The Catalina Foothills

had enough of the same old, same old

well step right this way

that’s 8,316 sf to brighten your day, for $825,000

5110 E Calle Barril Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

3rd time’s a charm

Up on Sabino Mountain 7605 E Crested Saguaro, a short sale is in contract for the 3rd time.
I represented a buyer who put it in contract at the beginning of January, that was contract #2. And he bailed on it about 2 weeks ago. And today lucky buyer #3 has signed on the dotted line.  And it’s not surprising either. It’s a 2004 built house, 5,435 sf for $900k ($169/sf) with big mountain views.  A lot of house for the $$$.
7605 E Crested Saguaro Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

And 6290 E PLACITA EL VUELO in Alta Vista was listed earlier this year and then unexpectedly canceled after 3 weeks or so. But a few days later it was listed again with a different agent, and after 25 days it too was canceled.

And now it’s back again with agent # 3 at the helm. And you know what they say,
you want to be the 1st born, the 2nd husband and the 3rd listing agent. We’ll see.

6290 E PLACITA EL VUELO , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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slow and painful

6480 N Regal Manor Drive was listed in April 2008 for $949,000. And now, 4 years later, after having been whittled down to $399,000 ($112/sf) it’s gone to contract as a short sale.
(listed by Realty Executives Tucson Elite 4983)

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another one down in Pima Canyon

1942 E Quiet Canyon Drive sold today for $1,295,000 ($309/sf) after a very civilized 101 days on the market.

1942 E Quiet Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

That makes 5 sold in PC this year with 11 remaining for sale.

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a Joesler goes to contract

Built in 1939 and listed in late December (for Joesler fans)  4905 N Calle Angosta Tucson, AZ 85718  has found that special buyer. Leaving just one Joesler for sale in the foothills.

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to find your Joesler in the Foothills

you can ask whatever you want

Here’s a fascinating look at the starting list price and the eventual sold price, plus Zillow’s valuation, on some of the priciest homes sold in the last couple of years in the Catalina Foothills.  And many of them started out as specs and quite a few ended up as short sales
or foreclosures.

And as you’ll see there’s quite a spread between the initial list price and the eventual sold price. But even more eye opening, in accurately predicting the sale price, Zillow trounces the initial list price by hundreds of thousands, millions even, nearly every time. And the Zestimate price, as shown, reflects the zestimate at the time the house was listed. Be it in 2006, 2007 or whenever. So the zestimate corresponds to the same period when the initial asking price was set.

And, rather than being a handicap, I think the one edge that Zillow does have over many home owners and agents is that their valuations are cold and calculated and emotionless.
They don’t take needs and desires into account, whether they’re personal, financial or just based on what your neighbor got two years ago and you want to get now. And that’s a big plus, because the market doesn’t care one whit about any of that stuff.

(for the two properties marked with a * the zestimate is the closest month to the listing date that a zestimate was available)

where	asked	Zillow says,	got
2123 E Sentry Ridge Ct	$2,750,000	$1,800,000	$1,517,250
2112 E Sentry Ridge Ct	$5,900,000	$1,800,000	$1,765,000
2304 E Sentry Ridge Ct	$4,950,000	$1,500,000	$2,325,000
2162 Sentry Ridge Ct	$2,950,000	$1,600,000*	$1,500,000
7454 N Secret Canyon Dr	$5,000,000	$2,500,000*	$1,850,000
7828 N Ancient Indian Dr	$3,295,000	$2,000,000	$1,660,500
1682 E Sahuaro Blossom Place	$4,200,000	$2,200,000	$1,304,000
1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Place	$3,200,000	$1,700,000	$1,900,000
4647 E Palais Place	$4,450,000	$1,600,000	$1,400,000
6921 E Rock Ledge Place	$4,500,000	$1,700,000	$2,200,000
6959 N Javelina Drive	$4,900,000	$1,868,300	$1,850,000
7049 N Mission Hill Lane	$5,000,000	$1,600,000	$1,650,000
3208 E Via Palomita	$3,200,000	$1,739,400	$1,750,000

And while all of these homes were subsequently reduced and reduced again until they did sell, I’m pretty sure that many of them would have sold a lot quicker and for bigger bucks had they been more reasonably priced to begin with.

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well at least lower priced homes are still flying off the shelf

In the last 2 days 11 homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills. But they’re all priced from $150,000 to $489,000 – at the low end of the market – which has been going great guns for more than a year now. So no worries there.

But not a single contract for the more than 200 homes priced from $490,000 to $15,900,000 – where we really need it.

And the other day I noted; Things were barreling along until about a week ago but now there’s  been a dip in the action, just 12 homes to contract. (in 6 days, and 9 of them topped out at $550k. Then 1 each at $699, $749 and a possible record breaker (once it closes) at $2.995)
But one record breaker does not make the market.

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bad timing & high pricing

Even though it was just a hole in ground in 2007, 2162 E Sentry Ridge Court was listed for $2,800,000 ($612/sf) in January of that year. But it didn’t sell. So after 8 months it was pulled from the market and not relisted until October 08 - when the house was finally completed but the US economy was coming apart. And for reasons that we’ll never know, and who really cares, they bumped the price to $2,950,000. But that didn’t work either.

And to make a long story short, because you’ve heard it all before, it finally sold today for $1,500,000 ($328/sf) from a finally much reduced asking price of $1,550,000. And while the sellers may not agree, at that, I think they did well.

Zillow, meanwhile, pegged it at $1,330,200

This is the last of spec homes to finally sell on Sentry Ridge Court, in Pima Canyon, the street of broken dreams. Amen.

2162 E Sentry Ridge Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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compromise, compromise

6374 N Skyline Ridge Drive in Pinnacle Ridge sold today for $550,000 ($155/sf) -  the 2nd cheapest sale - on a $$/sf basis - of any home ever sold in Pinnacle Ridge. And it’s a good thing too, since 6374 sits adjacent to Skyline Drive on one side and to the entry/exit gate on the other. And let’s face it, being next to the road is not high on anyone’s wish list. Not anyone I know anyway. But if you get it for a really great price, and maybe even get a house that you  couldn’t afford otherwise, then for some people it’s a worthwhile compromise.

6374 N Skyline Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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the rise and fall and rise (maybe) of million $$ home sales

For the period of January 1 thru March 25 for homes listed at $1.0m & up,

12 sold this year  (71 remain for sale)

6 in 2011

11 in 2010

11 in 2009

17 in 2008

15 in 2007

35 in 2006

21 in 2005

12 in 2004

2 in 2003

4 in 2002

4 in 2001

2 in 2000

There were many fewer million $$$ homes in the foothills before 2005 or so. And since then the growth in higher-end homes is largely due to Pima Canyon. It got going in 2001 and over the years it added a couple of hundred high-end homes to the mix, and along the way it put the Tucson Foothills firmly on the map as a destination for luxe living in the southwest.

And the quick success of PC encouraged others, some with talent and ability and some who could barely swing a hammer, to put up high-end homes anywhere they could squeeze one in in the Foothills. And most of it on spec. And then the music stopped and here we are, still trying to work off the excess.

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2 quick sales + a gorgeous remodel that didn’t pan out

‘In Skyline CC, 6660 N Saint Andrews Drive was listed on 2/6, went to contract on 2/14 and closed today for $825,000 ($231/sf) from a $900,000 list price.

Quicker yet, in Cat 10, 4625 N Placita Roca Blanca was listed on 3/6, went to contract on 3/7 and closed today for $1,570,000 ($309/sf) from a $1,595,000 list price.
BTW – the sellers paid $2,595,000 ($561/sf) in Jan 07. YOW!

6660 N Saint Andrews Drive - 4625 N Placita Roca Blanca, Tucson, AZ 85718
Both listed by Long Realty

+

5320 N Calle Bujia sold today for $480,000 from a $499,900 list. But the sellers bought it in 07
for $550,000 and transformed it from this,

 

to this,

and from this,

to this,

and this,

and they did it to every nook and cranny of every room in the house.
And after all that they still ended up selling for $70,000 less than they paid in 07.
Alright the money’s one thing, but the time, work and aggravation,

5320 N Calle Bujia , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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in contract since March 20th

Things were barreling along until about a week ago but now there’s been a dip in the action

just 12 homes in contract, and at the height of the season too

9 from $239,000 to $550,000 (201 remain for sale in this price range)

2 @ $699,000 & $749,000  (78 for sale)

1 @ $2.995m (71 for sale @ $1.0 & up)
 
here’s a link to the previous, more upbeat, contract report >in contract since March 9
or, on the right hand column under CATEGORIES click the latest for all contract reports this year,

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a watershed moment, maybe

After 3 + years 7417 N Secret Canyon Drive, a spec home in the Canyons currently listed at $2,995,000 ($414/sf), has gone to contract. It started out at $4.5 in late 08.

The Canyons, one the priciest patches of dirt in the foothills, has fared worse than others during these last few years.  After millions in price cuts homes in the Canyons are now listed from $2.495 to $7.9 – yet the last sale up there above $2.0 was back in July 2008.

And since then there’ve been just 2 sales in the Canyons, period. One that started at $3.250 and ended four years later at $1.4. And a spec-home turned foreclosure special that started at $5.0 and ended, thanks to mr lender, just two years later at $1.850.

But given that it’s gone to contract listed at $2.995 I’m going to assume that the deal for 7417 is for more than 2mil. But we’ll see. 

7417 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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it’s not just us

For the past two months I’ve talked about and offered some details on the improving real estate market here in the foothills – more homes going to contract more quickly, very low inventory, higher sales and even fewer distress sales. Apparently many cities and towns across the country are seeing similar improvements in their markets. The rising tide …

From WSJ.com

Housing Shows Signs of Life

By NEIL SHAH and NICK TIMIRAOS

Real-estate markets are showing signs of life as falling prices spur buyer demand, lifting home sales and new construction from the depressed levels of the past three years. The spring selling season, traditionally the busiest period of the year, appears to be off to its best start in five years. Sales of existing homes in January and February were at their highest level since 2007, according to data out Wednesday, though sales in February edged down by 0.9% from January on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline in real-estate prices has slowed its pace, making Americans less cautious about spending and potentially more disposed to buy a home. For the first time since 2005, investment in residential real-estate, including home building and renovation, has contributed to U.S. economic output for the past three quarters.

"Housing bottoming is going to surprise a lot of people," said Kenneth Rosen, a housing economist at the University of California, Berkeley. "Housing was pulling us down consistently, quarter after quarter, for years. That was really over in 2011."

Real-estate agents and home builders from Florida to the Midwest and California are reporting more activity as buyers take advantage of prices that are down by one-third from their peak as well as low interest rates that have made housing more affordable than at any time in the last decade.

Buyers such as Jessica Ontiveros are running into bidding wars on properties. In December, she was under contract to buy a one-bedroom condominium in Corona, Calif., for $83,000 with a 10% down payment. However, the property fell out of escrow after Ms. Ontiveros ran into trouble obtaining a mortgage. Last week, she made a $200,000 bid on a three-bedroom home, but the property already had two offers. "I heard buying a home was going to be easy, but anything I can afford, an investor will come in and pay cash for it," said Ms. Ontiveros, a 26-year-old high school Spanish teacher who is living at home. She's anxious because "prices seem to be going up. I check almost every single day."

Read all about it > Housing Shows Signs of Life

PS- if you’ve been waiting for the market to bounce off the bottom, I’d say the wait is over.

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if you missed it the first time

4820 N Via De La Granja is back on the market. Listed in mid January for $895, and dropped to $845, it went to contract last week and is back in play today. It’s a Tyson, but less of a typical looking Tyson than most.

4820 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718 (in Catalina Foothills Estates 10)
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

Cat 10 as well has had a dramatic turnaround from where it was a few years ago.

Currently there are 6 homes for sale from $845k to $1,295,000 – 4 in contract from $894 to $1,595,000 – and 5 sold (last 6 months) from $641k to $1,150,000.

In December 09 there were 15 for sale priced from $1,000,000 to $2,650,000 (four of them were over $2.0mil)  and just 4 sold in the previous 11 months, and all 4 sold for under a million.

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it looks like mid to upper-end buyers are taking a break

Since Saturday just 8 homes have gone to contract, and they’re all priced from $189,000 to $599,000. So not even a mention for the 149 homes priced from $600k to the stratosphere.

a (not so) fun fact-  when was the last time a home sold for $2.0m or more.

a fire sale in Pima Canyon that had been reduced from $4.950 to $2.250 sold as a short sale for $2.325 (a major good deal) in December. And before that it was a house in the Mountain Estates at Ventana. It was on the market for 3 years and over that time was reduced from $4.5 to $2.395 and sold for $2.2 last July. That’s it.

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Zillow’s zestimates & Tucson Foothills homes

Until recently I’ve been very critical of Zillow’s zestimates, terming them useless and worse. Dangerous really, because so often they were so off target, yet people were using them to value their own homes and homes they were interested in buying.

But more recently I’ve noticed that zestimates have improved and are more accurate than they were. And I said so – HERE  But the question is, are they accurate enough to start using them as a guide to home prices here in the foothills.

I’ve gotten some pretty awful ‘professional appraisals’ lately – and many other agents have as well -  and they cost $500 or more, but they’re also way more dangerous than a zestimate. They’re lethal really. Because everyone, including the lender, regards them as the sacred source for reliable home valuations. And often they’re not at all accurate or reliable, and often they’re not even close. And much of that is thanks to the really smart, fair and efficient new system we’re stuck with for choosing appraisers that’s been imposed by Obama-Dodd-Frank. We often end up  with an appraiser who’s never stepped foot in the foothills, or who has barely. Someone who, if you spun them around, couldn’t find their way from Craycroft to Swan without a map and a compass. And that’s who’s been anointed to value the highest dollar transaction of your lifetime. Don’t get me started.

So back to zillow, here’s another look at the actual sold price vs. the zestimate on a dozen homes that sold since March 1 in the Tucson Foothills. And I think zillow’s doing pretty good, but you be the judge,

4927 N Louis River Way Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $385,000
Z – $376,200 (home run)

6745 N Shadow Run Drive Tucson, AZ 85704
sold – $425,000 (btw, sold for list price)
Z - $391,400

6306 N Calle Del Halcon Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $463,100
Z - $464,200 (out of the park)

4750 N Calle Desecada Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $482,500
Z – $354,600 (struck out)

2681 E Miraval Place Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $500,000
Z – $492,400 (home run)

6752 N Altos Primero Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $595,000
Z - $629,900

4949 N Camino Antonio Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $700,000
Z - $1,008,800 oh, if only it were true

6456 N Desert Wind Circle , Tucson, AZ 85750
sold – $925,000
Z - $831,100 (no cigar)

1886 E Quiet Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $950,000
Z – $844,900 (yourrrre out)

5122 N Soledad Primera Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $900,000
Z - $865,200 (triple)

4803 E PLACITA PROVIDA Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $1,010,000
Z - $930,700

1347 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $1,075,000
Z – $1,028,000 (home run)

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in contract since March 9

32 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills

25 from $100,000 to $599,000 (195 remain for sale in this price range)

5 from $689,000 to $999,999  (84 for sale)

2 over a 1 mil, at $1.049  & $1.199 (69 for sale) (2 in 11 days is not so hot)

Including the new contracts noted above and all other existing contracts, there are 148 homes in contract in the foothills today – while 350 remain for sale

- by price range the 148 in contract look like this;
116 priced $0 to $599k
  21 priced $600k to $999,999
  10 priced $1.0 to $1.595 + 1 at $3.395

the March 9th contract report is > HERE 
or, click – the latest - for all the ‘in contract since …’ reports since the beginning of time,
which was sometime in late January,

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6290 E Placita El Vuelo has called it quits,

once again.

It was first listed on Feb 2 for $964,900 by Realty One Group and was canceled 18 days later.
It was listed again on Feb 23, also for $964,900, by Long Realty and was canceled today after 25 days. I have no idea why.

And not to brag, because it was a totally different market back then, but along with a co-listing agent (Honor Walsh) we listed El Vuelo in 2002 for $831,000. And 34 days later it was in contract and sailed thru to COE. The (long gone) good old days.

In Alta Vista - 6290 E Placita El Vuelo Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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waiting for a high-end foreclosure to come along

here are a few that are still working their way through the pipeline;

7898 N Ancient Indian Dr in Pima Canyon was (according to RealtyTrac) foreclosed on March 9th. It was on the market since last May as a short sale starting at $1.2 and left last month at $950k. But it’s official, mr lender now owns it and will presumably be putting it on the market one of these days. In early Feb I mentioned it here > short sales, two steps forward, 3 steps back <

And right down the street 1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place is bank owned but not yet on the market. I wrote about last month >  ready or not, another distress sale for Pima Canyon

And 5025 N Circulo Sobrio, which I thought I’d also mentioned but I can’t find anything on it.
It sold in 2004 for $1,500,000  and was listed in 2010 for $1,725,000 and expired last October at $1,190,000. And it looks like mr lender picked it up in January and is prepping it for a sale.
(zillow says $920,600) that’s more like it.

And across the street in Hacienda del Sol estates 3189 E Corte De Andalucia is still in
pre-foreclosure mode.  The auction on the court house steps has been postponed at least 3 or 4 times. It’s now scheduled for 3/27/2012. Andalucia sold for $1,600,000 in August 05 (seeing it in light of where we are $1.6 is, to put it politely, hard to believe) and was listed for $1,850,000 in Jan 07 (harder still) But no go on that. And it left the market last June as a short sale asking $920,000. And somewhere along the way I’d written an offer for $700k for a client. But that didn’t go anywhere either. As I recall the seller just ignored it. (zillow’s says $786,500)

There’s nothing else that I can find at the high-end.

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a history of the Catalina Foothills

Here’s a good read for a cold, wet Sunday morning – it is here in sunny Tucson -  about the founding and development of the Catalina Foothills Estates by John Murphey in the 1920’s.  

From the Catalina Foothills Association web site;

In the 1920s, John Murphey, a young Tucson builder, began purchasing property north of River Road. Slowly accumulating land, Catalina Foothills Estates gradually took shape.

The development was for ten planned subdivisions, with large lots, often three acres or more. All lots were planned for maximum privacy, making utmost use of the existing desert vegetation and natural terrain and for the preservation of wildlife. In addition to other smaller purchases, in 1928 Murphey bought a 7,000-acre tract of land north of River Road between Oracle Road and Sabino Canyon in a federal land auction.

After the stock market crash the following year, Murphey sought to sell some of this land to an Arizona banker for $10 per acre. The banker refused the offer on the grounds that the land was “worthless.” continue reading  > History of the Catalina Foothills Association

If you’re thinking about buying a home in the Catalina Foothills Estates there’s lots of useful information on the Catalina Foothills Association site

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more Pima Canyon news

yesterday I wrote that more homes are selling in Pima Canyon. And now I see that they’re selling faster too.

After just 2 days on the market 1980 E Desert Garden Drive is in contract. And it wasn’t one of those el cheapo fire sale properties either.

It sold 8 months ago for $950,000 and who knows why, but it was listed 2 days ago for $1,049,000. ($311/sf)  And it’s gone.

 

1980 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

That leaves 11 homes for sale In Pima Cyn + 5 under contract & 9 sold in the last 6 months.  
A dramatic improvement from where things were.

- three years ago it looked pretty grim, there were 26 homes for sale, just 2 sold in 6 months and not a single home under contract -  what's happening in Pima Canyon - (Feb 2009)

- and just a over a year ago I wrote - On the supply side, there are 18 homes for sale in Pima Canyon. On the demand side, 2 homes have sold in PC in the last 6 months - and there’s nothing in contract. looking at Pima Canyon today 

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to find your Pima Canyon  home

more homes are selling in Pima Canyon

Looking at the past 6 months – from mid-September thru today mid-March

9 homes have sold in PC

in the same 6 month period in 2010/2011  2 homes sold

in the same 6 month period in 2009/2010  6 homes sold

and in the same 6 month period in 2008/2009 2 homes sold

So 9 homes sold in the previous 6 months and a total of 10 sold in the same 6 month period during the previous 3 years.

more homes are selling in Pima Canyon 

And they’re selling because many list prices have finally been sharply reduced to reflect current market values. But there are still some holdouts.

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fewer short sales and foreclosures

we’ve never had all that many to begin with, but now there are even less

there are 23 for sale in the foothills today, that’s single family short sales &  foreclosures

last month there were 32

last September there were 44

last February there were 42

June 2010 there were 46 at the beginning of the month and 56 at the end

November 2009 there were 28

Of the 23 for sale today 20 are priced from $174,9000 to $549,000
then 1 each at $760,000, $900,000 and $985,000

slim pickins

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when they get to the right price, they sell

In Pima Canyon, 1347 E Desert Garden Drive was listed for $1.5m last May and after a few cuts got down to $1.195 in January, and promptly went to contract and sold today for $1,075,000. BAM!

But not before giving it the old college try and listing it for $2,600,000 in 2007 and after more than a few cut-cut-cuts throwing in the towel at $1.8 in 09.

That’s why it pays to do your homework. Because every now and then you’ll find a list price that’s more about what the seller would like to get, about what they think their home is worth, than about true market values. Hey, it’s not a perfect world, it happens.

1347 E Desert Garden Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

btw – zillow nailed this one, they zestimated it at $1,032,700

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there goes the neighborhood

first it was 7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive. Last month it sold for $740,000, the cheapest sale in PC in eons – actually in 9 years, and that’s including foreclosures, short sales and tree houses.

And now its neighbor at 7373 N Mystic Canyon Drive just dropped their asking price to $749,000, and who knows what it will sell for, even though it sold for $800,000 11 years ago.
Yes on a gorgeous day in March 2001, a day very much like today though more innocent and care free. 

But not to worry, PC is holding its own. 15 homes sold in there since Jan 1, 2011, 
and they were listed at an average/median of $1,389,127/$1,250,000 and sold at avg./med of
$1,299,882/$1,200,000. So pretty close agreement between list and sold prices. (note of course the list price is the latest list, after being relisted 1, 2 or umpteen times & after all price reductions, rebates and coupons – so we’re seeing the stripped down list price)

Meanwhile there are 12 for sale and they’re listed at an average/median of $1,760,833/$1,497,500 – so still a pretty good size gap between the list price of homes that are selling vs. those still waiting for a buyer to grace their threshold.

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supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

I’ve been going on lately about the tightening supply of homes for sale and thought it would be a good idea to provide some numbers to explain the chatter.

right now there’s a 5.5 month supply of single family homes in the foothills
342 for sale ÷ 62 *sold = 5.5 months, which is considered a balanced market, with happy buyers and sellers (* last 30 days) Yeah Sure.

But as usual it’s quite a different story when broken down by price range;

$0 – $599 is squeaky tight at 3.8 months supply (193 for sale/51 sold)
with buyers now doing battle over the choicest homes

$600 – $999 is bloated at 13 months (78 for sale/6 sold)

$1.0m – $1.499 is 9 months (27 for sale/3 sold)

$1.5m – $1.999 is 11.5 (23 for sale/2 sold)

$2.0m & UP is anyone’s guess (21 for sale/0 sold)

So while the entire foothills is at 5.5 months inventory, that is, as you can see, misleading and due largely to the $0 to $599 range doing as well as it is and pulling the numbers down.
But still, this is a huge improvement from where we’ve been. 

In March 2011 there was a 7.9 month supply (475 for sale/60 sold)
In March 2010 there was a 9.7 months supply (496 for sale/51 sold)
In March 2009 there was a 12.8 month supply (564 for sale/44 sold)
In March 2008 it was 12.2 months (546 for sale/42 sold)

And there have been a slew of homes in the $600k to $1.5m range that have gone to contract in the last few weeks. And when they close, those sales will put an even more cheerful spin on the supply & demand numbers.That is unless you’re a buyer who’s been waiting for more supply and less demand.

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well yes of course you can ask whatever you want

6201 N Whaleback Place did. It sold for $1,195,000 in 2002 and was listed for $1,850,000 in, get this, September 2008. (hello) And, lo and behold, three and half years later, it’s now gone to contract listed at $990,000.  
 
But the parallels with 4411 Camino Sumo, which I wrote about just below this  - it just won’t be the same – are uncanny.
Both started out in late 08 listed between $1,750,000 to $1,850,000, both failed to sell and have been on the market since 08 and both have come down to earth recently and within the last two weeks both cut their prices to the high $900’s, both turning into short sales, and both went to contract yesterday. After 3+ years.

Meanwhile, adding more fuel to the $875,000 to $1,200,000 price range, which is burning a hole in everyone’s pocket

6201 N Whaleback Place, Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

it just won’t be the same

without 4411 Camino Sumo, one of the last of the holdouts for yesterdays prices, it went to contract today after finally getting to today’s prices, $999k as a short sale, following last weeks cut from $1.195.

4411 started out in December 2008 at $1,650,000 and when it didn’t sell they upped it to $1,750,000. You just don’t come across good material like that everyday.

I’ve mentioned it umpteen times over the years, but pretty much the same old story, 4411 playing catch-up with the falling market, but never quite catching up.

And the shame of it is it’s not like it’s a dog of a house, no, it’s a good house in one of the nicest communities in the foothills.

4411 Camino Sumo Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

and btw, this is yet another one for the sweet spot - another one gone

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my, how quickly things change

Phoenix rises from the ashes

From WSJ.com
By NICK TIMIRAOS

Rise in Phoenix Housing Shows Path for Other Cities

PHOENIX—As home prices continue to drop in most cities, a nascent real-estate rebound here holds lessons for the rest of the country.

This sprawling desert metropolis was one of the hardest hit housing markets during the bust. Phoenix home prices declined 55% from 2006 through the end of 2011, and Arizona's foreclosure rate jumped to No. 3 in the nation in 2009. Hundreds of thousands of homeowners are underwater, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth.

Now real-estate economists across the country are studying an early but surprisingly broad Phoenix turnaround. The sharp drop in home prices has brought new buyers into the market. Unlike other markets where housing recoveries have been snuffed out by big overhangs of homes for sale and foreclosed properties, inventories are lean here.

"Phoenix has hit a bottom," says Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist who was one of the first to warn six years ago that prices in overbuilt metros were poised to fall.

The nation's hard-hit housing markets face a tough act: engineering a housing recovery without traditional trade-up buyers, many of whom are either unwilling or unable to sell because of huge price declines.

Phoenix has found a viable formula. Low prices are igniting demand from first-time buyers and investors who are converting the homes to rentals. The local economy is on the upswing with several big employers like Amazon.com Inc. and Intel Corp. hiring again, which is further increasing demand for housing. And the region is benefiting from a surge of buyers from Canada who are using their favorable exchange rate to scoop up bargains in the desert.

Local mom-and-pop investors are also playing key roles in soaking up supply. "I'm running my Realtor ragged looking at properties," said Robert Gerundo, who last month stood inside a two-bedroom condominium, scribbling his signature on an offer to buy the unit for $50,200, slightly above the listing price set by the bank, which recently foreclosed on the unit.

Mr. Gerundo has bought 13 properties in Phoenix in the past two years and rents them out for as little as $950 a month. The 49-year-old, who drives around in a Jaguar with a Rutgers sticker on it, says he is making so much money as a landlord that he quit his job last year in New Jersey as a banker.

Read all about it - Rise in Phoenix Housing Shows Path for Other Cities

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3 down 1 to go

In the last 2 months three homes have gone to contract on Quiet Canyon Drive, the last one went today -  2042 E Quiet Canyon Drive – after almost 2 years on the market. ( the little green one)
(Listed by Long Realty)

 

As you can see two of the three back up directly to old Ina Rd and the 3rd isn’t too far off. 
The star is the one home that remains for sale – and has been for just under one year now.
The issue here is old Ina Rd. And even though traffic on Old Ina is very light it’s still tougher to find a buyer for that locale.  Much tougher. Particularly in the kind of market we’ve had these last few years where buyers have been extremely choosy. So could this be another sign of an improving market, and a market with fewer homes to choose from in this price range. I think so.

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the weekend’s haul

7 11 contracts so far, pretty good, except that 10 of them are huddled in the $100k to $550k range and then 1 at $1,199,000. Meanwhile, the inventory of those for sale spreads out from $159k to $5.2mil, then jumps to $7,900,000 for one house and to $15,900,000 for another.

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what’s the score in Cobblestone

A new listing today - 3420 E Finger Rock Circle $1,295,000 ($336/sf) – brings it to 6 homes
for sale including the big kahuna, Campbell Cliffs weighing in at $15,900,000.  
(both listed by Long Realty)

There’ve been two sales in the last six months – at $1,170,000 ($304/sf) & $1,300,000 ($319/sf) and there’s nothing in contract. So, doing the math, that tells us there is now an 18 month supply of homes in Cobblestone. A hefty supply, unless demand suddenly surges.

But here’s a fun fact – in the last 6 months 289 single family homes sold in the entire Tucson foothills, but just 3 of them sold for $300/sf or more. And two of them were those two sales in Cobblestone. Then one in Ventana at the Mountain Estates. And that’s it. So there.

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in contract since Feb 29

33 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills

24 from $200,000 to $549,900 (195 remain for sale in this price range)

6 from $625,000 to $949,000  (84 for sale)

3 over a mil, at $1.1, $1.195 & $1.595 ((69 for sale)

Including the new contracts noted above and all other existing contracts, there are 147 homes in contract in the foothills today – while 348 remain for sale.

the Feb 29 ‘in contract …’ report is HERE

Enjoy!

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85718 at a glance

First up, the number of listings,
March 2011 -  Feb 2012

 

Next, the Absorption Rate. Another way of saying- months of inventory – MOI - how long it will take to sell all the homes currently on the market at the current rate of sales, assuming no new listings – considered by those in the know to be a key indicator of the health of the market.
Approx 6 months of inventory considered a balance market. We’re dangerously close.

 

And finally, Days on Market (DOM) & Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM).
The difference is that if a home was listed and then taken off the market and then relisted (within 30 days) CDOM includes the accumulated days from the 1st and 2nd listing,  and the 3rd if there is a 3rd, until the time it goes to contract. 
While DOM resets every time a home gets taken off the market and relisted.
Does that make sense.
And notice the rather large gap between CDOM - the real indicator of how long it’s taken for homes to sell - and the-pie-in-the-sky DOM. Though that too has narrowed in the last few months.

 

As you can see everything is trending down (which in this case is not necessarily a bad thing, though it would be nice to have a few more listings to choose from) – there’s less inventory, the absorption rate is down and CDOM has recovered from those sluggish days of late last summer.

These charts are showing us that the market is improving, getting stronger - (though how you see it may depend on whether you’re a buyer or a seller) - lower inventory puts sellers in a stronger position and buyers in a weaker one. 

And little by little it is becoming less of a buyers market and more of a balanced market.
Then what.

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listed yesterday at $1,595,000 and today it’s in contract

That’s 4625 N Placita Roca Blanca in Cat 10. A fabulous Mediterranean, done to the 9’s, that sold for $2,595,000 in 07 and was listed yesterday for $1,595,000 ($314/sf). A great house at a very good price.

I saw it yesterday afternoon at 5, just an hour after it came on. And I immediately called an out of town client of mine, left them a message, and emailed the listing. I’m sure it would have been a perfect fit. But we didn’t connect until today, and even if they’d been able to just drop everything and jump on a plane, and really who can, it still would have been too late.
This evening I got a call from the listing agent that they had an accepted offer. After 24 hours.

Homes like this are very few and far between and there are plenty of buyers lined up and waiting to pounce.

4625 N Placita Roca Blanca Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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another one gone

On the market four months and listed at $1,195,000, and no price cuts, 5260 N Camino Sumo today joins the “under contract at $875 to $1.2 mil” sweet spot.

These are the homes that buyers in that range are buying > 14 under contract + 1 sold < meanwhile, the supply is dwindling 

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big doin’s in Foothills ll

7155 N Finger Rock Place sold today for $1,795,000 ($285/sf). And it went pretty quick too. 
Listed in November (that’s November 2011) for $1,980,000 it was in contract two months later.

And, this is the 3rd highest sale ever in Foothills ll & the 2nd highest sale in the entire Foothills in the last 6 months.

In Foothills ll, 7164 N Mercer Spring sold for $1,900,000 in 2007 & 3601 E Lone Hill Place nosed out Finger Rock for 2nd place with a $1,800,000 sale in 2010.

There are also two homes in contract in Foothills ll, at $1,195,000 & $895,000.

7155 N Finger Rock Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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make that 14 in contract

The other day I talked about the increasing activity in the sweet spot that is the $875k to $1.2 mil price range - 13 in contract and 8 sold since Jan 1 

5221 N Rock Canyon Road Tucson, AZ 85750, listed at $899,000 ($282/sf), today, joins those in contract.

5221 N Rock Canyon Road , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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trouble in paradise

Unlike much of the Tucson Foothills market, which lately has shown some encouraging signs of life, at $2 mil + it is deadsville. Well, that is, except for the occasional fire sale.

And there’ve been just two such fire sales in the last six months.
And both closed in December and both were deeply discounted short sales. One went for $1,400,000 from a one-time high of $4,450,000. The other for $2,325,000, from an original list of $4,950,000. But that’s it, except of course for the 20 homes for sale at $2 mil +, more than a few of which have been at it for two or three or more years. How much longer can that go on.

And apparently we’re not alone in this high-end mess. According to Realtytrac since 2007 foreclosure activity for homes valued at more than $2 million  jumped by 273%. 
Meanwhile, the share of foreclosures on mid-range properties valued between $500,000 and $1 million fell by 21%

But there may still be time because according to the Wall Street Journal lenders are slower to foreclose on higher priced homes -  For the Costliest Homes, Foreclosure Comes Slowly 
But time for what I’m not sure.

There are several reasons why holders of large mortgages are able to stay in place longer. A key factor is that banks tend to keep larger mortgages on their books, while smaller mortgages are more likely to be bundled into securities and later resold to investors with backing from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie and Freddie, the government-controlled mortgage giants, have set strict foreclosure timelines and will fine mortgage servicers that are found to be needlessly delaying the foreclosure process.

Mortgage companies may also be more flexible with borrowers because they may have more assets and better prospects of recovering. "The banks have hope for the wealthy—of future employment, additional income or bonuses as the market comes back," says Genevieve Salvatore, a Connecticut real-estate lawyer who represents delinquent borrowers as part of her practice.

Economists say banks are also more reluctant to foreclose on high-end properties because they are expensive to maintain and take longer to sell.

What's more, wealthier borrowers tend to be more sophisticated at stalling foreclosure by hiring attorneys. "It's cheaper to pay a monthly retainer to a lawyer than a $20,000 mortgage payment on an underwater loan," says Christopher Fountain, a Greenwich, Conn., real-estate broker.

Private-equity investor Paul Parmar lives in a 40,000-square-foot mansion in Colts Neck, N.J. His estate boasts a putting green, two bowling lanes and a Bali-esque "beach" with Tiki huts and sand. He also has a $23.7 million mortgage with Deutsche Bank, which hasn't received a payment from Mr. Parmar in nearly three years.

Despite Deutsche Bank's efforts to remove him, Mr. Parmar has remained in his compound while fighting the bank in a protracted legal battle.

Mr. Parmar had fought a foreclosure ruling by a state Supreme Court judge in favor of Deutsche Bank, claiming in court papers that the bank improperly handled the foreclosure proceedings.

Mr. Parmar says he initially stopped making mortgage payments of more than $54,000 a month because of another, unrelated business dispute, which he says froze his assets and bank accounts. When the dispute was resolved last fall, he deposited into escrow the more than $2 million he says Deutsche Bank requested to cover his mortgage payments, taxes, fees and Deutsche Bank expenses, court filings show.

Mr. Parmar says his settlement with Deutsche Bank will be filed with the court within the next week. "I've agreed to pay each and every dollar they asked for," he says.
_____________________________________________________________________

High-end defaults are much in the news lately – so while we’re at it here’s one last piece from CNNMoney.com

'How we're losing our multi-million dollar home'

Meanwhile other expenses were also piling up, including the couple's mortgage payment, which was more than $7,000 a month. They had gone to their lender, CitiMortgage, to ask them to modify the mortgage on their home, which was then valued at $3 million. But the bank refused.

Eventually, the Buchanans just stopped paying their mortgage. John said he hoped it would get the bank's attention. It has been almost 30 months since they last made a payment, meaning the couple is more than $210,000 behind on their mortgage.
____________________________________________________________________

the sweet spot

listed at $1,100,000 and reported in contract today, 3413 E Via Palomita joins a growing list of homes that are in contract and recently sold in the increasingly popular $875k to $1.2m price range - 13 in contract and 8 sold since Jan 1, and that’s pretty good.

Including some, quite frankly, that I’d pegged as looong shots.

3413 E Via Palomita Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc)

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Real estate agents who look out for their client’s best interests instead of their own

Believe it or not it happens. There are plenty of good agents who look out for their client’s best interests. I know, because I know more than a few of them.

From the Chicago Tribune

Sometimes, real estate agents just say 'no'

Real estate agents should never talk clients into buying a property. But every so often, they talk their folks out of buying one.

Perhaps the would-be buyers don't realize the place is in a tough neighborhood. Maybe the price is just too high for the area. Or possibly the client isn't giving enough thought to the resale value several years down the road.

Whatever the reason, it's not always about the money.

"It's not about the sale to me," says Joan Patterson, of Keller Williams Realty in Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. "It's about integrity. I want my clients happy so I can sleep at night."

_____________________________________________________________________

When we start working together I usually tell my clients not to be surprised if I end up 
pointing out more negative issues about the homes we see than positive ones. And that’s what usually happens. And that’s a good thing. 

Because a lot of my clients come here from somewhere else and they don’t know much about the foothills or about homes in the foothills and what it’s like living in the desert. And they depend on me to guide them through it. And I do my best to do that.

A client recently sent me list of 18 homes they picked out online that they thought looked like possibilities. And I went through it and advised them against more than half of them right off the bat, because of a variety of issues. And these are usually things that can’t be fixed, like a not so good location or being the most expensive, or nearly so, house on the block. Or even a west facing backyard. And, often, when I tell someone from Chicago or Minneapolis what happens with a west facing backyard in the late afternoon in the summer, they look at me like, OK, you’re kidding right, what’s the punch line.

No punch line, not yet anyway. That comes at about at 5:30 PM in July when you’re trying to enjoy your beautiful west facing backyard and the sun is broiling you to a crisp.

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February home sales

In February we’re just getting into the swing of our season here in the foothills. We’re seeing sales from deals that were made in December and January, which are both so-so months for deal making. But now through June are our busiest months, so there’ll be no more excuses. 

here’s a look at how this February measures up to past Februarys  
(for January sales, see - January home sales in the Tucson Foothills <

Feb 2012
53 sold
median sale price – $368,000 

Feb 2011
55 sold
median sale price – $350,000

Feb 2010
33 sold
median sale price – $483,500

Feb 2009
43 sold
median sale price – $485,000

Feb 2008
30 sold
median sale price – $565,000

Feb 2007
37 sold
median sale price – $525,000

Feb 2006
65 sold
median sale price – $535,000

Feb 2005
78 sold
median sale price – $505,077

Feb 2004
54 sold
median sale price - $386,000

Feb 2003
65 sold
median sale price – $350,000

hip-hip hooray, this February posted the first increase in median prices since Feb 2008. 
And that puts us somewhere between where prices were in 2003 – 2004. Isn’t that comforting.

And yes, very recently we’ve seen an increase in activity. But the vast majority of it is being driven by sharply lower prices. And also, I think, by some pent up demand. But, in addition to what I see happening in the marketplace, my own experience with buyers tells me that while they are much less concerned than they were about prices falling further, they are still very concerned that homes be priced right. 

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another good one’s gone

In the old foothills, 2321 E Calle Lustre, listed $949,000 went to contract today.

I’d seen it, liked it a lot and mentioned it here last month > a Joesler, transformed

2321 E Calle Lustre Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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and then there were none

Yesterday I talked about Pinnacle Ridge and how its fortunes have changed from one year ago.
> then and now in Pinnacle Ridge, aka Paloma Canyon <

Sales are up and supply is down to just 1 home for sale,

No more, that home is now in contract as well and there’s nothing for sale,

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