The Catalina Foothills

ahead of the bell

Since we could all use a little good news, I thought I’d jump the gun a bit and publish March home sales numbers for the Tucson Foothills.

It’s a little early to be doing this, and I’ll update it and expand it over the next couple of days, but it can only get better as additional sales for March are turned in; 
March sales -

62 67 sold this March

41 sold last March

50 sold March 08

60 sold March 07

Beating last years numbers was a no-brainer, hardly worth mentioning. But inching ahead of March 07, before any of the serious fall-out fell out, well, that’s worth mentioning.

(43 from $0 - $599/15 from $600 to $999/4 from $1.0)

+ +

78 homes are in contract

57 from $0 - $599
8 from $600 - $999
13 from $1.0 up

why now

on the market since March 2006, when it was listed for $3,200,000,
1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl went to contract today listed at $1,999,999 ($357/sf). This is a Pima Canyon spec home that, hopefully, has finally have found a home.  (Listed by Long Realty)

The contract is Active CAPA, which indicates the contract is contingent on the buyer selling a property prior to closing this deal.
Often an ifffy proposition. But it depends at what point in the sale process the buyer is with their property.
Anyway, again I ask, why now.

Oh, and a new listing in Skyline CC.
6900 N Gleneagles Dr - $1,150,000 ($296/sf)
Last sold in 03 for $800,000, but looks as if it may have had a major facelift since then. See it Here (listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

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the listing said, ‘Priced to Sell Quickly’

and it did. It sold in 3 days.

6990 N Solaz Segundo sold for $544,000 ($167/sf) off a $560,000 list price. Nothin’ to it, eh. Well, this was the 2nd go-round for Solaz Segundo. (listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc.)

1st go-round was 14 months on the market with nothing to show for it  – listed for $795,000 and dropped in dribs and drabs to $635,000, when it finally expired in June 09.

Then on Jan 26, a new agent, a new listing and a new price and, BAM! gone in 3 days.

PS- Solaz Segundo last sold in August 04, for $618,000.
Yep, that’s the way it is.

There are buyers out there waiting for the right deal to come along, while ignoring the homes listed at yesterdays prices.

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3771 E Sumo Octavo in Cat 10

just went to contract listed at $1,350,000 ($214/sf)

That follows a $150,000 price cut just last week, making it $845,000 off it’s Jan 08 asking price of $2,195,000.

At $214/sf it was by far the cheapest house for sale in Cat 10 in $$/sf - where the average of those for sale is now $321/sf.
And it is much more in line with the six homes that have sold in Cat 10 – which average $213/sf. And it probably sold for at least a few bucks under asking, so less than $214.

I wrote about Sumo Octavo last week when it dropped $150 thou, and called it too little too late

I’m glad it wasn’t and I hope it sticks. 3771 E Sumo Octavo

There are buyers out there waiting for the right deal to come along while ignoring the homes listed at yesterdays prices.

a banner month for the mountain estates at Ventana

6609 N Eagle Ridge Dr, in the Mountain Estates of Ventana, sold today for $1,700,000 ($384/sf) off its latest list price of $1,749,000.
(it’s held tight at $1,749,000 for more than a year)

On the market since July 07, when it was listed for $1,999,999, I’d say they gave up very little, considering that the worst of the economic turmoil has been in the 2 1/2 years since it was listed.

Curiously, this is the 2nd sale in the Mountain Estates this month.
The last one was at 6755 N Hole In The Wall Way on March 9 for $2,200,000 ($344/sf). see – just 1 new contract reported

Curiously, I say, because prior to these two sales, nothing has sold in the Mountain Estates since May 08 – nearly two years.

And with two sales in one month, and just 3 remaining for sale, the months of inventory in the mountain estates is down to an extremely enviable  1 1/2 months – 45 days. Unheard of.

are we getting near the bottom

People are starting to wonder about that. I hear it more and more.
And I don’t know the answer. But whether we are or not it may help put things in perspective to trace our path from the glory days to where we are today.

First, the number of homes sold annually, which is often a good predictor of where prices are headed

Then, average and median sold prices over that same period

So though sales are off 46% from their peak in 05, sale prices are off just 24% from their peak in 06.

But 2 positive things did occur in 2009/2010; in 2009, for the first time in 5 years the number of homes sold held steady rather than fall, and, so far this year, sales are up measurably vs 09.
And, for the first time in 4 years, average sale prices have gone up a notch, rather than down. Median prices, however, have slipped.
So maybe, sales & prices are at least flat rather than falling.

And over in this corner - our high-end market, which is definitely not anywhere near bottom, with sales off 70% from its 06 peak and scads more spec homes – a calamity in slow motion.

 

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the $0 to $600k market is doing well

Why do I keep saying that. Because it’s true. And because this year, more homes are selling in that price range than have since 2005,

Sold Jan 1 – March 28th in the Tucson Foothills

2010 – 88 sold @ $163/sf

2009 – 67 sold @ $162/sf

2008 – 70 sold @ $188/sf

2007 – 76 sold @ $203/sf

2006 – 85 sold @ $209/sf

2005 – 163 sold @ $177/sf

While it still has a ways to go, this is a market in real recovery mode. And if sales keep up, if, if, we may also see prices start to inch up. 

And PS, just 7 of this years sales are foreclosures. (I can’t accurately tell for past years as the record keeping was flimsy)

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dealing with the grim realities of the high-end home market

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2+ years, 3 real estate agents and about $600k in price cuts

and 4744 E Mission Hill Dr finally sold today for $650,000.

it was purchased in November 07 for $824,000 and 2 days later the proud new owners put it back on the market asking $1,250,000.
Yes 2 days later and they wanted $1,250,00! Takes all kinds.

Well it’s been on the market ever since,
2+ years, 3 real …

it’s like watching grass grow

that’s the high-end market here in the Tucson Foothills, it’s gotten so slow …

@ $1.0 & up,
10 sold since Jan 1; (**the last sale was March 9)
$1,050,000 to $2,200,000

$1,494,000 – avg sold $$
$1,435,000 – med sold $$
$276/sf – avg $$/sf

117 for sale;
$1,025,000 to $13,500,000

$2,143,667 – avg list $$
$1,569,000 – med list $$
$381/sf – avg $$/sf

On the bright side, we have sold 1 more this year than during the same period last year.

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from WSJ.com, 2 articles that seem to have been written for the Tucson Foothills real estate market

forwarded to me from a reader & client,

Castles for the Common Man

Three years into the housing bust, steep discounts are emerging in the market for high-end homes, which had been the real-estate industry's last redoubt until now. Despite the budding economic recovery, demand for pricey properties is falling as potential buyers struggle to come up with money for big down payments and find it difficult to qualify for large mortgages. With buyers dropping out and homes languishing on the market, sellers are beginning to capitulate, cutting prices to move their properties.

The result: Buyers with lots of cash, or access to it, can find great deals. Not all million-dollar homes are castles, especially in coastal markets. But price drops and relatively small bumps in budget are landing shoppers the kind of amenities—kingly bathrooms, stables, gates—that were once beyond reach. Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, says it is a "very good time to be a buyer at the high end."

A Good Time to Buy? Yes, But No Need to Rush

One problem is that many homeowners at higher price points aren’t realistic about prices and wait too long to pursue a short sale, where a home is sold for less than the amount owed, says Maggie Navarro, a real-estate agent in Pasadena, Calif. “It’s very, very difficult for these people to believe they’ve had such a severe reversal of fortune,” she says. “The higher-end people are so much less realistic than sellers on the more modest end of the scale.”

if buyers aren’t out there looking

I was showing homes all day today, homes in the $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 range in the Foothills. It was a good day, we saw about a dozen. But at most of those homes I was the only agent who’d signed in and shown the home in the last 10 days or so.

So 1 showing, occasionally 2, every 10 days - whether you need it or not. And this is the height of the season.

4681 N Camino Sumo

When it was listed on Feb 12th I called it a no-brainer that
‘can’t, won’t last’ – this is a no brainer

And it didn’t, 5 days later it was in contract at $995,000 list price and closed late today for $988,500 ($216/sf). Quick work.

But if you had your eyes open, you couldn’t miss it - it stood way
out from the crowd.


The crowd being the other 18 homes for sale in Cat 10 that have been sitting and sitting, and going nowhere. Not at those prices.
Not these days.

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believe me, if there was anything happening in foothills real estate, anything at all worth mentioning, I’d be writing about it

but it’s just dead slow,

I stopped at my office today, it was a like a ghost town, dead, and asked the girls at the front desk ‘how’s it going’.  Now they never say it’s slow, they just don’t – cheerful, corporate positive thinking. Anyway, today one of them whispered, ‘it’s slowww’ but then quickly added  ‘probably the calm before the storm’, to which I replied, ‘if so, and the storm turns out to be anything like the calm, we’re in for a helluva ride’

World’s Luxury-Home Prices Drop on Financial Crisis

From BusinessWeek.com

Luxury homes became more affordable last year as the financial crisis eroded prices from Monaco to Barbados, according to Knight Frank LLP.

Prime real-estate values at 56 locations declined by an average of 5.5 percent, the London-based property broker said in a report published today. Monaco was the most expensive market for the second year in a row, followed by London and Paris.

Wealthy individuals put off making purchases in 2009 because of concern about the economy, Knight Frank said. Prices of properties in the countryside, coastal locations and ski resorts, often bought as second homes, fell by at least 12 percent. The biggest declines were in Dubai, in the western part of Portugal’s Algarve, in Palma on the Spanish island of Mallorca and in Dublin. Values in each of those markets fell at least 22 percent.

Read all about it> World’s Luxury-Home Prices Drop …

things don’t always go smoothly

5661 E Shadow View Ct,
listed for $845,000, went to contract last June and was scheduled to close escrow in the next couple of months. But trouble started when the would be buyer, who’d been given early possession, that is, possession prior to COE, backed out of the deal. That’s right, they’d negotiated and gotten possession and then backed out of the deal to buy the house. Worse yet, apparently there was a disagreement regarding the earnest money and the buyer refused to vacate premises. (Listed by Realty Executives Southern Arizona)

And it wasn’t until 6 months later, on December 28, that that buyer was removed and the house put back in condition and re-listed. This time for $825,000.
Fortunately another buyer came along in just 3 days and the house was back in escrow. It finally closed today – hurrah -  for $815,000 ($249/sf)

Possession, prior to COE is fraught with undesirable possibilities,

latest Foothills homes sales

51 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days

51 is a healthy number of sales, Yipeee!
But see how it breaks down;

37 sold @ $0 - $599, 72.5%
12 sold @ $600 - $999, 23.5%
  2 sold @ $1.0 & up, 4%

So we have a healthy, robust lower-end market, a struggling mid level market, and a high-end market that, for now, is barely hanging on by it’s fingernails.

The $$ averages for those 51 sales are:
$560,221- avg sold/$400,000- median sold/@ $189/sf.

While the $$ averages for the 496 currently for sale are:
$921,196- avg list/$589,000- median list/@ $239/sf.

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2 contracts

This is how it’s supposed to work. On Monday, the contracts from the weekend’s real estate dealings are supposed to come poring in. And it’s all the better if those contracts are for homes that haven’t been lolling around on the market for two or three years, but rather, for homes that were priced right from the start. And did well because of it. Like these.

5402 N Camino Real, a Joesler, which came and went so fast I never got around to mentioning it. Actually I was saving it for a client of mine. Oh well. This was just listed on Saturday – Built 1950/2672 sf/
4 Beds/3 Baths/1 acre/pool-spa/$799,000 ($299/sf) & gone in a flash.

And 6440 N Desert Wind Cir in Ventana Country Club Estates went to contract at $1,195,000 ($331/sf) list price. It must be a desirable home and also priced right. It’s only been on the market for 60 days and there’s a ton of other homes for sale in Ventana that have been sitting around for eons. And somebody picked this one.

2 contracts does not quite qualify as poring in, but, hey, it’s a start and it’s 2 more than last week.

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too little too late

3771 E Sumo Octavo – on the market since Jan 2008 when it listed for $2,195,000 - is down to $1,350,000 today after a 150 thou price cut. (Listed by Long Realty)

You’d like to have some sympathy for homeowners in these situations  - on the market 2+ years, down almost 40% from their original asking price, and still no buyer is sight.

But when you see how many of them ignored the market and hung on for months or years at prices that the market had rejected, and rejected over and over again, as too high, sympathy is not the feeling that wells up in you.

Likewise, getting your offer rejected from agents who were often indignant that you would make THAT (puny) OFFER, does not lead to feelings of sympathy. And often, THAT (puny) OFFER was equal to or greater than the (still on the market & rotting on the vine) current asking prices for many of these properties.

An it’s not over - prices at the high end in the Tucson Foothills market still have a ways to go. So look out below.

of questionable provenance

5320 N Camino Real was reduced from $1,150,000 to $995,000.
(listed by J Bar M Realty) 
And that’s a nice tidy price cut. And now it’s just under a mil too.

But the price cut reminded of another issue looming over 5320.
That is, whether or not it is a Joesler. When it was listed 53 days ago I noted that the listing described the property as; Classic Tucson Home by Joesler (per owner)on hilltop lot with Mountain and city views…

And I expected that in short order the listing agent would clear up the mystery of whether or not 5320 is, or is not, a Joesler. But no, that still hasn’t happened.

If it were a Joesler it would be more special, more prized and more sought after. So why not confirm it and tout it.

On the other hand, if it weren’t, it would just be another old house.

Caveat emptor

Sunday 3/21

As I often do on a Sunday, I moseyed around the foothills this afternoon - listening to Patsy Cline, Ray Charles & The Rolling Stones - and popped in on some open houses in upper-end foothills communities. But unlike my effusive report in February on the bustling open house scene – an observation – my outing today found mostly empty, or nearly empty, open houses and dejected open house agents.

I sympathize. It’s no fun to prep, set up and sit thru an open house and then have no one show. Depressing, it is.

The absence of buyers out on the street, combined with the utter lack of activity in new contracts at the upper-end, paints an increasingly bleak picture of a market that’s already in deep deep doo-doo.

If you attended an open house today, or you’re an agent who held one open, we’d love to hear how it went.

And, to be clear, I’m talking upper-end foothills homes. Let’s say $800k +. Thanks. Write in, share, get it off your chest, 

the foothills real estate pie

how the foothills market is doing varies widely depending on price range, in both the homes for sale & the homes selling

The $0 - $599 price range = 52% of all the homes for sale & 73% of all the homes sold.

The $600 - $999 range = 23% of the homes for sale & 17% of the homes sold.

The $1.0 & Up range = 25% of the homes for sale & 9.6% of the homes sold

here’s the data

Price Range	# for sale	% of total	# sold	% of total	MOI
$0 - $599	261	52%	76	73%	8.5
$600 - $999	113	23%	18	17%	15+
$1.0 & Up	122	25%	10	9.6%	30.5
Totals	496		104		12

* # sold, is since Jan 1
**MOI = months of inventory

against all odds

A new listing today in Rivergate Estates, a newer gated community on the north side of River Rd east of Craycroft. This one, at 6124 E Owls Nest Pl, listed for $1,200,000 ($295/sf). (by Tierra Antigua Realty)

And while that doesn’t sound too far fetched, consider that the highest sale in Rivergate was for $960,000 in June 06. And the 4 other sales in there were for $840, $820, $800 & $625, and that’s it. No more.
It’s also way high on the $$/sf scale for Rivergate. And all these Rivergate homes were built in 2006 or 2007, so they’re all very comparable.

So is now the time to be the buyer of the highest priced home in Rivergate?

La Paloma Dr

4150 E La Paloma Dr, on the market since 2006 and priced as high as $2,550,000, went to contract today listed at $1,500,000 ($243/sf)

Views! That’s what La Paloma Dr is all about.

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another lop-sided week for million $$ homes,

this past week we’ve seen 9 houses listed at a million and up – 4 of them new listings, the remaining 5 re-listed old listings.
Their average/median list price is $1,814,444/$1,390,000 @$333/sf

And 2 have gone to contract at an average/median of $1,154,500/$1,154,500 @ $216/sf – appreciably less than those being listed.

This imbalance, between the price of homes being listed and those selling, has been going on, day in day out, for 2 or 3 years now. I’ve alluded to it frequently on these pages. And that imbalance, combined with low sales and high inventory, is going to lead to a new round of distress sales that will shake the high end, wake a few people up, and lead to some last ditch, desperate price reductions by others.

And some of this will be on even higher-end, more mainstream properties than we’ve seen in the past. Properties for which most people would forever deny the possibility of anything but the happiest of endings.

And worse yet, I don’t see any way around it. We’re now too far downstream to turn around.

you can ask whatever you want

is the only thing that came to mind when I saw this new listing in Skyline CC.

It last sold in 2004 for $819,000 ($192/sf) and today is asking $1,450,000 (307/sf)  + 77%. 6640 N Los Leones Dr (Listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

Well, it’s the only thing that came to mind that was printable

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high-end goods, bargain price and a Quick Sale

3 weeks ago I wrote about a new spec house being built in the foothills - high-end goods, bargain price - We need another spec home like we need another Walgreens, but a new spec was listed today at what appears to be a real bargain price.
It’s under construction, to be completed in July, so too early to tell…

21 days later and that project is under contract.
See it here> 2801 E Plaza Encantada

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in Foothills II

The house formerly known as the Miami Vice house was listed today.
That’s it below in it’s lively hot pink stage. (not too keen on it’s color, the neighbors in Foothills II had named it the Miami Vice house)

I know it well, I listed it in 2004 and soon a buyer and his agent came along and paid $1.1 for it. (the neighbors were ever so hopeful the new owner would be more sensible about the color, and I guess he was – tan is so much more sensible than hot pink. eh)

And today the owner and his agent listed it for $1,390,000 ($331/sf). So see it for yourself & you decide >
3600 E Windy Point Dr
(Link expires 6/30/10) (Listed by Long Realty)

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Finally! Finally!

That’s finally a home priced at over a million has gone to contract and broken our 14 day dry spell. Though I may be jumping the gun here because I’ve got a feeling this one went for under a mil. Just a feeling. And finally this long in the tooth spec home has gone to contract. jeez.

5910 N Mina Vista, first listed in January 2007 for $1,795,000, went to contract today listed at $1,160,000($225/sf) as a short sale.

This was part of that original crop of specs - most of which sold last year through foreclosure or short sale - that appeared early on, just as the fizz was going out of the boom.

But I never thought this was a terrible house and am surprised that it had to sink this low before a buyer bit. But who knows, maybe they turned down offers that they would now kill for.

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dream dream dream

I went on an agent tour early this afternoon – 4 houses in La Paloma – all of which, to my eye, were at 2 years ago prices.
But these are usually pretty superficial affairs, with no dickering over prices and nasty stuff like that, and this one was no exception. Everyone comes thru the house and oohs and aaahs about how wonderful it is, then you grab a sandwich or a brownie and smile and munch and make small talk and leave. And no one’s feathers get ruffled and everyone can go on pretending.

And even though I know the protocol of these events, I went ahead anyway and tried to have a conversation with one or two of the listing agent’s about their list price vis a vis the market, and why I was pretty sure they’d get nowhere listed where they were, etc, etc.

What a dumb move that was. Not only did that conversation go absolutely nowhere, but - they smiled, totally ignored what I said and without missing a beat slipped into their sales pitch. Yuck!

not a thing you can do about it

4610 N Camino Real sold today for $775,000($182/sf).

It’s a very charming and nicely updated burnt adobe on a very private lot with a gorgeous backyard and a great guest house. And, with all that, it took about a year to sell because it’s also one of those rare foothills properties that are in a flood zone.

It’s a 2.2 acre lot and the flood zone cuts into just a sliver of the eastern portion of the property. But that puts it in the flood zone, and that requires flood insurance and all that makes it a tough sell.

And I wonder what it feels like when your house is in a flood zone and you’re having the kind of pounding rain storms we’ve had this winter.
Must be unsettling as hell.

For that reason alone it wouldn’t be for me.

bringing in the big guns

Bill and Eve Smith, who are both real estate agents and the owners of a 6900 sf spec home in the Canyons - which they’ve had listed themselves for the last year for about $4,500,000 - withdrew the listing today and re-listed the house with Robin Kaiserman of Long Realty. Not unheard of, but pretty unusual for 2 veteran agents.

But in this case, maybe with good cause as there were some noticeable improvements right off the bat. The pictures in the listing went from looking like
this


To This

and from this

To this,

and this

To This

I have no idea what it’s going to take for homes in this price range to start selling again but, at least, they now have a fighting chance.

it’s lonely at the top

Here’s a look at what is for sale and sold in some of our more esteemed foothills communities. As you’ll see, we’re long on supply and very short on sales. And I see no indication or reason whatsoever for this to change appreciably anytime soon.
If you do, I’d love to hear all about it.
(prices shown are average/median, list or sold prices) & do notice, in those communities where homes have sold, the rather large gap between list and sold prices. This can’t last last.

19 for sale in Pima Canyon – $2,556,911/$2,395,000, 10 of them spec homes. 4 sold in the last 3 months – $1,171,250/$1,005,000

8 for sale in the Canyons – $5,326,250/$4,225,000 
At least 4 of those are specs and nothing has sold in there since July 2008.

4 for sale in La Paloma Estates – $1,608,750/$1,345,000.
None sold in the last 3.

16 for sale in Skyline Country Club Estates - $1,454,125/$1,247,500
5 sold in the last 3 months -  $1,008,900/$1,100,000 

15 for sale at Ventana Country Club - $1,441,327/$1,399,000 
1 sold in the last 3 months for $980,000.

And for my fav, Catalina Foothills Estates 10, 18 for sale - $1,607,000/$1,499,500.
3 sold in the last 3 months -  $820,567/$850,000

3 in Cobblestone - $1,865,667/$1,949,000 
2 sold - $1,025,000/$1,025,000

With all those homes for sale and so few selling, you’d think you’d be able to find a good deal in there somewhere. And you can, but you have to put in some time and some effort. First, you have to really figure out the kind of home you want – the size, style, location, amenities, etc, and then you’ll have to learn the market well enough that when a good deal does come along you’re able to recognize it and move on it. Quickly. Because if it’s truly a good deal, if you don’t jump on it, someone else will. And yes, even in this crappy market, there are lots of buyers waiting in the bushes for the right one to come along. As a matter of fact, that’s where all the buyers are, waiting for the right deal.

Ok, so you should have learned the market well enough that you don’t even need no stinkin’ comps. That’s right, you know it well enough that when you see it, you know it, no question. Just like that.

In the last year or so I don’t think any of my buyer clients looked at comps for the house they ended up buying. They didn’t need to. By then, they knew the market better than what comps could have told them.

what’s happened while I’ve been away

In the last 14 days just one home priced at $1.0 or more has gone to contract in the foothills. One home, in two weeks. And this is March, the height of the season.

I’m back today and not 100%, but much better.

And that’s the first thing I looked at when I went online today – how many mil+ deals have been made while I’ve been sleeping the days away. None. Not a one. The one mentioned above is from March 5th. Nothing since.

T I M B E R R R R R R

A nice fat contract did close the other day. That was for the house at 6755 N Hole In The Wall Way, it sold for $2,200,000 ($344/sf) off it’s most recent list price of $2,495,000. (Listed by Long Realty)

That’s after nearly 3 years on the market when it was first listed for $3,200,000.

Worth noting is that these sellers paid $2,450,000 for it in March 06 and, for some reason, felt it was worth $3,200,000 just 14 months later. And after quite some time found out that no one else agreed with them. This is the highest priced sale so far this year though. 

In Pima Canyon, 1887 E Desert Garden Dr sold the other day for $1,075,000 ($248/sf) off a $1,250,000 list. That’s down from it’s original list of $1,495,000. (Listed by Long Realty)

It last sold in 01, brand new at the time, for $1,066,000.

Beyond that nothing much happened. A few new listings, the usual meaningless price reductions, this expired, that came back on the market. What else is new. The market up to $600k or so continues to do well.

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even though I’m not blogging lately

don’t worry, you’re not missing anything. Because nothing’s happening, nothing worth mentioning anyway. But I’m still sick and may just be delirious.

I keep expecting to see some fat contracts turn up from last weekend

but nothing so far. 6 homes have gone to contract since Saturday, but the fattest of the bunch is $599,000.

tick-tock-tick-tock

And while we’re on the subject. If you’re trying to sell a million $$ + home in the Foothills and you were hoping to get things wrapped up this season, or even this year, it might be a good idea to face the facts and start working on Plan B.

(119 for sale, 9 sold since Jan 1 = so many more homes for sale than can possibly sell in the next 3 –4 months. More, I’m afraid, than even the most cheerful and optimistic amongst us could possibly manage to put a good spin to)

not much blogging

I’ve been sick, 102° and feeling very yucky.
This too I blame on the weather.
Back soon.

why buyers wait

1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl, was $3,200,000, is now $2,100,000 by Long Realty

3174 E Via Palomita, was $1,850,000, is now $1,569,000 by Tierra Antigua Realty

6273 N Desert Moon Lp, was $1,795,000, is now $1,395,000 by RE/MAX All Executives

6174 E Avenida De Chaparron, was $1,595,000, is now $1,185,000 by RE/MAX All Executives

2611 E Calle Sin Desengano, was $1,150,000 is now $875,000 by Long Realty

6920 N Solaz Primero, was $1,175,000, is now $880,000 by Long Realty

3505 E Windy Point Dr, was $1,550,000, is now $945,000 by Long Realty

3731 E Sumo Septimo, was $1,500,000, is now $975,000 by Long Realty

6020 N Desert Moon Ct, was $1,425,000, is now $995,000 by Long Realty

3141 E Crest Shadows Dr, was $1,495,000, is now $999,000 by Long Realty

3900 N Camino Blanco N, was $3,400,000, is now 1,057,800 by Realty Executives

4912 N Avenida De Castilla, was $1,395,000, is now $1,058,000 by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

6321 N Via Acacia, was $1,549,000, is now $1,099,000 by Philip G Jameson

5910 N Mina vista, was $1,795,000, is now $1,160,000 by Long Realty

5366 E Gleneagles Dr, was $1,750,000 is now $1,195,000 by Realty Executives

6500 N Saint Andrews Dr, was $2,100,000 is now $1,300,000 by Long Realty

3451 E Calle Puerta De Acero, was $2,195,000 is now $1,375,000 by Diamond Foothills Properties

March, the 1st 7 days

30 New listings - $264,9000 to $5,950,000 (about half new and half re-listed old listings)

40 Price Reductions on homes listed from $169,900 to $2,500,000
(7 on homes priced at $1.0 & up)

13 went to contract – from $209,900 to $1,395,000. 10 were from $209,900 to $525,000, then 1 at $699,000, 1 at $899,000.
1 at $1.0 & up.

18 sold from 205,000 to $1,925,000. 12 from $205 to $575,000, 1 at $705, 1 each at $800 & $850, 2 in the $9’s and 1 at $1.0 & up.

A while back I wrote ‘let’s blame it on the weather’. And I was kidding, but no more. Isn’t this the coldest, wettest grayest winter ever. If I were visiting and looking into a move here or a 2nd home, I’d think twice.     

NEW LISTING, OLD FOOTHILLS, 3000 SF, MAGNIFICENT MOUNTAIN VIEWS

listed 5 days ago in the mid $6’s (VACANT-KEYSAFE-SHOW ANYTIME) 
and I stopped by today and was the first visitor.

tick-tock-tick-tock

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

Friday, 3/5

What happened today that’s worth mentioning,

I covered the $1,395,000 contract in Cimarron. here> somebody wanted Cimarron 

And then 7417 & 7431 N Secret Canyon Dr, in the Canyons, were both relisted - at $3,990,000 & $5,950,000 – after 500+ days (by Long Realty) @ ($552 & $618/sf)

And 5080 N Calle Bujia is back again. And if you were interested in it back then you’ll be glad you waited.
It was listed for $879,000 in Sept 06 thru March 07 , but didn’t sell.
So they pulled it and didn’t re-list it until September 08 – yow, talk about timing – this time for $799,000 and it expired 5 months later at $749,000. And again it was off the market from March 09 until today when it returned at $649,000 ($197/sf). Which I think is a good list price for this house. It’s nicely renovated, burnt adobe, built in 1990, 3247 sf, nice mountain views, etc. Clean as a whistle. I had some clients thinking hard about it when it $749,000, but passed. (Listed by Long Realty) 

Half a dozen price reductions and, except for one that dropped from $474,900 to $474,500, ha, nothing worth mentioning.

The former sales office in Cat 10 did go to contract again, this time @ $209,900 list, (listed by Mr. Tucson). Once upon a time someone paid $405,000 for this little brick hut that sits a few paces from the entry/exit gate. And that owner then put it up for sale in 06 for $749,000 and eventually sold it in 08 for $202K. And even if someone wanted to, they couldn’t live in it. It doesn’t qualify as a residence. It’s just a tiny brick hut by the entry gate.

5660 E Shadow View Ct sold for $700,000 ($222/sf) off a $725,000 list price in just 16 days, also (by Long Realty)

And who said no one wants 7913 sf. Sure they do. 3401 E Camino A Los Vientos sold today for $1,925,000 ($243/sf) off a $2.0 list. That’s in Eleven Arches, and 7913 sf, and was originally listed in Jan 09 for $2.9. (Listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

that was Friday.

somebody wanted Cimarron

6363 E Paseo Otono, listed for $1,395,000 ($317/sf) and on the market 177 days, with no price cuts, went to contract today.
(Listed by Long Realty)

That’s a healthy contract anywhere in the Foothills, but, for Cimarron, it’s a whopper.

Going back to Jan 1999 there was 1 sale in Cimarron, in 2004, for $1.3. Everything else has sold for well under a mil.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it was a busy day for foothills real estate

as long as you were in the $2’s, $3’s, $4’s & $5’s.

Beyond that, you could have slept through it,

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz’s

you throw a party and no one shows

A house listed just 30 days ago at $1,269,000 was withdrawn from the market today. I don’t know why, it could be anything.

On the other hand it wouldn’t surprise me if it was due to a lack of activity. Few, no, showings. That was my first thought when I saw it withdrawn. I was never at this house, but the sign-in sheets at many other high-end listings tell that same story. Long stretches with very few showings. Very discouraging.

But with 118 for sale at $1.0 + and not much happening, unless you really stand out, what do you expect. Miracles.

just the numbers

Here’s a look at how we’re doing so far this year compared to the same period in years past.

Jan 1 thru March 3
# of homes sold/average sold/median sold/$/sf
# sold @ $1.0 & up

2010
74/$560,783/$449,500/$183/sf
7 @$1.0 & up

2009
66/$524,832/$450,050/$184/sf
8 @$1.0 & up

2008
75/$733,558/$530,000/$227/sf
12 @$1.0 & up

2007
82/$636,310/$515,000/$233/sf
9 @$1.0 & up

2006
121/$686,471/$535,900/$238/sf
20 @$1.0 & up

So in some ways we’ve got last year beat, just barely, but that’s about it. And we have 489 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills, of which, 118 are at $1.0 & up.

At the current rate of sales we’re looking at about 13.5 months of inventory for the overall Foothills market and just under 34 months for the mil+ market. Plenty of supply.

But, if it’s slow now, in 3 –4 months it’ll be summer. Then what.

after 50 years a new owner

Custom built in 1960 and owned ever since by Dr & Mrs Don B. Campbell 4920 N Camino Real is about to trade hands.

Listed for sale, for the first time ever, on Feb 12th, this gem of a
one-owner home on Camino Real went to contract yesterday.
List price $699,000 ($257/sf) by Prudential Foothills Real Estate.

for more, see> take a trip down memory lane

a quick sale in pc

1872 E Quiet Canyon Dr, in Pima Canyon, sold today for $935,000 ($269/sf) off a $1,050,000 list in just 40 days - original list was $1.2.

I showed Quiet Canyon in the first day or two that it was listed and, asked for feedback from the listing agent, offered that it would have a much better chance of selling were it closer to $1.0 than $1.2.

No doubt others had a similar opinion, because very soon it was at $1.050 and in contract 2 weeks later.

Price it right, sell it fast, move on.

There is a Cliff May designed house somewhere in Tucson. Does anyone know if it is located here in the Foothills?

That’s from a reader responding to my post take a trip down memory lane

If you know where it is, we’d love to hear. Thanks,

Cliff May, the father of California ranch house

let’s blame it on the weather

Lowest February home sales in the Tucson Foothills since 1995

28 single family homes sold this February
43 sold in Feb 09
30 in Feb 08
36 in 07
59 in 06
76 in 05
49 in 04
65 in 03
39 in 02
52 in 01
56 in 00
57 in 99
54 in 98
53 in 97
42 in 96 
21 in 95

And to top it off we’re up to 492 for sale - 
which, at 28/month, works out to 17.5 month supply.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

one for the gipper

It’s been a very spotty season for Cat 10,
19 for sale and just 2 sales in the last 3 months, one at $890,000 and one at $995,000. Not that that’s too shabby, but they went for $158 & $168/sf + one in contract at $217/sf.

Alarmingly low $/sf prices and no match for the 19 for sale @ an average $314/sf.

Reversing that spiral, 4510 N Placita Camaleon sold today for $850,000 or $274/sf. A cash sale. And maybe a good thing it was.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home