The Catalina Foothills

home prices still falling in the Tucson foothills

Yes, hard to believe, but true. Home prices in the Tucson Foothills are down from last year. Earlier this year, let’s say in the 1st qtr, they were up from last year. But not anymore.
Have a look;

2009 average/median sold prices - 535,242/$432,500

1st Qtr 2010 average/median sold prices – $560,779/$441,500
2nd Qtr 2010 average/median sold prices – $486,184/$408,750
half year average/median - $521,027/$416,000

That pulls the average down 2.6%, the median down 3.8%, from 09.

That’s the way it is.

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someone really likes this house

2474 E Calle Los Altos went to contract this afternoon.
Calle Los Altos is in Catalina Foothills Estates 9, on the north side of Skyline Drive just west of La Encantada. It’s listed at $1,129,500 ($256/sf) and has been on the market since last August when it started out at $1,295,000.

It’s the one down there by Skyline Dr. 
This is the 4th, and probably the last,  million $$ + listing to go to contract in July.

 
Enough said.

see it here> 2474 E Calle Los Altos Tucson, AZ 85718

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somebody got a really good deal

Up in Sin Vacas, 2430 E Placita Sin Lujuria sold today for $520,000 ($199/sf) off a $599,000 list price – reduced from $699,000 last October.

The sellers bought it in November 2005 and paid list price, $597,000. Then they ripped out the old kitchen and put in a nice new one, with new everything top to bottom, and redid some floors and spruced up the backyard and re plastered the pool, etc. And after all that they got $520,000. I’m surprised they didn’t do better, even in this market, it’s a very nice house on a terrific lot in Sin Vacas, for $520, wow.

But Sin Lujuria means without lust. So maybe that has something to do with it.

see it here> 2430 E Placita Sin Lujuria Tucson, AZ 85718

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possible glitches in home searches

If you are using my web site – www.thefoothillsToday.com – to search for a home, you may encounter errors or missing listings.
We know that searching Ventana CC is returning fewer homes than are actually available and that Fairfield, and possibly others, may be in the same boat.

A person who was using my site alerted me to this issue. Thank you. And the tech crew has now been trying to unravel it since yesterday morning. So please stand by.

does Range Pricing work

In case you are not familiar with it, range pricing is when a house is offered for sale within a set price range, say, $240,000 to $275,000.
And a range priced listing is usually accompanied by language that explains the terms of the range; ‘SELLER WILL ACCEPT OR COUNTER OFFERS BETWEEN $240,000 AND $275,000’. So, in other words, making it clear that the seller WILL NOT accept or counter offers that are NOT within the range.

So the goal of range pricing is for the seller to control the price at which offers come in and, ultimately, the price at which the home sells for. And, as a secondary benefit, to avoid those pesky low-ball offers.

If that’s the case, then range pricing is failing miserably. I’ve looked at range pricing a few times in the last couple of years, and posted the results here, and each time range pricing did not live up to expectations. Not nearly. And this time is no different.

15 Range Priced homes, priced from $235,900 to $1,495,000, have sold since Jan 1. But just 4 of them sold within the price range, with 2 of them selling at the very bottom of the range. The remainder all sold below, and many well below, the bottom of the range. And these results are completely in line with those from previous years.

Nevertheless, range pricing continues to be in fashion. Currently there are 28 range priced homes for sale in the foothills, from $247,000 to $3,284,000.

For range pricing to have any chance of working in the current market, the bottom of the range needs to be at a price that buyers will literally jump at. But that’s not happening. Range priced homes are, just like non-range priced homes, overpriced. And guess what, range pricing is not some kind of silver bullet that’ll somehow overcome overpricing.

But I think range pricing can work to a sellers advantage in a HOT market. By openly setting a price range for bidding, in a HOT market, I can see how range pricing could easily encourage multiple offers. But in slow buyers market, with lots to choose from and most of it going nowhere fast, I don’t think so. I think, on the contrary, it discourages offers. Setting a range reinforces that not only is the home overpriced, but that the seller is even more unreasonable in that they’re trying to hold buyers to this ridiculous price range.

But buyers have learned to ignore the range and offer what they want. And sellers, smartly, are playing along. In other words, the market is working, if slowly.

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The End

It’s been a long run for 3141 E Crest Shadows Drive, but now it’s over.

Crest Shadows started out in March 07 at $1,425,000 and when that didn’t work they raised the price to $1,495,000. aha, they did. 
Then over the next 2+ years – in dribs & drabs - they got it down to  $1,225,000. But still no one cared.

So it was relisted with a new agent at a nice new price, $999,000, in January 2010 and closed today at $887,500, ($190/sf) 

And that my friends, is in Cobblestone. la-di-da

only at the right price, only at the ….

see it here> Crest Shadows has new owners

unfinished business

Every time I passed by I’d notice the house at 2850 E Via Alcalde – and wonder what’s up with that. You can’t help noticing it, because it sits unfinished and wrapped in thick yellow insulation behind a chain link fence off Via Alcalde. A street that is otherwise very very old foothills.

But construction stopped some time ago, and now, finally, it’s been listed for sale. So, for one reason or another, whoever was building it has called it quits. And just looking at it, I know this was not done as a spec. Someone had this custom built. And it is not a short sale or foreclosure either.

It looks like they spent a boatload of money prepping the site and building it up so the house would sit higher and have better city views. And it’s all steel frame construction – you never see that in a spec – and with a massive mission tile roof to boot. I’d guess that it’s about 2/3 to 3/4 finished, so the hard part is done and, pretty much, a buyer just has to choose all the finishes and fixtures. The fun part. Oh, and pay for it. + hardscape, landscape, pool if you wish, etc

It is, on 2.3 acres/4,355 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths/steel frame construction/3 car/ in Catalina Foothills Estates/asking $985,000 ($226/sf)/It is being sold unfinished

And the listing describes it as;
THE ''BUBBLE HOUSE! DESIGNED BY ROB ROBINETTE WITH THE UTMOST AND LATEST TECHNOLOGY IN TOXIC FREE CONSTRUCTION.

And besides, I have it on good authority that the neighbors will be very appreciative and friendly and nice towards whoever comes along and buys it and finishes it. So that finally, that ugly chain link fence can come down.

The listing > 2850 E Via Alcalde Tucson, AZ 85718

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do you believe in coincidence

Two homes on Avenida De Castilla, 5106 N and 4941 N Avenida De Castilla, both in Hacienda del Sol estates and both on the market for 6 months or more, both went to contract today.

I wish them both good luck.

See them here> on Avenida De Castilla

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some action today in Skyline CC

Earlier today 6640 N Los Leones Drive went to contract listed at $1,350,0000 and now 5000 E Oakmont Drive popped up as a new listing for $1,590,000. cha-ching

see it here > 5000 E Oakmont Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br 70202)

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Listed

4017 E Playa De Coronado for $1,195,000 ($331/sf).
That’s at the Summit at Finger Rock.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens since homes sales have not fared very well this year at The Summit. There are two other homes for sale in there, a smaller one at the same price, $1,195,000, but ($370/sf). And another much larger one at $1,749,000, also ($370/sf).

Ok, that’s the lineup and it’s a fairly tight one. But the only home that sold in there this year was a foreclosure that went for list price of $574,900 ($206/sf). I mentioned it when it was listed and again when it went to contract> the good ones don’t last

See all three for sale at the Summit at Finger Rock, Tucson, AZ 85718

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the luck of the Irish in Skyline CC

Listed this past St. Patty’s Day at $1,350,000 ($286/sf),
6640 N Los Leones Drive went to contract today.

It last sold for $819,000 in April 2004. And I think, but I’m not sure and, oddly, the listing doesn’t say, that its had a fairly substantial renovation since then. What else could it be, it didn’t appreciate $500K just like that.

See for yourself> 6640 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br 70202)

Skyline was overdue for a hit. The last sale for over a million in there was January 29th. I’m assuming, of course, that this went for over a million.  ha-ha

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THE CASE OF THE MISSING INVENTORY

I’ve remarked lately that our Tucson Foothills inventory of high-end homes for sale is down in the mid 90’s from a high of 140 to 150 a couple a years ago. And while, Yeah!, that’s a good thing, I also knew something didn’t add up. Because the numbers weren’t down in the 90’s due to our skimpy sales and more high-end homes getting listed all the time. No way. And I had a hunch but I hadn’t crunched the numbers, so I didn’t know exactly what was what. Until now.

Of the 122 high-end listings in the Tucson Foothills that have either expired or been withdrawn since January 1st,  I count 41 of them, listed from $1,049,000 to $8,250,000, that have not returned to the market. (hmmm, mid 90’s + 41, that adds up)

That’s 41 high-end homes that didn’t sell and are now taking a breather, and maybe trying to figure out their next move.
I also know of at least a few in that group that are working their way thru the foreclosure process.

And my guess is that come this fall, little by little they’ll start drifting back on the market. So there will be more to choose from, with at least a few under-market priced foreclosures sprinkled here and there, and, unless we see a surge in demand, more downward pressure on prices. 

Like I’ve said, over and over, it ain’t over.

The fine print: some of those 122 listings, actually quite a few, are for homes that expired or were withdrawn 2 or more times – some 3 or 4 times.  So the 122 does not represent 122 different homes.
But the 41 does represent 41 different homes.

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deferring the pain

I referred a client of mine who wanted a condo to Walter Klein, an agent who knows the condo scene inside and out. I don’t, so I don’t do them.

Anyway, he was telling me about a condo development where there’s one for sale for $189,000 which my client likes quite a bit. But the three others that sold in there this year - with the same sq footage, same floor plan, etc, etc, condos are infinitely comparable – sold for between $119,000 and $134,000. So he approached the listing agent to say, hey look, I want to write an offer but it’s going to be in line with the 3 that sold, and not with your list price, because …

The listing agent told him to forget about it. No way, the owner paid $$XXX and he’s not gonna sell it for less.

we’ll see.

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to buyers, it doesn’t matter what you paid for it

At best, they are only interested in paying what it’s worth in today’s market.

Take 4522 E Don Jose Drive. It sold in 2005 for $581,500 off a $575,000 list price. And after 5 years the owners listed it this January for $799,000, then $699,000, and nothing happened.

So then it was foreclosed and listed 11 days ago at $499,900 and already it’s under contract.

more details + pictures > 4522 E Don Jose Drive Tucson, AZ 85718

If you overpaid, or if the market has gone down since you bought, or both, buyers are not about to make up for your unfortunate decisions or bad timing. Would you, if the tables were turned.

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what now?

The listing for 5969 N Camino Preciado was canceled today at $1,299,000. And it’s been on and off the market since January 2008, when it was first listed for $1,799,000.

Tough stuff, but the real sticky wicket is that the sellers paid $1,600,000 for it in 2003.

It’s a nice house, a John Kline, so it’s beautifully built.  
But as this picture hints at, it’s at the bottom of a long and fairly steep driveway.
And no doubt that’s the issue. And there’s nothing you can do about it except offer it at a lower price until someone bites.
Or wait, ha-ha, who knows how long, until the market recovers.
This is in La Paloma Estates.

see it here> 5969 N Camino Preciado Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIO 4722)

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luxe Pima Canyon spec, now under $300/sf

7828 N Ancient Indian Drive had a $300,000 price cut today, bringing it in at $2,199,000, or $298/sf - significantly cheaper/pound than any of it’s luxe competitors in PC. And the old Indian is now down a million+ from the $3,295,000 it started at in Jan 09.

see it here> 7828 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

The PC scene - 18 homes for sale 
5 priced from $1,050,000 to $1,299,000, averaging $320/sf. 
13 priced $1,895,000 to $4,950,000 at an average of $485/sf –not including Ancient Indian at $298.

6 homes sold in the last 6 months;
3 for $875,000 to $1,075,000 @ average $254/sf
3 for $1,800,000 to $2,000,000 @ average $342/sf

With 18 homes for sale, and slow sales, it was bound to happen.
And it’s just another example of how utterly blind are those who say, ‘oh, my sellers, they can afford to wait’. Oh yeah. 

When 2112 E Sentry Ridge Ct went to contract a few weeks ago - at a much reduced and I thought bargain price - I said, at that price it’s a thorn in the side of other PC sellers, such a deal  
Ouch! Here’s another.

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which is it, sold “AS IS” or “lovingly cared for”

Have you ever noticed how in the listing info, homes for sale are usually described in the most glowing terms. In terms that might lead one to believe that they are all perfect homes in perfect locations under perfectly sunny skies where everyone is perfectly happy and they are, the Best Priced…, the Best Value … with the Best Views …, and The Most Stunning Home in – fill in the blank.
Yes, I too can exaggerate.

Anyway, those descriptions might lead you to believe all those wonderful things, except that we’ve all learned to take that stuff with a grain of salt or, at the very least, with a wait and see, I’ll be the judge of that, attitude.  Hey, it’s advertising, caveat emptor.

But sometimes it’s more than just an amusing or annoying or exaggerated description. Because sometimes the description is so far off from reality that not only doesn’t it do the seller any good, it actually does them harm. While also wasting the time of a lot of buyers and their agents.

How. Take the most blatant, obvious example. A fixer-upper.

99 times out of 100, people are either in the market for a fixer-upper or they are not. There are fixer-upper people and there is everyone else.  And everyone else wouldn’t touch a fixer-upper with a ten foot pole. So if you’re trying to sell one, you want to do everything you  can to get the fixer-upper people in to see it. And don’t fret over everyone else. So please, do everyone a good turn and advertise your fixer-upper, or whatever it is you’re advertising, for what it really is.

What brought on this rant. Well, A couple of things. One, the other day I noticed a listing that really annoyed me. In one place it said;
… It is so lovingly cared-for and is … blah blah

And just a little further down the page, it also said;
Seller has never resided on the property and no SPDS are available. Home to be sold ''AS IS''.
Uh, which is it.

And I also walked into a fixer-upper that was advertised as anything but. 

Plus my recurring itch, that contrary opinions, that are neither positive nor glowing - about homes for sale, are not welcome.
And this, in the good ole USA, in the 21st century.

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the last 18 months in the Tucson Foothills,

Since January 1st 2009, Tucson Foothills home sales are up, sort of, while prices are see-sawing and days on market are down a skosh.

  1st half 2009
233 homes sold
Average sold - $518,463/Median - $425,000
Average days on market – 169

  2nd half 2009
299 homes sold
Average sold - $548,316/Median - $445,000
Average days on market – 160

  1st half 2010
304 homes sold
Average sold - $521,027/Median - $416,000
Average days on market – 140

So while there was a very nice, and very comforting, improvement in sales and prices during the 2nd half of 09 – a much needed recovery from the awful 1st half – this year, that recovery has stalled.

Not only have average and median prices dropped measurably from 2nd half 09, but, home sales have gone nowhere. And that’s without considering that Jan – June is (supposed to be) our busy season in the foothills – so sales should be way up.  Yes, we sold 5 more units in this half than last. And in context, that’s a big step backwards.

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say it isn’t so

Well, I’m afraid to say that it definitely is so. Have a look at the sold prices of homes in the Tucson Foothills, in 2006 vs 2010, and see for yourself.

I’ve done a simple comparison of prices then and prices now. And  I’ve broken it down on a community level so there’s no question that we’re comparing apples to apples. So the only difference is between the market then and the market now.

For each of the communities I’ve pulled all the homes sold from
Jan 1 to July 20 2006 and from Jan 1 to July 20, 2010. And then listed the # homes sold and the average and median sold prices.
See for yourself,

Community	Year	# sold	Avg sold $$	Med sold $$
Pima Canyon	2006	10	$2,045,000	$2,050,000
Pima Canyon	2010	6	$1,430,833	$1,437,500
			-30%	-30%
Cat 10	2006	7	$1,150,714	$1,085,000
Cat 10	2010	7	$842,171	$850,000
			-26.7%	-21.6
Ventana CC	2006	22	$1,177,968	$1,036,250
Ventana CC	2010	15	$882,467	$650,000
			-25%	-37%
Hacienda del Sol	2006	2	$1,550,000	$1,550,000
Hacienda del Sol	2010	3	$657,833	$757,500
			-57.5%	51%
Alta Vista	2006	13	$1,080,731	$1,075,000
Alta Vista	2010	5	$736,300	$757,500
			-31.8%	-29.5%
Skyline CC	2006	7	$1,255,714	$1,195,000
Skyline CC	2010	5	$898,000	$725,000
			-28.5%	-39%

This little presentation is partially inspired by recent conversations I’ve had with a couple of listing agents about the price of their listings vs the offers I presented. When the offer is way less than the list price, often, but not always, the listing agent will tag it as a low-ball offer. And they may therefore fail to take it seriously and may also persuade the owner/seller that it’s a low-ball offer, that shouldn’t be taken seriously. But what some of them fail, or refuse, to recognize is that sold prices (the only prices that count) are down 25% to 30% or more from the peak. And it ain’t over yet. And if buyers are going to  buy in this market, they are only going to do so at the right price. Simple as that.

So, often, the problem is not that it’s a low-ball offer. No. 
The problem is that it’s a reasonable offer for the market we’re in, but it’s going up against a house that is priced for a market that is long gone. And time will tell. But many of these homes have been on the market 18 months or more already. And they still don’t get it, so what hope is there.

Those numbers up there are the facts, and they remain the facts whether you are selling or buying. That is the market. Ignore it at your peril or use it to your advantage.

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The latest casualty

That would be 6500 N Campbell Avenue.
It sold for $922,000 in October 2006 and sold again today for $560,000.

But it didn’t go down without a fight. You see they listed it for $990,000 in September 2008. Yesiree, who cares that the entire US economy is collapsing – on the eve of destruction, they listed it for more than they paid in October 2006 (just months past the tippy–top of the market).

And now, two years and many price cuts later, Voila $560,000!    
And a short sale too.

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"The drop-off in activity has surpassed expectations.''

says Douglas Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.

From WSJ.com
Housing Market Stumbles

The housing market, whose collapse pulled the economy into recession in late 2007, is stalling again.

In major markets across the country, home sales are deteriorating, inventories of unsold homes are piling up and builders are scaling back construction plans. The expiration of a federal home-buyers tax credit at the end of April is weighing on the market.

Read all about it > Housing Market Stumbles

ain’t that the truth,

Chris Fountain, a Connecticut Realtor and blogger extraordinaire,
talks about why sellers should listen and learn from “unvarnished” comments about their property rather than just getting pissed.

And gee, doesn’t that make sense.

Readers’ comments

sold for list price

6920 N Solaz Primero sold today for list price –  
$840,000 list, $840,000 sold ($218/sf). Really.

On the market since February it had just one price cut, from $880,000. And these days, that’s hitting the bulls-eye.

It had been listed before, with different agents and at a much higher price, but that expired in January 09. Ancient history. 

And you can count on one hand the homes that have sold for list price in the last year or so. And when they do it’s usually right out of the box, within a very short time of being listed. So not to steal it’s thunder, but I wouldn’t have bet this one would either. 

check it out > 6920 N Solaz Primero Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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now priced in the high $600’s

These two that recently had price cuts caught my eye,

First up is the very charming Joesler near the top of Camino Real, at 5402 N Camino Real. It’s now $697,000 ($261/sf), down from $799 when first listed in March. Worth a look if you’re looking for a
2672 sf – 4 Bed – 3 Bath Joesler in that price range.

PS, it’s also the only Joesler for sale in that price range.

And in a very different package and locale is 5870 N Camino Del Conde. Listed in May for $775,000, it’s now $699,000 ($219/sf).
Built 1981/3189 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths. A very tidy, nicely updated house with a really pretty yard and covered patio.

I picked these two because I like them, and I’ve seen them and shown them recently. But my buyers, for one reason or another, have taken a pass on them. Nevertheless, I think they stand out from the high $6’s crowd. And also, when asked, I suggested to the listing agents that they’d do better with them priced under $700, and here they are. So let’s see if I’m right.

But it’s often hard to say in this market. This house, at 5080 N Calle Bujia finally sold the other day. It started in March 07 at $879, then dropped to $799, then $749, and nothing. And after being off the market for a year, it returned this March at $649, and sold for $625 the other day.

But when I showed it last year, it was also off the market but available for $749, I thought it was priced to go. And my buyers did too. But it didn’t.

(all Listed by Long Realty)

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equal time

In the post down below I listed the 2 homes priced at a million $$ or more that have gone to contract since June 1st.

But that’s just the story at a million or more. Because during that same time a very healthy 57 homes priced at under a million $$, from $149,000 to $999,000, have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills.
see them here> 57 to contract

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The short list. Million $$ contracts in the Tucson Foothills since June 1st.

Let’s see, we have 2112 E Sentry Ridge Court. A splendid Pima Canyon contemporary that is also a foreclosure. It went to contract on July 7th listed at $1,999,000 ($317/sf).

And 4705 N Via De La Granja, a very nice, and nicely priced, Tucsany listed at $1,585,000 ($258/sf) in Cat 10. It was snapped up on 7/12.

And that’s it.

That is, unless you count 7582 N Secret Canyon Drive. It went to contract in June, but it fell out last week. So no, we can’t count that.

And too bad too. Because 7582 N Secret Canyon Drive is not just any old million $$ house. It’s the $13,500,000 house in the Canyons that, to everyone’s amazement, went to contract last month. Imagine trying to find another buyer at $13 mil or thereabouts. And I thought I had a tough week,

(all of the above homes are listed by Long Realty)

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quick to contract

6400 N Pinnacle Ridge, in Paloma Canyon, went to contract the other day after just 60 days listed at $859,000 ($243/sf)

When it was first listed I previewed it for some clients and decided it wouldn’t work for them. And at the time nothing had been moving in Paloma Canyon, so when the listing agent called to ask my opinion of the price, I said something about ‘you’ll have to get lucky to find a buyer…’ Well they found a buyer, and pretty quickly and broke the stalemate in Paloma Cyn too. 

And on the big plus side, Paloma Canyon (aka Pinnacle Ridge) is one of just a few really kid friendly communities in the foothills. You know, where you see kids playing outside and riding bikes.
And while Shadow Hills is the grand daddy in that department, Paloma Cyn is newer and gated and more central foothills located. But also more expensive and with homes on much smaller lots than Shadow Hills.

see it here> 6400 N Pinnacle Ridge Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty 472203)

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OLP/LP/SP , huh

About 10 days ago I did a piece where I was trying to show the relationship between the sale price and the list price (at time of sale), vs the sale price and the original list price, of homes sold.
at a million and up, how close to list price are homes (really) selling for

But I think the way I did it was confusing. So I’m going to take another shot at it here. And I also gave the impression that showing the ratio of sale price to the original list price was important, while showing the ratio of sale price to the list price-at time of sale -was not. And that’s not true. They’re both important.

And if there’s an issue, it’s that the MLS only reports the sale price to list price at time of sale. Which presents only a partial, and distorted, picture of the what’s happening out there in the market.

The other thing I hope to emphasize and make clear is that, for the most part, homes in the Million$ price range are not selling for 30 to 40% or more off their list price – that is, the list price at time of sale. They’re not. But, often, they are selling for 30 to 40%, or more, off their original list price.

Here’s how it’s working. Some of them are, over time, dropping their list prices 15 to 30% and then accepting offers in the range of 8 to 20% off of that reduced list price. This is based on my experience, but also on the numbers from every million $$ sale from Jan to June this year. So making a $650k offer on a $1,000,000 listing will, in most cases, go nowhere. Even if the house is only worth $650K. Because often the seller is not ready to face that music just yet.

OK, now here’s the cheat sheet for OLP/LP/SP and %’s there of,

OLP = original list price. (before price cuts and/or re-listings)
LP = list price at time of sale (after price cuts and/or re-listings)
SP = sold price

SP/LP= the % of sale price to list price (the % reported by the MLS)
SP/OLP = the % of sale price to Original list price (the % NOT reported by the MLS)

And away we go, sold from Jan 1 to June 30 for a million or more,

6050 N Desert Sun Court
OLP - $1,198,000
LP - $1,198,000 
SP - $1,000,000 
SP/LP = 83% 
SP/OLP = 83%

6440 N Desert Wind Circle
OLP - $1,295,000
LP - $1,195,000
SP - $1,025,000
SP/LP = 85.7%
SP/OLP =79%

5910 N Mina Vista
OLP - $1,795,000 
LP - $1,160,000
SP -$1,000,000  
SP/LP =  86%
SP/OLP = 55.7%

3550 E Entrada Del Sol
OLP - $1,450,000
LP - $1,295,000
SP - $1,030,000
SP/LP = 79.5%
SP/OLP = 71%

4200 N Painted Quail Place
OLP - $1,950,000
LP - $1,095,000
SP - $1,050,000
SP/LP = 95.9%
SP/OLP = 53.8%

1887 E Desert Garden Drive
OLP - $1,495,000
LP -$1,250,000
SP -$1,075,000
SP/LP = 86%
SP/OLP = 71.9%

7441 N Moon Spirit Lane
OLP - $1,350,000
LP - $1,350,000
SP - $1,100,000
SP/LP = 81.4%
SP/OLP = 81.4%

4150 E La Paloma Dr
OLP -$2,450,000
LP -$1,500,000
SP - $1,100,000
SP/LP = 73.3%
SP/OLP = 44.9%

6301 N Placita Arista
OLP -$2,395,000
LP - $1,100,000
SP - $1,100,000
SP/LP = 100% 
SP/OLP = 45.9%
(yes this was reported in the MLS as selling for 100% of list price, with no reference to the original list price. Is that funny or what)

2436 E PLACITA DE LA VICTORIA
OLP - $1,800,000
LP - $1,385,000
SP - $1,150,000
SP/LP = 83%
SP/OLP = 63.8%

3771 E Sumo Octavo
OLP - $2,195,000
LP - $1,350,000
SP - $1,200,000
SP/LP = 88.8%
SP/OLP = 54.6%

5280 E Mission Hill Drive
OLP - $2,900,000
LP - $1,500,000
SP - $1,220,000
SP/LP = 81%
SP/OLP = 42%

6363 E Paseo Otono
OLP -$1,395,000
LP -$1,395,000
SP- $1,250,000
SP/LP = 89.6%
SP/OLP= 89.6%

7021 N Mission Hill Lane
OLP-$1,495,000
LP -$1,495,000
SP -$1,395,000
SP/LP = 93.3%
SP/OLP = 93.3%

6652 N Avenida De Posada
OLP -$1,895,000
LP- $1,495,000
SP - $1,420,000
SP/LP = 94.9%
SP/OLP = 74.9%

6460 N Thimble Pass
OLP -$1,997,500
LP - $1,599,000
SP - $1,475,000
SP/LP = 92%
SP/OLP = 73.8%

6954 E Gate Ridge Place
OLP - $2,150,000
LP- $1,795,000
SP- $1,700,000
SP/LP = 94.7%
SP/OLP = 79%

6609 N Eagle Ridge Drive
OLP -$1,999,999
LP -$1,749,000
SP -$1,700,000
SP/LP = 97%
SP/OLP = 85%

3601 E Lone Hill Place
OLP -$2,350,000
LP - $2,200,000
SP - $1,800,000
SP/LP = 81.8%
SP/OLP = 76.6%

2192 E Desert Garden Drive
OLP -$2,499,000
LP- $1,995,000
SP - $1,800,000
SP/LP = 90%
SP/OLP = 72%

1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Place
OLP-$3,200,000
LP -$1,999,999
SP -$1,900,000
SP/LP = 95%
SP/OLP = 59.3%

3401 E Camino A Los Vientos
OLP -$2,900,000
LP-$2,000,000
SP -$1,925,000
SP/LP = 96%
SP/OLP = 66.3%

7755 N Ancient Indian Drive
OLP -$2,795,000
LP -$2,250,000
SP - $2,000,000
SP/LP = 88.8%
SP/OLP = 71.5%

6755 N Hole In The Wall Way
OLP -$3,200,000
LP - $2,495,000
SP - $2,200,000
SP/LP = 88%
SP/OLP = 68.7%

After seeing the numbers, does anyone really believe that showing only the % of SP/LP presents a reasonable and accurate picture of the market. A picture that Mr & Ms Homebuyer should rely on when making their home purchase. Anyone.

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a contract

2745 E Camino Juan Paisano was 2128 sf and looked like this when it sold for $280,000 in 2002, with 6 acres in the heart of the old Foothills. Imagine!

And two years later it looked like this

and this,

and was now 3106 sf, but with just 2.4 acres, when it sold for $655,000 in October 04.

And those owners added a very nice pool & spa

and put a gate across the driveway, and maybe a few other enhancements, and listed it for $1,190,000, on July 15, 2008. 
How does that saying go, the one about timing.

Anyway, apparently no one but them liked it at that price because it sat there without a price cut until it expired this past January.

Then something transformative happened, because three weeks ago they re-listed it for $899,000. And BAM! before you could say
Camino Juan Paisano, it was in contract .
see it here>  2745 E Camino Juan Paisano Tucson, AZ 85718

I knew this house well and liked the lot and the old foothills location. And I’d shown it when it was the little adobe with 6 acres and also later on when it was enlarged and renovated. And it was all good stuff, except that that was the beginning of the end for larger lots in the Foothills. From that point on, anything that had any land that could be carved up, was carved up.

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if you need another reason to quit pretending and cut to the bottom line, here are two

Optimism Fades, as Do Stocks
From WSJ.com

Wealthy Reduce Buying in a Blow to the Recovery
From NYTimes.com

The economic recovery has been helped in large part by the spending of the most affluent. Now, even the rich appear to be tightening their belts.

“One of the reasons that the recovery has lost momentum is that high-end consumers have become more jittery and more cautious,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.

another foreclosure rears its ugly head

This one in Sin Vacas. It was listed today for $624,800 ($154/sf),
and, get this, last sold in 2005 for $1,100,000 ($272/sf).
Such a deal, eh.

When it sold in 05 it was listed in the mls but had also been turned over to an auction house and, if I’m not mistaken, it sold before the auction took place. It was listed for $750,000 and, yes those were the days, sold for $1.1.

Anyway, my memory of the house is vague, but I do recall that the backyard and the backyard of the house next door felt as if they were joined like siamese twins. You have to see it in person.

Check it out > 7402 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizo 478306) 

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7 months and well worth the wait

4630 E Palais Place, a short sale up in the Summit, finally sold last week. When it was listed in mid December I mentioned it here
> starting life as a short sale < and mentioned that it looked like
a deal. And sure enough, holidays and all, it went to contract in less than three weeks.

It was listed for $1,495,000 ($273/sf), which looked very good, and sold for $1,100,000 ($201/sf), which looks incredibly great.
(Listed by Long Realty)

And the house is 2007 built/5469 sf/6 Beds/4.5 Baths/Pool-Spa/
4 car/in the gated Summit, with fairly fantastic city & mountain views
Mamma Mia! that’s a spicy deal. (the lot alone went for $365k in 04)

Understandably, this is the kind of deal that has buyers salivating.
But also understand that very few like this come along, and when they do, you’ve got to be locked, loaded and ready to pounce.

See it and weep> 4630 E Palais Place Tucson, AZ 85718 
for $1,100,000,

more to choose from in Pima Canyon

In PC, 1308 E DESERT GARDEN Drive was re-listed today – with a new agent and a new price - $1,195,000, or $370/sf. The previous listing ran from January 3rd thru June 30th, for $1,280,000, or ($397/sf) – with no takers. So we’ll see.

see it here> 1308 E DESERT GARDEN Drive
(Listed by RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIO 4722)

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the buyers did well on this one

This is a very nice contemporary on 4.7 acres in Cobo Catalina Hills. And I showed it three or four times while it was listed, but, for one reason or another, none of my clients went for it.

It’s 4136 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths/with a few steps here and there/
3 car/and a very sweet 1 bedroom guest house with kitchenette

Originally listed for $1,250,000 last October, it was down to $1,000,000 at the time of sale and sold for $915,000 ($221/sf).
(Listed by Long Realty)

See it here> 7915 N Sendero De Juana Tucson, AZ 85718

I first showed it right after it was listed in October at $1,250,000.
And the agent asked what I thought of the price, so of course I told her - ‘get it down closer to $1,000,000 and you may get lucky’.
But I’m sure others had a different opinion. So it didn’t get down to $1,000,000 until mid April. But when it did, it went to contract about a month later. Fine and dandy. But I’m pretty sure they’d have done better had the price been lower from the start, or very soon after.

But sellers are usually focused on how much they want, rather than on what buyers could reasonably be expected to pay in the current market.

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nursing a short sale

2300 E Corte Ingles last sold in May 05 for $688,000 and – after a long haul – sold again today for $550,000 as a short sale.
(Listed by Long Realty)

For this go-round Corte Ingles was listed in July 08 for $825,000 as a normal, non-distress sale. And somewhere along the way, as the price was reduced and reduced again, playing catch-up to a falling market, it became a short sale. But it also went in and out of contract 3 or 4 times before this last deal finally took.

2300 E Corte Ingles

they must really like this house

the one down there backing up to the north side of Skyline Dr.

It went to contract today listed at $549,000 – that’s after 2 years on the market starting at $734,900.

Hey whatever, maybe the buyers are from LA LA land and, to them, this is peace and quiet.

we’re under 100

And I don’t mean the temperature.

For the first time in years there are fewer than 100 homes for sale priced at $1,000,000 or more in the Tucson Foothills.

Today there are 99 98 for sale.

Two years ago there were 140 to 150 homes listed for sale above $1,000,000.

See them here > 98 at a million$$ & UP
and hurry, before they’re all gone

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a solid hit for Cat 10

4705 N Via De La Granja went to contract today.
Built 1992/6,151 sf/5 Beds/6.5 Baths/Masonry construction/on a 1.6 acre classic Cat 10 lot. Listed $1,585,000 ($258/sf)

On the market since Sept 09 when it was listed for $1,895,000 – and instead of death by a thousand cuts it had one nice big juicy price cut to $1,585,000 and, BAM!, that did it.

See it here > 4705 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

And wouldn’t you know it, just this morning I called the listing agent to make an appointment to show De La Granja this afternoon. Oh well.
There are 12 other homes for sale in Cat 10- from $1,090,000 to $2,650,000 - average list price $1,603,167 @ $311/sf.
But none, at the moment & in my opinion, as well priced as this.

vs 7 sold this year, from $570,000 to $1,200,000 @ $212/sf.

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on this hot day in July

There are 48 homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. 
They are listed as Active Contingent and, as such, have most likely gone to contract recently and are now in the inspection period.

31 (64%) are priced $149,000 to $599,999

14 (29%) are $600,000 to $999,999

  3 (6%) are $1,000,000 & up

And there are another 27 homes in contract that have passed the inspection period and are listed as Pending.

25 (93%) are priced from $199,900 to $599,999

2  (7%) are $600,000 to $649,000

0  (0%) are $1,000,000 & up

And then there are the 464 homes for sale;
258 (55.6%) from $114,900 to $599,999
107 (23%) from $600,000 to $999,999
99   (21%) from $1,000,000 & up

So the bottom of the market is still selling like crazy, the middle is more or less holding its own and the top is a house of cards.

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they got off easy

The wonderful La Quinta at 5227 N Campbell Ave sold the other day.

The sellers bought it at the height of the market in March 06 for $1,682,950 and sold it for $1,600,000 ($321/sf).

I’d like to think it’s because real quality endures and rises above the rest.

See it here > 5227 N Campbell Avenue Tucson, AZ 85718

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at a million and up, how close to list price are homes (really) selling for

Let’s look at the 24 homes that sold for a million$$+ between Jan 1 and June 30.  And look at -
sold price, list price (at time of sale) & original list price – that’s SP/LP/OLP. And the % of SP/OLP, which is where it’s really at.

6050 N Desert Sun Court- SP $1,000,000/LP $1,198,000/
OLP same (SP/OLP 83%)

6440 N Desert Wind Circle-SP $1,025,000/LP $1,195,000/
OLP $1,295,000 (SP/OLP -79%)

5910 N Mina Vista- SP $1,000,000/LP $1,160,000/
OLP $1,795,000 (SP/OLP 55.7%)

3550 E Entrada Del Sol- SP $1,030,000/LP $1,295,000/
original list $1,450,000  (SP/OLP 71% )

4200 N Painted Quail Place- SP $1,050,000/LP $1,095,000/
original list $1,950,000 (SP/OLP 53.8%)

1887 E Desert Garden Drive- SP $1,075,000/LP $1,250,000/
OLP $1,495,000 (SP/OLP 71.9%)

7441 N Moon Spirit Lane- SP $1,100,000/LP $1,350,000/
OLP same (SP/OLP 81.4%)

4150 E La Paloma Dr- SP $1,100,000/LP $1,500,000/
OLP $2,450,000 (SP/OLP 44.9%)

6301 N Placita Arista- SP $1,100,000/LP $1,100,000/
OLP $2,395,000 (45.9%)

2436 E PLACITA DE LA VICTORIA- SP $1,150,000/LP $1,385,000/
OLP $1,800,000 (SP/OLP 63.8%)

3771 E Sumo Octavo- SP $1,200,000/LP $1,350,000/
OLP $2,195,000 (SP/OLP 54.6%)

5280 E Mission Hill Drive- SP $1,220,000/LP $1,500,000/
OLP $2,900,000 (SP/OLP 42%)

6363 E Paseo Otono – SP $1,250,000/LP $1,395,000/
OLP  same (SP/OLP 89.6%)

7021 N Mission Hill Lane- SP $1,395,000/$1,495,000/
OLP same (SP/OLP 93.3%)

6652 N Avenida De Posada- SP $1,420,000/LP $1,495,000/
OLP $1,895,000 (SP/OLP 74.9%)

6460 N Thimble Pass- SP $1,475,000/LP $1,599,000
OLP $1,997,500 (SP/OLP 73.8%)

6954 E Gate Ridge Place- SP $1,700,000/LP $1,795,000/
OLP $2,150,000 (SP/OLP 79%)

6609 N Eagle Ridge Drive – SP $1,700,000/LP $1,749,000/
OLP $1,999,999 (SP/OLP 85%)

3601 E Lone Hill Place- SP $1,800,000/LP $2,200,000
OLP $2,350,000 (SP/OLP 76.6%)

2192 E Desert Garden Drive- $1,800,000/LP $1,995,000/
OLP $2,499,000 (SP/OLP 72%)

1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Place- $1,900,000/LP $1,999,999/
OLP $3,200,000 (SP/OLP 59.3%)

3401 E Camino A Los Vientos- SP $1,925,000/LP $2,000,000/
OLP $2,900,000 (SP/OLP 66.3%)

7755 N Ancient Indian Drive- SP $2,000,000/LP $2,250,000
OLP $2,795,000 (SP/OLP 71.5%)

6755 N Hole In The Wall Way- SP $2,200,000/LP $2,495,000/
OLP $3,200,000 (SP/OLP 68.7%)

As a group these 24 homes sold for an average of 88.6% of LP.
That is, the list price at the time of sale - after all price reductions and re-listings. And that’s how the % of SP/LP is calculated and reported by the real estate industry.

But based on the original list price – before all the price reductions and re-listings - those 24 homes sold for just 69% of OLP. 
A figure that gives a more complete and accurate picture of how homes are selling. And a figure that is very important to buyers but is, nevertheless, ignored by the real estate industry. Well, ignored, now that homes so often sell for so much less than their original list price.

When homes were selling quickly and for over list- you didn’t have to look very far to find those numbers.

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what a difference 2 years makes

In the popular second home community on the north side of La Paloma, 6210 N PLACITA PAJARO sold today for $650,000 ($264/sf).

All fine and dandy. But two years ago, when the sellers were buyers, they paid $770,000 for it. And that was in May 08, a good two years into the bust. But pre-Lehman, but just.

see it here> 6210 N PLACITA PAJARO Tucson, AZ 85718

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… the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population

More than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent, according to data compiled for The New York Times by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.

Though it is hard to prove, the CoreLogic data suggest that many of the well-to-do are purposely dumping their financially draining properties, just as they would any sour investment.

“The rich are different: they are more ruthless,” said Sam Khater, CoreLogic’s senior economist.

Read all about it;
From The New York Times > Biggest Defaulters on Mortgages Are the Rich

And coincidentally, the word is that a foreclosure I wrote about recently is one of those strategic foreclosures. 

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such a deal

Late yesterday, 2112 E Sentry Ridge Court in Pima Canyon went to contract. Not a spec, it’s a custom built contemporary that ended up in foreclosure.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote about it here> once in a blue moon

The owners had it listed for 2+ years starting at $5.9 & ending at $3.5.  Then the bank took over. And after one month it went to contract yesterday listed at $1,999,000. Somebody did very well.
 
On the other hand, at that price it’s just another thorn in the side of the 18 homes still for sale in PC. See it here> 2112 E Sentry Ridge Court, Tucson AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

PS – for some inexplicable reason, sometime in the last couple of weeks, the sq footage was changed from 7000 sf to 6300 sf. In all of it’s previous listing life it was shown as 7000 sf. And the tax assessor has it as 7040 sf. So I’m stumped.

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Is this really a good time to get into the real estate biz in Tucson

In the last 6 months or so at least three new real estate companies – companies that did not operate here previously - have set up shop in the Tucson area.

You may have seen their signs and advertising and hoopla – HomeSmart, Keller Williams & Russ Lyon, and maybe others that I haven’t noticed, have all opened for business recently and have been recruiting aggressively.

Just wondering.

mamma mia! that’s a price cut

On this hot day in July, 7487 N Secret Canyon Drive dropped from $4,700,000 to $3,990,000.

In 2005 the sellers paid $1,452,000 for the 3.3 acre lot and then had the house built. It is 7320 sf and was completed in 2009.

That’s in the Canyons, now at $545/sf.
(listed by Long Realty)

more details, more pictures> 7487 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718

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where are the million $$ homes selling

Since the first of the year, 25 homes have sold for a million$$ or more in the Tucson Foothills -  here’s where they are and what they sold for. (just in case you’re wondering)

1 in Quail Canyon ($1.050)
1 in La Paloma ($1.1)
1 in Las Vistas Encantada ($1.149)
1 in Catalina Foothills Estates 4 ($1.0)
4 in Ventana Country Club ($1.0/$1.025/$1.7/$2.2)
4 in Pima Canyon ($1.075/$1.8/$1.9/$2.0)
2 in Catalina Foothills Estate 10 ($1.030/$1.2)
2 in Skyline Country Club ($1.220/$1.395)
1 in Ventana Overlook ($1.7)
1 in Casa Conejo Estates ($1.420)
1 in Cobblestone ($1.1)
1 in Cimarron ($1.250)
1 in Coronado Foothills Estates ($1.1)
1 in Eleven Arches ($1.925)
1 in the Enclave at Pima Canyon ($1.150)
1 in Esperero Canyon Estates ($1.475)
1 in Foothills II ($1.8)

And here are some numbers related to those 25 sales;

The average Original List price was $1,637,140
The average list price at time of sale was $1,559,800
The average sale price was $1,390,560
The average $/sf sale price was $268
The average continuous days on market was 263 days
Longest days on market, 1142, shortest 21.
1 was a short sale & 1 was a foreclosure

PS – during the same period last year, 19 sold.
       2008, 35 sold
       2007, 60 sold
       2006, 76 sold
That’s 76 homes sold for a million or more in just 6 months, or, more that 12 mil+ homes/month, in just the Tucson Foothills. No wonder everybody and their brother started slapping up million $$ homes.

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having fun with charts

The nice thing about charts is that you get this simple, graphic representation of what’s going on without having to muck about in the gory details.

Like these - the data on these charts is for residential sales (including single family, condo & townhomes) in the Tucson Foothills, 85718 zip, from June 2009 thru June 2010. And PS - I don’t usually do townhomes and condos but I can’t seem to eliminate them from these charts.

So moving along, this first chart nicely illustrates the rather large gap between the list price of homes that are selling (the green line down there in the low to mid $400’s) and the list price of homes that are still for sale (the red line up there in the mid $700’s). Net-net, it is showing what we already know. That low priced homes are selling and high priced homes are not. Well, not too many of them are anyway.

This next chart displays the average ratio of sale price to both the original list price and to the list price at the time of sale, in percentages. Generally, when you see data indicating that homes are selling for X% of list price, that x% is based on the list price at the time of sale - (that is, after God knows how long on the market and including all price reductions).
So naturally it reflects a higher percentage than it would were it based on the original list price - as shown here.

Isn’t this a blast, here’s more.

This next chart shows that, for now anyway, Days on Market are declining. And that’s a good thing. Days on the market is the time it takes to sell a home.
And these are Continuous Days on Market (CDOM). wow, no kidding,
CDOM is the number of days from the listings beginning date until it goes to contract if there were any days it was off the market (ex. temporarily withdrawn) then those days are subtracted if the property was taken off the market (but not sold) and was listed again within 30 days then the days it was previously on the market are added to CDOM. Your results may vary. Whew! Got that.

Last one and, why not, let’s end on a happy note.

This chart shows the Absorption Rate, aka, months of inventory (MOI). The Absorption Rate chart shows how long the current inventory of homes would last at the current rate of sales.
(6 months is considered a normal market)

 

And as you can see, since last June, the months of inventory has been slowly but surely going down, down, down. And it is now down to about 10 months, from 14+ months last June. That is a positive sign. And remember, you heard it here first.

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at the half year mark

Here’s what it looks like in the Tucson Foothills for single family home sales Jan 1 – June 30.

470 single family homes currently for sale
259 from $0 to $599,999
109 from $600,000 to $999,999
102 from $1,000,000 & up
average list $824,863/median $565,000 @ average of $224/sf

304 homes sold
230 sold $0 to $599,999
50 sold $600,000 to $999,999
24 sold $1,000,000 & up
average sold $519,820/median $415,000 @ average of $177/sf

Last Year - 233 homes sold during the same period
average sold $518,463/median $425,000 @ average of $184/sf

So sales are up and prices are more or less holding steady.
clap-clap. But we’ve got a ways to go to match those wonderful days of yesteryear,

4 years ago, 412 homes sold during the same period
average sold $726,097/median $580,000 @ average of $245/sf

5 years ago, 589 sold
average sold $601,361/median $502,700 @average of $205/sf

Happy 4th

going beyond list prices

The other day I did a piece called going beyond ‘the comps’, where I talked about why ‘comps’, the lists of comparable home sales, are relied on, by buyers, much less today than they were in the past.

And it occurred to me that the same is true for list prices.

There was a time, before the boom and bust, when list prices were a  reasonable guide to what a seller would accept and a buyer would, therefore, pay for a home. Today, that’s no longer the case. List prices are routinely ignored or laughed at or worse.
And, ironically, it is the would-be sellers of overpriced homes who have taught buyers to ignore list prices. 

And how did they manage that. Simple, by overpricing their homes.
And of course those overpriced homes don’t sell. That is, until they either come way down in price or, after many moons on the market, a worn out seller finally throws in the towel and grudgingly accepts a
so-called low ball offer. Or eventually, mr. lender takes them back.  And then they routinely sell for 20 – 40%, or more, less than their original list price. And that’s been happening day in and day out for a few years now. And so buyers have learned, as they should, to ignore list prices.

And from that simple lesson and other adventures in researching and buying a home, buyers are, at best, skeptical and leery.

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