The Catalina Foothills

got cash

If so, you’ve got an edge. When a seller sees a cash buyer they see a deal coming together without the worry of wondering if it will fall through, because the financing fell through. And that gives cash buyers an edge. But today it’s less of an edge than it was some months ago, when financing was really tough or impossible to get. These days, if you’re a qualified buyer, financing is widely available. So you can finance and usually close your deal in about 30-35 days.

But let’s say you’re making an offer on a house that’s vacant, and there are plenty of those in the foothills. If you’re a cash buyer you can really turbo-charge your offer by writing it to close the deal in as little as two weeks. Some close even sooner. When the seller sees that, a lot of other stuff they were hanging onto for dear life- like that price they wouldn’t budge on - goes out the window.

Suddenly it’s, hey Alice, two weeks and it’ll be over and they’re dancing around the kitchen table. The can see the end and smell the money. And it’s very hard to resist.

Cash deal – fast close, it’s your edge, use it or lose it.

it happens all the time in the foothills

5415 N Soledad Segunda –sold $420, 18 days contract to COE

6611 N Los Leones Dr- sold $400, 4 days contract to COE

6430 N Placita Quicoma- sold $415, 19 days contract to COE

5561 E Miles Cir- sold $421,500, 16 days contract to COE

5733 N Placita Bacanora- sold $425, 23 days contract to COE

5120 N Louis River Way- sold $425, 15 days contract to COE

1201 E River Rd- sold $440, 16 days contract to COE

3840 N River Oak Pl- sold $450, 18 days contract to COE

5424 E Heatherwood Way- sold $480, 19 days contract to COE

3005 E Cerrada Los Palitos- sold $525, 23 days contract to COE

4838 N Bonita Ridge Ave- sold $542, 18 days contract to COE

7089 E Foothills View Ct- sold $560, 19 days contract to COE

5721 E Pinchot Rd- sold $580, 16 days contract to COE

6171 N Via Del Pichon- sold $605, 13 days contract to COE

4951 N Avenida De Castilla- sold $615, 21 days contract to COE

4520 E Swans Nest Rd- sold $770, 23 days contract to COE

6058 E Roadrunner Haven Pl- sold $800, 23 days contract to COE

3260 E Sun Cloud Pl- sold $800, 20 days contract to COE

7481 N Moon Spirit Ln- sold $825, 3 days contract to COE

5977 N Sabino Shadow Ln- sold $835, 21 days contract to COE

5128 N Calle Ladero- sold $920, 21 days contract to COE

4361 E La Paloma Dr- sold $1.4mil, 11 days contract to COE

3333 E Cobblestone Pl- sold $1.710mil, 19 days contract to COE

1783 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl- sold $2.1mil, 20 days contract to COE

that’s just a sample from the last 4 or 5 months. Many buyers, in almost all price ranges, are using quick cash closings to get the best deal they can

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7980 N Christie Dr

A special home in a unique foothills community of 3.3 acre and larger lots, in virgin desert terrain, with extreme privacy and drop dead views

 

Range priced $2,899,000 - $3,200,000/2006 built/8129 sf/
7 Bdrms/7 Bths + 2 half bths/including separate guest house/
3.6 acres/in Cobo Catalina Hills

see it here> 7980 N Christie Dr

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is this the new wave, flipping foreclosures

6330 E Valle Di Cadore was a new spec home completed in 2005 and listed with great expectations for $950,000.

Then it was $899,000, then $935,000, then $899,000 again. 
But why give it away, so they raised the price to $1,200,000, then $1,365,000, then $1,319,300, then $1,250,000, then $1,190,000 and so on. I’m not sure they had one, but you get the idea.

So of course it was foreclosed and finally sold in August 08 for a measly $570,000.

And today the cycle starts again, because it’s back for $865,000.

Priced to sell!!!!!! Million dollar views!!!!! Not a short sale or bank owned. Hassle free close. Million dollar home without the price tag! Travertine flooring, granite counters and spacious bedrooms. Endless views from every window. Owner is willing to carry mortgage!

See it here> 6330 E Valle Di Cadore

 

random numbers on the million+ market

Along with the rest of the market there are signs that the million+ market in the foothills is also improving.

Five or six months ago there were about 150 homes for sale at $1.0+.

Today there are 103, so a 30% drop in inventory.
Some of them sold at $1.0+, some sold for under $1.0 and some dropped off the market. And are sure to return.

Over the past 30 days 8 homes sold at a million+.
Same period last year- 7 sold.
Same period in 07- 5 sold.
So WOW! recent sales look good.

But looking at YTD sales at $1.0+, we’ve got some catching up to do; -so far this year 32 homes sold at $1.0+
-same period last year- 46 sold
-same period in 07- 70 sold
-and just to stretch a point, same period in 06- 94 sold.
So for now, hold off on the hats n’ horns.

What about sold prices for $million + homes
For 1/1 – 8/30, average/median & $$/sf prices

-this year- $1,406,594/$1,216,000 & $291/sf
-last year- $1,524,179/$1,375,000 & $329/sf
- in 07    - $1,470,938/$1,321,500 & $328/sf
- in 06    - $1,474,553/$1,250,000 & $327/sf
I had to go back to 2003 to find sold prices similar to this years.
-  2003   - $1,409,500/$1,145,000 & $294/sf

And like this time in 03, when the country was recovering from the fear and panic of 9/11 and the stock market crash, we now seem to be on a similar path. 

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suddenly, everybody up there likes us

Read all about it

First it was - Tucson among hottest home buyers markets 

And now USATODAY chimes in -
Second homes: Tucson is the right size at the right price

And just in time to give a nice little boost to our improving home market

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another half-baked special

and another spec home that didn’t sell, huh, I wonder why.
6825 N Calle Mechero had it’s debut in March 2008 as new construction listed at $2,350,000. 

And it’s back on the market today at $995,000 as a foreclosure.
Wow, what a deal. Let’s see. The listing says;
Spanish Style Custom Home is about 95% complete & Sold As-Is, built in exclusive Foothills neighborhood 

That exclusive foothills neighborhood is Vista de las Candelas.
And Vista de las Candelas is a dandy place, as long as you’re not trying to sell a $2,350,000 home. Some would call that the height of wishful thinking, to put it kindly. Others might be more blunt. 

Since 2000, the highest sale ever in VDLC was for $875,000 in 05. And if those buyers aren’t having a few sleepless nights, I’d be very surprised. Because other than one other sale in the low $8’s, the 50 other homes sold in VDLC, sold in the low $6’s, with the vast majority in the $5’s, $4’s, $3’s and $2’s. Yeah.

I haven’t a clue, where do you think this one will end up.

See it here> 6825 N Calle Mechero

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the gap has narrowed

That’s the gap between list prices and sold prices.

Earlier this year I reported;

The gap between the median list price -$639,000 - and the median sold price -$400,000 – is a whopping 37%.

And The gap between the average list price -$919,942 - and the average sold price - $473,097 – is 48%.

On this hot day in August that gap has narrowed a bit.
The median list price is down to $587,000 - the median sold is up to $451,000 - for a slimmed down 23% gap.

And the average list is down to $895,891 –the average sold is up to $590,415 – for 34% gap.

So buyers and sellers are getting a little closer together and that’s a good thing.

my, how quickly things change

Read all about it, before it changes again

Long Term Outlook: Tucson among hottest home buyers markets

Or sit back and watch,

another failed short sale and what do you get

Presto! another foreclosure
This one at 4911 N Avenida De Castilla in Hacienda del Sol Estates.  
Built in 2004, and trying to get a jump on things, was listed in
02 & 03 for $795,000 – but never sold.

Back on the market in March 07, for $1,149,000 – left the market last month as a short sale – and now it’s back for $839,900 as a foreclosure.

So $839,900, just a smidge over it’s 02 – 03 asking price. 
Or $182/sf for a 5 year old home in gated HDS, with bells and whistles and mountain views. Sounds pretty good.

But no home is perfect and this one’s no exception. It sits next to Hacienda del Sol Rd – at the X. And as we’ve seen so many times in the past with spec homes, for some reason, homes by the side of the road have not proven to be terribly popular with buyers. And I’ve yet to see any signs of that changing anytime soon.

Oh eventually, once the price is irresistible, someone comes along.
Is $839,900 irresistible.

See it here> 4911 N Avenida De Castilla
**link to expire on 9/24/09**

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in lock-step with the market

In 2006 the house at 2929 E Plaza Encantada sold for $1,125,000.
It sold again today, this time for $865,000- that’s 23% less than 06.

And however unlikely it may be, average sale prices in the foothills from the same period in 06 vs now, are also down 23%.

So even though the sellers are out a bundle, maybe they’ll take some comfort in knowing that it sold for exactly what the market says it should have. Yeah sure.

Oh, and there’s one thing about this house that’s not so in-sync. The listing indicates the square footage as 3406, and the owner (now the former owner) as the source of that info. But the Pima County Assessor shows the square footage as 2916. So which is it I wonder.

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sale ties record in Bellas Catalinas

3722 E Camino De Jaime sold today for $1,250,000 tying the record for the highest priced sale in there, ever. And at $312/sf, it set a record high for $/sf prices in BC. The last, and only other, sale at $1.250 was in 04 for a house on Placita Susana that went for $262/sf.

This one’s a very nice contemporary by Giachetti.

See it here> Cmo De Jaime
**link will expire on 9/24/09**

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and 2 more go to contract

5805 N Campbell Ave, listed at $950,000, went to contract yesterday. Well sort of, you see it’s short sale, so who knows. Hopefully, they are very patient buyers.

This house has been on the market for 146 days, so not so long as things go. But it was also on the market in 07, and never sold, first for $1,989,000, then $1,890,000 and on and on until it got way down to the bargain basement price of $1,600,000.
At that point the listing included this helpful warning:

THIS IS IT: LAST PRICE REDUCTION before coming off market 9/16. We have reduced this home $389,000 since listing it and it was the the BEST DEAL then. ONLY FULL or near FULL OFFERS CAN BE CONSIDERED.
Word for word, I swear.

And 6942 N Longfellow Ln, a gorgeous top to bottom renovation – done with style and care - went to contract listed at $998,000.
And sitting at the very top of Longfellow, it’s very private and with wonderful mountain views too. A deal for the buyers, I think.

See them here> 5805 N Campbell (no pictures) & 6942 Longfellow (lots of good pictures)

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that’s so six months ago

are you still so hung up on making a killing that you don’t recognize a good deal when you see it

Take 6490 N Finisterra Dr

Listed for $749 in 07 - failed to sell
Listed for $650 in 08 - failed to sell
Listed for $549 in 09 - went to contract in 3 days

if you don’t, someone else will

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it’s nice to be right once in a while

I showed this house on Placita Taza, in Cat 10, 3 or 4 times in the last six months to different buyers. But the last time I showed it, a little over a week ago, it looked better than ever – really neatened up, clean, tidy, almost sparkling - and the price had just been reduced to $799,000 from a recent $899,000 and $849,000.

It didn’t work for the people I showed it to, but I mentioned to them, at the risk of sounding like Realtor bs, that I thought it would be gone in a week. Ah-ha. And when the listing agent called me for feedback, I told him the same thing- Peter, not to worry, it’ll be gone in a week.

And now it is. But it took some doing. 
They bought it in 06 for $890,000, and then added a pool & spa - cha-ching cha-ching. And after 15 months on the market, starting at $995k, today it found a buyer at $799,000 or $275/sf. I guess the sellers are about as happy as you can be when you’re out around 200 thou or so.

And hey, it’s another sale for Cat 10, which has been in the serious doldrums lately.

see it here> Placita Taza
**link will expire on 9/21/09**

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oodles of elegance on Javelina Dr

6959 N Javelina Dr in Skyline CC is now listed for close to what it sold for in 2001. And according to the listing, it’s been completely renovated since then. And while it’s not my cup of tea - too old world elegant for me - it’s looking like it could be right for someone.

It sold for $2,800,000 in 01 and is now down to $2,995,000 (*range priced $2,995,000 to $3,295,000) That’s $268/sf/built 1986/11,181 sf/ masonry construction/6 Beds/8.5 Bths/& swedish sauna, no less/1.92 acres, way up in Skyline/pool/spa, etc, etc.

It’s been for sale for eons and spent about 5 years listed between $3.95 and $4.9, and in just the last 3 months has had a $$million lopped off it’s price tag. So it looks like it’s getting serious time.

See it here, with really good pictures too> Javelina Dr

PS
*range pricing; it’s supposed to prevent low-ball offers by clearly stating the bottom price that a seller is willing to take. That’s what it’s really all about, I think. But I’ve found, when push comes to shove, many range priced homes sell for below the bottom of the range, some well below. And who in their right mind is going to come along and offer $3,100,000 for Javelina Dr, when it’s listed for $2,995,000 to $3,295,000. Would you. 

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slim pickins in foreclosures

In a conversation about the foothills market the other day, a guy asked me how many foreclosures are there in the foothills.
I guessed, oh, maybe 20 or so.

That surprised him, what with all the attention foreclosures get, he assumed there were a lot more. Who wouldn’t.

But my guess was off too, checking, I see there are just 12 homes listed as foreclosures in the foothills - priced from $302,900 to $648,900.That’s it.

21 sold in the last 6 months, from - $210,000 to $920,000 and there are 12 under contract, from - $295,000 to $1,040,000. 

Short sales are another matter, I find 28 listed. And eventually, because the short sale process is so mired in endless delay and uncertainty, many of those will enter the foreclosure pipeline. I find just 5 short sales that somehow managed to get thru all the hurdles and sell in the last 6 months.

And the latest trend is well-priced foreclosures getting snapped up, and often, with multiple offers for over list. I’ve been beat out on three of them lately.

**This for single family homes, no condos, no townhomes**

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sales & prices, month by month

since August 08

 

With higher sales, lower inventory - 483 for sale today vs about 593
earlier this year - and prices holding their own, the foothills market continues to get stronger, not weaker.

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a look at the seamier side of real estate

Josh Brodesky covers it in two articles in The Arizona Daily Star

Taking a beating in real estate

&

Josh Brodesky: Long broker, client handcuffed in mix-up with sheriff deputies

you won’t see yourself coming and going in this one

6620 N Eagle Ridge Dr, in Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates, was listed for sale two weeks ago at $8,250,000 – (the 2nd highest price listing in the foothills). And in the, if you have to ask department, that works out to $1,273.15/sf, which makes Eagle Ridge the highest $$$/sf asking price in the foothills.

Blessedly, it’s a contemporary, a real minimalist contemporary, and, thankfully, not another SWestern contemporary or mock Tuscan or mock anything.

Built in 2007/of concrete, steel and glass/6480 sf/5 Beds/6Bths/2 story/pool/3 car garage + 2 car carport/on 3.5 acres way up in the  Mountain Estates.

Eagle Ridge is a big high ledge that looks out over the entire Tucson Valley. And the house sits on the southern rim of that ledge, affording endless, unobstructed views.

As unique and gorgeous as it appears to be, and located in one of the most dramatic settings in the Foothills, at $8,250,000, should it sell,
it would break all sales records (as recorded in the MLS anyway) by about 4 million $$$.

I don’t want to say there’s no market for home like this but, if there is, thus far it’s a very thin one. Going all the way back to 1990 the highest MLS recorded sale in the foothills is for $3.8mil, and that was in 07. And while there are three other homes listed between $5.0 and $6.0mil, and one at $13,500,000, none have sold. 

On the other hand, as time marches on and the foothills gains in popularity, more expensive homes are being built and, I think, will eventually sell. So maybe.

THIS JUST IN: A reader reminded me that a very expensive home sold a couple of years ago in the Mountain Estates, but not thru the MLS. I vaguely remembered that sale, and found it on the Pima County Assessors site. The house is on Rock Ledge Pl, and sold on Halloween 2007, for $7,000,000, cash.

And poking around the assessors site, I also discovered an interesting discrepancy in square footage for our Eagle Ridge contemporary. The listing indicates the house is 6480 sf and the source of that sf figure is listed as OTHER. Not HOME OWNER or FLOOR PLAN or APPRAISER or ASSESSOR. But the Pima County Assessor shows the house as 4898 sf. And unless one of those is a typo, somebody's got some splainin’ to do.

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the ice breaker

6424 N Placita Del Zopilote in Alta Vista sold for $1,045,000 in June 06 and went back on the market in January of this year for (what I thought was) the head-in-the-clouds price of $1,300,000.

It’s a really nice house, but come on, a 24% price increase while the world economy is collapsing and prices in the little ole foothills are down about 24%.

Over time they did reduce it to $1,175,000, but so what.

Well, so what, or not, it sold today for $1,075,000.
Or $30,000 more than they paid in 06, at the very tippy-top of the market.

This may be a first. Or it may be a fluke. We’ll see.

But one thing’s for certain, the market in the foothills is getting stronger, not weaker.

it can be done

On Monday afternoon I submitted an offer for some clients I’m representing for a home in foreclosure. It was a Bank of America deal, and after submitting the offer we settled in for the long wait - weeks, if not longer- to get a response. 

But the next morning, Tuesday, I was notified that they had reviewed our offer, along with 5 other offers they'd received, and we were asked to submit our highest and best offer by Wednesday at 5PM. Amazing, this must be a fluke.

So on Wednesday we submitted a higher offer and once again figured we’d be in for a good long wait. But on Thursday afternoon we were notified the bank was accepting another offer that was higher than ours. And that was that, 4 days from submitting the offer to final decision - by a big bank. Incredible and unheard of, but it happened. 

We didn’t get it and that’s too bad, but we didn’t, and none of the other bidders did either, have to wait around for weeks to find out.

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if you missed it the 1st time, or even the 2nd time, don’t despair, it’s back again

On February 18th 3260 E Sun Cloud Pl in Cobblestone sold for $1,000,000. Three months later it was back on the market for $1,100,000 and sold for $800,000 on August 17th, 4 days ago.

And today it’s back on the market for the 3rd time, for $1,100,000.

everybody gets a turn with this one> Sun Cloud PL

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great expectations

Even though they’d yet to even break ground, and it wasn’t completed until 2002, this house at 6464 N Ventana Canyon Dr was listed for sale in 1999 for $2.4mil.

And through 99, 00, 01, 02, 03 and into 04, it continued to be for sale with the price bopping around between $2.5 and $1.750. 
But it never sold. And in 04 it went to auction & did sell, but the sale was rescinded and the house went back to the owner. And that was that.

And it was off the market from then until it was re-listed this June, and today it went to contract listed at $1,040,000, as a lender owned. A REO.

In Ventana CC/2002 built/5768 sf/3 Beds/4 Bths/masonry construction/2 story/1 acre/$1,040,000/$180/sf, looking something like this,

 

Isn't it odd that they tried for so long to sell it during the
(pre-boom) years, then took it off the market during the height of the frenzy 05 – 06, only to let it slip through their fingers into foreclosure.

he who hesitates ...

that half built home in Pima Canyon that I wrote about yesterday- 7236 N Calle Sin Envidia, it’s already gone. the last gasp- half built homes

Yeah, one day on the market at a very attractive price and BAM.

And if you had your eye on it, I don’t know for sure but, as I mentioned yesterday, I expect the house next door, also a half baked & another Tara Sun home, will also soon come to market as a foreclosure.

see it here> 7236 N Calle Sin Envidia – on the street without envy

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what goes up must come down

6950 E Wild Canyon Pl

sold March 04, $699,000

sold February 05, $870,000

sold November 06, $995,000

sold today, August 09, $667,900

as a foreclosure.

After the 06 sale for $995, it went back on the market in January 08 for $1,195,000 -too too high & way too late.

The house is 2003 built/3746 sf/4 Beds/3 Baths/3 car garage/Pool/spa/Canyon Ridge gated community/listed & sold for $667,900/$178/sf, a very nice deal for today’s buyer.

see it here> 6950 E Wild Canyon Pl
**link will expire 9/17/09**

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contracts & sales

on this hot, lazy and slow day in August.

And though that may be, activity in the foothills home market seems to be holding up pretty well, for August.

so far, for the month we’ve had;

31 homes go to contract –
priced $269,000 to $1,900,000
average/median list - $545,000/$419,000
average $$/sf - $181

10 homes passed from contract to Pending -
priced $180,000 to $1,175,000
average/median list - $423,132/$326,400
average $$/sf - $199

20 homes sold -
priced $240,000 to $2,100,000
average/median sold - $680,350/$455,500
average $$/sf - $198
*5 sold at a million & up

It looks as though we’ll see fewer sales in August than we did in July, but not to worry. I think August runs neck-n-neck with December for slowest month of the year.

And though the month’s not done yet, $680,350 is by far the highest average sold price for any month this year. Next highest was July -$587,791, then Feb-$539,172 and so on down from there.
And last August, 37 homes sold, and I think we’ll beat that, for an average of $620,173. 

we’ll see,

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the last gasp- half built homes

7236 N Calle Sin Envidia, in Pima Canyon, was first offered for sale at $2,100,000 in August 2008 and described in the listing as follows;

Impressive & graceful in its design with old world architectural detail & state-of-the-art features. This 2008 all masonry blt hm by Tara-Sun Dev. is exquisitely adorned & highlights mocha trav flrs, all alder doors/cabs, Anderson high eff windows, gournet kit w/ss Dacor & Viking appl. LR opens to enormous wrap around covered balcony overlooking pool/spa w/spectacular views of city. Enjoy entertaining friends from spacious observation deck.

And after a few price cuts and a change in status to a short sale, it was available for $1,498,000, stipulating in the listing info -
Buyer must complete home

That listing expired yesterday and today – ta-da, it’s back as a lender owned home for $697,350, described as follows;

Contractor special! Building is 75-80% complete, lots of finishing touches on site. Incredible views, incomplete negative edge pool, kitchen cabinetry is all in, granite counter tops, some flooring needed. You must see to appreciate what a spectacular bargain this is.

---

OK, this is a new, partially built, maybe 75-80% complete, maybe not, buyer beware, but at $697,350/$153/sf/masonry construction/4569 sf/5 bedrooms/3.5 baths/pool/spa in Pima Canyon, though at the ass-end of it, it now sounds like a deal to me. At least one worth looking into. And PS, it appears they paid $460,000 for the lot, in 06.

See it here> 7236 N Calle Sin Envidia

And by the way, a few other half-builts have popped up recently, and I expect the one next door to this one, also a Tara-Sun not-quite-completed spec, to make an appearance soon.  So I’m wondering if this isn’t the last gasp of the Foothills spec home boom-bust cycle, with those stragglers who were way too late to the party, now fizzling out in mid stream.

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location, location

built 2008/5577 sf/masonry construction/pool/spa/5 car garage/hand plastered interior walls, hand carved 8' alder doors, corbels & brick floors add to the Spanish colonial charm.

And, not stinting on the old family recipe, with the highest quality materials and workmanship, inside and out. That’s 5136 N Calle Ladero, a La Quinta, which sold yesterday for $1,232,000. 

Dirt cheap for a wonderful new La Quinta – and though all La Quinta’s are wonderful and scarce, this one was built right next to Campbell Ave- with traffic whizzing by day and night.  

A shining example of the lack of good buildable land in the foothills and a sad commentary on the lapse in judgment - even by the guys at La Quinta, who’ve been doing this for decades - that took hold during the boom years.

I wrote about these two La Quinta’s earlier this year, if you’re interested> would you put up with some traffic noise to save $900,000 & a big day for La Quinta

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something old something new, what’s your choice

Two weeks ago in the post - Pima Canyon is more than pulling it’s weight, I mentioned that there were 12 sales of high-end homes in the last three months in the Foothills. And that 6 of them were in Pima Canyon.

And a reader asked why, why so many sales in Pima Canyon- relative to the rest of the Foothills. 

I don’t know for sure, but here’s what I think; there were, and still are, a lot of homes for sale in Pima Canyon, so there’s a lot to choose from.

And along with that, all the homes in Pima Canyon are new or newer, most of them built in the last 5 years and many in the last year or two. And in my experience, more people prefer new to old. And if you’re willing to pay for it, and you’re spending upwards of one or two million, you get to pick and choose.

The are a lot of homes for sale in Catalina Foothills Estates 10, some in Ventana CC, La Paloma and Skyline too. But not nearly as many as in PC, and many of them are older, built in the 80’s and early 90’s and in Skyline there are homes from the 60’s and 70’s. 
And it might be a different story if the older one’s were really nicely updated, but many are not. And most buyers don’t want to buy a house and then have to tackle a big renovation project, they just don’t.

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a costly change of plans

Up in Cobblestone, 3260 E Sun Cloud Pl sold for $1,000,000 on 2/18/09. Then, for some reason, the new owners put it back on the market on 5/11/09 for $1.1, and it sold today for $800,000. OUCH!

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they’re still holding out at the high-end

and with the recent spike in high-end sales, they may be holding out with a bit more resolve than before.

In the past two weeks there’ve been 54 price reductions on Foothills homes. With twice as many –36 - on homes $599k or less, than on homes over $599 -18. ($599 is the median list price)

And $599 and under, has been and is, selling very nicely. And despite the recent spike - and it was a spike and not a gusher - the high-end still has a long long way to go.

Yet, they’re still holding out. Why. Because they can afford to.
And summer’s almost over. And I think that they think, that things will get better, not worse. And it will be worth the wait. And I’m beginning to believe that for some of them, it will. The question is, for how many.

psst, looking for a deal on a spec home

If you’re looking for a nice deal on new spec home and can’t find what you want in the foothills - because many of the specs have sold – check out Canyon Pass at Dove Mountain.

It’s a real schlep to get out there, about 20 miles from the Foothills, but once you do it’s incredibly gorgeous. Like nothing else in the Tucson area. It’s this giant and very dramatic bowl formed by the Tortolita mountains with homes built along the slopes and ridges.

And the selection of spec homes is almost obscene. 17 homes for sale at Canyon Pass and 14 of them appear to be new specs. And the 3 that are owner-occupied may be specs that the owners are living in while trying to sell.

And with just 4 sold in the last year, the mood out there must be grim and getting grimmer by the day.

30%, 40%, 50% off and more, here are the 4 that sold;

-14016 N Dove Canyon Pass, first listed $1,440,000 10/08– sold for $700,000 6/09

- 13905 N Horizon View Ln, listed at $2,590,000 2/07- sold for
$1,200,000 on 3/09

- 13920 N Copper Sunset Dr, first listed $2,900,000 2/08- sold for
$2,210,000 on 9/08 (closing 7 days after it all came tumbling down)

- 4502 W Hanging Rock Ct, first listed $3,350,000 1/09- sold for $2,600,000 on 6/09

And here’s a sample of those for sale with the biggest drops in original vs current asking price;

-14945 N Cush Canyon Pl was $2,250,000, is $950,000

-13964 N Copper Sunset Dr was $2,300,000, is $950,000

-15040 N Cush Cayton Pl was $2,395,000, is $999,000

-15185 N Gallery Overlook Pl, was $2,195,000, is $1,450,000

- 4138 W Cayton Mountain Dr, was $2,495,000, is $1,600,000

- and 4863 W Dove Nest Pl, on the market for 735 days gets the stickin’ to your guns award for not budging from it’s original $1,940,000 asking price.

- 4841 W Lone Dove Dr, was $2,750,000, is $1,980,000

- 14091 N Horizon View Ln, was $3,495,000, is $2,295,000

Three years ago when everything started to cave in I advised buyers, and it was obvious, that places like this, with lots of new construction and spec homes, would be the hardest hit. But I never thought it would get hit this hard, and apparently a lot others didn’t either.

See them all here> Canyon Pass at Dove Mountain
**link will expire on 9/14/09**

And not-a-one under contract at Canyon Pass.

Long Realty Market Report

The Summer ’09 Market Report Video features a recent TV interview with Rosey Koberlein talking about the state of the Tucson and Southern Arizona housing market. The video highlights recent increases in buyer activity and the balancing of market supply and demand.

Watch it here>

Or, if that video is on the fritz, here’s a link> http://www.longrealtyonline.com/videos/summer2009/

6840 N Vista Del Pueblo, aka the racquet ball house

- in Finisterra- listed at $999,500 - with an indoor racquet ball court- on the market since 2005- has gone thru 5 agents - $2,000,000 in price cuts - found a buyer today.

There really is a butt for every seat.

Vista Del Pueblo
-link will expire on 9/13/09**

Zillow’s Zestimates

Last week I did a fun little piece comparing Zillow’s Zestimates to the actual sold price of 16 homes in the Foothills. And, needless to say, there was usually a large gap between the two.
see> feelin’ lucky

And, maybe coincidentally maybe not, today I received the following email from Zillow, with charts and graphs and even a video, to help me understand their Zestimates. And I thought, this is so helpful, why not share it. So here goes,

How to respond when clients say, "But Zillow says..."

Are you trying to work with clients, but they keep countering with, "But Zillow says...!"

We are here to help.

Understanding the Zestimate
To help you talk to your clients about the Zestimate® home valuation and its accuracy, we invite you to watch a video on the Zestimate:

Gee, that was helpful and fun too. Thank you Zillow. 

So remember boys and girls, just like Sara says, the Zestimate is fun to kinda get an idea. And, as long as you think of it that way, you’ll avoid getting yourself in deep doo-doo.

But hey, wouldn’t it be even more fun if they’d let everyone in on it, and splash it across the top of their web site.  
Zestimates, a Fun way to kinda get an idea …

That’s so much more fun than,
Zillow.com Your Edge in Real Estate

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sold now, paid then

here’s a list of homes that were bought since 2001, and sold again in the last 6 weeks- and what they sold for now vs what they paid then.

A kind of wide-angle view of how sellers, who bought in the last 8 years, are faring in the current market. And there’s no accounting here for all the variables of whether a home was updated, trashed or foreclosed - just the bottom line. 

4838 N Bonita Ridge Ave- $542,000, paid $446,000 in 03

6102 E Owls Nest Pl- $542,500, paid $625,00 in 08

5691 N Placita Deleite-$557,750, paid $515,000 in 04

7089 E Foothills View Ct- $560,000, paid $550,000 in 04

5721 E Pinchot Rd- $580,000, paid $613,000 in 05

4951 N Avenida De Castilla- $615,000, paid $800,000 in 06

6595 E Placita Alhaja- $640,000, paid $785,000 in 08

7501 N Christie Dr- $665,900, paid $509,250 in 01

6491 N Placita De Tia Ro- $735,000, paid $819,000 in 05

4520 E Swans Nest Rd- $770,000, paid $854,500 in 05

5771 N Campbell Ave- $860,000, paid $2,200,000 in 07

4839 E Placita Provida- $900,000, paid $1,152,599 in 07

6190 N Cadena De Montanas- $940,000, paid $985,00 in 05

1548 E Desert Garden Dr-$1,375,000, paid $970,000 in 02

2591 E Calle Sin Ruido- $1,400,000, paid $1,500,000 in 02

3295 E Camino Juan Paisano- $1,400,000, paid $1,400,00 in 01

2067 E Desert Garden Dr- $1,500,000, paid $1,813,000 in 06

So, if misery loves company and you’re in this predicament, you’re not alone.

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foreclosures, just for the record

Josh Brodsky of the Arizona Daily Star had an article the other day on foreclosures and how they’re effecting the values and appraisals of surrounding homes. > Josh Brodesky: Foreclosures factored into appraisals hit sellers hard <

The foreclosure figures in the article are for the entire Tucson market and, lest anyone assume they also apply to the Foothills, I thought I’d publish corresponding foreclosure figures for just the Foothills.

In the article;
For those keeping score, there is a huge difference in price — nearly $60,000 — between a foreclosure and a traditional resale.

The median price of a traditional re-sale in June was $178,000, according to real estate analyst John L. Strobeck.

The median price for a foreclosure? $120,000.
_______________________________________________________

In the Foothills;
The median price for a traditional re-sale in June was $465,000
and for a foreclosure it was $389,500 - a difference of $75,500 or about -16%.

(while in the Tucson market, the difference between $178,000 & $120,000 is -32.5%)
_______________________________________________________

In the article;

If you are trying to sell your home in this market, your biggest challenge probably isn't finding a willing buyer, but the foreclosure down the street.

Not only do you have to compete in price with it, but that foreclosure is going to factor into your appraisal as a comp, possibly scuttling a deal.

It makes a lot of sense to separate foreclosures out from the appraisal process, but here is the kicker: They make up roughly 30 percent of the sales in the Tucson market, so can you really ignore them?
________________________________________________________

In the Foothills, in June anyway,
foreclosures made up 8.3% of sales. 48 total sales, 4 were foreclosures.
________________________________________________________

And of the 493 homes currently for sale in the Foothills, just 10 are listed as foreclosures – 2%. But curiously, while they make up just 2% of listed homes, they made up 8.3% of sales in June.

In any case, so far, in the foreclosure department we’re doing much better than the overall Tucson market. Ho-Ho Ha-Ha!

**my figures are based on data I extracted from the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.

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3rd one’s the charm

After a brief respite, and with the 3rd listing agent now calling the shots, 4150 E La Paloma Dr returned to the market today.

On and off since 2005 and listed as high a $2,550,000, it can now be had for $1,500,000. On La Paloma Dr, the street of marvelous views.

A guy I’ve been working with recently, told me that he’d made a $1.8 cash offer on this house a couple of years ago when it was listed at around $2.0. But the sellers wouldn’t budge and neither would he. So he moved on, but they're still in the same old place. 
> 4150 E La Paloma Dr @ $1.5

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a long and winding road

6655 N Los Leones Dr in Skyline Country Club was listed as a foreclosure on July 15th. Prior to that it was a short sale for $795,000. And prior to that it was just your average grossly overpriced listing, first at $1,395,000 which left the market at $1,195,000. 
And it’s a wonderful house in Skyline and has been on the market for almost 2 years, and it’s still for sale.

It’s a classic Tucson burnt adobe territorial that’s been nicely updated with new travertine floors, a top to bottom new high-end kitchen, new baths and more. And it sits on a very private lot with gorgeous mountain views in Skyline. I’d rank it an 8.5 out of 10 in this category.

Listing it for $1,395,000, or there abouts, was suicidal, a no-way 
no-go. So it became a short sale.
And when it was a short sale listed at $795,000, every time I had someone who was interested and I called the listing agent, I was told there was an offer in hand that was about to be final approved by the lender at any moment. And that went on for months, but it never closed. Short sale-itis maybe. Instead it became a foreclosure, listed on July 15th for $579,900. A screamin’ deal in my opinion.

So now it was finally cleared for takeoff and we could do something.
So on July 19th, for buyers I was representing, I submitted a
full-price cash offer to close within 14 days of acceptance.
What could be better than that.

Well apparently something was, because last week our offer was rejected. A full price cash offer, rejected. I was told the lender was only considering offers over $650,000 and that they had a few.

But there’s a fly in the ointment with this house. One that could easily scuttle a deal that’s being financed, which I took care to explain to the listing agent.

There’s a 687 sf discrepancy between the square footage as listed – 3466 sf – and the square footage as shown by the assessor – 2779sf. And it looks as if a space off the garage was converted, without benefit of permits, from storage space or a workshop or something, to what is now a heated/cooled living space that’s used as a rec room. And is being counted as part of the total living space, but legitimately, is not. My buyers knew this, I told them, and they were OK with it.

And while it may be OK with other buyers too, it’s very likely that, at the very least, the lender financing this deal will require that it appraise based on the 2799 square footage shown by the assessor. And not 3466. So unless they’ve got another cash offer, I wouldn’t be surprised if this deal falls through too.

And it’s now 8/11, closing in on 4 weeks, and a decision has yet to be announced. 

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failed to sell at $240,000, what say we give $259,900 a try

It doesn’t take much. A little good news here, a pop in sales there and before you know it, prices are going up. Like these have,

4060 N Camino Del Celador, mentioned above, went from $240,000 to $259,900. Camino Del Celador has been on the market for 178 days.

4031 E Bujia Primera had no takers at $325,000 so they’re now trying their luck at $350,000. That’s after 333 days.

6159 N Via De La Tortola, 126 days on the market, raised it’s price from $495,900 to $509,900.

And with the recent spurt in sales in Pima Canyon, is it really any surprise that sellers would see this as an opportunity to get back some of what they’ve given up. Of course not. 2123 E Sentry Ridge Ct raised it’s price from $2,295,000 to $2,450,000 and then, right away, to $2,495,000, for a nice even $200,000 increase. Makes sense, it’s only been on the market for 636 days.

OOPS! there’s more, later in the day and here’s another -
those in charge of 4680 E Avenida Shelly saw fit, despite having been on the market for 325 days, to raise its price from $850,000 to $899,000. Way to go.

Stay tuned.

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and another cha-ching

After less than 2 months on the market, 1631 E Calle El Cid sold the other day for $1,050,000, from a $1,149,000 list price.
By any measure, a very successful sale. But one that I had bet would never happen, not in this market, and not with financing as squeaky tight and closely scrutinized as it is. 

I saw this house when it came on the market in March and it looked like a very nice house and a lot of house for the money – built 2007/5407 sf/5 BDR/3.5 Bth/& just $194/sf@sale. But it also stuck out like a sore thumb.

Looking at the other homes in Santa Catalina Estates, where El Cid is located, the highest sale in the last 5 years was $671,500. With just a few other sales in the $6’s and $5’s, and most of them in the $4’s $3’s & $2’s. And everything for sale and under contract is also in the $4’s, $3’s & $2’s.

A few months ago, buyers I was working with asked me about El Cid, and after giving them the sales/price history for Santa Catalina, along with my opinion of it, they passed on it. As I thought they should. And though I still feel that was the right decision – the basic no-no of buying the biggest house on the block - now that it’s sold, and sold well and quickly, I can’t help wondering.

And why now. And how did they manage to get financing. There just aren’t any comps for this kind of sale in Santa Catalina Estates. And coincidentally, just last week a home in Shadow Hills – which borders the south side of Santa Catalina - sold for $1,120,000, breaking the all-time record in there. (see Cha-ching)

A few years ago, sales like this would not have gotten a mention, but it’s difficult to neatly fit them into the scheme of the market we’ve been in lately.

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buyer snags the WOW! house

That’s what I call it.
3700 E Rose Peak Pl went to contract today listed as a short sale at $1,900,000. That’s after 2 years and more than 3 million in price cuts.

Say what you will, but there’s nothing else like it, not even close, 
in Tucson. It’s out there.
See it here, great pictures> 3700 E Rose Peak Pl

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feelin’ lucky

then go ahead, make your next purchase or sale based on Zillow’s Zestimates.
They’re hit or miss, and more miss than hit, in the foothills.

These are homes that have sold in the last 30 days,

Property	Zillow’s Zestimate	Actual Sold
6921 N Chaparral	$858,500	$700,000
7181 N Pla Sin Codicia	$908,000	$685,000
6491 N Placita Tia Ro	$737,000	$735,000
1548 E Desert Garden Dr	$1,380,000	$1,375,000
6590 N Regal Manor	$1,038,000	$739,625
5771 N Campbell Ave	$1,259,500	$860,000
6871 E Desert Wind	$849,000	$950,000
6160 N Calle Culebra	$991,500	$1,120,000
2591 E Calle Sin Ruido	$1,207,000	$1,400,000
3295 E Cm Juan Paisano	$1,413,000	$1,400,000
1783 E Sahuaro Blossom	$1,883,000	$2,100,000
7501 N Christie Dr	$880,000	$665,900
5220 N Via De La Granja	$673,500	$640,000
6595 E Placita Alhaja	$742,000	$640,000
4951 N Aven De Castilla	$1,212,500	$615,000
6171 N Via Del Pichon	$639,000	$605,000

They cover their butts with the Value Range, but getting it right with the Value Range is about as tricky as hitting the side of a barn from 10 paces.

The Value Range for 3295 E Camino Juan Paisano is
$974,970 - $1,497,780.

with all the homes for sale in the Foothills, we're sure to find lots of great choices, right (V.2)

I posted this piece earlier this year, and I ran across it today and thought - with inventory down and more buyers in the market - it’s more relevant now. So here it is again, with the figures updated to reflect current inventory.
__________________________________________________________

Yeah, sure, of course we’ll find plenty to choose from, are you kidding. With 593 491 single family homes for sale in the Foothills, and slow sales, you'd think so, wouldn't you.

Let's look at a hypothetical/typical buyer looking for a home in the Foothills with a price range of $800,000 to $950,000.

-at $800,000 to $950,000 there are 45 39 homes for sale, more than  plenty, too many you say, heh.
-yes of course, 4 bedrooms & 3 baths - 37 28 homes
-3000 to 4000 sq ft - no prob, 24 19 for sale
-you'd like about an acre, let's say .80 or more - 16 14 gorgeous homes
-and in District 16 schools - OK, 10 8 homes, That's Perfect!
-and you'd like to be in 85718 zip - down to 6
-single story, yes of course- that's 4 6 really great homes to choose from
-oh, and a pool - OK let's go, with 3 homes, we should be able to wrap this whole thing up this afternoon.

After putting in some very typical basic criteria, here are
the three homes left standing  Which one would you like.
**link will expire on 9/4/09**

And we didn't even get into the style or the age of the home, whether it was in a gated or non-gated area, city or mountain views, and other typical buyer preferences. And of course, you want to get a great deal on that house too, right.

It happens every time. Once you start breaking down all the homes for sale in the Foothills, which run the gamut from under $200k to over $6 mil, you end up with too few, not too many, to choose from. Even now.
__________________________________________________________

And it’s odd, isn’t it, that with 100 fewer homes for sale, we still end up with 3 to choose from.

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what a long strange trip it’s been

 
click map to enlarge

It all started with 5775 N Campbell Ave, # 1 up there

Built in 1973, it sold in 2003 for $1,325,000 with 6.8 acres of land.  And just 6 days later it went back on the market, sans 5+ acres, for $1,599,000. It’s true. They stripped off 5+ acres, added $274,000 to the price they had just paid and expected someone to come along and buy it. The 5+ acres were split off and split up to build new spec homes.

And along the way, no one bought it, and 5775 went into foreclosure and after a long haul sold this February for $660,000- that's after 5+ grueling years on the market.

Meanwhile, a few spec homes were built on the 5+ acres and 2 of them also ended up as short sales. So now you had this cute little enclave of 5 or 6 homes, but 3 of them were either in short sale or foreclosure. And they were vacant and the weeds and the elements were taking over. And the 2 that weren’t in distress, were, I’m sure, suffering from the dark cloud hanging over the 3 that were.

And I wondered, skeptically and on this blog, who, what buyer was going to step forward and make the first move to buy the first of those 3 distress sales.

Well some brave soul did. In February they bought 5775, the mother ship. And that, I guess, got the ball rolling.

then #’s 2 & 3 went.
5759 N Campbell Ave, built 2004, sold in April as a short sale for $540,000. That was after nearly 2 years from an original $935,000 asking price.

and now, 5771 N Campbell Ave, built 2006, - the house that’s gotten so much attention on this blog recently – sold today for $860,000, also as a short sale after about 18 months.

But all that's now in the past. And finally, after 5+ years of comings and goings of lookers & buyers & agents & who knows what, all the homes are owned & occupied by people who care about them. And with a little spit and polish, this enclave off Campbell Ave can finally begin to enjoy life as a nice, normal and uneventful little community.

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how to keep those annoying showings down to a minimum

5880 E Calle Val was listed today for $595,000 and, while it seems like a nice enough house, I’d be surprised if it got many showings.

You see the listing stipulates that prior to showing it, your buyers, who at this point are really only lookers, must present a completed LSR. And presumably, it'll have to pass muster with the seller and/or their agent.

SHOW BY APPT ONLY-MUST HAVE LSR PRIOR TO SHOW, FAX TO …
ESCROW W/FATCO, M. HESTEKIN

An LSR is a Loan Status Report and it’s completed by your lender or mortgage broker. It has the name and signatures of the buyers/borrowers, the property address, the amount of the loan, how much they’re putting down, the interest rate, the term of the loan, the type of loan – conventional, FHA,… - how far along they are in the lending process, the lenders name, address, signature and more.

They’re submitted when a buyer makes an offer to purchase a home. Will buyers go through all that rigamarole just to have a look. Yeah sure.

cha-ching

6160 N Calle De La Culebra just sold for $1,120,000 off a $1,199,000 list price after going to contract in just 30 days.

Notable here is that Calle De La Culebra is in Shadow Hills. And not only is this a record price for that community, but, going all the way back to 2000, there’s been just one other sale in Shadow Hills above $900k, and that was for $1.1 last year. Imagine that.

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worth the wait?

6380 N Placita De Tia Ro in Alta Vista last sold in July 06 for $1,050,000 and was re-listed in March 08 for $1,350,000.

That didn’t sound like a formula for success and I wrote about it at the time- John and Jane bought a beautiful house in Alta Vista 

And it seems the market agreed. But today, after a year and half of chasing a falling market – and finally getting it down to $1,060,000, it’s gone to contract. And we’ll have to wait and see what it closes for, but I think, going to contract at $1,060,000, they should count their lucky stars.

Or is this just another teensy-weensy little sign of a market that’s clawing it’s way to recovery mode.

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Pima Canyon is more than pulling it’s weight

1783 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl in Pima Canyon, sold today for $2,100,000 ($297/sf) off a $2.495 list price. This is a spec home that’s been on the market since March 06 and started out listed at $2.895, and held there for two years before the first price cut– to $2.695 then $2.495.

And that makes high-end sale #6 for Pima Canyon in the last three months.

While the entire rest of the foothills saw just 6 other high-end sales during the same period. 

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for sale, sold and supply, by price range

Yesterday I reported that the overall months-supply of homes for sale in the Foothills is down to 6.9 months. That’s based on the number of homes currently for sale, 487 today, and the 71 homes sold in July.

And I commented that this was dramatically lower than it’s been in a couple of years. And it is. But. Even though sales are up and inventory is down across the board, months of inventory varies widely depending on price range.

Here’s how it breaks out;

Price	# For Sale	# Sold	= months supply
$0 - $599	243	50	4.8
$600 - $999	132	15	8.8
$1,000,000 Up	112	6	18.6
Totals	487	71	6.9

So $0 to $599, with just a 4.8 month supply, is considered a sellers market. A sellers market, Imagine that.

From there, supply edges up into buyers market territory in the mid-range (6 months supply is considered an even, or normal, market), and on to a still very weak market at the high-end.

At the current inventory, $1.0 and up would need to sell 3X as many homes in order to stabilize. And hiding in the bushes are quite a few 
high-end homes that have left the market unsold and, sooner or later, will return for another go at it.

Nevertheless, this is a big improvement in sales and months-supply, vs. where we were a few months ago.

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