The Catalina Foothills

house in Cimarron sells for $1,250,000

When 6363 E Paseo Otono went to contract last month,
I wrote, somebody wanted Cimarron and said;
That’s a healthy contract anywhere in the Foothills, but for Cimarron it’s a whopper.

now it’s gone, for $1,250,000 ($284/sf) (listed by Long Realty)

third one’s the charm

5366 E Gleneagles Dr in Skyline CC started out with agent #1 in Feb 08 at $1,750,000. And after 18 months there was still no sale 
– even though the price had been slashed to $1,595,000 - so #1 agent was out and in came #2 - who promptly re-listed the place for $1,350,000.

That relationship lasted just 6 months and now agent #3 is on board. The new price, $995,000. And it’s now also available as a rental for $3500. (listed by The Nordstrom Group, Inc)
If this doesn’t work out, I want to be agent #4.

But the plot thickens; the listing description says,
Owner has just acquired this property by foreclosure and is offering it at a break even price. He doesn't even mind holding it either.. it's listed for rent or sale, whatever happens first.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK, that’s interesting. Particularly since, except for one 28 day break in Oct/Nov 09 – between #’s 1 & 2 - it’s been continuously listed for sale since Feb 08, and with nary a clue of it ever being a foreclosure.
And though I hate to hang my hat on the accuracy of the online tax records, for what it’s worth, the last transfer of ownership they show was in 2003, to a Raymond & Karen Schneider. No relation.

another spec home gone bad

It all started in 2004 when a builder/investor bought 6500 N St Andrews Dr as teardown for $480,000. At that time it was a 1967 built, masonry constructed 3200 sf house on the 7th fairway at Skyline Country Club,
that looked like this

and this,

But they quickly tore that down and put this up - a new 4200 sf frame stucco place that looks like this,

and this,

So before you could say Home Depot, another spec home was born
in Skyline CC – ground zero for teardowns in the Foothills.

But they listed it in 2006 for the very un-Home Depot like price of $2,100,000. And after countless price cuts, dragged out over nearly 4 years, it left the market last month, still unsold, at $1,300,000 as a short sale.

And if you dragged your feet on this one, fear not, it’s back today, at what should be a very attractive price - but who can say anymore - of $949,900 ($229/sf) as a foreclosure. And it’s still on the 7th fairway at Skyline.

see it here> 6500 N St Andrews Dr  (no pictures in the listing as of this writing) (Listed by Bidegain Realty, Inc)

PS- Just yesterday I mentioned a spec home in Pima Canyon that sold for $2.0M. So it can happen, but these days there are fewer and fewer winners in the high-end spec home game.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

Pima Canyon spec sells for $2M

7755 N Ancient Indian Dr, a spec home first listed in November 08 for $2,795,000 sold today for $2.0 ($354/sf) off a $2,250,000 list price.
(Listed by Long Realty) (link expires on 5/29/10)

Congrats to all!

That makes 5 homes sold in PC this year + there’s 1 in contract and 18 still for sale.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

nothing yet

April’s almost gone and not one million $$+ home has gone to contract this month in the Catalina Foothills. Not one, and that’s with 115 for sale.

And time’s running out. It’s just 3 days ‘til May and May is usually the last hurrah. Though this year we’ve yet to have a first hurrah, so we’ll see. But no doubt, it’s gonna get ugly.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

in La Paloma

Contracts for lower to lower-mid priced homes in La Paloma are moving along very nicely. Since April 1st 6 homes, priced $275,000 to $674,000, have gone to contract in La P.

And since Jan 1st, 14 homes have sold – $265,000 to $700,000 -then 1 at $1,100,000. And interesting, all 14 sold in March and April, with not 1 single sale in Jan or Feb.

And there were no sales in the estates section of La Paloma –
where there are 4 for sale priced $810,000 to $2,495,000 – and where just 2 homes sold in 2009. But one was a biggie at $3,250,000.

Many of the homes that have gone to contract and sold in La Paloma are destined to be 2nd or 3rd homes. Vacation homes. So it’s nice to see that someone still has the bucks for a substantial discretionary purchase.

Shopping for a home in La Paloma, click> La Paloma and see them all.
There are currently 32 for sale, $250,000 - $2,495,000.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

supersize me

3900 N Camino Blanco dropped another $36,000 today, bringing it in at under a mil - now $994,800 ($101/sf). Camino Blanco is a monster of a spec home – a 9776 sf spec, complete with indoor pool, that’s alongside River Rd and is also a foreclosure. What a combo.
(Listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

In the good old days – in the summer of 07 - they were asking $3,400,000.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

a dying breed

After 3 + years and $795,000 off its original list price,
5910 N Mina Vista finally sold. It went for $1,000,000 ($193/sf) as a short sale. (Listed by Long Realty)

Mina Vista was a spec house built on a teardown lot that had been occupied for 45 years by this 1700 sf adobe. 

until this went up in its place, ↓ a nice improvement  

along with the new guest house, which stands where the original
house stood ↓ and is about the same size


And as I mentioned once before, I thought this was a decent house, and unlike many other specs it’s on a decent lot, so I’m surprised it took this long - (it’s been listed for $1,160,000 since last June).

The 2 things that did bother me were the utility poles/wires out back – which I’m sure killed the deal for half the buyers - and the small covered patio – which probably killed it for the other half.  Oh, and it had the kind of mountain views you could enjoy as long as you stood in just the right spot. Not for $1,795,000.

Mina Vista was one of the last of the first wave of boom-time spec homes to sell. And many of them were built on s-crap lots here and there throughout the foothills and, not coincidentally, many of them ended up in short sale or foreclosure.

Interestingly, the second wave of spec homes are bigger, more expensive and selling even less well than the first wave.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

still waiting

- not 1 home priced at a million $$ or more has gone to contract yet in April

The last contract on a mil+ home was on 3/29. And that contract
(on Sumo Octavo), like the contracts on La Paloma Dr and Placita Arista, only occurred after the sellers finally capitulated,
after years of holding out for a price that no one was willing to pay.

And March didn’t break any sales records either for contracts on mil+ homes. Including Sumo Octavo, there were just 4 contracts, 1 of which - 5910 N Mina Vista – a spec, had also been for sale for eons and reduced over $600k before a contract appeared.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

quarterly home sales in the Tucson Foothills

What with all the news we’ve been hearing lately of increasing home sales and a recovering real estate market I thought it worthwhile to have a look at how the market has actually fared here in the Tucson Foothills over the last year or so. That’s actually fared, vs the hype.

So from the 1st quarter of 09 thru 1st of 2010, quarterly home sales - broken down by price range – for the Tucson Foothills.
(single family homes)

quarter	# sold $0 - $599	# sold $600 - $999	# sold $1.0m & up	Totals
1st 09	76	21	10	107
2nd 09	95	17	7	119
3rd 09	121	33	17	171
4th 09	91	30	4	125
1st 10	98	26	12	136
Totals	481	127	50	658

Notice how sales in every price range surged in the 3rd qrtr – the dead of summer no less – and have yet to return to those levels. Mysterious.

But if we ignore that 3rd quarter spike, home sales in the Foothills are up 27% for 1st quarter 2010 vs 2009. Great. One would hope so.

What about prices.
1st 09 – 107 homes sold at $525,097 average/$445,000 median

1st 10 – 136 homes sold at $563,284 average/$446,500 median

That puts the average price up 7% and the median up barely a smidge. eh.

So some improvement, but a long way to go before we break out the hats and horns. And the high-end, forget it, it continues to sink into ever deeper doo-doo.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

a knockdown in Skyline CC

on what looks to be a spectacular lot, high up near the top of Skyline with wide open views of the entire Tucson Valley

1.075 acres/with a 1972 built 2624 sf house/3 Beds/3 Baths/
asking $699,000.

There’s not much demand for lots these days, but lots like this are extremely rare. So you never know.

A few years ago, Skyline, with it’s ample supply of older homes on good lots, was the knock down capital of the foothills.
And it may not come back with the same wild abandon, but I’m pretty sure that demand for fabulous lots with great views is not going out of style.

more info, more pictures > 6951 N Saint Andrews Dr
(Listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

4 years trying & another million $$ sale

In La Paloma - 6301 N Placita Arista - on the market since March 2006, when it started out at $2,395,000 and slowly worked its way down to $1.1, sold today for $1.1 ($171/sf). (Listed by Long Realty)
A very nice deal for the buyer anyway.

If that sounds familiar, I wrote practically the same eulogy the other day for a house on La Paloma Dr (no relation to this La Paloma, the CC) >  what a waste  & Ditto!

And I’ve mentioned Placita Arista here before too> Finally!

PS – and get this, Placita Arista will go down in the books as having sold for 100% of its list price. Is that funny, or what.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

in the foothills today, 4/21/10

4210 N Saranac Dr went to contract from an $849,000 ($191/sf) list price in just 7 days.  This is a unique property in that it’s the only licensed bed and breakfast in the foothills. (Listed by Long Realty) (I know it well, my wife tried talking me into buying it the last time it was for sale)

Per last years listing, (when they were asking $1,079,000)
CHARMING MEDITERRANEAN RESORT CAN BE A PERSONAL RESIDENCE OR BED AND BREAKFAST NOW BEING OPERATED AS A B&B, ONLY ONE IN THE FOOTHILLS. MAIN HOUSE HAS 3 BR PLUS DEN,GUEST HOUSE HAS 3 BR'S & A GREAT ROOM.

This time round they played down the B&B aspect.
Charming mediterranean home on over 2.1 acres w/a 3 bedroom guest house. Main house has 3 bedrooms, plus den …

Makes sense, how many people are looking to buy a B&B vs those looking for a home sweet home. In any case it worked.

If I remember correctly, main house on the right guest on left.

PS- It last sold in 2005 for $875,000, and was prior to that sale and has been since then, operated as a B&B.

Casa-Luna Bed and Breakfast
www.casa-luna.com
4210 North Saranac Drive
Tucson, AZ 85718
(520) 577-4943

Next

6156 N Ventana View Pl went to contract at $749,000 ($230/sf) list. That’s at the Ridge at Ventana Canyon, just down the road apiece from Ventana CC. It was listed for 123 days and no sale. Then re-listed about a month ago, with a different agent at a different company and bingo. It’s history. (by Long Realty)

And 5640 N Placita Pardal, listed at $799,900 ($184/sf), in Shadow Hills also found a buyer today. First listed last November for $899,000, Placita Pardal is - depending on the contract price - at the higher end of recent Shadow Hills deals. (Listed by Long Realty)

There are 16 for sale in SH, 3 under contract and 5 sold in the last 6 months. The 16 average $522,206, the 3 under contract $587,967, and the 5 sold $546,900.
PS- the highest sale in the last 6 months was $626,500.

+

7828 N Ancient Indian Dr, in Pima Cyn, dropped 48 thou today - from $2,647,000 to $2,599,000. Interesting, it is, how Ancient Indian held tight at $3,295,000 from Jan 09 thru Jan 2010. And then, in the last 3 months, in 6 small but regular cuts, has dropped $696,000 to $2,599,000. (Listed by Long Realty)

I’d have gone for a bigger splash and done 2 cuts - $350 thou apiece - something that, at least, might make a buyer take notice.  
But that’s easy to say since I’m not the listing agent.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

14 listed, 1 sold, 0 under contract

That’s the latest score for the mil+ market here in the foothills, since April 1st -  leaving us with 116 for sale.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to see all 116

the other kind of spec home

4905 E Mission Hill Dr was a 1969 built old clunker in Skyline CC, that hadn’t had a thing done to it, yet sold in Feb 2005 for $640,000.

The new owners then did an extensive and very nice renovation –
top to bottom new kitchen, new baths, travertine floors and more,
all through the house, 
 

And a little more than a year later, in April 06, at the tail end, but still, things were still roaring along, they put it on the market for $1,390,000. Then they dropped it to $1,275,000, then $1,175,000 and by then the window was closing.

Four years later and it’s still for sale and was reduced today to $739,000 ($219/sf). And it’s still in Skyline CC and still has great mountain views.

Just imagine how differently things would have gone had it been reasonably priced in 06.

I mentioned Mission Hill last September on the occasion of a prior price cut > aren’t you glad you waited on this one

more info, more pictures> 4905 E Mission Hill Dr
(Listed by Long Realty)

(it is NOT a short sale or foreclosure)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

today (Monday, April 19, 2010)

6020 N Desert Moon Ct expired today after 535 days on the market, most recently at $995,000, and was promptly relisted at $995,000($259/sf) (Listed by Long Realty)

1600 E Placita Pluma - that’s in Shadow Hills - on the market 145 days, raised its price 25 thou today - $425 to $450. lots a luck.
(Listed by RE/MAX Excalibur)

7707 N Ancient Indian Dr, a very late to the party Pima Canyon spec home (built 2010) - dropped its price $100 thou, $1,995 > $1,895 ($340/sf). Just 95 days on the market, the old indian started out at $2,250. (Listed by Long Realty)

getting down to business in Cat 10, 
4341 N Placita Camaleon dropped $500k this morning – $2,490,000 to $1,990,000 - settling in at ($302/sf).

That’s for newer (2007 built) masonry construction/5 Beds/7.5 Baths (when you gotta go …/pool-spa/2.2 acres in C-10.
(Listed by Tierra Antigua)

And what a windfall – 5741 N Moccasin Tr listed at $999,900 ($232/sf), went to contract today after just 59 days on the market.
(Listed by long Realty) 

Why a windfall. Well, unless I’m mistaken, there’s been nothing in that neck a the woods, in that price range, that’s sold in a long time.
So Bravo!

And last but not least is 2430 E Placita Sin Lujuria in Sin Vacas.

Re-listed today, (and why it hasn’t sold I haven’t a clue)
it’s 1983 built - but almost completely remodeled in the last few years - 2608 sf/3 Beds/4 Baths/masonry construction/.82 acres, high up in Sin Vacas/$599,000 ($230/sf). And sweet as can be.  
If this sounds like what you’re looking for, have a look.
(yes, it is listed by Long Realty)

the pulse of the market in foothills today

23 homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills since
April 1st.

and 20 of them are huddled in the $129,000 to $599,000 range,
then 1 at $659,900
1 at $674,000
and 1 at $899,000

That’s the pulse of the market. It is what buyers are buying right now in the Tucson Foothills. And conspicuous by their absence 
are the 129 homes for sale above $899,000, that buyers are having nothing to do with.

But it ain’t over ‘til the fat lady sings, right, and we’ve still got 12 days to go in April. Aha,

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

a price cut you can sink your teeth into

The owners of 4525 N Hacienda Del Sol Rd, listed just 9 days ago for $885,000, today dropped the price to $698,000, shedding $187 thou in one swing. (Listed by Long Realty)

This is a 1960 built house on a 4+ acre hilltop lot off Hacienda del Sol.

3085 sf/4 Beds/2.5 Baths/masonry built/mission tile roof/north–south orientation/pool/ + horse facilities/and did I mention 4+ acres/

and views too

more info, more pictures > 4525 N Hacienda Del Sol Rd

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

foothills real estate this week

For the week there were 115 real estate happenings, that is, new listings, price changes, etc. So hang on to your hats as we review,
in tedious detail, everything that’s happened in Tucson Foothills real estate since Monday. Off we go,

33 new listings from $169,900 to $2,190,000
-19 from $0 to $599k – 9 out of 10 of these are actual new listings, replacements for the many homes selling in this price range.
- 7 from $659 to $995, also mostly actual new listings
- and 7 from $1.0 up – but 6 of them are re-listed old listings with all but 1 on the market for more than a year.

6 homes - priced $325,000 to $840,000 - are back on the market for various reasons
- deals fell thru, listings expired or were temporarily withdrawn and
  re-listed and who knows what else

4 had price increases, yes, they’re now asking more $$$
-$275 to $325, $449,000 to $449,900,
  $539 to $559, $650 to $675.
And go figure, but 3 of them have been on the market for 92, 144 and 172 days.

and for price cuts, our most popular category, there were 39 
- 28 in the $0 to $599k range. yeah!
-  8 at $600 to $999
- and though it’s barely limping along, just 3 for the $mil + range

8 home owners got lucky, found buyers & went to contract
- 6 of the lucky ones were priced $129k to $599, then 1 at $699 and the high priced winner at $899.

7 progressed from active contingent to pending
- 6 priced $301 to $599 and 1 at $1,195,000

10 homes traded hands this week
-9 of them priced $296 to $585 and 1 at $1.1

2 listings expired after many moons on the market
- at $599,000 and at $2,290,000

and 6 were withdrawn, also after many moons
- @ $389, $415, $875, $1.475, $1.495, $1.750

Even with one eye closed it is crystal clear that $0 - $599 is where the action is, while everything else is just everything else.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

change for change’s sake?

I’ve been absent from the blog today because, unfortunately, I’ve spent more time with the conversion to our new MLS system than I ever imagined I would. More time trying to learn the new system –
it is complex - and more time working with a handful of other agents trying to identify ‘features’ that we think need to be changed.

By the time we’re done we’ll have spent countless hours changing the new system to make it look more like the one we already have, and like.

If you’re an agent in Tucson we’d love to hear what you have to say about your experience with the flex system and your opinions regarding the conversion to flex.

thank you,

I first wrote about the flex conversion here, which started a little firestorm > regarding the new flex mls system that we are moving to  -ps- be sure to check out the comments

back to square 1

18 months on the market, 2300 E Corte Ingles finally went to contract on Jan 5th and, after spending 3+ months in escrow, fell out today. Ouch! (Listed by Long Realty) and, by now, a short sale too.

And PS- it came back on at $639,000 but minutes later was dropped to $565,000($173/sf).

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

what a waste

4150 E La Paloma Dr was on the market  4+ years, had 3 different agents, umpteen price cuts, was priced as high as $2,550,000 and, after all that, sold today for $1,100,000 ($178/sf) off a $1.5 list.

Now imagine how much money, time and grief they’d have saved themselves, if, in early 2006 when they first listed it, and the market was still roaring along, they’d listed it for a price that it could actually sell for.

Not a bad deal for the buyer though.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

another one hits the skids

6326 N Ventana View Pl sold in June 04 for $640,000.

Three years later they listed it for $1,195,000, yes - one million, one hundred and ninety five thousand dollars. And that didn’t fly.  
And now, almost 3 years and many price cuts later it finally went to contract today at $699,000 as a short sale.
(listed by Long Realty)

No comment.

cha-ching, $2,857,000 in savings in just 14 days

and that’s without lifting a finger. 

Between the houses that were re-listed at a lower price and those that had outright price cuts, there were $2,857,000 in price reductions on homes listed at 1 million or more - in the Tucson Foothills. (10 re-listed + 8 price cuts)

Now that’s easy money, and as the temperature rises I wouldn’t be surprised to see even more of the same.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

how to get buyers attention

Drop your price $1,050,000 in one fell swoop.

That’s what they did over at 7827 N Ancient Indian.
Ancient Indian is in Pima Canyon, and it’s not a spec, it’s an
owner-occupied house that was first listed in October 09 for $3,750,000 and dropped to $3,495,000 then to $2,950,000.

That listing expired 10 days ago and it’s back today, unfortunately as a short sale, for $1,900,000 ($283/sf). (Listed by Long Realty)

It was custom built in 2006 for the current owners –
6702 sf/5 Beds/6 Baths/1+ acre/pool-spa/6 car

Details, details
18 others for sale in PC  - average list $2,442,967
5 sold in the last 6 months – average sold $1,097,600
1 in contract at $2,250,000

This is another chink in the crumbling wall that is the high-end market. And another hurdle for sellers hoping to get their price anytime soon. 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your million $$ home

back on the market

After 2 months in escrow 5106 N Avenida De Castilla is back on the market today. This is a short sale in Hacienda del Sol estates that started out many moons ago at $1,199,000 and is available today for $559,000 or $154/sf. (listed by Long Realty)

This is the house of many steps which I’ve mentioned here before -
truth in advertising.

And, aside from the newsworthyness, I mention it here today because someone expressed interest in it when it went to contract back in February. But I don’t remember who it was. So, if you’re out there, there it is.

Also back on the market is 1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl, a once new spec home in Pima Canyon that’s been kicking around since 2006. Back then it was priced as high at $2.8 and today can be yours for $2.190 ($490/sf)

It expired the other day, so this is just another re-list – with another $100 thou cut thrown in for good measure. (listed by Avalar Advantage)

What else of note has transpired recently,

2087 E Desert Garden Dr, in Pima Cyn - on the market since Feb 08  when it was asking $3.3 – expired this Feb at $2,599,000 and came back the other day at $2,499,000 ($432/sf) Listed by Long Realty

6321 N Via Acacia, in La Paloma – on & off the market since 2006 when it was looking for $1,599,000 – expired on Friday at $1,049,000 and came back on Saturday at $1,049,000 ($249/sf). (listed by Philip G. Jameson)

4490 N CAMINO SUMO, that’s in Cat 10, started out in Oct 08 at $1,450,000, expired the other day at $1,295,000 and came back on at $1,187,000 ($310) Listed by Long Realty

And 2162 E Sentry Ridge Ct , another Pima Cyn spec house - on the market since Oct 08 when it was asking $2,950,000 – has dropped another $100 thou to $2,295,000 ($502/sf) (Listed by Long Realty)

And last, and least, 4912 N Avenida De Castilla, in Hacienda del Sol Estates - on the market 321 days - cut it’s price a full $19,000, from $1,058,000 to $1,039,000 ($272/sf). (Listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

It’s getting very late in the game and I wonder, does anyone really believe that these are the kind of price cuts that will finally bring high-end buyers out of hiding.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

91 homes in contract in the foothills today

And that is a lot of homes in contract.
Look at it this way;
if all 91 were to close in the next 30 days, and then it happened again next month and the month after, we’d run out of homes to sell in less than 6 months. But, but

69 of those 91 are priced from $0 to $599,999

and just 10 from $600,000 to $999,999

and just 12 from $1.0 and up

So the bottom of the market continues to kick butt, while the rest of it continues to get the  $%&#$5# kicked out it.

for you number crunchers; 503 homes for sale in the foothills today,
-the bottom third represents 53% of the homes for sale
and 76% of those in contract

-the middle represents 24% of the homes for sale
and 11% of those in contract

-the top third represents 23% of the homes for sale
and 13% of the those in contract

So to make matters worse, according to these latest numbers, the middle is now doing as poorly as the top.

Open Sunday 1 – 4

Given that this Sunday is National Open House Sunday – bet you didn’t know that – but it is, as declared by the NAR, be prepared for even more than the usual crush of open houses here in the Foothills.

And though they make no mention of it, I’m sure it’s not coincidental, the NY Times has an article on the rituals of the open house as practiced in NYC.

Read all about it> Looking, or Just Looking

it’s off again at a million+

This morning I saw that 2 listings priced at over a million had expired. And not recalling much action lately in the million $$ arena – though it seems to come in fits and and starts - I thought I’d take a look and see what’s happened so far this month.

This month being April, it is, or should be, arguably the busiest month of the year for deal making at the upper end.

Be that as it may, since April 1st we’ve had 4 new listings, 4 price reductions, 3 expired, including the 2 mentioned above, 2 withdrawn (neither of which has returned so, maybe, hopefully, they’re calling it quits) 1 sold on April 1st, but not a single new contract for a million $$+ home.

**the 3rd home that expired, did so on April 1st and has yet to return. And though anything’s possible, it would be very unusual to keep your home off the market at this time of year if you planned to try selling again anytime soon. This one was priced near $3 million and is in Pima Canyon, where there are 17 others for sale** 

coming soon to a mansion near you

Foreclosures Hit Rich and Famous

From WSJ.com

The rich and famous now have something in common with hundreds of thousands of middle and lower-class Americans: The bank is about to take their homes.

Houses with loans of $5 million or more will likely see a sharp rise in foreclosures this year, according to a RealtyTrac study for The Wall Street Journal.

Wealthy people have the means to stretch out the distress process, sometimes for years.

"It's very, very difficult for these people to believe they've had such a severe reversal of fortune," says Maggie Navarro, a real-estate agent in Pasadena, Calif.

Marc Carpenter, a San Diego-based foreclosure specialist, adds that while it's much harder for potential buyers to get loans, there are also fewer buyers who can pay for top-dollar properties. "The upper end is definitely a lagging indicator," he says.
______________________________________________________________

Not quite so rich or famous, here in the Foothills we have only 4 homes for sale at $5 million or more. But we do have our share of what I call vulnerable high-end homes.

111 for sale from $1.0 to $4.950. And about 25 of them are spec homes and many others are 2nd homes that are no longer wanted or affordable. And almost all of them, plus dozens of others, have been sitting vacant for 1, 2 or more years while waiting for a buyer. How much longer can that go on.

Read all about it> Foreclosures Hit Rich and Famous

(if you’re unable to read the entire article on WSJ from this link, that is, you get a ‘must subscribe’ message' - just Google the title –Foreclosures Hit Rich and Famous, and the link from Google will enable you to read the entire article)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your million $$ home

knowing when to fold ‘em

5855 E Placita De La Zuerencia, an Alta Vista spec home built in 2008, was first listed in January 08 for $1,800,000. (already they’d missed the boat) But then, inexplicably, by August, when it was 110 in the shade and everything was crumbling, they’d cut the price a whole 5 grand to $1,795,000 - and then held tight there until the listing expired in Dec 09 – do I hear, make your bed and lie in it

Well, between then and now, reality must’ve finally dawned really hard. Because after holding out for all that time, it was
re-listed today with a new agent for half a million less, yes 500 big ones, to $1,295,000 ($280/sf). And it’s not a foreclosure or a short sale. It’s just another spec that hasn’t quite lived up to
ex-spec-tations. And maybe an opportunity, if it’s your cup of tea.

See it here> De La Zuerencia
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

foreclosure 123

In July 2006 someone paid $850,000 for 6000 E Territory.
Then in August 2007 someone else came along and paid $1,000,000 for it.

And who knows why, but three months later the new owners that just paid $1,000,000 for it put it up for sale for $1,300,000.
$1,300,000, $300,000 in 3 months.

But, details-details, by then it was November 07, the market had cooled big-time, and jumbo mortgages had all but disappeared. 
Which was the beginning of the end for the high-end market. But they hung on anyway at $1,300,000 – hey, you never know - and for a year never lowered the price.

But then reality must have dawned pretty hard, because they listed it as as short sale for $699,00 in Feb 09. But too late, no-go.

And today it can be yours for $605,000 ($151/sf) as a foreclosure. 
see it here> 6000 E Territory Dr

see them here, all 139 homes that have sold in the Tucson Foothills since Jan 1, 2010

I’m experimenting with the new mls software, flexmls, and will hopefully come up with things that are interesting and useful for all of us.

This link > http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rgp5asgtraa,12,1 <  
will take you to an interactive page that shows all the homes that have sold in the Tucson Foothills since Jan 1, 2010 - (as homes sell, they are added to the total, so you may see more than 139) 

And this is a more comprehensive view of sold properties, with more features and information, than has been available up to now.
See how you like it, and please let me know.  
(however, as before, the link will expire in 30 days – on 5/8/10)

When the page opens,
Click List from the upper right-hand tabs and, by gollly, you’ll see a list with limited information on each of the 139 homes.

Click Detail and the list will collapse to make room for a full page of info on each home - select the homes from the collapsed list.
Click Pictures to see pictures of the selected home.

**in the Detail view the list price is in the upper right corner of the page and the sold price is down bottom. Why not put them next to each other for quick & easy comparison – and cut out all the useless scrolling.

Ok, give it a whirl.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

way high up in the foothills

3718 E Rose Peak Pl, listed 28 days ago as a foreclosure for $941,900, dropped to $895,000($195/sf) today. (listed by Realty Executives Southern Arizona)

At it’s peak in 2006, Rose Peak was appraised and listed for $2.3.
I know, because I listed it a couple of years later for $1.8, then $1.495, then $1.2. Then, I’m sorry to say, foreclosure struck.

If a home doesn’t sell the lenders seem to have a set schedule for reducing the price. So if you’re watching one of these foreclosures, the trick is to not jump the gun, but to know when it’s time to make your offer and not let it slip through your fingers. It’s tricky.

data

I’m using the new flexmls system that we’re migrating to and finding that, though it is complex, it has some nifty features.
The one I’m most drawn to, because it’s so useful for this blog, is all the different ways to look at and present data.

The following is a look at sales volume & average prices, in the Tucson Foothills, for Jan, Feb and March.

 

Interesting data here; 
First, the big difference between the list price of existing listings and of new listings really catches my eye. Plus the sizeable drop each month in the average list price of new listings is encouraging. And yet, the average prices of the homes that are selling are still holding their own, or better. The big question - and considered in the context of other positive economic news – are we, here in the Foothills, seeing the beginning of the makings of a market on the mend.

	avg list/ existing listings	avg list/New listings	avg list/ sold listings	avg sold/ sold listings	SP/LP Ratio
Jan	$959,221	$859,576	$580,913	$535,001	93.5
Feb	$967,616	$812,049	$636,126	$586,262	92.6
Mar	$955,975	$775,072	$605,379	$571,923	94.7

Just in case the table headings are not clear;
- avg list/existing listings = the average list price of homes listed prior to Jan 1, 2010, and still on the market,
- avg list/New listings = the average list price of homes listed between Jan 1 & March 31, 2010.
- avg list/ sold listings = the average list price of homes that sold
- avg sold/sold listings = the average sold price of homes that sold Jan 1 – Mar 31, 20110
- SP/LP Ratio = the average % of Sold Price to the List Price, of homes that sold.

ee thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

sold out, but not really

You’re probably familiar with Paloma Ridge, the A.F. Sterling development that sits on the north side of Sunrise near Hacienda del Sol Rd – the one with the 2 story homes that sit on what once was the prettiest stretch of Sunrise Dr. Yeah, that one.

The sign out front says, All Sold Out, Thank You Tucson
or something to that effect. But this afternoon a new listing for a new house in Paloma Ridge, being sold by A.F. Sterling, popped into the MLS.
This brand new 3 Bedroom plus den AF Sterling Home is GORGEOUS!!! This home looks out at La Paloma Golf Course and has fantastic Mountain views from the Family Room and Master Bedroom Deck. The gourmet kitchen is stunning …

So if you’ve been kicking yourself for missing out – stop kicking, and get over to - 3911 E Long Dr

Built 2010/3091 sf/3 Beds/4 Baths/$622,731 ($201/sf)

more road kill on the street of broken dreams

This has got to be the 4th or 5th spec home built off of Hacienda del Sol Rd that’s gone to short sale or foreclosure and sold for a fraction of its original asking price.

This one, at 3179  E Corte De Andalucia, started life a few years ago stating; 
Seller will accept or counter offers $1,495,000-$1,695,000. Brand new Mediterranean on a cul-de-sac in gated Hacienda Del Sol Estates…

That was in January 07. Two years later, in January 09, and after all that had gone on, they were still asking $1,299,900. So is it any wonder that it ended up a short sale in January 2010. That’s it down there on the left with another bit of road kill just two houses north of it. 

 
Corte De Andalucia sold today for $620,000 ($128/sf) off a $695,000 list price. Built 2007/4828 sf/4 Beds/4Baths/1.2 acres/1 story/3 car/ no pool or spa/a side of the road spec. The listing notes that there were no appliances and some fixtures were missing.

I wonder if this was bought by someone who plans to live in it, or it’s another speculator whose come along looking to tootsie it up and
re-sell it. I think the latter – just a hunch - but we’ll see. 

‘aren’t you glad you waited’ #337

6920 N Solaz Primero;

-listed for $1,175,000 in November 07
-expired at $985,000 in Jan 09
-Re-listed, with new agent & new price, $880,000, on 2/10/10
-reduced $40 thou a few days ago
-under contract today at $840,000 list ($219/sf)

That’s 2 in a row for Tim Harris, the listing agent from Long Realty. Last week, another one of his listings, 3771 E Sumo Octavo in Cat 10, went to contract under similar circumstances.

Cheers!

guess what

The wobbly housing market is showing a rare sign of strength: pending home sales were up significantly in February, a report released Monday said, suggesting that Americans took advantage of a tax credit for home buyers.

Sales rose 8.2 percent in February, theNational Association of Realtors said. Analysts had expected sales to stay flat.

So says the NYTimes.com
Sharp Rise in Home Sales in February

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

things are starting to move in Ventana

I noticed that 6950 E Quiet Desert Ln, in Ventana Country Club Estates, went to contract today.  And seeing that made me realize that there’s finally been some action in Ventana recently. (listed at $599,000 $220/sf, by long realty)

So I checked our trusty MLS and, Voila,’ here’s what I found;

There are 8 homes in contract in Ventana, and there haven’t been 8 homes in contract in there in many moons. But the real bright spot is that 5 of them went to contract in late March and 2 in the first few days of April. So things are picking up now.

Plus, 4 sold in the last 2 months, 2 in Feb and 2 in March.

Prior to that it was deadsville in Ventana – 3 sales from Oct 1 thru Jan 31. And not real biggies - $530, $562, $570.

So we’ll see.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

VIEWS! VIEWS! VIEWS!

if you got ‘em flaunt ‘em.

Panoramic mountain & city views from every window & the two patios/ boasting the finest city and mountain views that Tucson has to offer/Incredible vistas all the way to Mexico! Sunsets, MTN & City lights views from this fabulous …/w/amazing views encompassing all the sparkling city lights and the mountains/… unobstructed 180 degree ''See to Mexico'' views/Dazzling views of Ventana Canyon rock outcroppings greet you …/… w/ superlative city & mountain views/
… high above the city w/SEE FOREVER VIEWS

We know all about views here in the Tucson Foothills. They can make or break a sale and add immensely to the value of property.

And according to an article on WSJ.com the first priority of wealthy 2nd home and vacation home buyers is the view.
… the fact that “view” ranked above climate, reputation, price and size for vacation homes bears considering. What the wealthy want from a vacation home is to get away from it all. A giant window overlooking the waves or sunset or white-capped mountain tops can help wipe away a lot of stress.

Read all about it>
Rich Just Want a Room (or 20) with a View

By the way, in my experience, everyone wants a view, not just the wealthy.

(if you’re unable to read the entire article on WSJ from this link, that is, you get a ‘must subscribe’ message' - just Google the title – Rich Just Want … and the link from Google will enable you to read the entire article)

regarding the new flex mls system that we are moving to

The Tucson Association of Realtors® has decided that we are to get a new MLS system. That is, we’re getting an entirely new operating system with a completely new interface for the main tool that we all use everyday to do our jobs.

And I’d like to get some feedback from Realtors® on what you think of the new flex mls system. Please, speak up, this is important.

Click Comments down below and tell it like it is. Thank you.

PS- I don’t like it and haven’t found anything about it to recommend it. Yet I’ve found quite a few things about it that don’t work and that I don’t like. Unfortunately, I don’t have any choice and neither do you. But maybe I’m missing something. I hope so.

So let’s hear from you Realtors® out there who, like it or not, will soon be using this new system come May 3rd.

more signs of life

from NYTimes.com

SAND is not a good foundation for a house, and it certainly wasn’t a good foundation for a housing boom. But now home prices are starting to recover in some so-called sand states.

During the housing boom early in the last decade, the strongest markets were in the states that could offer sand and sun to lure prospective purchasers, and many came to accept that the aging of the baby boomers meant that such retirement havens would prosper forever.

But when the boom turned to bust, buyers found that what went up the most was likely to come down the fastest.

Now, there are signs of life in real estate markets in two of the sand states, California and Arizona. Florida and Nevada, though, continue to suffer.

Read all about it>
Signs of Life in Sand-State Real Estate

trying to get a handle on sales at $1.0 +

While this years 1st qtr sales at a million+ were nothing to shout about, they were at least better than the last qtr of 09 and also an improvement from, though it’s not saying much, qtr 1 of 09.
Have a look.
(these are 1st qtr sales for each year)

Year	# Sold	Avg sold $	Med Sold $	$/sf	$$ Value
2010	12	$1,505,000	$1,447,500	$288	$18,060,000
2009	10	$1,189,000	$1,142,500	$250	$11,895,000
2008	17	$1,820,294	$1,700,000	$355	$30,945,000
2007	18	$1,588,561	$1,487,500	$336	$28,594,100
2006	40	$1,528,675	$1,262,500	$327	$61,147,000
2005	23	$1,528,913	$1,295,000	$302	$35,165,000

Looking at the numbers it sure looks like sales and prices bottomed out in that 1st qtr of 09. But let’s see what happened during the rest of the year -

2nd quarter 09
7 sold/average $1,373,429/median $1,150,000/@ $310/sf

3rd quarter 09
17 sold/average  $1,538,529/median $1,375,000/@ $297/sf
(this is the jump in sales last summer that had us (me) faked out that the good times were here again)

and then BAM! 4th quarter 09 sales smacked us back to reality,
4 sold/average $1,777,500/median $1,655,000/@ $312/sf
the prices are so high because 2 of the 4 sold were real biggies @ $2.7 & $2.185, a fluke.

So from 4 sales we’re back up to 12 in the 1st qtr of 2010.
There’s no pattern or trend here, one month it’s up, the next month it’s down, so who knows. But then, we currently have 13 in escrow at $1.0+, with 8 of them recent contracts- having just gone to escrow in March. A very positive sign.

But then there’s the elephant in the room, the 114 mil+ homes for sale, which, based on sales since Jan 1, leaves a 28 month supply. And that’s a huge hurdle that will take a helluva lot more than 4 or 5 sales/month to get over.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

@ $0 - $600k

it’s a different market,

4820 N Paseo Del Tupo, listed for $575,000, sold for $601,850
in 7 days. Do I hear bidding war? (listed by Premier Homes & Land)

____________________________________________________________________

Same deal with 6981 N Ozona Dr. It was listed as a short sale for $450,000 and sold 3 days later for $510,000 ($137/sf). Honest.

____________________________________________________

But 4849 N Ventana Ridge Pl was range priced - Seller will accept or counter offers between $599,000 - $625,000 – and when push came to shove they accepted $590,000.  (listed by Long Realty)

_____________________________________________________________________

Just 7 days on the market and listed at $550,000 ($226/sf) and 
5385 N Via Velazquez is already under contract. That’s in Sunrise Mtn View Estates. (listed by Long Realty)

____________________________________________________

And then there’s 5998 N Campo Abierto. It sold for $525 in Oct 07 and was listed today for $559,000, which works out to a rather pricey $306/sf. (Listed by Long Realty)

Pricey! Well yeah, this is at Village 5 At the Villages Of La Paloma, where there are 6 others for sale and just 1 has sold since January 2009. And that 1 sold for $600k, or just $194/sf. And of the 6 for sale the highest $/sf is $239, then $228, then $194. (listed by Long Realty)
So $306/sf is pricey. No.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

to cheap to pass up

After dropping 42% - 1,149,000 to $659,900 - 4911 N Avenida De Castilla went to contract today. It’s a side-of-the-road foreclosure off Hacienda del Sol Rd. (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

2004 built/technically, in Hacienda del Sol estates/4610 sf/4 Beds/4 Baths/no pool/2 story/frame stucco/by the side of the road/$143/sf @ list

1st quarter home sales for the Tucson Foothills

We started off the year with 38 homes sold in January and just 30 sold in February. A disaster of a year in the making. But then along came March with 67 sales to pull us out of our nose dive.

And at 67, March sales look very good and, as I mentioned the other day, stack up very well against the last few years.

So here are the sales numbers for the 1st quarter of this year & years past;

2010
135 sold;
avg $564,717/median $449,000/@ $184/sf
97 sold @ $0 - $599/26 @ $600 - $999/12 @ $1.0 +

2009
107 sold;
avg $525,097/median $445,000/@ $183/sf
76 sold @ $0 - $599/21 @ $600 - $999/10 @ $1.0 +

2008
123 sold;
avg $709,725/median $535,000/@ $229/sf
74 sold @ $0 - $599/32 @ $600 - $999/17 @ $1.0 +

2007
138 sold;
avg $680,184/median $539,750/@ $234/sf
77 sold @ $0 - $599/43 @ $600 - $999/18 @ $1.0 +

2006
194 sold;
avg $740,570/median  $575,000/@ $246/sf
100 sold @ $0 - $599/54 @ $600 - $999/40 @ $1.0 +

There’s not getting around it though, the improvement in sales is due largely to an increase in sales at the low end. While the rest of the market is, at best, still struggling.

In 2006 $0 - $600 represented 51% of all sales. In 2007 it grew to 56%. In 08 it was 60%, in 09 71% and 72% this year. Conversely, the the market share for high end sales has shrunk from 20% in 06 to 9.3% in 09 & 8.8% so far this year.

So in addition to lower prices overall, more low-end and fewer
high-end sales have of course contributed substantially to lower average and median sold prices.

it’s lovelier the 2nd time around

In La Paloma, listed for $479,000 - 6226  N Via Paloma Rosa was on the market for about a year before it finally went to contract this past January. And then, unfortunately, after sitting in escrow for four weeks, it fell out of contract and was back on the market again. Don’t you hate that.

But here’s the good news. Less than three weeks after going back on the market it went under contract again. And today it went from Active Contingent to Pending – so it’s almost a done deal. Almost.

At least it didn’t take another year to find another buyer. And that’s a good sign.

SOLD

Listed at $1,495,000, 6652 N Avenida De Posada sold yesterday for $1,420,000 ($319/sf) after 98 days on the market. (listed by Long Realty)

Built 2006/1.38 acres/4445 sf/4 Beds/5 Baths/
1 story/pool-spa/7 car garage/Built w/steel frame & Rastra block

I know the builder, Dick Rivas, and I know his work. He builds the real thing; solid, quality construction, high-end materials and craftsmanship, and he doesn’t cut corners. And he’s a car nut too. Congratulations to Dick and Annette.

-that was lifted from my post of December 9, when De Posada went to contract -Foothills Contemporary with 7 car garage goes to contract) – for pictures

And that puts March sales at 66, now with 5 of them at $1.0 +.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

on Camino Real

Between the dismal state of the real estate market and being a side of the road spec home on Camino Real, I’d say that 5109 N Camino Real sold quite well. (listed by Long Realty)

Listed just 128 days ago for $1,195,000 and reduced to $1,075,000 it sold for $999,000 ($238/sf).

2009 built/4194 sf/5 Beds/3.5 Baths/1 acre/frame stucco/no pool no spa/but a 5 car garage

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home