Let’s sneak behind the gates of some of our more popular gated communities and see what’s for sale, what has sold and for how much
Going east to west, lets pick on Ventana CC first,
Ventana Country Club
26 for sale $345,000 to $5,200,000
12 sold (last 6 months) $339,000 to $2,200,000
# for sale @ avg/median | sold (last 6 months) | moi |
26 @$1,288,367/$1,147,000 | 12 @$865,125/$803,750 | 13 |
Ventana was a late bloomer this year for sales. For a while it almost looked as if it just wasn’t going to happen – but homes finally started selling in June, and 10 of the 12 sold in the last 6 months have sold in the last 3 months. Also, and I know we’ll find this in other high-end communities, there’s that large gap between the avg price of homes that are selling vs those for sale. And that’s due to the fact that relatively few high priced homes are selling, relative to the number for sale.
Sabino Mountain
9 for sale $274,900 to $1,950,000
5 sold $250,000 to $535,000
# for sale @ avg/median sold (last 6 months) moi 9 @$716,878/$389,000 5 @ $342,850/$315,000 10.8
Once the darling of new gated communities in the foothills, (though I never quite understood all the hoopla) Sabino Mtn has lost some luster. While $1.2 and $1.3 sales were fairly common a few years ago, the highest sale in there in the last 2 years was $900,000, then $875,000, then $675,000 and on down. And 2 of the 5 that sold sold as foreclosures. If a buyer does come along for one of the higher priced homes on Sabino, how do you justify the price and what do you do for comps??
Skyline Country Club
10 for sale $439,000 to $3,450,000
9 sold $450,000 to $1,850,000
# for sale @ avg/median | sold (last 6 months) | moi |
10@ $1,021,490/$749,000 | 9 @ $1,007,000/$705,000 | 6.6 |
Almost a perfect score across the board. List and sold prices are in agreement, and with homes at this price range that’s rare, and 6.6 moi is spectacular. And just one foreclosure amongst the sales, though 2 of those for sale are short sales. Skyline really came back this year, now lets see if it can somehow hold on to that lead.
La Paloma
20 for sale $204,000 to $1,990,000
18 sold $250 to $1,640,000
# for sale @ avg/median sold (last 6 months) moi 20 @ $619,580/$547,000 18 @ $590,083/$527,500 6.7
La P has also been doing well. 6.7 moi is impressive in this market. And also with list and sold prices in close agreement. And because La P has done so well it makes me wonder what’s stopping Ventana CC, why aren’t homes selling as well in there.
Catalina Foothills Estates 10
5 for sale $745,000 to $1,190,000
6 sold $497,000 to $1,750,000
# for sale @ avg/median | sold (last 6 months) | moi |
5 @ $975,000/$970,000 | 6 @ $1,178,667/$1,200,00 | 5, WOW! |
And Cat 10 also managed to climb out of a very deep dark sales hole.
After a dismal 18 month period from mid 08 to early 2010, sales finally started to pick up, and then they just kept going.
17 homes sold from Feb 1, 2010 to today (none were distress sales) – 7 of them from $1.2 to $1.750 - vs. just 8 sold in the 18 months from July 08 to Jan 2010 with the highest sale at $995k, then $775, etc. Cat 10 is back, and the current inventory is also at the low-end of the historical price range in there. (in April 09 there were 17 for sale and not a single sale since October 08 - look on the bright side, darn it) (in March 2010, there were 18 for sale at avg/med of $1,607,000/$1,499,500)
Hacienda del Sol Estates
0 for sale
2 sold $695,000 & $921,500
# for sale @ avg/median | sold (last 6 months) | moi |
0 | 2 @ $808,250/$808,250 | 0 |
Nothing for sale, that’s special. And it’s probably a good thing to give it a rest.
Things didn’t go so well in there for the last couple of years – of the 11 homes sold
5 were distress sales. And as we speak there’s at least one more percolating off the radar. While the highest sale in the last two years was $921,500, then $853k, then it’s into the $7’s & $6’s. While back in the day sale prices of $1.3 and more were not unusual.
Canyons (The)
7 for sale $1,990,000 to $9,995,000
1 sold $1,850,000
# for sale @ avg/median | sold (last 6 months) | moi |
7 @ $4,395,714/$3,495,000 | 1 @ $1,850,000 | 42 |
What’s there to say that hasn’t been said. Nothing’s selling at this price range and who knows when they will. (the $1,850,000 sale was a foreclosure reduced from $5.0, while the last sale before that was 3 years ago, July 2008) Yikes!
Cobblestone
4 for sale $1,199,000 to $1,600,000
0 sold
# for sale @ avg/median | sold (last 6 months) | moi |
4 @ $1,362,000/$1,324,500 | 0 | ? |
4 for sale, none sold. The last sale in Cobblestone was last August, that’s August 2010. And talk about shadow inventory, there are 5 homes in Cobblestone that were for sale in 2010 & 2011, but didn’t sell, and were withdrawn from the market (between then & now) and have not returned. So maybe 5 additional homes are lurking in the shadows and waiting, presumably for better times, to sell. oy,
Sin Vacas
3 for sale $585,000 to $1,000,000
7 sold $500,000 to $975,000
# for sale @ avg/median | sold (last 6 months) | moi |
3 @ $728,000/$599,000 | 7 @ $699,857/$640,000 | 2.5 |
hip-hip Sin Vacas, the poster child for a vibrant real estate market.
Why has Sin Vacas been doing so well? There may be other reasons, but I’ll bet a big one is price. As in, the homes in Sin Vacas that sold were priced quite a bit less (mostly in the $5 to $7k range) than homes in our other, loftier, gated communities.
Like Pima Canyon
Pima Canyon
17 for sale $825,000 to $4,250,000
7 sold $920,000 to $1,660,500
# for sale @ avg/median | sold (last 6 months) | moi |
17 @$1,857,524/$1,495,000 | 7 @ $1,289,143/$1,200,000 | 14.5 |
Unlike other foothills communities, Pima Canyon has had the added burden of lots of spec homes setting up camp in PC. Why, because when PC opened it doors in 2000, suddenly there were dozens & dozens of very buildable lots available for sale in this beautiful new gated community. And they all had utilities to the lot line and paved roads and everything a builder needed to get going. So builders and investors saw the future and bought up those lots and built spec homes on them. There was nowhere else in the foothills where that could be done on anywhere near that scale. And that went on until last year.
So to this day the spec inventory is still being worked off, while the downward price pressure of foreclosed spec homes, and others, continues to be a burden. Of the 17 homes for sale I count 7 specs. And that’s now, in 2011, after many spec homes have already come and gone.
And one more thing to keep in mind when looking at PC as compared to Ventana, La Paloma, Skyline CC and even Sabino Mountain. In those communities there are oodles of smaller homes for sale in the $200 to $700k range, (a range that continues to sell much better than $1.0 & up) while in PC everything is larger and higher end. Albeit, not quite as high end as some imagine it to be.
The End.
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