The Catalina Foothills

Calle Sin Ruido is a very popular street

There are a grand total of four homes on this street that’s up
at the very tippy-top of Sin Vacas.
Two were for sale - one sold last month and the other sold today.

Last months sale was a foreclosure that went for cheap;
listed for $1.2 (after many price cuts) it went for $1,035,000 or just $202/sf, for $5122 sf on 4+ acres. And it was not beaten up or abused, it appeared to be in just fine shape.

So you’d think, I did, they’d have a hard time getting near their asking for the one that sold today. But they didn’t.
It was listed for $1,495,000 and sold today for $1,400,000, or $320/sf - $118/sf more than the foreclosure. 4370 sf on 4+ acres.

And these two are right next to each other(1 & 2) on what are some of the oddest lots in the foothills. Bowling alley lots, that are 
1500’ long X 125’ wide. And beyond the north border is Coronado National Forest land.

Calle Sin Ruido, the street without sound.

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got trash

Contact Mike Bette. I had a load of branches and yard trimmings and went to Craigslist to find someone to haul it off. That’s where I came across Mike.

He has full-size pickup, built up with side boards to handle a big load. And right now he’s charging just $45, flat-rate for a full load –
picked up and dumped. That’s cheap.

And Mike’s a really nice guy too. We made the arrangements by email and he was prompt, loaded it all up, cleaned up and was on his way in no time. No muss, no fuss, no bother.

Contact Mike> [email protected]

wouldn’t you want to know

Last week when the house at 5771 N Campbell Ave went to contract, for the 5th time, I mentioned it on the blog – 9th time’s the charm

And the agent representing the new buyers called me to express his dismay at that blog post. As he explained it, he was upset because what I said was ‘negative innuendo’ and it upset his buyers. Certainly my intention was not to upset his, or anyone else’s buyers. And I’m sorry if I did.

And keep in mind, this blog is read by many people interested in Foothills real estate, and it was written for their benefit, and not meant specifically for his buyers.

But, to try and understand, I asked what part of what I wrote was negative innuendo.
He said, the line, “ If I were a buyer looking to put a contract on this house I’d want to know why it’s fallen out of contract every time it’s gone in in the last 10 months.”, was the the offending, negative innuendo.

Well hell, the fact that it fell out of contract every time it’s gone in in the last 10 months would very likely, and reasonably so, be construed as negative. It sure as hell isn’t positive. But asking why it did, is reasonable and necessary and just common sense.

So I didn’t, and still don’t, see the negative innuendo, not at all.

I think it’s pretty clear that any house that’s gone in and out of contract a few times warrants an explanation of why that’s happened. In my experience, buyers are interested in knowing, and they should be, what caused a house to fall out of contract if it happened just once. And I did my best to explain that. And he explained that the reasons it fell out were fairly innocent, and mostly had to do with the lender. Oh, OK great, that’s a good thing to know when you’re involved in a short sale or foreclosure. 
So now the buyers know it and hopefully can avoid those roadblocks this time round.

And I was hoping that that was that. But still he persists, now via email, accusing me of negative innuendo.

OK, but remember, this isn’t just any old house I was talking about. This is the spec home that sold for $2.2 in April 07, was back on the market about 10 months later as short sale for $1.1 and, since then, has gone in and out of contract 4 times. And in the course of it’s short life was apparently abused by it’s owner, as indicated by the listing agent herself, who at one point described it, in the listing, as;

”Short Sale- Great opportunity, house needs a lot of work. The roof is leaking in several places and has damaged the ceiling, all the appliances are gone, parts of kitchen & bathroom cabinets are missing, parts of the flooring need replacing. There is also a partially finished pool, bring your contractor & make an offer.”

If you were the buyer, wouldn’t you want to know

oh yeah, a sow’s ear into a silk purse

Earlier this year I stopped in to see the house at 5771 N Campbell Ave, listed as a short sale. And the listing described it as;

”Short Sale- Great opportunity, house needs a lot of work. The roof is leaking in several places and has damaged the ceiling, all the appliances are gone, parts of kitchen & bathroom cabinets are missing, parts of the flooring need replacing. There is also a partially finished pool, bring your contractor & make an offer.”

And from my walk-thru of the house, that seemed like a very accurate description of it’s condition.

But then the listing expired in late February and it wasn’t
re-listed until late April. And it was relisted by the same agent.

I figured they hadn’t gotten any nibbles with the place trashed the way it was and needed a couple of months to replace all the missing cabinets and fixtures and whatnot and patch it up and make it presentable before re-listing it. But since it was a short sale, I also wondered who was footing the bill for this fix-up.

And sure enough, when the listing popped back into the MLS two months later, it was described as;

“New Construction near Campbell and Skyline~Unbelievable mountian views! This home is listed for less than half of previous sales price-it's truly the best deal in the foothills!High ceilings, floor to ceiling windows and classy contemporary architecture make this a true gem. Lots of outdoor covered patios and decking overlook the pool and dramatically increase living space, Pool is unfinished but has an amazing layout.”

A miraculous transformation. It had gone from, “ house needs a lot of work. The roof is leaking in several places and has damaged the ceiling, all the appliances are gone, parts of kitchen & bathroom cabinets are missing…”  
TO;
“New Construction near Campbell and…the best deal in the foothills!High ceilings, floor to ceiling windows and classy contemporary architecture make this a true gem.”  A true gem  
And now they had pictures to prove it.

WOW! I couldn’t believe my eyes. But there it was. They must have spent some big bucks. I had to see this for myself, so I hopped on over there, walked in, looked around and, it was in the same trashed condition it was two months ago. And it didn’t look anything like the pictures.

The cabinets were still missing, the appliances gone, holes in the ceiling. They did manage to clean up some of the trash in the house, but didn’t bother with the trash outside. It did not remotely resemble the pictures or the description in the listing. The pictures were either good fakes or from some bygone era and the description was pure fiction. Who were they trying to kid.

And by the way, this is 2009, right. And the house was built in 2006.
And it was purchased by someone in 2007, who lived in it and abused it - as described above by the listing agent - and yet, it was now listed as  “New Construction near Campbell … a true gem” blah blah blah

This is a travesty. And not just clearly deceptive but counterproductive and a waste of everyone’s time.
There are buyers out there who are looking for a deal in a fixer-upper, who might see this as a real opportunity. But they’d pass up a true gem, as pictured and described above, because they’re looking for a fixer-upper.

And those looking for a true gem would be pretty upset at having their time wasted with a house that was a fixer-upper.

Wouldn’t you.

way to go, 3 more down

Let’s see.
6871 E Desert Wind Ct,  in Ventana Country Club Estates, sold today for $950,000, $297/sf, off a $999,000, never reduced, list price.
No need. It sold in 15 days.

And 3295 E Camino Juan Paisano, in La Paloma, sold today too.
For $1,400,000, $273/sf, off a $1,695,000 list. This though, took some doing. It was first listed for 2 mil about 18 months ago.

And score another one for Pima Canyon.
2067 E Desert Garden Dr went for $1,500,000, $350/sf. That’s from the latest $1,795,000 list price. It started out at $2,295,000, way back when. 

If this keeps up, I’m going to run out of fingers and toes.

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on this hot day in July

2 more million+ homes go to contract

3260 E Sun Cloud Pl in Cobblestone. It sold in February for an even million, was back on the market in May for $1.1 and now is under contract. Somebody up there likes this house.

And 4130 E La Paloma Dr. Listed in February for, ahahahah, $1,590,00. But, before too long, they figured out they were headed in the wrong direction, corrected course and got it down to an even million. And BANG! under contract. When they dropped the price to $1.0, I mentioned it was probably where they needed to be -big price drop on La Paloma Dr today – given they paid $995 five years ago, almost to the day.

See them here> 2 more down at a million+
**link will expire on 8/26/09***

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a rising tide lifts all boats

Case-Shiller says,

For the fourth consecutive month, there was modest improvement in May in housing prices, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a closely watched measure of the market.

“It is very possible that years from now we will say that April 2009 was the trough in home prices,” S.& P.’s vice president for index services, Maureen Maitland, said.

And even though Case-Shiller does not include Tucson in it’s 20 city index, we’re affected by what goes on, if only because home owners able to sell there can then migrate and buy here.

From The New York Times, read all about it,
Slide in Home Prices Is Slowing Down, Index Shows

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hope springs eternal

6546 E Celsian Pl at the Ridge at Ventana Canyon was listed today for $850,00, or $403.80/sf.

And other than a failed attempt to sell in 2004, for $599,900, there’s no sales history for this home. And no indication of remodeling or updating to help make that asking price go down a little easier.

But I’m anxious to see it, since, given it’s price, it must be quite spectacular. And assuming it is, I’m also anxious to see if buyers are willing to pay the premium being asked for it. And if by chance they are, it’ll then need the blessing of the appraiser/lender.

Here’s the issue. There are two others for sale at the Ridge and they’re priced at $259 & $290/sf and they haven’t sold. And although the one sale in the last six months was at a very generous $302/sf, that’s still a long way from $403. And this one’s a 2 story.

See it here> 6546 E Celsian Pl 

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house in the Tucson Foothills: $600,000

 
_____________________________________________

Coverage on the front page of USA TODAY:
PRICELESS

Looking to live the simpler life? Look no further than Tucson.

That Tucson is home to the University of Arizona helped boost it to the top.

"It's quite an affordable city in part, but it also has a lot going on about it," she says. "There are a lot of ways to enjoy living there."

She adds that residents rave about the city's multicultural feel. "They just feel like it's one of those great melting pots."
______________________________________________

So says an article in today’s USA TODAY

Tucson is the top go-to place for simpler living, says AARP

Two weeks ago Businessweek chose Tucson as #1,
they’ll soon be beating down the doors, and if this keeps up, they may well be.

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this spec didn’t spec out

5112 E Camino Alisa was one of those spec renovations where the builder/investor buys an older home tears most of it down and rebuilds. A very popular and often profitable past-time a few years ago.

It was originally built in 1972 as a 2100sf slump-block Territorial,
which they paid $375,000 for, $5000 over list, in June 05.

And after doing their thing, it was reborn in April 08 as a 3558sf frame-stucco contemporary, listed for $950,000.

But timing is everything and by April 08 it was way too late.

This is in Skyline Belair, an older community in the central foothills, with many older homes in dire need of renovation.  But most of the renovation craze in Skyline Belair only took-off after investors in Skyline CC, it’s wealthier neighbor to the north, paved the way with successful renovation/rebuild projects. And by then the end was near.

So from $950 it went to $875, to $849, to $775, etc, etc - meanwhile going through 4 listing agents – and finally reaching $577,000, it sold the other day, for $577,000 -$162/sf.

I showed this house a couple of times earlier this year and, though it wasn’t perfect, it was a lot of house for the money. The problem was, it was one of just a handful of homes in this community that had been renovated. So it sat amidst much older, less up-to-date homes. And for now it will likely remain that way.

But with it’s prime location and nice lots with good views, when things do get going again, I think Skyline Belair will once again be ripe for investment and renovation. 

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hey, sales are up in the foothills too

There’s been a rash of positive real estate news from around the country. Most of it about higher sales and lower inventory.

And guess what, it’s happening here too.

In the last 30 days 63 homes sold in the Foothills and that’s more, quite a bit more, than in any other 30 day period this year.

Starting with the latest 30 day period and working backwards, here’s;
# homes sold/average sold $$/median sold $$/# sold @ $1.0+

6/26 – 7/25,  63/$589,978/$460,000/ 3

5/26 – 6/25,  43/$525,023/$475,000/3

4/26 – 5/25, 42/$520,774/$384,750/3

3/26 – 4/25, 41/$483,273/$405,000/3

2/26 – 3/25, 33/$485,509/$420,000/1

1/26 – 2/25, 45/$561,287/$470,000/7

12/26 – 1/25, 28/$460,200/$383,000/2

And right now there are 509 homes for sale in the foothills, fewer than anytime in the last 12 - 18 months, maybe longer.

And looking at months of inventory based on sales for the last 30 days, we’re at just over 8 months inventory, a fantastic improvement from where we’ve been. 509/63 = 8.079 months.

Also worth noting is, that beyond the big jump in the last 30 days, sales have gone up, not down, ever so slightly month by month. And prices are more than holding their own too.

On the other hand, the million+ category is not contributing it's fair share to this improvement. It continues to suffer slow sales, high inventory, and consequently, very high months of inventory. 22 sold this year/114 for sale/38 months inventory. Nothing encouraging there, I'm afraid.

But stay tuned and let’s see what it looks like 30 days from now.

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oh hell, not another sale over $3.0 mil

Wasn’t it just last week that the house in Cobo Catalina Hills sold for $3,200,000, breaking the long dry spell, that’s since October 07, of sales over $3,000,000.

And now here we go again. 6015 N Camino Preciado in La Paloma sold today for $3,250,000 off a $3,450,000 list price.

Built 2009/7266 sf/$447/sf/4 Bdr/6 Bths/masonry construction/4 car garage/pool & spa/1.020 acres/

Do I hear $4.0 mil.

See it here> 6015 N Camino Preciado
**no pictures in the listing and link will expire on 8/22/09***

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hey, what the heck are buyers waiting for anyway

4520 E Swans Nest Rd hit the market in January at $950,000, but buyers waited until it was reduced to $799,000 and paid $770,000 for it a couple of weeks ago.

6058 E Roadrunner Haven Pl was listed for $1,195,000 in January 08. And buyers watched and waited patiently as the price was reduced to $1,145,000, then to $1,085,000 to $1,065,000 to $1,049,000, $1,025,000, $985,000, $950,000, $899,900 and finally to $875,000.
It was a long wait, but patience paid off. Last month they ended up getting it for $800,000.

In November 07, 4351 E Pinnacle Ridge Pl was listed for $1,175,000, but no nibbles. So it was reduced to $1,149,000 to $1,125,000 to $1,099,900 to $999,900 to $950,000 to $899,000 and finally someone bit and it sold for $850,000 last month. A heck of a long way from $1,175,000.

4839 E Placita Provida started out at $1,259,000 in March 08, and after getting down to $999,999, a very patient buyer got it for $900,000 two weeks ago.

5527 N Camino Real, listed at a lofty $1,649,000 in November 07, sold for 47% less, $895,000, after many moons and many cuts.  

I could go on and on, the list is nearly endless, but you get the idea.
It’s simple, buyers are waiting for the right price.  And these are the lucky one’s, because eventually they got-it right and sold.

On the other hand, when the price is right right off the bat, there’s no waiting. And though they come along less often, if you’re a buyer you need to recognize this too, cause these won’t wait for you.

5343 N Ventana Overlook Pl was listed for $899,000 in March, went to contract in April and sold for $875,000 with no price cuts.

Likewise 6400 N Placita Del Zopilote in Alta Vista. It was listed for $949,000 in May, went to contract 8 days later and sold for $899,000, also with no price cuts.

7481 N Moon Spirit Ln, listed for $825,000 and sold $825,000 in one day.

7148 N Cathedral Rock Pl was listed for $1,069,000 in April and immediately went to contract with multiple offers and sold for $1,049,000 soon after.

The list of well priced homes is much shorter, but, with time and patience it will grow. Because there’s no doubt, buyers are winning and will continue to win the waiting game.

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9th time’s the charm

5771 N Campbell Ave is at it again. I don’t see the attraction, but apparently quite a few others do, because it’s gone to contract again and again and again today, for the 3rd, 4th, 5th, … time.

If I were a buyer looking to put a contract on this house I’d want to know why it’s fallen out of contract every time it’s gone in in the last 10 months. But then again, it’s a short sale, so probably nobody knows.

This is the notorious Kevin Howard designed spec home that sold for $2.2 in February 07 and was then listed as short sale 10 months later for $1.1. And in that short time they did a good job of trashing it.

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it’s so slow

that in the last 7 days just 2 homes listed above the median ($600k) have gone to contract – and at $639,000 & $650,000, they just squeaked by.

One is 6171 N Via Del Pichon in La Paloma, and who knows why, after 402 days on the market, it went now, but it did. listed at $639,000. 

The other is 6244 N Ventana View Pl at the Ridge At Ventana Canyon at $650,000 after just 18 days on market. This sold for $699,000 in 06 so it’ll be interesting to see where it closes, if it closes.

With those 2 gone, assuming they stay gone, we’re down to 256 for sale above $600. Yippeee!

list to contract in 11 days

3861 N Four Winds Dr sold today for it’s $475,000 list price after just 11 days on the market - because it’s a nice, well-maintained and updated house, at a fair price. And at $475 it's at the low-end of the foothills market.

2583 sf/$184/sf/4 Bdr/3 Bth//masonry construction/.88 acres/with over $100,000 in upgrades, new appliances, air conditioner/heat pump, pool, cabinets/more

All that for $475,000. Wow!

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and more problems caused by inconsistencies with square footage

PK writes;

When we purchased our house in February, we ran into both issues, the square footage on the loan was reduced by almost 500 sq ft - A former carport that had been remodeled was deemed storage not living space.

The guest house also caused an issue, since it was attached to the house and had a stove. I still don't understand why but having a second kitchen was deemed undesirable.

Bottom line, they were picking apart the appraisal item by item. The deal collapsed several times. With out the sheer tenacity of us, the seller, both brokers and especially our mortgage broker, the deal would never have proceeded. It literally was a war of wills that lasted for months.

Unless you have cash, be prepared to fight for what you want. There are some incredible deals out there but you have to be prepared and be willing to battle to make it happen.

inconsistencies with square footage

In response to my post, size matters, a reader, who sounds as if they’ve been down this road before, wrote in with a good point;

Well said! However the one point not mentioned is regarding financing. In today's challenging financial climate, mortgage companies are also scrutinizing inconsistencies with square footage and either will not lend if not properly permitted or if willing to lend, the appraisal must be for the "correct", often lower square footage.  That being the case, it may not appraise out at the price desired for a 3400 sq ft house, but only appraise for a 2900 sq ft house, which creates a whole new issue.

The moral of the story is, sellers, agents and buyers need to be upfront, honest and do the necessary homework before listing and/or buying property.

Amen.

the bigger they are

5151 N Calle Ladero started out almost one year ago listed for $2,590,000, and is, after yet a another $100,000 cut, available today for $1,495,000.

And 6840 N Vista Del Pueblo, the house with the indoor racquet ball court, you know the one, up in Finisterra.  It was at the hilarious price of $2,950,000 in February 07, and is now available for a more sober $999,500. Back in the $2.950 listing the property was described as, “Complete Remodel is completed. New Landscape just installed.” What they failed to mention is that the Complete Remodel was completed maybe 20 years ago. Either that, or it aged really fast.

And not beating around the bush, 5550 N Via Elena, just cut it’s price almost 500 thou to $1,475,000. This is an interesting 1970 contemporary on a hilltop in the old foothills. Masonry construction, 5345sf, 5 Bdr.

With all these price cuts the median list price in the foothills in now $600,000 – down from $649,000 earlier this year.

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size matters

Recently I’ve been involved in a couple of transactions where the square footage of the house, as indicated in the listing, was considerably different, and always larger, than the square footage as shown by the Pima County tax assessor.

There are a few reasons why this occurs, some legitimate, others questionable, at best.

In Tucson, all MLS listings indicate the square footage and the source of that square footage figure. The source can be the tax assessor, the home owner, an appraiser, the floor plan company that measured the house and did the floor plan, or it can be listed as Other, whatever that is.

The most reputable source is the tax assessor. If the listing shows 3400 sf and the assessor shows 3400 sf, it’s reasonably certain that the entire house was built with Pima county permits and that county inspections were performed during construction.

In the questionable category, for example, when the listing shows 3400 sf and the assessor shows 2900, there’s probably something amiss. And what may be amiss is that a room was added without the benefit of building permits and county inspections. Or, more often, an existing space that was not heated/cooled, and therefore not considered living space - like a workshop, storage room or garage - was converted to a rec room or guest bedroom, also without benefit of permits, and AC and heat were piped in, and it’s now being listed as ‘living space’ by the owner.

And however cozy it may be, in either case, Pima county is not aware of, and has not approved, that 500 sf of additional ‘living space’. And if you buy the house, you inherit the liability and the responsibility of having the county inspect the property and doing what needs to be done to bring it up to code. And if you don’t, when you decide to sell the house you’ll be obligated to disclose, as is the current owner/seller, that the addition or conversion was done without county permits and approval. And if the house is on a septic system and the added space is a bedroom, the county will also likely require that a new larger septic be installed.

In the worst case scenario, of an addition built without county approval and in flagrant violation of the building codes, it’s possible for the county to require you to tear down the non-complying structure.

Other, more benign, differences in square footage occur when an appraiser or the floor plan company or even the owner measures the house and comes up with a figure that differs slightly, maybe 150sf or so, from the assessor. That’s fairly normal. Have any three people measure a house and they’ll almost certainly come up with three slightly different measurements. And it’s probably nothing to be concerned about.

The big square footage differences usually crop up in older homes that have been fussed with over the years, back before anyone took this stuff too seriously. But, now and then, I’ve seen them play with the square footage in brand new one’s too. 

A few years ago I represented the buyers of a brand new spec home that was listed as 3929sf and for over a million $$. But it sure didn’t feel like 3929 sf, unless you counted the 3rd garage bay that had a vent for heat & AC, the floor painted and some furniture thrown in there as a kind of rec room featuring a quick-get-away roll-up garage door.

And in the amazing, but true, and truly greedy department, they not only counted that garage bay as living space – they also listed the house as having a 3 car garage. The ultimate flex space I guess.

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a lull in the action

Not much happening these last few days. And not even anything worth mentioning from a weekend’s worth of Realtor rabble-rousing.

So, instead, how about a few frivolous foothills facts,
Of the 266 homes sold this year, how many- have, are or were,

a pool – 136

0-3 bedrooms – 140

4 or more – 126

1 story – 225

air conditioning – 262

evaporative cooling – 57

both - 55

a laundry room – 205

a sewer connection – 219

septic – 47

cable – 250

on an unpaved street – 6

in a gated community – 69

permit horses – 13

in a flood zone – 2

range priced – 17

a carport – 21

were on keysafe – 223

frame stucco construction – 143

masonry/adobe construction – 109

combo construction - 13

a flat, built-up reflective roof – 151

a tile roof – 55

asphalt shingle roof – 18

Gas heat – 198

Electric heat – 63

Mediterranean style – 13

Sante Fe style – 15

Southwestern style – 38

Spanish style – 6

Territorial style – 46

Ranch style – 45

Contemporary style – 92
(No way, even with the loosest interpretation, I bet there weren’t a dozen true contemporaries)

in District 16 schools – 166

vacant – 143

Maybe it’ll pick up tomorrow. til then, stay cool and enjoy the monsoons!

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how’s Shadow Hills holding up

Long popular as a family-friendly upper middle class community in the Foothills, Shadow Hills has taken it’s lumps in the downturn.

With it’s flat terrain and cul-de-sac streets – that are nice n’ safe for kids to play – and affordable family sized homes on large lots, all conveniently located in District 16 schools, Shadow Hills is unique in the Foothills. And, because of that, was thought by some to be more resilient to the vagaries of the market. That’s, was thought, but no longer is thought.

Looking at sales over the past 5 years- Jan 1 to July 19th, with average/median sold & $/sf sold prices.

09 – 5 sold, - $493,980/$485,000, $192/sf

08 – 13 sold - $691,615/$660,000, $217/sf

07 – 15 sold - $654,533/$656,500, $229/sf

06 – 10 sold - $653,428/$646,500, $221/sf

05 -  8 sold -  $632,813/$650,000, $203/sf

So, unique though it may be, sales in Shadow Hills are way down and prices have taken a big hit too.

Foothills home sales, are we there yet

A reader wrote in, “you’ve been reporting positive news for sales at both the high and low-end. Does this mean we’ve turned the corner.”

I have been reporting some positive news, because some positive things have happened. But no, I don’t think we’ve turned the corner, as a matter of fact, I don’t think we’ve even gotten to the corner.

Here, look at sales for the last 10 years; pre-boom, boom and post boom.

Foothills Home Sales; Jan 1 – July 18

09 – 264

08 – 329

07 – 384

06 – 444

05 – 625

04 – 582

03 – 545

02 – 466

01 – 488

00 – 513

Sales are down 49% from nine years ago. Heck, hardly anyone had even heard of the Foothills nine years ago and almost twice as many homes sold then as now.

Based on sales for the last 30 days the overall inventory is at about 10 months. Up to $500k it’s about 7 months, at $500 to $999 it’s at 10 months, and at $1.0 + it’s at 59 months.

So it’s better than it was a few months ago. The low-end of the market is doing OK, the high-end has had a recent spurt, but that’s from the lowest of lows, and the middle is plodding along uneventfully.

And part of the improvement is due to all the homes that have been withdrawn from the market for summer and have yet to return. Those side-lined homes, which will likely return in dribs and drabs, are painting a rosier picture of inventory than is really the case. And except for $0 to $500, the picture ain't all that rosy.

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to dream the impossible dream

4200 N Painted Quail Pl, in Quail Canyon, was withdrawn today after two years on and off the market. It’s last and lowest list price was $1,499,900 ($379/sf) down from $1,950,000 ($493/sf) when it was first listed in May 07. So two years, a big price cut and still no sale.

What gives, I wonder why this one didn’t sell?

Let’s see. Going back to January 06, the highest sale in Quail Canyon was $700,000, hmmm, the next highest was $640,000,
hmmm -hmmm. And after those high water marks, everything else that sold in there, and there were 26 sales, sold for $400,000 or less, most of them in the $2’s and $3’s. oh really. That’s $200,000 and $300,000, not 2 and 3 million. And everything for sale in Quail Canyon is $265,000 to $445,000.

dream on

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15 in escrow at a million +

At a million + these are the homes buyers are buying right now in the Tucson Foothills.

-7579 E Felicity Pl, UnSubdivided, $1,100,000 5370sf $205/sf

-6160 N Calle De La Culebra, Shadow Hills $1,199,000 4,966sf $241/sf

-1631 E Calle El Cid, Santa Catalina Est, $1,149,000, 5407sf $212/sf

-6424 N Placita Del Zopilote, Alta Vista, $1,175,000, 3224sf $364/sf

-**7063 N Mission Hill Ln, Skyline CC Est, $1,200,000, 4028sf $298/sf

-6424 N Desert Wind Cir, Ventana Cyn, $1,315,000, 4,360sf $302/sf

-5136 N Calle Ladero, Cat Fthls Est, $1,385,000, 5,577sf $248/sf

-3722 E Camino De Jaime,Bellas Catalinas, $1,395,000, 4006sf $348/sf

-7200 E Little Savannah Ln,UnSubdivided, $1,400,000, 5028sf $278/sf

-2591 E Calle Sin Ruido, Sin Vacas, $1,495,000, 4,370sf $342/sf

-2067 E Desert Garden Dr, Pima Cyn, $1,795,000, 4288sf $419/sf

-1783 E Sahuaro Blossom, Pima Cyn, $2,495,000, 7065sf $353/sf

-3295 E Camino Juan Paisano, La Paloma, $1,695,000, 5,133sf $330/sf

-6121 N Paseo Zaldivar, Alta Vista, $2,250,000, 5,700sf $395/sf

-6015 N Camino Preciado, La Paloma, $3,450,000, 7,266sf $474/sf

So unlike recent million$+ sales, which were concentrated in Pima Cyn, these newer contracts cover a wide swath of Foothills communities, including Pima Cyn.

Taken together, the average list price is $1,633,200, the median $1,395,000 and $321/sf. **and just one short sale in the group.

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to find your Foothills home

when was the last time a house sold for $3.2mil, or more, in the Foothills

Well not counting today, that would be October 2007.

So it’s been a long dry stretch, but today the magnificent
Hacienda La Flor Del Desierto in Cobo Catalina Hills sold for
$3,200,000 - $439/sf, that’s off a $3,500,000 list.

Built 1998/masonry construction/7294 sf/7 BDR/7 BTH/6+ acres/with craftsmanship and authentic materials seldom seen

I had the pleasure of showing this house a while ago and it is unique and magnificent and the setting is to die for. 

And kudos to Russell Long the listing  agent.

See it here> Hacienda La Flor Del Desierto
**Link will expire on 8/14/09**

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the pendulum is swinging

It is in Pima Canyon anyway.
A few months ago there were 20 something homes for sale in Pima Canyon, none under contract and none sold in the previous six months. A very bleak outlook, which I commented on frequently. 

Since then, four homes have sold and two more are under contract, leaving fifteen for sale, or just a 7 1/2 month supply of homes in PC. Which is extraordinary, because just a few months ago the months of inventory was, with no sales, incalculable. And in the Foothills overall, million+ inventory is at a 34 month supply.

Not impressed. How about this.
A total of 7 homes sold for a million+ in the last 2 months in the Foothills. 4 of them were in Pima Canyon.

Not a one was in Cat 10, Ventana CC, Skyline CC, Cobblestone, Hacienda de Sol estates, the Canyons or La Paloma. Nothing in Coronado Foothills estates, Catalina Foothills estates, La Puerta or Sabino Mountain, nothing.

57% of recent high-end sales were in Pima Canyon. And none were short sales, foreclosures or any of that riff-raff.

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sold, for list or more

4960 N Avenida De Vizcaya, a foreclosure in Hacienda del Sol Estates sold today for $577,250 ($185/sf) and $2,250 over list. And I wonder why.

In 2001 it was listed for a while at $779,000, but never sold, and left the market until about 4 months ago. It’s not a bad house, except it’s cheek-to-jowl with entrance/exit gate on it’s south side and Hacienda del Sol road on it’s eastern border. Things that will never get any better and can’t be changed.

And another foreclosure in Cobo Catalina Hills sold today.
It’s on 6.3 acres high up in foothills with beautiful mountain and city views. It went for list price, $665,900, and in my opinion the buyers got a very special property and a really good deal. The house is 3549 sq ft, with another 2500 sf of unpermitted additions, and in need of renovation, fix up, remodeling, etc. Nevertheless, where are you going to find 6 acres in a prime foothills location for $665,900. That’s at 7501 N Christie Dr.

See them both here> sold for list or more
**link will expire on 8/13/09**

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Pima Canyon on a tear

After 839 days on the market, 1783 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl in Pima Canyon, has gone to contract on this hot day in July.

Listed for $2,495,000 ($353/sf) it’s a spec home/built 2006/never lived in/7065 sf/6 BDR/5.5 BTHS

Just last week I mentioned that things had popped a bit in PC lately, how are things doin’ in Pima Canyon, and now here we go again.

And this is really odd and coincidental, but yesterday a reader emailed me about this house wondering why it hadn’t sold. He thought it was a reasonably good value and a heck of house. Hell if I know, but I did mention there hasn’t been much of a market for 7000+ sf homes – 20 for sale and just 4 sold in the last 18 months, so 90 or so months of inventory. eek!

So these guys got lucky, good for them and for Russell Long the listing agent. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Congratulations to all.

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more action at the high-end

A wonderful house at 3722 E Camino De Jaime in Bellas Catalinas went to contract today. I’ve shown this house a couple of times and, for this reason or that, it wasn’t quite right for my buyers but we all really admired it.

2008 built/4006 sf/4 BDR/4.5 BTHS/listed $1,395,000/$348/sf/277 DOM and now, on this hot day in July, it’s gone. And if this closes for anything near the list price, I believe it’ll be the high-water mark for Bellas Catalinas.  
See it here, you never know> 3722 E Camino De Jaime

And 4839 E Placita Provida sold today for $900,000 ($271/sf) from a $999,999 list. That doesn’t sound too bad, except the sellers paid $1,152,599 for it in September 07, so 22% off + closing costs – that, unfortunately, is about where things were and are.

See it here> 4839 E Placita Provida
**link will expire on 8/13/09**

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what’s under contract

At the moment there are 100 homes under contract in the Foothills and they’re divided into 3 groups.

In the first group are homes labeled ACTIVE CAPA – there are 7.
These are either short sales, where the owner has accepted the offer, but the lender, who has final approval has not yet accepted it. And often does not. Or, in one case, a sale that is contingent on the buyer first selling their home. Both of these are iffy  propositions.
For the 7 Active Capa’s;
average list $451,600/$419,000 median.
Low Price $229,000/High $700,000

Next are homes that are ACTIVE CONTINGENT – 59 in this group
Active contingent indicates the buyer and seller have agreed on price and terms and the transaction is in the inspection period - subject to a satisfactory resolution of any inspection issues and also contingent on lender financing. In the good old days, probably 90+% of these closed escrow. Not these days. What with buyers being more demanding and lenders less prone to lend, these deals are falling through at record rates.
For the 59 Active Contingent’s:
Average list $546,358/median $479,000.
Low price $207,000/High $1,795,000
6 are listed above $1.0, 33 below $500, leaving 20 in the $500 to just under a million range. 

Last are those tagged PENDING – 34 are PENDING
They are PENDING close of escrow. Presumably, any and all inspection issues have been satisfactorily resolved, lender financing has been approved and all parties are preparing to sign on the dotted line. As sure of a sure thing as there is.
For the 34 PENDING;
Average list $817,225/median $459,008
Low price $200,000/High $3,500,000
8 are listed above $1.0, with 3 above $2.0, 21 are listed under $500, with the 10 remaining in the $500 to $1.0 range.
______________________________________________________________

In summary, of the 100 homes under contract;
58% are priced at $0 to $499
28% at $500 to $999
14% at $1.0 and up

How does that stack up against the 515 homes still for sale.
38% (196 homes) are priced at $0 to $499
39% (199 homes) are priced at $500 to $999
23% (120 homes) are priced at $1.0 & Up.

So the beat goes on.
While $0 to $499 represents just 38% of current inventory – it accounts for 58% of current contracts. If this keeps up demand may begin to outstrip supply.

While the high-end is stuck in reverse – with 23% of the homes for sale, it’s turning in just 14% of the contracts.

On the other hand, since Jan 1 just 20 homes have sold at $1.0 +, and we’ve now got 14 under contract.

Not bad for a hot day in July.

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out with the old in with the new

In Pima Canyon, 2047 E Desert Garden Dr expired today after 500 days on the market. Listed in February 08 for $1,749,000 it went out today at $1,599,000, or $415/sf.  Nice house, gorgeous lot, but apparently not irresistible, not at that price anyway.

Meanwhile, just down the road apiece, 1887 E Desert Garden Dr has come along to fill the gap. And you may like it’s price better too. It’s a brand new listing, - $1,495,000/$352/sf/built 2000/4243 sf/4 bdr/4 bth/pool & spa. Last sold in January 01, this must have been one of the first houses to sell in PC when it opened its pearly gates in 2001.

Back then it went for $1,066,000, and counting on my fingers and toes, the current list price sounds like it might even be in the ballpark.

See it here> 1887 E Desert Garden Dr

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dirt, dishes and doggy do-do

A reader, who’s out in our glorious 106 degree weather shopping for a home, wrote in with this observation,

‘ I couldn't help but comment on a strange thing I have found in many homes that we have seen.  Mind you, these are not "cheap" homes, but homes in the $700,000 to 1,000,000 range.  I am amazed at how many sellers do not CLEAN THEIR HOMES!  Seriously.  You know your house is being shown.  Would it hurt to scrub the showers and get the mildew out of the grout?  Clear the clutter on the kitchen countertops?  Try to clean the slobber that their humongous dogs have left all over windows and sliding doors?  Also, if you have already moved out of the house you are selling, perhaps someone can come out every once in a while to clean out the multitude of dead crickets and roaches that inevitably will meet their demise in a hot and empty house?  It has been unbelievable.’

All good advice. But my explanation for this messy home syndrome was that so many homes have been on the market for so long that sellers have become dejected and have lost their enthusiasm. And with showings so few and far between, particularly now that it's 106 in the shade, who’s worried about tidiness when they’re wondering if they’ll ever even have another showing.

So try to look past the dirt, the dishes and the doggy do-do and turn it into a deal to your advantage.

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a less gaping gap

Back in January I talked about the gaping gap between the median list price of the homes for sale in the Foothills, and the median sold price of those Sold in the last three months.

Back then the median list was $639,000 - the median sold $400,000 –for a 37% gap.

And average prices were worse yet- $919,942- list/$473,097-sold, 
for a 48% gap. As if buyers and sellers were on different planets.

Well they’re still worlds apart, but, looking at it today, things have improved some.

The median list has dropped to $600,000, while the median sold has inched up to $427,500, for a tad less gaping 29% gap.

Average list and sold prices have also closed ranks a bit: 
$895,492- list/$522,967- sold, for a, be thankful for small favors, 
41% gap.

The sold prices are for the last three months, mid April thru today. Any wagers on where list & sold prices will be two months from now.

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defying gravity at the high-end

6424 N Placita Del Zopilote, listed at $1,175,000 went to contract today after 189 days. And though we’ll have to wait and see what it went for, at $364/sf it’s a break-away from the pack price from recent sales in Alta Vista. The 5 others sold this year went for: $174, $122, $221, $228 and $270/sf.

But more interesting yet is it last sold in June 06 for $1,045,000 and, as far as I can tell, nothing of consequence was done to it to justify the leap in price. But the sellers & buyers thought it was worth it, and that’s what counts. Assuming there’s a mortgage, let’s hope the bank agrees.

It looks like a very attractive house, and it has a guest house,
a 2 BDR/2 BTH guest house, which is rare in the Foothills and even more rare in Alta Vista. So maybe that’s it.

See for yourself> 6424 N Placita Del Zopilote
**the link will expire on 8/12/09**

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I may be barking up the wrong tree

In response to my piece about % of sale price/list price, a reader, who is also a buyer I’m working with, wrote in;

You asked whether buyers would be interested in the "correct" % of list. I have thought about this a bit and concluded that I don't care what the original list price was (and therefore the % against original list). 

I am much more interested in current sales prices relative to current list prices.  Those numbers give me some idea of what the current market is like.  The fact that someone put a home on the market two years ago and ended up selling at 60% of the original list price is not very useful to me as buyer.  May have some relevance to agents, but not to me.

Thank you, that’s interesting, surprising, but interesting.
Please, let’s hear more.

Sold! for 94% of list price, well sort of

The other day I mentioned that the % of sale price/list price as calculated by the MLS is based on the latest list price (that’s after price cuts & relisting & re-relisting) – rather than on the original list price. And I said, were it calculated on the original list, the % sale price/list price would be much-much lower, often astonishingly lower.

And a reader wanted to know, “how much lower would it be “

Looking at the homes sold for $850,000 or more since Jan 1, here’s how the % of sale price is reported and what it would be if the original list price was part of the picture:

-5551 N Camino Real- Sold $850,000
@ original list $1,449,000 it sold for 59% of list
list at sale $997,235 it sold for 85% of list as reported

-4351 E Pinnacle Ridge Pl - Sold $850,000
@ original list $999,900 it sold for 85% of list
list at sale $899,000 it sold for 94% as reported

-4070 N Palo Verde Blvd - Sold $860,000
@ original list $995,000 it sold for 86% of list
list at sale $895,000 it sold for 96% as reported

-5343 N Ventana Overlook Pl- Sold $875,000
@ original list $899,000 it sold for 97% of list
list at sale $899,000 it sold for 97% as reported

-5527 N Camino Real - sold $895,000  
@ original list $1,649,000 it sold for 54%
list at sale $1,195,000 it sold for 75% as reported 

-6400 N Placita Del Zopilote - Sold $899,000
@ original list $949,000 it sold for 95%
list at sale $949,000 it sold for 95% as reported 

-3550 E Camino A Los Vientos - Sold $900,000 
@ original list $2,450,000 it sold for 37%
list at sale $1,800,000 it sold for 50% as reported

-5128 N Calle Ladero – Sold 920,000
@ original list $1,650,000 it sold for 56%
list at sale $998,000 it sold for 92% as reported

-4911 N Camino Antonio – Sold $1,050,000
@ original list $1,775,000 it sold for 59%
list at sale $1,375,000 it sold for 76% as reported

I could go on and on, but you get the idea. As reported, the % of sale price/list price presents a more positive picture, or, giving the benefit of the doubt, just a partial picture, of how homes are selling and how the market’s really doing.

As a buyer, is this information you’d like to have, information that would be useful and that you feel you have a right to have. I would think so, and I’m not sure how anyone could make a good case for not making it readily available. With the mess the real estate market is mired in, is withholding information about market conditions going to help move things along. What do you think.

PS- your agent can provide this information and, I’m sure, will gladly do so. It’s just tedious, because the listing history needs to be looked up and the %’s calculated for each house individually.

they’re dropping like high-price listings

Since June 30th 23 listings priced $900,000 and up have either expired or been withdrawn and, so far, just 10 have been relisted – taking a bigger bite out of our high-end inventory than sales have lately.  

Gone for now are;

6622 N LONGFELLOW Dr/$989,000/235 DOM
2611 E Calle Sin Desengano/$995,000/83 DOM
4700 N CAMINO SUMO/$995,000/174 DOM
4920 N Calle Faja/$995,500/327 DOM
4954 N Camino Antonio/$1,250,000/177 DOM
4081 N Quail Canyon Dr/$1,299,000/406 DOM
6831 N Skyway Dr/$1,299,500/302 DOM
4162 N Quail Canyon Dr/$1,335,000/152 DOM
6273 N Desert Moon Lp/$1,425,000/290 DOM
4150 E La Paloma Dr/$1,499,000/442 DOM
3401 E Camino A Los Vientos/$2,250,000/151 DOM
6755 N Hole In The Wall Way/$2,750,000/228 DOM
2112 E Sentry Ridge Ct/$4,499,000/498 DOM

It’s no fun to have tried and failed, but most of these homes have been on the market for a long long time and, let’s face it, there’s got to be some relief in finally facing the facts, giving it up and getting on with your life. That is, as long as you don’t need to sell.

And if you’ve had your eye on one of these homes and have been waiting for just the right moment to pounce, don’t despair. I’d imagine that even though it’s off the market, the owners would be tickled pink to make a deal.

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who ya gonna believe

Every month I participate in a housing survey conducted by Credit Suisse that looks at 40 markets across the U.S.

Here are a few highlights from last months survey results of Tucson agents.

Tucson, AZ

Traffic falls below agents’ expectations
44% of agents said traffic was in line with expectations, 34% said it was below expectations and 22% said it was above expectations

Prices and incentives show signs of stabilization
62% of agents said prices were unchanged while 19% said they
declined sequentially and 19% said they increased

Length of time needed to sell a home increased – a negative indicator for future pricing trends
51% of agents said the length of time needed to sell a home was
unchanged from last month, 30% of agents said the time to sell was longer, and 19% said it was shorter
_____________________________________________________________________

 And for more on who ya gonna believe,
this just in,

 The Arizona Republic reports,
Tucson real-estate agents in fraud suit

‘A consumer fraud lawsuit has been filed against a group of Tucson real-estate agents, loan officers and real estate-related businesses accused of running a multimillion-dollar fraud scheme that led to 130 foreclosures.’

According to the story the  Defendants are:

• Andrew Silverstein, former Re/Max All Executives real-estate agent.

• VinLan Ventures.

• Re/Max All Executives. Vince Volpe, Re/Max All Executives.

• Tucson Mortgage: William "Bill" Anastapolous, owner of Tucson Mortgage. Thomas Piazza, Tucson Mortgage loan officer. Dave Klein, former Tucson Mortgage loan originator.

• WGA Enterprises LLC.

• Amaury Leon, Infinity Funding loan officer.

• Darren Breen, Red House Lending loan officer.

And the same story from our own Arizona Daily Star
Tucson real-estate agents in fraud suit

‘Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard has sued a group of Tucson real estate agents and businesses, alleging the group devised a three-pronged scheme using rent-to-own properties to defraud investors, lenders and home buyers.’
_______________________________________________________________

This doesn’t bode well for any of the defendants, but since Vince Volpe is, or was until recently, the big cheese, that is, the manager and broker for ReMax, this may present a new challenge to their PR and recruiting efforts. oh, and throw the book at the bums.

they’ll soon be beating down the doors

After weeding it down to the 50 top spots in the U.S. to retire, BusinessWeek.com chose Tucson as # 1.

America's Best Affordable Places to Retire

how are things doin’ in Pima Canyon

The short answer is, a lot more than was doin' a few months ago.
Up until May nothing had sold in Pima Canyon since last October, so about seven months with no sales, nothing under contract and 20 something homes waiting for a buyer.

But since mid May things have popped a bit in PC. 4 homes have sold, the latest just today and another is under contract, cutting the inventory down to 15 for sale. But the plot thickens, because 9 of those 15 are spec homes. Yes, 9 specs in PC alone. (Note, not one of the sales was a distress sale and none of those currently listed are either)

And 2 other biggies are unaccounted for. They expired last month in PC and have yet to return.  One was a spec priced at $3,995,000, where did it go, and the other a re-sale listed for $4,499,000.

And here’s a question for all you Pima Canyon fans. Whatever happened to the two Tara-Sun built, but not completed, spec homes that sat side-by-side on the eastern fringe of PC on Calle Sin Envidia. One listed for $2.0, the other for $1.8.

As I recall, during their last few weeks on the market, they were listed as short sales with construction to be completed by the buyer. Then puff, they were withdrawn, never to be seen again. What happened. Have the lenders really been dickering for 8 months now, quite possible, or maybe they’re just waiting for the market to turn. If so, get in line.

a textbook example of prices, then and now

6595 E Placita Alhaja sold last June for $785,000 and today for $640,000- minus 18.5%. A+

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the 1st six months

Six months worth of data really tells the story. It flattens out the blips, dips and peculiarities of monthly sales and - good, bad or otherwise - gives you a solid, dependable look at what’s what in the marketplace.

for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills, January to June

	2009	2008	2007
# sold	235	303	356
@0-$499	150	132	131
@500-$999	66	136	166
@ $1.0+	19	35	59
Avg Sold	$517,517	$646,425	$705,430
Med Sold	$425,000	$535,000	$550,978
Avg $/sf	$184	$220	$239

-Overall sales are down 34% since Jan/June 07
-while sales @ $1.0+ are down 68%

On the other hand, even though 07 outsold 09 by 121 homes overall, 19 more homes sold in 09 @0 -$499, than did in 07. 

Looking at the Jan/June mix of sales by price range:
$0 - $499 
in 09 was 64% of total sales & 37% in 07

$500 - $999
in 09 was 28% of total sales & 47% in 07

$1.0 +
in 09 was 8% of total sales & 17% in 07

So the beat goes on, with a much higher % of sales at the low-end and a correspondingly lower share at the high-end.

-Average Sold price is down (almost) 27% from 07
-Median sold is down 23%
-Avg/sf is down 23%

And in $1.0+ market,
-in 07, homes at $1.0+ sold for an average of $1,504,197
-this year they went for an average of $1,250,474, down 17%

-in 07, median sale price at $1.0+ was $1,362,500
-this year it’s $1,150,000, down almost 16%

So even though the high-end is in much worse shape than the rest of the market, in terms of slower sales and higher inventory, price slippage has been less than the overall market
-17% vs. -27%.

And a fair amount of that slippage is due to high-end, spec home/short sale/foreclosures, selling on the cheap. And less than you might think to high-end sellers dropping their prices.

Oh they’ve cut their prices, but so many of those cuts were from sky-high height of the market levels, that they’ve yet to get anywhere near to where the market, or what remnants of a market there is, is today. 

And with deeper pockets and the occasional good sale here and another there, high-end sellers continue to dupe themselves into believing it’ll all be OK. Instead, I think it’s plain as day, don't you, we’ll see more foreclosures, more short sales and even more pressure on prices as time goes by.

speaking of foreclosures

A foreclosure at 7561 Calle Sin Desengano is about to embark on it’s maiden voyage in the choppy seas of lender owned escrow.

On the market since May 08 – not so long really, as these thing go -but initially burdened with a sticker shock price of $1,700,000, it’s gone to escrow today for the first time. That’s after many price cuts and dropping to $970,000 just the other day, and Bingo! So just 43% off that hoped-for $1.7.

built 1997/5793 sq. ft/4 beds/4.5 baths/5 car garage/pool-spa/gated Sin Vacas/$167/sf @ list

see it here, you never know, it may come round again>7561 Calle Sin Desengano  **link will expire August 6, 2009** 

Bon voyage!

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hello, is anyone minding the store

5771 N Campbell Ave, a short sale that’s been in and out of escrow more times than is worth counting, has, after another 5 week stint in escrow, once again returned to the market. This is the infamous Campbell Ave house that sold for $2.2 in 07 and 10 months later was listed as a short sale for $1.1. With this latest failure to sell, they’ve dropped the price $99 thou to $900,000. But like I said, this place has been in and out of escrow umpteen times, at $1.1 and at $999, and presumably by many different buyers, yet every time it’s failed to sell. Is it possible there’s a problem here that’s just being ignored.

A similar bum deal at 3140 E Via Celeste. It too is a short sale that went to contract on May 5th – sat around in escrow for 2 months – and returned to the market yesterday, unsold, to start all over again. And it too has come back with a price cut, from $865 to $799.
Does it really need to take two months to figure out whether or not the deal should fly.

those damn short sales, because they’re so poorly managed by the lenders, they’re a waste of everyone’s time, energy and money.

Recently I represented buyers on a foreclosure property – in theory, a simpler, more straightforward transaction. However, the lender rejected my buyers offer of $550,000 yet, a month or so later, turned the property over to an auction house and accepted a high bid of $440,000. Whose $110,000 was that that slipped through the cracks.

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run don’t walk

It sold for $839,000 in six days in 2006 and went on sale today for $675,000 to $725,000. Yes, one of those annoying range-priced homes, though in this case I think they’ll make a go of it. And they’ve sunk some money into it too, because it appears to have been remodeled, with a nice new kitchen & new floors, since that 06 sale.

Built 1996/2941 sq ft/4 beds/3 baths/.890 acres/in gated Sin Vacas/$229/sf.

see it here> 2530 E Calle Sin Pecado

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to search all Foothills homes

like it or not, two markets at the upper-end in the foothills

There’s the normal resale market and the short sale/foreclosure/spec home market.

Since Jan 1, 30 homes have sold for $850,000 or more in the Foothills. And of the 30, 22 were normal re-sale sales, that is, they were not short sales, foreclosures or spec homes. The remaining 8 were either shorts sales, foreclosures or spec homes, or, more often than not, a combo – a spec home that’s also a short sale, or foreclosure. 

Looking at the 22 normal sales:

Average List Price was - $1,278,318
Average Sold Price was- $1,170,295

So normal sales sold for an average of 91.55% of list price**
and for an average of $282/sf 

For the 8 spec home/foreclosure/short sales:

Average List Price was - $1,392,529
Average Sold Price was - $981,250

They sold for an average of just 70.47% of list price**
and for an average of just $209/sf – or 26% less/sf than normal sales.

And though they were listed for 9% more than normal sales, short/foreclosure/spec homes sold for 16% less than normal sales.

Depending on what side of the fence you’re on, this two market thing may or may not be good news. But it is what it is.

So just because that spec home/foreclosure down the street sold for $187/sf, don’t be surprised if the normal sale you’re looking at laughs out loud at your so-called ‘comparable’ offer. I know, having been laughed-at more than once, it happens.

**in all cases, list price data reflects the latest list price at which a home sold- not the original list- because, for some good reason, the MLS has chosen to ignore the original list price. Were the figures based on the original list, in every case, the % sale price/list price would be much-much lower, often astonishingly lower.

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to search all Foothills homes

comcast service down again

Can't post today- and who knows when-last time it took Comcast 6 visits to get my service up & running. This is posted from my Blackberry

UPDATE, ABOUT 8 HOURS LATER; My service has been restored. Thank you Comcast. Thank you, thank you. The odd thing is, when I called Comcast today and reported I had no internet, no TV, no nothin- the customer service representative informed me that there was no outage in my area, so the problem must be at my house. And of course, therefore, I would need the dreaded service call in order to get things up and running again. oie vey. That was planned for tomorrow, conveniently, sometime between 1Pm to 5PM. And no one from Comcast showed up today ahead of schedule, no repairman, no nothing. Yet somehow the service has been restored, even though the problem was at my house and not due to an outage in the area. You gotta love it,

June home sales this year, last year and the year before

This is for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills;

	June 09	June 08	June 07
total Sold	48	57	79
@ 0-$499	30	20	27
@$500-999	15	31	34
@$1.0 - up	3	6	18
Avg sold	$531,356	$612,394	$756,069
Med sold	$465,000	$575,000	$602,000
$$ value	$25,505,100	$34,906,450	$59,729,469

In the # of homes sold department- 
June 09 is down 16% from June 08 and 39% from 07

But what has also changed dramatically is the mix of sales by price-
This June- $0- $499 was 62.5% of sales vs. 33% in June 07
This June- $500- $999 was 31% of sales vs. 43% in June 07
This June- $1.0+ was just 6% of sales vs. 23% in June 07

So not only are fewer homes selling, but a much higher % of sales are at the low end of the market with a dramatically lower share at the high-end.

If someone were to tell you there was an 11 month supply of homes for sale in the Foothills – you might think- hmmm, not great, but nothing to pull my hair out over either– they’d be correct.
525 for sale ÷ 48 sold (last month) = 11 months supply

But looking a little further you’d find the lopsided sales picture has contributed to a lopsided supply of homes for sale.
At the current rate of sales, at-
$0 - $499, with 195 for sale = a 6.5 month supply of homes;  
that’s pretty great, a nearly perfectly balanced market. 
$500 - $999, with 207 for sale = a 13.8 month supply; a strong buyers market 
and at $1.0 & Up, with 123 for sale = a 41 month supply; if you’re trying to sell at this price range, yes, it’s time to start pulling your hair out

So nothing is at 11 months supply, but, glommed together, everything is. That's the problem with averages.

Here's some more.

Average & Median sold prices are down 29% and 23% from 07

And the $$ value of homes sold this June is down a whopping 57% from June 07

$/sf you say,
sure, the average for June 07 was $239/sf, in 08 $207/sf and for this June $187/sf- down 22% from 07.

On the other hand, June sales and prices were up solidly from May and, except for slightly higher average/median prices in February, were better than any other month this year. Later on I’ll put those numbers together and post them.

For now, that’s the way it is with single family home sales in the Tucson Foothills

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to search for Tucson Foothills Homes

over easy or straight-up

My friend Christopher Fountain is again taking flack for telling it like it is at his Greenwich, Ct real estate blog For What It’s Worth

His latest villainy has to do with some straight-up info and commentary he provided for a slide show in The New York Times that documents the real estate bust across the U.S. Apparently the entrenched citizenry of Greenwich find his disclosures terribly unseemly.

It’s juicy stuff, Shhh! Don’t say a word.

And the slide show, Ruins of the Second Gilded Age

Enjoy, and Happy 4th!