The Catalina Foothills

sales and prices this year

That’s for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills, 

 

blue is average prices/red is median

 

YTD- 568 homes have sold for an average/median of $473,088/$386,250

vs. the same period last year

531 homes sold for an average/median of $508,248/$415,000

So while sales have inched up, prices have gone down.
And I don’t know if it means anything but this is the reverse of what occurred as the boom was petering out in 06 and into 07 – back then, sales were plummeting yet prices continued to rise.

05 sales/prices – 989 sold/avg sold $618,192
06 sales/prices – 728 sold/avg sold $703,360
1st half 07 sales/prices – 356 sold/avg sold $707,772 (621 sold for the year, and prices did begin to fall after the mortgage meltdown hit in August)

Where we go from here is anyone’s guess. And I’m sure we’d all love to hear what your crystal ball is telling you.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

another quick contract

Purchased new in 2001 from the builder AF Sterling, 6382 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive, listed at $710,000 ($201/sf) eleven days ago, is already in contract.

Lately, we’ve had quite a few quick contracts. And that’s not counting distress sales either, just normal sales. And all have been listed in the $700k to $1.3, or so, range.

Is it pent up demand? Buyers just sick and tired of waiting? A belief that we’ve reached bottom? Lack of distress sales now driving buyers to “normal sales”? Prices to good to pass up? With slim pickins in some price ranges are buyers rushing to grab the best of what’s available? None of the above? Coincidence?

6382 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

reaching for the stars in Sin Vacas

First time on the market, 7373 N Camino Sin Vacas showed up today listed for $1,850,000 ($359/sf) in Sin Vacas. And it looks like a beautiful house with spectacular views.

But the reality is that Sin Vacas has never had a $1.8mil sale, or anything close to it. Not thru the MLS anyway. (highest sale was $1.5 in 2002, then three sales at $1.475, in 05, 06 & 07 - more recently, the last two years, the highest sale was $975,000)

Anything’s possible, but, the question is, is this the time to reasonably expect record breaking home prices – in Sin Vacas or anywhere else in the Tucson Foothills.

 7373 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Realty Executives Tucson Elite)

a dwindling supply

From the WSJ.com real estate blog - The number of homes listed for sale fell for the fifth straight month in October, hitting the lowest level in more than four years.

By Nick Timiraos
Housing Inventories Fall to New Four-Year Low in October

That is also the case here in the Tucson Foothills.
Right now there are 365 single family homes for sale. During the last five years the closest number of homes for sale was in November 2006 when there were 395.

in Nov 2007- there were 505 for sale

Nov 2008- 591

Nov 2009- 465

Nov 2010- 496

Yet even with a dwindling supply prices are still weak and if anything still falling. Though it seems they’re falling much less and more slowly than they were.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

cheaper to buy than to rent

According to an article from Nick Timiraos on WSJ.com – Home prices and mortgage rates have fallen so far that the monthly cost of owning a home is more affordable than at any point in the past 15 years and is less expensive than renting in a growing number of cities.

That may be so, it may be cheaper, but, as the article also points out there are other important considerations that are preventing people from jumping on the it’s a good time to buy a home bandwagon. 

Read all about it > Stronger Lure for Prospective Home Buyers

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

and two two stories to contract

and both are in Skyline Country Club

7028 N Javelina Drive was reported under contract yesterday and 7028 N Mission Hill Lane today – listed at $829,000 and $750,000 respectively.

and both went quick too, Javelina Drive in just 11 days, while Mission Hill took 94  – peanuts in this market. Particularly for a two story.

Why such a thing about them being two stories, well, because two story homes are generally a tougher sale. Much tougher. And to have two go within a day of each other and both in Skyline CC, it’s unusual.

two two stories
(and both are listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

Happy Thanksgiving!

now at 50% off its original asking price

In Pima Canyon, 1347 E Desert Garden Drive was relisted today with an $80,000 price cut, bringing it in at $1,295,000 ($281/sf). It’s been on and off the market – but mostly on - since 2007 when it debuted at $2,600,000 ($530/sf)

And though it took a while to get there, this new price may just be the magic number buyers have been waiting for. It’s right about where homes like this have been selling recently in PC, and they’ve been selling better in PC recently than in every other luxe gated community in the foothills,

1347 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

sold quickly and for way over list price

2620 E Miraval Place, a foreclosure, was listed on September 16th for $359,000, went to contract very quickly and closed escrow today for $450,000 ($145/sf) –
25% over list.

It happens, because if it’s a really good deal you can be pretty sure that you’re not the only one who’s looking at it.

2620 E Miraval Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Win3 Realty)

 see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

new spec home goes to contract

yes a spec, built this year and listed at $999,000 ($209/sf), wow $209/sf, how are resales going to compete with that

6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

It was listed this past March at $1,095,000 and dropped to $999 two weeks ago.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

if you don’t agree with your home’s online valuation, don’t worry, just wait a day or two

Finally, The Wall Street Journal reports on the murky business of Internet home valuations.

Read all about it> From WSJ.com
By ALYSSA ABKOWITZ
How to Figure the Fuzzy Math of Internet Home Values
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Zillow’s zestimates is a subject that is near and dear to my heart. So near and dear that I’ve railed about it for years now. Why? Because here in the Tucson Foothills zestimates are not accurate and they’re not dependable and they can be very misleading.

And surprisingly, in the course criticizing zestimates I’ve taken some heat from readers of this blog. And while they didn’t necessarily disagree about the lack of accuracy of zestimates, they still defended Zillow. Why? Because they like Zillow, they like it a lot, for all the other fun and useful tools and information that Zillow brings to the party.

And because until Zillow came along, the Realtor® organization held all the cards and they held them very close and only doled out information as they saw fit and, often, only when and how it served their purposes. ‘It’s a great time to buy …’ho-ho-ho

By putting all that information in the hands of consumers Zillow has changed the game, big time, and in doing so they also forced the Realtor® association to either wake up and get with it or go the way of other dinosaurs.

And that’s all great and good, but I still don’t like zestimates, not for here in the foothills. Because, at best, they’re still hit or miss.

here are a few of my past rants on the subject of zestimates in the Tucson Foothills;

 it’s been awhile, (and things are slow) so let’s check in with Zillow
(check out the comments)

more on zestimates vs reality

and finally,
checking in with Zillow

There are more, but why beat a dead horse.

In a comment to one my posts, a reader (Rebecca @ www.littlered.com) offered what I think is the most apt advice on how to approach zestimates,

“ the zestimate is a fun toy -- a strange barometer not unlike a horoscope that shouldn't have too much stock put in it. when it makes you happy, that's great. but don't let it get you down”

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

not everything above a million $$ is languishing on the market

3565 E Placita De La Raza was listed on October 10th for $1,250,000 ($273/sf), went to contract 10 days later and closed escrow today for $1,120,000 ($245/sf).

It’s unexpected and seems out of sync with this market, but very recently there have been a few contracts & sales, all, notably, in the $1.0 to $1.5mil price range,
that have gone to contract very quickly. Like in less than 20 days.
And none of them are short sale or foreclosures. And, more surprising, they were not bargain priced either.

3565 E Placita De La Raza – 10 days to contract (listed by Long Realty)

6851 N Vista Del Pueblo – 10 days to contract (listed by Long Realty)

7501 N Whisper Canyon Place – 8 days to contract (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

7574 N Mystic Canyon Drive  - 19 days (listed by Long Realty)

see them all > HERE <

And this at the $1.0 to $1.5 price range which, as noted in the post just below, is burdened by a 20 month supply of homes. Though that may soon be changing.
And it seems that the shortage of short sale & foreclosure homes in this price range (there is only 1 for sale) may be nudging buyers toward normal sales.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

45 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days
(368 for sale) 

31 from $0 to $599,999 (212 for sale)

12 from $600,000 to $999,999 (80 for sale)

2 from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 (41 for sale)

*nothing sold from $1.5 to $2.0 or from $2.0 & up (35 for sale)

average/median sold price for the group was $450,751/$384,000

Months of inventory continues to be a mixed bag; overall it’s about 8 months.
While from $0 to $599k there is barely a 7 month supply and at $600 to $999k it’s 6.5 months. That’s the good news.

At $1.0 to $1.5 were looking at 20 months of inventory. And with no sales at
$1.5 and up, it’s anybody’s guess how long it will take to unload all those luxurious homes.

One things for sure though, prices have fallen from where they were at this time last year – when 41 homes sold for an average/median of $506,283/$425,00 – that’s 11%  & 9.6% more than now.

And for you historians, today’s average/median sold prices are within a hairs breath of where they were at this time in 2003.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers

From The Washington Post
By Kenneth R. Harney, Published: November 18

How do you fight back when an appraiser — often from another city and working for a small fee on behalf of a big bank — wrecks your sale, purchase or refinancing with a low-ball valuation?

It’s a serious problem in markets across the country.
Disagreements over real estate values are nothing new, but agents, builders and sellers say current market conditions, plus recent changes in federal rules that effectively encourage banks to use in-house or affiliated appraisal management companies, are magnifying the problem.

Read all about it > Flawed real estate appraisals create problems for buyers, sellers, refinancers
______________________________________________________________________________

In the real estate world there are few events more difficult, frustrating and intensely emotional than a buyer not able to buy  a house and a seller not able to sell because of a screwball, faulty appraisal.

It happened to me for the first and only time this past summer and, I’m happy to say, I fought back and I won.     I wrote about it here > the problem with appraisals

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

As the housing slump drags on, the carrying costs of waiting out the market have become onerous, even for the wealthiest.

A seller who put a home on the market in 2009 hoping that a turnaround was on the horizon may now be realizing that it could take several years or more for the market to rebound. "Eventually, even the people who have unlimited means will throw in the towel at some point," said George Graham, the CEO of Concierge Auctions.

Read all about it > From WSJ.com
High-End Hits the Auction Block
Long associated with desperate sellers and foreclosed homes, auctions are now selling mansions and luxury estates.

or just sit back and watch,

 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

paid $2,200,000 ten years ago and sold for $1,400,000 today

That’s at 7203 N Cloud Canyon Place, on the market since 2007 when it was listed for $3,250,000 and reduced and reduced until it reached $1.5 and sold today for the aforementioned $1,400,000 ($252/sf) - in the Canyons.

And while the sellers did pay $2.2 ($407/sf) for it in July 2001 it’s hard to believe that that was fair market value. The sellers who sold it them for $2.2 had purchased it exactly one year earlier, in July 2000, for $1,595,000 ($295/sf) – when it was brand new.

Can anyone make a case for it appreciating 38% from July 2000 to July 2001 –
if so I’d love to hear it. 

You’ve heard the old saying, you make (or lose) your money in real estate when you buy (not when you sell),

Today’s buyers, getting it for less than the  2000 price, they did well.

7203 N Cloud Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Also worth noting, this is only the second sale in the Canyons since July 2008 - 
and it’s also the first “normal” non-distress sale since 2008 - Cheers to that!
the one and only other sale was a foreclosure earlier this year.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

for those who are not hunkering down

6151 E Finisterra is a brand new spec home in Finisterra, really, a NEW spec completed just 6 months ago

And at 8921 sf/6 Beds-7.5 Baths/it’s bigger than your average spec and bigger than your average anything, spec or otherwise

It was first listed in Feb 2010 – for $4,200,000 – but back then it was in the early days of construction, so who could tell – and it caught my eye today when it came back on, again at $4,200,000 ($470/sf)

 

 

6151 E Finisterra Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

calling all buyers in the $3mil range

5600 N Via Elena, a marvelous and unique property in the old Tucson Foothills, is back on the market today at $3,500,000 after its most recent listing at $4,450,000 was canceled in late September.

It’s a biggie, Main House - 6952 Sq.Ft. Office Space - 928 Sq.Ft. Maid Quarters - 854 Sq. Ft. Guest Quarters - 792 Sq. Ft. Exercise Room - 792 Sq. Ft.
Total Sq. ft. 10,318. And all of it tidily arranged on an unusually large 6.18 acre lot,

all gated, walled & private

see it here > 5600 N Via Elena Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

what sold for $623/sf in 06 and is available today for $255

how about 1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, a new short sale listing in Pima Canyon, now available for $1,100,000 ($255/sf).  And yes, in 2006 it was listed for $2,900,000, and it also sold for $2,900,000 ($623/sf) – just like that, in just 53 days.

And, for some reason, barely 6 months later the new owners listed it again, this time for $3,200,000. And it didn’t sell and they reduced it and it still didn’t sell and so starting in mid 07 they rented it. And it’s still rented today. So if you buy it, chances are you inherit the tenant until the lease is up.

Even during those wild and crazy days of 06, $623/sf was big big bucks – so while it does make for a fun headline I’m not so sure we should look at it as fair value paid. In 2006 20 homes sold in Pima Canyon, imagine 20 sales at a $$million +++
in just one year, and just in PC, dream on …

SLAP! SLAP!, back to reality - the average/median sold price that year was $1,849,533/$1,766,500 vs. 10 sales this year at $1,197,335/$1,200,000 – @ $250/sf.

And not including the Sahuaro Blossom sale, the average $/sf sold price in 06 was $392. So at $623 Sahuaro Blossom was up in some very thin air - the next highest was a mere $501/sf. ha ha!!

1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br)

This showed up in the MLS late on Friday, so by now they’re probably sorting thru
15 or 20 offers.  

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

missed by a mile

4085 N Black Rock Drive on Sabino Mountain sold as a new house for $873,763 in 2005 and was listed for $1,500,000 ($444/sf) in Jan 2010. And guess what happened.

It hung around for almost two years and finally sold today for $675,000 ($200/sf)
(and it’s not short or a foreclosure)

I can’t imagine how you jump from $873,763 to $1.5 during the worst market in modern history. But I’m not alone there, because no one else could imagine it either. 

4085 N Black Rock Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

hey, how’s the market doing at $1.5mil and up

Well let’s see, there are 34 homes listed for sale from $1,599,000 to $7,900,000.

And then there are 2 in contract.

And coincidentally, they’re both short sales. 
One is listed at $2,650,000 after failing to sell at $4,450,000 or at any of the many price reductions since then. And the other is now at $2,250,000 after starting out at $4.9 and going nowhere.

And nothing in that range has sold in the last 3 months, or even in the last 6 months. But there were 3 sales earlier this year of homes listed at $1.5 and up. 

One sold for $1,660,500 and the other two went for $1,850,000 each. Coincidence. 
And talk about coincidence, all 3 were foreclosures. Really. And all 3 followed the falling market, but they didn’t break a sweat doing it, and so they never caught up. That is until mr. lender came along and reared his ugly head – and then they caught up real quick. And sold in no time.

So if you’re listed at the $1.5 and up price range, but you’re not a short sale or a foreclosure, or not doing a good imitation of one, pricewise that is, well, then things are not looking up.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

location location location

just not this location location,

by the side of a busy road. This is road kill and we’ve had more than our share of it in the foothills in the years since the boom went bust. And Hacienda del Sol Rd has seen more road kill than any road I know of – with builders slapping up homes on cheapo roadside lots.

This one,  on the market 2+ years, started out at $879,000 and  sold today for $547,000 ($166/sf) as a short sale. That’s for a 3300 sf house completed in 2007, which they probably started planning for in 05, when you could sell ice to the Eskimos and make a good living.

But there is a bright side to it. Because while the builders/investors in these roadside haciendas took a serious bath, the buyers, who could not otherwise afford such a home, were now able to.

4549 N Hacienda Del Sol Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by RE/MAX Catalina Foothills Realty 1684)

For more of my rants on road kill just enter road kill into the search box in the right hand column and enjoy.

the real estate market for the greater Tucson metro

While I generally don’t report on the overall Tucson market, Long Realty does and I thought you might be interested in a glimpse at how the rest of the market is doing.

The following is the summary from the latest Long Realty market report for sales activity in the overall Tucson metro. And also, unlike my reports which only include single family homes, the Long Realty reports also include townhomes and condos.

 As of October 2011 active inventory was 5,353, a 28% decrease from October 2010. There were 962 closings in October 2011, 28% above October 2010.

Months of Inventory was 5.6, down from 9.8 in October 2010. Median price of sold homes was $120,000 for the month of October 2011, down 14% from October 2010. The Tucson Market had 1,351 new properties under contract in October 2011, up 58% from October 2010.

Other than the slide in prices those are very encouraging numbers. Encouraging enough to indicate that the Tucson market may be on the rebound.

But just like here in the foothills, in order to have a real understanding of what is, and is not, selling, and the resulting months of inventory, the figures must be broken down and viewed by price range.

And as you’ll see in the following chart from Long, just like here in the foothills, the overall Tucson market is going great guns at the bottom price rungs – which, for the Tucson market, is up to about $250k -  but not so great beyond that.

I also like the following chart which  shows moi across the Tucson market by zip code – though it’s probably a bit mushy to read clearly.

It shows the foothills with 11.6 moi, one of the highest in the metro.
And the culprit is high priced homes. And while they’re not selling very well anywhere in the Tucson area, we have more of them in the foothills than our neighbors do.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

still a large price gap for Tucson Foothills homes

For years now there’s been a large gap, an abyss really, between the average list price of all the homes for sale and the average list price of the homes that buyers are buying.

e.g., in January 2009 the homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills were listed at an average of $919,942 – while the homes that sold were listed at an average of $495,853 – that’s a 46% difference in list price between the overall market and the homes that buyers were choosing to buy.

and today, while list prices have come down quite a bit, 16% since 09, we’re still in the same old pickle. The homes for sale are listed at an average of $770,111 – but the homes that are selling are listed at an average of $462,095 – still 40% less than the price of the overall market.  So by and large, buyers are still ignoring the higher end.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

2 quickies in Pima Canyon

A few days ago I wrote about a home in Pima Canyon that went to contract in 19 days – that’s awfully quick, a record for recent times - and not a short sale or foreclosure either > one surprisingly quick sale.

Well please make way, because 7501 N Whisper Canyon Place – also in Pima Canyon and listed on 11/2 is in contract already – in a measly 6 days.

7501 N Whisper Canyon Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed $1,349,000, $328/sf)
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)
Congratulations!

Where else but Pima Canyon!

Now it’ll be interesting to see at what price it went to contract. If there’s an anonymous source tuned in, pray tell,

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

short sales and foreclosures- a growing influence in the Tucson Foothills market

Three years ago, in the 90 days from August 2008 to November 2008 a grand total of 9 homes sold as distress sales in the Tucson Foothills – 4 foreclosures and 5 short sales - and they topped out at $783,500 but with the bulk of them selling under $500k.

While in the 90 days prior to today, 35 homes sold as distress sales –
25 foreclosures and 10 short sales – and they topped out at $1,304,000, but still the bulk of them were under $500K.

Lifted from a blog post I did in November 08 > > short sales and foreclosures, how close to list price are they selling < very close, even then, much closer than normal sales,

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

if you’re looking in the $9’s

step right this way, three new listings today and they’re all in the $9’s

4971 N Avenida De Vizcaya, Tucson, AZ 85718, in Hacienda del Sol – $995,000
4201 N Quail Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750, on Sabino Mountain – $995,000
4081 N Quail Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750, also on Sabino Mountain – $999,000
(and all listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

short sales & Reo’s are priced to sell

For homes in the Tucson Foothills listed at $500,000 & up and sold in the last 6 months;

-short sales & Reo’s sold for an average of 100.032% of list price 
while
-normal, non distress, sales sold for an average of 92.7% of list price 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

2006 home prices in the Tucson Foothills vs. today

On this day in 2006 the average & median sold price for homes sold in the previous 90 days was $703,850 & $570,000 from 141 single family home sales.

Today, the average & median sold price for homes sold in the past 90 days is $430,653 & $350,000 from 119 single family home sales.

That’s a 39% drop in average & 38% in median sold prices

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

one surprisingly quick sale

7574 N Mystic Canyon was listed on August 25th for $1,249,000 ($344/sf) and was in contract just 19 days later and closed today for $1,038,000 ($286/sf) – just 83% of list price. 7574 N Mystic Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

It’s unusual for a seller to accept that much less than their asking price after such a short time on the market.  Often, offers that are that much lower than list are  rejected, or if they are countered they’re countered at or near the list price. Thereby reaffirming the sellers intention to hold out and letting you and your buyers know to take a hike. And, very often, months later when the house is still sitting there they’re singing a different tune.

But perhaps the buyers agent was persuasive and simply showed that of the
5 homes sold in PC in the last 6 months the highest $$/sf sale was at $290/sf, and the average was $275/sf. And that $344/sf or $3-anything/sf was not going to cut it, like it or not. And instead of huffing and puffing and ignoring reality the sellers embraced it and took the offer and moved on. Good for them.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

looking for two “well matched” buyers to buy and share a luxury home

Introducing Ownermatch

“Ownermatch provides an innovative formula that cuts the cost of owning a second home or recreational property in half. This is accomplished by facilitating two "well-matched" co-owners, who each provide half the investment capital and half the ongoing ownership costs. They can then each enjoy up to six months "exclusive" use of the property every year according to a pre-determined schedule. Simple, practical and cost-effective. A Win-Win for both parties.”

Read all about it > http://www.ownermatchresorthomes.com/locations/tucson/

It  may be a  Win-Win, as they say, though, with all the complicated personal & money issues involved in such an up close and cozy co-ownership arrangement,
it doesn’t sound the least bit simple and not  at all like fun to me.

And before anyone begins to deal with those sticky issues, now, instead of having to find one buyer for each million$$+ luxury home, two must be found - and yes, the price is half, but you also only get half and you have to check in with your “well matched” co-owner on all decisions. imagine.  How likely is that, two buyers who want half of the same luxury home and who agree on the price and terms and who are willing to share it.  And not just any two buyers, but two  “well matched” buyers, who are able to walk down the aisle together and agree on the  endless decisions that need to be made regarding the big and small details of setting up, owning, maintaining and sharing the house.  Good luck with that!

And this is not a time share– which they may have thought about when dreaming this up - which has many participants and is therefore very impersonal and is more like a permanently reserved hotel room than a cozy and complicated co-ownership arrangement of a large multi-million $$$ home.

Also, Ownermatch may have misconstrued the cause of the poor state of
the high-end market here in the Tucson Foothills.  
It’s not for a lack of high-end buyers, no that’s not it. There are plenty of buyers, it’s just that they’re not willing to pay the prices being asked for many of the high-end homes that are for sale.  So, ironically, the real issue is that there are not enough
well-priced high-end homes to go round.

And the odds of finding two buyers who are both willing to overpay - albeit by only half as much as they would individually - to own half of and share in one overpriced million$$+ home – is, it seems to me, a very unlikely outcome.

But there it is, you decide.

here’s the lowdown on the Tucson Foothills real estate market for October 2011

There are 364 single family homes for sale in the Foothills today,
with 33 sold in October and 86 homes currently in contract.

here’s what it looks like by price range,

Price	# for sale	# sold	# in Contract
$0 - $599	221	23	66
$600 – $999	71	8	9
$1.0 - $1.499	39	2	7
$1.5 – $1.999	16	0	2
$2.0 & up	17	0	2
totals	364	33	86

The average/median and $/sf sale prices for October are >
$468,317/$357,500 @ $152/sf. And the 33 that sold sold at an average of 93.7% of list price.   As compared to October 2010 > $484,361/$440,000 @$167/sf @95.6% of list price. 

 

Months of inventory (moi) is as follows;
foothills overall is 11 months (364 ÷ 33 = 11) which is up (a whopping) 3 months from last month (lower is  better) see > (a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market, 9/29/11)

And when broken down by price range, months of inventory is all over the lot;

$0 – $599 is 9.6 moi (this represents a sudden 50% increase from where this price range has been for some time now)

$600 – $999 is 8.9 moi (way down from last month)

$1.0 – $1.499 is 19 moi (way-way up from last month)

$1.5 – $1.999 the same as last month, no sales and therefore no way to measure months of inventory, let’s just say it’s going to take a while,

$2.0 & up, ditto

 

And finally, what was the impact of distress sales (short sales and foreclosures) on October sales;

> of the 364 homes for sale in the foothills just 9% are listed as distress sales, very small potatoes. 

> BUT, 33% of all the homes that sold were distress sales.
   AND 41% of the homes in contract are distress sales.

So, obviously, buyers love distress sales. Because, even with very limited availability, they’re eagerly snapping them up in numbers that are wildly disproportionate to their availability. Why, because after getting a taste of distress sale prices, they’re hooked. And it’s hard to go back to paying retail and, certainly, they have no taste whatsoever for homes that are still listed at yesterday’s prices. And we have more than a few of those, particularly at the upper-end where, not coincidentally, the market is at its worst.

And, coincidentally, get this;
33 homes also sold last October 2010, really, it must be an October thing, but only 4 of them (12%) were distress sales. In October 2009, 50 sold and 11 were distress sales, 22%.

For comparison here are last months numbers

Thanks for tuning in and let me know if I can help you.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

in the eyes of the beholder

6595 E Celsian Place sold today for $790,000 ($196/sf) off an $825,000 list price.

It sold in 03 for $850,000 and again in 05 for $875,000, and at $790,000 today the sellers did very well – just 9.7% off their 05 purchase price. A drop in the bucket.

When it was listed earlier this year at $879,000 I figured they’d be lucky to get $700k. And I admit it wasn’t my favorite house, but I kept that to myself. I have to, otherwise I get into a tiff with the owners and the listing agent and probably the Tucson Association of Realtors® too. It’s just not worth it, and maybe not fair either. Because in the end it’s just my opinion, and I’m not the one writing the check.

6595 E Celsian Place , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

2 new listings in Cat 10

5260 N Camino Sumo, $1,195,000 ($253/sf)

4635 N PLACITA ROCA BLANCA, $1,249,000 ($275/sf)

That makes it 9 for sale, priced from $875,000 to $1,295,000 for an average list price of $1,098,667

See them all here> 9 in Cat 10

and 4 sold in the last 6 months, from $475,000 to $1,400,000 for an average sold price of $868,250

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

I wonder why this hasn’t sold

3903 E Playa De Coronado, built in 2004 in The Summit at Finger Rock was canceled yesterday after 4+ years on the market, 4 or 5 listing agents and many price cuts. 

It sold in 05 for $807,500 and was listed in 07 for $1,395,000. 
And when It was canceled yesterday it was at $985,000, still 22% higher that its 05 sale price.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

getting it right except for the price

Having another go at it after a year+ recess, 4905 E Mission Hill Drive is back on the market today for $689,000.

Briefly- Mission Hill was purchased in 2005 for $640,000, then nicely renovated and put back on the market less than a year later just as the market was cooling (as a fix-up & flip- remember that craze) for $1,390,000. But no one took the bait and after many price cuts it expired four years later at $699,000.

In 2009 I wrote about it HERE & HERE

And HERE it is as listed today,
(listed by Long Realty)