This afternoon a reader of this blog was kind enough to send me link to an article from the Huffington Post that pegged Tucson, AZ, along with 13 other cities, to be one of the worst performing housing markets for 2011. Who knows, maybe it will be.
But the article offered the following explanation for why these markets would likely be the worst performers in 2011;
Property prices could fall back to crash levels in some cities.
Despite signs of recovery, house prices are expected to fall by as much as 13 percent in some areas, thanks to a combination of high unemployment, and the large number of bank-owned homes, which often sell at much lower prices. (my emphasis)
I can’t speak to the issue of unemployment. I just don’t know and don’t have access to dependable data. But for the other half of their equation, distress sales - bank-owned homes & short sales – it’s worth having a look at the actual numbers.
Tucson is a large and diverse market. And viewed by its generally recognized areas – Northeast, Northwest, Extended Northwest, South, West, East and North – the percentage of homes that are for sale as distress sales –short sales & foreclosures – varies greatly. For single family homes for sale thru the Tucson Association of Realtors here are the actual numbers;
Northeast – 308 total homes for sale – 46, or 15% are distress sales
Northwest - 1,523 total homes for sale – 419, or 27.5% are distress sales
Extended Northwest – 39 total homes for sale – 11, or 28% are distress sales
South – 375 total homes for sale – 244, or 65% are distress sales
West – 274 total homes for sale – 100, or 36.5% are distress sales
East – 349 total homes for sale – 147,or 42% are distress sales
North(the foothills) – 483 total homes for sale – 42, or 8.7% are distress sales
Now does that look like one nice tidy uniform market to you?
So despite the fact that this information is coming from such august sources as The Huffington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many others who report on the Tucson market, beware, because they never, ever differentiate between the different markets within Tucson. They just glump them all together.
As if the Bronx, Park Slope in Brooklyn and Bed Stuy, Flushing Queens and Forest Hills, Hell’s kitchen (now gentrified to Clinton) and the upper east side of Manhattan were all one market. Misleading and absurd.
Read all about it if you must, but, please, then take the time to understand what’s really happening in the particular area of Tucson that interests you;
Worst Housing Markets for 2011: Clear Capital Markets
see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home