The Catalina Foothills

OK February's gone, so now what

These may not be the final final numbers, and I'll check again in a few days, but so far I count 38 homes sold in February.

25 sold in January, so February was a nice improvement but, when you've got 584 homes for sale, that's not saying all that much.

And my how time flies, because we're now just 3 or 4 months away from summer, and you know what happens then. So if you'd like to have a shot at being one of the lucky one's, price your home at least 15% under the competition, and do it now. And then you might want to pray or chant, or do whatever it is that makes it happen for you, because the 15% might not do it.

blogging the real estate market for what it is

I've noticed that Chris Fountain, my blogging buddy over at
For What It's Worth, has been getting a lot of heat lately for telling it like it is about the Greenwich, CT real estate market. And to hear the accusations, he's dragging the market down because of it.

It seems the local agents, at least those from the Ken & Barbie school of real estate, are aghast at what he's saying and, God forbid, don't want their clients and potential clients getting wind of his less than cheerful reports.

And while I haven't encountered quite the same degree of wrath as Chris, not to my face anyway, there does seem to be some, let's call it, misunderstanding about what this blog is all about and why I write it. So I was wondering how I should respond to this misunderstanding, when a reader wrote in the other day and did it for me. And better than I could have.

John - your blog rocks. It helps buyers feel more confident about the difficult decisions they have to make and helps sellers position themselves to make things move. Information pure and simple clears up what is a confusing market and helps keep things rolling.
Thank you
PK

Spot On PK. That's what it's about.

I've got a short sale coming up you might be interested in

Have a look,

 

 
It's at 6950 E Wild Canyon Pl in the gated community of Canyon Ridge - west on Snyder from Kolb to the top of the hill and through the gate.

It has an open floor plan with a well-equipped, big and open kitchen, including a 60 bottle wine cooler, open to the great room and sprawling mountain views

 
Built in 2003, it's single-story, 3746 sf, tall ceilings and lots of glass,

 
4 bedrooms/3 baths, extra large 3 car garage,

and a big south facing covered patio with an outdoor kitchen overlooking a gorgeous backyard with pool/spa and flagstone decking

And at $750,000, or $200/sf, I've priced it to sell fast.

details, disclosures, etc.

- this is a short sale
- these pictures are from a previous listing and sale of the house. It is now vacant and unfurnished, but has not been abused or damaged in any way, none of that nasty stuff, and appears to be in very good condition.
- at the moment the utilities are turned off, but should be on soon
- it last sold in November 2006 for the list price, $995,000
- it's not yet in the MLS, but will be going in on Friday 2/27
   If you're interested, contact me at 271-4164  or johnschneiders@gmail.com

PS, it last sold on 11/06 for $995,000

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

449 agonizing days on the market, and nothing to show for it

That happens all to often when the seller, and their Realtor®, set their sights too high.

This one's a classic example. It's a house in Fleicha Caida Ranch Estates 6 and was first listed for sale in November of 07.

When trying to figure out just the right price for this house I'll bet they looked at 'comps' of other homes that had sold in Fleicha Caida. But it also looks as if they decided to ignore them.

Because the four homes sold that year in Fleicha Caida, sold for,
- $365k -$200/sf, $500k -$148/sf, $548 -$208/sf, $660k -$219/sf.
And throwing caution to the wind they priced theirs at $889,000 or $276/sf.

But let's assume that this house was somehow nicer than all the others that sold in there. The question is, was it 60, 70 or $80/sf nicer- which translated to a premium of somewhere between $200,000 and $250,000. Apparently not.

And what were the odds of finding a buyer willing to spend $850,000 or so, in a neighborhood of $500,000 houses.

So of course it didn't sell, and after 449 days on the market, with nothing to show for it but grief, the listing expired today with the sellers now finally, though too late, willing to take $695,000 or $216/sf. Which would have fit in so nice and neatly with those 2007 comps they ignored. But now it's 2009, and I have a sneaking suspicion they won't fit in so nice and neatly with today's comps, that is if you can find any.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

talk about missing the mark

This house on Campbell finally sold today for $660,000 after eons on the market.

So what's the big deal.
Well at one time it was listed for $1,795,000, then dropped down to $1,395,000, and between those two prices it rotted on the market for a year before being reduced to $999,900, then to $949,900, then on and on until it was snapped up when it got down to $669,900. $104/sf, 6342 sf, masonry construction on a somewhat noisy acre above Campbell.

And of course a foreclosure, induced, I think it's safe to say, by ridiculous pricing early on.

5775 N Campbell Ave
**the link will expire on 3/24/09

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

buying the most expensive house on the block

Unless you need to be the big fish, it's never been the smart way to go. But with things as they are, I can't imagine that even if a
wanna-be big fish did come along, that they'd be able to get financing for the biggest or most expensive house on the block.

This occurred to me today when I saw a house for sale for $1,299,500 in the Vista De Las Candelas subdivision.

When we were looking to down-size a couple of years ago, a house came up for sale in Vista De Las Candelas that was as perfect as we could have hoped for. We loved it. It was a mid-century adobe that had been completely and beautifully renovated. Gutted and redone,
it was just the right size, look, style, floor-plan, good views, everything we wanted, and at $845,000, or $306/sf, the price was OK too. I still keep a picture of it in my wallet.

BUT, in Vista De Las Candelas the next highest priced sale was
$615k and just $179/sf, and no matter how I tried, I couldn't get that $615 to look like $850.  And most of the other sales were in the high $300's to mid $400's. There's nothing wrong with this subdivision, it's a nice Foothills location, convenient, etc, etc. But because it's a community of older homes, and no one has put that kind of money into renovation and then sold, it didn't have even one comparable sale.

So while we knew it would go in a jiffy, and it did, we made up all kinds of reasons why it wasn't right for us and walked away, sobbing.

The one I saw today is listed for $1,299,500 and, while I wish them well, unless they get a real happy go-lucky cash buyer, I just don't see how they're going to pull it off.  The next highest sale in there is the one we walked away from, which sold for $825k in two days, but that was 2 1/2 years ago. Beyond that, the next highest sale is still the one at $615K that I tried to finesse. So nothing has changed, for the better anyway.

But then again, while I may be a smarty pants for not buying it, I still think about it.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

I didn't want to jump the gun on this

Everyday I update a link on my web site that shows all the homes that have sold in the Foothills in the last 30 days. So I'm acutely aware of how dreadfully slow sales have been, running at about
25 sales/month.

But for about 10 days now I've watched as, day by day, sales have picked up, and are now running at a fairly consistent 40 or so sales/month. And who knows where they'll go from here.

But for now here are the 40 homes sold in the latest 30 day period
along with a side of data; average sold price/$544k, median/$450k.
And surprisingly, the sales are not all hunkered down in the low range, but are pretty evenly spread from $210k to $1.4m, with nine sold over $800k and six of those at $1.0m and up. 

OK fine you say, but how does that compare to previous years;

For the same period in 2008 there were 32 sales,
@ an average sold price/$695k, median/$502.

In 2007, 40 sales,
@ an average sold price/$634k, median/$527

2006 saw 63 sales,
@ an average sold price/$687k, median/$543k

So sales are up, prices are down. Be thankful for small favors.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

in the last 14 days

25 homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills.

And that's good news, well it's good news for the low end of the market anyway. Since 24 of those 25 homes are priced (well) below the $649,000 median list price, the low end of the market continues to make strong headway.

From there we jump all the way to $995k for the one listing that's gone to contract above the median.

I wonder if they realize how lucky they are.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

I'd love to be a fly on the wall during listing presentations

Because as I look around I'm having a hard time understanding why people would set themselves up for failure and list their homes at prices that offer little to no chance of actually selling them.

This struck me yesterday when I saw a home listed for sale  - a bright cheerful new listing for a nice house in the Foothills - and noticed that it was priced at well over $340/sf.

And that got me wondering if, in between the polite chatter and the ooohing and aahing of the listing presentation, the listing agent happened to mention that there are 99 homes for sale in the Foothills priced at $340/sf and up, and, here's the really important part, in the last 3 months just one has sold. Yep, just one sold.

Now if you do the math, that works out to a staggering 297 month supply of homes priced at $340/sf and up, or about 24 years worth.
And because it's such a quick, handy and reliable guide to what homes really cost, more than ever, buyers are routinely examining and comparing $/sf costs.

And when they look at the 13 homes that have sold at $800k or more in the last 3 months, they see the average $/sf cost was $262.71 - a far cry from the 40 homes that have been listed for sale since January 1st at $340, $350 and more/sf.

So Mr. & Mrs. home seller, while I hate to be the bearer of bad news and I'd love to help you sell your home, as you can see, our chances of selling at this price are not so good. And so on and so forth

I wonder, is this stuff coming out loud and clear over the din of ooohing and aahing.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

it's just supply & demand

The homes listed since January 1st have been listed at an average price that's way up there in the high $800's, while the homes that have sold since January 1st, sold at an average price that's down in the mid $500's.

This gap between listing and selling prices is not a new phenomenon, I've touched on it before.

But this time I ignored those homes that have been on the market for months or even years, and looked only at the most recent listings and sales- those that have taken place in the new year and new economic mess that we're mired in. Given current conditions, I thought maybe we'd see some moderation in high end listings.

But no, the gap still exists, and incredibly enough - because list prices have actually gone up since January 1st, because even more high end homes are being listed, it's wider than ever. It's now a 60% gap between the price of homes listed and homes sold.

And it isn't about million dollar homes selling for $600,000, though that may not be too far off if this continues. It's about the basics, abundant supply and puny demand at the high end.

And if it were just real estate that was in the tank, and not the entire world economy, you'd make a convincing argument that most high-end home owners were well-heeled enough to see their way through to better times. But no one, in their right mind anyway, would try to make that argument today. And at that, it wouldn't be far fetched to wonder if that's not why many of these high end homes are being listed.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

going green

It's getting really tiring. Between the NAR and the local real estate schools we're bombarded with ads to 'go green' and take the NAR's Green Designation course.

Saving energy and building and selling more energy efficient homes, and learning the ropes in the green arena would seem to be a good thing for all.

Except that I've seen just one home for sale in the Foothills with a certified green designation. I think it was a LEED gold level home, the tippy-top in the green world. And it was beautifully done, a great renovation and a beautiful home that had the added advantage of being a home that was much less expensive to heat, cool and boil your tea in than a traditional home. Much less expensive.

But that home sat on the market forever and a day and, ended up selling for way less than the much reduced list price and, well under what the owner had put into it. About $300K under.

And I met the owner and talked with her, and admired what she'd done, green or otherwise, but given what it had cost her to attain that LEED designation, no buyers were interested.

Going green is so far down on the must-do list for residential real estate as to be virtually non-existent.

Yet despite what I'm sure are noble intentions, what else could it be, the NAR and the local real estate schools fail to take market conditions into account, and relentlessly press their agenda.

Give it up guys, it has the familiar ring of that well-worn NAR chant-
Now is a great time to buy or sell a home.
No kidding, thanks for the advice.

See, just because we're Realtors® we're not immune to the ways of the NAR.

you can't always get what you want

5551 N Camino Real - wanted $1,449,000 they got $850,000

6463 E Via Amable - wanted $995,000 they got $825,000

6300 N Placita Tia Ro- wanted $1,195,000 they got $840,000

4070 N Palo Verde Blvd-wanted $995,000 they got $860,000

6084 N Indian Trail- wanted $1,034,900 they got $865,000

3260 E Sun Cloud Pl- wanted $1,099,000 they got $1,000,000

5543 N Camino Real- wanted $1,495,000 they got $1,000,000

4911 N Camino Antonio- wanted $1,775,000 they got $1,050,000

7720 E Shadow Vista Ct-wanted $1,325,000 they got $1,075,000

7570 N Calle Sin Controversia- wanted $1,750,000 they got $1,170,000

6410 N Nirvana Pl- wanted $1,295,000 they got $1,175,000

4207 N Sabino Mountain Dr- wanted $1,365,000 they got $1,250,000

4361 E La Paloma Dr- wanted $1,400,000 they got $1,400,000

13 homes, that's everything that's sold in the Foothills at $800,000 and up since November 1st. Everything.

The what they wanted figure is the original list price which, I assume, is what those home owners really wanted.  

And seeing this, I think the time has come to acknowledge these new lower prices, for the homes that are selling anyway, and those are the only ones that really count, and start calling $800,000 the new $1,000,000, and therefore the new threshold to the luxury market here in the Foothills.

Which isn't all bad. We're just getting in tune with the times and adjusting our expectations a bit. And if it catches on, it may even cause a few homeowners to feel more comfortable with the idea of listing their homes for less, while still being able to maintain that coveted luxury listing status. What do you think?

but if you try sometimes you get what you need

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the high end vs the low end

Yesterday I mentioned the high end of the market is burdened with high inventory and saddled with slow sales and, relatively speaking, the low end is doing OK.

Take a look at the figures below on the number of homes for sale & the number sold during the last 3 months in different price ranges, and you'll see what I mean.

# of homes for sale ÷ # sold last 3 months X 3 = months of inventory (MOI)

$0 - $500 - 193/60 = 9.6 MOI

$501 - $750 - 156/23 = 20 MOI

$751 - $1.0 - 81/7 = 35 MOI

$1.01 - $1.5 - 66/5 = 39 MOI

$1.51 - $2.0 - 44/0 =  ????? MOI

$2.01 - UP - 40/0 = ????? MOI (with no sales it's impossible to determine how many months of inventory there are)

I can't help wondering if the people who have their homes for sale at the high end really understand what they're up against. And I'm betting a lot of them don't. Sure, they know the market's slow, they just don't have any idea how slow it really is in their price range, and how impossibly slim their chances are.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

... your blog focuses on high-end homes, while pretty much ignoring lower priced homes

why is that, a reader asked.

-because most of my clients are at the high end, or the mid to high end anyway, and since that's my market I try to address it

-because the high end of the market is burdened with a high inventory of overpriced homes and saddled with slow sales.
And relatively speaking, the low to mid price range is doing OK so, for that reason alone, the high end is more interesting and more in need of a good dose of reality too- which is what I try to bring to the party

-because I frequently write about spec homes and all the spec homes in the Foothills are at the high-end

-because most of the homes in gated communities, and there are many gated communities in the Foothills, are high end homes,

-because I come across more wheeling & dealing & shenanigans at the high end than at the other end, and that's more interesting than nice tidy stories about Bob and Jane selling their $400k home.

-because generally homes at the high end are more interesting to look at, if only because there's more to them, and therefore to write about than homes at the low end.

-and because, I suppose, I just prefer to write about high end homes

And maybe it's because when I started in real estate in 2001, my first few transactions were for high end homes. I used to do a lot of open houses in those days, at least two, and often three a week - Wednesdays, Saturdays and Sundays. I thought that was a good way to meet buyers and see what was on their minds.

And I ended up doing quite a bit of high end business from those open houses. And since then I haven't been able to kick the habit.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

sale prices are on the way up

No I'm not kidding.

Look, here's a snapshot of average and median sale prices for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills from May 08 through yesterday.

 

The biggest dip occurred between the October high of $684,040 average/$570,000 median - and the December low of $420,746 average/ $365,000 median.

But since the beginning of the year there's been a definite upward trend to sale prices - January was up, and so far February is up from there, with a $577,572 average/$486,250 median sale price.
(for reference, the all-time high for Foothills prices was 2006-
$703,616 average/$571,000 median)

So does this mean home prices are rising? No, I don't think so.
What it does mean is that in the sales mix, more higher-end/higher-priced homes are selling, and that's what the rise in the median price is telling us.

The highest priced sale during Nov/Dec was $865k, with the vast majority of sales below $550k - a very wimpy two months - VS. so far this year, already we've had 7 sales at a $1,000,000 and up.

So Great! But make no mistake, the one's that are selling are the one's that are well-priced. And for now I'd hold off on the hats n' horns too, because there are still 152 for sale priced at $1.0mil and up, so we've got an awfully long way to go. Too long I'm afraid.

But it's a start, and it looks as if we've broken through the low price ceiling, and that's a good thing, because if it's going to happen at the high end, it's got to happen between January and June.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

here's how buyers see it

A reader, who is also a home buyer client, commented on my
Pima Canyon post, where I said,

The 24 homes for sale are listed for an average of $2,362,458, or 21% more than they were listed for in that long-ago banner year that was 2006. And on a $/sf basis, they averaged $403/sf in 06, and today they're at $453/sf.

John, for what it's worth, here is my take on PC.  Since none have sold in the past 3.5 months, it is anybody's guess as to what a fair market value is in today's market.  Given 2006 selling prices at around $400/sf, I would start at an even 10% haircut; i.e. $360/sf as an average and go from there.

Anybody listening.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

on the other hand this house in Cobblestone

listed for $1,099,000 sold in just 21 days, and closed yesterday for an even million, or $241.72/sf.

Cobblestone is one of the discreetly posh communities here in the Foothills. And just for perspective, in 2007 eight homes sold in Cobblestone, and every one of them sold for more than $300/sf, one for over $400, but that was then and this is now, and these people got it right, right from the start.

Price it right, sell it fast, move on.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

19 months on the market, 17 price changes, 4 times under contract, and it's still for sale

And may be a record.

It's a short sale now and has been for some time, though it did start life as a normal, well-adjusted, though apparently at $935,000
over-priced , non-distress sale. And after a topsy-turvy 19 months on the market, it can now be yours for $575,000.

And there have been some interested buyers for this home, because it has gone to contract 4 times, but each time it's fallen out again.
And I don't know the reason for that, but it makes me wonder if there isn't some obstacle, some sticking point, something we're not seeing that keeps killing the deal.

If so, wouldn't it behoove all parties if the seller/lender just came clean and let everyone know up-front what the fly in the ointment is.
At least then, interested buyers could go into the deal with their eyes wide open, instead of messing around for 3 or 4 weeks only to discover there's a deal breaker hiding in a corner somewhere.

The listing does say - Utilities are off and will not be turned on for inspection by seller. And that's definitely an obstacle, but they've said it, up-front, so that's not it.

And aside from what may or may not be lurking in the corner, this, unfortunately, is a storybook tale of lagging a falling market, only to end up as distress sale.

Now on it's 5th run> 5759 N Campbell Ave!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

REJECTED

I haven't gotten one of these since the RAh-Rah days so, when an offer I'd submitted the other day was rejected, you can imagine my surprise. And the offer wasn't one of those 30-40% under-list low-balls, it was within 15% of the list price, the original and
as yet never-reduced list price.

The sellers may not be aware of this and may not give a damn, but the homes that have sold this year - with the exception of those that sold in the 1st 30 days on the market - have sold for an average of
9 to 12% off the list price. Knowing that, an offer that's 15% under list shouldn't seem too miserly, especially when you've been sitting on the market 3 months.

But it gets better. I have it on good authority that these same sellers received an offer for the exact same amount just recently.
And that offer was rejected too. So I don't feel so bad.

But here's the kicker. I was speaking with the listing agent, trying to understand the- how/why/& based on what- reasons that the offer was rejected, and he explained that they were ticked at having gotten two 'low ball' offers. Ticked. They got two offers and they're ticked.

And so I wondered, out loud, if they'd bothered to consider that maybe the market was trying to tell them something about their price. But that went nowhere, so I begged off.

And I'd tried to avoid just this kind of confusion - you know, in case they were not totally up to speed on the state of the current real estate market here in the Foothills - I did include a cover letter that painted a pretty clear picture of where the market is in their price range. (51 for sale, 2 sold in the last 3 1/2 months, for X$$, etc, etc) 

But apparently, they want what they want, and can't be bothered with those of us who don't appreciate their position. ... and so, good bye and good luck.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

hey at least it sold

After trailing the market for about 16 months this David Tyson spec house on Camino Real finally sold today.

It came on the market with high hopes listed at $1,449,000 in August 07, and ended listed for $997,235 about a month ago. At which point it quickly went to contract, and sold today for $850,000, or $233/sf, or, 58% of it's original list price.

It's the smallest of the three new Tyson's that were built on part of the old Joesler estate on Camino Real. New construction,
3645 sf, nicely appointed, on an acre in the old Foothills with pretty good mountain views. And a good deal for the buyers. Enjoy!

By the way, the largest of the three, at 4733 sq ft, 6 bedrooms/4.5 baths, listed for $1,195,000, is still available. 

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

what's doin' in Pima Canyon

Right from the start Pima Canyon captured everyone's imagination. When it first opened it's doors, I think it was in 2000, everyone wanted to get in there to ooh n' aah. And when things really got going with spec houses over the next few years, people literally swarmed to Pima Canyon in a Million $+ spec home feeding frenzy.

20 homes sold in Pima Canyon in 2006 with an average list price of $1,948,450, and an average sold price of $1,849,533.

But my how things have changed, and today there are 24 homes for sale in Pima Canyon, and none have sold in the last 3 1/2 months, and none are under contract. Now you'd think that, with a lot of supply and no demand, prices would have come down. Not so. Instead they've gone up.

The 24 homes for sale are listed for an average of $2,362,458, or 21% more than they were listed for in that long-ago banner year that was 2006. And on a $/sf basis, they averaged $403/sf in 06, and today they're at $453/sf.

Now I don't think people have lost their taste for the charms of Pima Canyon. But I do think that the few Pima Canyon buyers who are out there, have no interest in bailing out those owners who bought and builders who built, at sky high prices, and now want buyers to cover their bad bets. That won't happen.

And of course that last bit about buyers not covering sellers bad bets is true everywhere, not just in the rare air of Pima Canyon.
I've been working with a lot of buyers and showing a lot homes in the last month, and I often hear from the listing agent that the owners paid such n' such for the house and then put X$$ in it, and that's why it's listed where it is.

So what you're telling me is, you want my buyers to make up for your sellers mistake of timing, of judgement, of whatever. Yeah sure, and while we're at it, maybe they've got some GM stock they'd like to unload.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

an eye opening bit of data

I was looking at the homes that have sold so far this year and
stumbled across the breakdown of how much sellers received based on how long it took to sell. In Realtor lingo, % of sale price to list price, %SP/LP.

Incredible though it may seem, homes that sold in the first 30 days on the market sold for an average of 99% of list price. 99%, in this market.

When it took 31-60 days the % dropped all the way to 91%.
61-90 days it was 89%, 91-120 days and the seller received just 88% of list price, and when it took more than 120 days they got 90% of list.

So buyers are jumping on well priced homes, and the oft heard,
we can always reduce the price later, isn't holding a drop of water.
What else is new.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

not only is the market slow, but it's fragile too

In the good old days, when you got an acceptable offer, it usually stuck, and in the next month or so you closed escrow, and that was that. Not any more.

After about 18 months on the market and numerous price reductions-from it's high of $2995,000 down to it's December low of $1,999,999 -this house finally went to contract in early December. And now two months later, with the finish line finally in sight, it fell out of escrow yesterday, and today it's back on the market. Now for $1,895,000. 3333 E Cobblestone Pl, Tucson AZ 85718

This one at 5983 N Sabino Shadow Ln is a terrific house that was listed at the right price in early January and went to contract in just 4 days. But 7 days later it fell out of escrow and was back on the market. 1 day later it went to contract again. And 2 weeks after that it fell out of escrow again. And now it's back on the market for the 3rd time is less than 6 weeks.

After about a year on the market 7605 E Crested Saguaro Pl on Sabino Mountain, listed for $1,849,000, finally went to contract on February 2nd, and promptly fell out on February 6th.

5771 N Campbell Ave has been listed as a short sale since February 08, and has gone to contract 3 times and fallen out 3 times.
This one's interesting because it was a spec house that sold for $2.2 in April 07, and went back on the market for 50% off 10 months later at $1.1. It's now $999, and waiting for a 4th buyer to come along.

5372 N Via Alcalde was listed in May 08 for $875,000 and nothing happened until September, by which time the price was down to $799,000, and presto, it went to contract. And after two weeks, it fell out. So back on the market it went. In October they reduced it to $750,000 and again it went to contract, but quickly fell out yet again. Undeterred, they put it back on the market for $745,000, and bingo, third times the charm, once again it went to contract. But still it didn't stick, and after that they finally gave up and rented it.

There are many more like this, and that's why the number of homes sold constantly fails to live up to the promise of the (much larger) number of homes under contract.  So if you accept an offer, you might want to hold off on the hats and horns until it actually closes.
Then go wild.

sold, for a song

I wrote about this house a couple a times (here & here) because I thought it was special.

It was a new spec home, a contemporary, which, for reasons unknown to me, we don't see many of in the Foothills.

But it sold today for $1,050,000. And that's a pretty big deal.

Here's why,
This is the last of three new spec homes designed and built by Don Kornberg in this little enclave off Camino Antonio. And all three are virtually identical, in size, design, style and amenities.

The first one sold in April 2007 for $1,715,000. The second sold this past July 2008 for $1,350,000. So $365,000 less than the one sold last April.

And now the 3rd and last has sold, for even less, $1,050,000. $1,050,000!

Here's how it shakes out;
April 2007 - sold- $1,715,000, 4576 sq ft = $374.78/sf
July 2008 - sold- $1,350,000, 4500 sq ft = $300.00/sf
February 2009 - sold- $1,050,000, 4451 sq ft = $235.90/sf
These people got a screamin' deal, because that's the market we're in.

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

in the last 5 days

We have this pricing pattern going on here in the Foothills, and it goes like this.

The homes that get listed for sale are priced a lot higher than the homes that are going under contract and selling. And we can't seem to break the pattern. You see what's happening is, lower price homes are selling pretty well but, very few higher priced homes are selling. And still a lot of higher priced homes keep getting listed for sale. And they're really starting to pile up.

For example, in just the last 5 days,

23 homes were listed for sale, and they averaged $221/sf, average list price was $695,461, median list was $569,000

and the 11 homes that went under contract averaged $191/sf, average list price was $500,527, median list was $449,000

and just 1 sold, so there's not much there to work with but, if you must know, it sold for $280,000, or a measly $159/sf.

And I realize that I've beat this drum to death, but still, it shows no sign of stopping, and I think one reason for that is that some people still don't get it.

Like in this example from real life.
I've been working with some buyers, and one of the homes we found that interested them is priced at around a million.

And after the showing, the listing agent called me to see 'how it went'. It went good, I said, nice house, lovely lemon trees, but I'm curious, how'd you arrive at your price, seems kinda high.

Well, in August a house up here sold for blah-blah-blah and...
August, August was, in August - that's history book stuff, has nothing to do with now, and by the way, you had to go all the way back to August for a comp.

Well, uh,

I told her that just for the fun of it, I'd book ended her list price by $125k - so from the $800's to over a million. And by the way, in that price range you've got some competition- there are 52 homes for sale. And guess how many have sold in the last 3 1/2 months. She wouldn't guess, so of course I told her. 0, none, nothing has sold. That's the market.

So please, tell me again, how did you arrive at your price.

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looking for a fixer-upper on 4.3 in the old Foothills

If so, don't miss this one, because they don't come along too often. Just listed, it's 3537 sq. ft., brick built in 1976, on 4.3 acres off
Calle Ladero, for $985,000.

There are 3 bedrooms and 3 baths but, that probably doesn't matter much, since I'm pretty sure anyone interested in this property, would be interested in it for the land and the potential, read, gut and re-do.

This is a view from the house,

  

and this is the house. It looks like a north/south orientation, with
a south facing yard, from which I wonder if there are city views-
the listing says 'twinkling city lights'

These owners have owned it since 1981, so it's ready for some new blood and a little freshening up. And the listing comes right out and says so, 'Bring your decorator & architect to this classic territorial in the old Foothills! On 4.3 acres, w/unobstructed Catalina Mtn views & twinkling city lights!'

See it here> 5320 N Calle Ladero, Tucson,AZ 85718

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

is it still so true that 'all real estate is local'

For a few years now I've participated in a monthly real estate survey sponsored by Credit Suisse, and each month they email me the survey results which run about 60 pages. They survey real estate agents in 40 markets, including Tucson, and produce a report for each of those markets, in addition to an overall national report.

In the past I've usually found their summary of the national scene was, at best, a hit and miss resemblance to what was happening here in Tucson. That is, until about six or seven months ago when everything changed and the differences became fewer and, month after month, what was happening nationally began to increasingly mirror the Tucson market. Or vice-a-versa. 

And today, as I read the highlights of the latest national report, I was particularly struck by the similarities to the Tucson market.
And I'll bet those same conditions are prevalent in many markets throughout the country. Because everyone is affected by the lack of credit, the deteriorating economy, falling real estate prices, and the resulting loss of confidence. And those national conditions are taking precedence over local market conditions that, in the past, would have exerted more influence, positive or negative, over those markets.
As in the oft heard 'all real estate is local'.

And while Credit Suisse doesn't have a corner on being the bellwether of market conditions around the country - this stuff is available all over the web, but you have to hunt and peck for it - they survey the top 40 markets and package it so nice n' neat and tidy, that it's an at-a-glance look at conditions from sea to shining sea. And last but not least, let's not forget, it's based on the opinions of real estate agents. 

It's happening everywhere,
From the Credit Suisse National real estate market Summary;

Higher Traffic, But Extremely Price Sensitive

Traffic up again in January; economy leads to some caution, but buyers focus on lower prices and mortgage rates.

We’ve generally seen an up tick in traffic in January relative to
December, but believe it was more significant this year as a result of the attractive affordability. Most sales activity remains at the lower price points, with especially strong demand for foreclosures.

Homebuilders will need to adapt to compete with foreclosures or should expect limited orders.

There was, however, continued concern among buyers as to the prospects for the economy with buyers needing to think that they were getting a great “deal” before moving ahead with a purchase.

We do not expect prices to increase until we see significantly lower inventory levels and believe that the improving traffic is a function of these lower prices.

Our home listings (inventory) index declined to 43.5 from 48 in
December, with levels below 50 indicating rising inventory (which we would expect as inventory increases ahead of the Spring season)
______________________________________________________________

Until we turn a corner on what's ailing us, I don't care if you're in Boise or Birmingham, San Diego or St Louis, local markets conditions are going to take a back seat to the bigger mess we're in. So for now, I'd take the 'all real estate is local' adage with a grain of salt.

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

a little renovation project

A few years ago this little house in Skyline Country Club sold for $703,000, or $276/sf
 

 
it was just 2540 sq ft, 3 bedrooms/2 baths, built in 1973,
$703,000 for this, you say,

 

Yeah, well, it was a great lot in Skyline, on the golf course and with mountain views. That's why they bought it, but they also had a plan to fix it up a bit,

and Voila, today it came back on the market all fixed up,  
and at 5077 sq. ft., 4 bedrooms/5 baths, it also grew-up,

 
it went on the market yesterday for $1,950,000, or, $384/sf.
And at that, I'd say there's a lot more value now, than what they
got for $703k,

 

For about five years now quite a few homes in Skyline Country Club have either been torn down and rebuilt, like this one, or have had the kind of major renovations done where there's no resemblance from old to new.
Most of the homes in Skyline were built in the 60's and 70's, and the land is now so valuable that it just makes sense (or at least it did until recently), to tear them down and start over.

This just came on the market, so I haven't seen it in person yet, but from the looks of it, they did a complete top to bottom rebuild.

See it here> 4860 E Placita Tres Vidas, Tucson, AZ  85718

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an old fly in the ointment

I don't think it's news that tighter lending standards have put a crimp in high-end home sales. But apparently the data showing just how much of a crimp is starting to roll in. In this article The New York Times reports on the effects of otherwise willing, but now not able, high-end buyers being shut out of the market.

From The New York Times At the High End, Buyer Blues

THE story of a five-bedroom ranch in Scarsdale for sale at $2.195 million — reduced by $1.4 million since last spring — speaks volumes about what is happening at the high end of Westchester County’s real estate market.

The 57-year-old brick house, on an immaculately tended one-acre lot, has attracted bidders, but in today’s tight credit market, they were refused loans.

For the first time since the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service in White Plains began tracking million-dollar-plus sales in 2000, that sector has lost market share.

Here in the Foothills, high-end sales have followed a similar pattern. And worse yet, that decline in high-end sales has been accompanied by a meteoric rise in the number of high-end homes available for sale.

Pima Canyon, which didn't exist before 2001, added a couple of hundred high-end homes to the market, The Summit at Finger Rock a couple a dozen, and then the more recent trend of squeezing in
high-end spec homes here and there throughout the Foothills.

In 2002, 30 $1.0mil+ homes sold, in 2003 27 sold. Then things really started cooking, and in 2004 60 $1.0mil+ homes sold. Sales jumped to 98 in 2005, and we quickly peaked in 2006 with 126 homes sold for $1.0mil or more. And of course word of this frenzy had gotten out, and by then everybody who could swing a hammer was putting up high-end homes, just as the trend was reversing itself.

In 2007, we slipped to 91 sold, and then, dum-da-dum-dum, in 2008 just 54 sold. And we have 146 on the market, priced from $1,000,000 to $6,450,000.

Are there 146 buyers out there for these homes.
What about 100, are there 100 buyers, OK, how 'bout 50,are there 50

UPDATE- According to the LA Times, it's happening out there too.
Sales of homes priced at $1 million or more were down 43% in California last year, according to MDA DataQuick in San Diego, which attributed the drop to tight credit markets that made it more difficult to finance such large purchases.
Sales of million-dollar-plus homes plummet

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what is it with La Paloma Dr

A very observant reader wrote in and asked;

Here is a little puzzle. A home on E La Paloma Dr just listed. 
I checked, there are now 4 active listings, one under contract, and one sale on this street within a couple of weeks. There are not all that many homes on the street looking at an aerial. Isn't that a lot of activity for a single street?

It sure is. Look at the aerial and you can see the cluster of activity on this relatively small street high in the Foothills.

The four homes for sale are listed from $985 to $1.590, the one under contract is at $699, and the one that just sold (in 1 day, for full price) went for $1.4. All on La Paloma Dr. Why?

 

La Paloma Dr is way up in the Foothills with great views, and since the street dead-ends up there, it's also very peaceful and quiet. So peaceful and quiet that it feels remote, yet you're just four minutes to Swan & Sunrise.

The lots on the north side of La P Dr border the lots at the Summit at Finger Rock, and then you're into the Coronado National Forest.
On the south side, the lots sit high on a ridge overlooking the Tucson valley. So whether you're looking for city or mountain views, or both, check out La Paloma Dr. Without a doubt, that's a big part of the appeal.

See the four for sale on> La Paloma Dr

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how different is the market now than it was back then

The people that own this house are about to find out. In 2006 they paid $965,000 for it and, afraid of losing it I suppose, snapped it up on the very first day it came on the market. That was back then.

Now, or now as in 4 weeks ago, they listed it for sale for $985,000. But so far no one's snapped it up, so instead of toughing it out, yesterday they reduced the price to $899,000, or about 7% less than they paid in 2006.

This is one of those hard to find adobe-built Foothills charmers that sold in flash back then.

And assuming they're willing to take less than they're asking, it will be interesting to see how long it takes and what it goes for now.

See more here> 4755 N Camino Real Tucson, AZ 85718

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who said there's nothing happening out there

Let's just see about that. Since Feb 1 in the Foothills,
new listings and price reductions have led the pack, and are running neck and neck, with 35 in each category. 24 of the new listings are actually new, the 11 others are re-listings of old listings.

And the 35 price reductions are across the board from, $234,900 to $2,100,000. And two very confident owners have raised their prices- one from $550k to $599k, the other from $2,700,000 to $2,788,000.

And 10 buyers found the homes they were looking for, and were able to come to terms with the sellers of those homes. So those 10 homes priced from $299,950 to $1,849,000 went to contract. Unfortunately the one at $1,849,000 quickly fell out, and is now back on the market. So that seller is left empty-handed but, presumably, those buyers are now on the hunt for a replacement.

And 6 homes, priced from $283,000 to $860,000, have made it through the gauntlet and sold. On average, they sold for 94.5% of list price, and an average of $195/sf. But within the average, the low was $129/sf, and the high $286/sf. And the average sold price was $590,483, the median $554,950.

That's against the 571 homes that are still available from $184,500 to $6,450,000.

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don't let this happen to you

A house in Finisterra sold in December 2004 for $1,170,000, and has now gone into foreclosure. And it didn't have to happen.

Seven months after that sale - and after some work had been done to the house, but not a complete re-model as the listing promised, or maybe over-promised - it went back on the market, listed for $2,650,000, more than 2X what it sold for seven months earlier.

And that was in 2005 - in the hottest of hot markets - when 988 homes sold in the Foothills, more than ever before, or since. A time when homes routinely sold in just a few days, and for over list price. But even in that market, this house didn't sell.
Hmm, could there be a message there. OK, so it was over-priced, everyone makes mistakes. So they pulled it off the market, maybe planning to wait a bit for the market to get hotter yet, or to re-price it, or something, who knows.

But they waited til February of 07, and back on the market it went. But by Feb 07 the market was in decline - sales were off 25% from 05, and prices were slumping. And given that it didn't sell in the white-hot 05 market - oh crystal ball, where do you think we should price it this time - $2.3, $2.2, $2.1, hmm. Nah, how about $2,950,000. Yeah, $300k more than it didn't sell for in the hot 05 market. That sounds like a plan.

And it sounds as if I'm making this up too, but I'm not. It happened.

And today, yes it's still for sale, and reduced to $1,149,500, less than it sold for in 04, before the complete re-model.

This home was so over-priced it didn't have a chance, and now it's a foreclosure that didn't have to happen.

**Yesterday the price was reduced to $1,149,500, and this morning the listing was unexpectedly withdrawn from the MLS. And I have no idea why, but when it does come back on, I'll update this and  post a link here to the listing.

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keeping up with the Jones's in Ventana Overlook

This house in Ventana Overlook was listed last June for $1.6m,
and of course nothing happened.

And I don't know for sure, but it seems likely that their asking price might have had something to do with their neighbors asking price - you know, if they can get it we can too - the neighbor is at $1,895,000, reduced from $2,150,000.(see on the map)
The trouble with that strategy was that the neighbors house, a spec that has not sold, has been on the market for more than 2 years, and still no one's found it's price irresistible. 

 
 
So I guess they finally figured out that that was not a winning strategy and in agonizing dribs and drabs finally got their price down to it's current $999,000, which looks about right, and hopefully is not too late. But time will tell. 

And now, compared with the Jones's, who are still hanging tough at $1,895,000, they're sitting pretty. Though they would have looked a lot prettier about 6 months ago. 

And there's also a low-priced entry at $825,000 -which would look good, except it's location, cheek-to-jowl with Kolb Rd and the Gavi restaurant parking lot, may not be high on everyone's shopping list. The only sale in there in the last 13 months was the $1,275,000, last March, in other words, in another lifetime. So if one sells in here, which do you think it'll be.

See them here> 3 in Ventana Overlook

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my new favorite

Pardon me while I ooh and ahh, and maybe even drool a bit.
My new favorite is in Skyline Country Club, all the way up, almost at the top, with spectacular views of the entire Tucson valley.

It's new construction, masonry built in 2007 by Mike Wachs, who is well known as a master builder of ultra high quality homes.
This one is a simple and elegant interpretation of the Spanish Colonial style. Nothing fussy, nothing  overdone.

 

Beyond how beautiful it is, and the spectacular views - as I walked through it again and again, because I couldn't get enough - I was struck by the simplicity and elegance of the design, and the quality of the materials and craftsmanship that went into it.

And it's not one of those giant homes with stadium sized rooms that are so big you couldn't imagine how to actually live in them.

It's just 4079 sq. ft., 3 bedroom/3 baths, and a library/office.
And at $2,200,000, it is pricey. But if you're in that price range, and this sounds at all like what you're looking for, see it first, before you write it off and decide it's too pricey. And I'd be glad to show it, again, and again,...

Here's the listing > 5280 E Mission Hill Dr Tucson, AZ 85718

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January home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Uh, well, why beat around the bush. They were dismal.

In January, 24 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills. And looking back as far as 2000, that's fewer than any of the intervening years.

In 2000 - 47 sold, 2003 - 55, 2005 - 82, 2006 - 54,
07 - 42, and in 08 - 34 sold. What goes up ...

And this is curious - Of the 24 that sold in January, the bulk of them, that is 20 homes, sold for $625,000 or less. (note-the median price of all homes listed is $639,000)
Then nothing sold between $626,000 and $1,169,000. So the entire mid, to low-upper price range saw no action at all, and for that I have no theory, and certainly no explanation. Do you. The next and last four sales were from $1,170,000 up to $1,400,000. And that's it.
So none of the 96 homes listed for sale above $1.4mil, saw any action either. Though that, I get. 

And because there are 86 homes under contract, I fully expected to see many more of them close escrow in January.
So no doubt, February is going to be a bumper crop month, right.

Here are the closed listings for the> 24 that sold in January

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finally, a Joesler

This absolutely wonderful Joesler came on the market today, 

It's 5187 sq. ft., 3 bedrooms/4.5 baths, built in 1935,
with massive adobe walls and 7 fireplaces. Located on a 2.1 acre hilltop lot in the heart of Joesler country, from the street, it's completely hidden from view.

Very special, $2,100,000

This makes 3 Joesler's for sale in the Foothills.

See the listing> 5075 Calle La Vela Tucson, AZ

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shopping the Foothills market

This is it, everything's in place, well not quite everything, but let's not go there for now. It's February, the Super Bowl is behind us, the skies are blue - temperatures are in the 70's, and buyers from Chicago and Minneapolis, Omaha, Seattle, Des Moines, and other freezing cold places are roaming around the Foothills, lavishing in our wonderful weather and shopping for homes.

So I thought a short list, a kind of hit parade to some of the more popular communities & subdivisions in the Foothills might be useful -along with links to all the homes currently for sale in each.

The links will auto-update, adding new listings as they come to market and dropping those that have sold, or failed to sell and left the market.

So grab your shopping cart and let's head out from the eastern end of the Foothills & work our way west -

Ventana Country Club - about a mile north on Kolb Rd from Sunrise Dr.
A guard-gated, golf course community. 33 town homes and single family homes for sale from the low $400's to about $4.0mil.

Sabino Mountain - sits above Sabino Canyon Rd just south of Snyder Rd. Gated. 5 for sale from the low $500's to almost $2.0

Bonita Ridge - on Snyder Rd between Kolb Rd and Sabino Cyn Rd.
Gated. 5 single family homes for sale from about $500k to the mid $600's.

Fairfield - a sprawling community that runs from just west of Kolb Rd and south of Sunrise Dr west to Craycroft. Not gated. 41 town homes and single family homes currently for sale - priced from the low $200's to up to about $800,000.

Cimarron - about 1 mile east of Craycroft & just north of Sunrise Dr. Not gated. 10 single family homes for sale - priced from the mid $300's to $900,000.

Alta Vista - north on Craycroft from Sunrise about 1 mile. Not gated.
14 homes for sale - from about $575,000 to $2,350,000.

Skyline Bel Air Estates - north on Swan from Sunrise Dr, about 1 mile.
Not gated. 11 single family homes for sale from the mid $400's to $700k.

Skyline Country Club - north on Swan from Sunrise Dr, about 1 mile.
Guard gated, golf course community. 27 town homes and single family homes for sale from the low $300's to about $4.0mil.

Bellas Catalinas - from River Rd. and Alvernon - north about 1 mile to Via Bellas Catalinas. Gated. 6 single family homes for sale, from the low $700's to $1.6mil.

Pinnacle Ridge - from Skyline Dr and Swan Rd - west about 1 mile.
Gated. 5 single family homes from about $800 to $1.2mil.

La Paloma Country Club - from Sunrise Dr. and Swan Rd, west 1 mile.
Guard gated, golf course community. 33 town homes and single family  homes from the high $200's to $3.0mil.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10 - from Sunrise Dr and Hacienda del Sol Rd - south about 1 mile. Guard gated. 15 single family homes from the high $700's to about $3.0mil.

Hacienda Del Sol Estates - from Sunrise Dr and Hacienda del Sol Rd -south about 1 mile. Guard gated. 5 single family homes from the low $700's to $1.3mil.

Catalina Fthls Estates 0 - 10 - These are the original Catalina Foothills estates in the central Foothills, approximately located between Skyline Dr & River Rd, and Hacienda del Sol Rd & Campbell Ave. Except for Catalina Foothills Estates 10, none are gated. 53 homes for sale from the low $400's to $6.0mil.

Pima Canyon Estates - west about 2 miles from Skyline & Campbell, then north on Pima Canyon Dr. Guard gated. 26 homes for sale from $1.1mil to $4.5mil. 

Shadow Hills - south on Orange Grove Rd about 1 mile from Skyline Dr to Camino Arturo. Not gated. 5 single family homes, from the low $400's to about $700k.

'Th-th-th-that's all folks!'

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what's happening in Pima Canyon

Well, between the homes that have been on the market, and the new listings in the last couple of weeks, there are now 26 homes for sale in Pima Canyon, 11 of which are spec homes.

And in the what's happening department, the answer is, not much. There have been just 2 sales in Pima Canyon in the last 6 months - and nothing under contract at the moment. So you'd think that at least some of these owners would be itching for a deal.

UPDATE- The owner of 1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl in Pima Canyon is apparently NOT one of those owners itching for a deal - this afternoon they raised the price from $2,700,000 to $2,788,000.
An interesting strategy, especially when you consider that it's been on the market since March of 06 with nary a taker.

For Sale in Pima Canyon

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