The Catalina Foothills

someone got a good deal at Paloma Ridge

A new house at the AF Sterling development on Sunrise sold today for $475,895, or just $158/sf, a new low in there, I believe. At the time of the sale it was listed for 541,711, down from it's original 624,500 list from April 08.
The 4 other MLS reported sales for Paloma Ridge were all in the
$181 to $189/sf range. So a good deal for these buyers and, maybe, a sign of things to come.

 

Despite the fact that AF Sterling has built some very popular communities in the Foothills, and has a great reputation, I never understood who the target customer was supposed to be for Paloma Ridge.

The homes are of a size and in an area that would be attractive to 2nd home owners and retirees, except, they're 2 story homes, and that's not an attractive configuration with the 50+ set. Though now, late in the game, they are offering to build single story homes in there.

And the yards are really tiny so, for someone with kids, that didn't seem ideal either. So maybe young, childless, urban professionals, who didn't really want urban, or who couldn't find it here in Tucson.

One thing's for sure, good deals and big discounts are attractive to one and all, so that'll be the hook.

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more evidence of two markets in the foothills

Yesterday I mentioned there's an 11 1/2 month supply of homes for sale below the $649k median list price, while above it, there's a 38 month supply.

Now, looking at the 36 homes sold in the last 30 days
- 29 of them sold below the $649k median, for an average of 94% of list price. 
- and only 7 sold above the median, for an average of just 82% of list price. And 3 of those 7 sales were either lender owned or short sales.

I don't see any way around it - dwindling sales, sky-high inventory and an increasing number of foreclosures and short sales - will continue to drag prices down at the upper-end.

So if you're thinking, ahh, this feels like the bottom, think again.

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buyer beware, most of the homes in the Foothills are in HOA's

And just in case you thought HOA's are a bunch of old coots pushing toothless rules, they're not, our own Arizona Daily Star has some common sense advice on buying in an HOA community,

Don't buy home in HOA if you can't heed rules

and don't miss the reader comments

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cross another spec house off the list

5128 N Calle Ladero closed escrow today after an unremarkable 450 days on the market. It was a spec house and a foreclosure, that started life listed for $1,650,000, and ended sold for $920,000. Heck just 44% less. But, lest you get the wrong idea, the list price was down to $998k at the time of the sale.

I think the buyers did well. It's a good location in the old foothills, and a nice new house + a guest house too, @ $215/sf.

And with what looks to be about a $1.2m mortgage delinquency, when all is said and done, we probably didn't pitch in more than $350 - $400,000 on this one.

See it here> 5128 N Calle Ladero
** link will expire on 4/29/09**

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who's hanging tough on prices

With 592 homes for sale, there are 296 for sale above and below the $649,000 median list price.

And below $649k there's about 11 1/2 months of inventory, while
above it, there's about 38 months of inventory.

Yet in the last 14 days, there were 46 price cuts on homes below $649k, and just 19 on homes above it.

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some things never change

In response to my long-winded account in they wanted it, they got it, a reader, who does get it, wrote in to say,

John, my father-in-law who was a real estate agent for many years used to tell me that if you want a really nice house cheap, buy a relatively expensive house in a lower priced area.  If you want a house that will appreciate, buy a cheap house in a higher priced neighborhood.  He died a decade ago; but there are verities in real estate I think.

I like this one in La Paloma

and it fits the bill nicely for 2nd home owners in the Foothills.
It's new on the market in La Paloma, 2482 sq. ft., 3 beds/2.5 baths,
single story, built in 2005, listed for $725,000, with wonderful mountain and golf course views.

As recently as last spring homes like this, with mountain and golf course views in La Paloma, were in big demand and short supply.

And now, even though the supply remains limited, they have not escaped the woes of the real estate slowdown. They're selling, but more slowly and for less money than in the past.

This owner/seller paid list price, $769,000, in 2006.
And now, in an all too rare nod to the market having gone down,
not up, listed it for $44,000 less than he paid.

That may or may not do the trick but, when a buyer sees that, they see a seller who is prepared to deal with the realities of the market, and who doesn't expect the buyer to make up for what they lost in a down market.

It's a beauty, see it here> 6202 N Placita Pajaro

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There's a familiar story in most real estate crashes: First the buyers vanish, then inventory piles up, and only then -- normally after a long and painful process of resistance -- do sellers get real and drop prices.

from an article in today's Wall Street Journal,
Hard Times on Nantucket

Ok let's see, at the high-end, the buyers have vanished, the inventory is piled up but, the question is, where are we in the long and painful process,

where oh where are all those million $$ homes

For all you home shoppers, with limited time but big budgets, who are going to be out scouring the Foothills this weekend, here's a handy, time saving guide to the top 10 communities with the greatest concentration of million $$+ homes for sale. 

1. Pima Canyon - the hands down winner with 24 for sale and, with homes priced from $1,099,000 to $4,499,000, something for everyone

2. In 2nd place - Ventana CC - 17 for sale, from $1,150,000 to  $3,990,000, and a golf course too.

3. Catalina Foothills Estates 10 -14 homes from $1.2 to $3.125

4. Catalina Foothills Estates (0 - 9) - 11 homes, $1.150 to $5.950**,the 2nd highest priced for sale in the Foothills.

5. With 10 each, Skyline CC and Alta Vista, are tied for 5th place.
   10 in Skyline from $1.2 to $3.995
   10 in Alta Vista from $1.095 to $2.250

6. La Paloma - 6, from $1,150,000 to $2,785,000

7. Cobblestone - 5, from $1,395,000 to $3,975,000

8. And 4 each in the Canyons and Sabino Mountain
    Canyons - $2,495,000 to $6,450,000* the high price winner
    Sabino Mountain - $1,199,000 to $1,849,000

9. And a 6 way tie for 9th place, with 3 each- in Bellas Catalinas, Cobo Catalina Hills, Coronado Foothills, Finisterra, Foothills 2 and Sin Vacas.

10. and for the adventurous, 11 homes priced from $1,049,000 to $2,600,000 in un-subdivided areas scattered here and there throughout the Foothills.

Note - given that there are 158 for sale, and just 10 sold
($1.0 to $1.4) since Jan 1, there ought to be some deals out there.

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anyone looking for 8100 sq ft on 5.5 acres in the heart of the old foothills

OK, OK first come, first served -just line up over there.
Yours for $2,390,000, and it now says 'with bank approval',
so I'm guessing, because the listing is not clear on this, that it's now a short sale. **until yesterday it was listed for $2,250,000, odd that they'd up the price.

It Sold in 2005 for $2,200,000.
And was re-listed in August 08 for $2,590,000, but with just one acre. The missing 4 four acres, though not listed, were available for an additional $1,400,000.

So for $3,990,000, or a modest 81% increase, you could get the same thing they got for $2.2 in 05. Such a deal. Astonishing that it didn't sell. And yet another example of being led down the path to a distress sale with a big assist from over pricing.

Last November I wrote about this place> a big dose of reality

It's quite the estate, very posh, very private, of the, they don't build 'em like this anymore variety.

See it here> 5151 N Calle Ladero

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they wanted it, they got it

And they were willing to pay a bit over list to get it,
so I hope they're happy with it.
It, is a short sale house in River Hill Estates that closed escrow yesterday after more than a year on the market.
 

List price $725,000/Sold for $745,000 or $182/sf.
Originally listed for $1,175,000 in October 07.
Built 2005 - at the height of the frenzy - it's 4081 sq. ft., 4 beds/3 baths, 1 acre, pool/spa, etc.

And like other homes that were slapped up in those frenzied times, they didn't pay much attention to location, location, location.
This was built in River Hills Estates, and there's nothing wrong with River Hills Estates, as long as you're not expecting to do well on a million$+ spec project.

There's one other home for sale in there, it's listed at $520k, been on the market for 300 days. And going all the way back to January 2006, there's just one other sale, and that was for $395k in December 06.

That's it, so no comps for a home like this, not at $1.175 or even at $745k. According to Pima county data - there are 42 homes in that community, and the average year built is 1985, average sq footage = 2891, and the average sale price $413,940. A far cry from this latest sale.

Coming to market with it in October 07, they'd missed the frenzy by 18 months or more, and, at that point, hoping to peddle a $1,175,000 house in a community of $400 to $500k homes, was like hoping to win the lottery.

At $745k, I'd say the new owners did OK, they got a lot of house for the money. But it still sits in a community of smaller, older, cheaper homes and, there's no way around it, that's going to hold this one back.

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what was I saying about even the Joesler's are sitting it out,

No more. This one went to contract today, yeah!

Listed at $1,990,000, or $383/sf as listed.
Built 1935, 5187 sq. ft., on 2.1 hilltop acres. It's a major Joesler.

see it here> 5075  N Calle La Vela

and so much for even the Joesler's are sitting it out

And chances are, it'll be the highest priced sale in the Foothills since last October, and one of the top 2 or 3 highest in the last 12 months. From 1935 and Joesler's still knocking 'em dead.

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with all the homes for sale in the Foothills, we're sure to find lots of great choices, right

Yeah, sure, of course, plenty to choose from, are you kidding.
With 593 single family homes for sale in the Foothills, and slow sales, you'd think so, wouldn't you.

Let's look at a hypothetical/typical buyer looking for a home in the Foothills with a price range of $800,000 to $950,000.

-at $800,000 to $950,000 there are 45 homes for sale, more than  plenty, too many you say, heh.
-yes of course, 4 bedrooms & 3 baths - 37 homes
-3000 to 4000 sq ft - no prob, 24 for sale
-you'd like about an acre, let's say .80 or more - 16 gorgeous homes
-and in District 16 schools - OK, 10 homes, That's Perfect!
-and you'd like to be in 85718 zip - down to 6
-single story, yes of course- that's 4 really great homes to choose from
-oh, and a pool - OK let's go, with 3 homes, we should be able to wrap this whole thing up this afternoon.

After putting in some very typical basic criteria, here are
the three homes left standing  Which one would you like.

And we didn't even get into the style or the age of the home, whether it was in a gated or non-gated area, city or mountain views, and other typical buyer preferences. And of course, you want to get a great deal on that house too, right.

It happens every time. Once you start breaking down all the homes for sale in the Foothills, which run the gamut from under $200k to over $6 mil, you end up with too few, not too many, to choose from. Even now.

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I was making a list and checking it twice, looking for short sales and REO's, that looked nice

when a reader wrote in asking about the profile of REO's and short sales, and whether or not they were due to problems at the high-end of the market.

Looking through the 34 homes in the Foothills listed as short sales or REO's, as far as I can tell, they don't fit into any one neat profile.

At the high-end, the greatest number and most obvious of the distress sales have been from spec building, followed closely by the spec-renovate & flip crowd. All of it gone bad in a declining market and, almost always, helped along by hanging on to peak of market pricing, long after the market had peaked.
Ignore the market - go with wishful thinking.

At the low to mid price range, how owners got to where they are, is not as clear cut. Not to me anyway. Buying in an up market, mortgaging yourself to the hilt, and then finding you've got to sell in a down market, with your home worth less than you paid, is the typical scenario, and I'm sure it applies here as well. And though there was much less of it than at the high-end, and very little spec building, there was some spec-renovate & flip going on in the mid price market. And mortgaged to the hilt.

And then there were those lucky owners who were comfortably ensconced in homes bought well before the price spiral who, counseled by mortgage professionals, turned their homes into piggy banks by re-mortgaging at new inflated values.

And so here we are,with a current crop of 33 short sale/REO's for sale
**link will expire on 4/23/09**

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the beat goes on in Foothills home sales

This is supposed to be our high-season for home sales in the Foothills, but with just 20 homes sold in the last 14 days, and most of them at the low to low mid range, you'd never know it.  

See how it compares to sales in the same 14 day period in years past

Year	homes Sold	Avg Sold $$	Med Sold $$	Low Price	High Price	Avg $/sf
2009	20	$515,315	$431,000	$191,000	$1.2m	$175
2008	26	$735,512	$565,500	$299,000	$2.250m	$241
2007	30	$710,056	$614,500	$270,000	$1.850m	$231
2006	32	$742,966	$667,500	$194,000	$2.325m	$257

vs 593 homes currently for sale, listed for an average of $922,470, and a median of $635,000.

And in about 3 months the season will be over, particularly for the high-end, where traditionally, almost twice as many homes sell in
Jan to June as in July to December. And then what.

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short sales & REO's gaining ground in the foothills

For 2008 I count 30 single family homes sold as a REO or short sale, or less than 6% of total Foothills home sales. A mere pittance.

But so far this year, that pittance has grown to 22%, with 20 REO's or short sales in this short time, out of 91 total sales since Jan 1.

At that level, short sales and REO's, with their drag on the mood of the market as well as on prices, are becoming a more formidable consideration for home buyers.

Of course normal, non-distress home sellers would also be wise to consider these distress sales in their pricing strategies, but for that I'm not holding my breath.

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tell me, after almost a year on the market, why hasn't this nice house in Alta Vista sold

Well let's see. They bought it for $1,050,000, at the peak of the market in July 2006.
And defying all odds they listed it for $1,350,000 (a 29% increase) in March 2008. But during that time prices had decreased about 13%, leaving a 40%+ spread between their price and the market price.

Ignoring other variables - like the fact that the global economy had yet to crash, and, that at that time there were many more buyers in the market - if they'd priced it in accord with the 13% market drop, the numbers tell us that, priced at about $950,000, they would have had a good chance of selling it. But that was then.

Now a year later, the list price is down to $1,150,000 (just 9.5% more than they paid at the 2006 peak), but now the market's down about 26%. And 26% off their $1,050,000 purchase price is $770,000. Or about a $380,000 spread between list and market.

Any takers.

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more good news from Eleven Arches

That is, if you're a buyer

After 2 grueling years on the market, a spec house in Eleven Arches listed for $2,300,000, sold today for $1,200,000.

And this comes on the heels of another Eleven Arches spec house
give-away that went for $900,000 off a $1,800,000 list price.
I mentioned it here> a very short sale on a Foothills spec house

These have exceeded my lowest expectations. Eight or nine months ago, when I was advising that the hottest deals in the Foothills were to be found in spec houses, never did I expect to see them going for 50 cents on the dollar.

These two sold for $143 and $184/sf, which is not an inspiring comp if you're trying to sell anywhere in the vicinity Eleven Arches or, maybe even, anywhere in the Foothills. What's next.

See them here> Two specs in Eleven Arches

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it's rare enough that it's worth mentioning

Pssst, a home sold for over list price.
Well just a tad, but nevertheless, listed for $549k, it sold for $550, and in just 13 days.

4847 N Circulo Bujia, Tucson 85718
2759 sq. ft, built 1984, 3 bedrooms/2 baths,

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the next hot-spot for fixer uppers in the Tucson Foothills

Not that anyone's looking for them right now, but if they were, they'd find that good lots in the Foothills are almost nonexistent. And this has been true for at least five or six years now, which explains why most of the spec homes built in the last few years were built on not-very-desirable, marginal lots. And, I'd venture, explains why they've had such a hard time selling.

When real estate in the Foothills started to take off about 5 years ago I was betting the homes in Skyline Bel Air were ripe for, and would see, investment in rebuilding and renovation.   

Skyline Bel Air is in a prime location a half mile north of Swan and Sunrise, and adjacent to Skyline CC. And it's stock of vintage homes, built in the 60's and 70's, sit on some of the nicest, most private, city and mountain view lots in the Foothills. But most of the homes are old and dated and in need of major renovation or, in some cases, are better off as knockdowns. And while there was some investment in Skyline Bel Air, because of the real estate bust, it was choked off before it had a chance to really get going.

But when the market does come back, and people start in earnest looking for their place in the Foothills, I think they'll be more careful about what they buy, and more concerned with quality and lasting value. And I think location, location, location is going to, once again, be a bigger draw than a big box home filled with frills and squeezed in by the side of the road somewhere. So once again, I'm betting on Skyline Bel Air.

Right now there are 17 homes for sale in Skyline Bel Air, from $399,000 to $699,000, and all but 4 are under, some well under, $200/sf, asking price. And just 4 sold in the last 6 months, and they went for $347k to $641k, though the one at $641 had already been renovated. Excluding that $641k sale, they went for an average of $144/sf, and that's on a private acre +/- lot, that's not cheek to jowl by the side of the road.

See the 17 for sale in Skyline Bel Air
**link will expire on 4/17/09**

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even the Joesler's are sitting it out

Weeding through the homes that are listed as Joesler-esque,
Joesler-like, and Joesler inspired, we're left with four actual Joesler's for sale in the Foothills. And while, in my opinion, none of them are bargain priced, they are Joesler's, and therefore unique and special and irreplaceable. But still they sit.

And I'm a Joesler fan, so I'm happy to spread the word.

Take your pick, 4 Joesler's For Sale in the Tucson Foothills

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flirting with fame

In the last two days I've gotten calls from The Wall Street Journal and True West magazine, and both of them were looking to feature a couple of the homes I've mentioned on the blog.

WSJ was interested in the house at 5280 E Mission Hill Dr, in Skyline CC, and the managing editor of True West contacted me about doing a feature on the wonderful Lee Marvin Residence built by Josias Joesler

Both are listed by other agents, so I passed on their names, etc. and slumped back into obscurity. But surely, if Tucson's not already on everyone's lips, it soon will be.

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here's a look at the rise and fall of single family home prices in the Tucson Foothills

Year	# of Homes Sold	Avg Sold Price	Med Sold Price	# Value all Homes Sold
2001	849	$376,513	$305,000	$319,659,457
2002	846	$395,779	$320,750	$334,829,336
2003	920	$417,332	$351,000	$383,945,625
2004	988	$501,370	$410,000	$495,353,701
2005	980	$619,207	$520,000	$606,822,621
2006	727	$704,040	$572,000	$511,837,360
2007	618	$676,411	$540,000	$418,022,023
2008	531	$614,164	$515,000	$326,121,110
2009	82	$525,968	$442,500	$43,129,400

The rise, 2001 - 2006, was +87% for both Average and Median prices.
The fall, 2006 - 2009, is -25% Average/-22% for Median prices.

And not only are prices down, the # of homes sold thru 2008 is also off a whopping 46% from it's 2004 peak and, as things are going, 2009 looks to be on track for another new low.

So in case you've been uncertain, or had any delusions about prices and sales over the years, there they are. So ask whatever you wish - base your asking price on what you paid, or what you've put into it, or what some fantasy tells you it's worth - but don't plan on getting it unless you happen to be in the vicinity of 2004/2005 prices.

Confronted with unreasonable asking prices, buyers have little sympathy for, and, are not about to make up for, what sellers have lost in the downturn of the real estate market.

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with sales at the upper-end so abysmal, what does the $0 to $500,000 Foothills market look like

Well, it looks pretty good. At $0 to $500,000 there are 202 homes for sale, and 26 sold in the last 30 days - so months of inventory is now down to under 8 months, and falling.

And there are 47 homes under contract, so the future looks bright too.

Seeing this, I have to wonder if I shouldn't re-focus my energies and concentrate on the lower end of the market. Because at the mid to upper-end, signs of life are few and far between, and I don't see it getting much better anytime soon. So I'm thinking, maybe enough is enough already.

At $750,000 to $2.0mil we have 198 homes for sale, but just 6 sold in the last 30 days, leaving us with 33 months of inventory.
So we have the same number of homes for sale as at the low-end, but with 77% fewer sales.

Then again, at the upper-end, while I may not put too much food on the table, at least there's not much risk of running out of homes to sell anytime soon. 

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have things really changed this much

Three years ago, in March 06, this very nice house near Sabino Canyon was listed for $735,000 and sold in 5 days for $730,000,
or $274/sf. I remember it well, I was able to show it once, and then pfff, in a flash, it was gone.

 

And just one year later the new owners put it up for sale again, this time, for $850,000. And with no trouble at all, it sold again for it's $850,000 list price, or $319/sf, in 44 days.

 

But then apparently something unexpected happened. Because the new owners who had just paid $850,000 for it, turned around and put it back on the market just 2 days after closing escrow.
Honest, 2 days. They closed on it on 7/12/07 and re-listed it on 7/14/07, and they listed it for the same $850,000 they paid.
So now it's the 3rd time on the market in about one year.

And given it's recent and quick sales history, you'd assume there's something to this house, that it had some real appeal, because it wasn't just one, but two buyers who came along and found it irresistible. And you'd think that once again someone would come along, maybe someone who'd missed out on it the last time, and snap it up. Maybe even make a deal, because apparently, the latest owners needed to get rid of it quickly.

But 3rd time was not the charm. It sat on the market for 180 days, unsold. And they rented it for a while, and meanwhile, apparently fell behind on their payments, because in December of 08 it was listed as a lender owned for $606,250.

And after a few price cuts, it left the market today, unsold, listed for $553,773, or $208/sf. That's 35% less than it sold for in July of 07, and still no one wanted it.

Aurora Loan Svcs Llc owns it now, and I'm sure they'll be offering it up again, maybe for even less.
6000  N Via Tres Patos, Tucson, AZ  85750
2658 sq. ft., 4 bed/2.5 baths, built 1992, one level, 1.1 acre lot, with pool & spa, 

Later the same day  It's come back on the market, same price, same everything, see it here> 6000  N Via Tres Patos
*link will expire on 4/14** & if you find that the photos in the listing leave a lot to the imagination, please note, they're not mine.

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buyers and sellers are still out of sync

Looking at the latest new listings, the homes that have gone to contract and the homes that have sold in the last 14 days - there continues to be a price gap between what buyers are buying and sellers are offering for sale. In the last 14 days;

69 new listings in the Tucson Foothills
-$226/sf, avg $$/sf
-$725,996 average list price/$600,000 median list price

31 homes have gone to contract
-$184/sf, avg at list price
-$592,713 average list price/$449,000 median list price

And 16 have sold;
-$172/sf avg sold price
-$479,094 average sold price/$402,500 median sold price

So for average list & sold prices - new listings are priced 22% higher than the list price of those that have gone to contract, and a whopping 51% higher than those that have sold.

And for for $/sf costs it's a similar story.
New listings 22% higher than the list price of those that have gone to contract, and 31% higher than those sold.

Median prices show a similar pattern with homes under contract priced 33% less than the price of new listings, and homes selling for 49% less than the price of new listings.

But on the bright side, these latest numbers do show some improvement from the overall market - for which the avg list is $929,923 for active listings, and $545,829 for listings under contract.

But the rubber meets the road in sold prices and, for the last 14 days, they're down to $479,094, vs $502,990 for the last 90 days.

So a mixed bag, but worth watching for further improvement, which, one way or another, I (hesitantly) think we're headed for.

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clearing out the bargain bin, we hope

Two more distress sales, one a short sale, the other a REO, went to contract yesterday.

Having been down this 'going to contract' path five times now, and falling out four times, 5759 N Campbell Ave is an old hand at this.
And it's got to be excruciatingly tedious for everyone involved because, each time it's gone to contract, it's sat in escrow for four or more weeks, only to then return to the market unsold. Some of this is probably attributable to endless dilly-dallying by the lender, but I also wonder if there's something else gumming up the works.
See it here> 5th times the charm
**link will expire on April11**

And then there's 6360 N Placita Alta Reposa, a lender owned home in Alta Vista, that's been on the market for eons.
And though I didn't identify it at the time, it was so perfect, that, I used it as my Model Home in > Foreclosure for Dummies 
And here's the listing> 6360 N Placita Alta Reposa
**listing link will expire on April 11**

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there goes the neighborhood

In October of 06 this little gem sold for $850,000. And it sold again today, this time for $495,000.

And isn't it ironic, when it sold for $850,000, it did so in 40 days.
To get it off their hands this time at $495, it took about a year and a half. And yes this time round it was a LENDER OWNED FORECLOSURE, REO, PRICED TO SELL. So that has a lot to do with it, and of course it started out listed at $899,999, & cut cut cut cut cut cut cut to $589,977 SOLD for $495,000.

It was a very nice house on 2 acres in the Foothills. I looked at it in 06 to buy myself, but wouldn't pay the $850, and the listing agent was convinced she'd get $850, and I knew she was right, but not from me.

See it here> 4860  E Salida Del Sol Pl
**link will expire on April 11,**

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let's hope it sticks this time

A home in Cobblestone, at 3333  E Cobblestone Pl, went to contract today priced at $1,895,000. This is the second go-round for this house. It went to contract in December and fell out in February, and now it's back in again, so there must be something here that people like. Could it be price, price, price.

Originally listed for $2,995,000 in 07, it never saw any action until the price got down to under $2.0, and now in a matter of a few months it's been to escrow twice, while so many others continue to sit it out.

See it here> 3333  E Cobblestone Pl, $1,895,000, or $228/sf -
(cheap-cheap-cheap for Cobblestone), 8311 sq ft, 6/bedrooms/5.5 baths, built 1993, and a top to bottom new kitchen, and travertine floors throughout, plus views,

 

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do you pay a premium for a home in a golf course community like La Paloma, Ventana or Skyline CC

I had that conversation today with someone from out of town who is interested in buying a home in the Foothills. I told them they would pay a premium for a home in the three gated/golf course communities. Because they're private, guard-gated, beautifully landscaped, well maintained, and they have golf courses running through them. And because of that, they're exclusive and prestigious and, some people are all too happy to pay extra for those amenities. Others aren't.

And except for La Paloma, which somehow keeps coming up with new ways to expand, they're not making any more land in the these communities.

But they didn't ask what the premium is, if they had I would have had to guess. So I thought I'd take a look and compare the golf communities to non-gated Foothills homes and try to get an idea of what the premium might be. Here's what the numbers look like for homes sold over the past three months.

NON-GATED
Average Sold Price = $451,191
Median Sold Price = $385,000
Average $/sf = $173

La P, Skyline & Ventana CC's
Average Sold Price = $553,463 - 22% more than non-gated
Median Sold Price = $575,000 - 49% more
Average $/sf = $223 - 29% more than non-gated

So there appears to be a premium, though looking at the numbers I still couldn't say exactly what it is. But for lack of more concrete evidence, I would suggest that the $/sf costs might be the best guide. I also tried pulling up similar homes that have sold recently, in the golf course communities and in non-gated areas, to make a more direct comparison, but because sales have been slow, I wasn't able to find comparable homes.

Also, if you're comparing the golf communities to, let's say, the Canyons, Cobblestone, Pima Canyon or Cat 10, then you're pretty much on equal footing, because you can easily pay as much, or more, for a home in those places as in the golf communities.

The other thing to consider is that HOA fees in gated communities are always more than in non-gated areas. That's because the gates have to be maintained and the guards paid, and the streets within gated communities are private and therefore maintained by the HOA.
Plus there's common area insurance and landscaping fees and, if there's a community pool/spa or other facilities, those are also paid by the HOA.

If you're considering a home in the golf communities, currently there are 86 to choose from, priced from $290,000 to $3,995,000, which pretty much reflects the range of prices in the overall Foothills market.

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gloomy prospects for the high-end Foothills market,

Or, believe it or not, these are the good old days,
At $1.5 and up there are 85 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills, and 17 of those are vacant spec homes. And most of the spec homes, and many of the non-specs as well, have been on the market for a year or more, some 2 years or more. And not one home priced at $1.5 and up has sold in the last 3 months. The last one sold about 5 months ago.

And of course many owners and builders are now wishing they'd cut their prices to realistic levels, last year or the year before, when their chances of selling were so much better. And now, many have dropped their prices to what might have worked in the good old days of 07 and early 08. But this is 09, and those prices are just fond memories.

So if it feels as if you've cut to the bone, open your eyes and look around, look at the inventory vs sales, look at the economy and the markets. And keep in mind, most of these homes are discretionary purchases, made when times are good and people's portfolios are flush. If you do, there's no mistaking it, this is not the bottom, not nearly.

Then look ahead 3 or 4 months, and imagine your prospects in July and August, when it's 105, and prices are down another X%, and you haven't had a showing in 2 months. And you're not likely to see another buyer until who knows when. And by then, with more foreclosures and short sales and who knows what our government has cooked up, where will prices be then.

Sound gloomy, you bet. But that, unfortunately, is how it is.
Whether you agree or not, I'd love to hear your side.

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Sin Vacas sees it's first foreclosure

The first one I've been able to find in there anyway.

7561 Calle Sin Desengano turned up as a foreclosure listing today.
And it looks as if it took the usual route of overpricing to help it get there. It was first listed for $1,880,000 in April 2006 and, during it's 285 days on the market, never got below $1,550,000.

But what's unusual here and especially sad, is that these look to be the original owners who had the house built in 1997 - how did this happen. Well it also looks as if they re-mortgaged it in 06 to the tune of $1,305,000. Ah-ha.

Now it can be yours for $1,145,000 or less. That's $197/sf.
The listing calls it a Mediterranean, built in 97, it's 5793 sq. ft.,
4 bedrooms/4.5 baths, pool/spa, and a one owner home. I think.
And from the looks of it, a very nice setting.

See it here> 7561 Calle Sin Desengano

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just in the nick of time

Phew! Really, Awesome Timing.
Just listed for $5,000,000 or $722/sf, and a spec home no less.
Yep. We're a little thin in that category, so hopefully this'll hold back the hordes of hungry home buyers looking for $5,000,000 homes in the Foothills.

It's new, it's in the Canyons, it's 6924 sq. ft., and it's still under construction so, if you hurry, you may still have time to choose your color scheme.

7454 N Secret Canyon Dr, Tucson, AZ  85718
**unless someone reminds me to update it, this link will expire on
4/9/09** then again, by then, this house may be long gone.

Best Wishes, and welcome to the 2009 real estate market.

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Yeah! 2 down in La Paloma

Now listed at $1,149,000, 6140 N Via Presilla in La Paloma, went to contract today after a 480 day slog on the market.
480 days because, for most of that time, it was way over-priced.

But back in January, when the price got down to $1,149,000,
I wrote about it- here's a house in La Paloma that I like.
Why beat around the bush. In that post are the details and more pictures. Somebody got a really nice house with terrific mountain views, in La Paloma, at what I'll bet was a good price. But for that, we'll just have to wait and see. But I like this house, and I'm surprised it took this long. And because it did, I'm quite sure, the owner/investor lost a few bucks on this deal.

On the other hand, I didn't expect 6321 N Placita Arista to sell anytime soon. 207 DOM. It's also in La Paloma, and sold today for 940,000, or $259/sf, listed at $999,000, reduced from it's original $1,195,000 list price.
See it here> 6321 N Placita Arista 

So I'm 0 for 2 in La P, but that makes 3 higher-end homes gone in the last two days. Let's hope.

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looking for the sweet spot in $/sf costs

Here's a handy guide to the single family homes for sale in the Foothills, along with how many have sold in the past 3 months, broken down by $/sf costs.

-$100 to $149/sf
27 for sale, 27 sold = 3 months inventory

-$150 to $199/sf
168 for sale, 37 sold = 13 months inventory

-$200 to $249/sf
155 for sale, 23 sold = 20 months inventory

-$250 to $299/sf
94 for sale, 9 sold = 31 months inventory

$300 to $349/sf
47 for sale, 2 sold = 70 months inventory

$350 to $399/sf
28 for sale, 1 sold = 84 months inventory

$400 to $449/sf
19 for sale, 0 sold = TBD months of inventory

$450 & Up $/sf
26 for sale, 0 sold = TBD months of inventory

What we're seeing here is not strictly a reflection of fewer sales at higher $/sf costs, but also, of fewer sales of high-end homes. Because generally, higher-end homes are also priced at higher $/sf costs. But take your pick of any price range, from lower to upper, and you're sure to see wide variations in $/sf costs within each. And more and more this is what buyers are looking at.

In working with buyers, no one has ever said to me that they're looking for a home that's priced at such and such $'s/sf. Never.

But once we get into it, and get to the point of comparing one home to another, $/sf costs enter the picture at center stage. More than ever, buyers are using $/sf costs as a handy guide to help them compare homes and determine value.

And once they get the lay of the land and begin to see what's what, most buyers won't even consider homes that are priced beyond a reasonable $/sf cost, both for the type of home they're looking for, and, relative to today's, not yesterday's, market.

UPDATE Crunching the numbers even further, a reader wrote in,
Loved your $/sf comparisons.  Here is another take on your numbers. The middle of the market in $/sf is the $200-249 range. 
As it happens there are exactly 195 homes priced below that range and 195 home priced above that range.
Sales at prices/sf below the mid-range = 64, sales at prices/sf above the mid-range = 12

Makes it all even more clear cut, Thanks Chip,

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from $1,650,000 to $998,000 in 450 days

5128 N Calle Ladero went to contract this afternoon as a foreclosure sale.

Originally listed at $1,650,000 and now, after 450 agonizing days on the market, I imagine they're going to get something less than the $998,000 list price. A lender owned spec home, 4272 sf, 5 bedrooms/5 baths, including a 525 sf guest house, that's $233/sf as listed. 
 

And this one has the dubious distinction of being from that select group of spec homes that have sprouted on land split off from a 1930's Joesler estate.

See it here> 5128 N Calle Ladero
** the link will expire on 4/7/09**

Given the right price, spec homes are now seeing some action.

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a very short sale on a Foothills spec house

3550 E Camino A Los Vientos, a spec house, sold for 50% off list price. Listed since March 07, and sometime between then and now converted to a short sale, the latest list price was $1,800,000, and it just sold for $900,000.

This is the behemoth you see on the west side of Hacienda del Sol Rd at Eleven Arches, that looks to me like a spaceship when the light is just right.

It was priced as high as $2,450,000 and as low as $1,300,000, and then up and down and everywhere in between.

4885 sq ft, @ $900,000 brings it in at very tidy $184/sf, awfully good for brand new, and with a front row seat on Hacienda del Sol Rd.

This is the kind of stuff they were putting up back when homes were flying off the shelf, but failed to make the cut once things settled down and everyone came to their senses.

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The Arizona Daily Star tactfully calls the high-end market battered and bruised

This housing downturn is so vast that even the high-end custom market is getting battered and bruised.

The Star didn't mention this, but see if this sounds like battered and bruised to you - at the current rate of sales it would take 79 months - that's 6 1/2 years- to sell the inventory of $1,000,000+ homes in the northwest, and 57 months in the Foothills.

133 for sale in the northwest (at $1.0m & UP) & 5 sold in last 3 months. 152 for sale in the Foothills & 8 sold in the last 3 months.
So if you've got a high-end home for sale, this is the market and, as you can see, it's a wee-bit worse than just battered and bruised.

And by the way, it's not 'even' the high-end market, it 'is' the high-end market. The low to middle range of the market is doing reasonably well relative to the high-end, not the other way round.

From the Star Last year's 'Parade' homes go begging

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Foreclosure for Dummies

With examples from real life

-first, get in just under the wire and buy a house for $757,500 in June 2006, right as the market is starting it's downward slide
-13 months later, after the slowdown has had some time to really take hold, list the house for $925,000, or 22% more than you paid (buyers have been known to offer less than list price, plus you've got closing costs and who knows what, and you want a little profit, so you need a little cushion)
-then watch in amazement as buyers show no interest, but don't let it get to you
-blame your agent
-OK, give in a little and show you're a fair guy who's willing to deal - reduce the price to $899, then $859, last offer, $825 anyone.  Screw that, back up to $850
-watch as market conditions get really bad, as sales dry up, prices keep sliding and credit disappears
-put VERY MOTIVATED SELLER in listing description, usually that'll get 'em
-hang tough at $850, a measly 12% more than you paid, hey, you got closing costs
-you've gone this far, don't give up now, the right buyer is out there
-grab new listing flyer from box at front of house as moving van full of your stuff pulls away
-SOLD AS-IS, NO WARRANTIES, NO CLUE, NO SPDS, *FORECLOSURE*REO*BANK OWNED*LENDER OWNED*
$649,000, $639,000, $629,000, $619,000, $599,000, $590,000,
$581,000, $569,000, $509,000
-Kiss it all goodbye

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a lot of changes in MLS listings on Fridays

and some of it is meant to put on the best face for the rush of weekend home shoppers
Here are a few that caught my eye;

4730 N CAMINO SUMO was re-listed today with a nice price cut.
It left the market at $735k and came back at $649,000. This is in
Cat 10 and, by many thousands of $$$'s, is the least expensive house for sale in there. The next one up is priced at $949K and, with 16 for sale, they're evenly spaced up to $3,125,000.

And in this corner, still hanging tough after 144 DOM is 4310 E Pinnacle Ridge Pl Re-listed, but at the same old $849,000 price tag.

Listed almost three years ago for $910,000, 4850 E Winged Foot Dr in Skyline CC finally went to contract today. During the course of those three years, the price was reduced and reduced, but never quick or deep enough to keep abreast of the falling market - until the last cut from $699 to $599k. And that did it. But before that happened, apparently they - the owner and agent - thought it was soo low priced that it might appear to be a short sale, so the listing noted - Not a short sale.

Also under contract is the house at 6924 E Gate Ridge Pl.
I wrote about this house last month, and because of it's new lower price I upped it's odds of selling - it started at $1.6m in June of 08 and after many cuts was down to $999K, which I thought might work, then for some reason they raised it to $1.050. But it still worked.

And needing a little more attention, though they won't get it from me, a Foothills home owner raised their price from $500,000 to $500,001.
I kid you not.

And an actual New Listing of an interesting looking house at
4445 E Saranac Dr. Unique is the word I think, and uniquely
low-priced too at 181/sf, for a new listing. 

And taking another shot at it, this time for $1,290,000, is
6463 N Ventana Canyon Dr. Though with a more meaningful price cut this time, from $1,399,000.

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a real price reduction in Skyline CC

This house in Skyline CC that a few weeks ago I said was my new favorite, is still my favorite but better yet, instead of $2.2mil, it's now $1.850. 
And while that may not sound like a steal - btw originally listed for $2.9mil - if you're looking in that price range and you like Skyline, you might want to check it out. It's pretty fantastic.

It's new, never been lived in, but it's also not a spec house.
It started life as a custom build, but upon completion the owner was not able to move in, so he's put it up for sale.

Here's the listing > 5280 E Mission Hill Dr Tucson, AZ 85718
And no, it's not my listing, I wish it were. Better yet, it should be my house.

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hey yo, look at me

Not willing to drop their price, but wanting the added attention one might get with a price drop, a house in Catalina Foothills Estates 10 today did a 'hey yo, look at me' and dropped their price all of $7000, that's from $1,800,000 to $1,793,000. OK ready, clap-clap, duly noted.

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the good news is there are 74 homes under contract in the Foothills

but 67 of them are huddled at under $800,000

with just 7 lucky one's at $800k and up

So 90.5% of the homes going to contract are priced under $800k, and just 9.5% over $800.

Or looked at another way,

with 343 for sale under $800k, the 67 under contract represent
19.5% of the total inventory

while

with 213 for sale at $800k and up, the 7 under contract represent just 3.2% of the total inventory

And if recent activity is any judge, it doesn't seem to be getting any better, quite the contrary. As I mentioned the other day, of the 21 homes that have gone to contract most recently- in the past 14 days, the highest priced was $699,000. So not even a dent in the $800k+ inventory.

If this keeps up, I'm afraid that in 3 months or so, these will look like the good old days.

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more on the lop-sided sales mix

It's really more than just a lop-sided sales mix. What it's become is two markets here in the Foothills. The under and over $800,000 markets.

Under $800k is doing OK, over $800 is not.

Of the 41 homes sold in the last 30 days- 34 sold for under $800k.
And of those 34, 7 sold at list price or above, and the 34 sold for an average of 94.9% of list price.
With 343 homes listed under $800k, and 34 sold, we end up with 10 months of inventory.

In the over $800k market- 7 homes sold in the last 30 days.
None sold at list or over, in fact all sold at quite a bit under, and the 7 sold for an average of just 85.9% of list price.
With 213 homes listed at $800k and up, and 7 sold, we end up with more than 30 months of inventory.

Two markets, and day by day, the differences between them become more exaggerated.

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yes but what are buyers going for now

If you've gone through my February home sales report and you're still eager for more, here's more.

In that report I talked a lot about the lop-sided sales mix, i.e., many homes selling at the low-end and few at the high-end.

So I checked to see if in the last two weeks we've had a previously undetected surge in activity at the high-end. We haven't.

The median list price for the 555 Foothills homes for sale is $649,000.

And in the last two weeks 21 homes have gone to contract- priced from $200,000 all the way up to $699,000. But just that one at $699,000 is over the median list price, the other 20 are at $585,000 and under, most way under.

And this is March. So if your home is listed at the high-end and you've been waiting for just the right moment to drop your price way down and break from the pack, remember, June is right around the corner.

And in case you didn't realize it, almost twice as many high-end homes sell between January and June as in July to December.
So time's a wastin'.

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Foothills home sales for February

The numbers are in and here's what they look like;
February single family home sales by price range,
including MOI - months of inventory.
+ YTD Average & Median prices vs same period 2008

Price	# Homes Sold	# For Sale	MOI
$0 - $500k	24	194	8.4
$500 - $750k	10	139	13.9
750 -  $1.0	3	73	24.3
$1.0 - 1.250m	4	30	7.5
$1.250 & UP	0	124	??
Totals	41	560	13.6
YTD	Jan - Feb 09	Jan - Feb 08	+/- %
Average List $$	$574,904	$797,549	-28%
Average Sold $$	$527,165	$743,383	-29%
Median List $$	$483,450	$554,000	-12.7%
Median Sold $$	$450,050	$530,000	-15%
$$ Value Sold	$34,792,900	$54,266,976	-35%
# homes Sold	66	73	-9.6%

While a couple of price ranges are doing OK, with MOI relatively close to normal levels, high inventory and few sales in others has resulted in high to nose-bleed high MOI.

And at $1.250 and Up, since it's all supply and no demand at this point, there's no telling how it will end. But I think it's safe to say it's not likely to be a happy ending.

And looking at the average and median prices, your first impulse may be to attribute that big drop to lower (falling) home prices. And while some of it is the result of lower prices, a good bit of it is also because more homes are selling at the low end of the market, and very few at the high end. And average and median prices have been dragged down by this lop-sided sales mix.

In the 2008 Jan - Feb period, 22 homes sold for $800k or more.
7 of those sold for more than $1.5m, with 3 sales clustered just above and below $3.0m.

In the 2009 Jan - Feb period, just 11 homes sold for $800k or more,
and the highest sale was $1.4m. 

Further revealing of this lop-sided sales mix is the relatively small difference between the # of homes sold this year vs last year, yet the big (-35%) difference in the total $$ Value of homes sold.

Your opinions, points of view, predictions, we'd love to hear them.

Update; a sharp eyed reader correctly pointed out that sales of homes priced under $800k are actually up 7.8% in 2009 (55 vs 51) from 08.

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prices at Villa Milano at Rancho Sin Vacas

This morning I noticed that of the 18 listings that expired today, 16 of them are in Villa Milano at Rancho Sin Vacas. If you're not familiar with it, Villa Milano is an enclave of newer homes in the gated Sin Vacas subdivision, most of them in the 1800 to 2400 sf range.

And when Villa Milano made it's debut back in the go-go years,
I wondered if the homes weren't a bit pricey, even for those wild and crazy times. But quite a few of them did sell, so I guess I was off base back then. And now it turns out I was even more off-base than I thought because, compared to now, back then they were a bargain. 

You see as the market has gone down over the last two years, prices on many of the homes in Villa Milano have instead gone up, and not just a teensy-weensy bit either.
I didn't go through every one of the 16 expired listings, but enough to get a clue as to maybe why these are expiring rather than selling. Look it over and see what you think.

7577 N Viale Di Buona Fortuna #3 - listed at $540,000 on 2/07, expired today at $629,660

2647 E Via Corta Dei Fiori #15 - listed at $710,000 on 4/07 expired today at $758,650

7565 N Viale Di Buona Fortuna #2 - listed at $540,000 on 2/07
expired today at $617,250

7625 N Viale Di Buona Fortuna #7 - listed at $540,000 on 2/07 
expired today at $632,520

7601 N Viale Di Buona Fortuna #5 - listed at $595,000 on 12/06 
expired today at $632,520

2615 E Via Corta Dei Fiori #13 - listed at $710,000 on 4/07
expired today at $758,650

That's two years they've been hanging tough on their prices, 
so I can't wait to see what their next move will be.

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we'll do it our way

In a move to provide even less information, just when consumers want more - and  increasingly are getting it elsewhere,
the Tucson MLS has decided to remove the 'days on market' (DOM) and 'cumulative days on market' (CDOM) figures from a couple of key reports.

Agents use these reports to help themselves and their clients understand the market, as in the always asked, how long has that house been for sale. Oh you can still get your hands on this info, for the time being anyway, but instead of being easier to get, it's now clumsy and cumbersome and time consuming.

But despite that, this 'less is more' strategy appears to be catching on, at MLS anyway, because I hear they're now considering dropping the $/sf costs from the reports as well. Because apparently no one really looks at $/sf costs, isn't that right.

So when your agent is not able to readily supply this information remember, it's not they're doing, it's courtesy of the new thinking at the Tucson MLS.

Thinking that sounds eerily similar to what got the Big 3 to where they are today.

even cave dwellers are now feeling the pinch

The family was planning to stay in the cave for life, and moving out is not an appealing option.

215 Cave Drive in Festus, Mo

what do home buyers want

An article in today's New York Times offers some clues to the changed attitudes of home buyers and the resulting shift in emphasis in real estate ads. Hint, value is the new black.

And imagine, if this is happening in NYC, the high temple of haute, what might that say about the mind-set of buyers here in little old Tucson.

Adjectives Get Evicted

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