, hand plastered walls, brick floors and more,
and one unalterable negative, the house backs up close to Campbell

see it here> 5136 N. Calle Ladero Tucson, AZ

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who do you trust

David Lereah the former chief economist and cheerleader for the NAR, who is now self-employed, claims that his relentlessly sunny predictions for the real estate market were the result of pressure from his NAR bosses to issue optimistic forecasts.

The NAR on the other hand, claims "... during his tenure Mr. Lereah was "solely responsible for the content of NAR forecasts and housing reports -- both the data and the interpretation."

From WSJ.com
Realtors' Former Top Economist Says Don't Blame the Messenger

You decide;

□ NAR

□ David Lereah

□ Both

□ None of the above

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this is a test,@ what $/sq ft are buyers buying

Cobbling together data from this blog and the homes for sale & sold info on my web site, a reader observed;

The other thing I have been watching is price/sf. Very little action above $250/sf.  I think the highest sale I have seen for a while was at $256.  There are a lot of listings above $300.

BAM BAM BAM
I love it when someone sets it all up for me and I just have to fill-in the blanks;

...Very little action above $250/sf
√ correct, just 4 sold in the last 60 days, and 210 are for sale

...I think the highest sale I have seen for a while was at $256
√ correct again, that was on 12/12

...There are a lot of listings above $300
√ 128 is a lot, particularly since 0 have sold in last 60 days

A+

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Technorati Tags: tucson foothills homes

my how things change

In May of 07 I wrote about the record price paid ($4,950,000) for a home in the ultra-luxe Saguaro Ranch development out in the boonies of the northwest side. Record Price for Tucson Home (and a creative title to boot)

Now less than two years later, the Arizona Daily Star reports on what may be the demise of this very ambitious project.

Luxury-home project is now a tunnel to nowhere

I hope they're able to pull through. But the current financial mess combined with negative pr, does not bode well for a big buck community that's dependent on the whims of, what are now, less well-off discretionary buyers.

32 for sale above 6000 sq ft ...

This 7913 sq ft home in Eleven Arches just came on the market listed for $2,900,000. And it got me wondering how many people out there are looking for really big homes like this. 
Apparently not too many right now, as there seems to be a dwindling interest in, or maybe it's a diminished ability to pay for, really big homes.

In all of 2008, just 4 sold in the Foothills that are 6000 or more sq ft. And three of those four sales took place before the end of February. So since March 1, 2008, just one sale of a 6000+ sq ft home. 

Yet there are 32 for sale at 6000+ sf, topping out at a 9630 sq. ft bruiser available for $6,450,000 up in the Canyons.

But in happier times, remember 2006 and 2007, 11 homes sold each year at 6000+ sq ft. And in 2005, when buying more house simply meant more upside potential, 17 sold. One of which was the 12,600 sq. ft. Eleven Arches estate built in 1937 by Joesler and Murphey on 200 acres. Though by the time of the 2005 sale, the land had been whittled down to less than 5 acres.

And by the way, the house pictured above, along with quite a few other big homes, is built on a bit of that acreage split off from the original 200 of Eleven Arches.

So if buyers enthusiasm for big homes were to return to it's peak of 2005, we'd be looking at about a two year supply. But I'm guessing that may not happen too soon, so as it stands now, we're looking at somewhere around an eight year supply.

And if you are in the market for a big home, of course there's not much to go on in the way of similar sale comps to use in negotiating your deal. But don't fret, because that's your strongest point.
32 to choose from and no sales. Hey, let's make a deal.

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they bit the bullet

In 2005 the owners paid $945,000 for this house, and they listed it yesterday for $849,000, or just under $223/sq ft. This looks like a terrific house that's also very well priced.

It's built in 2005, 3812 sq. ft., 4 bedrooms/3.5 baths, on 1.25 acres high up in the Foothills near Sabino Canyon. 

 
Who knows what'll happen, and this may sound far-fetched, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they received multiple offers.

See it here> 5983  N Sabino Shadow Ln, Tucson, AZ

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trying to sell your home

This won't work anymore

The simple fact is, there are more (a lot more) homes for sale than there are buyers. And if giddiness over the start of our busy season has caused you to lose sight of that reality, have a look at current inventory vs recent sales (sales, Oct 1 - Dec 31) and you'll see we've got a long way to go.

$0 to $500k - 169 for sale, 59 sold = 8 1/2 months inventory

$501 - $1.0 - 228 for sale, 42 sold = 16+ months inventory

$1.01 - $1.5 - 67 for sale, 2 sold = 100 months inventory

$1.51 - $2.0 - 36 for sale, 2 sold = 54 months inventory

$2.01 & Up - 36 for sale, 1 sold = 108 months of inventory

So unless you're in the $0 to $500K group, which is getting dangerously close to normal inventory levels, you've got more competition than ever before, and buyers who are routinely, and without a twinge of regret, passing up all but the most well-priced homes.

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"For the time being, now is probably the best time, most of us will ever see in our lifetime to buy a house," Hodges said.

yeah sure, what else is new.

Hodges by the way, is Rick Hodges, CEO of the Tucson Association of Realtors.

From KVOA.COM
The Status of Tucson Real Estate

Average Mortgage Rate Hits 5%, Lowest in Decades

The New York Times
The Federal Reserve’s plan to coax mortgage rates lower is working: rates on 30-year fixed loans fell for the 10th consecutive week to the lowest levels in decades, according to a recent Freddie Mac survey.

What is not clear, however, is whether rates are attractive enough to lure a significant number of home buyers back into the ailing housing market.
Read it here> Average Mortgage Rate Hits 5%, Lowest in Decades

5% seems like a gift from heaven.
When we bought our first house in 1981, we were living in Chicago and bought a house in Highland Park on the north shore.
Rates were 17% then, but we weren't discouraged, we wanted to buy a house in the burbs, so we went ahead and bought. What were we supposed to do, put our life on hold and wait for rates to come down. We got a pretty good deal on the house, and then we refinanced 3 times over the next 4 years and eventually got it down to the single digits. And it was the right thing to do.  

But 5%, that's close to free money.

for Joesler fans

feast your eyes

This late model Joesler (built 1959) just came back on the market after having been in escrow for a while. 

Main house 3491 sq ft + guest house 1061 sq ft, 5 bedrooms/4.5 baths, on 1.4 acres in the old Foothills, listed for $1,359,000

The listing indicates, 'Lovingly updated, burnt adobe construction, mission tile roof w/chinked mortar, mesquite hardwood floors, massive beamed & cathedral ceilings, designer kitchen ...'

It's been a long dry season for Joesler fans, very little available lately, and this one is a beauty, so I don't expect it to be sitting around for too long. But we'll see.

Here's the listing > 5543  N Espina Rd, Tucson, AZ

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now this, is tempting

Just in case you're interested in one of these homes, and who wouldn't be - go ahead, have a look,

 

-or more likely, you've got your heart set on buying both of them, because they are right across the street from each other, ya know. But there's just one little wrinkle you need to know about. Before you can go inside and have a look around, you and your agent just have to take a sec and write up an offer that looks good to the seller. Want to see 'em both, just write up two offers. And they're owned by the same person, so that makes it easy.

Nothin' to it really, and the nice thing is, you get all that haggling and paperwork out of the way ahead of time. Once you and the seller have hashed things out and agreed on price and terms and everybody's signed on the dotted line - then away you go, and you're free to go inside and look around to your hearts content, and see what a good deal you got. 

Now I know you probably can't wait to get on this, but I'm busy tomorrow, and the next day I'm at the dentist all day, and the day after that I'm getting my horse re-shoe-ed, and then ..

So if you can't wait for me, just drive on by and have a look for yourself, they're at 6521 & 6530 N Camino Padre Isidoro. And if that's not tempting enough, they're both short sales.

Can't wait to hear.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the bad news is you may not be able to find your dream home

That is, if you have your sights set on only buying a foreclosure or short sale in the Tucson Foothills.

Because of the endless who-ha about foreclosures and short sales -in Arizona - in Phoenix - in California - Florida and elsewhere- many people have come to believe, that of course the Foothills are also overflowing with short sale and foreclosure properties that are ripe for the pickin'. But the good news is, that's not so.

I bring this up again, because recently I've had a rash of people who are only interested in buying a short sale or foreclosure. And I'm glad to help any way I can, but the truth is, the pickin's are slim.

Right now there are just 25 single family homes in the Foothills that are listed as a short sale or foreclosure in the Tucson MLS.
25, that's it.

And just looking at price, those 25 cover a lot of territory.
They range from $255,900 to $1,498,000.

So let's say you're looking up to $300,000, you've got 5 to pick from, $500,000 to $750,000 is the fattest category with 9 available, $750,000 to $999,999, you get to choose from 3, and at $1,000,000 and up there's just 1. (although I know of 1 or 2 other million+ homes that I believe are short sales, yet are not listed as such)

Now start adding in your other preferences, like location, style of home, # of bedrooms/baths, 1 or 2 story, etc, etc, and you see what I mean. The pickin's are slim, really slim.

You may get lucky, or if you're willing to be really flexible, your odds of finding one will improve. But if you do see something that looks like it might do the trick, call me, and we'll talk about it, and take a look.

These are the listings for the 25 short sale &/or foreclosures in the Tucson Foothills. **the link to the listings will expire on 2/6/09

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will this affect us

Striking Declines Seen in Manhattan Real Estate Market
By JOSH BARBANEL  The New York Times

'For those New Yorkers who wondered what the Manhattan real estate market might be like without the ever-rising bonuses of Wall Street’s elite, the answer is now emerging: an abrupt decline in transactions, tottering prices and buyers who are still looking but unwilling to sign a contract.'

'Pamela Liebman, president of the Corcoran Group, a real estate brokerage, said that though the Manhattan market had continued to rise in the past year when most of the American housing market was in decline, it “came to a grinding halt on Sept. 15,” when credit markets collapsed and buyers lost confidence.'

We don't get as many New Yorkers migrating to the Tucson Foothills as we do people from the mid-west and the west coast, and it sounds as if we may be seeing even fewer of them in the coming months. On the other hand, since the Foothills are a lot less costly than say, the Hamptons or Palm Beach, maybe we'll emerge as an amusing and thrifty alternative. Because believe me, I lived there for 25 years, and eventually, you've got to get out of N.Y.C.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

off to the races

It happens every new year. Lots of expired and new listings flood the MLS. Since Jan 1 we've seen 59 listings expire and 41 new listings come to market in the Tucson Foothills.

When listings are taken, they're taken for a specific period of time, usually six months, and often the expiration date is rounded up or down, so they're set to expire at the end of the month - that is, on the off chance they don't sell. It's much neater and tidier that way, as opposed to expiring on the 9th or 23rd of the month.  

And in the spirit of out with the old, in with new, the new year is the perfect time for a fresh start. Hence, lots of listings expire at the stroke of midnight on the 31st, only to be replaced by a new listing for those same properties in the next day or two. That's most of what we're seeing here, though there are some that are brand spanking new, new listings. 

But gladly, that's not the only action we're seeing in this new year.
Since January 2nd, thirteen homes in the Foothills have gone under contract. Five of them priced up to $500k, six between $500k to $1.0, and two priced at $1,000,000 +, a somewhat rare occurrence recently.

And that's a quick start. Because even though our busy season officially begins on Jan 2nd, usually we don't see much action until mid January or later. So grab your score card, hold onto your hats, and let's see what happens.

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remember David Lereah

I sure do. A loathsome character, and coincidentally, former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®, who with his relentlessly sunny predictions, did an awfully good job of helping to marginalize Realtors® in their own industry.

But Chris Fountain's got him pegged, 
Confessions of a real estate bull (shitter)

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a contrarian view

I showed a house yesterday on Via Paloma Colipava in La Paloma- that's a mouthful.
It was listed for $649,900, and looking up it's listing history I saw that it's been on the market for 531 days, and no sale. It started out at $749,000 in December of 2006, and inched it's way down to $649,900 in January of 08. So now it's been listed for $649,900 for one year, and still no sale. Hmmm, what to do. Well I know what I wouldn't do, but that's just me. They went ahead and did it. Today they raised the price $50,000 to $699,900.

In a normal year, it wouldn't be that unusual to see price increases at this time of year. Because this is the beginning of our busy season, at least it has been in the past, some sellers, and maybe their agent's too, start feeling confident and feisty that buyers will soon be swarming all over the place and bidding against each other for the privilege of buying their home.

But how do you rationalize a move like that in a year like this.
And just in La Paloma there are 18 homes for sale that are roughly comparable to this one, and just 3 have sold in the last 3 months.
So at a time like this, and with an 18 month supply, and having been on the market for 531 days, well, let's just call it an interesting contrarian maneuver. And wait and see what happens.

And you may see more of this, even now.

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a good start

Kicking off the new year, this new spec home in the Tucson Foothills just showed up as under contract, and I'll bet someone's breathing a big sigh of relief,

because it's been on the market about 900 days. Albeit for about a third of that time it was first a hole in the ground, and then under construction. But still.

When first listed it was priced at $1,775,000, and after um-teen price cuts over two years it recently settled at $1,375,000.
 4911  N Camino Antonio, Tucson, AZ  85718

I like this one and wrote about it here> these are in short supply

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the pivotal point

Yesterday I said, And now with the winter/spring selling season getting into full swing, we're at a pivotal point ...

And a reader wrote-in and asked what I meant by that, why is this a pivotal point.

Here's how I see it,

Many of the homes currently on the market have been for sale for a long time. Many didn't sell during last years winter/spring selling season, and then they held on through the long hot summer, hoping that things would pick up between September and Thanksgiving.
But for most, that didn't happen. Because instead of getting better, with the financial collapse, things got worse. And as they usually do, sellers wrote-off the time between Thanksgiving and the New Year, and thank goodness they did, because even in a good year that's a very slow time.

So having endured ten or twelve months or more of having their homes for sale, the second coming of the winter/spring selling season offers renewed hope that sales will finally pick up, and their ordeal will at last be over. But I think they also realize, or they should, that if it doesn't happen in the next four to five months, the ship will once again have sailed without them. And some may not be willing, or able, to hang on through another long hot summer.

So the question is, will those who haven't done so already, finally bite the bullet and offer their homes for sale at a price that offers significantly better value than the competition. And I don't mean being competitively priced, because if your home is competitively priced, you're just one of the pack. And it's an awfully big pack.

On the other hand, buyers have held off for a long time too, and there is some pent-up demand, or at least pent-up desire.
And now, because prices on homes have come down, buyers seem curious and even mildly enticed by those homes that are well priced. And after factoring in historically low interest rates, the numbers may be starting to make sense. But, and I repeat, only for those homes that offer significantly better value than the competition.

Stay tuned, I think this season will be pivotal, and more than just more of the same.

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