The Catalina Foothills

face it- in the end, the value of a home is the price the buyer is willing to pay

Excerpted from The New York Times

WHEN Matthew White, a landscape architect, decided two years ago to sell his 1,300-square-foot apartment in Philadelphia, he knew real estate prices were plummeting. Nevertheless, he thought he could get $760,000, about what he had paid two years earlier, because he had made many improvements to the space, an airy penthouse with two verdant terraces.

“It’s an incredible property, with spectacular views,” he said. Within a month, he got what he considered an “insulting” bid of $525,000. Five price reductions later, he wishes he had taken that offer. “I wasn’t realistic about what I could get,” said Mr. White, whose apartment is currently listed for $449,900. “It is such a special place, but now I realize that doesn’t matter during a recession.”

Leonard Calandriello, a retired banker in Chandler, Ariz., said he felt “entitled” to $500,000 for the 1,975-square-foot town house he bought new in 2007 for $470,000, then upgraded with enhancements like plantation shutters and a travertine patio, spending another $30,000. But with nearby foreclosures and the developer of his community cutting deals, he has had to reduce his asking price twice since May, to $399,000. “We may have to come down more,” he said. “Psychologically it can really get you down.”

The attractiveness of construction and design elements is subjective, so experts said it might be as meaningful to poll your most straight-talking friends. “You may love your new sauna and think it’s a wonderful and attractive feature, but someone else may not care, or even think they need a deduction so they can rip it out,” Mr. Amorin said.

It’s hard to believe we’re still having this discussion, but we are, and for good reason.

From The New York Times - Getting Serious About Your House and the Market

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what happened today

The biggest news of the day, no question, is that 5543 N Espina Rd sold. It’s a wonderful Joesler, built in 59, 3 years after his death but from his plans. And unmistakably a Joesler. In the marketing remarks, the listing agent wrote; One visitor said, This is what I envision when I think of Tucson style.

How true, but also, a style that is fast fading in favor of fake Tuscans and Mediterranean’s and blah
Espina Rd had been on the market starting at $1,695,000 in 06 and selling today for $1,125,000 from a $1,199,000 list price. $247/sf.

What else,

2 new high end listings,

At $1,195,000, 3178 E Corte De Andalucia in Hacienda del Sol Estates – 2008 built/4066 sf/4 Beds/4 Baths/1 acre/and so on 

and
4620 N Camino Gacela in Heatherwood Hills, $985,000 – 2006 built/4030 sf/4 Beds/4 Baths/.92 acres/ etc/ and see for yourself, but looks to me that it may be on the high side for Heatherwood Hills.

6271 N Whaleback Pl in Ventana CC had a nice price cut today -from $1,149,000 to $999,000, on the market 191 days.

1631 E Entrada Once, listed 41 days ago and, at the time, I said it couldn’t last - has finally gone to contract, about 31 days later than I figured.  But better late …..

in distress sales,

6159  N Via De La Tortola in La Paloma sold today. Finally. On the market as a REO for 189 days, starting at $586,500, it went for $448,875. I saw this place way back when and was not at all impressed. In a word, cramped.

and in the cheap seats,

2321 E Calle Lustre, 1937 built – and purchased in 05 for $750,000 - and with a renovation since started, but never completed, not nearly, went to contract today listed at $407,425, as a REO. 4400 sf/1 acre, $93/sf as listed. How bad could it be?

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seldom seen in the foothills

We have more SW contemporaries, Tuscans and Mediterranean's than we know what to do with, but very few real contemporary style homes.

Here’s one that was listed last week that I’d previewed for a client, but they’re taking a pass;

7915 N Sendero De Juana is in Cobo Catalina Hills, adjacent to the west side of Pima Canyon, on 4.7 acres, very private and with wonderful mountain & city views. It was built in 1982 and extensively and beautifully renovated in 2005. 4136 sf, including a full separate guest house- totaling 4 bedrooms/3.5 baths with a bright open floor plan.
$1,250,000/$302/sf.

Have a peek;

And the listing with lots more pictures> 7915 N Sendero De Juana

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full price sales

2 foothills homes sold today for list price

5451 N Agave Dr – listed $419,000 Sold $419,000, in 10 days.

4025 N Wilmot Rd – listed $445,000 Sold $445,000, in 13 days.

And coincidentally, both sold for $198/sf

October Sales

Overall, the number of homes sold is down – and - the number of homes sold at the low-end of the market is down (for the first time in a long time) – but - the number of homes sold at the mid level, formerly the meat and potatoes of the market, is up (for the first time in a long time) 
And the high-end, million+ homes, forgetaboutit, they had the slowest month in months. 

	October	September	August	July
total sold	43	48	48	74
$0 - 499	21	29	32	44
$500- 999	21	15	9	24
$1.0 & up	1	4	7	6
Avg Sold$	$552,606	$540,780	$563,104	$587,791
Med Sold$	$510,000	$420,000	$432,606	$465,000
avg $$/sf	$183	$173	$193	$187
total sales	$23,762,050	25,957,419	27,029,012	43,496,502

But with more mid level sales, and fewer low-end sales, the median price is up appreciably and the average is holding it’s own too.  And seeing that, it’s tempting to say the increased sales we’ve seen at the low-end, in previous months, is now working it’s way up into the mid level.

But it’s too soon. And it may just be another blip and, in the past, I’ve been hasty and stepped in that one before, so I won’t say that. But it is encouraging.

CORRECTION: There were 3 additional sales in October, all at the low end, that were reported late. Here are the corrected numbers;

total sold = 46/$0-$499=24 sold/average sold = $540,477/Median Sold =  $455,438/avg $$/sf = $181/sf/total sales = $24,861,925

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you never know

6025 E Fangio Pl in Alta Vista, listed for $824,999, went to contract after just 2 months on the market and sold today for $735,000. You’d think that after just 2 months the sellers would hang a little tougher on their asking price. Wouldn’t you.

also in Alta Vista,

6661 N Placita Alta Reposa is back on the market today with a new agent and a new price.
Until last week it had been for sale for 289 days – starting at $1,795,000 and ending up at $1,595,000. But since they paid $1,200,000 for it in 2004, when it was brand new, it’s not terribly surprising that it didn’t sell in 2009 at $1,795,000 or at $1,595,000. Why would it.
Now it’s $1,495,000, better, but they’re still hanging tough.

There are 15 homes for sale in Alta Vista from $529,000 to $2,100,000.
9 sold in the last 6 months – from $499,900 to $2,185,000 - so about a 10 month supply. 

and talk about hanging tough,

7180 E Ventana Canyon Dr on the market for 789 days for $1,999,900 – and not a single price cut - expired today and was immediately relisted for the same $1,999,900. Why mess with a winning formula. Oh, and the current owners paid $1,245,000 in 05.

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why buyers and sellers see things differently

All the buyers I talk with are keenly interested in the market and in prices – the prices that homes are listed for, the prices they’ve been reduced to and from, the prices they’re selling for and the prices they sold for last year and the year before.

They’re looking very closely and comparing homes, one to another. They’re looking at $$/sf costs, both for listed homes and those that have sold. They’re looking at average and median selling prices this year compared to years past. They’re looking at days or, more likely, months on the market and % of sale price/list price. And they’re looking at the economy, at where we might be headed and factoring that into their computations.

Buyers are putting in the time and really doing their homework. And they’re not in a rush. They’re careful, skeptical and have a highly tuned bs antennae. They're looking at things as they are, at reality.

My sense is that most sellers are doing very little, if any, of that kind of market research. They’re not traipsing around the foothills for weeks on-end looking at homes and, with a critical eye, comparing them to theirs. They’re not comparing sold prices then and now and poring over data in an honest attempt to arrive at a marketable asking price.
They’re looking at comps, maybe, if you can find comps, and then maybe ignoring them, and hoping for a miracle. 

There’s that old cliché that’s always tossed around about buying a home is your biggest investment, blah blah blah.
Well it’s also true for sellers. Because you’re betting the farm, and if you don’t get it right in this kind of market, you’re bound to lose.

playing catch up

The big action in the last couple of days was in Expired listings.

15 Expireds in the Foothills with 6 of them for houses priced well over a million $$.

One of them is in Cat 10 and it caught my eye because I’d had a conversation with the listing agent more than a year ago, when it was listed for $2,195,000. At the time she asked my advice on the price, and I gave it to her. I told her that if they wanted a reasonable shot at selling it they should drop it to around $1,600,000 - $1,650,000 tops. (I think she thought I was crazy) So they didn’t do that. Instead, the market got worse and they dropped it a little here, and the market got more worse, and they dropped it a little there. Never quite catching up. And I know she spent a lot of money on advertising and a lot of time showing the house, over and over again. That went on for almost 2 years, but that agent got nothing for her efforts.

Because it expired yesterday at the stroke of midnight and was relisted today, with a new agent at a new price. $1,600,000. Ta-da!

The problem now is there’s so much high-end competition in Cat 10 -16 homes for sale, 15 of them priced over a million $$. And not a single million $$ sale since February 08. Crazy but true.

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