The Catalina Foothills

the wow house

That’s what I call it. It’s an amazing house, and today it was reduced to $1.9, when, way back when, in Sept 07, it was listed for $5.5.
And now it's official, it's a short sale too.

 
I’ve written about this place before so, rather than repeat myself, here’s the link, if you’re interested. At that writing, the price had been reduced to $2.4, and I ventured that that was an irresistible price. Apparently it wasn’t, so, this time round, I think I’ll keep quiet and just wait for the market to speak up.

Just the basics; built 2005, 7026 sf, 3 bedrooms/3.5 baths, in Foothills 2, a gated community high up in the Foothills.
(being sold as-is)

See it all here> 3700 E Rose Peak Pl, Tucson, AZ  85718

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there’s a butt for every seat

On and off the market since January 05, and listed as high as $1,385,000, and as low as $845,000, it sold yesterday for $835,000 - you're thinking, OK what is it, Wild kingdom maybe. No, it's right here in the Foothills,

on 2.25 acres, though much of it is underwater

 
you also get a house with this giant pond - it's back there somewhere- 2995 sf, 3 beds/2baths.

Fran Epsen, the listing agent, deserves an award for
stick-to-itiveness, and I hear she’s now damn good with a fly rod too

it was beautiful then, it’s beautiful now

but then was June 06, when it sold for $1,045,000 (at the height of the market) it was really beautiful then

but here’s the thing that stops buyers dead in their tracks every time

now, this January, it was listed for $1,300,000, without benefit, as far as I can tell, of any substantial improvements.

so the market’s DOWN about 30%, suggesting a list price well below a million, instead they go UP 24%, shooting for $1,300,000
        
    Reality --------------------------------------------Fantasy

Happy Trails!

interested, it’s still available, now for $1,175,000 
6424 N Placita Del Zopilote, in Alta Vista

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ready to go in La Paloma

It took a while, but hey, good things take time, and this very nice house in La Paloma is now, in my opinion, ready to go. It had a beautiful remodel in 08, it’s a contemporary, nicely located, 4181 sf,
4 bedrooms/3.5 baths, in pristine condition, and now it’s $1,099,000, $263/sf. If this looks like your thing, take a closer look.

Here’s the listing> 6321 N Via Acacia, Tucson, AZ 85718

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here’s a good one

from Chris Fountain, my Greenwich connection

Realtor speak

from the front lines

I’ve been out just about every day for the past few weeks showing homes to six different buyers. We’re looking at homes in the Foothills priced from $750,000 up to about $2.5mil. And my buyers are not tire kickers, they are ready, willing and able to buy, if only we could find the right home at the right price.

Two of the six buyers have found homes they like, we’ve been able to strike a deal, and put those homes in escrow. And they’re pleased.

But for the others, many of the homes we’ve looked at, and we’ve looked at dozens, are priced so hopelessly out of whack with today’s market, that no one is about to take the leap. When I mention this to the listing agents who call for feedback after a showing, they often prod me to make an offer - suggesting that the seller may well look at and consider offers, below, or even well below, the listing price.

Encouraging though that may be, why I ask, do you expect buyers to leap across that big divide separating fantasy from reality, without the seller meeting them at least half way. I’ve never gotten an answer to that, not one that makes sense anyway.

But reading between the lines, it’s become apparent to me that in many cases, and though they've been reduced somewhat, the listing agents are stuck with a price that was decided many months ago, before everything hit the fan. And with sellers who still refuse to admit that anything’s changed.

time’s running out though, just 31 shopping days til June

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uh oh, there goes the neighborhood

Or, can you imagine, reality strikes Pima Canyon!
1476 E Canyon Spring Ct, in Pima Canyon, went to contract today.

Canyon Spring was originally listed on 9/2007 for $2,495,000 ($504/sf) and, after 584 days on the market, went to contract today listed at $1,595,000, or $322/sf. Good for them, they’re about to move on. And a perfectly reasonable price for a nice home in Pima Canyon, I think. And apparently, someone else did too. And btw, the 2nd best priced home in PC on a $/sf basis, by a bunch. So could it be that, heaven forbid, price matters, even inside the pearly gates of PC.

More to come on Pima Canyon.

the pulse of the market, as we head into the stretch

With just 35 shopping days ‘til June, here’s a glimpse of what’s gone on in the Foothills home market during the past 14 days.

New Listings- 48
Avg list price - $963,425
Med list price - $659,950

The 48 new listings are evenly split, with 24 priced below the overall Foothills median list price of $649,000, and 24 above it, with 10 of those above it at $1.0mil+.

Under Contract – 32
Avg list price - $535,427
Med list price - $427,000

However, with the 32 under contract, 25 are priced below the median, and just 7 above it. And interestingly,yeah, 5 of those 7 are priced at $1.0mil+. 

Sold – 13
Avg Sold price - $537,500
Med Sold price - $440,000

Here’s where the rubber meets the road. Of the 13 sold, 10 are priced below the $649k median (in this case 10 at $585k or less). And just 3 above it, with 2 of the 3 priced at $1.0mil+.

Price Reductions – 64
Reduced Avg list price - $684,273
Reduced Med list price - $574,900

In this popular category, 35 price reductions were on homes listed for $649k or less, and 29 above that, with 7 $1.0mil+ being reduced.

So the beat goes on, and on - with a big gap between the price of homes that are selling vs those being listed for sale, which mirrors the gap between the average/median list ($925,265/$649,000) of all 585 Foothills homes for sale, vs all that have sold this year -
($516,130/$425,000)

tell me, why now

On and off the market since October 05,

 

 

I wasn’t expecting this home to sell anytime soon,

and certainly not listed at it’s current ($301/sf) $1,315,000 price,

 

 

but today, to contract it went, because someone thought it was just right. 
$1,315,000, for 6424 N Desert Wind Circle in Ventana Canyon Estates

The Listing

No comment.

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gone in 4 days

Already someone came along and scooped up that - oldie but goody in Skyline CC that I mentioned the other day,

list prices are holding up nicely

‘So the good news in PC (Pima Canyon) and Cat 10 is that listing prices are holding up.  The bad news is that homes are not selling at those prices.’ ’I should have added--indeed they are not selling at all’

thanks to a reader, referring to look on the bright side, darn it

I thought a little data might offer a clue as to why nothing is selling in PC. 
These are the average list prices of homes sold in past years, in PC;
2006 - $1,948,450 (the all time peak)
2007 - $1,744,964
2008 – $1,751,444
2009 - $2,387,682, this is the average list price of homes for sale in PC this year, because you see, none have sold.

Here’s another clue.
Prices are down about 30% from the peak- in the Foothills, in Tucson, in Arizona, and just about everywhere else in the USA, and it’s nowhere more evident than at the high-end of the market but, despite that, list prices in Pima Canyon are up, not down.

PS – there is now one home under contract in PC and, without revealing the selling price, the listing agent assured me that it too would support current asking prices in Pima Canyon. So that’ll make 1 sold in 4 months, 22 for sale is 22 X 4 = an 88 month supply of PC homes. But so what, list prices are holding up, and that’s the good news, and we want the good news, right. 

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look on the bright side, darn it

I’ve been out showing homes for the past week or so and, for the last couple of days, we’ve been inside the pearly gates of Catalina Foothills Estates 10 and Pima Canyon. Both very desirable, lovely, luxury gated communities here in the Foothills.

But with 22 homes for sale in Pima Canyon and 17 in Cat 10, and none sold since October, even the most giddy optimist amongst us could see that things are not going too well in there, you would think.

But when the listing agent for one of the Pima Canyon homes smiled pertly and pointed out, ‘no sales, but at least prices are holding up in Pima Canyon’ I thought, gee, why didn’t I think of that.

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you get a break

Because for the past week I’ve been showing homes in the Foothills, and have a few more days to go, so no blogging, but, hopefully I’ll have some good things to report when I’m back.

from foreclosure du jour to under contract in 10 days

This went quick but, at this price, who’s surprised.

I wrote about this house when it came on the market
- foreclosure du jour – and 10 days later it’s gone to contract.

It was $1,200,000 or $234/sf, and a little birdie told me that it went for quite a bit under that. 5112 sf on 4 acres at the top of Sin Vacas.

When that closes, we’ll have another comp in the very low $200’s/sf for a home in a luxury gated community.

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let’s do $$/sf costs

because $$/sf is front and center on every buyers mind these days, though apparently, not the same can be said for many sellers.
Following is a breakdown of the- # of homes for sale, the # sold since Jan 1, and the resulting months supply of homes for sale, by $$/sf costs in the Foothills.

$$/sf	# For Sale	# Sold	months supply
$100 - $150	27	31	3
$150 - $200	184	58	11
$200 - $250	152	21	25
$250 - $300	105	11	33
$300 - $350	43	2	75
$350 - $400	28	1	98
$400 - $450	19	0	?
$450 - $500	10	0	?
$500 & Up	16	0	?

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an oldie but goody in Skyline CC

5406 E Gleneagles Dr in Skyline CC just came up for sale, for the first time since 1971, and it looks like either a major rehab or a teardown. The house is masonry construction, built in 71, 3522 sf, on 1.8 acres- that’s a large lot for Skyline. Asking $475,000 or a measly $135/sf.

It just popped into the mls, so I haven’t seen it yet, but will check it out later today.

Here’s a link to an aerial view> 5406 E Gleneagles Dr it’s the house with the north facing yard.

and the listing (no pictures though) 5406 E Gleneagles Dr

UPDATE I stopped by, and, in my opinion, it’s in too good a condition to tear down. It’s all vintage but in great shape and it’s a very nice mountain view lot, from the family room & the backyard with pool. I’d scoop out the interior and reconfigure the space.

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north or northwest, it’s not pretty

A few buyers I’ve been working with, and other readers of this blog, have been asking how the market for high-end homes is doing in Oro Valley and the Northwest. And I don’t work up there very much, so I didn’t know for sure, but I assumed the Northwest was suffering a fate similar to that of the Foothills- high inventory/slow sales, etc. But I took a look and here’s what I found;

Northwest, at $1,000,000 and Up
129 homes for sale
8 sold since Jan 1 = a 56 month supply of homes for sale

Northwest, at $1,500,000 and Up
73 homes for sale
3 sold since Jan 1 = a 85 month supply

VS.

Foothills, at $1,000,000 and Up
159 homes for sale
13 sold since Jan 1 = 43 month supply

Foothills, at $1,500,000 and Up
84 for sale
1 sold since Jan 1 = 252 month supply

So six a one - half dozen of the other, the high-end market in the Northwest and the Foothills are doing poorly. But there is one big difference. In the northwest, of the 129 for sale at $1.0+, 79 homes, or 61%, were built in 2007 or later, vs. 31, or 19% in the Foothills.

And I didn’t go through them one-by-one, but you can be sure that a majority of those 2007 and newer homes are spec homes. And as we've seen here in the Foothills, spec homes are usually the first to  throw in the towel, sell for pennies on the dollar, and drag down neighborhood values.

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there once was a seller who wanted to sell

5983 N Sabino Shadow Ln, Tucson AZ 85750
They purchased it for $945,000 in 2005
And listed it for $849,000 in 2009, ouch, what were they thinking.

they were thinking they wanted to sell, so they did what they had to do, and priced it well enough that 3 buyers came along in just one month.

the first buyer came along just 5 days after it was listed and it went to contract, but then it fell out, and it went to contract again 2 days later with a 2nd buyer, and fell out again, and went to contract for the 3rd time, with a 3rd buyer, a few weeks after that. And then all was well, and it sold for $800,000.

I wrote about this house when it came on the market, and guessed, because it was such a nice house and so well priced, that it might get multiple offers. And it did, they just ended up being spread out over a few weeks, rather than coming all at once.  it stood out from the crowd

I often hear people, owners or agents say, we’re/they’re in no rush to sell. Ok fine, take all the time in the world. But, did figure into your wait and see strategy - that when you are in a down market your home will be worth less $$, not more $$, two months from now than it’s worth now. That usually fails to convince them.

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would you put up with some traffic noise to save $900,000

La Quinta is a local custom builder of high quality masonry built homes done in the territorial or Spanish colonial style. And right now there are two beautiful La Quinta’s on the market that are very similar in size, quality, amenities, etc, yet there’s a $900,000 price difference between them.

La Quinta # 1   $1,485,000/$266 sf
Built 2008, 5577 sf, 5 bedrooms/5.5 baths, 5 car garage, 1.8 acres, masonry construction, pool,

La Quinta # 2   $2,395,000/$460 sf
Built 2008, 5204 sf, 5 bedrooms/5 baths, 4 car garage, 1.4 acres, masonry construction, pool,

Same architect, same builder, materials and craftsmanship. 
But they’re in different locations.

La Quinta # 1 is in the old Foothills on Calle Ladero, but it’s also close to the traffic noise from Campell Ave. But consider, a new La Quinta for less than $266 sf, that’s unheard of, or it was until now, seems almost blasphemous. 

La Quinta # 2 is in Pima Canyon, where it’s peaceful and quiet, but that’s $900,000 more, or $460/sf, and that’s not going over too well with today’s buyers.

So take your pick, noisy or peaceful, expensive or cheap, they’re both wonderful La Quinta’s and they’re both still available.

See them here> THE LA QUINTA’S

anatomy of a sale

6140 N Via Presilla in La Paloma,
Purchased in March 07 for $805,000
it was 3110 sf, 3 bedrooms/2.5 baths and looked like this

and this (actual un-retouched mls photos)

 
And then, thank God, it was renovated and 900 sf was added, bringing it to 4025 sf, 4 bedrooms/4.5 baths + an office, with new kitchen, new baths, new floors, lighting, windows, doors, landscaping, and other stuff, and suddenly it looked like this

and this. They did a really nice job on the house,

 
but not so good on the pricing. They listed it for $1,595,000, (in October 07) then $1,495,000, and so on, and nothing happened until 14 months later when it got down to $1,149,000 this January - and finally sold today for $1,050,000.

The buyer did well. The seller did not. They lost money on this deal, because they overpriced it, and hung on for dear life until they couldn’t hang on anymore.
And with mountain views on the golf course too,

 

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not your average rehab

I’ve been out showing a lot homes lately and ran across two that are real gems.

Both are older homes that were completely re-imagined, then totally renovated, and remodeled. They’re both beautifully done with high quality materials and workmanship, but are also worthy of awards for art direction and interior design. One of them has views that are nearly 360º, and the other has incredible landscaping and outdoor living areas. They’re both very special.

5321 N Via Condesa $998,000

3467 sf, 3 bedrooms/2 baths + office, burnt adobe construction, interior by Robinson & Shades, award winning landscape design featured in Tucson Home & Garden.
See it here> Via Condesa (the pictures are good but, in person, the house is better)

4520 N Camino Kino $1,275,000

3312 sf, 3 bedrooms/3.5 baths, burnt adobe construction, fabulous mountain and city views.
See it here> 4520 Camino Kino (way better in person than the pictures)

They’re both pricey, particularly Kino, but this kind of work doesn’t come cheap.

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the good news is

home sales from $0 to $649,000 are doing quite well,

Jan – 21 sold

Feb - 30

Mar - 34

Apr – 10

total sales - 95

homes for sale $0 to $649,000 – 300

or 32% of existing inventory has sold in the past 3 1/2 months,
which leaves us with (only) 11 months of inventory under $649,000

compare that to million$+ home sales this year

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million$+ home sales this year

Jan – 4

Feb – 5

Mar – 2

Apr – 0

total sales - 11

million$+ homes for sale – 158 
so just 7% of homes for sale have sold in 3 1/2 months

$1.5mil+ home sales this year

Jan – 0

Feb – 0

Mar – 1

Apr – 0

total sales - 1

$1.5mil+ homes for sale – 83
just 1.2% of homes for sale have sold in 3 1/2 months

Yesterday I reported that 2 homes priced at a million+ went to contract, I called that a glimmer of hope, and as you can see, it is just barely a glimmer.

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a glimmer of hope

Two homes priced at a million + went to contract today.

2551 E Calle Sin Ruido in Sin Vacas, which I mentioned here last week as a recent foreclosure, went to contract after just 12 days at it’s new $1.2mil foreclosure price. see it here> foreclosure du jour

and

7738 N Ancient Indian Dr in Pima Canyon. This is the first home to go to contract in Pima Cyn since September and, with 23 for sale, they could use a few sales in there. And, surprise-surprise, it’s not a foreclosure or short sale. See it here> 7738 N Ancient Indian Dr

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what will it sell for this time

4407 E Calle Del Conde, in Haciendas Catalina Del Rey

In 2004 it was listed for $549,000 and sold for $509,000.
In 2005 it was listed for $689,000, but after two months it hadn’t sold, so they raised the price to $799,000, (no kidding, I of course thought they were nuts) but it sold for $750,000 in 18 days.   
And now it’s for sale again, and back to it’s 04 list price, for $550,000, as a short sale.

2701 sf, 4 beds/3 baths, masonry construction-built in 1982,
pool/spa, gorgeous mountain views, nicely remodeled kitchen & baths, new trav floors, 

If you still think short sales and foreclosures are not affecting prices in the foothills, think again.

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time will tell

About 2 months ago I showed a house that was recently listed at $1,500,000, or upwards of $375/sf. It was overpriced, we knew that going in but, price aside, it looked like it might have possibilities. And unlike most buyers, who won't even look at overpriced listings, these people weren't timid and were game for a look. What the hell, nothing ventured, ....

It was a nice house, good location, terrific lot, so on and so forth. But not at $1.5, more like $1.0, maybe $1.1. So we went on our merry way.

And after the showing the listing agent called me to see how it went.
So I told him, 'nice house, good location, terrific lot, so on and so forth. But not at $1.5.

Well make an offer, he said. Well lower your price, I said, and added, you'll never sell it listed at that price, because most buyers won't even look at it. He smugly disagreed, and that was the end of that.

So now two months later, he called me again the other day, less smug this time, to let me know that he thinks the owner might consider an offer well below asking price.

Wow, he thinks the owner might consider, this is sounding really encouraging, can't wait to call my buyers with the great news.

So once again I said, lower your price.
He doesn't want to, because he thinks it's worth more, but, if he got a lower offer, he might accept it. 

Do me a favor, call in a month and let me know how he's feeling then.

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lop off a few million and our spec house troubles sound a lot like what's going on in Greenwich

Spec house trouble From Chris Fountain in Greenwich,

How much trouble can builders bear? I know of one builder with three unsold projects, all ranging from $4ish to $6 million and nothing in that price range has sold in his end of town in six months.

priced to sell, but in what year

I was out house shopping with clients the other day, and one of the houses we looked at was a newer listing in the $1.0 to $1.250 range, which worked out to over $310/sf. Quite high, but we thought we'd check it out anyway.

It was a nice looking house, well appointed, nicely maintained.
BUT, missing one or two essential ingredients, and not a $310+/sf house, not in this market, essential ingredients or not. Not in our opinion anyway. Then again, the question remains, what is a $310/sf house in this market. But more on that later.

But we were glad to have seen it, and now we could cross it off our list and go on our merry way, never to return.

The next day the listing agent called me for feedback. So I told him what I thought about the missing ingredients, and why it wouldn't work, and blah-blah-blah, and I said nothing about the price.
But he did. Oh, they were aware of all that, and that's why they priced it where they did, 'we really priced it to sell', he emphasized, reiterated and repeated. Aha, right OK, got it, thanks bye.

... priced it to sell when, I wondered.
Only 3 homes have sold this year priced at $300/sf or more, and one of them must have been a sale of extreme passion, or extreme something, because it sold in 1 day for full list price. But even counting that one, just 3 sold in over 3 months.

Now with just 3 sales, this may be hard to believe but, and 115 for sale priced at $300+/sf, that  works out to a 115 month supply of homes at $300+/sf, that's what - 9 1/2 years. So take your pick, what year would you like to sell.

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As succinct a description of the market as I’ve heard

so says the inimitable Chris Fountain, and, with a nip here and a tuck there, I think it fits this market to a T, too.

As succinct a description of the market as I’ve heard

238 homes and just one contract

In the last 14 days 31 homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills, and 31 of the 32 were listed at $750,000 or less.
Above that, just one lovely old Joesler at $1,990,000 found a buyer.

That leaves 237 for sale at $750,00 and up that no one's touched

Yet there are buyers out there shopping at $1.0m and up, I'm working with 4 of them myself, but they're in no rush, and not about to make a move until sellers get real. 

So hurry up and get real, because there are just 54 shopping days 'til June

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I know you've been trying to talk sense into sellers on this blog for months. When do you think they will start listening?

That was from a reader of this blog, and I think the answer is never.

I was out previewing houses recently in the $1.0 to $1.5 range when one of the home owners asked me how the market was doing.
I was sure he didn't want the whole 9 yards, so I gave him the -
not too bad under $700k or so, pretty bad above $1.0.

Well that lit a fuse, one thing led to another, and before you could yell timberrrr, we were in a full-blown discussion of the market.
Me spewing off dismal price and sales data and him saying that it was all a matter of how you twisted the numbers, in other words, I was full of crap and, in reality, the $1.0 to $1.5 market was doing pretty darn well. Why, his agent had even shown him a couple of comps that support his asking price. Good golly, imagine that.

And since there are a couple of comps in the $1.0 to $1.5 range, that do support his price, I'm sure his agent did show him those.

But I wonder if they also showed him all the other sales that don't support his price, or showed him there is 28 months of inventory in his price range, and that at this point, his chance of selling is about as good as his chance of winning at the roulette table. Or have they shown him all that, and he's just decided to tune out all that negative stuff.

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1st quarter foothills home sales

Please, just the numbers,

price	# homes sold	# homes 4 sale	moi
$0 - $500	67	206	9
$500 - $750	25	141	17
$750 - $1.0	8	81	30
$1.0 - $1.5	8	75	28
$1.5 - $2.0	1	41	123
$2.0 & UP	0	41	who knows
Totals	109	585	16

**moi = months of inventory

Also for the 1st quarter,

Avg list price of all homes for sale	$933,559
Avg list price of homes that sold	$591,579
Avg sold price	$530,404
Median list price of all homes for sale	$649,000
Median list price of homes that sold	$477,900
Median sold price	$445,000

Compared to the 1st quarter of previous years;
The number of homes sold is - down 12% from 2008, down 22% from 2007, down 45% from 2006.

The average Sold price is - down 26% from 2008, down 22% from 2007, down 29% from 2006.

The median Sold price is - down 17% from 2008, down 17.6% from 2007, down 23% from 2006.

And Compared to the last quarter of 2008, the number of homes sold and the average sold prices are virtually identical, however, the median sold price has dropped 5% in the latest quarter.
- 108 homes sold, at $532,306 average Sold price, $467,750 median sold price.

What can I say, low priced homes are selling pretty well, high priced homes are not.

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listed at a million+, what did they sell for

Lately I've had some of those, the glass is half full or half empty, discussions regarding the million+ market here in the Foothills. 
So rather than bully pulpit my point of view, and in the interest of being fair, I've made a list of all the homes listed at a million+ that have sold this year, and provided the sales data for each. So you can peruse the list and the data and then decide for yourself just how full or empty the glass really is.

Here we go.
12 homes that were listed at a million+ have sold this year.
This, is their story.

1. 3550 E Camino A Los Vientos (Spec home)
Original list - $2,450,000
list at sale - $1,800,000
Sold for $900,000 - $184/sf, - 50% of list at sale
392 DOM

2. 3260 E Sun Cloud Pl
Listed for $1,099,000
Sold for $1,000,000 - $242/sf, - 91% of list at sale
21 DOM

3. 5543 N Camino Real  (Spec home)
Original list - $1,495,000
list at sale - $1,275,000
Sold for $1,000,000 - $269/sf, - 78% of list at sale
471 DOM

4. 4911 N Camino Antonio (Spec home)
Original list - $1,775,000
list at sale - $1,375,000
Sold for $1,050,000 - $236/sf, - 76% of list at sale
950 DOM

5. 7720 E Shadow Vista Ct
Original list - $1,325,000
list at sale - $1,195,000
Sold - $1,075,000 - $301/sf, - 90% of list at sale
240 DOM

6. 6764 N Placita Cielito Lindo
Listed for - $1,295,000
Sold - $1,115,000 - $269/sf, - 86% of list at sale
37 DOM

7. 7570 N Calle Sin Controversia
Original list - $1,750,000
list at sale - $1,400,000
Sold - $1,170,000 - $212/sf, - 84% of list at sale
436 DOM

8. 6410 N Nirvana Pl
Listed for $1,295,000
Sold - $1,175,000 - $271/sf, - 91% of list at sale
34 DOM

9. 5171 N Hacienda Del Sol Rd (Spec home)
Original list - $2,700,000
list at sale - $2,300,000
Sold - $1,200,000 - $143/sf, - 52% of list at sale
617 DOM

10. 4207 N Sabino Mountain Dr
Listed for - $1,365,000
Sold - $1,250,000 - $319/sf, - 92% of list at sale
63 DOM

11. 4361 E La Paloma Dr
Listed for - $1,400,000
Sold - $1,400,000 - $358/sf, - 100% of list at sale
1 DOM

12. 3333 E Cobblestone Pl
Original list - $2,995,000
list at sale - $1,895,000
Sold - $1,710,000 - $206/sf, - 90% of list at sale
545 DOM

And for good measure, a few averages:
Average list price of 12 sold - $1,474,500
Average sold price - $1,170,417
Average % of sale price/list price - 79% sp/Lp
Average $/sf of 12 sold - $250.63/sf
Average list price of 157 $1.0+ homes remaining for sale - $1,902,786

Now, as you ponder half-full or half-empty, keep in mind that at a million and up there are 157 homes for sale. And with 12 sold in last 3 months, we're looking at a 39 month supply.
So, half-full, half-empty, or still undecided??

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happy to sell as long as we get our price

listing expires today after 183 days at $985,000, or $295/sf, and never a price reduction. $985 do or die.

stubbornly re-listed today at $985,000

Oh, and they bought at the peak of the market in June 2006 for $890,000, and since then prices are down 25%, but who cares, they want their price.

it may take a few years, so hopefully they're also happy to wait

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it doesn't matter what you paid, or what you put into it, or what you'd like to get for it,

if you want to sell it, the only thing that matters is what buyers are willing to pay for it.

Take 3333 E Cobblestone Pl, an 8311 sq. ft house with 6 bedrooms/6 baths in Cobblestone, a very desirable high end community.

They paid $1,500,000 in June 2004(well before the peak), and then renovated it, including a new top to bottom high-end kitchen with all the trimmings - cherry cabinetry, granite, sub zeros, Wolf & Asko appliances, etc - new travertine floors throughout the house, and more. I'm guessing an easy $250 to $300k.

So now with everything looking ship-shape, they list it in August 2007 for a very optimistic $2,995,000. But buyers weren't buying it.
And not until the price got down to $1,895,000, $1.1 less than they'd hoped for, did it sell, for $1,710,000. So they lost on this one.

But they sold it and, licking their wounds, they get to move on.

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who can resist

listed at $1,798,000 in 2007, here's the pitch,

THIS IS IT: LAST PRICE REDUCTION before coming off market 9/16. We have reduced this home $389,000 since listing it and it was the the BEST DEAL then. ONLY FULL or near FULL OFFERS CAN BE CONSIDERED.

THIS IS IT: LAST PRICE REDUCTION
that's priceless, but still it didn't sell

so now,
listed today at $1,200,000
Great Opportunity! Newer Construction Modern Architecture with Amazing Mountain Views. Potential Short Sale must call LA prior to submitting an offer. Please Please Please.

OK, I added the Please Please, creative license, but the rest is word for word.

And as threatened, they did take it off the market on 9/16/07, and then not a peep until it reared it's head again today as a new potential short sale listing, for $1.2 or $274/sf. Best of luck with that and, who knows, maybe there's even a little room for negotiation this time round. here's what it looked like back then,

and here's today's listing (but no pictures)> 5805 N Campbell Ave

If you're counting, that's two new short sale/foreclosure listings today, and, coincidentally, both at $1,200,000.

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foreclosure du jour

2551 E Calle Sin Ruido, in Sin Vacas, was re-listed today as a foreclosure for $1,200,000. And because I haven't seen it, I couldn't say whether or not that's a good deal, but, it's a whole lot better deal than it was 2 weeks ago when they were asking $1,895,000. 

And it's distinguishing feature is that it sits on 4 acres way up there against the Coronado National Forest.

5122 sq. ft., 4 bedrooms/4.5 baths, built in 1991, 2 story, all for $234/sf. Sin Ruido -without sound, but with very good views.

See it here> Sin Ruido

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homes sold in March

2006 - 84

2007 - 61

2008 - 51

2009 - 39

average sold price of homes sold in March

2006 - $844K

2007 - $729k

2008 - $676k

2009 - $497k

Still not sure where things are headed,

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it was fun while it lasted

Sold, June 2000 - $450,000

Sold, April 2004 - $655,000

Sold, December 2004 - $868,440

Sold, February 2005 - $980,000

Listed, June 2006 - $1,350,000 oops!

Sold, April 1, 2009 - $575,000

No, it's no April fool's gotcha, it's for real.
5722 E Placita La Gracias in Alta Vista really did sell today, as a lender owned property, for less than it's 04 sale price. And at $123/sf, I'm sure, the neighbors are none too thrilled.

Given that this home sold 4X in 4 tries, and always for more money, had they not been so greedy and failed to notice that the music had stopped when they listed it in June 06, they might have, no, likely would have, gone 5 for 5.

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