The Catalina Foothills

somebody got a very good deal

3451 E Calle Puerta De Acero finally went to contract today off a $1,199,000 ($255/sf) list price.

The seller bought it in 2006 for $1,350,000 then spent a bundle completely redoing the very large kitchen and also ripping out the wood floors and putting in new stained concrete throughout. Plus other odds and ends. And then they put it on the market in February 08, exactly 3 years ago, for $2,195,000. If wishes were horses …

So it went nowhere, except down down down in price. And In the spring of 2009 it was at $1,295,000 and I submitted an offer for buyers I was representing that I think got up to $1.1. But that wasn’t up enough for the seller, so we moved on and it stayed for sale. I showed it a few more times after that – I really like this house – and I wanted my buyers to buy it.  Mike Wachs built it, and he’s one of the very best. Masonry construction, massive mission tile roof, 4707sf, 4 bedrooms/4.5 baths/4 car/pool-spa/3.6 acres – sprawling mountain views.

And it’s in the wonderful little boutique subdivision of La Puerta On Hacienda Del Sol – I think there are maybe a dozen or so homes in there and they’re all on 3.3 acres or more. A very special property,

3451 E Calle Puerta De Acero , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Diamond Foothills Properties)

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still wondering if it’s finally time to buy a home

here’s the latest in a growing series of articles that attempt to answer that question but may, in fact, only cause more confusion, From WSJ.com >
Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash 

 which could just as easily been titled > Why 2011 May Not Be …

what’s selling

in the last 30 days 56 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(6 foreclosures in that group)

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (274 remain for sale) = 6.5 months inventory
10 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (123 for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (89 for sale) = 22.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group was $483,914/$364,000/$164

So the under $600 thou group is now within a hairs breath of being in a “normal” 
(6 month) inventory situation. While the mid market, which still has a ways to go, has also improved quite a bit just recently.

And, believe it or not, at $1,000,000 and up we’re also seeing more sales than we have in a long while. (4 sold in the last 30 days, while just 9 sold in the prior 5 months). Also a factor is that new high-end listings have been a bit thinner than might be expected for this time of year, contributing to a 3 or 4 year low of just  89  homes for sale at a million and up.

But that relatively cheerful news is only true for those homes priced under
2 million. Why, because in the last 6 months just one home sold for over 2mil, and that one just squeaked by at $2.1.

Meanwhile there are 27 for sale at 2 million and up – which, if I do the math, works out to 162 months (or, does 13.5 years sound better) of inventory.

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not everyone is pinching pennies

Canyon Ridge, a pretty little subdivision at the very top of Snyder Rd, up up up the hill from Kolb, had its highest priced sale ever today. 4781 N Rocky Crest Place, listed at $1,575,000 sold for $1,525,000 ($370/sf). (Listed by Long Realty) - reduced from the $1,950,000 it was first listed for last September.

I never did get to see this house, but I heard from more than a few Realtor friends that it is quite beautiful and with absolutely stunning views. And at 1.18 acres it is also the largest lot, by far, in Canyon Ridge. (most of the lots in there are half an acre or less)

That must be it, that and love. Because going all the way back to 1998, the next highest sale in Canyon Ridge was $995,000. Congratulations & Good luck to all!

4781 N Rocky Crest Place Tucson, AZ 85750

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gee, I wonder why this one didn’t sell sooner

Let’s see, 7605 E Crested Saguaro, up on Sabino Mountain, last sold in June 04 for $1,030,543. The new owners then put in a pool & spa and some stone walkways and landscaping and probably a fancy built-in grill. And 3 years later, in October 07, they put it on the market for $2,195,000, yep, 2 million 1 hundred & 95 thousand US Dollars - a 113% increase in 3 years.

It was still for sale a few months ago and was reduced again, this time to $1,295,000, and listed as a short sale. And today it went to contract.
(currently listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

7605 E Crested Saguaro Tucson, AZ 85750

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conveniently located on Craycroft Rd

If you head north on Craycroft from Sunrise, on the east side of the street just north of Cimarron there’s that stretch of road where those mini cul-de-sacs were developed a few years ago. You know the ones I mean, they’re just below Pinchot Rd - see the map below where I’ve marked them off in red with yellow arrows at each cul-de-sac.

I’ve passed there countless times during and after the development and wondered ‘what could they possibly be doing’. I couldn’t believe that that land, that fronts directly onto Craycroft, was being developed as residential building sites. No way, couldn’t be. Well yes, could be and is. That is exactly what’s been done - 10 or 11 building lots fronting Craycroft Rd.

This plan must have been hatched during the boom and then put on hold during the bust. But when the dust settles and builders start swinging their hammers again, are we going to see houses sprouting up along that strip of Craycroft.

I’d have thought builders and investors, having lost their shirts on houses they built by the side of the road, had learned their lesson. But maybe not. Over the last few years I’ve written often about the homes, usually specs, that were built by the side of the road  – I call them road kill – and how absolutely miserably they fared in the marketplace. No one wanted them. Why, because people don’t want to live by the side of a busy road. duh (for more of my posts re; road kill, plug road kill into the search box on the upper right)

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things are looking up in Alta Vista

6433 N Placita Del Zopilote is reported in contract today

Zopilote has been looking for a buyer since March 09 when it was listed for $1,499,000. Now at $1,299,000, it’s found one.

6433 N Placita Del Zopilote Tucson, AZ 85750

I wrote about the goings-on in Alta Vista just the other day - how’s the market in Alta Vista – remarking on how things have improved in there recently – and with Zopilote now spoken for, Alta Vista’s on even more solid ground

UPDATE;
5901 E Placita Primitiva, also in Alta Vista, sold today. Listed for $849,000 Primitiva also sold for $849,000 ($230/sf). Congratulations!! (listed by Russ Lyon Sothebys Int Realty)  5901 E Placita Primitiva Tucson, AZ 85750

And not to pick on Primitiva but, by the way, the MLS data will show that Primitiva sold for 100% of list price. Period. No caveats, no disclaimers, explanations or footnotes, no nothing.  Why should there be footnotes or explanations.

Well because $849,000 was only Primitiva’s latest list price. And that only came after having been listed for and reduced from $1,295,000, $1,139,000, $1,098,000, $1,039,000 and $989,000.

Do you think that that information might be useful or important. Like something you’d like to know if you were buying or selling a house in Alta Vista. And does it seem misleading to list this house as having sold for 100% of list price. Period. With no further explanation.

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5905 N Camino Escalante goes for a song

5905 N Camino Escalante, which I’ve written about (too) many times, finally sold today.

It was a foreclosure and it went for $713,000 ($149/sf). That’s for a 2007 built, 4,790 sf adobe home with 18” thick adobe walls and, like they say in the real estate ads, too many features to list.

If you haven’t already heard more about it than you’d care to know, see my previous posts, here and here and here.

Obviously not everyone agreed with me. But still, if you wanted to build it today you couldn’t do it for twice the price this lucky buyer paid.

5905 N Camino Escalante Tucson, AZ 85718

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2 more high-end contracts

7827 N Ancient Indian Drive, a Pima Canyon foreclosure, finally went to contract today. After about 9 months on the market as a normal sale, with no takers, Ancient Indian fell to mr lender and turned up last July as foreclosure for $1,855,000. Way too much given all the parts that were pilfered and its poor condition. But someone finally figured that out and they eventually dropped the price to $1,186,000 ($178/sf) and that did the trick. I wrote about Ancient Indian many times, but most recently here>  foreclosures, the new black (listed by Win3 Realty)
7827 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718

And HOLY COW, another big contract in Cat 10. At least I assume so.
3252 E Camino Boscaje Escondido listed at $1,899,900 (341/sf) is reported under contract today and I’m guessing they didn’t give it away. Boscaje Escondido is a 2008 built custom home on 2 acres, 5564 sf, masonry construction, one story, pool/spa, 4 car. (it was first listed in October 09 for $2,690,000, so maybe they already feel like they’re giving it away) (Listed by Long Realty)
3252 E Camino Boscaje Escondido Tucson, AZ 85718

It was pretty bleak in there for quite a while, but this contract is another solid hit that puts Cat 10 back on the map. It follows 4655 N PLACITA ROCA which went to contract 12 days ago at $1,525,000, and then 4341 N Placita Camaleon sold the other day for $1,725,000. (Cat 10 is on a run) And a few months back 3860 E SUMO NOVENO went for $1,210,000 and before that, and it is a while back but it got the ball rolling, 4705 N Via De La Granja sold for $1,450,000. All solid hits and not one of them a foreclosure or short sale. 

It was a very different story in there for a long time – last January  I wrote >  another contract, but still a long way to go in Cat 10  and in February > strike 2 for Cat 10

Which I don’t mean to  say that all is now honkey-dory in Cat 10.
It’s not. But it is way better than it was.

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the NAR, they are their own worst enemy

WSJ.com

Explaining the Realtors’ Rosy Housing Data

By Alan Zibel

With the National Association of Realtors reporting that home prices rose in about half of U.S. metropolitan areas in the last three months of 2010, it’s easy to think that that the housing market is showing some signs of recovery. “Home sales clearly recovered in the latter part of 2010,” Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s ever-optimistic economist says in a statement.

But the proverbial grain of salt is in order, given many other sources report prices continue falling. The Journal recently reported that home values declined in all of the 28 major metropolitan areas tracked during the fourth quarter when compared to a year earlier, and repeat-sales indexes such as the S&P/Case Shiller index have shown that prices declined in October and November.

and a couple of reader comments from the WSJ article sum it up nicely;

• Charlie wrote:
  For thirty years,”There has never been a better time to buy a home” has been the NAR mantra. Only “journalists” are paying the NAR any attention. Why?

• kilgore wrote:

Someone at the WSJ really ought to do a lengthy analysis of Lawrence Yun’s and David Lereah’s incredibly irresponsible/profoundly damaging statements on the state of the housing markets over the past 7 years. I can’t think of a less credible organization.

It’s laughable, but the NAR continues to parade around as if it’s (still) the trusted source for real estate information in this country. (it never really was the trusted source, it was just the only source available, but they did a damn good job of abusing that privilege – and so those days are now long gone)
Like the Detroit auto industry, peddling their junk to the American people for the 30 years leading up to their collapse, and all the while waving the flag and chanting BUY AMERICAN. What traitors.

Read all about it > Explaining the Realtors’ Rosy Housing Data

more to choose from or more competition

It depends on which side of the fence you’re on, but four optimistic home owners have listed their homes for sale in Pinnacle Ridge (aka Paloma Canyon) in just the last few weeks - bringing the total for sale in there to 6 – for an average/median of $775,783/$767,950

Yet just 3 have sold in the last six months – with the last sale on November 1st -
for an average/median of $666,667/$610,000. And there’s nothing in contract.
So who knows.

And if you’re not familiar with it, Pinnacle Ridge is a newer (built since 2000) gated community located west of swan off Skyline Drive. It is quite popular with families and others and was developed and built by AF Sterling.

6 for sale

3 sold

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how’s the market in Alta Vista

First listed in October 09 for $975,000, 6230 N Paseo Zaldivar, a very handsome Sante Fe, is the latest to make it across the finish line. It sold today for $717,500 ($191/sf) off a $799,000 list price.  (listed by Long Realty) 6230 N Paseo Zaldivar Tucson, AZ 85750

meanwhile there are 10 homes for sale in Alta Vista ranging from $475,000  on up to a new spec still in construction asking $2,150,000.
at the moment the average list in alta vista is $1,172,300/median is $1,035,000

and with 7 homes sold in the last 6 months Alta Vista has come a long way. Just
6 months ago I wrote - theres plenty to choose from in Alta Vista – 16 for sale, just 2 sold, a 48 month supply…

Today, with 10 for sale & 7 sold they’re looking at about an 8.5 month supply.
the average sold $$ of those 7 is $830,357/median is $850,000. So not too terribly out of whack with those listed for sale. Well, Ok, let’s put it this way, I’ve seen worse.

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the good news is we’re selling more homes this year

I just pulled the data on how many homes have sold so far this year;

62 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median/$/sf of $434,863/$360,000/$159sf

OK, but is that good, bad or what does it mean. Let’s see how it compares to previous years

for the same period last year
54 homes sold at an avg/med/$/sf of $559,616/449,500/$178sf
so fewer homes sold but they sold for a lot more $$$

and same period 2009
41 homes sold at an avg/med/$/sf of $557,215/$450,000/$193sf
fewer still, but for a lot more $$$

and 2008 (before any really serious fallout) 
47 homes sold at an avg/med/$/sf of YIKES $781,225/$530,000/$230sf
would you look at those prices

2007 (the age of innocence)
61 homes sold at an avg/med/$/sf of $677,025/$525,000/$237
more sold in 2011 than in 2007

if this keeps up sooner or later prices are going to bottom out (which I suspect they already have in the lower 1/3 of the market)

so the other day in my post > homes sold in the last 30 days in the Tucson Foothills < I remarked that the 33 homes sold in 30 days was a measly amount. And it is.
But I may have been hasty. Because now, in just 3 days 11 more homes have sold + the 18 sold in the first 15 days, brings us to 62 sales in 47 days. or thereabouts.

That aside, any way you count it sales this year are beating the pants off previous years - yes, most of it is at the lower end, but with a growing assist from the mid market, and, while the upper- end has shown some feint signs of life lately, that  jury is still (way) out.

another sale for Cat 10

4341 N Placita Camaleon closed escrow today for $1,725,000 ($262/sf) off a $1,890,000 list price. I know this house well, I had it in escrow last October for my buyers, but they walked during the inspection period. And though the sellers weren’t too happy about it at the time, in the end they made out pretty good. You see our accepted offer back then was less than the $1.725 they got now. (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

Congratulations to all!

That’s 4 homes sold in the last 6 months in Cat 10, with Placita Camaleon the high priced winner. Next in line was a $1.450 sale.

4341 N Placita Camaleon Tucson, AZ 85718

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say it isn’t so, no, not from the NAR

From Inman News™ 
CoreLogic: NAR methodology appears to inflate home sales by 15-20%

Statistics published by the National Association of Realtors appear to overstate sales of existing homes by 15 to 20 percent, mortgage and property data aggregator CoreLogic says in a new report that concludes home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.

A NAR spokesman said the CoreLogic claim "is premature at best," and NAR will be making some benchmark revisions to its historic sales data later this year.

NAR's figures -- based on data collected from multiple listing services and large brokerages -- show sales of existing homes fell 5 percent in 2010, to 4.9 million. But CoreLogic, which collects public sales records from county recorders and courts, estimates that home sales actually fell 12 percent, to 3.6 million.

Read all about it > Decline in real estate sales greater than stated?

or how about - Watch as the NAR Fritters Away the Last Remnants of its Credibility

I picked this up from Chris Fountain’s Greenwich Real Estate blog, For What It’s Worth > Hmm- could the NAR be underestimating the decline in real estate sales and prices? & don’t miss the comments.

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it’s a Joesler kind of day in the Tucson Foothills

Joeslers are pretty rare, even here in the Catalina Foothills where Josias Joesler spent about 15 years designing and building homes.
So it’s not often that you see a Joesler come up for sale or see one sell. But to have one sell and another listed for sale all in the same day, that’s a once in a blue moon happening.

5025 N Camino Escuela sold today for $840,000 ($325/sf). And Cmo Escuela is a very special Joesler in that it’s in vintage 1941 condition and sits on an extremely rare 15 acre parcel in the old Foothills – a parcel that is protected and cannot be split or developed. Built in 1941, the new owners are now just the 3rd owners of this historic home. Congratulations!!
I represented the sellers and the buyers. 5025 N Camino Escuela Tucson, AZ 85718

And 4320 N Alvernon Way, a 1950 built Joesler, came on the market today for $1,149,000($272/sf). And according to the listing it is, 4,223 sf of California Mission Revival style Joesler on 3.36 acres in the Catalina Foothills with unobstructed mountain views, mud adobe construction with mission tile roof with chinked mortar.
4320 N Alvernon Way Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

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homes sold in the last 30 days in the Tucson Foothills

33 single family homes sold in the last 30 days (a measly amount)

27 sold from $0 to $599,999

4 sold from $600,000 to $999,999

2 sold from $1,000,000 & up

the average/median sold price of this group is $416,645/$311,000 @ $153/sf

while the average/median list price of the 488 homes for sale is $791,115/$559,000
@ $213/sf – or an average list price that is 90% higher than the average sold price

and with 488 for sale and just 33 sold in the last 30 days we’re looking at more than 14 months of inventory. That’s in the Tucson Foothills today. Tomorrow, who knows.

But there are a lot of homes in escrow, 82 at the moment. And if a high percentage of them actually close, then things will start to look better. see> what’s selling

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the Tucson real estate market is not one market

This afternoon a reader of this blog was kind enough to send me link to an article from the Huffington Post that pegged Tucson, AZ, along with 13 other cities, to be one of the worst performing housing markets for 2011. Who knows, maybe it will be.

But the article offered the following explanation for why these markets would likely be the worst performers in 2011;
Property prices could fall back to crash levels in some cities.

Despite signs of recovery, house prices are expected to fall by as much as 13 percent in some areas, thanks to a combination of high unemployment, and the large number of bank-owned homes, which often sell at much lower prices. (my emphasis)

I can’t speak to the issue of unemployment. I just don’t know and don’t have access to dependable data. But for the other half of their equation, distress sales - bank-owned homes & short sales – it’s worth having a look at the actual numbers.

Tucson is a large and diverse market. And viewed by its generally recognized areas – Northeast, Northwest, Extended Northwest, South, West, East and North – the percentage of homes that are for sale as distress sales –short sales & foreclosures – varies greatly. For single family homes for sale thru the Tucson Association of Realtors here are the actual numbers;

Northeast – 308 total homes for sale – 46, or 15% are distress sales

Northwest - 1,523 total homes for sale – 419, or 27.5% are distress sales

Extended Northwest – 39 total homes for sale – 11, or 28% are distress sales

South – 375 total homes for sale – 244, or 65% are distress sales

West – 274 total homes for sale – 100, or 36.5% are distress sales

East – 349 total homes for sale – 147,or 42% are distress sales

North(the foothills) – 483 total homes for sale – 42, or 8.7% are distress sales

Now does that look like one nice tidy uniform market to you?

So despite the fact that this information is coming from such august sources as The Huffington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many others who report on the Tucson market, beware, because they never, ever differentiate between the different markets within Tucson. They just glump them all together.
As if the Bronx, Park Slope in Brooklyn and Bed Stuy, Flushing Queens and Forest Hills, Hell’s kitchen (now gentrified to Clinton) and the upper east side of Manhattan were all one market. Misleading and absurd.

Read all about it if you must, but, please, then take the time to understand what’s really happening in the particular area of Tucson that interests you;
Worst Housing Markets for 2011: Clear Capital Markets

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where the heck is the shadow inventory

Six weeks into the new year and there are 484 single family homes for sale and 42 of them are either short sales or foreclosures - and they’re running neck n’ neck -
21 short sales/21 foreclosures – which makes distress sales a grand total of 8.7% of the total homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills market. Nothing to sneeze at, but nothing to get terribly alarmed about either. Unless of course you are one of them.

31 are priced from $0 to $599,999 (31 of 268 total for sale = 11.5%)
  7 from $600,000 to $999,999 (7 of 124 total for sale = 5.6%)
  4 from $1,000,000 & up (4 of 92 total for sale = 4.3%)
The % of distress sales is up slightly in the lower and middle price ranges and down a tad in the upper range, that’s vs. last month - slim pickins in short sales and foreclosures in the Tucson Foothills

And the average/median list price of this group is $545,730/$393,600 -
up more than a tad from last months tally. So we’re seeing, for the moment anyway, a higher grade or at least a higher priced crop of distress sales. But we’re also seeing approximately the same number of distress sales that we’ve seen since I started keeping track of them about 18 months ago.

And despite all the talk and reports of its existence, we’ve yet to see that deluge of shadow inventory darken our skies. The reason that was usually given for lenders not releasing the shadow inventory was because they didn’t want to overwhelm the markets and put a further drag on prices. OK fine, but from the beginning foreclosures have been a relatively small piece of our market. And other than inching up somewhat in price, I still don’t see any evidence of that changing.  

so where the heck is the shadow inventory

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what’s selling

There are 82 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills

With 82 in contract out of 484 for sale that’s 17% of the number of homes for sale are currently in contract.

here’s how it looks by price range;

at $0 to $599,000 there are 268 homes for sale and 59 - or 22% – in contract

at $600k to $999 there are 124 homes for sale and 15 – or 12% – in contract

at $1,000,000 & up there are 92 homes for sale and 8 – or 8.7% – in contract

at an average/median & avg $/sf of- $541,340/$444,500/$174/sf

I’ll use this as the starting benchmark for the year when looking at the homes in contract in the months ahead.

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got the blahs

Step right this way,

That’s 5110 E Calle Barril, 8316 sf of living breathing color. And it’s back on the market, now for just $1,200,000 ($144/sf) (listed by Win3 Realty )

see it here> 5110 E Calle Barril Tucson, AZ 85718

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2 big hits today for the high-end market in the Tucson Foothills

7828 N Ancient Indian & 3271 E Camino Juan Paisano are both reported under contract today.

Ancient Indian is a spectacular spec home in Pima Canyon that started out in January 2009 asking $3,295,000 ($447/sf). And after two years and many price cuts – but no buyers - it left the market this January at $1,995,000.
And, miraculously, it returned just two weeks later as foreclosure priced at $1,850,000 ($248/sf) That’s now history, it’s in contract and I represent the buyers.

Camino Juan Paisano, in La Paloma Estates, was listed last September at $1,795,000 ($317/sf) and stood pat with no price cuts. I represented buyers who made an offer for it just a few days before it was listed. And the sellers came down in price and the buyers went up in price and everyone tried to reach agreement, and we went back and forth and back and forth, to within a hairs breath of a contract, but we never quite got there. Very Frustrating for all.

And now, 5 months later, someone did. Congratulations. It’s a very nice house on a beautiful lot with some of the very best mountain views in the foothills.

7828 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty)

3271 E CAMINO JUAN PAISANO Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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Fortune says,

Despite a flurry of positive data on the housing sector, it's still too early to bank on a comeback.

Posted by Nin-Hai Tseng, writer-reporter

here’s why;

It's still cheaper to rent in most cities

Prices are expected to drop further

Mortgage hurdles remain

Read all about it,
Homes more affordable, but don't expect a rebound

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and yet more good news on the (Tucson) real estate front

From CNNMoney.com
Housing Markets; Best Recovery Bets

Tucson, AZ

 

It’s baffling how news of the real estate market could have turned so positive so quickly. Virtually overnight we’ve gone from a bust to a nicely recovering market.

Nevertheless, we’ll see. But I hope it’s all true and we return to a nice balanced market where buyers aren’t afraid to buy and sellers don’t risk losing their shirts in order to sell.  Stay tuned.

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it’s baffling, but the news on housing has suddenly turned very positive

said Mark Zandi, chief economist (and a long time housing bear, my observation, JS) at Moody's Analytics. "If you can get a loan, these are pretty good times to buy."

From WSJ.com, read all about it > Home Affordability Returns to Pre-Bubble Levels

This is true to one degree or another in the Tucson Foothills, depending on the price range you are looking in. But even if it is not happening here, if it is happening in many other markets across the USA - and I can’t and won’t vouch for that - then some of those people who are (finally) able to sell are going to end up here as buyers. And that means more demand and a stronger market and, eventually, maybe even less of a buyers market.

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a big hit for Cat 10

4655 N PLACITA ROCA BLANCA, on the market just 28 days, is reported under contract in Catalina Foothills Estates 10.

Roca Blanca last sold in 2007 for $1,693,000 and was listed in January for $1,525,000 ($330/sf). This is a beautiful house, one of the nicest around and on a premium lot too. So it’s not at all surprising that it’s gone to contract so soon. And given that it has gone so quickly, I’m going to assume the sellers got at least fairly close to list price. Within 5%, I’ll guess.

see it here> 4655 N PLACITA ROCA BLANCA , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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this is the market

6181 N Via Presilla sold for $675,000 in 06 and went to contract today listed at $475,000 as a short sale

6040 N Desert Sun Court sold for $895,000 in 04 and for $610,000 today

and 7461 E Ridge Point Road sold for $445,000 in April 08 and for $300,000 today

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The Wall Street Journal says,

Buyers in markets around the U.S. are snapping up homes in all-cash deals, betting that prices are at or near bottom and breathing life into some of the nation's most battered housing markets. …

‘snapping up homes in all cash deals’, and get this,
WSJ's Mitra Kalita reports more and more homebuyers are selling investments to pay cash for real estate, sensing a bottom in the housing market. wait a minute, wasn’t it just yesterday that the bottom was nowhere in sight

Read all about it> Cash Buyers Lift Housing
ironically sub titled, Bargain Hunting Boosts Prices in Depressed Cities

Sounds great. But it’s not happening here. Not yet anyway. But I have observed that foothills real estate usually lags both the ups and downs of other larger markets by 3 to 6 months or more. So maybe this cash buying binge is headed our way.
I hope so, but we’ll see.

On the other hand, it is a no-brainer that the high-end market in the foothills, where most of the cash deals get made, still has further to fall. Yes there are deals out there, and some awfully good ones now and then. But there are still many
high-end homes for sale that are living in the past, and a long gone past at that. 
And that, along with high inventory, is a key factor in why the recovery of the
high-end market is barely limping along.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

what happened over the weekend in Tucson Foothills real estate

Since Friday afternoon 10 new listings have graced our mls ($189,900 to $999,000), 
12 homes (from $197,000 to $1,899,900) had price reductions, 2 homes sold ($175,000 & $730,000) but those were on deals made last year.
And 3 homes went to contract – $115,000, $250,600, $579,000

That’s about it. Plenty of supply not much demand.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

if you missed it the 1st time round, or the 2nd, or even the 3rd,

don’t despair, 7454 N Secret Canyon is back. A 2009 built spec home that fell to foreclosure last September and was listed in late November at $2,120,145 – that’s after 18 months of trying and failing to sell as a normal sale at $5,000,000, $4,750,000, $4,350,000, $,4,500,000, $4,250,000, $3,950,000, $2,699,000 and finally $2,900,000.

But, finally last month, Secret Canyon went to contract (at the $2,120,145 foreclosure price) and I assumed that’s that, over and done with. Finis. But that deal has now fallen through and Secret Canyon is back on the market. (listed by Toma Partners)

7454 N Secret Canyon

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

please, let’s all read this and pass it on to help make sure that Pulte homes gets the PR they really deserve

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON In today’s New York Times

Preapproved: Well, It Sounded Good

MELISSA CALDERONE was ready for a fresh start when she made plans last year to move to Florida from New Jersey. Recently remarried, she signed a contract in mid-March on a house to be built in Windermere, Fla., by Pulte Homes, the nation’s largest homebuilder. The neighborhood had good schools for her three children and two stepchildren. It was also close to where Ms. Calderone’s parents lived.

Her local bank approved her for a mortgage. But then a Pulte Homes saleswoman told her that she would get a $4,000 credit toward closing costs if she took out a loan with the homebuilder’s banking unit instead. Ms. Calderone, 38, agreed. She deposited $20,000 in earnest money and set aside $80,000 more for a down payment on the $347,000 house. Her closing date, documents show, was scheduled for late summer, about six months later.

Then her troubles began. Although she had been “preapproved” by Pulte, the company ultimately denied her the loan. Then, contending that Ms. Calderone had defaulted on the purchase agreement by failing to close on time, Pulte kept her $20,000 deposit. The house went back on the market.

Read all about it, Preapproved: Well, It Sounded Good

To my knowledge Pulte doesn’t do business in the Foothills, but they do sell homes in other areas of Tucson. Get the word out,

pray for snow, just not for here

Our recent brush with frigid weather withstanding, it wouldn’t merit even a mention compared to what people in the rest of the country have had to endure.

Brett Arends of Wall Street Journal looks at whether the weather is going to drive more sun seekers to live in the warmer climes of the south and southwest.

Here Comes the Sunbelt
WSJ.com

This is Lake Shore Drive in Chicago, heading north for the burbs. What fun, eh. 
For about 20 years I made my way to and from along Lake Shore Drive, often in weather just like this.  And at the time it seemed so normal.

say, how’s the market in the Tucson Foothills doing this year

It’s too early in the year to start counting actual sales for the year, because most of the sales that have taken place this year are the result of deals that were made last year. And that has more to do with how the market was doing last year.

So let’s forget about sales for the moment and look at the homes that have gone to contract this year. That way we’ll be looking at deals that were made this year, since Jan 1. Which at the very least will show us the homes and price ranges that buyers are interested in now. And while not all of the homes in contract will result in a sale, one thing is for sure, homes are definitely not going to sell until they do go to contract. So while contracts are not the end-all and be-all, they are a very good indicator of where the market is headed.  

There are 476 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills and since January 1st 68 homes have gone to contract. That’s about 14% of the total homes for sale have gone to contract since Jan 1.

by price range;

at $0 to $599,000 there are 263 homes for sale and 52 - or 20% of the total for sale - went to contract. IF 20% went to contract every month and IF all those in contract resulted in a sale, and IF no new listings were added, then all the homes in this price range would be sold out in about 5 months.

at $600,000 to $999,000 there are 120 homes for sale and 14 - or 11+% of the total for sale - went to contract. Applying those same IF’s to this price range it would take about 10 months to sell all the homes.

$1,000,000 & up there are 93 homes for sale and 2 - or just over 2% of the total for sale - went to contract. And applying those same IF’s to this price range, fugetaboutit.

That’s how the market’s doing.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

let it snow

No surprise, but Lowes, Ace & Home Depot were sold out of pipe insulation by the time I got there. So I used some of those floaty pool tubes that I had laying around.
Works just as well. I hope.

I got off easy just having to wait til about 1 o’clock to get my water back. And with no burst pipes. Others weren’t so lucky.

do you have water this morning, I don’t

Statement issued from Tucson Water on outages

TUCSON - Tucson Water has issued a statement about overnight water outages.
Overnight temperatures are affecting water service throughout the Tucson Water service area. According to Fernando Molina, Public Information Officer for Tucson Water, the extreme cold has caused electronic control instrumentation at various reservoir and booster sites to malfunction, automatically shutting down pumps. Over 1000 businesses and residences have been impacted throughout the early morning hours, as work crews are being sent out to reset electronic control systems to re-establish water service to affected areas. Areas affected as of 4:30 a.m. include Corona de Tucson, Diamond Bell Ranch.

Molina stated that the outages have kept crews busy all night, but so far none of the incidents have been the result of frozen water pipes at any Tucson Water facilities. While freezing temperatures have not frozen any Tucson Water pipes, it is possible that home plumbing may be affected by frozen or burst water lines. Customers can call 791-4133 to report water outages. However, this emergency phone number will not be fully staffed until 6:00 a.m. when regular shift employees arrive at work.”
_____________________________________________________________________

I’m in the old foothills and my water is out. How about you?

___________________________________________________________________

UPDATE;
Both the Long Realty office at Sunrise & Hacienda del Sol and the 900 E River Rd office are without water.

oh the weather outside is …

RECORD COLD for Tucson

when all else fails

Go for it, make a reverse offer,

A reverse offer goes in the opposite direction: from seller to buyer. In some cases, a seller whose home has been on the market for ages with lots of viewers, but no offers, may enlist their agent to go back and approach several or even all of the buyers who have come to see the property, and make an offer to the buyer. In other scenarios, the seller's agent extends an offer to a particular buyer who has come to see the property multiple times and seems very interested, but has been hesitant to make an offer.

I saw this on Trulia >

3 Best Practices for Making Reverse Offers

huh

Tucson

21° | 5°

had enough of the hum drum

Well you may be in luck.  There’s a new listing up in the Canyons that’s a humdinger - it’s 13,350 sf/2009 built/masonry construction/6 Beds/6 Baths + 4 half baths/10 car garage/and a long list of exotic features including your own English Pub
Cheers!

7582 N Secret Canyon Drive
Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)   $9,995,000 (that’s nine million nine hundred …)

(no one’s immune, Secret Canyon left the market last October asking $13,500,000)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

Monster Blizzard Paralyzes Midwest, Albany-snow, sleet, and freezing rain, SEVERE WEATHER ALERT Issued by the National Weather Service,

Amen

33 homes sold in January in the Tucson Foothills

29 sold from $0 to $599,999
2 from $600,000 to $999,999
2 from $1,000,000 & up

Average sale price - $447,165
median sale price - $377,500
avg/sf – $161

That’s 22 fewer homes than sold in December, but, thankfully, the average/median/$/sf has more or less held on

see > December home sales in the Tucson Foothills for a recap of 2010, if you dare,

in the pipeline

Yesterday I wrote that the few remaining foreclosure homes priced at a million $$ or more looked as if they were close to getting a contract. And that if they do we’ll be left with no high-end foreclosures for sale. boo hoo boo hoo

But also, there are just 6 homes priced at a million $$ or more in contract and in escrow – including foreclosures, short sales and nice old fashioned normal sales.

And 3 of the 6 are Pending so they should close very soon. And  4341 N Placita Camaleon, though still marked as Active Contingent, is, a little birdie told me, closing tomorrow. That will leave just 2 high-end homes in the escrow pipeline - no foreclosures in the foreclosure pipeline – and just 1 high-end short sale.  boohoo

But today is February 1st and February is, or is supposed to be, the (no more excuses) real start of the high season for Tucson Foothills home sales.
So presumably we’ll be seeing more new listings come to market, including, maybe, more foreclosures and, more importantly, we’ll be seeing more high-end homes going to contract.  We hope. Because contracts that turn into sales is where the rubber meets the road. The rest of it is just talk. So please stay tuned and let’s see what happens.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home