The Catalina Foothills

someone stole this house

5905 N Camino Escalante, a foreclosure, recently listed at the ridiculously low price of $740,000 ($154/sf) finally went to contract today. Cmo Escalante is a 2007 built adobe hacienda (a fortress really) with massive adobe walls inside and out, tall wood beamed ceilings, concrete floors and solid wood windows and doors. Gorgeous, built to last forever and very efficient. At 4790 sf on one acre in the old foothills (the acre alone sold for $340k) it would take at least $1.5mil to put it together.  These pictures are from the previous, non-foreclosure, listing,
but the house today is essentially the same, no damage, minus the furniture, decor.
(listed by Win3 Realty) 

This is a special house and I’m sorry that I wasn’t able to find a buyer for it myself.

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at long last, a contract

on the market since 08 when it was first listed for $2,590,000,  5151 N Calle Ladero went to contract yesterday off a $1,375,000 list price, and apparently as a short sale. Nevertheless, it’s an impressive property that feels more like an estate in Beverly Hills than what you’d expect to find in the old pueblo.

It is, or was, also for sale for $1,750,000, which included 4.3 acres vs the $1,375,000 price with just 1.19 acres. If money were no object I’d have gone for the extra acreage. But who wouldn’t.

Worth noting is that Calle Ladero last sold for $2,200,000 in 2005 with 5.5 acres. And when it went on the market in 08, for $2,590,000, it included just one acre.

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why buyers don’t take list prices too seriously,

and other quirks of the system.

Here, check out the 39 homes that sold for a million $$$ or more in the Tucson Foothills this year – and see what they were originally listed for vs what they eventually sold for – and you’ll see why buyers take list prices with a big grain of salt. Plus, see what the % of sold price to list price, as published, is actually showing you and, what it’s not showing you.

Here are the numbers that you’ll see along with each property;
original list price - list price at time of sale - sold price 
+ here and there, the % of sold price/original list price (% sp/olp)

off we go,

6830 N Solaz Cuarto
$1,050,000 > $1,050,000 > $1,050,000 – (100%)
(Ok, so that’s not such a good one to start out with, but hang in there and you’ll see what I mean)

4200 N Painted Quail Place
$1,950,000 > $1,095,000 > $1,050,000 - (54%)
*using only the list price at the time of sale, the mls will report this home as having sold for 95% of list price ($1,050,000/$1,095,000 = 95%)  And while that is  technically correct, it is also, at best, only part of the picture. And it’s the part that ignores the fact that this and other homes have been reduced and reduced  before they reached a marketable price. If you’re a buyer or a seller, wouldn’t you want to have a more complete picture of the market, including  the good, the bad and the ugly???

6301 N Placita Arista
$2,395,000 > $1,100,000 > $1,100,000 (sold for 46% of original list price)
*yet the mls reports this house as having sold for 100% of list price – is that funny or what

2801 E Plaza Encantada
$1,149,000 > $1,149,000 > $1,149,000 (100%)

5910 N Mina Vista
$1,795,000 > $1,100,000 > $1,000,000 (56%)

6440 N Desert Wind Circle
$1,295,000 – $1,195,000 – $1,025,000 (79%)

6480 N Via Del Emigrado
$1,295,000 > $1,195,000 > $1,050,000

3860 E SUMO NOVENO
$1,195,000 > $1,195,000 > $1,210,000 (101%)
*this went to contract within 36 hours of being listed

6050 N Desert Sun Court
$1,198,000 > $1,198,000 > $1,000,000

3250 E Sun Cloud Place
$1,200,000 > $1,224,600 > $1,000,000 (83%)

1887 E Desert Garden Drive
$1,495,000 > $1,250,000 > $1,075,000

3550 E Entrada Del Sol
$1,450,000 > $1,295,000 > $1,030,000 (71% sp/olp)

5855 E Placita De La Zuerencia
$1,800,000 > $1,295,000 > $1,200,000 (67%)

4845 N Camino Escuela
$1,300,000 – $1,300,000 – $1,000,000 (77%)

7441 N Moon Spirit Lane
$1,350,000 – $1,350,000 – $1,100,000

3771 E Sumo Octavo
$2,195,000 – $1,350,000 – $1,200,000 (55%)

6640 N Los Leones Drive
$1,450,000 – $1,350,000 – $1,175,000

2436 E PLACITA DE LA VICTORIA
$1,800,000 – $1,385,000 – $1,150,000

6363 E Paseo Otono
$1,395,000 – $1,395,000 – $1,250,000 (90%)

6652 N Avenida De Posada
$1,895,000 – $1,495,000 – $1,420,000 (sold for 75% of original list price - which tells you something about the market - but reported by the mls as selling for 95% of list – which, if nothing else, certainly makes things look a whole lot better than they really are)

7021 N Mission Hill Lane
$2,495,000 – $1,495,000 – $1,395,000 (56%)

4630 E Palais Place
$1,495,000 – $1,495,000 - $1,100,000 (74%)

7051 E EAGLE POINT Drive
$2,499,000 – $1,495,000 – $1,350,000 (54%)
*this will show in mls reports as having sold at 90% of list price, gosh!

4150 E La Paloma Drive
$2,450,000 – $1,500,000 – $1,100,000 (sold for 45% of olp)

5280 E Mission Hill Drive
$2,900,000 – $1,500,000 – $1,220,000 (sold for 42% of olp)

4705 N Via De La Granja
$1,895,000 – $1,585,000 – $1,450,000

7264 N Ancient Mesa Place
$1,595,000 – $1,595,000 – $1,475,000

6460 N Thimble Pass
$1,997,500 – $1,599,000 - $1,475,000

6609 N Eagle Ridge Drive
$1,999,999 – $1,749,000 – $1,700,000

6954 E Gate Ridge Place
$2,150,000 -  $1,825,000 – $1,700,000

2192 E Desert Garden Drive
$2,499,000 – $1,995,000 – $1,800,000

2112 E Sentry Ridge Court
$5,900,000 – $1,999,000 – $1,765,000
*wow, that sold for barely 30% of its original list price – yet the mls will
report it as having sold for 88% of list price ($1,765,000/$1,999,000 = 88%)

5227 N Campbell Avenue
$2,695,000 – $1,999,000 – $1,600,000

1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Place
$3,200,000 – $1,999,999 – $1,900,000 (% of sp/olp is 59%)
*this, however, will be reported as selling for 95% of list price. Period.

3401 E Camino A Los Vientos
$2,900,000 – $2,000,000 – $1,925,000

3601 E Lone Hill Place
$2,350,000 – $2,200,000 – $1,800,000

7755 N Ancient Indian Drive
$2,795,000 – $2,250,000 – $2,000,000

6755 N Hole In The Wall Way
$3,200,000 – $2,495,000 – $2,200,000

7203 E Stone Canyon
$2,495,000 – $2,495,000 – $2,100,000 (84%)

Because so many list prices were still so unrealistic this past year, buyers continued to ignore them. Because buyers know that if they can’t come to agreement with sellers today, that sooner or later the prices of those homes are going to come down. So they’ll wait.

It’s a fact. Those 39 homes are all the homes that sold in the foothills this year at million or more. Look at the huge gap between where most of the homes were listed and where they eventually sold. And these are the lucky ones that did sell.

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Tucson Foothills sales at a million and up

Here’s a look at how many homes sold so far this year, for $1,000,000 or more, compared with years past.

So far this year 39 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills for $1mil or more. But there are 4 still in escrow so we may squeak out another couple of sales before the year is up. And btw, 6 of the 39 sold were short sales or foreclosures.

Only 40 sold last year, so we’ll match or just beat that sorry record, while the high point was 125 sold in 06. And right now, with the sad state of the upper market, selling 125 (in one year) seems like a complete fairy tale. But because they were selling like crazy back then, you can see why everyone and their brother was slapping up big spec homes where ever they could squeeze one in.

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coming into the stretch

Here’s what it looks like for Tucson Foothills home sales and sold prices this year, compared with years past.

After 4 years of steeply declining home sales, we’re finally seeing a measureable increase this year. 532 homes sold last year and so far this year we’re at 574. And with 59 in escrow we may well see another 15 to 20 sales before the end of the year. So maybe a 10 – 12% increase in sales over 09 and 08.

 

Also, of the 574 sold, 77 were foreclosures & 45 were short sales – 21%.

 

There’s been so such uptick with prices, which have yet to show a sustained turn around or even a sustained bottom.  Though I noted in my latest monthly report; November’s average sale price was better than every month since March and except for last month, the median is higher than every month since April > November home sales in the Tucson Foothills <

I’ll be tweaking these numbers when all sales are finalized in the new year.

(these numbers are for single family homes sold through the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service)

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economists are increasingly upbeat about the outlook

The New York Times
Eighteen months after the recession officially ended, the government’s latest measures to bolster the economy have led many forecasters and policy makers to express new optimism that the recovery will gain substantial momentum in 2011.

Economists in universities and on Wall Street have raised their growth projections for next year. Retail sales, industrial production and factory orders are on the upswing, and new claims for unemployment benefits are trending downward.

Read all about it> Experts Citing Rising Hopes for Recovery

And not a moment too soon. If things do improve then consumers moods and attitudes will also improve and there should be less uncertainty. And that is bound to have a positive effect on our real estate market here in the Foothills.

Any thoughts.

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Merry Christmas

sold for $810 in 04, $839 in 05 and $700 in 2010

Selling for $700k they got off pretty easy, that’s just 16.5% less than they paid in 05

 4694 N Rocky Crest Place.

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timing is everything

5181 N CIRCULO SOBRIO was purchased on June 15, 2007 for $1,235,000.
That was about two months before the mortgage meltdown, when everything started to seriously hit the fan.

Then a little more than a year later, on September 16, 2008 – the day after Lehman fell - it was listed for sale for $1,269,000.

But nothing happened, so it was off the market for a while. Then it was re-listed this September for $999,000 and reduced today to $895,000 ($261/sf). That’s in Cat 10.

Now $340,000, or 27.5%, less than it sold for 3 1/2 years ago.
That’s the market we’re in.

5181 N CIRCULO SOBRIO Tucson, AZ 85718

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the way it used to be in the Tucson Foothills

About two weeks ago I listed a very special and unique property here in the foothills. Now I know you hear that all the time, special and unique, yeah sure, but this one really is. It’s a 1941 Joesler that sits on 14.7 acres in the old Tucson foothills.

The Joesler is a 2600 sf burnt adobe that’s in vintage 1941 condition, with a very nice walled in yard and pool, and 14.7 acres of beautiful, untouched natural desert.  And thanks to a conservation easement written into the deed, none of those 14.7 acres can be split or developed. Ever.

And from 1941 to today it's been just a two owner home. The first owners had it built by Joesler in 41 and used it as a vacation home until they sold it in 1951 to the family that still owns it.

 

As you might guess, when I took the listing I was concerned about finding that very special buyer who would not only appreciate this property for what it is, but also be willing to maintain it as it is, with no hope of ever profiting from it by developing or splitting the land.

But, and this is really a coincidence, at the same time I was also working with a couple from Europe who were looking for a Joesler here in the foothills. But this one is smaller than what they wanted, and aside from whether or not the house and setting would work for them, with the tight restrictions imposed by the easement, it was easy to imagine that they might take a pass.

But after talking to them about it and putting up a bunch of pictures and aerial maps, etc., one of them flew in to spend the day with me. And we walked the land and examined the house pretty carefully and also scrutinized the easement and everything else I could get my hands on that had to do with the property.  And after a lot of looking and weighing and talking, we wrote an offer. And the offer was accepted.

So happily for all, this little corner of the foothills will continue to be the way it used to be, thanks to the people who truly appreciate it for what it is.

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the market, then and now

Over in Ventana 6040 N Desert Sun Court sold for $895,000 in 2004 and was listed in early 2010 for $1,099,000 then $999,000 then $880,00, and so on, and went nowhere until it got down to $649,000 the other day and went to contract today. (listed by Long Realty)

And 6778 N Calle Sin Nombre sold for $742,500 on October 17th, 2008, talk about bad timing. Then it sold again today for $580,000 off a $699,000 list price. (listed by Long Realty) minus another $30k+ in closing costs,

On the other hand 4141 N Quail Canyon Drive sold for $754,000 in 04 and for $875,000 today. (listed by Long Realty) But it was a new house in 04 and the owners put in a pool a spa and I imagine, a lot more. Landscaping, stonework, … who  knows.

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sold (so far) in the 4th quarter

There are 474 single family homes for sale, and since October 1st 
105 homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills. That works out to
an 11 month supply of homes for sale.
Here’s what that supply looks like when it’s broken down by price range,

listed $0 to $599,999 
267 for sale/75 sold = an 8.9 month supply of homes

listed $600,000 to $999,999
116 for sale/25 sold = 11.6 month supply

listed $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
47 for sale/4 sold =  29 month supply

listed $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
17 for sale/1 sold =  42.5 month supply

listed $2,000,000 and UP
24 for sale/0 sold = an endless supply

The supply of homes at the low-end of the market is a tad higher than it’s been lately, but everything else is pretty much the same.

And how well did those 105 homes sell, you know, how close to list price did they get.

Price	# sold	average Original list	average List @ sale	average Sold Price	% of SP/OLP
0-$599	75	$413,594	$379,032	$363,576	88%
600-$999	25	$797,360	$742,956	$699,600	87%
1.0-1.499	4	1,321,250	1,296,250	$1,152,500	87%
1.5-1.999	1	$1,595,000	$1,595,000	$1,475,000	92.5%
$2.0 - up	0	$3,484,506

at 87%, the % of sale price to original list price is off about 8 to 9% from what we would expect to see in a normal market.  Which is further evidence of the very strong buyers market we continue to be in.

Also, unlike the figures published here,  the real estate industry reports the % of SP/LP based solely on the list price at the time of sale – that’s after price reductions and re-listings - disregarding the original list price. Using that method, for instance, they would report the sales noted above at $0-$599 as occurring at 95.9% of list price and those at $1.0 to $1.499 as occurring at 98% of list price.
Does that seem right? I don’t think so. It gives a distorted view of the market, ignoring the fact that homes have been reduced in price, and often for large amounts, before they sell at 95.9% or 98% of list price.

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7 days from contract to close

It can be done. And for a seller who is anxious to move on, knowing that it will be over in 7 days is a very attractive offer.

7800 E Elk Creek Road went to contract on December 2nd and closed escrow December 9th – 7 days start to finish. Of course it has to be a cash sale, you can’t finance a thing like that. I’ve done 12 days, but never 7. 7 is super quick.

Having said that, Elk Creek Road was listed for $255,000 and sold for $250,000.
So there was no great discount. Who knows, maybe the buyer was in a rush. It last sold in 06 for $355,000.

gone in a flash > 7800 E Elk Creek Road

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of course people still want to own

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The American Dream is still alive and kicking, including within immigrant and minority communities, according to a survey from mortgage giant Fannie Mae.

The housing crisis hasn't quenched the homeownership thirst, the company found. More than 51% of people said the bust did not change their willingness to buy a home and an additional 27% said it actually made them more likely to do so.

Read all about it > Housing bust? So what? We still want to own

pitch in on a Tucson Foothills issue

I may be a little late with this, and I apologize for that, but I’ve been crazy busy,

From Will Pew,
District 16 resident and parent
President - Catalina Foothills Association
www.CatalinaFoothillsAssociation.org

Dear neighbor,

Please go to http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/cfsdbus/ and sign the petition asking the CFSD school board to remove the maintenance facility from the proposed new bus bus depot and to address ingress/egress in a manner which is not dependent upon an easement from the Junior League. 

Nowhere in the 2009 bond which voters approved for improvements to the bus facility was a maintenance facility mentioned.  This use is inconsistent with the surrounding properties and does not conform to Pima County Zoning or Pima County's Comprehensive Plan.  If it were any entity other than a school district this use would not be allowed at that site.  It is without question that the drivers deserve more adequate facilities and that is what we, the voters, approved. 

Please take one or two minutes to sign the petition and, as important, forward it to your friends and neighbors (especially those living in district 16) asking them to sign the petition as well (district 16 runs all the way to Sabino Canyon, and is north of River Rd.).  Please note that the website we used to host this petition will ask for a donation after you sign it, your signature will count whether you donate or not, feel free to x-out after signing. 

I sincerely appreciate your time and support.  The school board will be discussing this tomorrow evening (December 14th) at 6:30 pm at CFSD High School.

Thank you!

Will Pew

the highest $/sf sale in Alta Vista in more than a year

6480 N Via Del Emigrado closed escrow the other day for $1,050,000 or $289/sf off a $1,195,000 list after 110 days on market. So a relatively quick sale at a relatively high price. (listed by Long Realty)

Nine homes sold in Alta Vista in the last year and the next highest $/sf sale was at a comparatively measly $212/sf, then one at $211 and  two at $210 and from there it dropped to $199 and below.

And while they did do quite well, considering, they paid $1,275,000 for it in September 08. So they ended up eating a big fat $225K plus commissions and closing costs.  That’s the market, then & now. Bon Appetit!

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the lower-end in the Tucson Foothills

The other day we looked at the upper-end of the real estate market in the Tucson Foothills. And it was for the most part a sobering report, the upper-end in the Tucson Foothills

Hoping for more cheerful results, let’s now drop down a notch and look at the same data - the number of homes currently for sale and the number sold in the  last 6 months, along with average list and sold prices – but in some of the more moderately priced communities and subdivisions in the Tucson Foothills.

Fairfield (the community)
20 for sale/average list = $467,854
5 sold/average sold = $405,220
*although they’re selling for an average of 96.8% of list price in Fairfield (albeit, that’s after 
price reductions) there are relatively few selling compared with the number for sale.
At this rate - with just 5 homes selling/6 month period- Fairfield is stocked with a
2 year supply of homes.

Bonita Ridge
4 for sale/average list = $499,250
1 sold/average sold = $515,000
*once again, going strictly by recent sales numbers, and what else is there to go by, there’s a two year supply of homes in Bonita Ridge.

The Shadows at Sabino
4 for sale/average list = $419,975
0 sold

Ventana Del Rio
2 for sale/average list = $521,450
0 sold

Solace at Sabino
3 for sale/average list = $266,000
1 sold/average sold = $297,000
*not terribly encouraging

Cimarron
14 for sale/average list = $595,621
5 sold/average sold = $495,800
*about an 18 month supply of homes for Cimarron.

Skyline Belair Estates
10 for sale/average list = $505,980
9 sold/average sold = $420,556
*that’s more like it, approximately a 6 month supply of homes. 

Foothills Clusters
8 for sale/average list = $351,211
6 sold/average sold = $290,642
*not bad, about an 8 month supply

Villages 1,2,4 & 5 at La Paloma + Paloma Ridge
6 for sale/average list = $587,633
2 sold/average sold = $540,000

La Paloma, La Paloma Ridge Est, Las Palomitas
6 for sale/average list = $543,317
4 sold/average sold = $440,750
*these are the very desirable little subdivisions on the north side of La Paloma, some of which often edge into the million$$ range, but do not right now – at present a 9 month supply of homes - these and the villages, listed above, are, historically, prime 2nd home/retirement home targets of winter visitors. We’ll see.

Shadow Hills
14 for sale/average list = $547,807
11 sold/average sold = $496,818
*an excellent showing for Shadow Hills, about a 7.5 month supply of homes and they’re selling for an average of 95.6% of list price.

I’m not sure that it’s strictly a geographic thing, but it sure looks as if homes in subdivisions located west of Craycroft are selling a lot better than those located east of Craycroft. Could it be that simple.

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1 down 2 to go

That sweet Joesler at 5402 N Camino Real sold yesterday. It went for $605,000($226/sf) off a $650,000 list price. Whoever bought it will need to catch up on some deferred maintenance and a few other things, but if you’re into Joeslers, I think it’s a nice catch for $605,000. It was first listed this past March for $799,000.

I’d also mentioned it here> a very sweet Joesler went to contract today and here> now priced in the high $600s

That leaves just two Joeslers for sale in all of the Tucson Foothills – one on Calle La Cima and another at the top of La Lomita. Slim pickins’

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a recommendation

I first saw Luis Alvarado’s cabinetry work in a home that was for sale in Skyline Country Club – much of the house had been renovated and, though I didn’t know him at the time, Luis had done all the cabinetry work. He built new cabinets for the kitchen,  baths, the master bedroom closet, the laundry room and the bookcases too. I remember being very impressed with the beautiful high quality of his cabinetry. 
(the house sold this summer for $1,175,000) Here’s a link to the listing with more pictures -
6640 N Los Leones Drive

And then, coincidentally, I met Luis recently and saw more of his great work and also found him to be a terrific guy. Someone who takes pride in his work and is dedicated to doing a great job for his customers. So I want to recommend him to you, my readers.

From his web site  www.alvaradocabinetry.com

Alvarado Cabinetry is a small shop specializing in custom high-end woodworking. Our area of expertise includes kitchens, bathrooms, home offices, entertainment centers, bookcases, closets, wall beds, custom furniture, fireplace mantels and interior doors.

Luis Alvarado Alvarado Cabinetry, Inc. 1027 S. Tyndall Ave Tucson, AZ 85719 License# ROC188393 Bonded & Insured

Tel: (520) 623-2211 Fax: (520) 623-9920 email: [email protected]

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Holy guacamole Batman, listed at $599,900 and sold for $680,000

you must mean 3505 E Windy Point Drive – which I mentioned here > Holy Smokes Batman, have you seen the new listing on Windy Point Drive and here > another foreclosure snapped up , where I said, “But on this one I think mr. lender actually left some money on the table …”

Well maybe so, but mr. lender did get $80 thou more than he bargained for. And I understand there were multiple bidders for this property, so no surprise there. 

see it here > 3505 E Windy Point Dr

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looking back, home sales in 2010

Here’s a look at Tucson Foothills single family home sales from January 1 thru November 30th. We’re looking at the ups and downs of average list & sold prices as well as the sales volume/month (that’s total $$ value of sales/month) - broken down by price range.

First up are homes that were listed from $0 – $600,000

Next are homes that were listed from $601,000 to $999,999

And finally the big kahunas, those listed at $1,000,000 & up

At first glance I can’t help noticing the harmony between list and sold prices in the $0- $600,000 price range – signifying that buyers and sellers in that range are in general agreement about where prices should be.
The 392 homes that sold in that range sold for 94.7% of list price (that is, of course, based on the latest list price and not the OLP – original list price – which the Realtor powers that be continue to sweep under the carpet as if it didn’t matter. But that’s another matter)

But as we move on to the $601 – $999 range that harmony begins to give way – and at a million and up it is near chaos – where we already know that buyers and sellers are in complete disagreement about where prices should be.

The 94 homes that sold in the $601 to $999 range sold for 93.2% of list price. 
While for those listed at $1.0 & up, there were 44 sales at an average of 88.6% of list price. But you can bet your bippee that many, even most, of the high-end homes that did sell had been reduced and reduced again, and maybe even again, from their lofty original list prices. So saying they sold for 88% of list price is, to put it politely, a gross misrepresentation of what is actually happening in that segment of the Foothills home market.

The other glaring revelation is that while October sales were so dismal for the bottom and top 3rds of the market, for some reason they were quite alright for the mid section, $601 – $999 range. I wrote about October’s dismal sales, here > October home sales in the Tucson Foothills > and here > a new low for October < but I only looked at the overall market and did not break it down by price range.

The other thing I notice is that for the last month or two prices have ticked up a bit. What else??

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a sudden turn around

at the Ridge at Ventana Canyon

There wasn’t much happening at the Ridge. Going back six months there was just one sale in August,nothing in contract and 3 homes for sale that were going nowhere.

Then a few weeks ago 6264 N Ventana View Place went to contract and closed escrow yesterday. Then 6487 N Lazulite went to contract two weeks ago and passed the final hurdles today and is listed as Pending close of escrow.

And also today 6317 N Ventana View Place, on the market just 8 days, is under contract. And now there’s nothing left for sale in the Ridge.

I mentioned the Ridge the other day > the easy way or the hard way, take your pick

see them here> at the Ridge

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today, 12/7/2010

Patience is a virtue - 4341 E Coronado Drive was listed in 07 for $985,000 and then  for $895,000 in 08. But it didn’t sell. Cutting to the chase it was listed today for $625,000. So two years and about $300 thou less, aren’t you glad you waited. (listed by Long Realty)

Along the same vein 2304 E Sentry Ridge Court in PC took a big cut today – going  from $4,950,000, where it’s been since it was listed in January, to $4,250,000. (listed by Long Realty)

There were a bunch of other teeny price cuts, not worth mentioning.

In Alta Vista 6700 N Avenida De Las Palazas found a buyer. It was listed in February for $1,195,000 and pretty much held the line, only dropping to $1,099,000 ($296/sf). (listed by Long Realty)

And 5151 E Mission Hill Drive in Skyline CC didn’t last too long. Listed in September for $775 it went to contract today listed at $700k. (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential)

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the easy way or the hard way, take your pick

6326 N Ventana View Place sold in 2004 for $630,000 and was listed in 2007 for $1,195,000. Makes sense, double your money in three years, and in a declining market too. But the market didn’t buy it and it sat growing old and tired until this August when it sold for exactly what it sold for in 2004, $630,000 ($218/sf)

Then in late October the house right down the street, at 6164 N Ventana View Place, was listed. And not wanting to go through the same agonizing and useless ordeal as their neighbor – that’s just a guess – they listed it for $599,900. And it went to contract in no time and closed escrow today for $575,000 ($258/sf)

see them here> 2 sold at the Ridge at Ventana Canyon

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the upper-end in the Tucson Foothills

Here’s a snapshot of the number of homes currently for sale and the number sold in the last 6 months, along with average list and sold prices, in some of our more esteemed foothills communities and subdivisions

Skyline Country Club Estates
12 for sale/average list = $1,189,242
5 sold/average sold = $803,000
*on top of which there’s a big foreclosure that has yet to hit the market in Skyline, a big $$$$ home that may well put even more pressure on prices

Hacienda del Sol Estates
4 for sale/average list = $1,098,000
2 sold/average sold = $564,500

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
10 for sale/average list = $1,222,790
5 sold/average sold = $1,051,000
* a year ago it looked like cat 10 was down for the count, but its recovered very nicely.
And while there’s still a years worth of inventory, it’s a huge improvement from what it was. Plus there are two in contract, one listed at $1.890.

Eleven Arches
0 for sale
0 sold
*there’s one last home in contract at a deep discount and after it closes that’s it for 11 arches. They’re out of the woods. While a year or so ago it too looked like a sinking ship - socked with homes that seemed like they’d never sell. But they did, albeit for big discounts, and some thru foreclosure or short sale.  But that was then.

Cobblestone
2 for sale/average list = $1,874,500
2 sold/average sold = $943,750
*boring is in again

Canyons
7 for sale/average list = $3,469,306
0 sold
*the poster child for the super-luxe foothills market

and in this corner
Ventana Canyon Estates
11 for sale/average list = $1,299,173
0 sold

Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates
2 for sale/average list = $2,445,000
2 sold/average sold = $1,725,000
*here again, a year ago there hadn’t been a sale in the mountain estates in eons. Then this March it all changed and there’ve been 4 high-end sales since then averaging $1,837,500

Sin Vacas
8 for sale/average list = $821,988
5 sold/average sold = $577,560
*quietly holding their own

La Paloma Estates
4 for sale/average list = $1,395,000
1 sold/average sold = $845,000
*not good odds if you’re a seller,  and a few other homes that were for sale in here have recently left the market unsold.  And I’m guessing they’ll be back soon, January maybe.

Pima Canyon
19 for sale/average list = $2,003,605
2 sold/average sold = $1,620,000
*something’s gotta give, something’s gotta …

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Save big on foreclosures

So says CNNMoney.com

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)  Foreclosed properties are selling at a discount that can only be described as HUGE! Homes in foreclosure sold for 32% less than homes not in foreclosure.

Read all about it > Buy a foreclosure - save 30% on the price

Those are national figures that CNN is quoting, but it made me wonder, how do they compare to foreclosure savings here in the Tucson Foothills.
So here’s the skinny on foreclosure vs non foreclosure sale prices in the Tucson foothills. This is for single family homes sold from June 1 – November 30th

280 total homes sold in that period

232 were non-foreclosure sales, they sold for average/median/avg $/sf of;
$512,897/$425,000/$171/sf

48 were foreclosures, they sold for;
$380,459/$307,203/$128/sf

That’s 26% less for the average sale price, just under 28% less for the median and
25% for $/sf. So our discount on foreclosures is in line with the national figures.

But what we don’t know, particularly when comparing a large number of homes, is whether or not these foreclosure and non-foreclosure homes are really comparable. 
Are homes that go into foreclosure similar to those that don’t.  Are they found in similar locations, are they of comparable quality, of approximately the same age with similar amenities, etc. We know that very often foreclosures are left in poor condition. They’re notorious for their lack of upkeep and damage done, as well as missing parts like fixtures, appliances and whatnot. What %  is that worth and how to factor it in. ??  So while foreclosures may sell for 25 to 30% less than normal sales, often, there are other factors and costs to consider when comparing them to normal properties and prices.

But however wishy-washy those figures may be, you can take these to the bank,
ha ha;  foreclosures accounted for 17% of all single family home sales in the Tucson Foothills during that recent 6 month period (June 1- Nov 30). And that’s up from 10% of sales during the previous 6 month period. cha-ching!!

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of course you can ask whatever you want

In 2006 4912 N Avenida de Castilla was listed for $1,395,000 and did not sell

In 2008 it was listed for $1,198,000 and again did not sell

In 2009 they knocked a thousand off and listed it at $1,197,000, but still it didn’t sell

And 3 strikes you’re out, so by 2010 it was mr. lenders turn, and he listed it for $627,0000 and it went to contract in 8 days. (listed by Tucson Real Estate Resource)

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November home sales in the Tucson Foothills

39 single family homes sold in November, an improvement, thank goodness, from October. Here are the key numbers for November sales and for all previous months this year.

when	# sold	Avg sold	Med sold	Avg $/sf	@$1.0 +
November	39	$516,726	$420,000	$155	3 sold
October	30	$491,197	$430,000	$165	1
September	42	$463,250	$360,500	$155	3
August	51	$509,541	$380,000	$170	4
July	53	$490,823	$416,000	$164	3
June	57	$482,010	$412,500	$170	3
May	59	$467,971	$383,000	$167	4
April	47	$514,083	$425,000	$181	5
March	71	$558,571	$400,000	$186	5
February	33	$592,330	$483,500	$193	2
January	39	$530,899	$400,000	$172	5

November’s average sale price was better than every month since March and except for last month, the median is higher than every month since April.
That’s positive. And the # sold is up a bit too, but that’s up from being way-way down. That said, I still don’t see any real direction or trend to where this market is headed. Do you.

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what a waste

6500 N Saint Andrews Drive was purchased in 2004 as a knockdown
for $480,000
 

and they knocked it down and rebuilt it and in 2006 listed it $2,100,000  

it sold yesterday for $700,000 as a foreclosure.

So what went wrong. Simple, from the beginning, when they had a good opportunity to sell it, it was so overpriced that it couldn’t sell.  Not even in 06, when you had to miss the mark by a pretty wide margin to be overpriced.

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a great foothills rental

Some friends of mine have a wonderful home in the old foothills for rent and
I thought I’d help them get the word out.

It’s a 2004 built, 4800 sf,  5 bedroom + den, 4 bath, one level beauty on an incredible big flat foothills lot, with sprawling mountain views. 20 X 40 pool, outdoor kitchen, ramada, and the views from indoors and out

$4,400/month includes pool and landscape service. 1 year minimum
Here’s a link to the listing > 3145 E Cerrada Los Palitos

ps – I am not in the rental business, this is strictly a friend helping a friend

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fear of buying

House hunters are too scared to buy despite low prices

thanks to CNNMoney.com

You betcha. This article hits home, but it’s not a revelation. In one way or another, the readers and commenters on this blog, and me, have been talking about this for a long time now.  If they hope to sell, sellers have to get real and do everything they can to entice buyers to come to the table. That’s right, entice them. How, with a great product at a can’t-pass-it-up price. Nothing less will do.  

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short sales

The Wall Street Journal with the latest on what’s happening with short sales

Second-Mortgage Standoffs Stand in Way of Short Sales

And a little closer to home we have,
Some Arizona homeowners still owe after short sale

thanks to Alan for submitting this,

December 1

Wasn’t it just the other day that we mentioned the latest price cut at 6446 N Desert Wind Circle -  what’s happening in Ventana Canyon Estates – and now, coincidence maybe, it’s in contract. (listed by long Realty)

And after 582 days, 6270 E Placita El Vuelo, currently listed at $699,000 is also in contract. It  was first listed in April 09 for $929,000.
But with Kolb Rd in the backyard, I’m not surprised it took this long. Back in 2002 when things were still relatively normal, I listed the house two doors west of this and despite being an incredible Sante Fe, with Kolb Rd right there it took forever before a willing buyer came along. And buyers are way more finicky these days than they were then. Way more.
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential)

6218 N Sabino Shadow is a new listing today at $1,495,000 ($320/sf). This is in Canyon Vista Estates, in the northeast corner of the foothills, near Sabino Canyon.
A beautiful and peaceful area. The house was built in 2004 and this is a first time on the market sale. Break a leg. (listed by long Realty)

Also on the eastside of the foothills, 4565 N Quartz Hill Place is listed today for $869,000. Disclosure; I used to call this house home. That is until I sold it in May 06 for $1,025,000. It was then relisted in March 09 for $1,390,000. But no go. So here it is again.  (listed by long Realty)

And the big news of the day - 5535 N Calle La Cima knocked $5 grand off the price, dropping from $900,000 to $895,000. Way to go. (listed by Long Realty)

And 4411 N Camino Sumo in Cat 10 dropped another $100 thou, $1.495 to $1.395. Before you know it it’ll be down to the $1,303,575 it sold for in December 05.
(listed by Russ Lyon Sothebys International Realty) 

1001 E Magee Road, in Cobo Catalina Hills, is down to $2,500,000 after dropping $250 thou today. (listed by Long Realty)

And finally a sale in Pima Canyon. And one that’s notable on three fronts.   
First off it’s the first and only sale in PC since late August.
7264 N Ancient Mesa Place sold today for $1,475,000 ($277/sf). And 2nd, it sold after just 26 days on market. A record I’m sure, for a recent  PC sale.

And 3rd, it’s the only property that I’m aware of in the foothills to reinvent itself with a complete change of address. Get this.

From August 2008 to August 2009, 7264 N Ancient Mesa Place was listed as 7296 N Calle Sin Envidia. It was a spec home that was still under construction – about 80% completed -  and was listed for $2,500,000, and was withdrawn as a short sale in August 09 at $1,712,000. Still showing as 7296 N Calle Sin Envidia.

And then a buyer, who was apparently waiting in the wings, purchased it directly from the seller and the lender, outside of the MLS, for $750,000. That buyer then completed construction and listed it this past September for $1,595,000, but not as 7296 N Calle Sin Envidia, but, rather, as 7264 N Ancient Mesa Place. And it sold today as 7264 N Ancient Mesa Place, with nary a mention of Sin Envidia. (listed by Long Realty, both times)

this was it in 09 when it was still under construction and posing as Sin Envidia,

 

And, look familiar,
here it is as Ancient Mesa Pl, with bells on, sometime this past September

take your pick > 7296 N Calle Sin Envidia
or, 7264 N Ancient Mesa Place

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what the experts are saying

Read all about it,

‘It's an unsettling time to be shopping for a home. Home values have yet to stabilize in three-quarters of U.S. metropolitan areas. Alarm about so-called robo-signing of foreclosure paperwork has raised fundamental questions about who owns a property's title. And, while unlikely, two bipartisan commissions have suggested capping or killing the previously sacrosanct tax deductibility of mortgage interest.’

‘Seeing so many foreclosures hit the market, and watching what has happened with prices, has ingrained a bargain-basement mentality in many buyers, say agents.’
From Businessweek.com > The Next Home Buyers: Ozzie & Harriet

‘The U.S. housing market is showing signs of falling deeper into a slump that could weigh on the nation's economic recovery.’

"The housing market is stuck at the bottom, and we've been stuck there for months," said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight.
From WSJ.com > Slump in Housing Prices Deepens

Mike Larson, a housing market analyst for Weiss Research, said that positive and negative forces have been offsetting each other, leaving a market in limbo.

"You have low home prices and interest rates on the one hand, but trouble getting financing on the other," he said. "And unemployment remains stubbornly high."
From CNNMoney.com > Existing home sales slow down

Millions of foreclosures and weak demand from buyers are forcing home prices down in most major U.S. cities.

Prices are falling even in places like San Francisco and San Diego, which had posted strong increases just a few months ago. Analysts say many markets won't improve until they see fewer foreclosures and more job gains.
From Yahoo News! > Home prices falling faster in most metro areas

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