The Catalina Foothills

boo

the pulse of the market

Here’s a look at the number of single family homes currently in contract vs. those for sale in the Tucson Foothills.

There are 476 single family homes for sale and  82 homes currently in contract. 
So about 17% of the number for sale are in contract. That’s overall.

Broken down by price range it looks a little different,

$0  to $599,999
263 for sale/63 in contract = 24% in contract

$600,000 to $999,999
117 for sale/15 in contract = 13% in contract

$1,000,000 to $1,499,999
48 for sale/3 in contract = 6% in contract

$1,500,000 to $1,999,999
21 for sale/1 in contract = 4.8% in contract

$2,000,000 & up
27 for sale/0 in contract =  0%

As we get into the fall/winter selling season and the action heats up, we hope, looking at what’s in contract, and at what price, is like taking the pulse of the market.  Not that all contracts will result in a sale - they won’t, some will fall through - but, nevertheless, current contracts are an excellent indicator of where the $$$ is going and of buyers intentions.  And it is a much more timely than looking at sales, most of which were generated 30 to 90 days ago and, as such, are definitely not the pulse of the market.  And for comparison, check > the envelope please < the same analysis that I did two weeks ago.

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a new look

as you can see I’ve been fiddling with the look and layout  of the the blog. And so far I’m pretty happy with it – except the mountains are all squished and weird, it’s a work in progress.

JS

slam bam

7144 N Lemmon Rock Circle was listed for $719,000 on 9/14, went to contract on 9/17 and closed today for $710,000 ($243/sf) (listed by Long Realty)

3860 E SUMO NOVENO, in Cat 10, was listed on 9/16 for $1,195,000, and two days later had 3 offers and closed today for $1,210,000 ($199/sf) (listed by Long Realty)

I had talked about Sumo Noveno here > gone in a flash

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today, October 28

7331 E Desert Moon Loop, which last sold in 2005 for $875,000, dropped from $885,000 to $799,000 (listed by Long Realty)

and 4911 E Oakmont Drive - that’s in Skyline Country Club - on the market since October 08 when it started at $1,199,000, went to contract today off an $899,000 list price. (listed by Long Realty)

and in Shadow Hills, 5631 N Placita de la Noche, first listed this past June for $565,000 also went to contract off a $515,000 list price. (listed by Long Realty) 

2390 E Calle Sin Controversia, up in Sin Vacas and making all the right moves, sold today for $693,000 off a $699,000 list price after just 17 days on the market. No argument there, Sin Controversia (the street without controversy) last sold in 03 for $630,000.
(listed by Long Realty)

7661 E Canon De La Vista didn’t fare quite as well, but it did sell.
Listed in May of this year for $799,000, reduced & reduced again, it sold today for $645,000 off a $679,000 list price. (listed by Long Realty)

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the last 90 days

Here’s a look at the number of homes sold + the average/median sold prices for the last 90 days. That’s for this year & for the same 90 day period for past years (for single family homes in the tucson foothills only)

the last 90 days
2010- 118 sold/$475,208/$375,000

2009- 137 sold/$544,810/$444,000

2008- 100 sold/$626,175/$530,000

2007- 123 sold/$672,539/$535,000

2006- 144 sold/$704,777/$592,500

2005- 182 sold/$617,703/$533,500

2004- 227 sold/$495,715/$425,000

2003- 224 sold/$421,084/$350,000

2002- 190 sold/$397,332/$311,500

2001- 180 sold/$366,510/$287,500

2000- 197 sold/$371,866/$287,000

So sales are lower in the current 90 day period than for any of the previous 10 years – except, of course, for 2008 when the brunt of the economic collapse hit smack dab in the middle of this 90 day period.

Home sales are now way, way off. And they’re not just off from the peak or boom years either. No, they’re off from well before the boom was even a rumble.

If you are selling, or trying to sell, and still holding out for better times, you may want to reconsider your strategy.

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looking for a Joesler

Approximately, 3000 – 4000 sf, 3+ Bedrooms, good vintage condition, well located in the old foothills, private, good views.Fair market value.

I have a buyer and there are just 2 3 Joeslers currently for sale and none of them quite fit the bill.  Call or email johnschneiders@gmail.com - 271-4164

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the best laid plans

This, I hope, is the final chapter in a long running tale of foreclosures and short sales that have beset this little community on the west side of Campbell Ave.

#1, the mother ship, 5775 N Campbell Ave, is the original property that encompassed all 7 acres and a 6300 sf house built in 1973. 

And all was well until a visionary with big plans came along and bought the mother ship for $1,325,000 in 2003 and split up the 7 acres to build spec homes. And that left the mother ship with just one acre, which they promptly listed for $1,795,000. And it finally sold in 2009 for $660,000 as a foreclosure.

Talk about starting off on the wrong foot, here’s how the rest of it went;

#2, 5761 N Campbell Ave was listed for $1,234,000 in 2006 and sold for $700,000 in 2007 as a foreclosure. A pioneer, it was one of the very first foreclosures in the old foothills.

#3, 5771 N Campbell Ave started off on the right foot, but it soon got tripped up. It sold as a new spec home in April 2007 for list price, $2,200,000. Then just ten months later, in February 2008, it was listed as a short sale for $1,100,000. And it finally sold in August 2009 for $860,000.

#4, 5759 N Campbell Ave was listed in 2007 for $935,000 and finally sold in 2009 for $540,000 as a short sale.

and last but not least, #5, 5805 N Campbell Ave was listed in May 2007 for $1,989,000 and sold yesterday for $825,000 as a short sale.

The End

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strange visitors from another planet

Here we are still in October and already the talk has turned to the growing number of cars on our streets with out-of-state plates. And how restaurants and shops are getting busier by the day. A sure sign of snow birds coming to roost for the winter season.

And, of course, in the hallowed halls of real estate everyone is revving up for the arrival of our winter visitors. The hope, or expectation, is that their arrival will bring a surge of home buying here in the foothills that will pull us out of our doldrums.

So you’ll see more advertising for homes and more open houses and, for sure, there will be a slew of new listings coming to market to meet the hoped-for demand. 

Just the other day I had a conversation with some clients about how the attitude of sellers and their listing agents will change once January rolls around. January is opening day for the winter season and, with its arrival, sellers and their agents get all puffed-up and confident. They become more confident of getting a good offer and, in turn, become less flexible about what they’re willing to accept. And because there are more buyers on the streets, it stands to reason that they would. Because for many years that’s how it worked.

Come January, snow birds would arrive and home sales in the foothills would take off like a shot. And that seasonal rhythm has become ingrained and second nature.

But our winter visitors, whether they’re from Chicago, Des Moines or Kansas City, are not from another planet. And they are not going to arrive with pockets full of cash and a care-free, free spending attitude. They are not.

They are going to be as careful and concerned and tight fisted, 
and as much on the lookout for a bargain, as everyone else has been. So rather than getting all puffed up and confident, the best thing sellers and their agents could do, that is if they wish to take advantage of this fleeting opportunity, is to get their prices down to where buyers see their homes as an opportunity that is just too good to pass up. One that may not come their way again. 

Otherwise, those winter visitors are going to go home to Des Moines with nothing more than some cactus jelly and frozen tamales and maybe think about having another look at the foothills in 2012.

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from a weekend’s worth of wheeling and dealing, this is what we have to show for it

2 new listings 
5129 N Whitehurst Place $369,000 and 6845 N 1st Avenue $375,000

2 relisted old listings 
7225 N Village Avenue $354,900 and 6273 N Desert Moon, now $1,295,000 from $1,385,000

see them here > New & relisted

3 price reductions 
991 E Calle Mariposa now down to $510,00 after dropping $5k every two weeks since June when it started at $570,000. Seriously, every two weeks whether they needed it or not.

2462 E Calle Sin Controversia is wasting no time. Listed on September 20th for $749,000 it’s down to $715,000

4621 N Via Masina down to $799,000 from $833,500 from an original list of $858,800, but that was from last July (that’s July 09). Also I noticed that Via Masina had 26 open houses from when it was listed last July through June of this year. 26 is a lot of open houses for one house – and adds some fuel to the burning question, do open houses sell homes.

and here >  3 price reductions

and 3 contracts 
but at the lower end of the low end,
6540 N Alvernon Way for $298,000, 7010 N 1st Avenue at $324,950 and 4950 E Calle Capistrano at $399,000

and 3 contracts

and there you have it, from the front lines of an action packed weekend in Tucson Foothills real estate

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open houses

On a beautiful Sunday like this in October you’d expect to see dozens of high-end homes having an open house.

But searching the Tucson MLS and the Long Realty site, there are just 5 homes listed at $800,000 & up scheduled for an open house today. That’s it, 5 homes, and three of them are in Pima Canyon. And those three are from the same agent, Susanne Grogan. So Susanne’s going to have her hands full today, but what the heck is everyone else doing.  

On the other hand, at $0 to $799,999 there are 26 open houses scheduled today.

So why so few at the high-end??

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just when you least expect it, another contract

On the market since April at $1,300,000, 4845 N Camino Escuela is reported under contract this afternoon. Cmo Escuela is 3909 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths/Masonry Stucco construction/built 1964 and updated since/($333/sf)

(listed by Long Realty)

4845 N Camino Escuela Tucson, AZ 85718

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in Pima Canyon

7828 N Ancient Indian Drive is starting to look like quite a good deal. It dropped another $200 thou the other day, to $1,995,000 or $271/sf. It started life in January 09 at $3,295,000.

Amongst the homes listed at a million $$ and up in Pima Canyon
(16 homes) it is now the lowest $/sf price by quite a bit  ** except for the foreclosure up the street that’s at $248/sf but that also had a good bit of damage done and is a foreclosure, with all that it connotes **

The average $/sf of all homes listed in PC is now $396/sf.
Amongst those listed at $1,000,000 and up it is $441/sf.
Amongst those sold in the last 6 months it is $325/sf at sold price.
And one went to contract the other day listed at $1,595,000 or $299/sf.

Ancient Indian is a biggie, it’s 7365 sf, 5 Bedrooms/5.5 Baths/with a huge kitchen and adjoining family room. And it’s also in one of the
la-di-da double gated areas of PC.

7828 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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what happened today, 10/21

Well, 6942 N Longfellow Lane, which sold last October for $950,000 is once again for sale, this time for $869,900, which works out to a very modest $175/sf. And check out the renovation. The previous owners did a beautiful stem to stern renovation/remodel. I mean everything, and they used good stuff. Plus this house has gorgeous, in your face, mountain views. But you’ve got to want a 2 story. If that’s OK and you want 5000sf of burnt adobe construction that’s been totally updated, with 4 Beds/4.5 Baths/2 car/pool & more, you should see it. Better yet, you should have me show it to you. (listed by Long Realty)

Also listed today is 6856 N Solaz Cuarto, that’s up in Cat 9 – a little west of La Encantada on the north side of Skyline.
The listing describes it as; “LOCATION AND INCREDIBLE KITCHEN, THEN ADD SUPERB VIEWS IN DIST 16. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A CLASSIC TUCSON BURNT ADOBE HILLTOP HOME THAT HAS IT ALL, THIS IS IT!”

Solaz Cuarto is 1978 built/1 acre/3,563 sf/5 Beds/3 Baths/Burnt Adobe/Pool/5 (five) garage spaces. $899,000 ($252/sf)
I have not seen it in person but it sure looks like the real deal.
 
(listed by Long Realty)

6151 N Piedra Seca closed today for $680,000 ($223/sf). Another victim of the boom/bust, the sellers paid $875,000 for it in April 06. That’s about when the market in the foothills was at its
white-hottest, moments before it began to fizzle. 
But they faced the music and listed it in May for $749,000 and quickly dropped it to $699,00 from where it sold. (also listed by Long Realty)

 4035 N Boulder Canyon Place is still at it. It was relisted today, this time for $670,000. Boulder Canyon last sold in April 04 for $554,103
and was listed last October for $825,000. (listed by Coldwell Banker)

What didn’t happen today?
Dozens of high-end foothills homes didn’t drastically reduce their prices today.  As a matter of fact not even one did.

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the Tucson Foothills foreclosure scene

What with all the dark clouds swirling around foreclosures these days, it seemed like a good time to have a look at their impact in the foothills market. (this data is for single family homes) 

there are 27 foreclosures listed for sale
23 are priced from $0 to $599,999
  3 are priced $600,000 to $999,999
  1 is priced at $1.0 or more
Average list is $412,288/$307,900 median

9 foreclosures are in contract
6 are priced $0 to $599,999
3 are priced $600,000 to $999,999
Average list is $445,795/$376,101 median

64 foreclosures have sold so far this year
57 sold from $0 to $599,999
  5 from $600,000 to $999,999
  2 from $1,000,000 & up
Average sold is $374,801/$307,203 median

And here’s how those foreclosures stack up in the overall
foothills market;

The 27 foreclosures for sale represent 5.6% of the total (477) homes for sale

The 9 foreclosures in contract represent 11.5% of the total (78) homes in contract

And the 64 foreclosures sold this year represent 13.6% of the total (471) homes sold this year

So as you can see, buyers like foreclosures, as they are selling quite well relative to the small number available for sale. Nevertheless, we can be thankful that, so far, foreclosures are still a small percentage of the overall activity in the Tucson foothills market.

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in the Tucson Foothills

there are now 474 homes for sale. Not an all-time high, not at all, but a couple of months ago there were 433 for sale.

And in the last 30 days (from 9/20 to 10/20)  just 32 single family homes sold.

While a couple of months ago (from 7/20 to 8/20) 51 single family homes sold.

So, at the moment, inventory is growing while sales are shrinking.

And it is very likely that the inventory will continue to grow as more homes come to market to meet the hoped-for surge in demand during the fall/winter selling season. So let’s all keep our fingers crossed that we actually have a fall/winter selling season.

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WANTED

one 2800 sf, 1971 built, burnt adobe La Quinta in the old foothills -
3 bedroom + office, 3 baths

must have - new kitchen, 3 new baths, new stained concrete & wood floors, new windows & doors inside and out, newly chip sealed driveway, updated mechanicals, beautifully tended native landscaping. Location, charm and privacy in a beautifully updated and meticulously maintained classic Foothills home. $699,000

It’s not yet in the MLS, but if this is what you’ve been hoping to find, call me, I’d love to show it you. 271- 4164.

It is not my listing, but I believe that once it hits the MLS it won’t last 5 days.

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in the last 24 hours

Heeere they come, the new listings, for the fall/winter season;

7041 N CATHEDRAL ROCK Place Tucson, AZ 85718 - $699,000 ($220/sf) – 3181 sf/built 1986/4 Beds/3Bath (listed by Long Realty)

5911 E Placita Primitiva Tucson, AZ 85750, in Alta Vista - $939,000 ($250/sf) 3761 sf/built 1998/5 Beds/3 Bath (listed by Long Realty)

4932 N Avenida De Castilla , Tucson, AZ 85718, in Hacienda Del Sol Estates, $1,149,000 ($315/sf) – 3645 sf/built 2000/4 Beds/3 Bath
(listed by Long Realty)

3770 E Placita De Piacho Tucson, AZ 85718, in Cat 10 - $1,175,000 ($321/sf) - 3,662 sf/built 1998/3 Beds/2.5 Bath (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International)

3508 E Secret Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718, in the Canyons - $4,200,000 ($661/sf) – 6,356 sf/built 2005/4 Beds/5 Baths + 2 half baths. Secret Canyon is returning to the market after a not quite 3 month hiatus. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International)

see them here> the new listings

Yearning for a little more room to roam, step right this way;
6636 E River Heights Place Tucson, AZ 85750 – a large compound encompassing a 6,599 sf main house, a 2764 sf second home and a 2007 sf guest house, totaling 11,133 sf. That’s 9 bedrooms & 9 baths of home sweet homes on 5 hilltop acres with big time mountain and city views. It dropped from $2,390,000 to $1,999,000 today.

(listed by Long Realty)

And it looks like they may be getting serious over at 1340 E Calle Mariposa , Tucson, AZ 85718 – that’s in Shadow Hills.
After holding out for $795,000 since May 2009, they’ve now taken a giant step in the right direction, dropping to $675,000 ($180/sf)
(listed by Long Realty)

And 7051 E EAGLE POINT Drive Tucson, AZ 85750, listed at $1,495,000 and a short sale up in the Mountain estates of Ventana shows up today as Pending COE. That tells us that all issues have been resolved and it’s now clear sailing to COE. Congrats! (listed by Long Realty) Eagle Point was listed for about 3 months at $2,499,000 and then, on August 21st, was reduced to a $1,495,000 short sale. And within a few days in was in contract, but those buyers couldn’t pull off the financing, so it went back on the market and within 2 weeks was back in escrow. Quick work for any $1.5 listing these days, but lightning fast for a short sale.

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a very pleasant surprise

When I got home this afternoon I found a Fed Ex envelope from Chase Mortgage inviting me to re-finance my existing 6+% Chase mortgage to a 4.5% Chase mortgage – with no fees, no closing costs, none at all, not a red cent, and no appraisal, and no application other than a few questions over the phone. (this, of course, is something that I’ve been meaning to do but kept putting off because, like everyone else, who wants to go through the rigmarole of applying for a new mortgage) So talk about ‘too good to be true’.

But what the hell, I called anyway. And after about 2 minutes talking with Stu, the Chase guy, and confirming the terms and answering just a few questions, I was on my way to a new mortgage at about
1 3/4% less than my existing mortgage - with nothing more to do but sign on the dotted line in a few weeks.

And when it was all done and I thanked Stu, he said no, no, thank you for being a good customer of Chase, you earned it.
He said, this is one for the good guys – I swear that’s what he said - the people who pay their bills on time.

I’m stunned and very pleased.

thanks very much, but we have more than enough of our own

For some reason, a house located at 8229 N 54th Street Paradise Valley, AZ 85253 was listed today, for $2,700,000,  as being for sale in the Tucson Foothills. Even though it is located about 100 miles north of the Tucson Foothills in Paradise Valley, AZ.
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

to contract to contract in Pima Canyon

7264 N Ancient Mesa Place in Pima Canyon is reported under contract today. And the thing is, Ancient Mesa, which was listed just 21 days ago, is by far the newest listing in PC and also one of the newest luxury listings in the entire foothills.

This isn’t quite earth shattering news, but it is the first home to go to contract in PC since July 7th and, is now, the highest priced home in contract in the entire foothills.

And I’m betting that the speedy contract had something to do with the PRICE, PRICE, PRICE - $1,595,000, $299/sf, and that’s for a nearly new house in PC. Hello – are you listening, you 19 other big ticket homes for sale in PC and 70 others scattered throughout the foothills.

7264 N Ancient Mesa Place Tucson, AZ 85718

Hint, there’s also an interesting history here, but more on that later, unless you can tell us about it now.

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the envelope please

for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills

priced at $0 to $599,999 there are 48 homes in contract and 256 remaining for sale. So 19% of the homes for sale are in contract

at $600,000 to $999,999 there are 18 in contract and 107 for sale. that’s about 17% of the number for sale in contract

and, drum roll please,
at $1,000,000 & up there are 2 in contract and 99 remaining for sale.
so, uh, 2% of the number for sale are in contract.
And it should be noted that those 2 are listed at $1.3 or less. So nothing, nada, zip, zilch, in contract above $1.3. While those for sale run to $6.5 and from there take a giant leap to $13,500,000.

Now, just for fun, if those contracts were sales and we were computing months of inventory by price range, it would look like this;

inventory at $0 to $599k would be a nice lean 5.3 months
while at $600 to $999k we’d be looking at a perfectly normal 6 month supply. And for our high-end homes, at a 49 month supply, we’d have more than enough to go around and around again and again

Of course, while all the homes in contract won’t make it to COE, current contracts are an awfully good indication of where the money is going and where it’s not, at this very moment.

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fueled by foreclosures

the Phoenix real estate market is going great guns

Read all about it>
Arizona home sales propped up by investors

why it’s so slow that

while I have lots of time on my hands, there’s absolutely nothing happening to write about

the lack of activity feels more like mid July than mid October

I wonder if home owners who were planning to bring their homes to market at this time have decided to wait. The question is, to wait for what.

a three minute egg takes six minutes

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zillowed

A friend of mine was looking to refinance the mortgage on his primary residence here in the Tucson Foothills. And since he was a 30+ year customer of Bank of America - where he had his existing mortgage, plus a HELOC, plus a few other personal and business accounts – it made sense to talk first with BofA.

So he called the BofA 800 number, explained that he wanted to refinance, gave them his info and after being put on hold for a couple of minutes was informed that based on the current value of his home, $550,000, according to zillow, … At that point my friend interrupted the BofA representative and informed him that his home was worth at least $800k, not $550,000 – there must be some mistake, no said Mr BofA, according to zill …

Being familiar with Zillow’s so called valuations, and not wanting to waste anymore time, my friend thanked the BofA guy and hung up.  But then, to add insult to injury, a few days later he got a letter from BofA informing him that, based on his new and lower valuation, his HELOC was now frozen. Needless to say, my friend went ape $%$%@$.  When that passed he called Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo took his information, got the ball rolling and set up an  actual old fashioned appraisal. You know, the kind where a living and breathing appraiser actually visits the house and looks things over before taking a stab at what it’s worth.

And guess what. That appraisal came in at $850,000 – and the re-fi went thru without a hitch. He then proceeded to pay off his BofA HELOC and took a new one with Wells Fargo – and then he cancelled his other BofA accounts and opened new ones with Wells Fargo too. To hell with BofA and good riddance to Zillow.

price cuts today

A hefty cut for 4085 N Black Rock Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750 - 
it went from from $1,249,000 to $975,000

3178 E Corte De Andalucia, Tucson, AZ 85718 cut $50 thou, from $1,099,000 to $1,049,000

And celebrating one year on the market, 7411 N Catalina Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 had its first ever price cut today, dropping from $2,649,000 to $2,350,000

6060 N Via Tres Patos, Tucson, AZ 85750 is, after dropping $70k, down to $719,900

And after just 26 days on the market, 5189 N VIA VELAZQUEZ, Tucson, AZ 85750 has dipped to $599 from $625

Price cuts today

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the real deal

5905 N Camino Escalante, a very recent foreclosure is now available for $950,000 ($198/sf)
(listed by Win3 Realty) (foreclosed by Wells Fargo, who has not halted foreclosures)

Escalante is a magnificent 2007 built mud adobe hacienda - 4790 sf,
3 Bedrooms + a large library/office, 3 baths, 3 car, pool, on a nicely elevated city view lot. (and with no visible damage by the  previous owners)

**these pictures are from the previous, normal/non-foreclosure listing for this property - because I like them better and I was pretty sure you would too**

This was on the market as a normal sale starting last October at $1,625,000. Then it was off for four months and returned in June for one month at $925,000, and immediately went to contract but, too late, it was yanked by the bank.

If this is your style, it is, unquestionably, a screaming deal.
Under market value by a conservative $200k, I’d guess.
This type and quality of construction does not come along very often, and never at this  price. All the walls, exterior and interior, are a least a foot thick solid new adobe. The ceilings are all wood beamed, all the doors, windows, cabinets, etc are solid premium quality.

5905 N Camino Escalante Tucson, AZ 85718

Call, if you’re interested I’d love to show it to you.

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what’s doin’

6155 N Whaleback Place was re-listed at $1.650 from $1.750

6426 N Desert Wind Circle was re-listed at $1.695 from $1.750
 
6433 N Placita Del Zopilote dropped to $1.299 from $1.350

6651 N Placita De Chubasco dropped to $1.995 from $2.1mil

6500 N Saint Andrews Drive dropped to $799,900 from $829,900
(St Andrews, a Skyline CC spec, foreclosure, is celebrating 4 years on the market this month. It started at $2.1mil)

5201 N Via Condesa sold one year ago for $559,550 and is back on today for $649,000. Definitely not the new math

4455 E Coronado Drive sold in 05 for $1,185,000 is back on for $1,425,000

A grand total of four contracts since Monday, @ $289,300, $289,000, $339,000 & $499,900

A new listing in Cat 10 - 3252 E Camino Boscaje Escondido @ $2.2mil

Not much. It feels more like July than October.
But let’s see what tomorrow brings,

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from bad to worse at a million $$ and up

there are 99 homes listed for sale in the Tucson Foothills at a million $$ and up.

At,
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000 there are 52 for sale
2 are in contract
8 sold in the last 90 days
1 sold in the last 30 days
So based on sales for the last 90 days we’re looking at about 19 months of inventory. While based on the last 30 days sales we’re at 52 months of inventory. Take your pick, either way it’s not a pretty picture.

$1,500,001 to $2,000,000 there are 18 for sale
0 are in contract
2 sold in the last 90 days
0 sold in the last 30 days
Based on sales for the last 90 days there is about 27 months of inventory. At 30 days, with no sales, the months inventory cannot be determined.

$2,000,001 to $2,500,000 there are 12 for sale
0 are in contract
1 sold in the last 90 days
the same 1 sold in the last 30 days
With 1 sold and 12 for sale we’re looking at 12 months inventory based on the last 30 days and 36 months inventory based on the last 90 days sales. And with nothing in contract the immediate future does not look terribly bright for this price range.

$2,500,001 to $3,000,000 there are 7 for sale
0 are in contract
0 sold in the last 90 days
0 sold in the last 30 days
On the bright side, this little slice of the market has nowhere to go but up.

$3,000,001 & UP there are 10 for sale
0 are in contract
0 sold in the last 90 days
0 sold in the last 30 days
ditto
While this price range may seem hopelessly hopeless, last summer, out of nowhere, there were two sales over $3.0. One was up in Cobo Catalina Hills for $3.1, the other was in La Paloma Estates for $3.250.
So it could happen. But even being carelessly and wildly optimistic, it’s difficult to imagine 10 sales, or even 5 sales, anytime soon at $3.0.

So what are the 99 owner/sellers of these homes thinking.
What are they holding out for. And why aren’t they doing their very best to lower their prices and beat the pants off their competitors. Why aren’t they doing everything they can to lure the few upper-end buyers that are out there, to their homes. Are they are holding out because they think this market is going to measurably improve anytime soon.

Yes, the stock market is up and if it holds that may spur a few sales. It may. And when the winter visitors arrive in January & February there will probably be some more sales. But those are just blips in the market, don’t mistake them for game changers. They’re not.

If you are a home seller or an agent representing a seller and you believe that this upper-end market is going to improve anytime soon,  please, we’d love to hear all about it. Actually we’d love to hear whatever you have to say about the home market in the foothills and sales, etc. Speak out, Write in.

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to find your Foothills home

you may regard the tax assessor as the most trusted source, but they’re not infallible

Recently, just after getting a signed contract on million $$+ foothills home, I was on the Pima County tax assessors site verifying some basic information about the house.

Going down the list I first saw that the square footage quoted by the assessor was less than that shown on the listing – which listed the floor plan company as the source of the square footage. That’s quite common and I’d already discussed it with the buyers and they weren’t too concerned. So no big worries there. But the next item was of serious concern.

The assessor listed the house, which was just two years old, as being WOOD FRAME construction. While the listing showed it as MASONRY construction. And our understanding, of course, was that it was MASONRY. Because, aside from the listing, the times we visited the house, I had pointedly asked the owner/agent what type of construction, and was told, pointedly, that it was MASONRY. And as we walked around the outside of the house I’d tapped and knocked here and there and it all felt and sounded like MASONRY. MASONRY feels and sounds solid, while wood frame feels and sounds hollow.

Nevertheless, I immediately emailed the tax assessor info to the agent/owner, with a copy to my buyers, and asked her to please explain - MASONRY or WOOD FRAME. She insisted that it was MASONRY construction. No question. I talked with my buyers and conveyed what I knew and what I was told and they were OK with it. And later our home inspector confirmed, without a doubt, that it was MASONRY construction and not WOOD FRAME.

The tax assessor had it wrong. And again, this was for a two year old house, not something that was built 30, 40 or more years ago when record keeping, and the maintenance of those records, may have been lax or lost.

There are a lot of ways that a deal can fall apart, and certainly I’m not infallible either, but mistaking wood frame for masonry construction is, hopefully, not one of them.

If you’ve run into your own discrepancies with the tax assessor, I’m sure we’d all like to hear about it and learn from it.

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when was the last time a house went to contract in

Pima Canyon
How does July 7th sound. And that was for the foreclosure at 2112 E Sentry Ridge that had been listed as high as $5.9 and was eventually foreclosed and listed for $1,999,999 & sold quick-as-a-bunny for $1.765. Two other sold in the  last six, one for $1.9 the other for $2.0(20 for sale in PC, running the gamut in size, style and $$$$ from $898,500 to $4,950,000)

Cobblestone
July was good to Cobblestone too. They had contract for a $999,000 listing that sold for $887,500 that, back in the day, was asking $1,425,000. Two other sales up there this year; one for $1.1 in January and a short sale that went for a million even in August.  
(just 2 for sale in Cobblestone - $1,399,000 & $2,649,000), then again, both are higher $$$ than anything sold in there this year.

Cat 10
Cat 10 sure has pulled out of its slump recently. The last contract in there was last week. That was on a $1,990,000 listing where I represented the buyers. Unfortunately the deal fell through. The week before that 3860 E SUMO NOVENO went to contract listed at the bargain price of $1,195,000 – it was scooped up within 36 hours of showing its face in the MLS. Before that, in mid August, 4440 N Via De La Granja and in mid July  4705 N Via De La Granja went to contract and sold for $1,450,000 in August.
( still a hefty supply though, 11 for sale in Cat 10 )

La Paloma Estates
Finally. Until 2 weeks ago, when 5730 N Calle Mayapan listed at $925k went to contract, there’d been nothing in contract in the big La P since last December. Yes, that’s December 09. At that time 3407 E Via Palomita sold for $975k.
(5 for sale in the big La P, and a few have been at it for a many moons)

The rest of La Paloma
That is, the ridge estates, etc, located on the north side of Sunrise thru the Via Palomita gate.  There is nothing under contract at the moment in this section of La P, on the other hand 5 have sold in the last six months and with just two for sale, supplies are mighty thin. 
So this La Paloma is doing just fine, thank you. 

Hacienda del Sol Estates
One month ago –  5106 N Avenida De Castilla, the house of many steps and a short sale listed for $549,000, down from its all time high of $1,199,000 – went to contract. And it looks like it’s sticking.
Before that, 4941 N Avenida De Castilla went to contract in late July and closed on 9/1 for $580,000. Before that, 4911 N Avenida De Castilla went to contract in April and closed in late May for $600k as a foreclosure. And at about the same time 4920 N Avenida De Vizcaya went to contract at $899,000 and sold for $753,500. So some sales in HdS, but at the very low end of the scale. ( 4 homes currently for sale )

the Canyons
Nothing in contract or sold since June 08.
(but 6 for sale, from $1,990,000 to $13,500,000 -Get the picture)

Alta Vista 
6260 E Placita Del Nido, a short sale originally priced at $1,189,000, went to contract in mid September and closed the other day for $850,000. And 5855 E Placita De La Zuerencia went to contract in August and closed in early September for $1.2.
Before that it looks like 6542 N Placita Alta Reposa is next in line. It went to contract in May at $975 and closed in June at $900K.
With just 4 sales in six months & ( no waiting, 17 for sale in Alta Vista ) we’re looking at about a 2 year supply of homes in AV.

Cimarron
Cimarron has been hanging in there, though sales have slowed lately.  6279 E Placita Chiripa went to contract in early July at $525k and closed in early August at $500k. 5936 N Via Verdosa went to contract in early June at $849 and closed in late June at $730.  + 4 other sales earlier this year. Yeah Cimarron. (but there are still 12 for sale in Cimarron)

Shadow Hills
Shadow Hills on the other hand has been a beehive of activity.
6100 N Camino Arturo & 1781 E Placita Padre Isidoro both went to contract on 9/23. Plus, get this, 12 sales in Shadow Hills in the last 6 months – with the latest closed last week. (there are 14 homes for sale in Shadow Hills – so a relatively lean 7 month supply)

Fairfield
Since Fairfield has a fair (ha-ha) number of townhomes, in addition to single family homes, I’ve included both in this tally. Doing so, we see there are 5 homes currently  in contract, with latest having been snagged on 9/29. And 18 sold in the last six months. (and 35 for sale in Fairfield, including townhomes & sfr’s) So quite a few sales but also a lot for sale = a one year supply in the ever-popular Fairfield.

Ventana Canyon Estates
Zero under contract at the moment in the big V. And the last and only contract & sale in the last 6 months was for an even million in May. There are, however, should the pendulum swing and buyers suddenly appear, 10 for sale in Ventana Canyon Estates – ranging from $849,000 to $1,999,900. 

Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates
And ending in an unexpected sweet spot, the mountain estates are going great guns lately. There’s one home in contract at the moment at around $1.5 and three others have sold this year – @ $1.7, $2.2 & another just last week for $2.1. (and, better yet, just 3 for sale)
The listing link will show 4 for sale but the one on Eagle Ridge is a short sale that is in contract but not yet totally nailed down.

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don’t be fooled, things aren’t always what they seem

Take this for instance. It’s a house with an upstairs and a downstairs that’s been listed for about a year as a 2 story house. 

But now - and who knows why, but I’ll take a wild guess, maybe because it hasn’t sold as a 2 story - they want to give it a shot as a
1 story. So, Presto!, through some real estate magic, wizardry or witchcraft, it has been transformed from a 2 story house into a
1 story house. Hey, anything’s possible.

If you’re out there looking, here’s what to look for; – it will be a house with an upstairs and a downstairs, and a stairway connecting those two levels. Got that.
OK, so when you come across that upstairs/downstairs thing, right away you’re gonna be thinking- 2 story.  But don’t, don’t be fooled and start jumping to conclusions. Look at the listing. If the listing says 1 story, then it’s a 1 story. Happy hunting.

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to find your 1, 2 or 3 story Foothills home

with just 20 SFR foreclosures for sale

the fact that the Largest U.S. Bank Halts Foreclosures in All States shouldn’t make much of a difference here in the Tucson Foothills. Of course if it drags on and would-be foreclosure homes start piling up, then that’s a different story.  

See all 20 here> Tucson Foothills Foreclosures/REO

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a quick short sale

In Alta Vista, 6260 E Placita Del Nido closed escrow today for $850,000 ($210/sf). It was first listed in January for $1,189,000 as a normal sale. Then in May, perhaps when it became obvious that a million + was not in the cards, it was listed as a short sale and went to contract in early August – so about two months from contract to close. Lightning fast for a short sale. (Listed by Long Realty)

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today

5261 N Calle Oreo, which sold for $825,000 in 06 is now available for $649,900 ($191/sf). It debuted in July at $775,000.
5261 N Calle Oreo Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

5450 N Calle La Cima is at it again. La Cima, a 1944 Joesler, burnt adobe construction, 4075 sf, 6 Beds, 5 Baths on 1 acre is listed today at its all time low of $795,000. La Cima, which expired in the spring at $849,000, has been for sale in the last few years for as much as $1,495,000. An earlier listing described it as ‘… WITH CLEAN AND SIMPLE LINES IS A BLANK SLATE FOR YOU TO MAKE YOUR OWN.’ I like that description.  (listed by Sinclair Associates)
5450 N Calle La Cima Tucson, AZ 85718

And if you’re in the 5 million$$ range and can’t find a thing, this may be your lucky day. 7557 N Secret Canyon Drive is new on the market today. It’s in the Canyons, built 2002 on 2.98 acres/concrete block construction/ 5,238 sf/5 Beds/5.5 baths/2 story/pool-spa/asking $5,500,000 ($1,050/sf). 7557 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty).

With this latest listing we’re up to 4 homes for sale on Secret Canyon Drive alone & six total in the Canyons. An impressive lineup. But none have sold so far this year & none sold last year either. If you must know, the last sale up there was in July 2008.

And in Cat 7, after many moons 5302 N Via Condesa has found a happy buyer. Via Condesa, first listed in October 08 for $755,000, went to contract today at $575,000.
5302 N Via Condesa Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

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priced to sell or priced to sit

It’s no wonder the bottom third of the market – up to about $600k – is doing so well. They keep cutting prices until they sell. Imagine that.

Here’s a recent example; In the last few days 12 homes in the  foothills have had price cuts,  and 10 of them were on homes priced up to $600k, then one at $650 and one at $740. That’s it.

And, despite extremely sluggish sales combined with about two years worth of inventory, not one house at a million or more had a price cut. So it’s no wonder that market is going nowhere. 

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the last 10 days

When I want to get the pulse of the market, I like to look at which homes buyers are putting in contract - and how many and at what price.

In last 10 days 42 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills. Here’s how they break down by price;

27 are priced $0 to $599,999/ and 248 remain for sale
so 11 % of the homes for sale in this price range just went to contract

13 are priced $600,000 to $999,999/ and 100 remain for sale 
that’s 13% of the homes for sale in this price range just went to contract

2 are priced $1,000,000 or more/ and 96 remain for sale
so just 2% of the homes for sale in this price range went to contract

So the low end is still beating the pants off everything else, while the high-end is pretty much going nowhere.
--------------------------------------------------------------

And just for the heck of it, looking at sales in the last 10 days,
we have;

8 sold from $0 to $599,999 = 10 months inventory
2 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 = 16 months inventory
2 sold from $1,000 & up = 16 months inventory

That’s a better reading for the high-end, and a less good reading for the low end than we’ve seen in some time. But it’s just 10 days worth of numbers, which is interesting and all that but not really worth hanging your hat on.

Also in the last 10 days, if you haven't seen the much ballyhooed quote from John Paulson, the billionaire hedge funder, here it is.

“If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one. And if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy one.”
– John Paulson 9/27/2010

I picked it up from a Forbes blog

your guess is as good as mine

Remember 5910 N Mina Vista. The spec home that started life in 2007 listed at $1,795,000. The one that, after many moons and many price cuts, finally got down to $1,160,000 and went to contract and sold this past April for a cool $1,000,000, as a short sale. Yeah, that Mina Vista. 

Well who knows what, but apparently something’s happened because it’s back on the market today at $1,100,000 ($213/sf).

So if you missed it then, here it is again > 5910 N Mina Vista Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

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under contract in 3 days

Priced right, and we’re seeing more and more of it lately, it can happen.

It just happened to 7144 N Lemmon Rock Circle. Listed on 9/14 it went to contract on 9/17 and is today reported as Pending.
So inspection issues are presumably over and done with, and it’s sailing toward the coast of COE. Lemon Rock was listed for
$719,000 ($246/sf).

And of course if you’re a buyer you need to be able to recognize a good house at a good price when one comes along. And be ready to move on it. Because if you don’t, someone else will.

7144 N Lemmon Rock Circle
(Listed By Long Realty)

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talk about bad timing

Built in 1968, 4420 N Alvernon Way was a one-owner home.
Then, of all times,  it was listed for sale for the first time ever on September 14, 2008. Yes, that September 14th. Back then it was listed for $725,000, but didn’t go to contract until today when it was down to $359,900 ($94/sf).
And according to the listing it is not a short sale or a foreclosure.
Just a victim of awful timing and bad pricing.
4420 N Alvernon Way 
(now Listed by Long Realty)

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yet another fly in the ointment

A major title insurance company has stopped insuring homes foreclosed by JPMorgan Chase, another sign that the controversy over the legal practices of the big lenders is starting to influence the housing market.'

The company, Old Republic National Title Insurance, told its agents Friday that it would not write policies on foreclosed Chase properties until “the objectionable issues have been resolved,” according to a memorandum sent out by the firm’s underwriting department.

From the NYTimes.com
Read all about it > Company Stops Insuring Titles in Chase Foreclosures

September home sales

or it’s beginning to look a lot like 2003.

September	# Sold	Avg Sold $	Med Sold $	Avg $/sf	@ $1.0 up
2010	42	$463,250	$360,500	$155	3 sold
2009	48	$540,780	$420,000	$173	4 sold
2008	30	$525,549	$485,000	$194	1 sold
2007	43	$775,493	$667,500	$247	8 sold
2006	37	$622,865	$531,000	$225	5 sold
2005	50	$612,636	$524,000	$221	6 sold
2004	72	$519,599	$439,500	$174	5 sold
2003	98	$430,131	$362,500	$152	4 sold

Pricewise, September 2010 and September 2003 bear a striking resemblance. But at least in 03, 98 homes sold, while just 42 sold this September. And it wasn’t too long ago that I remarked about how prices had passed 03 levels and were a lot closer to 04. Not no more they’re not.

And compared to August, with 51 sold at - $509,541/$380,000/$170 – September was a big step backward.

And, worse yet, average prices for September are lower than for any other month this year – July was $490,823, June - $482,010, May was awfully close at $467,971, but April was $514,715, and March - $558,571, February was $592,330, and January came in at $530,899.

So is this what the bottom of the barrel looks like?

(these numbers are for single family home sales in the Tucson Foothills, aka, the Catalina Foothills, only)

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someone couldn’t resist

It’s reported that 3900 N Camino Blanco, the 10,000 sf spec home that’s also a foreclosure went to contract today, once again. Yes Camino Blanco has been down this road before. Actually, Camino Blanco has been down many roads before. So I hope this one sticks.

It started in 07 as a brand-spanking new spec looking for $3,400,000. As it went to escrow today it was at $749,800 or 76 bucks a sf.

Because I was asked to I showed Camino Blanco a while ago.
But I also pointed out the reasons why I didn’t think, even at $76/sf, that it was a particularly good buy for them. And they took a pass.

3900 N Camino Blanco Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Liberty Properties & Associate)

slam-bam

price it right, sell it fast and move on, even in today’s market.

5327 N Ventana Overlook Place – was listed for $850,000 on 8/6 -went to contract on 8/13 and closed escrow today at $825,000.

5327 N Ventana Overlook Place Tucson, AZ 85750

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'I feel the property is worth every penny.'

Sound familiar. There’s a very good piece in today’s Wall Street Journal about the upper and ultra upper end of the real estate market. More upper than we generally get here in the Foothills but, apparently, subject to the same kind of holdout mentality.

From WSJ.com > The Holdouts

Some highlights;

Some of the nation's wealthiest home sellers refuse to lower their asking prices. 'I feel the property is worth every penny.'

More than four years after the housing market peaked, many of the nation's wealthiest homeowners are slashing prices in earnest.

Then there are the ultimate holdouts: a rarefied slice of extremely wealthy sellers who are holding the line on today's deal-making, price-slashing mentality. Even as their properties have lingered on the market, these sellers haven't budged on initial asking prices, some of which were set in the waning days of the housing bubble.

With housing prices off about 28% from their peak in 2006 according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, some real estate agents say waiting is a risky strategy. "Everyone, from bottom to top, got hurt in the financial panic, and it's reflected in the high-end of the housing market being frozen," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. He adds that price declines, originally confined to the bottom of the market, have begun migrating upward.

"We've never been in a more price-sensitive market," says Janet Owen of Sudler Sotheby's International Realty, who recently got the listing for the Chicago mansion of J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon. Originally listed for $13.5 million in 2007, the home as of August was listed at $6.95 million. It went into contract in late September. "The smart sellers respond to the market," Ms. Owen says.

While many home sellers can be slow to adjust to the market, the very wealthy can be the slowest of all. "That stratum of the population is not impervious to what's happening in the market, but they operate by their own set of dynamics," says Sam Khater, senior economist at real-estate research firm CoreLogic.

Still, it's a rule of thumb that the longer a listing lingers, the less desirable it often seems to buyers. For some of these holdouts, brokers have masked length of time "on market" by avoiding officially listing them or yanking them on and off multiple-listing services.
Drew Mandile of Sotheby's International Realty, who represents Mr. Saperstein's equestrian estate, says he and his colleague "go dumb" any time a prospective buyer asks how long the property has been for sale. Now that, does sound faintly familiar.

Read all about it > The Holdouts