The Catalina Foothills

at a million and up

How are sales doing at a million and up,

25 homes listed at a million $$ and up have sold so far this year, 
(3 sold for less that a million) the average sale price was $1,319,174 at $260/sf with the % of sale price to list price (SP/LP) at 90.1%. (so on average they sold for 90.1% of what they were listed for – well not really, but more on that later)

Anyway, How does that compare to the same period in 2010;
26 homes listed at a million $$ and up sold in 2010, (2 sold for less than a million)the average sale price was $1,367,269 at $269/sf. And the % of SP/LP was 88.8%.

how about 09 (in the rubble of the collapse)
21 listed at a million $$ and up sold in 09 (2 sold for less than a million) the average sale price was $1,216,857 at $269/sf. The % SP/LP was 84.8%

and, finally, 2008 (before it all really hit the fan)
37 homes listed at mil and up sold in those balmy, carefree days.
And they sold for an average of $1,499,358 at $325/sf at 91% SP/LP.

CAVEAT CAVEAT- if you don’t know this already- the % SP/LP should be taken with an extra large grain of salt. Why?

Because as the MLS calculates it, the % SP/LP is based on the latest list price.
That’s after all price cuts & after, perhaps, being relisted & relisted again and maybe even again.

So if a home were first listed for $1,700,000, reduced to $1.6, then to $1.5, then relisted at $1.2 and eventually reduced to $1.0, and then it sold for $950,000, guess what, it would show up in the official statistics as having sold for 95% of list price. Talk about making the numbers say anything you want.

Anyway, since the SP/LP is calculated in the same peculiar way each year, we can
at least compare one year to another and see that high priced homes now appear to be selling for closer to LP than they have been in the last couple of years.

And that’s a good thing. Because a tighter relationship between SALE PRICE & LIST PRICE means that buyers and sellers are in closer agreement on where prices should be. And why, you ask, are buyers and sellers now in closer agreement?

Well, because after holding out for a few years, sellers finally realized that the only way they were going to sell was to reduce their price to what buyers were willing to pay. That’s it, it’s that simple.

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Owning a house remains central to Americans’ sense of well-being

From the New York Times
By DAVID STREITFELDand MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
Published: June 29, 2011

Despite Fears, Owning Home Retains Allure, Poll Shows

Nearly nine in 10 Americans say homeownership is an important part of the American dream, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. And they are keen on making sure it stays that way, for themselves and everyone else.

Read all about it; Despite Fears, Owning Home Retains Allure, Poll Shows

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up on Sabino Mountain

Once upon a time 7605 E Crested Saguaro Place was listed for the princely sum of $2,195,000. But it never sold, and after more than a few price drops it ended up at $1,275,000 this February, whereupon it quickly went to contract as a short sale. But after 4 months in contract it fell out of escrow yesterday and returned to the market at $980,000. And then today it expired. And I don’t know if it was the buyers that got tired of waiting for the lender to make up their mind, or the lender did make up their mind and it was not in the buyers favor. Who knows. But  one thing is for sure, short sales are often an exercise in frustration. I wrote about Crested Saguaro > gee, I wonder why this one didnt sell sooner <  7605 E Crested Saguaro , Tucson, AZ 85750

UPDATE- Crested Saguaro is, once again, back on the market 7605 E Crested Saguaro

And down the road apiece, 4085 N Black Rock Drive dropped from $825,000 to $799,000. Just the latest in a series of price cuts that began after it was listed for $1,500,000 last January. 4085 N Black Rock Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750

And not much is happening elsewhere on Sabino Mountain.
There 7 homes for sale from $293,500 to $1,099,000, 1 in contract at $383,500 and 2 sold in the last six months at $250,000 and $535,000. And the last time anything sold for a million or more was in April 09.

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the bottom of the barrel for Cat 10

5260 N Circulo Sobrio sold today for $497,000 - or an extremely puny $129/sf, as a foreclosure – off a $497,000 list price.  So, as some see it, it sold for 100% of list price.

But keeping in mind that once upon a time it was listed for $1,395,000 or $363/sf, it went for about a 65% discount from its original list price. (yet - as the MLS sees it, this will go down in the books as selling for 100% of list price. No wonder consumers are flocking to Zillow, Trulia, et al.)

Anyway, going back to January 1, 2006, there’ve been 45 homes sold in Cat 10 and 5260 N Circulo Sobrio, at $497,000, is the lowest, rock bottom, sale of the bunch.

While the dubious honor of the highest price sale goes to 4331 N Placita Camaleon – sold for $2,900,000 ($464.96/sf) in Feb 2008.  And all told, that works out to an average sale price of $1,160,682 ($269/sf) over these last 5 tumultuous years.

What’s next.

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coulda woulda shoulda

5680 N Chieftan Trail sold for $430,000 in April 03 and was listed in May 09 for $850,000 ($290/sf). WOW!

But it didn’t sell and it’s still for sale, and after today’s price cut – from $599,000 - it’s now asking $525,000 ($179/sf). And I’ll bet it finally sells at this price.

But looking at sales in Indian Trails Estates from January 2005 thru May 2009 - when it was listed - the highest sale in there was $623,500. So if they woulda, maybe they coulda …

5680 N Chieftan Trail Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

the mystery of 7487 N Secret Canyon Drive

7487 N Secret Canyon Drive, up in the Canyons, was listed in October 2009 (in the Tucson MLS) for $4.7m & it expired this past February at $3.4m.

Then, mysteriously, on March 1st it was listed in the Phoenix MLS - but not in the Tucson MLS – huh, I wonder why -  by a Phoenix RE broker, huh, again I wonder why, as a short sale for $1,650,000.  And I’ll be darned, would you believe it, it went to contract immediately and closed escrow on Friday for $1.650,000. So neat, tidy and perfect, it’s almost hard to believe. I wrote about it here > here’s an interesting twist <

It was described in the  Phoenix MLS as > Terrific home ready for you to pick your appliances. A Short Sale that is just right for that special someone in Tucson.

aha, sure, well why not list it in the Tucson MLS so that special someone might have a chance in hell of actually seeing it

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aren’t you glad you waited

7617 E Snyder Road, a 1996 built, 8,375 sf home on 3.3 acres, was first listed in November 2007 for $1,200,000 – which was just $143/sf – is still for sale and now available for $450,000, yes $4-5-0-K – or a measly $54/sf

The listing says> DRASTIC PRICE REDUCTION, BRING ALL OFFERS! Diamond in the rough foothills property that can be shined up beyond any buyer's expectations! …

7617 E Snyder Road Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

And another offering at $450k, this one in Shadow Hills.
6201 N Camino Padre Isidoro was listed in 06 for $965,000, then $945 then $899 and on & on  – never sold – and it too is available today for $450,000, so take your pick

6201 N Camino Padre Isidoro Tucson, AZ 85718
(also listed by Long Realty) 

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BIG contract today,

and in the Canyons too

3657 E Canyon Wind Place, first listed in September 09 for $3,800,000 found a buyer today at its current $2,995,000 ($481/sf) list price.

2000 built, 6224 sf, on 1.9 acres, it is described as > Architectural sophistication in Tucson's finest gated development:The Canyons.Phenomenal jetliner views,Catalina Mountains& very private setting set the tone. Evan Eglin Architect,Lori Carroll Interior Design …

3657 E Canyon Wind Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

This is a big boost for the Canyons as it is the 1st normal (non-foreclosure) sale, in there, in many moons

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no one holds out forever

A 2009 built spec home in Hacienda del Sol estates, 3199 E Corte De Andalucia, started out two years ago asking $1,795,000. But with today’s cut it’s down to $1,195,000 ($250/sf). And for the first time the listing says
SELLER MOTIVATED – MAKE AN OFFER

3199 E Corte De Andalucia Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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sold in Alta Vista

6549 N Calle De La Lluvia sold for $1,020,000 ($237/sf) from a $1,095,000 list price that was reduced from it’s original list of $1,299,000.
for more on this little corner of Alta Vista see > packing them in in Alta Vista <

Also, fyi - when this house was listed last September I noted that there were 15 homes for sale in Alta Vista > the more the merrier < today there are 7 for sale.

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only at the right price

7525 N Camino Sin Vacas sold today for $775,000 (145.24/sf) off an $849,00 list reduced from $998,000 when it started out last October

7525 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

if you’re looking in Ventana

7200 E Desert Moon Loop sold in 03 for $1,280,000, was listed in 08 – 09 for $1,695,000 – nothing happened – and is back on the market today for $1,195,000 ($252/sf)

Built 1994, 0.6 acres, masonry stucco, 4731 sf, 4 beds/3 baths, 3 car, 2 story,

7200 E Desert Moon Loop Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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you can ask whatever you want

In Cat 10, 3770 E Placita De Piacho was listed last October at $1,175,000 ($321/sf) & it expired yesterday at $1,175,000 ($321/sf).

3770 E Placita De Piacho Tucson, AZ 85718
(was listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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sold for $1,399,500 in 04 and for $856,400 today, as a foreclosure

from an $899,900 list price on a house where all the landscaping was completely dead from lack of water and the house itself needed some work. Wells Fargo got more than I thought they would, or even should, on this one

6019 N Pinchot Road , Tucson, AZ 85750

2002 prices?

Listed in March 09 for $1,495,000, 6433 N Placita Del Zopilote went to contract today from its most recent list price of $1,195,000 ($249/sf). Hurrah!

However, Zopilote last sold in May 02 for $1.2

6433 N Placita Del Zopilote , Tucson, AZ 85750 (that’s in Alta Vista)

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the improving market has not escaped Cat 10

In Catalina Foothills Estates 10;

7 for sale – from $799,000 to $1,575,000, average list = $1,168,429

4 sold in the last 6 months, average sold = $1,410,000 Including a short sale that went for $700k $162/sf. (and, yes, in a twist on the usual price gap between homes for sale and homes sold -  the average sold price  is actually  higher – quite a bit higher -  than the average list price

= about a 10 month supply of homes in Cat 10 (a huge improvement)

+ 3 in contract @ $1,299,000, $1,045,000 and a foreclosure @ $514,900($134/sf) that was listed at $1,395,000 and $1,295,000 in 07 and early 08 – and went nowhere

And of those for sale a couple of them have been around long enough to have become fixtures - remnants of the RE bust, perhaps they should charge admission - while a couple of others are well on their way. Nevertheless, the big picture in Cat 10 is much brighter than it was one and two years ago.

June 2009 - have you heard, there’s a 15 month supply of homes for sale in the foothills, that’s a fact

November 09 - even more to choose from in Cat 10

January 2010 - the more the merrier on Camino Sumo

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riding the market to the bottom

4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas has been in contract since April 14th off a much reduced $725k list price. And today it was marked as Pending, which indicates the inspection contingencies have been removed and it’s a pretty sure bet to close escrow soon. Hallelujah!

It’s been a long time coming. It was first listed in February 2008 for $1,150,000 and held out at a million or more until (it was too late) Feb 2009. Then it was reduced in dribs and drabs until (it was really too late). And then finally (reality dawned) it was re-listed on April 1st for $725k – Hoorah - and 2 weeks later it was in contract.

And the thing is Bellas Catalinas is just not a $1,150,000 community. Not based on the sales numbers anyway. And what else is there. From Jan 1 2006 thru today the average sale price in Bellas Catalinas is $737,564 with just one sale over a million, and all the rest from $890k down to $542,900. And the one over a million was a pretty fantastic, head and shoulder above the rest, custom home that someone just had to have.

4289 N Via Bellas Catalinas Tucson, AZ 85718
(now listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

what’s happening out there

They’re cutting prices up in the Canyons, they are.
7431 N Secret Canyon Drive left the market a year ago at $5,950,000 and returned today at an even $5mil. ($519/sf). Such a deal.

And just down the street at 7417 N Secret Canyon Drive they cut their price to $3,495,000 ($483/sf) from $3,690,000 from $3,990,000 from $4,500,000.
Unlike many areas of the foothills, home sales in the Canyons have yet to pick up – 8 homes for sale from $1,990,000 to $9,995,000 averaging $4,370,625 at $569/sf & just 1 sale since Jan 2010 - a foreclosure that went for$1,850,000 ($267/sf), 63% off  it’s original list price.  

On the market since January when it was listed for $899,000 5320 N Camino Real went to contract today off an $819,000 ($186/sf) list. Described as Joesler-like it
is a classic, 1945 built, foothills home

___________________________________________________________________

In Sin Vacas,  2921 E Calle Sin Pecado went to contract after about 6 months off a $679,900 ($200/sf) list.

And in Coronado Foothills Estates 6821 N Montezuma Drive sold for $570,000 ($230/sf) off a $589,000 list price after just a few months.

_______________________________________________________________

And a little closer to home, 5009 N Rock Canyon Rd closed today at $720,000 ($186/sf) from a $725,000 list price. I represented the buyers.

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the most recent home sales numbers are pretty OK

here’s a look at single family home sales in the Tucson Foothills for the 
May 15 – June 15 period, for this year and for years past

this May/June – 65 homes sold at an average of $511,784

last May/June – 49 sold at $510,597

May/June 09 – 44 sold at $541,477

May/June 08 – 58 sold at $637,674

and while we’re at it, how do sales for the May 15 - June 15 period compare to other 30 day periods this year

April/May – also 65 sold, but at $490,781

March/April – 54 sold at wow! $575,724

Feb/March – 59 at $468,549

Jan/Feb – 36 at $401,200

so, comparatively, sales are doing pretty OK and prices are holding up too

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inventory is down in the Tucson Foothills

Right now we’re down to 396 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills, including 70 listed at $1.0mil & Up.

June 2010 there were 474 single family homes for sale with 104 at $1.0mil+

June 2009 – 559 for sale with 131 at $1.0mil+

June 2008- 558 for sale with 150 at $1.0mil+

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talk about losing your shirt

The grandest of the grand ultra luxe boom time real estate developments has been foreclosed. It’s official, Saguaro Ranch, where lots were routinely listed and sold for upwards of $1,500,000, has been taken back by its two principal lenders.

And lately those same 4 to 5 acres lots  that were selling at around $1.5 back in 04 and 05, are selling this year in the $180,000 to $275,000 range.

Same thing with the few houses that were built in there. One buyer, one of the very few to buy a completed house, paid $4,950,000 ($934/sf) back in 06. While a recent foreclosure sale went for a much more modest $2.1 ($289/sf) after failing to sell for $5.4. 

So if you believe in the future of Saguaro Ranch, yes the lenders are promising to move forward with it, there are some drastically reduced properties to be had in there.

Read all about it> Developers lose luxury Saguaro Ranch

and I mentioned Saguaro Ranch back when it was a promising venture> Record Price for Tucson Home  > and then later > my how things change <

And, oddly, the Saguaro Ranch web site is still up and running > http://saguaroranch.net/

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a few good sales

5535 N Calle La Cima sold the other day for $750,000 ($165/sf) off a $799 list that was reduced from $1,050,000 when it started last August. But given that they paid $783,500 for it in October 2008, the sellers got off real easy - for more on La Cima, the two story in a one story neighborhood, see > coming full circle <
5535 N Calle La Cima Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And the corks must be popping over in Alta Vista. 6101 N Paseo Zaldivar, a 2011 built spec, sold for $1,850,000 ($312/sf) – the 2nd highest sale price in Alta Vista.  Going all the way back to 1999, there’s just one higher sale, and oddly enough, that was also a spec and also on Paseo Zaldivar.
6101 N Paseo Zaldivar Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by long Realty)

And with the sale the other day of 4068 E Playa De Coronado, there’s nothing left at the Summit at Finger Rock - it’s SOLD OUT - where, until this year, it looked pretty bleak. 4068 went for $1,050,000 ($308/sf) off a range price listing of $1,050,000 - 1,125,000. And worth noting is that of the 4 homes sold up there this year, 4068 went for the highest $$/sf, by far. It was $308, next was $261, then $232 then $202. And so, not only did the buyers go for it but, apparently, the appraiser did too.
4068 E Playa De Coronado Tucson, AZ 85718 (also listed by Long Realty)

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are prices rising?

you might think so if you were guided by the pricing over at 4549 N Hacienda Del Sol

First listed in November 09 for $825,000 and still unsold after many moons and many price cuts, the other day they raised it from $499k to $549k?
4549 N Hacienda Del Sol
(listed by RE/MAX Catalina Foothills Realty)

I’m off for a few days

traveling, a mini vacation.
If I have the time I may report in before returning next week.

Stay cool,

buyers will tell you when the price is right

5254 E Mission Hill Drive Tucson sold in 2000 for $1.1 mil – then had some relatively minor updating - and was listed in April 09 for $1,750,000. And there it sat.

Then a few months ago it was reduced to $1,250,000 and, presto,  it sold yesterday for $1,175,000 ($218/sf).

All you have to do is listen.

5254 E Mission Hill Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Much reduced or not, this  is a good sale for Skyline. The only other sale in there this year over a million $$$ was the gigantic foreclosure on Javelina Dr –
sold for $1,850,000 ($170/sf) – 10,901 sf.

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how many months supply of homes are we looking at in the foothills today

There are 416 homes for sale & 331 sold in the last 6 months in the entire foothills.
That’s a 7.5 month supply of homes, with an average list price of $780,158

Looking at a few foothills communities, the story is quite different,

First up, in Shadow Hills there are 10 homes for sale and 17 have sold  in the last 6 months =  a very lean 3.5 months supply of homes for sale at an average list price of $491,990

La Paloma; 29 for sale, 16 sold in the last 6 months
=  nearly an 11 month supply, average list $622,609

How about Ventana CC; a coincidence or what, there are also 29 for sale in Ventana, but just 7 sold in the last 6 months 
=  a 24+ month supply of homes, average list $1,158,941

Skyline CC; just 10 for sale, but also, just a scant 4 sold in the last 6 months
= a fat 15 month supply, average list $1,073,500 (due, in large part, to a $3.4mil spec that’s coming up on 2 years on the market) without it the average drops to $809,444

do I hear Fairfield; 12 for sale and 12 sold in the last six
= a perfect 6 month supply, average list $477,361

Pima Canyon; 15 for sale - 7 sold in the last 6
= almost a 13 month supply, average list $1,941,853 (13 months is pretty good, considering, a couple of years ago PC was at about a 2 year supply, and with little hope of improving - On the other hand the average sold $$ in PC is $1,240,193, way below the $1,941,853 average list)

Sin Vacas; 5 for sale – 3 sold = a 10 month supply

Catalina Foothills Estates 10 – 9 for sale – 5 sold
= 10.8 months supply, at an average list of $1,163,000

Pinnacle Ridge/aka Paloma Canyon – 6 for sale & 3 sold in the last 6
= a tidy 12 months of inventory at an average list of $778,033

the Canyons – 7 for sale – 1 sold
= a 42 month supply at an average list of $4,308,571 @ $580/sf, yes, $5-8-0.
(while the 1 that sold was a spec home that started out in March 09 asking
$5 mil and sold last month for $1,850,000 ($267/sf) as a foreclosure)

more later,

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bidding wars, they’re not unheard of anymore

Bidding wars, where two or more buyers compete for the same property, which were fairly common during the boom, but have been pretty much unheard of since then, are making a comeback.

On two very recent transactions where I’m representing the buyers - which are still active transactions so I won’t disclose the details - we ended up in bidding wars.  And on both deals there were not just two but three bidders vying for the homes. The first deal went very close to asking price, and we got that one. And on the 2nd one, where our offer was well over asking price, we were still beat out by a better offer.

There are buyers out there and they’re getting bolder and more aggressive about getting what they want. 

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getting real

1308 E DESERT GARDEN Drive was re-listed today for $949,000 ($294/sf)

That’s after starting out in January 2010 at $1,280,000($397/sf) and eventually  drifting to $1.1. It’s a nicely done contemporary, very simple, that’s focused around a wide open living area with a nearly wall to wall background of dramatic mountain views.

1308 E DESERT GARDEN Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

it’s just a matter of finding the right buyer

6942 N Longfellow Lane, up in Coronado Foothills Estates, is in contract after about 7 months on the market.

Longfellow - a 1976 built, 2 story burnt adobe with magnificent mountain views and nice privacy - sold in 2003 for $530k and then had a complete and gorgeous renovation. New everything, and really good stuff too. And it was listed for sale in February 09 for $1,195,000 – and I think everyone was convinced that the gorgeous renovation would overcome the fact that it was a 2 story with living areas up and all bedrooms down. But it didn’t. And it was reduced and reduced until it sold in October 09 for $950,000. And just one year later those owners wanted to sell and they bit the bullet and listed it for $869,900.  And then they bit harder and reduced it to $799k ($150/sf) and bingo.

It’s a wonderful house, beautifully renovated, and at this price a real bargain, like getting Tiffany for Target prices, but it’s still a real 2 story too.
6942 N Longfellow Lane Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And 7604 N Camino Sin Vacas, in as dramatic a setting as I’ve seen and with amazing views, also found a buyer this week.

And in a setting like that the driveway is also pretty steep and dramatic, and not for the faint of heart. But once you get up there you’re, literally, above it all.

It last sold in 2001 for $1,080,000, then was listed in Feb 2010 for $1,295,000, where it stayed until this Feb when it was reduced to $1,100,000.

7604 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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what are buyers buying right now

Right now there are 107 homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills & 413 remain for sale

Of the 107 in contract;

73 are priced from $0 to $599,999  (250 are for sale)

23 are from $600,000 to $999,999 (89 for sale)

11 are from $1,000,000 & up (75 for sale)

average list price of those in contract is $545,711  vs $786,599 for those still for sale

see  the homes in contract now  (the number of homes in contract is constantly changing – so the number you see will very likely be more or less than 107) 

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you can ask whatever you want

After selling for $1,027,500 in June 05, 5360 N Salida Del Sol was listed in March 08 for $1,395,000. It then spent two years on the market losing value and finally sold yesterday for $825,000.

5360 N Salida Del Sol Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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May home sales

that’s for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills

this May 2011 - 52 57 sold (average sale price= $509,648 $501,468

May 2010 - 59 sold/$467,395

May 2009 – 41 sold/$510,266

May 2008 – 57 sold/$622,051

May 2007 – 65 sold/$709,866

so, for what it’s worth, May prices are closest to where they were in May 2009
(when many of us, myself included, thought the worst was over)

May 2006 – 82 sold/$628,411

May 2005 – 108 sold/$625,082

May 2004 – 115 sold/$505,005

May 2003 -  97 sold/$422,973

and closer still to May 2004

and in April 64 homes sold at an average of $500,467
and 61 sold in March at an average of $490,733
February you say, 55 sold at $447,833
January, 35 sold at $438,256

Sale prices rose every May from 03 thru 07, then fell in  08, 09 and 10 and are moving up again as of this May. And prices have also risen every month this year thru May - even though the number of homes sold is down a tad. 

But June is not starting off very promising with the Dow way down and the dire pronouncements for housing and the economy

Stocks Drop Sharply on Disappointing Economic Reports

Housing Imperils Recovery
Home Prices Sink to 2002 Levels; Consumer Confidence Falls as Pessimism Grows

YEAH! 7539 N Whisper Canyon Place sold yesterday

it went for $1,237,500 ($287/sf) from a $1,295,000 list price, reduced from its January debut of $1,375,000 (listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

then again, the sellers paid $1,625,000 ($377/sf) for it in April 07

OUCH!

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