The Catalina Foothills

SOLD, before you can say Tucson Multiple Listing Service

6830 N Solaz Cuarto turned up as a new listing today at 1:32 pm, and four minutes later it showed up as sold.

Solaz Cuarto is a 1978 La Quinta, simply described in the listing as,  “A La Quinta Classic perfectly maintained and updated “

Obviously this deal was made on the QT, then it went thru escrow and closed, and was only then entered into the MLS.

I’ve extolled the virtues of La Quintas often on these pages and so it’s nice to see that others admire them enough to snap them up.  It sold for $1,050,000 ($232/sf).

6830 N Solaz Cuarto Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

trying to beat the market

In Shadow Hills - 5771 N Camino De La Sombra last sold for $630,000 in May 2007.

One year later, in June 08, it was listed for $799,000. Ho-Ho-Ho!
Today, still unsold after many price cuts, it’s available for $564,500.
(Listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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not everyone is pinching pennies

7203 E Stone Canyon, way up there in the Mountain Estates at Ventana Canyon, sold yesterday for $2,100,000 ($409/sf) off a $2,495,000 list. And it went quick too, and with no price cuts. 
Listed at the very end of June, it was already in contract by mid August. (Listed by Long Realty)

And get this, in a further break from recent spending patterns, Stone Canyon sold for $100,000 more today than when it last sold, for $2.0, in May 2008.

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just the reduced

In Pima Canyon – Once upon a time 1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Place was at $2,800,000. But after the latest price cut, this one for $200 thou, it can now be had for $1,995,000. Which, at 4465 sf, works out to a tidy $446/sf. Tempted? This is a 2006 built spec. (Listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

In Cat 10 - after little more than 3 months on the market, 4525 N Via De La Granja has dropped from $1,399,000 to $1,275,000 ($257/sf)
(Listed by Long Realty) - and extensively and quite lavishly remodeled in the last few years.

4370 E Placita Rio Robles sold for $550,000 in 2001, was listed for $773,000 this May and today - after another price cut, this one for $31,000 - is down to $599,000. (Listed by Gilliland Realty & Inv. Co)

Unfortunately, other than these few price reductions and some unmentionably overpriced new listings there is not very much going on.

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one thing’s for sure, prices are not going up

here are the latest price cuts for the Tucson Foothills,

5847 N Golden Eagle Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750
originally @ $749,000, it was $599,000 yesterday, it is $575,000 today

1380 E Calle Mariposa, originally @ $639,000, yesterday it was $579,900, today it is $559,900.

5132 N Fort Yuma Trail, Tucson, AZ 85750
it was $699,000 yesterday, it is $675,000 today

7605 E Crested Saguaro, Tucson, AZ 85750
originally @ $1,975,000, it was $1,495,000 yesterday, it is $1,295,000 today

7827 N Ancient Indian Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718, now a foreclosure.
But originally, prior to foreclosure, @ $3,750,000. Yesterday it was $1,750,000, today it’s $1,650,000. What will tomorrow bring.

For other points of view on home prices and where they’re headed,
like this one - “The best thing that could happen is for prices to get to a level that clears the market,” said Shapiro, who predicts prices may fall another 10 percent to 15 percent. “Right now, buyers know it hasn’t hit bottom, so they’re sitting on the sidelines.”
read all about it >
Awaiting a ‘lost decade’ for housing market
Heavy supply will keep prices low

and thanks to Nancy, one of my wonderful former clients, for that link.

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to find your Foothills home

only at the right price,

Listed for $542,000 in July 07, 7525 N Viale di Buona Fortuna was reduced and reduced and reduced again. When it finally got down to $369,000 it went to contract and sold for $341,000.
37% off its original asking price.

This is up in Villa Milano at Rancho Sin Vacas, a small community built high up in Sin Vacas in 2004 – 2007, that’s had a tough time getting off the ground. A lot of it had to do with unrealistic pricing, similar to Viale di Buona Fortuna up there.

But, like Viale di Buona Fortuna, buyers have waited it out and now, since prices have come down, sales have perked up a bit. Imagine that.

reduced

What was I saying earlier today about ‘prices are going down every day’. They are, here’s a few from today;

6448 N Desert Wind Circle was reduced to $1,199,000 from $1,399,000.

And 7422 N Mystic Canyon Drive – that’s in Pima Cyn - is now $898,500 ($239/sf) down from $975,000, which is down from the $1,475,000 it started at in 2007. The house is, shall we say, unique, but then so is the price for PC. Intrigued? Looking for something beyond the ordinary. Look no further. The listing describes it as;
AN HOMAGE TO THE HISTORICAL LANDMARK NEIGHBORHOOD OF TUCSON'S SNOB HOLLOW (think downtown Tucson's El Presidio), this home blends a diversity of building styles: American Territorial & Contemporary, w/a hint of Victorian and Mission Revival…

And this hurts, but 3178 E Corte De Andalucia, in escrow since August 3d, fell out for some reason and is back on the market today at $1,099,000 - 26k less than when it went to escrow. 

see them here> reduced
(all three, listed by Long Realty)

and with Andalucia back in play, there are now just 3 homes priced over a million in escrow.

if you’re a high-end buyer, time is on your side

Looking at upper-end Foothills home sales this year, it appears that many sellers must still be looking backward - to what they paid, to what they think they’re home is worth, to what they’re neighbor got 3 years ago – while buyers are looking at the present and the future.

In the present, prices for high-end homes are down about 30% from where they were during the boom. And because there is a big supply and a small demand, prices are going down every day. At the same time, foreclosures and short sales are going up every day.
Which, inevitably, will lead to continuing lower prices in the future. And that’s the future that buyers are keeping a sharp eye on.

With that said, let’s look at what has actually happened in the marketplace at $1.5 mil and up this year, and see if the facts jibe with the opinion. Here are all the homes that were listed for $1,500,000 or more and sold, at any price, since January 1st. There are just 14 homes that meet that criteria, so let’s see how they did.

1. 5280 E Mission Hill Drive was listed for $2,900,000 in 2007, reduced to $1,500,000 in late-late 09 and sold for $1,220,000 in January this year.  That’s 58% less than the original list and 18+% off the final list price. And that’s after a grueling 3 years.

2. 4150 E La Paloma Drive was listed at $2,450,000 in 2005, reduced to $1,500,000 in 2010 and sold for $1,100,000 in 2010.
55% less than the original list and 26% off the final.

3. 4705 N Via De La Granja was listed for $1,895,000 in January this year, rather quickly reduced to $1,585,000 and sold for $1,450,000 last month. In this market, it pays to hop-to-it with the price cuts.
That’s 23+% off the original and 8.5% off the final. And in just 8 months. Nearly lightning speed for anything that’s not a give-away.

4. 6460 N Thimble Pass, listed for $1,997,500 in December 2008, reduced to $1,599,000 in September 09 and sold for $1,475,000 in January 2010. 26% off the original list and 7.7% off the final.

5. 6609 N Eagle Ridge Drive, listed at $1,975,000 in 2008, reduced to $1,749,000 in 09, it sold for $1,700,000 this March - 14% off the original list & 2.8 off the final.

6. 6954 E Gate Ridge Place, listed at $2,100,000 in 2006, reduced to $1,795,000 this February, it sold for $1,700,000 two weeks later.
19+% off the original and just a tad over 5% off the final list.

7. 2192 E Desert Garden Drive, listed at $2,499,000 in January 09, reduced to $1,995,000 in September 09, it sold for $1,800,000 in Feb 2010. 28% off the original & nearly 10% off the final. It was also a foreclosure.

8. 2112 E Sentry Ridge Court, listed at $5,900,000 in Feb 08, reduced to $1,999,000 as a foreclosure in May of this year, it sold for $1,765,000 in August. That’s 70% off the original list and nearly 12% off the final. 70%, is that a record or what.

9. 1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, listed for $3,200,000 in 06, reduced to $1,999,999 in March this year, and  sold for $1.9 in May.
That’s 40% off the original and just 5% off the final.

10. 5227 N Campbell Avenue, listed for $2,695,000 in 2007, reduced to $1,999,999 this January, it sold for $1,600,000 in July.
That’s more than 40% off the original and 20% off the final.

11. 3401 E Camino A Los Vientos. Listed for $2,900,000 in January 09, reduced to $2,000,000 in Feb 2010, it sold for $1,925,000 in March.
33% off the original, but just 3.75 off the final.

12. 3601 E Lone Hill Place. Worth mentioning is that in 2007 they listed it for $3,500,000, reduced it to $2,895,000, and then called it quits after a few months. Then in September 09 they listed it again, this time for $2,350,000, reduced it to $2,200,000 in March and sold it for $1,800,000 a few months later.  Putting the 07 listing aside, it sold for 23% off the original and 18% off the (not so final) final.

13. 7755 N Ancient Indian Drive. Listed for $2,795,000 in November 08, reduced to $2,250,000 in November 09, it sold for a cool 2 million in April 2010. More than 28% off its original and 11% off the final.

14. 6755 N Hole In The Wall Way. Listed for $3,200,000 in 2007, and reduced to $2,495,000 in October 09, it sold for $2,200,000 in March 2010. 31% off its original list and about 12% off the final.

So how’d they do. Well even though they took a whole lot longer and sold for a whole lot less than they thought and hoped they would, they did sell. So they’re the lucky ones.

Those are all the homes that were listed at $1.5 and up and sold this year. Meanwhile, there are 46 homes priced at $1.5 and up that are still for sale in the Foothills.

And with 46 for sale and 14 sold in, let’s say, 8.5 months, that works out to about a 28 month supply of homes at $1.5mil and up.
What does that tell you about where prices are headed. 

And that doesn’t include Oro Valley or Marana or the Northeast or anywhere else. That’s a whole other a can of worms.

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Remembering Javelina Drive

Javelina Drive, you remember, the 11,055 sf Mediterranean beauty way up there in Skyline Country Club. You know, the one that was on the market from 2003, when it was listed for $4,900,000, until it left this past March at $2,995,000.

Yes, that Javelina Dr,

the one with 8 1/2 baths and no waiting

The tax records show that it sold at a trustee sale to Bank Of
Ny Mellon Trust Co in July for $2,160,000.

And I’ll bet that once they finally get done partying up there,
the Mellon gang is going to have it back on the market Pronto, 
and at a pretty good price too.

Do you think they want 11,055 sf of masonry construction/built 1986/completely remodeled in 2001(according to the expired listing)/
2 story/exudes European elegance (also according to the expired listing/6 Bedrooms/3 car/with swedish sauna.

Over the years there was a small fortune spent on advertising this house. It was everywhere, but none of it worked. Why, because even with a Mediterranean beauty like this one, all the advertising in the world can’t make up for the harsh reality of overpricing.

But if this looks like your cup of tea, stay tuned.

here’s a link to the last listing > 6959 N Javelina Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 Enjoy! (link will expire on 10/24/10)

and PS – here’s a fun fact about Javelina Drive. When it last sold, in 2001, it was listed for $3,000,000 and sold for $2,800,000 in 1 (one) day.

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mr lender got it right

Listed by mr lender in mid July for $499,900, 4522 E Don Jose Drive went to contract just 9 days later and closed today for $450,000 $155/sf.

Prior to mr lender getting his hands on it, Don Jose was on the market for about 5 months asking $799,000 and then $699,000. And nothing happened.

4522 E Don Jose Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
link will expire on 10/24/10

what’s in escrow at a million+

The short answer is, not much.

A grand total of 4 homes;

3860 E SUMO NOVENO $1,195,000, the extreme deal that I wrote about the other day > gone in a flash

3178 E Corte De Andalucia in Hacienda del Sol estates, $1,125,000 (273/sf)

3490 E Camino A Los Vientos in Eleven Arches, a 2005 built spec that failed to live up to  expectations- once listed for $3.6, now available for $1.3 or ($178/sf).

and at the top of the heap 7203 E Stone Canyon, listed for $2,495,000, $486/sf.

That’s it. Period. finito.

Last July 09, there were 15 homes in escrow priced at a million + >
15 in escrow at a million +

PS- I realize this is not July, but I’m not able to pull up data on what was in contract in the past. So I have to depend on data from my blog posts during that,  or a similar period.

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in Shadow Hills

After just 40 days on the market, 6100 N Camino Arturo sold for $830,000 in December 05.

And despite it being a whole new ball game it was listed for $825,000 in September 09. So nothing happened and eventually it got down to $650,000 and went to contract today.
(Listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br 70202)

Also in Shadow Hills, 1781 E Placita Padre Isidoro, now listed for $699,000, also went to contract today. But I had buyers for this house months ago - when it was listed for $799,000.
But we were only interested in it at something less than $699,000. And, back then, the sellers wouldn’t hear of it.
(Listed by Long Realty)

In Shadow Hills

the new reality

5641 N PLACITA AMANECER, in Shadow Hills, was listed for $990,000  in 2006 and, even then, went nowhere. So even at the peak there were limits.

And now four years later Placita Amanecer is back on the market at a much more realistic $575,000 ($172/sf). (Listed by Long Realty)

It joins 16 other homes for sale in Shadow Hills, priced, $399,900 to $899,900 – Average list $566,279/Median $574,900 @ $184/sf.

13 sold in Shadow Hills since Jan 1 – from $358,000 to $775,000 -
Average sold $498,531/Median $460,000 @ $171/sf.

And just for the fun of it, in the same period in 2006
(1/1 – 9/21) 16 homes sold in Shadow Hills, from $512,500 to $870,000 – Average sold $648,286/Median $646,500 @ $226/sf.

So, according to those numbers, average sold prices in Shadow Hills are down 23%, median is down 29% and $/sf is -24% from the good old days. On the other hand, the number of homes sold in Shadow Hills is awfully close to 06 levels.

see it here> 5641 N PLACITA AMANECER Tucson, AZ 85718

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gone in a flash

Word is 3860 E SUMO NOVENO in Cat 10, listed last Thursday at $1,195,000 ($197/sf), had three offers and went to contract over the weekend for more than list price.

Sumo Noveno last sold in 2004 for $1,215,000. Some time after that it was extensively renovated – all new floors, kitchen, 5 new baths, new mechanicals & more. Plus all new landscaping – they ripped out the old and put in the new, by Plants of Distinction, the la-di-da-est of la-di-da landscapers in town. All to the tune of well over $1,200,000.

And that’s why, when it was listed for $1,195,000, it went in a flash.
And it’s not a short sale or a foreclosure. It’s a barely lived in, totally renovated, cat 10 house on a big, private city view lot.  
I previewed it a couple of weeks ago before it hit the market and showed it last Friday and was planning to show it again today but, darn, it’s gone.

That is one of the homes I was referring to in last weeks post,
sellers capitulate – when I said, ‘These homes will sell and they’ll sell a lot quicker and for a lot closer to list price than what we’ve been seeing for the last few years’

see it here> 3860 E SUMO NOVENO Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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in Skyline Country Club

5441 E Gleneagles Drive left the market in July at $1,495,000 and is back today at $1,297,000 ($232/sf).

The listing says; Outstanding remodeled Southwestern contemporary in prestigious, gated Skyline CC Est. All on one level w/no steps, main house w/appox 4700 sq ft & guest house, w/approx 800 sqft …

see it here > 5441 E Gleneagles Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

At the moment there are 12 homes for sale in Skyline, priced $399,900 to $3,450,000 – Average list $1,164,392/Median $839,950
vs 8 sold so far this year - $440,000 to $1,395,000.
Average sold  $885,000/Median $850,000.

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an uphill battle

After 6 months on the market 6124 E Owls Nest Place, in Rio Verde Vista, expired today asking $1,100,000 ($271/sf).

The last time a home sold for a million $$ or more in Rio Verde Vista was in the gold rush days of 2006. Two sold that year, one for $1,125,000, the other for $1,052,000. Since then, the next highest sales were an $825k sale in 08 and a $770k in 07.

There are 5 other homes for sale in there, priced $309,900, $359,900, $699,000, $899,000 and $1,149,500. The $1,149,500 has been at it for 481 days. 

And 5 sold this year, for $248,000, $261,000, $335,000, $431,900 and $710,000. So the number of sales is alright but, dollar for dollar, list prices are outpacing sold prices by a bunch.

And that’s the short story of Rio Verde Vista – east on River Rd from Craycroft about half a mile, and you’re there. 

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money talks

6487 N Lazulite, at the Ridge at Ventana Canyon, started out in August at $1,149,000 and is now –already - down to $799,000 ($224/sf) - that’s down 30%.

I think they want to sell > 6487 N Lazulite Tucson, AZ 85750
(Listed by Long Realty)

for comparison, at the Ridge at Ventana Canyon
-this is the only home for sale,
-but since Jan 1, 4 have sold in there, for > $597,000 ($269/sf),
$650,000 ($223/sf), $630,000 ($218/sf) & $700,000 ($215/sf).

So, on paper anyway, this one now looks to be in the strike zone.

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hey, we’re next

CNNMoney.com
California housing prices on the rebound

Home prices are rising in virtually every corner of the state. They've climbed for nine consecutive months, and in July posted a 10.4% gain year-over-year.

Most of the subprime-related distressed properties have been flushed from the system. And when a foreclosure does hit the market, it's snapped up. The median days it took to sell a home in July was just 44 -- lightening fast.

"It's the dearth of supply for distressed properties that has put pressure on home prices," said Appleton-Young. "More than half the homes on the market last year drew multiple offers."

For home sellers in other states, what's happening in California is encouraging. Trends often begin on the coast, so they're hoping the recovery will roll eastward.

Read all about it > California housing prices on the rebound

That’s certainly good news for us. If Californians, who were migrating here in big numbers before the bust, are able to sell their homes more easily and for more money, they can pick up where they left off and start buying homes in Tucson again.

death by a thousand cuts

While some sellers are starting to really price their homes for the market we’re in today, others are still making those itsy-bitsy meaningless and annoying little price cuts that buyers ignore or, more likely, scoff at.

Do they really think buyers are going to get excited about a 1% price cut -

Quick Herman, grab the checkbook and lets get a move-on, before the Jones’s beat us to it, Alta Reposa just dropped from $840,000 to $829,000…

sellers capitulate

Recently I’ve mentioned that (FINALLY) some of the newer listings have been coming to market at more realistic prices than those in the past. And that I hoped it would continue, catch on, and become the hot new tres chic trend. Oui! Oui!

Well that idea just got a big boost. Very recently two homes were listed for sale in the Foothills at 30% or more -less than the sellers paid for them just a few years ago. In other words, they cut the - bought at the height of the market - fat out of the list price right off the bat. Before it hit the market.

And for one of those listings the fat amounted to $750,000. And even more for the other.

These homes will sell and they’ll sell a lot quicker and for a lot closer to list price than what we’ve been seeing for the last few years.
And these sales will also, I hope, make a strong impression on buyers and on those agents who are paying attention to what’s going on in the market.

I also know of one other home that has been similarly reduced, and has yet to hit the market. And since I have interested buyers, I’m keeping the details of these homes under my hat for the time being.

UPDATE- the listing agent for one of these homes has informed me that, already, there are two offers in the works. A million +, 36 hours on the market and 2 offers. There are buyers out there. Oui!

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this house was listed today

WOW!

Nice looking, huh.

on 1.08 acres/it’s 2008 built/7,831 sf/5 Beds/6 Baths + 2 half baths/2 story/Pool-spa/4 car/in Catalina Foothills Estates NO. 2/$3,295,000 ($427/sf) at 4521 N Hacienda Del Sol Tucson, AZ 85718.
It left the market in January 09 at $3,995,000.

Looking at the listing in the mls I couldn’t figure out where, exactly, this house is located. But still, it seemed so familiar.
So I pulled the history and, bam, it all came back in a flash.

Once upon a time, that house up there was this house down here,


Well, not exactly. They knocked this house down and built that one. But it’s the lot that, for me, was so special and familiar. It’s a magnificent hilltop lot, set way back and high up off Hacienda del Sol Rd.

charming, eh.

I hemmed and hawed about buying this house in 05. But I hemmed and hawed too long and these people came along and snatched it out from under me.

And, obviously, they had bigger plans for it than I did.  
I wasn’t planning on knocking it down, just doing some renovation.
Back then it was a 1956 built/brick construction/4600 sf/ 
5 bedrooms/3.5 Baths/with oodles of charm and killer views in a wonderful location, location. It sold for $712,500 in 05.

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is that a light at the end of the tunnel or a mirage

Recently, for some clients I’ve been working with, I was looking at sales and prices over the years and comparing them to where we are now. And with that done, I thought, why not polish it up a bit and share those numbers. So, a look at sales and prices over the years.

Starting with the number of homes sold and moving along to the average original list price, then the list price at time of sale and, finally, the sold price - of the homes sold from January thru August for each year from 2001 thru today. 10 whole years.
As always, this is for single family homes only and only in the Tucson Foothills.

Year	# Sold	Original list	List at sale	Sold Price
2001	637	$389,700	$388,199	$376,206
2002	590	$412,062	$406,797	$394,141
2003	622	$561,923	$425,829	$410,776
2004	734	$590,811	$518,842	$501,489
2005	761	$686,840	$621,874	$610,781
2006	535	$923,066	$732,677	$705,405
2007	465	$887,417	$712,864	$681,897
2008	392	$742,209	$681,327	$641,264
2009	357	$624,332	$584,278	$538,284
2010	411	$592,974	$553,906	$513,423

Observations,
-from 01 to 06 average sold prices rose a whopping 87%. And since 06 they’ve retreated 27%. But from 01 to today they’re still up 36%.

-in 2001 and 2002 there was a tight correlation between list prices  and sale prices - back then homes were selling for about 96% of their original list price. Whereas, by 2006, with sellers expecting ever more $$ for their homes, just as buyers were beginning to retreat, homes were selling for just 76% of original list price.

-and these days, in a strong buyers market, they’re selling for about 86% of original list and 92+% of list at time of sale. Nothing to write home about, but not embarrassing either.

And I’m betting that these numbers will continue to improve.
Why. Because there are unmistakable signs that sellers, at least the new crop coming to market, have finally gotten it and are pricing their homes much more appropriately than sellers were in the past. And those better priced homes will sell quicker and for closer to list price. That’s not every single new listing, but enough, I’m hoping, to make a real difference.   

-Sales, the number of homes sold, are down 46% from their peak in 05 but, reversing a four year downward trend, are up 15% from last year and are also up a point or two from 08.

-and while prices this year are lower than in any year since 04, they are at least a notch or two ahead of 04. You see not too long ago they were hovering below 04 and nosing well into 03 territory. GULP!

- and prices fell 16% from 08 to 09, but are down just 4.6% from 09 to 10.

so for now anyway, some somewhat encouraging signs.

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Case Closed, thank goodness

After 4 long years on the market, starting at $2,300,000 in June 06 and ending at $1,490,000 a few months ago, 4845 E Winged Foot Drive went nowhere. But then mr. lender reared his ugly head and  Winged Foot was foreclosed and re-listed on 8/13 for a mere $1,072,500. A no-brainer, it quickly went to contract, like within two weeks, and closed escrow today for $975,000 ($241/sf).

I’d mentioned it here when it was listed> another failed spec home, another foreclosure 

OK, one last look > 4845 E Winged Foot Drive Tucson, AZ 85718

And please, click away. These are the new, next generation, guaranteed to last one-thousand clicks, links.

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YEAH!

The setting for links from flexmls has been changed to 1000 from the previously feeble 100.

So no more having to lay out 3 or 4 links. YEAH!

in the Canyons

3657 E Canyon Wind Pl is back in the game.
Canyon Wind left the market in June at $3,400,000 and returned today at $2,995,000. At 5691 sf that’s $526/sf. It last sold in 2004 for $2,700,000. (Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

With Canyon Wind there are now 6 homes for sale in the Canyons -
from $1,990,000 to $3,990,000 and then one at $13,500,000.
An impressive lineup.

On the other hand the last time a home sold in the Canyons was in July 2008. Nothing since. And there’s nothing in contract up there either. So if you’re looking, you’ll have the pick of the litter.

see them here > for sale in the Canyons

or here > for sale in the Canyons

or here too > for sale in the Canyons

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mr. lender rears his ugly head again

4215 N Saranac Drive is on the market as a foreclosure, now available for $559,900 ($173/sf). This is a 2006 built spec home that sold for $750,000 in 2006. (Listed by Century 21 Catalina)

And 6924 E Gate Ridge Place also joins the ranks of foreclosure properties today. Once listed at the absurd price of $1,600,000, Gate Ridge Place can now be yours for a mere $819,900 ($188/sf) or less.
I wrote about the travails of this house in Feb 09 in> keeping up with the Jones’s in Ventana Overlook.  (Listed by Win3 Realty)

See them here> Saranac Drive & Gate Ridge Place

or here> Saranac Drive & Gate Ridge Place

or here> Saranac Drive & Gate Ridge Place

or here> Saranac Drive & Gate Ridge Place

If one of the links is not working, please try another.
This silliness is necessary because for some inexplicable reason, the links from flex mls, our new high-tech MLS provider, wear out and stop working after 100 clicks. So as a work around, I offer three four links which should last for 300 400 clicks. Absurd but true. I do apologize for the inconvenience. (the original three links were burned up in 2 days, so I added 4 new ones) 
This is one of the high-tech, timesaving features that FLEXMLS failed to mention during their pitch.

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50 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days

Here’s what those sales look like;

37 sold from $0 to $599,999 
9 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 
4 sold from $1,000,000 & up 

Avg sold $$ - $510,220
Med sold $$ - $385,000
Avg $/sf -      $168

That’s against 436 for sale or, at that rate of sales, the equivalent of 8.7 months of inventory for the foothills overall. And heck, 8.7 months, that doesn’t sound too bad.

No it doesn’t, but lets look at it broken down by price;
244 for sale @ $0 to $599,999 = 6.5 months
103 @ $600,000 to $999,999 = 11.4 months inventory 
89  @ $1,000,000 & up = 22 months inventory
So it goes from good, to bad to worse.

And here’s the fly in the ointment,
The Average list price of the homes for sale is $826,277, a whopping 62% above the average sold price of homes that sold
The Median list price is $549,000, 43% above the median sold price
And Avg $/sf of homes for sale is $220, 31% above the average
$/sf of homes that sold.

So still a huge gap between the price of homes that buyers are buying and those that remain for sale. And it’s all because buyers are still buying the lower priced homes and ignoring, for the most part, the higher priced homes.

Here look. The average list price of the 50 homes that sold was $549,954 and the median was $398,250, very much in line with the average/median sold prices of $510,220/$385,000.

That’s why the inventory at the low end is nice and normal and from there, goes from bad to worse.

Here are three links to the 50 that sold;
If one link is dead please go to the next, sorry for the inconvenience.

50 SOLD

50 SOLD

50 SOLD

Why have three links to the same info. Well I discovered that often my links were going dead in a day or two and I wondered why. So I asked flex, our new high-tech provider of MLS services. And to my surprise they informed me that after a link has been clicked on 100x it goes dead. Just like that, kaput. Worn out. That stinks. So I put three links and I’ll put four or five if I  have to. Seems crazy, but there you have it. Progress.

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what’s new

5181 N CIRCULO SOBRIO is new on the market after a long time-out.

It sold in June 07 for $1,235,000 and was relisted in September 08 – yes September 08 - for $1,239,000. That, of course, did not fly and it left the market in Feb 09 with no sale.

The good news is that it’s back today with a new agent and a new price - $999,000 ($291/sf) in Cat 10. 


1985 built/burnt adobe construction/on 1.4 acres/3430 sf/4 Beds/
3 Baths/pool-spa/3 car/killer mountain views
(Listed by Long Realty)

Then there’s a new ‘possible’ short sale over at Ventana Reserve.
When it was brand new in August 07, 6033 N Indian Trail sold for $1,054,679 from the builder AF Sterling. Today it can be yours for $899,000 ($207/sf). Well, that is, if the lender agrees. (Listed by Long Realty)

And over in Sin Vacas 2390 E Calle Sin Controversia is a new listing at $699,000 ($194/sf). Sin Controversia last sold in Sept 2003 for $630,000. (Listed by Long Realty)

That’s about it for now. Quiet as can be in Tucson Foothills real estate. And though it may not be exactly what we need right now, I do know of some new listings that will be coming along soon and I’m sure there are plenty of others that I’m not privy to.  

And on that note, I notice that some, maybe even quite a few, of the new listings that are coming to market have bitten the bullet and are priced more appropriately, right from the jump, for the market we’re in now. And that’s a real ray of light.

See all three > 5181 N CIRCULO SOBRIO, 6033 N Indian Trail &
2390 E Calle Sin Controversia

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the more the merrier

With 6549 N Calle De La Lluvia listed today, there are now 15 homes for sale in Alta Vista.

So if you’re looking for a 2002 built/frame stucco/2 story/3,950 sf/
5 Bed/ 4.5 Bath/Contemporary/on .35 acres/listed for $1,299,000/$329/sf/in Alta Vista, you’re in luck.  (Listed by Advanced Capital Realty, Inc)

see it here> 6549 N Calle De La Lluvia, Tucson, AZ 85750

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beating the odds

On the market for more than 2 years at $1,795,000, 5855 E Placita De La Zuerencia was relisted in April with a new agent at $1,295,000 and,  Presto!, sold today for $1,200,000 ($210/sf).

The sellers should thank their lucky stars.
La Zuerencia is a 2008 built, 2 story spec home that overlooks Craycroft near the top of it’s curve thru Alta Vista.

5855 E Placita De La Zuerencia Tucson, AZ 85750

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Buyers & Sellers, the great divide

Jack Donnelly put off selling his Capitol Hill rowhouse for three years until he thought he saw glimmers of life in the housing market this past spring. At $950,000, he said, the red brick Victorian is a "solid deal."

Jackie Wright sees it differently. The row house is one of many homes competing for her attention in uncertain economic times. She's been looking to buy a home in the District since April but is in no rush to commit, partly because she thinks mortgage interest rates - and prices - could sink even lower.

As with many prospective sellers, Donnelly's hopes for his rowhouse were forged in the past, before the housing bust, when homeowners assumed that real estate prices would inexorably rise. They expected to reap vast windfalls when their houses sold.

But Wright's eyes are turned to the future. She's anxious about whether the coming months will bring more gloomy economic news and reluctant to gamble on a major purchase, especially if a flagging market might actually mean better deals ahead.
___________________________________________________________

Read all about it; The Washington Post
A housing market out of sync

And this is exactly what is happening here in the Tucson Foothills. Sellers are looking backward and Buyers are looking forward. And the result is a huge reality gap. I touched on this in> going beyond ‘the comps’

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more for Sabino Mountain

Just the other day I mentioned what’s been happening and not happening in home sales up on Sabino Mountain> an uphill battle on Sabino Mountain < essentially, not a single home sold over $410k in more than six months. And the last sale at $1.0 or more was in April 09.

Nevertheless, 7605 E Crested Saguaro Place is back in play today at $1,495,000 ($275/sf), the cheapest it’s been in the nearly three years it’s been for sale. It started out in 07 looking for $2,195,000 and left the market last month at $1,695,000. This makes it three for sale priced well over a million. (Listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

For more on Crested Saguaro see > of course you can ask whatever you want

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headed in the right direction

6325 N Pinnacle Ridge, in Pinnacle Ridge, sold in September 06 for $1,100,000 and was listed the other day for $949,000 ($213/sf)

Pinnacle Ridge, aka Paloma Canyon, is a friendly and kid friendly gated community in the north central foothills.

6325 N Pinnacle Ridge Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Freedom Realty)

The Scene; There are two other homes for sale in Pinnacle Ridge - at $620,000 & $799,950 – 2 under contract at $599,000 & $859,000 – and 2 sold in the last six months at $675,000 & $747,000. So a fairly harmonious situation, that is, if you don’t consider the 3 homes that have either expired or been withdrawn in the last 6 months and have yet to return.

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4275 E La Paloma Tucson, AZ 85718

I mentioned this house the other day and said it was a super-duper deal and wouldn't last a week.

Turns out it didn’t last two days. It’s already under contract to some lucky buyer.

4275 E La Paloma Tucson, AZ 85718

See, there are buyers out there and they’re ready to buy.

an uphill battle on Sabino Mountain

4041 N Quail Canyon Drive on Sabino Mountain was first listed in Feb 09 for $1,199,000 and, after a $5000 price cut, expired six months later at $1,194,000 ($318/sf). (Listed by Coldwell Banker Residential)

It was re-listed in October 09 for the same $1,194,000 and, after another $5000 price cut, expired seven months later at $1,189,000.

And now after a four month hiatus, Quail Canyon is back on the market today, trying a little harder, with a $39,000 price cut at $1,150,000 ($307/sf).

And though contracts and sales have been quite brisk on Sabino Mountain, all the activity has been below $500K.

Five homes for sale  up there @ $299,900, $379,900, $590,000, $1,150,000 & $1,249,000.

Three in contract @ $334,900, $354,900, $450,000

Nine homes sold in the last six months – but all nine sold from $289,900 to $410,000.

Coincidentally, during the same period in 06, there were also nine homes sold on Sabino Mountain. But four sold from $475 to $525 and five sold from $1.1 to $1.9. The good old days. But face it, they’re long gone.

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there’s plenty to choose from in Alta Vista

With 6061 N Paseo Zaldivar listed today for $995,000 ($251/sf), there are now 16 homes for sale in Alta Vista. (Listed by Keller Williams)

But with only two homes sold in the last six months, Alta Vista has a bountiful 48 month supply of homes for sale.

The 16 for sale range from $499,000 to $2,100,000.
Average list - $988,304
Median - $942,000
@ $252/sf

see them all here> for sale in Alta Vista
the link will expire on 10/3/10

The two that did sell went for $714,000 ($157/sf) and
$900,000 ($210/sf). There are also two homes under contract.
One is listed at $499,000 ($197/sf) and the other is a spec home listed at $1,295,000 ($226/sf).

Now I know that buyers are looking closely at these and other numbers to help them understand market conditions and determine realistic values in Alta Vista. But I wonder, are the sellers in Alta Vista also doing their due diligence and do they fully understand the dismal state of market conditions in there.

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a super-duper deal

4275 E La Paloma Tucson, AZ 85718
Originally built 1979/3624 sf/4 Beds/3 Baths/Pool-Spa/beautiful backyard and mountain views/4 car garage/$789,000/that’s $218/sf/on the north side of La Paloma Dr
(Listed by Long Realty)

Purchased in 2003 for $535,000 and, as far as I can tell,  gutted and renovated top to bottom. And they didn’t go cheap, they used high quality materials throughout. I showed this house two or three times in the spring of 09 when it was $985,000 and marveled at the extensive renovation.

It was first listed in July 07 for $1.2. And it’s not a short sale or foreclosure. I met the owners a few times previewing and showing it. Really nice people, and I think they just threw in the towel and want to move on.

This is one of those deals where I really wish I had someone for it.
But I don’t. boo-hoo, and I bet it won’t last a week.

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August home sales

Here are the numbers for August single family home sales in the Tucson Foothills. First up are the numbers for this year, followed by those for previous Augusts.

August	# Sold	Avg Sold $	Med Sold $	Avg $/sf	@ $1.0 up
2010	51	$509,541	$380,000	$170	4 sold
2009	49	$559,080	$421,500	$192	7 sold
2008	37	$620,173	$530,000	$214	5 sold
2007	52	$554,429	$508,500	$255	4 sold
2006	62	$649,530	$555,000	$233	9 sold

So while sales are holding up quite well, except at $1.0 +, prices definitely are not.

It’s a bit simplistic but, using the average $/sf figures, 
a 3000 sf house purchased in August 2007 would have set you back $765,000 VS just $510,000 had you purchased it this August. Or a 33% discount.

And while average sale prices are down just 8% from August 07, median prices are off 25%. Suggesting, what we already know, that fewer higher priced homes, and more low priced homes, are selling now than did back then. 

But August average prices are up a smidge from July’s, at $490,823. And up from June, at $482,010, and May at $467,971. But down from April at $514,715, and down from every other month prior to April this year.

And see July home sales for a comparison

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